Matt Severance
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 07/24 | 6:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -125
ANALYSIS: Seems a solid price on the Phils, who are pretty darn good at home. Checking the lineups (this is why you won't see my NFL/NCAAF picks early in weeks; I'm always going to wait), it appears every key Philadelphia player is in there. Braves starter Drew Smyly is meh and has a 6.75 ERA vs. the Phillies this year in 9.1 innings. Vincent "don't call me Vega -- Royale with cheese!" Velasquez was very good in his lone 2021 start against Atlanta.
N.Y. YANKEES @ BOSTON | 07/24 | 4:05 PM EDT
BOSTON -172
ANALYSIS: Little bit bigger price than I would prefer, but New York pitcher Jameson Taillon (5-4, 4.60) just isn't the same guy on the road (1-3, 7.20). Also, no Gary Sanchez in the lineup. The Red Sox's Nathan Eovaldi is the only Boston pitcher since divisional play began (1969) to throw at least five innings and allow one or fewer runs in seven straight starts vs. AL East teams. Bit of a throwaway stat, but I like it. More important, he has a 1.45 ERA in three outings this year vs. NYY.