Ian Parker
UFC
Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Thiago Moises (+475): Makhachev (best bet)
Riding a three-fight win streak, Thiago Moises will be competing in his first main event against the highly touted Islam Makhachev. Moises, who is known for his Jiu-Jitsu, has shown a tremendous amount of improvement in his striking. He will need to bring his "A" game and make few mistakes if he hopes to pull off the huge upset. Makhachev will be the better striker and wrestler and he will look to use those tools to control Moises. Look for the wrestling of Makhachev to neutralize the ground game of Moises en route to victory.
Meisha Tate (-135) vs. Marion Reneau (+115): Tate (best bet)
Entering the final fight of her career, Marion Reneau has lost her last four and hopes to end on a high note. Standing in her way will be former champion Miesha Tate. Tate is the better striker, but where she will have the biggest advantage will be on the ground. Look for Tate to close the distance, use her wrestling to get Reneau to the floor and control the fight.
Gabriel Benitez (-170) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+150) Benitez (best bet)
A potential Fight of the Night candidate, we have our classic Striker vs Grappler battle. Billy Quarantillo is coming off a tough decision loss to Gavin Tucker in his last outing. Quarantillo has an endless gas tank and an excellent ground game as well. In order to get the win, Quarantillo will need to drag this fight into deep waters and try to control Benitez on the ground. However, I don't see that happening. Benitez will be the better striker with devastating kicks that will slow down Quarantillo and keep him at a distance.
Daniel Rodriguez (-255) vs. Preston Parsons (+215) Rodriguez (best bet)
Daniel Rodriguez is coming off his biggest win to date, defeating resilient veteran Mike Perry. He will be taking on newcomer Preston Parsons, who will be looking to test Rodriguez's takedown defense. Look for Rodriguez to use his striking to keep Parsons at a distance and avoid going to the ground. If he keeps the fight standing, Rodriguez is the better striker and should be able to get it done.
Miles Johns (-180) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+160): Johns (best bet)
This should be a showcase fight for Miles Johns. A highly touted prospect, he got himself back in the win column in his last fight with an impressive knockout. Look for Johns to be the better striker and lean on his wrestling if needed. As long as he steers clear of the guillotine choke of Santos, he should cruise to victory.
Mateusz Gamrot (-220) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+190): Gamrot (lean)
Over his last five fights, Jeremy Stephens has lost four of them with one no-contest. Unfortunately for Stephens, this matchup against Mateusz Gamrot will not be any easier. Stephens will have to avoid the wrestling of Gamrot and do everything he can to turn this fight into a brawl and hope to land the power shot. Look for Gamrot to do the exact opposite. He will stay composed and use his strikes to set up his wrestling and avoid the brawl. I expect Gamrot to control the pace and get the win over the tough veteran Stephens.
Rodolfo Vieira (-215) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+185): Vieira (lean)
Rodolfo Vieira is returning to the octagon after suffering his first loss at the hands of Anthony Hernandez. He was dominating until he gassed out. As long as he can get the fight to the ground quickly and has improved cardio, this should be a bounce-back win for Vieira in a big way.
Khalid Taha (-165) vs. Sergey Morozov (+145): Taha (lean)
Both Taha and Morozov are coming off losses. Taha will be the faster and better striker. Look for Taha to avoid the early takedown attempts of Morozov and pick him apart and get the victory.
Francisco Figueredo vs Malcolm Gordon: Figueredo (lean)
Coming off his second loss in a row, Malcom Gordon is in a must-win situation against Francisco Figueredo. Unfortunately for Gordon, Figueredo is better everywhere and can dictate where the fight goes. Look for Figueredo to eventually get this fight to floor and fish for submissions while controlling Gordon throughout.
UFC
Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Thiago Moises (+475): Makhachev (best bet)
Riding a three-fight win streak, Thiago Moises will be competing in his first main event against the highly touted Islam Makhachev. Moises, who is known for his Jiu-Jitsu, has shown a tremendous amount of improvement in his striking. He will need to bring his "A" game and make few mistakes if he hopes to pull off the huge upset. Makhachev will be the better striker and wrestler and he will look to use those tools to control Moises. Look for the wrestling of Makhachev to neutralize the ground game of Moises en route to victory.
Meisha Tate (-135) vs. Marion Reneau (+115): Tate (best bet)
Entering the final fight of her career, Marion Reneau has lost her last four and hopes to end on a high note. Standing in her way will be former champion Miesha Tate. Tate is the better striker, but where she will have the biggest advantage will be on the ground. Look for Tate to close the distance, use her wrestling to get Reneau to the floor and control the fight.
Gabriel Benitez (-170) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+150) Benitez (best bet)
A potential Fight of the Night candidate, we have our classic Striker vs Grappler battle. Billy Quarantillo is coming off a tough decision loss to Gavin Tucker in his last outing. Quarantillo has an endless gas tank and an excellent ground game as well. In order to get the win, Quarantillo will need to drag this fight into deep waters and try to control Benitez on the ground. However, I don't see that happening. Benitez will be the better striker with devastating kicks that will slow down Quarantillo and keep him at a distance.
Daniel Rodriguez (-255) vs. Preston Parsons (+215) Rodriguez (best bet)
Daniel Rodriguez is coming off his biggest win to date, defeating resilient veteran Mike Perry. He will be taking on newcomer Preston Parsons, who will be looking to test Rodriguez's takedown defense. Look for Rodriguez to use his striking to keep Parsons at a distance and avoid going to the ground. If he keeps the fight standing, Rodriguez is the better striker and should be able to get it done.
Miles Johns (-180) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+160): Johns (best bet)
This should be a showcase fight for Miles Johns. A highly touted prospect, he got himself back in the win column in his last fight with an impressive knockout. Look for Johns to be the better striker and lean on his wrestling if needed. As long as he steers clear of the guillotine choke of Santos, he should cruise to victory.
Mateusz Gamrot (-220) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+190): Gamrot (lean)
Over his last five fights, Jeremy Stephens has lost four of them with one no-contest. Unfortunately for Stephens, this matchup against Mateusz Gamrot will not be any easier. Stephens will have to avoid the wrestling of Gamrot and do everything he can to turn this fight into a brawl and hope to land the power shot. Look for Gamrot to do the exact opposite. He will stay composed and use his strikes to set up his wrestling and avoid the brawl. I expect Gamrot to control the pace and get the win over the tough veteran Stephens.
Rodolfo Vieira (-215) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+185): Vieira (lean)
Rodolfo Vieira is returning to the octagon after suffering his first loss at the hands of Anthony Hernandez. He was dominating until he gassed out. As long as he can get the fight to the ground quickly and has improved cardio, this should be a bounce-back win for Vieira in a big way.
Khalid Taha (-165) vs. Sergey Morozov (+145): Taha (lean)
Both Taha and Morozov are coming off losses. Taha will be the faster and better striker. Look for Taha to avoid the early takedown attempts of Morozov and pick him apart and get the victory.
Francisco Figueredo vs Malcolm Gordon: Figueredo (lean)
Coming off his second loss in a row, Malcom Gordon is in a must-win situation against Francisco Figueredo. Unfortunately for Gordon, Figueredo is better everywhere and can dictate where the fight goes. Look for Figueredo to eventually get this fight to floor and fish for submissions while controlling Gordon throughout.
Kyle Marley
UFC
Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Thiago Moises (+475)
This seems like a submission or bust fight for Moises. Makhachev is like a little Khabib and he most likely will maul Moises here and win a dominant decision. Usually, I think Makhachev's opponent will have a striking edge and they have to avoid the ground, but he might even be the better striker in this matchup too. I don't see Moises having any success wresting himself, so he probably needs a submission from the bottom, and I don't see that happening.
(Pick is Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision)
Meisha Tate (-135) vs. Marion Reneau (+115)
Tate is making her return after almost a five-year layoff. This is a great return matchup for her though because Reneau is 44 years old now and coming off four straight losses. Reneau should have the boxing edge in his fight, but she has been taken down in her last 10 fights and that is how I see Tate winning this fight. I think Tate can win at least two rounds with her wrestling here and she is live for a submission as well. It's hard knowing what we will get from her after this long layoff, but she looks to be in very good shape and it's favorite or pass for me in this one.
(Pick is Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision)
Mateusz Gamrot (-220) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+190)
I am going to lean with Gamrot in this one because of his wrestling. He is the more well-rounded fighter here and he has more ways to win this fight. Stephens is primarily a striker, and he is going to be looking to take Gamrot's head off from the opening bell. I do think the striking will be pretty close here but a takedown or two should really put the stamp on the rounds for Gamrot.
(Pick is Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision)
Rodolfo Vieira (-215) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+185)
Vieira is one of the best submission fighters in the UFC. However, he gassed out badly in just the first round of his last fight and he was submitted himself in the third. That is going to be a real worry for him moving forward and maybe taking his submission prop is always the way to bet him. Stoltzfus is pretty well-rounded, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who will really push the pace on Vieira to gas him out where he has nothing left to offer. I do expect Vieira to dominate the first round but after that, it might be a big sweat if he doesn't get a finish.
(Pick is Rodolfo Vieira via Submission)
Gabriel Benitez (-170) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+150)
This should be a fun fight. Billy Q is a late starter so I do expect Benitez to win the first round, but he does pick up the pace as the fight moves along and I could see him taking rounds 2 and 3. He is a well-rounded fighter, and he can land at a higher pace on the feet or look to get the fight to the mat and win rounds or try to lock up a submission there. I do think this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line so I will take Quarantillo.
(Pick is Billy Quarantillo via Split Decision)
Daniel Rodriguez (-255) vs. Preston Parsons (+215)
Parsons is stepping up on late notice here to make his UFC debut and he has nine wins, all of which are submissions in the first or second round of the fight. Rodriguez looks to be well-rounded, but I really like his boxing and that is where he needs to keep this fight because he should dominate on the feet. Parsons is live if he can get takedowns in this matchup, but I don't care for his wrestling enough to trust that he can do that and all I think he offers on the feet are some nice leg kicks. Give me Rodriguez by knockout.
(Pick is Daniel Rodriguez via (T)KO)
Amanda Lemos (-500) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+400)
This is a striker vs. grappler matchup for the most part. Lemos should be the far superior striker in this matchup, and she has a decent ground game herself. Ruiz will have to purely rely on takedowns and submission attempts here because I don't think she has any real chance on the feet. Give me Lemos to stuff takedowns and get a referee stoppage.
(Pick is Amanda Lemos via (T)KO)
Khalid Taha (-165) vs. Sergey Morozov (+145)
Taha is a decent striker, but he is mainly a power puncher who looks to knock his opponents' head off. He isn't high paced though and he also won't be looking to get the fight to the mat. Morozov is the more well-rounded striker though and he is the guy I would favor on the ground as well. If he can avoid the big KO shots from Taha, I think Morozov takes this fight on the judges' scorecards.
(Pick is Sergey Morozov via Unanimous Decision)
Miles Johns (-180) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+160)
Dos Santos is dangerous, and he can finish this fight anywhere. Johns will have a wrestling edge and the cardio edge as well. He doesn't wrestle much though and he isn't a high-paced striker to slow Dos Santos down unless he takes an early beating from him and Dos Santos gasses from that. I think this is a dog or pass fight so give me ADS to get a finish.
(Pick is Anderson Dos Santos ITD)
Francisco Figueiredo (-290) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+245)
Gordon isn't a bad offensive fighter, but he cannot take a punch and I don't know that he can have any success getting this fight to the mat. I think Figueredo is better everywhere here, but I will take him to get a knockout because of Gordon's weak chin.
(Pick is Francisco Figueiredo via (T)KO)
Rodrigo Nascimento (-340) vs. Alan Baudot (+280)
Baudot really has no business being in the UFC. He got a KO win over an 0-2 guy three years ago but that is his only real win in the last four years and he has been dominated in his other three fights since then. Aside from a lucky KO shot, I don't see how he wins this fight. Nascimento is better everywhere, and I think he finishes Baudot pretty early in this fight.
(Pick is Rodrigo Nascimento ITD)
UFC
Islam Makhachev (-650) vs. Thiago Moises (+475)
This seems like a submission or bust fight for Moises. Makhachev is like a little Khabib and he most likely will maul Moises here and win a dominant decision. Usually, I think Makhachev's opponent will have a striking edge and they have to avoid the ground, but he might even be the better striker in this matchup too. I don't see Moises having any success wresting himself, so he probably needs a submission from the bottom, and I don't see that happening.
(Pick is Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision)
Meisha Tate (-135) vs. Marion Reneau (+115)
Tate is making her return after almost a five-year layoff. This is a great return matchup for her though because Reneau is 44 years old now and coming off four straight losses. Reneau should have the boxing edge in his fight, but she has been taken down in her last 10 fights and that is how I see Tate winning this fight. I think Tate can win at least two rounds with her wrestling here and she is live for a submission as well. It's hard knowing what we will get from her after this long layoff, but she looks to be in very good shape and it's favorite or pass for me in this one.
(Pick is Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision)
Mateusz Gamrot (-220) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+190)
I am going to lean with Gamrot in this one because of his wrestling. He is the more well-rounded fighter here and he has more ways to win this fight. Stephens is primarily a striker, and he is going to be looking to take Gamrot's head off from the opening bell. I do think the striking will be pretty close here but a takedown or two should really put the stamp on the rounds for Gamrot.
(Pick is Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision)
Rodolfo Vieira (-215) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+185)
Vieira is one of the best submission fighters in the UFC. However, he gassed out badly in just the first round of his last fight and he was submitted himself in the third. That is going to be a real worry for him moving forward and maybe taking his submission prop is always the way to bet him. Stoltzfus is pretty well-rounded, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who will really push the pace on Vieira to gas him out where he has nothing left to offer. I do expect Vieira to dominate the first round but after that, it might be a big sweat if he doesn't get a finish.
(Pick is Rodolfo Vieira via Submission)
Gabriel Benitez (-170) vs. Billy Quarantillo (+150)
This should be a fun fight. Billy Q is a late starter so I do expect Benitez to win the first round, but he does pick up the pace as the fight moves along and I could see him taking rounds 2 and 3. He is a well-rounded fighter, and he can land at a higher pace on the feet or look to get the fight to the mat and win rounds or try to lock up a submission there. I do think this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line so I will take Quarantillo.
(Pick is Billy Quarantillo via Split Decision)
Daniel Rodriguez (-255) vs. Preston Parsons (+215)
Parsons is stepping up on late notice here to make his UFC debut and he has nine wins, all of which are submissions in the first or second round of the fight. Rodriguez looks to be well-rounded, but I really like his boxing and that is where he needs to keep this fight because he should dominate on the feet. Parsons is live if he can get takedowns in this matchup, but I don't care for his wrestling enough to trust that he can do that and all I think he offers on the feet are some nice leg kicks. Give me Rodriguez by knockout.
(Pick is Daniel Rodriguez via (T)KO)
Amanda Lemos (-500) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+400)
This is a striker vs. grappler matchup for the most part. Lemos should be the far superior striker in this matchup, and she has a decent ground game herself. Ruiz will have to purely rely on takedowns and submission attempts here because I don't think she has any real chance on the feet. Give me Lemos to stuff takedowns and get a referee stoppage.
(Pick is Amanda Lemos via (T)KO)
Khalid Taha (-165) vs. Sergey Morozov (+145)
Taha is a decent striker, but he is mainly a power puncher who looks to knock his opponents' head off. He isn't high paced though and he also won't be looking to get the fight to the mat. Morozov is the more well-rounded striker though and he is the guy I would favor on the ground as well. If he can avoid the big KO shots from Taha, I think Morozov takes this fight on the judges' scorecards.
(Pick is Sergey Morozov via Unanimous Decision)
Miles Johns (-180) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+160)
Dos Santos is dangerous, and he can finish this fight anywhere. Johns will have a wrestling edge and the cardio edge as well. He doesn't wrestle much though and he isn't a high-paced striker to slow Dos Santos down unless he takes an early beating from him and Dos Santos gasses from that. I think this is a dog or pass fight so give me ADS to get a finish.
(Pick is Anderson Dos Santos ITD)
Francisco Figueiredo (-290) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+245)
Gordon isn't a bad offensive fighter, but he cannot take a punch and I don't know that he can have any success getting this fight to the mat. I think Figueredo is better everywhere here, but I will take him to get a knockout because of Gordon's weak chin.
(Pick is Francisco Figueiredo via (T)KO)
Rodrigo Nascimento (-340) vs. Alan Baudot (+280)
Baudot really has no business being in the UFC. He got a KO win over an 0-2 guy three years ago but that is his only real win in the last four years and he has been dominated in his other three fights since then. Aside from a lucky KO shot, I don't see how he wins this fight. Nascimento is better everywhere, and I think he finishes Baudot pretty early in this fight.
(Pick is Rodrigo Nascimento ITD)
