Kyle Marley
Conor McGregor (-115) vs. Dustin Poirier (-105): McGregor by (T)KO
I can't wait for this rubber match. Both guys have been KO'd once and now they settle it in the trilogy. The calf kicks from Poirier are really what changed the second fight and McGregor has to be the one to adjust to stop those, or else the same thing probably happens. Poirier is the one with the better cardio and if he can add on a banged up leg to McGregor, then he will just take over as the fight moves along. McGregor looked like the sharper striker though, until the KO and if he does adjust to the leg kicks, then I think he can get the KO here. Five rounds of cardio could be an issue as well, but I think McGregor will be lighter on his feet in this matchup and throw calf kicks of his own. I am going to lean with him to get the job done, but I like the TKO prop for a better line.
Stephen Thompson (-155) vs. Gilbert Burns (+130): Thompson by unanimous decision
I really love the output from Thompson in his last two fights. He set a personal best in significant strikes in both of those fights, and he landed 309 total between the two. As long as he keeps up the high volume, then I think the only way Burns can beat him on the feet would be a knockout. Burns is a dangerous grappler though, and that is what he should be looking to do in this fight. If he can get the fight to the mat, he is live for a submission and can also use takedowns to try and help win rounds. If it wasn't for those last two Thompson fights, then I would probably take Burns here. Thompson looks too good right now though, and I think he is able to keep this fight on the feet and use his striking and movement to win on the scorecards.
Tai Tuivasa (-135) vs. Greg Hardy (+115): Hardy by split decision
This is a close fight that should be a pure striking match. Both guys have power and can end this fight early with a knockout. I have been going back and forth on this one though, because picking who gets the KO is a coin flip and I think it will be a very close fight if it goes the distance. Right now, I am going to lean with Hardy because he is the bigger, taller, more athletic fighter and he is the underdog.
Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+100): Aldana by unanimous decision
I think Aldana is the clear better striker in this matchup, and she is the higher output striker as well. Kunitskaya needs to make this more of a dirty fight and try to get the win in the clinch or the mat. I will side with Aldana because I think she can stay upright long enough to win at least two rounds.
Sean O'Malley (-400) vs. Louis Smolka (+310): O'Malley by unanimous decision
This should be a fun fight, but I do think it's a bad matchup for Smolka. O'Malley is the faster and more dangerous striker and I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet. The ground could be interesting though and I do think Smolka should have a grappling-based game plan here so we can see how good O'Malley is off his back. I don't see any value in this line, but Sugar Sean is going to be the pick.
Max Griffin (-190) vs. Carlos Condit (+160): Condit by unanimous decision
I think this fight is closer than the line indicates. Condit isn't the same guy he used to be, but if he was, then he would be a huge favorite here. I don't know that he has fallen off enough to be lined at 40 percent against Max Griffin. Griffin isn't special anywhere and I think Condit can beat him on the feet or the mat. I don't think it will be easy, but I see Condit being slightly up on volume and I am going to take him to win a close fight on the scorecards.
Michel Pereira (-160) vs. Niko Price (+135): Price by unanimous decision
It's hard to trust either one of these guys, but I like what I have seen from Price lately with his volume and I don't really understand this line. I think Price is the better fighter of the two. Either of them can land a big KO but I slightly favor Price in this matchup. He can win it anywhere the fight goes.
Trevin Giles (-110) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-110): Giles by unanimous decision
I am not sold at all on Du Plessis. He has big KO power, nice guillotines and RNCs. That's really it. I do give him the edge in those three things in this fight as well, and if he wins it will probably be a finish with one of those. I am going to take Giles to be the aggressor and the one landing the better strikes and takedowns and he can win a decision or get a finish himself.
Ilia Topuria (-225) vs. Ryan Hall (+180): Topuria by (T)KO
This is submission or bust for Hall and maybe even an ankle/leg lock or bust. Topuria is the better fighter everywhere here and he is a legit fighter who can contend for the title one day. Hall is just a tricky fighter, and he will dive across the cage trying to grab an ankle, and if he gets it then he can win fast. I think Topuria passes the test here, though, and I will take him to get a knockout.
Jennifer Maia (-195) vs. Jessica Eye (+165): Eye by split decision
I do agree with Maia being favored here and she is the better all-around mixed martial artist. I just don't see her having a 2-1 edge here because I think this fight mainly takes place on the feet and I see it being very close, if that is the case. Maia would be smart to mix in takedowns and not give Eye a pure striking match, but I am going to side with Eye because this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line.
Brad Tavares (-165) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+140): Tavares by unanimous decision
I favor Tavares on the feet and Akhmedov on the ground in this matchup. I don't think Akhmedov will submit Tavares, though, and I don't know that he has the cardio to win two rounds with takedowns because Tavares has a good get-up game. I do think the first half of this fight will be close and maybe Akhmedov does win round 1, but I like Tavares to pull away and win rounds 2 and 3 after Omari slows down and is less effective with takedowns.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-360) vs. Jerome Rivera (+280): Zhumagulov by unanimous decision
I don't think I would pick Rivera over anybody, so I am going to side with Zhumagulov here. Rivera mainly just spams kicks on the feet and it's his submission game that is actually dangerous. It's only dangerous in top control though and he isn't a good wrestler to rely on him getting even one takedown. I'm going to take Zhumagulov to avoid takedowns and just pick Rivera apart for a decision win.
Alen Amedovski (-175) vs. Hu Yaozong (+150): Yaozong by unanimous decision
I don't want to pick either one of these guys, but it's dog or pass, so I will lean with Yaozong. He is only 26 years old and should be improving each time out and Amedovski looks to be a KO or bust type fighter at 33 years old. No way would I lay that juice on Amedovski so give me Yaozong to avoid the KO shot and work his way to a decision victory.
