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Saturday 9/30/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Dr BOb
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin has struggled to run the ball in recent seasons but the Badgers appear to have found their next great running back in freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has 438 yards in his first 3 games while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per run. With a good ground game the Badgers’ play-action passes are even more effective and soph quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been incredibly efficient in completing 70% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass play. Wisconsin is very good offensively if Taylor is indeed the real deal and Northwestern’s mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) doesn’t appear good enough to stop the Badgers.
Northwestern’s offense came to life against Bowling Green in their most recent game (9.1 yppl and 49 points) but the Wildcats’ struggled offensively before that game an Wisconsin still has a very good defense that’s allowed just 10 points and 239 yards per game at 4.3 yppl (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). I don’t think Northwestern will do too much damage and the Badgers should be able to win by more than two touchdowns.
Indiana @ Penn St.
Penn State isn’t nearly as good offensively as they were last season because the pass attack has been inconsistent and not much better than average when compensating for defenses faced. The Nittany Lions are still very good offensively because of the running of Saquon Barkeley (518 yards at 7.8 ypr) and their defense is very, very good this season – so beating a mediocre Indiana team by a comfortable margin is a reasonable expectation. My model leans with Penn State and the Lions apply to a 66-31-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense (just 8.3 points allowed per game) but I see more value on the under (63) than on the side in this game.
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Luke Del Rio will get the start at quarterback, which is a desperate move considering how much Del Rio has struggled in his career. Del Rio has averaged only 6.1 yards on his 223 pass plays (209 last season and 14 last week) while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a downgrade but my math still favors Florida by 10 points against a Vanderbilt team that was given a wake-up call last week by Alabama in the form of a 59-0 ass kicking. Vandy is an improved team this season but Florida has under-performed so far defensively and I expect some improvement from the Gators on that side of the ball.
Mississippi St. @ Auburn
Mississippi State’s offense piled up 57 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense, then put 37 on an LSU defense that is good, but not elite this season. However, last week the Bulldogs ran into a legitimately elite Georgia defense and were held to just 3 points and 4.0 yards per play. Today they face another elite defense, as the Auburn Tigers have held their opponents to just 11.3 points and 230 yards per game at 3.6 yppl, which included limiting Clemson to 4.4 yppl. This game will tell me a lot about Mississippi’s ability to perform against a good defensive team. Was last week just a randomly bad game? Or, are the Bulldogs really not good enough to beat an elite defensive team? My math model is calling for something in between.
Auburn’s offense has been as good as expected in 3 of their 4 games and were held to 117 yards at 1.8 yppl by Clemson. Mississippi State is not Clemson defensively so I expect the Tigers to move the ball pretty well even though Miss State has a better than average defense. My math model favors Auburn by 8½ points so the line on this game is about right.
Mississippi @ Alabama
Mississippi had a week off after losing at Cal but I don’t know if having the extra week to prepare for Alabama really matters. Bama is 7-2 ATS when favored from 14½ to 35 points when they played last week and their opponent had a week off. That’s certainly not a trend I’d put any money on but it certainly suggests that the Rebels having a week off is not an advantage. Ole’ Miss has a very good quarterback in Shea Patterson, but the Rebels’ aerial attack was held in check at Cal, the only team they’ve faced with a decent defense. Alabama’s defense is, of course, more than decent. The Tide are one of the top two or three defensive teams in the nation every year. My math does project a decent 5.2 yards per play for Mississippi in this game but the Rebels are mediocre defensively and Bama has average 41 points in 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.5 yards per play better than defensively than the Ole’ Miss defense.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin has struggled to run the ball in recent seasons but the Badgers appear to have found their next great running back in freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has 438 yards in his first 3 games while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per run. With a good ground game the Badgers’ play-action passes are even more effective and soph quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been incredibly efficient in completing 70% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass play. Wisconsin is very good offensively if Taylor is indeed the real deal and Northwestern’s mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) doesn’t appear good enough to stop the Badgers.
Northwestern’s offense came to life against Bowling Green in their most recent game (9.1 yppl and 49 points) but the Wildcats’ struggled offensively before that game an Wisconsin still has a very good defense that’s allowed just 10 points and 239 yards per game at 4.3 yppl (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). I don’t think Northwestern will do too much damage and the Badgers should be able to win by more than two touchdowns.
Indiana @ Penn St.
Penn State isn’t nearly as good offensively as they were last season because the pass attack has been inconsistent and not much better than average when compensating for defenses faced. The Nittany Lions are still very good offensively because of the running of Saquon Barkeley (518 yards at 7.8 ypr) and their defense is very, very good this season – so beating a mediocre Indiana team by a comfortable margin is a reasonable expectation. My model leans with Penn State and the Lions apply to a 66-31-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense (just 8.3 points allowed per game) but I see more value on the under (63) than on the side in this game.
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Luke Del Rio will get the start at quarterback, which is a desperate move considering how much Del Rio has struggled in his career. Del Rio has averaged only 6.1 yards on his 223 pass plays (209 last season and 14 last week) while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a downgrade but my math still favors Florida by 10 points against a Vanderbilt team that was given a wake-up call last week by Alabama in the form of a 59-0 ass kicking. Vandy is an improved team this season but Florida has under-performed so far defensively and I expect some improvement from the Gators on that side of the ball.
Mississippi St. @ Auburn
Mississippi State’s offense piled up 57 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense, then put 37 on an LSU defense that is good, but not elite this season. However, last week the Bulldogs ran into a legitimately elite Georgia defense and were held to just 3 points and 4.0 yards per play. Today they face another elite defense, as the Auburn Tigers have held their opponents to just 11.3 points and 230 yards per game at 3.6 yppl, which included limiting Clemson to 4.4 yppl. This game will tell me a lot about Mississippi’s ability to perform against a good defensive team. Was last week just a randomly bad game? Or, are the Bulldogs really not good enough to beat an elite defensive team? My math model is calling for something in between.
Auburn’s offense has been as good as expected in 3 of their 4 games and were held to 117 yards at 1.8 yppl by Clemson. Mississippi State is not Clemson defensively so I expect the Tigers to move the ball pretty well even though Miss State has a better than average defense. My math model favors Auburn by 8½ points so the line on this game is about right.
Mississippi @ Alabama
Mississippi had a week off after losing at Cal but I don’t know if having the extra week to prepare for Alabama really matters. Bama is 7-2 ATS when favored from 14½ to 35 points when they played last week and their opponent had a week off. That’s certainly not a trend I’d put any money on but it certainly suggests that the Rebels having a week off is not an advantage. Ole’ Miss has a very good quarterback in Shea Patterson, but the Rebels’ aerial attack was held in check at Cal, the only team they’ve faced with a decent defense. Alabama’s defense is, of course, more than decent. The Tide are one of the top two or three defensive teams in the nation every year. My math does project a decent 5.2 yards per play for Mississippi in this game but the Rebels are mediocre defensively and Bama has average 41 points in 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.5 yards per play better than defensively than the Ole’ Miss defense.
