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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Thank you College Football Playoff and ESPN! It used to be that Week 1 of the college football season was cupcake city. But now? Teams know they have to schedule at least one marquee nonconference opponent, and ESPN has ponied up big dollars for power programs to face off Week 1 at neutral sites such as Arlington, Texas, Atlanta, Houston and now Orlando. Thus, this year's opening weekend is the best I can remember in terms of quality matchups.

For every Bowling Green-Ohio State, Furman-Michigan State, Hawaii-Michigan (apparently the Big Ten didn't get the memo), Northwestern State-Baylor (the Bears always have a joke of a nonconference schedule) and UC Davis-Oregon, we get No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston, No. 20 USC vs. No. 1 Alabama, No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Florida State and No. 18 Georgia vs. No. 22 North Carolina. It's the first time in seven years we have four Top-25 matchups in Week 1. And don't forget about No. 2 Clemson-Auburn, No. 10 Notre Dame-Texas and No. 16 UCLA-Texas A&M, among others.

The beer is already chilled and the new recliner has been ordered. See you on a weekend in mid-February, wife! Here are a few Week 1 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll. Games Saturday unless noted.

Appalachian State at No. 9 Tennessee (-20): This was moved to a Thursday months back to accommodate television and, as only an SEC school would, UT canceled classes for the day. It's the first time since 1938 that UT has hosted a Thursday night game. Tennessee is taking one of the biggest leans on the board, yet this line opened as high as 22.5. And while I am on the UT bandwagon this year for it to win the SEC East for the first time since 2007, do not sleep on the Mountaineers. For one, they are pretty good. I'm sure you know App State used to be a FCS powerhouse and had that epic upset at Michigan nearly a decade ago. Last year was their second as an FBS member, and the Mountaineers finished second in the Sun Belt and at 11-2 overall, beating Ohio in the school's first bowl game. They bring back 17 starters from that team, including starting QB Taylor Lamb and star running back Marcus Cox. Secondly, Tennessee could be looking ahead to next week's very unique game against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway, which will shatter the NCAA attendance record. The pick: Hoping to find 21 or higher somewhere, but Appalachian State.

Boise State at Louisiana-Lafayette (+19.5): The Ragin' Cajuns are by far the biggest home dogs on the board for Week 1. Just recently, ULL coach Mark Hudspeth named his starting quarterback for the season, and it wasn't a surprise that it was LSU transfer Anthony Jennings. He lost the LSU job to Brandon Harris and didn't play at all last year. In 13 games in 2014, he was an 111-for-227 passing (just 48.9 percent) for 1,611 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions while starting 12. Jennings is eligible immediately as a graduate transfer. It's quite possible that Boise State could be the first Group of 5 school to crash the College Football Playoff this season even though the Broncos aren't ranked. They should be favored in every game, with their toughest ones likely next week at home vs. Washington State, Oct. 20 at home vs. BYU and Nov. 25 at Air Force. Then presumably against San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BSU's top three offensive players, sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien, junior tailback Jeremy McNichols and senior wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck, all are back. The pick: ULL.

Arizona vs. BYU (+1): Smallest spread of any game on the board (opened as a pick'em) and technically a neutral-site game at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. BYU fans travel well and Arizona fans not so much, so it could actually be a BYU lean in terms of fan support. Might this be BYU's final season as an independent? The Cougars are considered a top candidate to join the Big 12 perhaps as soon as next season if that conference does expand. We should learn that decision by October. This also is the debut of BYU head coach Kalani Sitake as he replaces Bronco Mendenhall, who surprisingly left for Virginia. Sitake's first big decision was to name his starting QB, and he just did that in naming fifth-year senior Taysom Hill for the job. If it seems like that dude has been in college for a decade, he has been around since 2012 and is 26. Mega-talented but suffered season-ending injuries last year, in 2014 and '12. Hill beat out sophomore Tanner Mangum, who led the Cougars to back-to-back game-winning scores in the final minute of BYU's first two games of 2015 against Nebraska and Boise State. I doubt BYU runs the table this year, but if it does it deserves to be in the playoff with a tough schedule that includes this game, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Boise State and Cincinnati. The pick: BYU.

No. 2 Clemson at Auburn (+7): Two clear story lines here: the Heisman campaign of betting favorite Deshaun Watson starts for Clemson, and the potential march to unemployment gets underway for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn in the battle of Tigers. Watson was absolutely marvelous last season and nearly single-handedly beat Alabama in the National Championship Game back in January, but Clemson came up just short. That Clemson offense is going to be scary good as it brings back nearly everyone as well last year's projected No. 1 receiver in Mike Williams. He was hurt in the 2015 season opener and didn't play again. The defense is a question mark. Malzahn's probably a goner if Auburn doesn't win at least eight games, and if Auburn gets routed here he might not last the season. The Tigers have regressed each year since Malzahn led them to the final BCS National Championship Game in the 2013 season, a near upset of Florida State. Malzahn is resting his fortunes on QB Sean White. He won a battle against Jeremy Johnson and transfer John Franklin III, the guy many thought would win the job after White and Johnson struggled last year. White, a sophomore, started six games in 2015 and completed 58 percent of his passes for 1,167 yards, one TD and four picks. I'm surprised he was chosen because he's not the runner the other two are. The pick: Clemson -- this opened at 7.5 and might get back there with a large early clean on Clemson, so get 7 while you can.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Top 14 games of the weekend

South Carolina beat Vanderbilt last five years but covered only one of last four; they won 17-13/48-34 in last two visits here. Gamecocks have a new coach and only 9 starters back- they’re 6-9 vs spread on road last three years. Vandy is 2-4 as a home favorite under Mason; they’ve got 15 starters back, have soph QB who started five games LY.

Oregon State was one of youngest teams in country LY but has 13 starters back; Beavers are 2-7 as road underdogs last two years. OSU coach Anderson beat Minnesota 20-7/34-24 while at Wisconsin in 2014-15. Gophers has a new coach and 13 starters back; they’re 10-6 as home favorites last four years. Since 2012, Big 14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team.

Colorado/Colorado State split last four meetings (dogs 3-0-1 vs spread); this game is at neutral Denver site. Buffs have 18 starters back and senior QB who has 29 starts- they’re 6-2 as favorites under MacIntyre. State has only 10 starters back; their junior QB has 13 starts. Rams are 6-5 as underdogs last three years.

Missouri has new coach, soph QB, only one starter back on OL after 5-7 year- they were 1-4 vs spread on road LY. Tigers are 12-5 as road dogs since 2011. West Virginia has senior QB with 15 starts but lost 7 starters on defense; WV is 9-15 as home favorite under Holgorsen. Last five years, Big*X teams are 4-2 vs spread when favored against an SEC team; they’ve been underdog in 12 of 20 meetings, with two pick ’ems.

Southern Miss’ new OC Dawson was Kentucky’s OC LY, which can’t hurt. USM has senior QB with 30 starts, 3 senior starters on OL, but their*head coach*bolted for OC job in NFL.*Kentucky has SEC opener with Florida next; they’ve got 4 starters back on OL, but soph QB with only 2 starts. Wildcats are*7-3 as home favorites under Stoops, 7-4-1 in last 12 non-SEC games. C-USA are 14-12 as dogs vs SEC squads the last five years.

Clemson beat Auburn 38-24/26-19 in games played in 2011-12; Clemson coach Swinney is an Alabama grad- his team has junior QB with 20 starts, but only 7 starters back on defense- they’re 2-6 as road favorites last two years. Auburn is unsure of its starting QB; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as a home dog, but 2-8 in last 10 non-SEC games.*Last 5 years, ACC teams are 8-6 vs spread when favored over an SEC squad- they were underdog in 31 of 45 meetings (19-26 vs spread, favorites 28-17).

Pac 12-SEC teams don’t meet often; last five years, SEC teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits. A&M’s new QB is former Sooner Knight (15 starts); Aggies are 6-12 as home favorites last 3 years- they’ve got 13 starters back, only 2 on OL. UCLA*lost 7 starters on offense; they’ve got*soph QB (13 starts), are 13-11 vs spread under Mora, 5-4 as road dogs- they do have 9 starters back on defense.

Last 5 years, SEC teams are 18-8 SU vs Big 14 teams, 13-8-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’08, LSU is just 15-22 vs spread outside SEC; they’re 9-6-1 as favorite last 2 years. Tigers have 17 starters back but can QB make defenses respect their passing game, opening up ground attack for Fournette? Last 6 years, Badgers are 6-2 as underdogs; last 3 years, they are 10-5 outside Big 14. This game is at Lambeau Field, not in Madison.

Georgia has new coach (why?); they’re 12-9-1 vs spread outside SEC, 18-22 in last 40 games as favorite. Dawgs have 14 starters back, 8 on offense; will new coach play vet (12 starts) QB or frosh Eason? North Carolina has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’re 4-7 as road dogs under Fedora. UNC QB Trubisky was 40-47/555 LY, impressive, but this is his first college start. SEC teams are 20-11 vs spread when favored vs ACC squads.

Last 3 years, Houston is 8-0-1 vs spread as an underdog; they’re 29-11 SU, beating ACC teams in last 2 bowls. Cougars have senior QB (25 starts) but only 11 starters back from LY (no senior starters on OL). Oklahoma has senior QB (20 starts), 13 starters back; Sooners are 13-7 vs spread outside Big X last 5 years, 17-11 as favorites last 3 years. Oklahoma has frosh, 4 sophs starting on OL; three of them started LY.

USC has 10 starters back on offense, but new starter is QB; since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as underdogs. USC lost 6 starters on defense, but does have whole OL back. Alabama lost 11 starters, has new QB; they’re 8-13 vs spread in last 21 non-SEC games. Last 8 years, they’re 20-12 as road favorites. Last*5 years, SEC teams are 6-1 SU vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits.

BYU/Arizona both have 15 starters back, both have vet QBs (BYU’s has 19 starts, Arizona’s 25). BYU lost bowl games to Pac-12 squads 2 of last 3 years; they’ve got 15 starters back, are 4-8 vs spread on road last 3 years. (this game is*in Cardinals’ dome, not Tucson, but will be ‘zona crowd). Arizona is 5-9 under RichRod in games where spread was less than 6 points; they’re 14-15 as faves under this coach. New coach for BYU; Mendenhall was at BYU for 11 years.

Texas is 11-14 under Strong, 3-7-1 vs spread as dogs; they lost 38-3 (+9) LY in South Bend, outgained 527-163- they moved former QB Heard (10 starts) to WR, haven’t decided between Buechele/Swoopes as their QB. Longhorns have 14 starters back, 3 on OL. Notre Dame is just 5-9 as road favorite under Kelly; they lost 13 starters, have just 27 returning starts on OL, but they do have quality depth at QB.

Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have*16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Alabama, USC Clash at “Jerry's World” in Arlington'

The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off their third national championship since 2009. They’ll open up their season in the marquee game of the week, playing against the No. 20 USC Trojans. USC have claimed 11 national football titles, with the last one coming in 2004. The two begin their 2016-17 campaigns on Saturday at AT&T Stadium – home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys.

The Trojans were 8-6 straight up last season and 6-8 against the spread. They’ve got 16 starters returning, including 10 on offense, but they’ll have to make a key replacement at quarterback. Cody Kessler, who finished his career with 10,339 passing yards, 88 touchdowns and 19 interceptions has graduated.

The Crimson Tide went 14-1 last season (8-7 ATS). They bring back 11 starters, including six on offense. Most importantly, the Crimson Tide have head coach Nick Saban. During his tenure, the Crimson Tide are an incredible 95-11 over the last eight seasons. There are a lot of holes to fill this year – even on defense – but Saban will have the next group ready to defend the crown.

Alabama is 5-2 against USC, who lost the last meeting 3-24 in the 1985 Aloha Bowl. The Crimson Tide are 12-point favourites for Saturday’s neutral-site game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC - SEC Showdown'

Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers Sept. 3, 9:00 EST

The eyes of most college football fans as well as those with a penchant for sports gaming with be on Saturday night's matchups between Clemson and Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Clemson blessed with the return of eight offensive starters, including QB Deshaun Watson, top receivers Artavis Scott, Mike Williams and 1,500-yard rusher Wayne Gallman have opened 7.5 point road favorites.

The Auburn defense will keep it from getting completely out of hand but with AU's offensive depth issues they haven't got the firepower to keep up with Clemson's prolific offense. Consider laying the points. Clemson has been a money maker in this price range as they're on a 10-2 ATS stretch laying 7 to 10 points and enter 6-1 against the betting line in its past seven September games. Additionally, Auburn hasn't been a peg to hang your hopes in front of the home audience. In the last twelve at Jordan-Hare Stadium they're a money-burning 1-10-1 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We are down to the final three days of the Saratoga meeting and the final weekend, and we are going out with a bang with a 12-race card on tap for Saturday including four stakes.

The highlight is the $600,000 Woodward (G1) for older runners that drew a field of nine including Frosted, one of the early favorites for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The colt is the current second choice in early Classic betting at +350. California Chrome is the current favorite at +140 while Travers (G1) winner Arrogate has dropped to second choice at +250.

Frosted is the 1-2 morning line favorite for the Woodward and appears to be facing eight hopelessly overmatched foes.

However, they don’t call Saratoga the “Graveyard of Favorites” for no reason, and I think he has a shot of getting beat, and I’ll take a small stab there will be an upset.

It was hard to knock his last two starts, earning a lofty 123 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Met Mile (G1) in June and following that up with a workmanlike effort earning a 107 Beyer for his victory at the Spa in the Whitney (G1) on Aug. 6.

This could be his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic although his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has not ruled out the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in October at Belmont Park.

Today’s feature below is the $350,000 Spinaway (G1) which is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

A field of seven will line up with trainer Todd Pletcher sending out a pair seeking his sixth win in the race. Cherry Lodge was a sharp maiden winner in his debut at the Spa on Aug. 7 while her stablemate Sweet Loretta won the Schuylerville (G3) on opening day.

The 12-race card at the Spa gets underway at 12:30 ET and the Spinaway and Woodward will be televised live on the NBC Sports Network starting at 5:00 ET.


Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:30 ET)
#9 Sea Pebble 7-2
#10 Sanfiera 3-1
#5 Rescue Cat 5-1
#7 Palladian Bridge 6-1

Analysis: Sea Pebble chased the early pace and could not get to the winner late in a runner up finish in a race washed off the turf last out. It was her third straight runner up finish, two of those trips coming in off the turf races. Two back in her last trip on turf she was outrun early and came with a good late run to finish 1 3/4 lengths back of the winner. She is out of the stakes winner Search the Sea ($176,635) who has dropped six winners including three turf winners.

Sanfiera faded to finish fifth last out in the same race our top pick exits after tracking the early pace. She was making her first start off a 10-month layoff. Shed ran well in a runner up finish last fall on turf at Belmont Park behind repeat winner Splendid Gold, who won four of her next seven starts. The mare is out of a Capote mare that has dropped seven winners but no turf winners to date. Ward hits at a 34% clip (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 9,10 / 5,7,9,10 / 5,7,9,10,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Spinaway G1 (5:11 ET)
#5 Cherry Lodge 2-1
#6 Pretty City Dancer 7-2
#1 Sweet Loretta 5-2
#3 Runway Doll 3-1

Analysis: Cherry Lodge is one of two in here sent out by the Pletcher barn that has won this race five times, including last year with Rachel's Valentina. Our top pick was a $450,000 Keeneland purchase who broke her maiden in a sharp looking outing in her debut here on Aug. 7 in gate to wire fashion as the betting favorite. Johnny V. rode both of the barn's runners and sticks with his gal, who is a half to six winners including three stakes winners, top earner Stormello ($700,100). Pletcher hits at a 28% clip overall with juveniles and this gal looks capable of moving forward off her debut effort.

Pretty City Dancer invades from Kentucky for the Casse barn. The filly hopped at the break last out and overcame the poor start to win the Debutante in her first start against winners. Three have come out of that race to run back including Grandma's Princess, who won the Prairie Gold Lassie Stakes and Country Candy, who ran second in the Prairie Gold lassie and then won the Evangeline Princess in her most recent outing. The $825,000 Keeneland purchase is by Tapit out of a Carson City mare that has dropped four other winners, top earner Lear's Princess ($491,870). The extra ground should suit this filly.

Sweet Loretta was off a beat slow and made a good late rally to win the Schuylerville (G2) here on optioning day. The $750,000 purchase is by Tapit out of a stakes placed Bluegrass Cat mare. She will need a cleaner break to beat her stablemate here. Not too crazy about the rail draw.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The Del Mar Debutante G1 (6:00 PT)
#5 Noted and Quoted 7-2
#4 Champagne Room 2-1
#3 American Cleopatra 5-2
#2 Morganite 7-2

Analysis: Noted and Quoted is one of two in here sent out by the Baffert barn that has won this race six times. The filly was fourth in her debut and came back with a smart looking maiden win last out where she drew away to win by 9 1/2 lengths as the chalk. The $375,000 Ocala purchase is out of the stakes winner Silver Cub ($55,346). She looks as if the extra furlong here will suit her.

Champagne Room earned the top last out speed fig in a good looking maiden win last out in her second career start. She was a $310,000 Ocala purchase and came back with a bullet drill on Aug. 27. The Eurton barn won the 2011 Debutante with Weemissfrankie.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: @2 General Bellamy 12-1
R3: #9 Cleave 8-1
R4: #8 Altito 8-1
R5: #1 Inspector Lynley 8-1
R8: #5 Harlan Punch 15-1
R8: #2 Boalt Hall 10-1
R8: 31 Dreamsdocometrue 8-1
R10: #6 Samraat 10-1
R11: #1 Miss Chatelaine 10-1
R11: #4 Ball Dancing 8-1
R12: #3 Intensity 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 1 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

So I'm sure you are dying to know my predictions for the 2016 college football season as I kick off my weekly news and line-movement stories on Fridays all season.

Alabama is the +600 favorite to repeat as National Champion, but I don't think the Tide make the playoff. My picks for that are SEC champion LSU (+650 to win the national title), Big 12 champion Oklahoma (+1400), ACC champion Florida State (+900) and "at-large" team Clemson (+650). Yes, for the first time in the short history of the College Football Playoff, one conference will get two schools in. That's because I believe FSU beats Clemson in a close game on Oct. 29 in Tallahassee. The Seminoles will finish unbeaten and the Tigers with just that one loss. The Pac-12 has no great teams and will be left out again. Meanwhile, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State in the Big Ten will suffer two losses, and that conference will miss the playoff for the first time.

Sportsbooks offer a prop on which conference the National Champion comes from. The SEC is predictably a favorite at +185, followed by the Big Ten at +300. And while I am leaning LSU at this moment, I'd take the ACC on that prop at +375 because of my belief that Clemson and FSU both reach the semifinals. This year's semis are unfortunately on New Year's Eve again and at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and Fiesta Bowl outside Phoenix. The title game is Monday, Jan. 9 in Tampa.

If you are familiar with these stories from last year, I try to point out any injury news that might have happened during the week or any big line moves and as a possible explanation of why they happened. So here are some news, notes and any line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

Hawaii at No. 7 Michigan (-40, 52.5): This opened at 42 but is still the largest spread on the board -- if you don't count any games involving FCS teams against FBS powerhouses: I'm looking at you, Oregon vs. UC Davis. It will have been quite a brutal first two games for Hawaii in terms of travel as the Rainbow Warriors opened the season on Aug. 26 with a 51-31 loss to California in Sydney, Australia. And now they fly another 4,500 miles or so to the Detroit area. In a pretty sorry move, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh wouldn't share a tape of his team's recent scrimmage with Hawaii even though UM obviously has scouting tape on the Warriors from the Cal game. Yeah, Harbaugh isn't obligated, but it's not going to change the outcome. Most likely, Harbaugh wants to keep his starting quarterback under wraps. He still hasn't announced whether it's Wilton Speight, last year's backup to Jake Rudock, or Houston transfer John O'Korn. I believe it will be Speight., a 6-foot-6 junior. Hawaii played at Ohio State and Wisconsin last year from the Big Ten and lost by a combined score of 66-0.

No. 18 Georgia vs. No. 22 North Carolina (+2.5, 56.5): This game is in Atlanta and one of four Top-25 matchups on this stellar opening weekend of action. The big news here is that Dawgs running back Nick Chubb, a Heisman candidate, has been cleared to play. Chubb, a junior, averaged an SEC-high 8.1 yards per carry last season and had a string of 13 straight 100-yard rushing games before tearing his ACL against Tennessee last October. As recently as a few weeks ago, it wasn't a sure thing Chubb would be ready for the opener. This is the Georgia head coaching debut of former Bulldogs player and ex-Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, and he has decided that senior Greyson Lambert will be his starting QB. Lambert, a Virginia transfer, went 10-2 as a starter for the Bulldogs last season, throwing for 1,959 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. He was in a heated battle with five-star freshman Jacob Eason, the guy most Georgia fans wanted to start. Eason is expected to play some against UNC.

No. 20 USC vs. No. 1 Alabama (-12, 53): This game in Arlington, Texas, opened at 10 and the Tide are taking a sold lean. They are 6-0 in neutral-site season openers under Coach Nick Saban. I'd like to tell you who Alabama's quarterback will be, but Saban hasn't announced whether it will be junior Cooper Bateman, last year's backup to Jake Coker, or freshman Blake Barnett. It's the third straight season that Alabama had a QB battle entering Week 1, with Blake Sims winning the job two years ago and Coker in 2015. If history is any indication, Saban will go with the experienced Bateman. Meanwhile, it's the first time since 2011 that USC is a double-digit dog. This will be the ninth time in the last 20 years that the Trojans have been and USC has gone 6-2 ATS in the previous eight. This will be the first career start for Trojans QB Max Browne. He backed up Cody Kessler for the past two seasons and won the starting job in a close battle over redshirt freshman Sam Darnold.

New Mexico State at UTEP (-9.5, 60): This line has risen two points and UTEP is taking a big lean probably because Aggies star running back Larry Rose III is likely to miss the game -- downgraded to doubtful -- after recently undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia. Rose, who rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore last season, was named a third-team Associated Press All-American. He also had 228 receiving yards. Apparently NMSU junior quarterback Tyler Rogers will start on Saturday despite recently being arrested -- the local DA has declined to prosecute the misdemeanor battery. UTEP beat visiting New Mexico State 50-47 in OT last year. Rose carried 20 times for 186 yards and a touchdown, while Rogers threw for 285 yards and three scores.

No. 10 Notre Dame at Texas (+3.5, 60): This game was moved from Saturday to Sunday night to get the national spotlight all to itself. We know that the Irish are going to use both of their very good quarterbacks, Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer. Zaire was the unquestioned starter to open last season and was brilliant in the Irish's 38-3 home rout of Texas in Week 1, only to get hurt in the Irish's next game. The big question here is who starts at quarterback for Texas and embattled coach Charlie Strong. He says the public won't know until the Texas offense takes the field for the first time. Strong also said the starter he uses Sunday will be the starter all season unless "something happens." Most believe it will be freshman Shane Buechele over senior Tyrone Swoopes, who is just 6-8 as a starter in his career. He started that rout vs. the Irish last year and was just 7-for-22 for 93 yards. Has a coach ever been fired after Week 1? if the Horns lose by 35 again, Strong might be.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We are down to the final three days of the Saratoga meeting and the final weekend, and we are going out with a bang with a 12-race card on tap for Saturday including four stakes.

The highlight is the $600,000 Woodward (G1) for older runners that drew a field of nine including Frosted, one of the early favorites for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The colt is the current second choice in early Classic betting at +350. California Chrome is the current favorite at +140 while Travers (G1) winner Arrogate has dropped to second choice at +250.

Frosted is the 1-2 morning line favorite for the Woodward and appears to be facing eight hopelessly overmatched foes.

However, they don’t call Saratoga the “Graveyard of Favorites” for no reason, and I think he has a shot of getting beat, and I’ll take a small stab there will be an upset.

It was hard to knock his last two starts, earning a lofty 123 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Met Mile (G1) in June and following that up with a workmanlike effort earning a 107 Beyer for his victory at the Spa in the Whitney (G1) on Aug. 6.

This could be his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic although his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has not ruled out the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in October at Belmont Park.

Today’s feature below is the $350,000 Spinaway (G1) which is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

A field of seven will line up with trainer Todd Pletcher sending out a pair seeking his sixth win in the race. Cherry Lodge was a sharp maiden winner in his debut at the Spa on Aug. 7 while her stablemate Sweet Loretta won the Schuylerville (G3) on opening day.

The 12-race card at the Spa gets underway at 12:30 ET and the Spinaway and Woodward will be televised live on the NBC Sports Network starting at 5:00 ET.


Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:30 ET)
#9 Sea Pebble 7-2
#10 Sanfiera 3-1
#5 Rescue Cat 5-1
#7 Palladian Bridge 6-1

Analysis: Sea Pebble chased the early pace and could not get to the winner late in a runner up finish in a race washed off the turf last out. It was her third straight runner up finish, two of those trips coming in off the turf races. Two back in her last trip on turf she was outrun early and came with a good late run to finish 1 3/4 lengths back of the winner. She is out of the stakes winner Search the Sea ($176,635) who has dropped six winners including three turf winners.

Sanfiera faded to finish fifth last out in the same race our top pick exits after tracking the early pace. She was making her first start off a 10-month layoff. Shed ran well in a runner up finish last fall on turf at Belmont Park behind repeat winner Splendid Gold, who won four of her next seven starts. The mare is out of a Capote mare that has dropped seven winners but no turf winners to date. Ward hits at a 34% clip (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 9,10 / 5,7,9,10 / 5,7,9,10,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Spinaway G1 (5:11 ET)
#5 Cherry Lodge 2-1
#6 Pretty City Dancer 7-2
#1 Sweet Loretta 5-2
#3 Runway Doll 3-1

Analysis: Cherry Lodge is one of two in here sent out by the Pletcher barn that has won this race five times, including last year with Rachel's Valentina. Our top pick was a $450,000 Keeneland purchase who broke her maiden in a sharp looking outing in her debut here on Aug. 7 in gate to wire fashion as the betting favorite. Johnny V. rode both of the barn's runners and sticks with his gal, who is a half to six winners including three stakes winners, top earner Stormello ($700,100). Pletcher hits at a 28% clip overall with juveniles and this gal looks capable of moving forward off her debut effort.

Pretty City Dancer invades from Kentucky for the Casse barn. The filly hopped at the break last out and overcame the poor start to win the Debutante in her first start against winners. Three have come out of that race to run back including Grandma's Princess, who won the Prairie Gold Lassie Stakes and Country Candy, who ran second in the Prairie Gold lassie and then won the Evangeline Princess in her most recent outing. The $825,000 Keeneland purchase is by Tapit out of a Carson City mare that has dropped four other winners, top earner Lear's Princess ($491,870). The extra ground should suit this filly.

Sweet Loretta was off a beat slow and made a good late rally to win the Schuylerville (G2) here on optioning day. The $750,000 purchase is by Tapit out of a stakes placed Bluegrass Cat mare. She will need a cleaner break to beat her stablemate here. Not too crazy about the rail draw.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The Del Mar Debutante G1 (6:00 PT)
#5 Noted and Quoted 7-2
#4 Champagne Room 2-1
#3 American Cleopatra 5-2
#2 Morganite 7-2

Analysis: Noted and Quoted is one of two in here sent out by the Baffert barn that has won this race six times. The filly was fourth in her debut and came back with a smart looking maiden win last out where she drew away to win by 9 1/2 lengths as the chalk. The $375,000 Ocala purchase is out of the stakes winner Silver Cub ($55,346). She looks as if the extra furlong here will suit her.

Champagne Room earned the top last out speed fig in a good looking maiden win last out in her second career start. She was a $310,000 Ocala purchase and came back with a bullet drill on Aug. 27. The Eurton barn won the 2011 Debutante with Weemissfrankie.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: @2 General Bellamy 12-1
R3: #9 Cleave 8-1
R4: #8 Altito 8-1
R5: #1 Inspector Lynley 8-1
R8: #5 Harlan Punch 15-1
R8: #2 Boalt Hall 10-1
R8: 31 Dreamsdocometrue 8-1
R10: #6 Samraat 10-1
R11: #1 Miss Chatelaine 10-1
R11: #4 Ball Dancing 8-1
R12: #3 Intensity 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DDLohaus’ Saratoga analysis

Saturday’s picks

Got our money’s worth with our only play yesterday.* Still managed a small profit and getting a bit of momentum into a nice race card.

Race #1
$15W Rescue Cat

Race #3
$15WP Starstruck Kitten

Race #6
$5WPS Nonna’s Boy

Race #9
$25W Cherry Lodge

Race #12
$5WPS Blackout

Total Bets: $100.00
Meet Total: – $704.00

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne: Saturday 9/3 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (18 - 31 / $89.80): FOX VALLEY NEMITZ (8th)

Spot Play: SUMMER PARTY (11th)


Race 1

(8) COOL LIKE THAT will offer the best price of the contenders and just needs a good setup. (6) OLD MAN RIVER always offers a low price but is very consistent. (4) FOX VALLEY ELIJAH just missed last week showing a big late kick.

Race 2

(9) MADDYS BUDDY is 0 for his career but has been facing much tougher in recent starts. (5) DUNESIDE CHARLIE flashed some ability on the fair circuit and could step up on the big track. (7) SANTANASDREAMCHIP is a 3-year-old with room to improve in his third career start.

Race 3

(6) LODI MACHETTE MAN raced really gamely two back to a nice opponent. If the pacer can duplicate that he can score. (7) AT MAX SPEED is another horse 0 for the year, however the pacer had some sneaky late pace last out at this level. (9) NANCYS SKYSCAPE set a lifetime mark last time while dominating weaker. The pacer gets sent out for a hot barn with the top driver.

Race 4

(5) SUMMER SHANDY might offer a little better value this week. The pacer has been very competitive at this level. (8) FF BIGSHOW will look to make it three straight wins since the claim. (1) DUNESIDE SPORT bumps back up a notch but gets the best post in a fairly wide open race.

Race 5

(1) TINY JIM is a freshman pacer that has been very close against the best 2-year-olds in the state; threat. Well bred 2-year-old (5) FOX VALLEY INFERNO tired badly in his last start but was sharp prior. He's the horse to beat with a good effort. (3) FOX VALLEY JETER has a good pedigree and raced much better last week despite getting disqualified.

Race 6

(6) DAN D DUNE wasn't on his game in both fair races. The start at this track two back would easily do the job. (3) DR DRAKE RAMORAY might be one of a few threats in the race with a smooth trip. (5) HE GONE JACK hasn't beaten the best this class has to offer yet, but should be in line for a piece underneath.

Race 7

(2) GOINDUNESIDE owns only one win on the year but picks up a huge driver change. The 3-year-old should offer a big price and is versatile. (6) ROYAL ROSE was sharp last start while setting a lifetime mark. But the pacer has not fared his best at this track, tiring late in deep stretch in most of his efforts; use caution. (3) BS TYRRIFIC is more than capable of beating this bunch with a good setup.

Race 8

(7) FOX VALLEY NEMITZ has really blossomed into a nice horse. The gelding looks to make it five wins in seven starts. (3) FOX VALLEY REGGIE has been sharp in two straight. The 2-year-old might be the only threat to the top choice, but he does get sent out for a low percentage pilot. (4) SLZBURGERSLZBURGER has been dreadful in two straight. The pacer will offer a big price and did flash some ability early on.

Race 9

(3) UPTOWN SLEAZE drew into the easier division and gets a great starting post. (4) SULLIVAN flashed early signs of being a good one. He picks up a huge driver change and looks to offer value. (7) SPORTY REDHOT has been racing gamely but will offer low value and has not sealed the deal himself in four starts; command a price.

Race 10

(7) A COOL CARD will probably offer the better price of the contenders and has been on fire for new connections. (6) UNLOCKED has come up short in two straight, however the pacer has been facing much tougher. (4) DINKY DUNE is best used underneath despite racing gamely most of the year.

Race 11

(1) SUMMER PARTY is just now back in racing shape and can upset with some racing luck. The 7-year-old was flying late last week. (2) ICED OUT just raced evenly last week while burning cash. The pacer has been competitive against better on the year but has disappointed in three straight. (4) MISSPANDEROSAJONES has been knocking on the door in four straight at this level.

Race 12

(3) WINNING DREAM dominated this group last week off a two month layoff. (1) KRUSTY THE CLOWN gets the best post for capable connections. (5) TORNADO HENRY should be much closer turning for home; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 9/3 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 2,3,4,5/3/2/4,6/1,2,3,4,9 = $8

EARLY PICK 4: 4/1,2,3,4,9/1,2,8/4,6 = $30

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,6/5,6,8,9/1,4,8/8 = $48

MEET STATS: 318 - 938 / $1654.70 BEST BETS: 52 - 87 / $166.60

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 87 / $119.10

Best Bet: BETTING LINE (3rd)

Spot Play: MACS JACKPOT (5th)


Race 1

(4) DUC DORLEANS had little chance racing first-up in a wicked 55 2/5 middle half last week. Moving to an inner post gives him a good opportunity to seize control of this race on the backside, or earlier, and Gingras sticks. (3) AMERICAN VIRGIN took a new life's mark last time he raced in a class similar to this; using. (5) JINS SHARK is sharp and he finished ahead of the choice last time. This is a good race to spread for Pick 5 wagers. (2) WAZZUP WAZZUP will likely be kept covered up until the lane by Waples but he should be close enough to spring an upset if everything falls his way in the stretch.

Race 2

(3) SINTRA tuned up nicely for this in a quick mile vs. some salty elders last week. Back in with his own kind and avoiding Betting Line tonight, he looks like a Pick 5 single. (2) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP will likely be looking for the pocket again here and he could be dangerous from there. (6) VORACITY likes this track and could crack the exotics despite leaving from the outermost post. (5) CRUISE PATROL is racing much better than he was two months ago; consider for exotics.

Race 3

(2) BETTING LINE is quite simply the best 3YO pacer on the continent. This sires stakes jaunt should be no more than paid exercise for him. (1) MAGNUM J raced well to be third to the choice at Northfield despite drawing the worst post. He likely completes a puny exacta here. (5) PIRANHA has been racing great but the top two will likely be too much for him. (3) GERRIES SPORT can leave out in the top 4 and hang around for a minor share.

Race 4

(4) IDYLLIC BEACH was a most impressive winner of her elimination for this stake final. She will be tough to beat here with the sharp late speed she has been producing. (6) AGENT Q provided cover for the choice last time and hung on well. She is the main danger. (2) THAT'S THE TICKET came out of nowhere to win her elimination, but she would need to find at least another second here to challenge the top two. (1) CANDLELIGHT DINNER stopped as a massive favorite last week. Even if her issues are fixed, she still has not come close to pacing as fast as the top two did last week in their eliminations.

Race 5

(3) MACS JACKPOT didn't get involved last week but he was racing in the toughest elimination and should find this group more to his liking; top call. (2) SOUTHWIND GENERAL caused some mayhem last week when loaded with pace and looking to create some room in the lane. He should be a top player here and get put into play sooner. (9) R J P had some late pace last week and is worth consideration. (1) BEACH HOUSE had an impossible trip last week and now moves inside. He is another that can win this.

Race 6

(2) DARLINONTHEBEACH has been sensational in her past couple of starts and she gets a good post from which to try to control this race; top call. (1) PURE COUNTRY gets Gingras here for the first time and is obviously the other main contender along with (8) L A DELIGHT, who comes off a new life's mark at The Meadows last time; post may work against her though here. (5) MAYHEM SEELSTER is one of several that you could use in the minor slots.

Race 7

(4) OCEAN COLONY displayed sharp speed both early and late in his elimination win and to me he and (8) IDEAL WHEEL stand out as the top two contenders in this renewal of the Metro Stakes. The latter raced extremely well in defeat to the choice last week and should be a big threat again. (1) BEYOND DELIGHT came out of nowhere to win one of the slower divisions, but he will need to be even faster here to threaten the top two. (9) BLOOD LINE made a big move then faltered late. He is worth a look for exotic plays here as he does have a big brush.

Race 8

(3) SUTTON was only a neck back in the final heat of the Hambletonian and subsequently raced well from an outer post in the Colonial Trot. He looks best here. (6) WAITLIFTER K also raced well in the Hambletonian then had an eventful trip in the Colonial. He is the main danger. (2) MUSCLE HUSTLE trotted a Canadian Record mile at Georgian last week. Don't take him lightly here. (1) REIGNING MONI has shown he has enough speed to contend if he minds his manners.

Race 9

(5) MOONWRITER drops back into a conditioned level where he should be a top contender and he picks up Miller; top call. (9) SHADOW PLACE is in terrific form but the outer post does him no favors here. (6) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP picks up Gingras and should get sent for position near the front off the gate; using. (8) VEGAS ROCKS has been super sharp in his past two starts. He is worth including at a price.

Race 10

(4) SHAMBALLA has somewhat caught up to the big boys recently - notice he paced his back 1/2 in 52 2/5 in the Dan Patch - and needs only an honest pace to have a legitimate shot at the biggest race for older pacers on his home turf. (1) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT has a few options here starting from the inside. He never seems to throw in a bad one and will be formidable, as always. (8) ALWAYS B MIKI was dominant earlier this year but seems to have shown a chink in his armour in his past couple of starts. Still, he is hard to leave off Pick 4 bets here. (3) STATE TREASURER has taken a while to hit his top stride, but he couldn't be better right now; consider.

Race 11

(8) MILLIGANS SCHOOL has danced every big dance this year with some decent success. He appears to hold a class edge on this group and should take this if provided with a reasonable trip. (3) TACO TUESDAY seems to be the type that needs to trip-out, but he has shown enough speed to be competitive here. (2) BLENHEIM raced decently in some big stakes down south and now returns to his home turf. He can share here. (5) JIMMY WILLIAM is one-for-one with Gingras. He could better this placing.

Race 12

(2) LYONS SNYDER lays over this group on paper, but he has missed close to five weeks. I will also use (1) MAJOR HILL and (5) POISONOUS - who are both in excellent form - on my Pick 4 tickets in case the choice comes up short. (3) BLAYDE HANOVER looks next best to grab a smaller share.

Race 13

(4) DIALAMARA acquitted himself well in the Maritimes and now he meets a field he should be able to handle upon returning. (6) HIDDEN POTENTIAL got a huge driver change last time and went a big trip on the rim in defeat. He can contend here despite the class rise. (8) LISVINNIE is fast but erratic; using. (3) MAJOR HOMER should work out a good following trip here and grab a share. (2) MR CARROTS will be passing most of these late and is another that should be utilized on the bottom.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 9/3 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 302 - 881 / $1,673.70

BEST BETS: 40 - 73 / $137.00

Best Bet: RACING HILL (9th)

Spot Play: SIR MACHALOT (1st)


Race 1

(3) SIR MACHALOT has jogged in his two starts since arriving from Canada and clearly he has more to offer. (2) PASS THEM BY N never had an anxious moment last week beating lesser and he could get the jump on the top choice. (1) BULLSEYE gets some class and post relief and seems capable of keeping up for a share.

Race 2

(3) LADY'S DUDE held his own these last few weeks in the Open and the Burke trainee should be able to handle this type. (2) RED HOT HERBIE returns from Saratoga off a failed effort on the front end but he won his start prior versus lesser; his speed and inside post makes him a threat. (1) CRESCENT FASHION is facing more seasoned foes and I'm not convinced he's ready for this type but he still merits consideration.

Race 3

(2) BJ'S GUY is up in class off two solid performances and he's been competitive with this type in the past. (1) FAN OF TERROR returns with the best post and picks up Zeron. (8) FIERY LUSTRE was a winner when last in with this type but the outside post may seal his fate; use underneath.

Race 4

(5) AMERICAN RAGE had no real chance in his last couple but his prior efforts were good; consider at a price in this wide-open affair. (6) COYBOY TERRIER exits claimers where he just missed to the streaking Rampage Jackson and he should be forwardly placed. (1) MIDNIGHT DYLAN was razor-sharp in defeat last out but he's missed almost a month; use caution.

Race 5

(3) MACH PRIDE had an interesting trip against better last week where he rushed up from last at 124/1 to challenge the leader; this is another open affair and he deserves serious consideration. (4) LAWGIVER HANOVER is up a notch in class off a very sharp win. (1) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE has been close in his last few and he has back class.

Race 6

(5) IDEAL COWBOY returns locally with needed class relief and Bartlett should be heading to the front with the Bamond trainee. (1) POLAK A was used up on the front end last out but his prior effort was sharp. (2) MISTER BLING A showed major promise when he first arrived in the U.S. but he's been a bit erratic since.

Race 7

(5) MELMERBY BEACH was awesome in defeat after battling a long way in a 1:50 4/5 mile; sharp sort can score off a trip. (2) SAPPHIRE CITY may be able to step over the rail horse and sit a close-up trip from this spot; threat if he isn't buried. (8) ROCKIN RON is back locally after defeating the great Wiggle It Jiggleit.

Race 8

(4) MARION MARAUDER adapted nicely to the half-mile track in last week's elimination and had a very easy time of it once he brushed to the lead; Hambletonian winner will likely have to work much harder tonight but he should be up to it. All eyes will be on him as the heavy favorite in this edition of the Yonkers Trot. (1) IRON MINE BUCKY tracked from third last week and trotted home evenly despite drifting. Colt gets a lucky draw again and should never be too far back. (5) LAGERFELD never had a chance last week as he was wiped out early and it's hard to ignore anything from these connections; trotter may be following the favorite. (3) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN will be firing hard early with Dan Daley at the controls.

Race 9

(3) RACING HILL has made more money this year than the rest of the field combined. He was the Hempt winner, the Adios winner and missed a nose in the Meadowlands Pace. While it's awesome to see a horse of his stature in this race you won't be looking at any value as he'll probably pay $2.20 to win. (7) DR J HANOVER is the other Tony Alagna entrant and he's very fast off the gate. Scott Zeron will likely be firing early looking for the trip behing the top one. (6) ANOTHER DAILY COPY has barely been a fringe player this year versus the top 3-year-olds but maybe he'll break out soon with a live performance.

Race 10

(4) DUEL IN THE SUN had decent pace at both ends last week and Bartlett sticks with him; lukewarm call. (1) IN THE ARSENAL is still winless on the year and had no excuse last out. (2) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH was a winner from the pocket last out and should be close up again.

Race 11

(3) FASHION DELIGHT gets needed class and post relief; he jogged from a similar spot four back with Bartlett. (4) AMERICANPRIMETIME was very game in defeat last week versus 4-year-olds; sharp sort seems capable with these. (2) MCERLEAN did have some late pace last out after escaping traffic.

Race 12

(5) MELADY'S MONET was a good second off a stalking trip last week and he has a post edge on that rival; perhaps it's his turn now. (4) CENTURION ATM was a big upset winner here two back and he certainly can win again but probably won't offer value tonight. (7) UNDERCOVER STRIKE is assigned outside after last week's easy win; Milici trainee is still capable.

Race 13

(3) E Z NOAH faltered badly on the front end last week but I'll give him another chance at a better price, probably from off the pace. (5) ROCK ON MOE has been a solid money-earner in his career and he'll probably be on the move early. (2) CLASS SIX didn't fire last out; prior efforts were good.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 9:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5900 - NON-WINNERS $3,500
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 SHELIKESCANDY 8/1
# 2 GROOVEY KID 3/1
# 3 MACK'S GOLD BAND 4/1

The consensus for this one is that SHELIKESCANDY is the one to beat and look at those reasonable morning line odds. With this driver/trainer hooking up, risk takers often make cash. ROI is great with this pair. The trainer Levine has a knack with this mare, regularly cashing in their races. GROOVEY KID - Hennessey has the knack for getting horses in the right place to win. Especially knows how to win moving down in class. Not many folks know, but the 2 slot here at Saratoga Harness has been outstanding for a better than expected win percent. MACK'S GOLD BAND - This contender looks tough considering the high class numbers. Don't toss out of any exotics. You have to think about a horse that wins a lot, very impressive win rate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 2:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$6000 - NON-WINNERS $5,000 LAST 4 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $1001 HORSES THAT RACED FOR A PURSE OF $16,500 OR HIGHER IN LAST 2 STARTS INELIGIBLE AE:NON-WINNERS 6 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 ALLSTAR PARTNER 8/5
# 6 GOOD DAY MATE 5/1
# 1 OK GORGEOUS 6/1

ALLSTAR PARTNER will have you running to the cashier's window for this one. He's competing in good form, recording bang-up TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent choice. Been running with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 92). Could quite possibly handle this group given the 84 TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in his last race. GOOD DAY MATE - Lake fits this entrant's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some excellent results when teaming up. OK GORGEOUS - The 89 average class number may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the field of horses. Gelding has one of the finest win figures in the grouping and that could be the deciding factor when they head for home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11600 Class Rating: 54

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 PRINCE MAYHEM 7/2

# 3 DODGE CITY 5/2

# 6 SEAS COURAGE 6/1

PRINCE MAYHEM has a solid shot to take this race. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong Speed Figures (50 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. The class fig of today's affair is much lower than his last affair. DODGE CITY - His 50 average has this gelding with among the best Speed Figures in this event. Handler boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. SEAS COURAGE - This gelding is a solid contender based on his earnings per start in dirt route races. Very solid profits over time for this jock and trainer combo.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8550 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 117 LBS. ALLOWED 1 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 3 FASHIONABLY EARLY 5/2

# 1 JOSEPHINE MARIA 3/1

# 5 JUMP AND RUN 10/1

FASHIONABLY EARLY has a very good shot to take this race. Has performed solidly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 57 avg speed fig. Ought to go to the front end and should never look back. Is a solid contender - given the 52 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. JOSEPHINE MARIA - Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Velez has one of the top winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. JUMP AND RUN - Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. Handler has solid win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Emerald Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#2 STORMIN NORMA L (ML=7/2)
#5 SKATE AWAY (ML=2/1)


STORMIN NORMA L - Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race. She finished 2nd August 20th, but was well clear of the third horse. The improved speed figs over the last three races is solid. Harwood drops her in this race in great shape. SKATE AWAY - This horse picks up a lot of money per start. I believe she can augment the lifetime total in this race. I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good race within the last month or so. A strong handicapping angle is 1st time Lasix. Koler gives it to this one for this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KAIULANI (ML=4/1), #6 SPACE MONKEY (ML=9/2), #7 U K TRAMPOLINER (ML=6/1),

KAIULANI - This entrant hasn't shown very much in the last couple affairs. This horse ran a most unsatisfactory fig last time around the track. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that figure. SPACE MONKEY - Doesn't look to be in a strong situation in today's event. U K TRAMPOLINER - Not likely that this pony will be at her best today off the long vacation. Maybe next out. Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair in the last two months. Not the greatest of indicators. This filly earned a speed figure in her last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - STORMIN NORMA L - This filly has the top speed figure last race with a very good 60. She is the top gamble here.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 STORMIN NORMA L is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington (3rd) Five Green Stars, 3-1
(7th) Lil Rum Tum, 7-2


Belterra Park (1st) Vern's Mocha Rose, 7-2
(5th) Silver Stacker, 5-1


Canterbury (2nd) She's a Corker, 5-1
(5th) Discreetly Grand, 6-1


Charles Town (1st) Twisted Castle, 7-2
(8th) Denise of Cork, 4-1


Del Mar (6th) Saldamente, 10-1
(8th) Sergio, 4-1


Delaware Park (3rd) Just Irish, 8-1
(8th) Captain's Affair, 5-1


Emerald Downs (1st) Possible Spider, 3-1
(7th) Algenon, 7-2


Finger Lakes (4th) Beautiful Success, 3-1
(5th) Channel Boy, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Jicama, 9-2
(7th) Macho Bueno. 5-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Ocala Spirit, 6-1
(13th) Grand Venezuelan, 4-1


Indiana Grand (4th) Heronetta, 5-1
(8th) Flashy Silver, 9-2


Kentucky Downs (2nd) Sugar Cube, 7-2
(10th) Caroline Test, 10-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Shinguard, 7-2
(7th) She's Foxy, 10-1


Monmouth Park (1st) Captain Stan, 7-2
(8th) Golden Rivet, 8-1


Mountaineer (3rd) Victory Slide, 7-2
(8th) Izapickler, 4-1


Parx Racing (2nd) C W Road, 5-1
(5th) He's Got Talent, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Corsotorphine, 4-1
(6th) Here's a Reminder, 4-1


Remington Park (1st) Exy Xanadu, 8-1
(7th) Stormquility, 3-1


Retama Park (1st) Bell Bottom, 5-1
(5th) Betcho, 6-1


Saratoga (1st) E Warfare, 6-1
(11th) Suffused, 4-1


Suffolk Downs (5th) Convertible, 6-1
(9th) Late Caller, 6-1


Thistledown (3rd) Cant Buy Cool, 7-2
(7th) Mo Dont No, 4-1


Woodbine (2nd) Never Worn, 8-1
(5th) Arthur's Pass, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arlington - Race #6 - Post: 4:39pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,800 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#7 DOROTHE MARIE (ML=3/1)


DOROTHE MARIE - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last contest at Arlington where she ended up fifth on the soft turf. Expect better today. This equine is number one in earnings per start (EPS). She looks sharp in today's affair. Hellman moves this filly to the dirt today. Look for improvement from the most recent turf race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DABRIA (ML=5/2), #2 UNKNOWN BLESSING (ML=7/2), #8 WINDOW DRESSING (ML=4/1),

DABRIA - You believe this horse is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. UNKNOWN BLESSING - Not easy to support any vulnerable equine in a short distance event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. WINDOW DRESSING - Hard to put any dough on this mare on the win end. Likes to end up on the board though. This rallier looks to have no chance without a speed battle up front.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 DOROTHE MARIE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with 4

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #10 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:47 PM EASTERN POST

THE WOODWARD STAKES

9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $600,000.00 PURSE

#3 FROSTED
#9 MUBTAAHIJ
#4 BRADSTER
#6 SAMRAAT

The Woodward is named in memory of William Woodward, Sr. who was chairman of the Jockey Club from 1930 to 1950 and whose Belair Stud colors were carried to victory by father-son Triple Crown winners Gallant Fox and Omaha and champions such as Nashrullah, Nashua, Granville and Johnstown. Horses bred by Belair won every major stakes in America as well as the Epsom Oaks, St. Leger Stakes, and 1000 Guineas in Britain. The Woodward, run through the years as a handicap, a weight-for-age event and an allowance stakes, was inaugurated in 1954 at Belmont Park and also was run several times at Aqueduct before being moved to Saratoga with the expansion of the meet to include Labor Day in 2006. Spectacular Bid's victory in 1980 was the first American walkover since Calumet Farm's Coaltown won the 1949 running of the Edward Burke Handicap at Havre de Grace, Maryland. Here in the 63rd running of this Grade I event, #3 FROSTED, shares the speed honors with #4 BRADESTER, and comes off impressive, back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in Grade I events, the Whitney Stakes here at Saratoga, and the Metropolitan Handicap back in early August at Belmont Park.Jockey Joel Rosario and Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin send him to the post for the "Saturday Feature" ... they've hit the board with 51% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #9 MUBTAAHIJ, an Irish-bred entry, comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN BOARD HITS" in his last two starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

September Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Much like our waistlines after a tasty Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate September, the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL crash onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail.

The question is which ones can we count on and which ones figure to be candidates for offseason Weight Watchers meetings?

Check it out.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s September’s list.

Enjoy the games.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 12-2 (8-1 H)

For nearly two full seasons, Arrieta has been as good as it gets in baseball as a starting pitcher. While strikeouts have been down a bit and walks are up of late, at this time it hard to find fault with a hurler who has opposing batters hitting below .200 against him and has a 2.84 ERA to start the month.

Cole, Gerrit - 14-3 (6-0 H)

The Pittsburgh ace has frankly had a mediocre injury-plagued season and on August 27th had an MRI on his elbow, which revealed no damage. If Pirates the are going to snare a third consecutive Wild Card bid, they will need the Cole of the past two years. Note: Cole’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

*Grenike, Zack - 13-3 (7-1 H)

Greinke's ERA is higher than past year's but pitching in thinner air of Arizona has contributed to this. While the Diamondbacks have little too play for, expect Grienke to be tough as nails like usual.

Hamels, Cole - 12-5 (6-2 H)

Need a big game pitched in September? It’s hard to go wrong with Hamels, whose ERA of 2.91 is well below career mark of 3.26. Still owns lively fastball and changeup is knee-buckling. A true professional.

*Jimenez, Ubaldo - 12-1 (6-0 H)

Still toeing the rubber every five days or for Baltimore in spite of mid-sixes ERA. Baltimore has few options and Jimenez is not trustworthy in the bullpen either. Orioles need big month from their big man to reach the playoffs and this is his best month.

*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (6-1 A)

Kershaw threw in simulated game on August 30 and later said "feeling really good" and if all goes well, the Dodgers hope Kershaw can pitch in September and beyond in some role, which only makes the Dodgers a bigger threat. Best pitcher in baseball.

Kluber, Corey - 10-3 (5-1 A)

Has been back to Cy Young form since the All-Star break with an ERA under 2.00 and Cleveland has won his last six outings. When he commands both sides of dish with fastball, for whatever reason, his curveball has more break. A true established ace for the Tribe trying to win the division.

Koehler, Tom - 10-5 (5-1 A)

Been very effective in a quiet way nationally, but has been extremely dependable for two months leading to this month for Miami, supplying six to seven solid innings per start. If he's throwing strikes inside to batters, he’s tough to hit. Note: Koehler’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

Peavy, Jake - 11-3 (5-1 H)

Went on DL in late August with lower back strain. Had been working out of bullpen most of August and future status with San Francisco is as cloudy as the weather in the Bay.

*Price, David - 12-5 (7-2 H)

After a largely below season in Boston, Price has been much sharper in latter stages of August, which is what the Red Sox need. What has changed is Price became more effective in keeping the ball lower and is getting more fly ball outs as a power pitcher, which are genuinely more routine.

*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-3 H)

After a somewhat slow start, Scherzer has been getting better and better and base hits allowed are well below innings pitched (128 vs. 190), yet walking few batters (45), especially compared to strikeouts (238). Back to pacing around mound like the king of the jungle.

*Shields, James - 13-4 (8-0 A)

It has been a wild ride for Shields this season, with numerous hideous outings blended in with several sharp ones. At this stage, hard to think the 34-year righty can duplicate the past seasons.

Strasburg, Stephen- 9-4 (5-1 A)

Starts the month on the DL after some very ugly starts last month. If Washington is to do anything in the postseason, Strasburg needs to regain early season form, which features moving fastball and big breaking curve.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 11-4 (6-2 A)

If rehab assignments go well, September 10th is target date for return. Zimmermann has not been very effective for quite some time and easy to forget he had ERA of 2.45 in mid-May, compared to current 4.44.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Hellickson, Jeremy - 2-10 (1-5 H)

All things considered, Hellickson has not had a bad year in Philadelphia. However, upon closer inspection, most of his numbers are now near career norms and if that ends being the same this month, real bet against potential.

Leake, Mike - 5-10 (1-7 A)

The Cardinals right-hander has been a lot like his teams, when Leake has been good, he and St. Louis have generally won, when not they have too often lost badly. Cards are hoping not to see a repeat performance from the veteran.

Ross, Tyson - 3-11 (1-6 A)

Started on Opening Day and has not been seen since for San Diego with bum shoulder. Still trying to work way bad through rehab. Probably best to forget 2016.

*Sale, Chris - 2-12 (0-8 A)

It is almost unimaginable Sale could have a record like this in September, yet he does. Part of it is the White Sox offense is too unreliable and Sale's miscues end up being quite costly. Let's see what the final month brings for the big lefty.