Saturday 9/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 14 CFL

Winnipeg (8-4) @ Calgary (10-1-1)– Stampeders won 36-22/33-18 in two games vs Winnipeg this year; they’re 15-1 in last 16 series games, winning last 13 games played here (3-1-2 last six vs spread). Bombers won their last seven games after a 1-4 start; they’re 3-1 as a road dog this season. Winnipeg is 5-1 SU on road, with only loss 36-22 at Calgary in Week 2; Bombers are 3-1 as road dogs. Calgary won its*last nine games, covered its last seven; they’re 6-0 SU at home, 5-1 vs spread as home favorites. **

Hamilton (6-6) @ Saskatchewan (2-10)– TiCats pounded Saskatchewan 53-7 on August 20; they’ve won four in row over the Riders, with all four wins by 10+ points. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Roughriders snapped an 8-game skid with an OT win over Edmonton LW; Riders are 2-4 SU at home, covering three of last four in Regina (3-1 as home dog). Hamilton is 1-4 vs spread in game following a win this year; they’ve lost last four road games SU, are 1-2 vs spread as road favorites this year. *

— Underdogs*29-20-1, home teams 19-32-2 vs spread…….Over: 25-26-2

— Winnipeg Blue Bombers*@ Calgary Stampeders (-9.5, 53.5)
— Hamilton Tiger Cats (-5, 53) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Opening Line Report: A Big Ten showdown highlights the Week 4 betting board
By PATRICK EVERSON

A Big Ten showdown highlights a solid Week 4 of the college football season. We talk about the opening lines for four key matchups with John Lester, senior lines manager.

No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (no line)

These two unbeaten teams are prepping for a Big Ten battle in East Lansing. The Spartans (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) raced out to a 36-7 lead at Notre Dame on Saturday and held on for the 36-28 upset as 7.5-point underdogs.

Wisconsin (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) passed a stern test against Louisiana State at Lambeau Field in Week 1, notching a 16-14 upset catching 12.5 points. The Badgers then routed Akron in Week 2, but had their hands full Saturday in a 23-17 home win over Georgia State as a huge 35.5-point fave.

“We’ll hold off on posting a line until we have more information about the health of Corey Clement,” Lester said of the Badgers running back who sat out Saturday with an ankle injury. “It’s a different offense without him. These are two teams with very similar styles, which makes it feel like it could be a grind-it-out game.”

The Badgers and Spartans haven’t met since the 2012 season.

No. 6 Stanford Cardinal at UCLA Bruins (+2)

Stanford is out of the gate with a 2-0 SU and ATS mark, though both those victories came at home. On Saturday, Christian McCaffery and Co. posted a 27-10 victory over Southern California as a 7.5-point favorite.

UCLA (2-1 SU) already has three games in the books but has yet to cover the spread. The Bruins bested BYU 17-14 Saturday, falling just short as 3.5-point road chalk.

“The days of Stanford sneaking up on people are long gone,” Lester said. “The talk is all Christian McCaffrey, but the defense has been better than the offense up to this point. UCLA has been anything but impressive, but this is a good spot for them. Still, I fully expect the spread to quickly move in favor of Stanford.”

The Cardinal have won the last eight in this Pac-12 rivalry, going 7-1 ATS, including a 56-35 home win last year giving 6.5.

No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 21 Mississippi Rebels (-7)

The Kirby Smart era is off to a good start for Georgia in the SU win column, if not at the betting window. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS, including a 28-27 victory over Missouri on Saturday laying 7 points on the road.

Mississippi (1-2 SU and ATS) could easily be 3-0, but can’t find a way to hold huge leads. The Rebels had Florida State in a 28-6 hole in Week 1, but lost 45-34 as a 4-point neutral-site pup. Ole Miss whacked Wofford in Week 2, then had No. 1 Alabama on the ropes Saturday with a 24-3 lead. But the Rebels gave it all back and then some, losing 48-43 while cashing as a 10-point home ‘dog.

Still, Mississippi opened a touchdown favorite.

“You have to wonder how much get-up the Rebels have left in the tank after two mentally tough losses,” Lester said. “That said, Georgia hasn’t really looked dialed in with the new coaching regime, and this is a chance for Ole Miss to get going in the right direction. Talent and experience is enough to give the home team a full touchdown.”

No. 3 Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+9.5)

Clemson (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS), which lost to Alabama in the national title game last year, opens ACC play following a 59-0 shellacking of FCS foe South Carolina State, cashing as a monster 53.5-point home favorite. Georgia Tech (3-0 SU, 1-0-1 ATS) comes in off a 38-7 rout of Vanderbilt giving 6.5 points at home.

Clemson has won three of the last four SU and ATS in this rivalry, including a 43-24 victory laying 7.5 at home last season.

“This is certainly an opponent Clemson can’t look past, with the big game against Louisville on deck,” Lester said. “It’s always difficult to prepare for the triple-option attack, but the Tigers basically had an off week to do just that last week.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto

While Tennessee has yet to live up to lofty expectations through the first three weeks of the college football season and hasn’t beaten Florida in their last 11 meetings, oddsmakers have installed the Volunteers as solid favorites for their Week 4 clash against the Gators.

On Sunday, the Wynn opened Tennessee -8, Las Vegas’ first number on the game, and the line was bet down to -7 by Monday morning. William Hill and the Westgate both opened Tennessee -6.5.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, particularly on defense for Tennessee, while Gators quarterback Luke Del Rio has been ruled 'out' for Saturday.

The Vols are 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread, having failed to cover in closer-than-anticipated games against FBS Appalachian State (20-13 in OT) and Ohio from the MAC (28-13). In Week 2 against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway, Tennessee had to come back after spotting the Hokies two early touchdowns.

“They’re obviously playing awful football,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons.

But Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., expects a better effort from Butch Jones’ men against the Gators.

“Tennessee was probably overpriced to start the year and they’ve underperformed to what people thought they would do,” Bogdanovich said. “But this is the real week. The earlier weeks were practices. This is prime time.”

With Purdue transfer Austin Applebee getting the start in place of Del Rio, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews isn’t sure there’s been a big enough adjustment to the betting line.

Andrews opined, “Tennessee is probably the right side in this game, mostly because of the quarterback situation in Florida. I thought it would be 6 with Del Rio. To me, this isn’t enough of an adjustment.”

Let’s buzz through some of the other key games on the Week 4 college football card:

Clemson (-9) at Georgia Tech, Thursday, Sept. 22

Clemson opened -11 at the Wynn, but action on Georgia Tech pushed the line down to -9 on Monday. These underdog bettors probably noticed the Tigers have lost in their last five visits to Georgia Tech.

While Clemson, after an historic season last year, hasn’t come firing out of the gate, Andrews sees improvement on the horizon and doesn’t agree with the early move on the 'dog.

“I liked the opening number, to be honest with you,” Andrew said. “Clemson has not been playing their best ball yet, but I think they’re on the verge of playing a good one.”

USC at Utah (-2), Friday, Sept. 23

Folks are down on USC. Two losses in the first three weeks of the season will do that. Those losses, though, came against Alabama at a neutral site and at Stanford. Are the Trojans now underrated because of their 1-2 record?

Possibly, said Bogdanovich, but a trip to Utah isn’t necessarily the way to get a season back on track.

“They’re still pretty young, and there were times during both of those (losses) they actually looked pretty good,” Bogdanovich said. “They may be a little underrated, but this is a brutal place to play, and considering two of their first three games were absolutely brutal, it wouldn’t surprise me if they lost this one, too.”

Andrews believes USC’s issues go beyond a tough early schedule.

“I really dislike the coaching for Southern Cal. I don’t think (Clay) Helton is the answer,” he said. “I think it was a very poor choice on their part. They’ve been extremely inconsistent. I’d say the opposite about Utah – they’re a very well-coached team and don’t have nearly the talent level (of USC), but they give you an honest effort every time out.”

Penn State at Michigan (-18.5), Saturday, Sept. 24

This betting line on this Big 10 battle saw a significant early move, as the Wynn opened Michigan -15.5 on Sunday and was bet up to -18.5 by Monday morning.

While the Wolverines are a team the public loves to bet on, it is sharp money that moves the line so early in the week. Still, this public sentiment may have indirectly prompted the 3-point swing.

“It could have been some wiseguys jumping in front of the squares,” Bogdanovich explained. “Sometimes that has to happen. If a sharp wants to play a favorite, sometimes he knows he better get on it early, or else he’s going to be laying a worse number come the weekend.”

At a number this big, Andrews said, “there might be a little value on Penn State. Their defense is pretty good, their quarterback Trace McSorley is not bad. If anything, Michigan may be a little overrated. The wiseguys came in against them with Colorado (last week), and I think that was definitely the right side” (Michigan won 45-28, failing to cover as an 18-point favorite).

Wisconsin at Michigan State (-6), Saturday, Sept. 24

Early Bettors went line shopping on this Big 10 clash, as Michigan State -5 hung at CG Technology was bet up to -6, while William Hill moved from -6.5 to -6, and the Westgate from -6 to -5.5.

The Badgers struggled at home against Georgia State last week, but got a bit of an offensive jolt when they subbed redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook in for Bart Houston. Hornibrook is expected to start vs. Sparty on Saturday.

Michigan State, meanwhile, was uber-impressive in its win as seven-point underdogs at Notre Dame. Salmons, though, cautions the Spartans have thrived in the underdog role. When they’re favored, it’s been a different story.

“For whatever reason, they really play well in the role of an underdog against teams that are somewhat their equal,” Salmons said. “But they’ve just been awful laying points” (MSU is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as chalk).

Salmons and Andrews both have high praise for Spartans coach Mark DAntonio.

“He’s right up there with Saban and Meyer,” said Andrews. “Those guys gets the Nos. 1 and 2 recruiting classes virtually every year, and he’s getting two- and three-star athletes and producing these kinds of teams consistently. This guy is one of the great coaches in college football.”

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-6), Arlington, Tex., Saturday, Sept. 24

Favorite bettors evidently loved the opening number on this game, Texas A&M -3, pushing the line up the ladder to -6.

The Razorbacks and Aggies have played overtime games against each other in back-to-back seasons, and while A&M won both of those games, the closeness of the contests makes those points enticing.

“A&M is really good, there’s no doubt they’re playing really good ball,” said Andrews. “But I kind of like Arkansas with the points. I think it’s a pretty good outfit, and I think it’s going to be a really tight game.”

Andrews said with the game at AT&T Stadium, Texas A&M gets some, but not full, home-field advantage in terms of the point spread.

Georgia at Ole Miss (-7), Saturday, Sept. 24

While Ole Miss was bet up from -6 to -7 in the first 24 hours of wagering, Bogdanovich sees this game coming at a bad time for the Rebels.

“Georgia got outplayed in Missouri (last week) and got away with one,” Bogdanovich said. “But is there worse possible spot in the world for Ole Miss? They left everything in the field (in a 48-43 loss to Alabama), and that’s the biggest game they’ll play all year. They could have won it – had a big lead, let it slip away – and Alabama is super physical. So not only are you now physically exhausted, you’re mentally exhausted, too. I don’t know how Ole Miss gets up for this one.”

LSU (-3.5) at Auburn, Saturday, Sept. 24

While each week seems to lend more evidence to the notion that Auburn has devolved to a middling college football team, LSU hasn’t been setting the world on fire either, falling well short of national title-type expectations placed upon them ahead of the season.

Two of the bookmakers we spoke to offered differing opinions about LSU, which last week opened a 20-0 lead at Mississippi State but had to hold on for the 23-20 win.

“They got up and sometimes you just go to sleep, and that’s what happened in that game,” Bogdanovich said. “LSU will only get better. They’re pretty young, and when they’re focused, they’re pretty good. I think it’s a pretty good spot for LSU.”

What say you, Chris?

“LSU is just not that good,” Andrews said. “They let a big lead slip away last week. They lost to Wisconsin who maybe isn’t that good. I kind of like Auburn with the points. We know they’re not that good, but I think we’re still kind of kidding ourselves about LSU. Especially when you get them away from Baton Rouge, they’re not going to be that strong.”

Stanford (-3) at UCLA, Saturday, Sept. 24

The -2.5 the Wynn hung on Stanford was too good to pass up, as bettors laid the short price with a Cardinals teams that has dominated the Bruins in modern times. Stanford has beaten UCLA eight times in row, covering the spread in seven of those games, and in none of those matchups have bookmakers asked Stanford to lay a smaller number than they’re laying this week.

Early line moves

Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the favorites’ direction in the first 24 hours of wagering a the Wynn.

East Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Opening line: Va Tech -9.5
After 24 hours: Va Tech -12

Penn State at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -15.5
After 24 hours: Michigan -18.5

Wake Forest at Indiana
Opening line: Indiana -5.5
After 24 hours: Indiana -7.5

BYU at West Virginia
Opening line: WVU -3.5
After 24 hours: WVU -6.5

Georgia Southern at Western Michigan
Opening line: WMU -4
After 24 hours: WMU -7

Louisville at Marshall
Opening line: Louisville -22.5
After 24 hours: Marshall -25.5

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Opening line: Texas A&M -3
After 24 hours: Texas A&M -6

UT-San Antonio at Old Dominion
Opening line: ODU -1.5
After 24 hours: ODU -4

Here are games that moved at least 2 points in the underdog’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering the Wynn.

Clemson at Georgia Tech
Opening line: Clemson -11
After 24 hours: Clemson -9

TCU at SMU
Opening line: TCU -24
After 24 hours: TCU -22

Syracuse at UConn
Opening line: UConn -6
After 24 hours: UConn -4

Mississippi State at UMass
Opening line: Miss State -25
After 24 hours: Miss State -22.5

Charlotte at Temple
Opening line: Temple -29.5
After 24 hours: Temple 27.5

Florida at Tennessee
Opening line: Tennessee -8
After 24 hours: Tennessee -6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys have flagged these college football games as lines to watch for Week 4
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Iowa (-13.5) at Rutgers

This line briefly opened -13 and quickly moved to -14 on Sunday night. However, it has since come back down to -13.5 in most locations. The public will likely push this line back up to the key number of -14 or more later this week. Iowa will be in a foul mood after losing 23-21 at home last Saturday as a -14.5 point favorite versus North Dakota State. However, the Bison have won the FCS national championship for five straight seasons and they have now defeated six straight FBS opponents. Iowa will actually be facing a weaker opponent at Rutgers this week.

Iowa won their other two games by 24 and 39 point margins this season. Rutgers has already lost by 35 points against Washington this month and the Scarlet Knights have absolutely no passing attack. Rutgers is averaging just 5.1 yards per pass and only 50.5% completions (versus opponents that allow 6.1 ypp and 58.7%). This makes a backdoor cover late in the game less likely.

Spread to wait on

Louisville at Marshall (+25.5)

Louisville opened as a -24 point road favorite and was quickly bet up to -25.5. The public will likely continue to push this line higher, especially after last week's impressive 63-20 blowout win versus Florida State. However, this is a terrible scheduling situation for Louisville. The Cardinals are coming off two national TV conference wins and have another huge game on deck next week at Clemson.

Marshall is coming a bad home loss last week as a -17.5 point favorite versus Akron. The Herd suffered from a 4-1 turnover deficit in that game, but still gained 560 total yards. Marshall has enough offense to trade points with Louisville as the Herd is averaging 50 points per game this season on 545 total yards per game (6.9 yards per play).

Total to watch

California at Arizona State (82.5)

California had the highest total last week versus Texas (O/U 80.5) and those two teams combined to score 93 points in a 50-43 California home win as a +7.5 point underdog. Arizona State had the highest posted total two weeks ago (O/U 80) versus Texas Tech in the Sun Devils 68-55 home win.

Now these two teams once again find themselves with the highest posted total on the board. This O/U line opened 80.5 and was quickly bet up to 82.5. California is averaging 47.0 points per game on 580 yards (6.6 yards per play), while allowing 39.7 ppg and 504 yards (6.5 yppl). Arizona State is averaging 48.0 points per game on 526 yards (6.5 yppl), while allowing 32.0 ppg and 453 yards (6.5 yppl). These two teams played last season and the game soared Over the posted total (O/U 68) with 94 total points scored in a 48-46 California home win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams

2016 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-2 0-2 1-1-1 1-2
Clemson 3-0 0-0 1-2 0-3
Duke 1-2 0-1 1-2 0-3
Florida State 2-1 0-1 1-1 2-0
Georgia Tech 3-0 1-0 1-0-1 0-1-1
Louisville 3-0 2-0 3-0 3-0
Miami (Fla.) 3-0 0-0 3-0 2-1
North Carolina 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1
North Carolina State 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-0-1
Pittsburgh 2-1 0-0 0-3 2-1
Syracuse 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2
Virginia 0-3 0-0 1-1-1 0-2-1
Virginia Tech 2-1 1-0 1-2 2-1
Wake Forest 3-0 1-0 1-2 1-2


Clemson at Georgia Tech (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Clemson finally jump-started its flagging offense in a 59-0 whitewash of FCS South Carolina State, gaining confidence ahead of its first league game against the Yellow Jackets. The Tigers head to Bobby Dodd Stadium as 10-point favorites looking to end a 6-0 ATS run by home teams in this series. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. Neither side has a very good mark against the number lately, as the Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their past 14 ACC games, and 2-7 ATS in their past nine road outings. The Ramblin' Wreck are 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 games overall, 1-7 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four ACC outings. The under is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings in this series in Atlanta.

Florida State at South Florida (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles left Louisville last weekend with their tails between their legs after being socked with a rolled up newspaper, 63-20. It was the most points scored against FSU ever, as the Cardinals served notice to the league and the rest of the country that they are for real. Is FSU for real? We saw them fall behind by three scores against Ole Miss in their opener before coming back, they beat up FCS Charleston Southern and then were pounded by the Cards. FSU is a hard team to figure right now. Now, they face a South Florida team which is hitting on all cylinders. The Bulls are 3-0 SU/ATS with wins against Towson, Northern Illinois and at Syracuse. While that isn't exactly facing a murderer's row, they have scored at least 45 in each of their three games, winning by an average of 34.0 points per game (PPG). Despite getting whaled on last week, the 'Noles are still 6-2 ATS in their past eight, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six following a straight-up loss. They head to the Ray Jay as six-point favorites.

Central Michigan at Virginia (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan hits the road for Charlottesville looking to keep Virginia down. The Chippewas are 3-0 SU/ATS, including a signature win and cover at Oklahoma State, albeit controversial. The Cavaliers have had quite the opposite road, going 0-3 SU and 1-1-1 ATS. Virginia has been improving since being shellacked in their opener by FCS Richmond. The Cavaliers led 10-3 late at Connecticut before falling 13-10. The 'under' is 2-0-1 for UVA so far, while the 'over' is 2-1 for the Chips. CMU is 10-2 ATS in the past 12 road games, but 1-6 ATS in their past seven against ACC foes. UVA is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine, but 1-3-1 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts.

East Carolina at Virginia Tech (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
East Carolina heads to Blacksburg looking to keep their impressive win streak against ACC teams alive. The Pirates have won six straight wins against ACC foes, covering each of the past five. The Pirates are 11-point underdogs, and they have won five straight against the ACC as underdogs. They're also an impressive 7-0 ATS in their past seven against ACC foes, including a win against North Carolina State at home earlier in the month. The Pirates have covered each of their past four meetings aginst the Hokies, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series. Virginia Tech enters 7-18-2 ATS in their past 27 non-conference tilts.

Syracuse at Connecticut (CBS Sports Network, 1:00 p.m.)
The Orange step outside of the conference, giving UConn a second straight ACC foe to face at home. Last week UConn picked up a 13-10 win, coming back late. The Orange haven't been very good on the road, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven tries away from the Carrier Dome. The Huskies haven't had a lot of success at home, going 4-10-1 ATS in their past 15, 6-17-3 ATS in their past 26 non-confernce tilts and 4-15-3 ATS in their past 22 against teams with a losing overall record. These teams have met rather frequently over the years, with the favorite 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, and the home team 7-2 ATS in the past nine. Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in the past six in this series, and 0-4 ATS in their past four trips to Storrs.

Duke at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)
Is the feel-good story for Duke over? Well, it certainly seems that way, as they lost at home to Wake Forest and at Northwestern in back-to-back games. Of course, the good feelings are over at Notre Dame, too, as they opened with a loss at Texas, and took it on the chin against Michigan State last weekend. Still, the Irish enter as a near three-touchdown favorite in this one. The Blue Devils have been successful on the road in recent seasons during the impressive run, going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 away from Wallace Wade. They're also 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 against non-conference foes. The Irish have covered just two of the past seven against non-conference foes, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six at home against teams with a losing road record.

Pittsburgh at North Carolina (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Pittsburgh and North Carolina get together in a battle of teams which have been struggling defensively. The Tar Heels cannot stop anyone on the ground, which bodes well for Pittsburgh and their strong run game. And the Panthers cannot stop anyone through the air, which bodes well for Mitch Trubisky and the Air Raid Tar Heels offense. The Panthers have failed to cover in each of their past five outings, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning overall record. The Tar Heels are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 against winning teams, and 21-6 ATS in their past 27 at home against teams with a winning road record. The over is 9-3 in Pitt's past 12 against teams with a winning record, while UNC has hit the over in seven in a row against teams with a winning overall record. The over is also 4-1 in UNC's past five league games. The total is set at 68.

Wake Forest at Indiana (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m.)
Of all the matchups in Week 4, how many pegged Wake-IU as a battle of unbeatens? Wake is already halfway to bowl eligibility, but they'll need to try to win Saturday without QB Kendall Hinton (knee) and RB Cade Carney (knee), two vital cogs who are OUT. Indiana is favored by 7 1/2 as of Wednesday morning, looking to improve to 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 at 'The Rock' against a team with a winning road record. The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their past six overall against teams with a winning record, however. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in Wake's past five non-conference tilts, and 5-1 in their past six road outings. The 'over is 6-2 in IU's past eight home games, and 5-2-1 in their past eight non-conference battles.

Louisville at Marshall (CBS Sports Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Louisville gutted the second-ranked team in the nation last week, now they hit the road for Marshall as 25-point favorites. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five overall. The Cardinals used to play in Conference USA and ran that league. They're 16-5 ATS in their past 21 against C-USA teams, and 28-11 ATS in their past 39 road outings overall. Marshall certainly has been no slouch over the years, especially in Huntington. However, perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this marquee game, as Akron came in last week and humbled them 65-38. They're still 16-6 ATS in their past 22 at home. However, they're just 1-6 ATS in their past seven following a double-digit loss at home.

Other Games
Wagner at Boston College (ACC Network, 1:00 p.m.)

Bye Weeks
Miami-Florida, North Carolina State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams

2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 3-0 0-0 0-3 0-3
Iowa State 0-3 0-1 1-2 1-2
Kansas 1-2 0-0 1-2 1-2
Kansas State 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
Oklahoma 1-2 0-0 0-3 2-1
Oklahoma State 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1
Texas 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1
Texas Christian 2-1 1-0 0-3 3-0
Texas Tech 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1
West Virginia 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1


Texas Christian at Southern Methodist (Fri. ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
TCU heads to Dallas on Friday night looking to build upon last weekend's 41-20 league opener win against Iowa State. For the third consecutive game, however, they failed to cover while the 'over' cashed for a third straight game. TCU's offense has been hot, scoring at least 38 points in each of their three games, while allowing 34.0 points per game (PPG). SMU picked up a cover for a third straight game last weekend against FCS Liberty, but it took an improbable pick-six in the final minute to make it happen. Still, they're 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their three games. SMU's offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, but they could fare well against a TCU defense which has struggled in each of their three games, including allowing 20 to an awful Iowa State team a week ago.

San Jose State at Iowa State (NO TV, 12:00 p.m.)
Iowa State hosts San Jose State, as the Cyclones look for their first victory in four tries. They lost against FCS Northern Iowa in their opener, and then went to Iowa to get battered 42-3. The Cyclones looked their best last week in a 41-20 loss at TCU, but that's not saying much. The Spartans of SJSU were bombed 45-10 in their opener at Tulsa, and rebounded with a 66-35 win over FCS Portland State. They were doubled up 34-17 against Utah last weekend, as their defense continues to be an issue. They have allowed 38.0 PPG through three contests, while scoring 17 or fewer in their two games against FBS foes. Iowa State is winless, but they're installed as a touchdown favorite.

Brigham Young vs. West Virginia (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
BYU's most difficult schedule continues this weekend in Landover, Md. in a neutral-site game against the Mountaineers. The Cougars will be happy not to see another Pac-12 foe this week, after opening 1-2 SU. They dropped a heartbreaker in the Holy War at Utah Sept. 10, losing 20-19. In that game they went for two in the closing moments instead of an extra point to lose. Last weekend they were dumped 17-14 at home against UCLA, barely covering as 3 1/2-point 'dogs at home. BYU has managed to stay perfect at 3-0 ATS, and the 'under' is also a perfect 3-0. West Virginia is unbeaten through two games, and they have had two weeks to prepare for BYU after a bye last weekend. The Mountaineers have averaged 32.0 PPG while allowing 16.0 PPG. WVU is 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games, while the Cougs are 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles, but 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site games.

Oklahoma State at Baylor (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
OK State bounced back rather nicely last weekend after their stunning and controversial loss to Central Michigan two weeks ago. The Cowboys powered past a solid Pitt team by a 45-38 score, now try to keep it going in Waco against a good Baylor team. It's OK State's first trip of the season. They're 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, although the favorite is 13-4 ATS in the past 17 meetings and the home team has covered 10 of the past 14. Baylor has failed to cover in three straight outings to open the season, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games dating back to last season. A lot of bettors might look to the 'over' in this one, and the trends suggest that's a good idea. The over is 8-2 in OK State's past 10, and 6-0 in their past six Big 12 battles. The over is also 28-11-1 in Baylor's past 40 against teams with a winning overall record, and 17-5 in their past 22 home games against a team with a winning road record. Last season it was Baylor winning 45-35 in Stillwater. The total for Saturday night's marquee matchup is 74.

Other Games
Missouri State at Kansas State (NO TV, 7:10 p.m.)

Teams on a bye
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-1 0-0 0-3 1-2
Arizona State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1
California 2-1 0-0 2-1 3-0
Colorado 2-1 0-0 3-0 2-1
Oregon 2-1 0-0 0-2-1 1-2
Oregon State 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2
Southern California 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2
Stanford 2-0 1-0 2-0 0-2
UCLA 2-1 1-0 0-3 1-1-1
Utah 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2
Washington 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1
Washington State 1-2 0-0 2-1 1-2

Southern California at Utah (Fri. - FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Trojans head to Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City trying to avoid a complete disaster to start their season. They were abused by Alabama, and pushed around by Stanford last weekend on 'The Farm'. They can keep their season afloat with a win over the 23rd-ranked team in the nation, but it won't be easy. Utah opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to three. Neither of these teams have been very good against the number lately, with USC 7-20 ATS in their past 27 away from home, and Utah 1-5 ATS in their past six at home. Both teams are also 1-5 ATS in their past six conference tilts. The 'under' might be the play in this one, going 9-3 in USC's past 12 road games and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 conference battles including last week. The under is 5-1 in Utah's past six home games, and 6-1 in the past seven for the Utes at home against a team with a losing road record.

Boise State at Oregon State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
The Beavers of OSU host a good Boise State team which appears poised for a return to the spotlight after a couple of down years by their standards. The Beavers lost on the road to open their season in Minnesota, and came home after 16 days off to beat up on FCS Idaho State, 37-7. The 'under' has hit in both games for Oregon State. The 'under' is 2-0 in two games for Boise State, too, incuding a 31-28 win over Washington State two weeks ago. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games, although just 1-5 ATS in their past six against the Pac-12, including a non-cover against Washington State two weeks ago. The Beavs are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 outside of the conference, 7-19 ATS in their past 26 overall and 5-17 ATS in their past 22 at home.

Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Colorado keeps it on the road for a second straight weekend against a difficult opponent. They fired out to a lead last weekend in Ann Arbor, but ended up falling in the Big House by a 45-28 score. However, the Buffaloes have covered all three of their games to date. For Oregon, they tasted bitter defeat in Lincoln against a Nebraska team headed by former Oregon State leader Mike Riley. The Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 conference tilts, but will have to get by without one of their weapons, as Olympic hurdler and return man Devon Allen (knee) is done for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The Ducks are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 at home, while the Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. The favorite has cashed in five straight in this series, while the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

Stanford at UCLA (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Cardinal head to the Rose Bowl as field goal favorites against the Bruins in a key Pac-12 battle. They beat L.A.'s other team, USC, by a 27-10 count last weekend. The Bruins have already lost in excruciating fashion this season, falling in overtime at Texas A&M in the season opener. They rebounded nicely with wins over UNLV and at BYU over the past two weeks. However, the Bruins have yet to cover in three tries. Stanford is 2-0 ATS in their two games this season and will be a popular choice for the public in their first foray from 'The Farm'. The 'under' is a perfect 2-0 for the Cardinal so far this season, too. Stanford has dominated in his series against the number, going 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 at UCLA. The favorite is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight, while the 'under' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Pasadena.

California at Arizona State (ESPN2, 10:00 p.m.)
The total for this game opener at 82 1/2, and they might be a little bit on the low side if each of these teams play to their capabilities on offense. Cal has scored 40 or more points in all three of their games, while allowing 31 or more points in each of their three games, including 44.0 PPG allowed over the past two. Needless to say, the 'over' is 3-0 in Cal's three games to date. Arizona State is averaging 48.0 PPG through three outings, including 68 against Texas Tech two weeks ago. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two for the Sun Devils. These sides met Nov. 28 last season, and it was Cal coming away with a 48-46 win in Berkeley. The home team is 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series.

Washington at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
The Huskies hit the road for the first time this season, and they hope to roll Arizona like they did in the last meeting on Halloween in 2015. The Huskies trick or treated all over the field against the Wildcats, coming away with a 49-3 victory. Arizona would like nothing more than to return the favor and derail a Washington team with legitimate playoff aspirations. The Wildcats could catch the Huskies peeking ahead to next week's home game in Seattle against Stanford, too. Arizona hasn't been very good at home lately, going 4-11 ATS in their past 15 on home turf while going 2-5 ATS in their past seven against winning teams. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, but the home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the past six.

Team on a bye
Washington State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 4
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois Fighting Illini 1-2 0-0 1-2 1-2
Indiana Hoosiers 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Iowa Hawkeyes 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Maryland Terrapins 3-0 0-0 1-2 0-3
Michigan Wolverines 3-0 0-0 2-1 3-0
Michigan State Spartans 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-0 0-0 2-0-1 1-2
Northwestern Wildcats 1-2 0-0 1-2 0-3
Ohio State Buckeyes 3-0 0-0 3-0 2-1
Penn State Nittany Lions 2-1 0-0 1-2 3-0
Purdue Boilermakers 1-1 0-0 0-2 2-0
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-1 0-0 1-2 3-0
Wisconsin Badgers 3-0 0-0 2-1 1-2


Penn State at Michigan (-19) - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan: The Wolverines just missed a cover last week as their line vs the Buffs opened in the -19.5 range and dropped to -17.5. Michigan won by 17 but it wasn’t easy. The Wolves actually had to play catch up after getting down 21-7 after the 1st quarter with their only TD coming on a blocked punt return. From that point on, they outscored Colorado 38-7 but let’s not forget that Colorado was moving the ball at will vs Michigan before QB Liufau was injured and had to leave the game. At that point the game was a tight one with Michigan leading 31-28. Before Liufau left the game early in the 2nd half, Colorado had 10 offensive possessions, 302 yards, and 28 points. After his departure the Buffs had 6 offensive possessions, 23 yards, and 0 points. Michigan did shore up their run defense, allowing CU just 1.9 YPG, which was a big concern after allowing UCF to rush for 6 YPC the previous weekend. Now the defensive concern shifts to the secondary as Liufau torched them for 246 yards on nearly 10 yards per attempt in just over one half of football. Michigan is at home AGAIN and won’t leave the Big House until they travel to Rutgers on October 8th.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions got their “revenge” on Temple last Saturday after dropping their first game in over 60 years to the Owls last season. PSU came into last year’s game with a 31 game winning streak vs the Owls dating back to 1952. The Nits (-9) overcame 3 turnovers, 2 of which Temple turned into 14 points, and came away with the 34-27 win but missed the cover by a few points. It was the 3rd time in 3 games they’ve scored 30 points after hitting that mark only 3 times all last season. Penn State came into the game banged up with 5 starters out. All 3 starting LB’s are currently out and starting LB Wartman-White is out for the season. Star RB Barkley injured his leg early in the game and carried the ball only 9 times. He continued to play after the injury but didn’t look like himself. Barkley is PSU’s main offensive weapon so we’ll have to keep a close eye on his progress on practice this week. The Lions dominated the stats outgaining Temple by over 2 yards per play (6.6 to 4.5) but the turnovers kept the game closer than in probably should have been.

Last Year: These two met last year in Happy Valley and the Wolverines were favored by -3.5. The Wolves won 28-16 and converted on 50% of their third downs (just 21% for PSU). Michigan held PSU to just 3.8 YPP while gaining 5.0 YPP themselves. The line this year a full 15+ points higher than last year’s number.

Inside the Numbers: This is number currently sits at Michigan -19. Since 1980, PSU has been a dog of more than 19 points only TWICE! The Nits have been a dog of 14 or more just 13 times since 1980 and they are 3-10 ATS in those games. The Wolverines are 50-1 SU the last 51 times they’ve been tabbed a home favorite of 14 or more. PSU has won just 4 of the last 15 games in this Big Ten series. 13 of the 19 games in this series dating back to 1993 have been decided by less than 19 points – which is the current spread on this game.

Iowa (-13) at Rutgers - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers: After getting destroyed by Washington in week 1, the Scarlet Knights have now won 2 consecutive games beating Howard & New Mexico. Last Saturday Rutgers caught the Lobos in a great spot with long travel after blowing a late lead the week before losing to arch rival New Mexico State. While Rutgers won by a final of 37-28, they were far from impressive. The Lobos jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, had more first downs (21 to 14), and more total yardage (+112 yards). That’s nothing new for the Knights who’ve been outscored 59-14 in the 1st quarter this season. Defensively the Knights were torched for almost 300 yards on the ground in that win over New Mexico. Rutgers needs to slow down the “big plays” they are allowing having already given up TD’s of 92, 68, 52, 50, 43, 38, 38, and 36 yards in just 3 games! Offensively this team is averaging just 5.2 YPP despite running over 60% of their plays (137 total plays) vs Howard (already allowed 138 points in 3 games this season) & New Mexico (97th in total defense last year) which will most likely be the two worst defenses they face all season.

Iowa: The Hawks come in off a disappointing loss at home to North Dakota State as 14.5 point favorites. It wasn’t a fluke as the Bison outgained Iowa by 132 yards, outrushed the Hawkeyes by a whopping 205 yards, and had a 13:00 minute time of possession edge. Bison QB Stick completed only 11 passes the entire game and they still beat Iowa on the road. It was NDSU’s SIXTH straight win vs an FBS opponent, all coming on the road! In other words, don’t discount Iowa for losing that game. They were coming off a win over state rival ISU and then simply were beaten by a very good team. It wasn’t a shocker to us for sure. Iowa whipped their first two opponents (Miami Oh & Iowa State) by a combined score of 87-24. After averaging 7.3 yards per play in those first two games, Iowa was held to just 3.9 YPP last week vs NDSU. The Hawks travel away from Iowa City for the first time this season and they’ve been very successful in true road games winning 12 of 15 over the last 3 seasons.

Last Year: This is the first ever meeting between Iowa & Rutgers.

Inside the Numbers: Dating back to the 2004 season, the Hawkeyes have been a road favorite of 10 or more 11 times. They are 1-10 ATS in those games. Going all the way back to 1981, Iowa is 78-60-3 ATS (56.5%) the game following a SU loss. The Scarlet Knights have been a home dog of 10 or more 41 times the last 35 seasons. They have won only ONE of those games outright (1-41 SU record).

Wisconsin at Michigan State (-6) – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State: The Spartans dominated Notre Dame in the trenches last week rushing for 260 yards to just 57 for the Irish. It was the 2nd time in 3 games the Irish defense allowed 235 yards rushing or more. MSU also was able to keep their defense rested with a 15:00 minute time of possession edge. Sparty led 36-7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter and held on as Notre Dame was able to score TD’s on 3 of their final 4 possessions to make it a tight game. The 36-28 outright win as an underdog pushed Sparty’s ATS record to 14-3-1 their last 17 getting points. That includes an impressive 12 outright wins. Defensively State’s run defense was excellent as we said earlier. However, they are not great at putting pressure on the QB as opposing QB’s have dropped back to pass 68 times in 2 games and MSU has picked up only 3 sacks (1 vs Furman & 2 vs Notre Dame). MSU looks very good on the injury front with no key players out in this game.

Wisconsin: Unlike MSU, the Badgers are banged up right now, especially in the offensive backfield. That showed in their uninspiring 23-17 win over Georgia State last week. The Badger ran for just 3.8 YPC last week vs a Georgia State team that ranked dead last in college football in rush defense after the first two weeks of the season. Wisconsin’s top RB Corey Clement sat out with an ankle injury but some of that was precautionary. We expect him back this week although he has been limited in practice this week so this is a wait and see situation. His back-up Taiwan Deal left with a leg injury and may not play. Due the injuries, 4th stringer, freshman Bradrick Shaw, carried the ball 15 times and is also now on the questionable list with a bad shoulder. Wisconsin was able to generate very little on the scoreboard in the first half so head coach Paul Chryst went with back up QB Alex Hornibrook to start the 2nd half. He completed 18 of his 22 passes for over 10 yards per attempt. From what we’re hearing, Hornibrook will make his first start this weekend. It’s not a huge surprise as we were hearing from many UW insiders that Hornibrook actually “beat out” Bart Houston in the pre-season but the coaches wanted to go with the more experienced player vs LSU to open the season. This switch was probably going to happen at some point is isn’t a huge surprise. After leading the nation in scoring defense last year allowing 13.7 PPG, Wisconsin had allowed just 41 points in their 3 games this year (13.6 PPG).

Last Year: These two play in opposite divisions of the Big Ten and have not met since 2012.

Inside the Numbers: The underdog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this Big Ten series. Since 1999, Wisconsin is 34-23-1 ATS as an underdog (59.6%). Somewhat surprisingly, MSU is 6-0 ATS the week after a win over Notre Dame which goes back to 2001. While many concentrate on Ohio State & Michigan when discussing the Big Ten these two sometimes overlooked programs have combined for a 124-37 record since 2010 (MSU is 64-16 & Wisconsin is 60-21).

Nebraska (-7.5) at Northwestern (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Northwestern: The Cats started the season 0-2 losing both games as a favorite to Western Michigan & Illinois State. That made last week’s game vs Duke almost a must win for this program with games vs Nebraska, at Iowa, and at Michigan State on deck. NW did come up with a 24-13 win over Duke last week outgaining the Devils by 10 yards. The Cats offense “exploded” for 406 yards which was the first time in almost a year they topped 400. The last time the Northwestern offense topped 400 yards was last September 27th vs Ball State, a span of 11 games. QB Thorson is completing only 49% of his passes on the season after completing only 50% last year. While the NU defense has allowed only 44 points in 3 games, there are some concerns about the secondary. They are without a few key performers and relatively inexperienced back there. In 3 games this year opponents have completed 83 of 125 (66%) for 784 yards. A key match-up this week will be how that secondary performs against Nebraska’s experienced QB Tommy Armstrong

Nebraska: The Huskers picked up a huge 35-32 home win over Oregon last Saturday. The Ducks scored 5 TD’s in that game but went for 2-points after every scored and failed on 4 of those conversions. Hindsight is always 20/20, however if Oregon simply kicks the extra point each time we may have been looking at a 35-35 game and potential overtime. Nebraska’s run defense was shredded last week for 336 yards on 7.1 yards per carry. The Husker’s balanced offense (220 YPG rushing & 237 YPG passing) is averaging 6.2 YPP after the first 3 games and now must go on the road for the first time this season. However, while this is a road game, Northwestern doesn’t draw very well so we wouldn’t be shocked to see close to half the stadium in Husker red.

Last Year: Northwestern went into Lincoln and pulled off a 30-28 win. It was one of Nebraska’s 5 losses last year by 5 points or fewer. Nebraska was only able to rush for 82 yards on 38 carries and QB Tommy Armstrong threw a pick 6 in that one. The total yardage was close to even, however amazingly the Huskers ran 86 offensive plays to just 56 for Northwestern and still lost. Nebraska was a 7-point favorite in that game and now they are laying basically the same number on the road in this one.

Inside the Numbers: Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, these two have met 5 times with 4 of those games being decided by 3 points or less. Dating back to 1990, the Wildcats have been a home underdog of a TD or more 50 times and they’ve covered 31 of those (62%). Nebraska has a solid 12-8 SU record in their Big Ten road games since joining the league.

Non-Conference Games

Nevada at Purdue (-5.5): This is already Nevada’s 2nd trip to Indiana this year after losing at Notre Dame 2 weeks ago by a final of 39-10…The Wolfpack beat Buffalo last week at home 38-10 running 89 offensive plays (to just 59 for Buffalo)…The win moved Nevada to 2-1 with their other win being a tight 3-point win over Cal Poly…Purdue has had 2 full weeks to get ready for this game after losing 38-20 at home to Cincinnati 2 weeks ago… Score was lopsided but stats were nearly even with the exception of turnovers as Purdue threw 5 interceptions in that loss…The Boilers have won only 6 of their last 36 games dating back to September of 2013…This is the first time Purdue will be favored over an FBS team since the 2014 season…Nevada is averaging 208 YPG rushing and Purdue is allowing 219 YPG on the ground…On the other side of the ball, Nevada’s front 7 on defense is rather small and has been gashed for 284 YPG on the ground so far this season…Nevada is 12-4 ATS their last 16 road games.

Colorado State at Minnesota (-16.5): Gophers will possibly get a big boost this week as RB Shannon Brooks has returned to practice after recovering from a foot injury. How much he plays, if at all, depends on how he progresses in practice this week. Brooks led the Gophs with 709 yards rushing last season…Minnesota had last week off after beating Oregon State and Indiana State to open the season…Minny has 4 players that remain suspended due to an ongoing police investigation including starting CB Hardin and top CB reserve Buford…After putting up 554 total yards in their first 2 games combined, Colorado State switched QB’s to freshman Collin Hill and he led the Rams to 47 points and 569 yards in a win over Northern Colorado last Saturday…Hill will remain under center this week and will be making the first road start of his career…Before last week’s game, CSU was completing only 38% of their passes this season and Hill stepped in and hit on 21 of his 27 attempts…Gophs have been a home favorite of 10 points or more 12 times since the start of the 2007 season. They are 3-9 ATS in those games.

Wake Forest at Indiana (-7.5): IU comes into this one with a 2-0 mark and had last week off…Wake has been a surprise as their win total for the season was set at 5.5 and they are already 3-0 including a win at Duke…That already equals the Demon Deacons win total from all of last year…These two meet last year in Winston Salem and the Hoosiers pushed out to a 31-10 lead midway through the 4th quarter and held on for a 31-24 win…IU was favored by -3.5 on the road in that game…The Deacs offense has put up 24 & 38 points in their last 2 games which is the same number of times this team reached 24 points or higher all of last season…IU’s new QB Lagow has attempted “just” 27 passes per game this year which is down from 35 per game last year when Nate Sudfeld was the QB…The Hoosiers have been very inconsistent on third down with just a 28% success rate and those games were against Ball State and FIU…Wake’s defense allows just 3.91 yards per play this season which is 5th best in the country.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Week 4 pointspread picks and prediction
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Sometimes a successful sports wager proves to be the fruit of countless hours of research and analysis. Other times, profitability can be obtained through simple measures such as the eye test or something as basic as recent history.

As it pertains to Saturday afternoon’s Top-25 showdown between the No. 18 Florida Gators and No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers (3:30 p.m. ET), you’re probably better off relying on a combination of the eye test and recent history.

In regards to the eye test, let’s begin with the fact that Florida head coach Jim McElwain’s defense has surrendered a grand total of just 14 points through three outings this season (vs. Massachusetts, vs. Kentucky, vs. North Texas). In regards to recent history, take note that the Gators are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 road dates and 8-2 ATS over their last 10 matchups against SEC opposition.

As for Butch Jones and his Tennessee program that was so highly regarded entering the 2016 campaign, let’s ask ourselves what exactly this squad has achieved so far this season. After all, the Volunteers needed overtime to squeak by Appalachian State in Knoxville to commence the season (20-13), turned only a few heads in a 45-24 win over a mediocre Virginia Tech team the following week, and then looked below average yet again in a 28-19 victory over Ohio last Saturday.

Oh, did I forget to mention that, as far as recent history is concerned, the Gators have won 11 straight matchups against the Volunteers and are 4-0 ATS over their last four trips to Knoxville?

Sure, Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio is battling a knee injury, but I’ll side with history, defense and Jim McElwain any day of the week over a Tennessee program that has come nowhere close to meeting expectations through the first three weeks of the season.

Pick: Florida +7

Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines

When: Saturday, September 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Michigan -19

No way, no how, no chance Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh allows his Wolverines to start slow in this one after falling behind 21-7 vs. Colorado before rallying to blow out the Buffaloes 45-28 last Saturday.

That type of precision focus spells real bad news for a lackluster Penn State club that is just 3-13-2 ATS over its last 18 road games and 1-6 ATS over its last seven games overall. As far as this Big Ten series is concerned, Michigan is 5-2 ATS over the last seven meetings between these two programs. Don’t overthink this one, as Michigan will roll to victory.

Pick: Michigan -19

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at UCLA Bruins

When: Saturday, September 24 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Stanford -3

Dating back to the end of last season, David Shaw’s buttoned-up Stanford juggernaut has covered four straight spreads by the healthy average of 11.9 points per game. And those were no cakewalk matchups, as the Cardinal’s last four wins have come against USC (twice), Iowa and Kansas State.

The only worry here is that Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey & Co. get caught looking ahead to next week’s marquee road date at undefeated Washington. But Shaw is not the type of coach that allows his troops to read press clippings or lose focus.

Stanford is now 51-24-1 ATS over its last 76 games overall and 5-1 ATS over its last six road dates, while UCLA is 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven home games and 0-5 ATS over its last seven contests overall. If Jim Mora’s Bruins couldn’t cover the number against Texas A&M, UNLV or BYU this season, don’t expect them to suddenly show up and shock the world against one of the most organized coaching staffs in college football.

Pick: Stanford -3

California Golden Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils

When: Saturday, September 24 at 10:00 p.m. ET
Total: 82.5

Back to the well for the second week in a row as it pertains to a California Over, as the Golden Bears defense did nothing in last week’s 50-43 shootout win over Texas to dispel any notion that their defense is capable of achieving stops on a consistent basis.
Cal has now surrendered an average of 39.7 points per game through three outings this season (vs. Hawaii in Australia, at San Diego State, vs. Texas) and has played to the Over in five consecutive outings dating back to last season.

Arizona State is scoring an average of 48 points per game through three contests in 2016 (vs. Northern Arizona, vs. Texas Tech, at UTSA) and has seen the Over go 5-1 over the program’s last six games overall and 5-2 over the Sun Devils’ last seven home dates.

And don’t forget that Cal quarterback Davis Webb transferred over from the Texas Tech system, which scored 55 points against this same Arizona State defense just two weeks ago in a 68-55 thrilling defeat.

Pick: Over 82.5

Last week: 3-1 ATS
Season: 6-6 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 4

The best bets from last week's college football feature proved to be good ones as Oklahoma State and California both got to the window. Cal even won that wild shootout with Texas outright, and those of you that passed up the points there and took the Golden Bears on the money line you ended Saturday on a high note.

This week I'm looking to duplicate those results as we've got plenty of great games on the board, but two situations really stand out.

Best Bet #1: Florida State/South Florida Under 61

Florida State got beat down brutally in every aspect of the game in their big showdown with Louisville last week. That loss definitely put a big damper on the Seminoles hopes of getting back to the College Football Playoff and it will be interesting to see how they respond on the road once again this week. However, one thing that we should see is that Florida State defense come out with a lot of intensity.

Last week's beating in Louisville was notable because the 63 points QB Lamar Jackson and Louisville hung on Florida State was the most a Seminoles team has ever given up in the history of the program. That's particularity embarrassing for a school that prides itself on great defense, and there is no doubt that HC Jimbo Fisher and the rest of his coaching staff have been preaching better defensive play all week. They'll be tested against a South Florida squad that has scored 45 or more in each of their three games so far (all wins), but look for the Seminoles defense to be flying around all over the place and keep the Bulls in check.

The last thing this Seminoles team wants to happen is another horrific defensive performance and they'll right the ship here. They held this same South Florida team to just 14 points a year ago, and before last week's blowout, five straight FSU road tilts had stayed 'under' the number.

South Florida will do their part to keep this one below the 61 total as they'll want to sustain long drives to keep Florida State's offense off the field for as much as possible. The Bulls have yet to allow more than 20 points in any of their games this year, and while they have been against inferior opponents, this game could end up being a defensive battle.

Best Bet #2: Marshall (+26.5)

For those of you that like to look for situational spots like look ahead games and sandwich spots, this is definitely one of the biggest sandwich spots you'll find all year. Marshall is getting nearly 4 TD's against Louisville and this is a very tough sandwich spot for the Cardinals to be in laying that many points on the road. Early money has bumped this line up a bit after opening at -25.5 as bettors firmly believe in Lamar Jackson and Louisville now after they dismantled Florida State, but this simply way too many points here.

Louisville is coming off that huge Top-10 beatdown over the Seminoles to vault themselves in the CFB Playoff conversation. It was a great win, but on deck after this Marshall game is another huge conference matchup with top-five ranked Clemson. It's going to be nearly impossible for the Cardinals to bring the same kind of focus and energy they had vs. Florida State to this road affair with Marshall, especially with one eye looking ahead to Clemson. After all, Marshall is coming their own embarrassing blowout defeat a week ago.

Marshall was shell-shocked against Akron last week as the Thundering Herd were 17-point favorites and lost outright by 27 points. Four turnovers killed Marshall last week as they might have been caught looking ahead themselves to this big match with Louisville. If that was the case, this is tremendous value on a Marshall team that can score with Louisville here, and are getting about a touchdown or more here on the spread compared to what the number would have been had Marshall won and covered the -17.5 points with ease last week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football bettors should temper the "Louisville Lamar" love fest
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

It’s certainly not a stretch to say that after three weeks of highly entertaining college football matchups, the Louisville Cardinals are the betting community’s best friend.

Think about it. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Lamar Jackson & Co. are currently 3-0 SU and ATS while scoring an absurd average of 65 points per game.

Not only that, but Bobby Petrino’s high-flying offense covered a 38.5-point spread in Week 1 by 17.5 points, a 17-point Week 2 spread by 17 points and a 2-point spread against Florida State by 43 points last Saturday. Needless to say, if you’ve been riding the Louisville bandwagon since the beginning of September, life has been good.

And while Louisville’s Week 4 matchup at Marshall appears to be business as usual for the Cardinals, thanks to a pointspread that has already moved from -23.5 to -27.5, we’re here to suggest that Jackson/Petrino ’16 supporters exercise a bit more caution heading into Saturday.

Why? Because this is the ultimate sandwich spot for Louisville.

Ask yourself the following question. If you’re Louisville, how important is a road date at Marshall? Now consider the following information: how important is a road date at Marshall following a marquee win over a Florida State team that used to be ranked No. 2 in the country? Finally, how important is a road date at Marshall following a marquee road win over a Florida State team that used to be ranked No. 2 in the country one week before a high-profile road showdown at undefeated No. 5 Clemson and Heisman hopeful quarterback Deshaun Watson?

That’s right. It’s all about perspective.

None of this is to suggest that Louisville will struggle, or perhaps, lose at Marshall on Saturday. Assuming this program shows up 100 percent focused on the task at hand, Petrino’s Cardinals should smoke a Thundering Herd team that got crushed by a final score of 65-38 versus Akron as a 17.5-point favorite last Saturday.

Still, it’s worth considering the fact that Marshall is 4-0 ATS over its last four games following an ATS loss and 15-2-1 ATS over its last 18 home outings against teams with a winning road record.

Just something to think about.

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule. This week we speak with old friend Chris Andrews, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the sportsbook director at the South Point Casino.

Biggest adjustments made to power rankings after Week 3: “The biggest mover north was Louisville, which is a team I already had ranked pretty high. I actually had the Cardinals favored over Florida State last Saturday, but I still moved them up seven points. Oklahoma, Florida State and USC all dropped four points in my power ratings.”

Any significant action on your championship futures: “Some guys were betting into me on Louisville during the Cardinals-Seminoles game. I was a bit slow moving those odds because some of those same guys were betting into me on Mississippi during the Rebels-Seminoles game back in Week 1.”

Week 4 sharp action: “We’ve taken some smart money on Pittsburgh [at UNC], Wisconsin [at Michigan State], Oklahoma State [at Baylor], Kentucky [vs. South Carolina] and Florida [at Tennessee].”

Week 4 public action: “I see the public coming in on Iowa [at Rutgers], Louisville [at Marshall], West Virginia [vs. BYU], Baylor [vs. Oklahoma State], Texas A&M [vs. Arkansas], LSU [at Auburn], Boise State and Stanford [at UCLA].”

Which teams do you currently feel are overvalued in the betting market: “Iowa, Baylor, Boise State and Cincinnati are on my ‘bet against’ list.”

Which teams do you currently feel are undervalued in the betting market: “Wyoming, Oklahoma State, Arkansas and South Florida.”

TREND OF THE WEEK

We’ll keep this one short and sweet, just like how we expect the game in question to play out.

Penn State hasn’t won a “big game” since November of 2013 when the Nittany Lions, as 25-point underdogs, upset a 9-2 Wisconsin team on the road at Camp Randall Stadium, 31-24. Don’t expect that trend to change this Saturday in Ann Arbor against the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines.

Penn State is 3-13-2 ATS over its last 18 road games, while the Wolverines are a respectable 6-3 ATS in nine home games played under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is currently favored by 18 points over Penn State (3:30 p.m. ET).

BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK

Louisville Cardinals (-23.5 to -27.5) at Marshall Thundering Herd: The public absolutely loves quarterback Lamar Jackson and head coach Bobby Petrino’s high-flying Louisville offense. Beware, however, of the following trend: Marshall is 9-0-1 ATS at home as an underdog of six or more points since 1990.

Kentucky Wildcats (+2 to -2) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: South Carolina is 1-4 ATS over its last five games following a win and 2-5 ATS over its last seven encounters with Kentucky. This series took a unique turn in 2010, when a Gamecocks team that was riding a 10-game winning streak versus the Wildcats fell 31-28 at Kentucky the week after upsetting No. 1 Alabama. This series hasn’t been the same since.

Miami Redhawks (+21 to +17) at Cincinnati Bearcats: Miami is 0-3 on the season, but has found a way to cover the number in two of those matchups (at Iowa, vs. Western Kentucky) and appears to be hitting its stride on the offensive side of the football. Meanwhile, Cincinnati got rocked by No. 6 Houston on its home turf last week (40-16) and has a huge game versus undefeated South Florida on deck. Miami is 5-1 ATS over its last six games following a loss while Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS over its last four home contests and 2-9 ATS over its last 11 matchups overall.

Syracuse Orange (+6.5 to +3) at Connecticut Huskies: After back-to-back home beatdowns suffered at the hands of Louisville (62-28) and South Florida (45-20), Syracuse has an opportunity to get back on track against a Connecticut team that is 5-15-2 over its last 22 games played in the month of September and 4-10-1 ATS over its last 15 home contests. As for the Orange, Syracuse is 12-4 ATS over its last 16 outings after permitting more than 40 points in the previous game.

Duke Blue Devils (+21.5 to +18.5) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: How much does Notre Dame have left in the tank after dropping two of its first three outings to start the season? The Irish are 1-5 ATS over their last six games against teams with a losing record and 2-5 ATS over their last seven games overall. Meanwhile, Duke is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 road dates and 18-7-1 ATS over its last 26 non-conference encounters.

HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH

The leader: Behind Lamar Jackson’s 10 rushing touchdowns (first in NCAA), 464 rushing yards (second in NCAA), 913 passing yards (15th in NCAA) and eight touchdown tosses (16th in NCAA), the Cardinals have risen from a preseason ranking of No. 19 in the Associated Press poll to No. 3 behind only Alabama and Ohio State. Look for another stat-padding performance this at Marshall this Saturday before a Top-5 showdown with Clemson on October 1 that could solidify Jackson’s spot in New York come December.

On the rise: Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State’s all-world running back, is finally getting the recognition he deserves after amassing 501 total rushing yards and six scores over his last two outings (vs. California, at Northern Illinois). Patrick Mahomes cracks the Top 5 on the Heisman Trophy odds board, but don’t expect the nation’s leading passer to earn an invite to the Big Apple if the Red Raiders come up short in marquee games against Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Oklahoma State and/or Baylor. Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard (300/1) and Michigan signal-caller Wilton Speight (300/1) join the list for the first time this week.

Falling down: Two losses in three weeks has dropped Oklahoma standout Baker Mayfield from 10/1 to 100/1 in less than one month. SEC stud ball-carriers Leonard Fournette (LSU) and Nick Chubb (Georgia) continue to slide ever so slightly after failing to meet the lofty expectations imposed upon them during the preseason. UCLA signal-caller Josh Rosen is now listed at 80/1 after opening at a price of 15/1, but could experience a rise in stock with a win over Stanford this Saturday. Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs (300/1) just hasn’t come close to meeting the preseason hype.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 6/5 (100/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 6/1 (12/1)
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 8/1 (5/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 8/1 (7/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 20/1 (30/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 20/1 (30/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 20/1 (50/1)
Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State: 20/1 (100/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 25/1 (6/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 30/1 (10/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 40/1 (25/1)
Kolton Browning, QB, Washington: 40/1 (80/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 50/1 (80/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 50/1 (12/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 50/1 (30/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 50/1 (40/1)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: 60/1 (20/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 60/1 (20/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 60/1 (50/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 60/1 (50/1)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: 80/1 (15/1)
Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss: 80/1 (12/1)
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor: 80/1 (12/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 100/1 (10/1)
Dakota Prukop, QB, Oregon: 100/1 (40/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 100/1 (20/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 100/1 (20/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 100/1 (40/1)
Jalen Hurd, RB, Tennessee: 100/1 (40/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 100/1 (50/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 100/1 (80/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 100/1 (100/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 200/1 (100/1)
Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson: 200/1 (100/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 200/1 (50/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 300/1 (80/1)
Kenny Hill, QB, TCU: 300/1 (100/1)
C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa: 300/1 (300/1)
Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan: 300/1 (300/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 300/1 (30/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 500/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 500/1 (100/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 4

We're on to Week 4 of the college football season and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.

Kent State Golden Flashes at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-44, 50)

* The Golden Flashes are allowing 320 yards per game and have two highly productive defensive players in senior safety Nate Holley and senior defensive end Terence Waugh. Holley (47 tackles) ranks second in the nation with 15.7 stops per contest while Waugh has eight tackles for loss and ranks second in the nation with five sacks. Redshirt freshman quarterback Mylik Mitchell has passed for 353 yards and five touchdowns against one interception while freshman Justin Rankin leads the squad with 178 rushing yards.

* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts proved he was ready for the big stage with 304 yards of total offense (158 passing, 146 rushing) while rallying the Crimson Tide from a 21-point deficit versus Ole Miss. Hurts has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while receiving offensive support from sophomore running back Damien Harris (327 yards) and sophomore receiver Calvin Ridley (19 catches for 219 yards). Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen has a team-best three sacks (and 21 for his career) and returned an interception 75 yards for a touchdown against Ole Miss, while senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions) and senior linebacker Reuben Foster (team-high 22 tackles) are also playing superbly.

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened this one as big home favorites at -43 and they have been bet even higher - currently sitting at -44. The total opened at 52 and has come down a couple of points throughout the week to its current number of 50. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Golden Flashes last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games following a ATS loss.

No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 21 Mississippi Rebels (-7, 62)

* The Bulldogs were torched for 376 passing yards last week and face another high-powered passing offense this week, but jump-starting a struggling running game is just as important heading into Saturday. Nick Chubb ranks 13th nationally at 121.7 yards per game but only rushed for 63 yards against Missouri. Eason completed 29-of-55 passes and fired three touchdowns, the most attempts by a Georgia quarterback in 16 years, and receiver Isaiah McKenzie – who caught the game winner – leads the Bulldogs with 18 catches for 305 yards and four scores.

* Quarterback Chip Kelly has plenty of targets, as seven players have caught a touchdown pass through three games and Engram leads the team with 20 receptions and 302 receiving yards. While Kelly has averaged 318 passing yards per contest and threw for a career-high 421 last week, he also has six turnovers. Junior defensive end Marquis Haynes recorded his 19th career sack against Alabama, but the Rebels are 104th nationally in third-down defense and have surrendered 72 first downs in three games.

LINE HISTORY: The line for this one opened with Ole Miss as 7.5-point favorites. The line came down a little bit throughout the week, hitting its lowest number of -6.5 on Thursday morning. However, by Thursday evening the line returned to the key number of -7. The total hit the board at 60.5 and steadily increased until settling at the current number of 62. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 9-1 in Bulldogs last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Rebels last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

No. 25 Iowa Hawkeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+13.5, 56.5)

* Beathard (seven TD passes, one interception) struggled with a shoulder injury last week after getting hit hard several times, but is expected to healthy enough to try and improve on his 15-3 record as a starter. Running backs LeShun Daniels Jr. and New Jersey native Akrum Wadley, who have both scored three times on the ground, hope to rebound after a rough week and receiver Matt VandeBerg (15 catches, 267 yards, three TDs) looks to continue a strong start. Coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters the defense must improve after surrendering 239 rushing yards last week.

* Laviano has thrown for four touchdowns and been intercepted just once in the last two games and has produced 457 yards through the air overall. Grant is averaging 9.5 yards per carry with three scores and junior running back Robert Martin boasts a team-high 252 yards rushing – 169 in the 37-28 win over New Mexico last week. Grant also has 15 receptions to lead the team while sophomore Jawuan Harris is making an impact with 140 yards on five catches and two touchdowns for an offense that totaled 89 points the last two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Iowa Hawkeyes opened the betting week as 14-point road dogs. As the week went on their number dropped - getting as low as 12.5 at one point - but eventually came back up to settle at 13.5. The total opened at 55.5 and came up a full point to the current number of 56.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hawkeyes are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Hawkeyes last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2 in Scarlet Knights last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (-4, 42)

* Wisconsin is unbeaten and averaging more than 30 points, but the Badgers are still very concerned about their play in the red zone this season. Chryst’s squad is 91st in the nation in touchdowns scored per red-zone trip at 53.3 percent (8-for-15), so the head coach was understandably perturbed when asked about it in the week before the matchup with the Spartans. Last year, the team scored a touchdown on 64.8 percent of its trips into the red zone, a percentage the Badgers will need to get much closer to if they hope to contend in the Big Ten West.

* A big question for Michigan State entering the season was the play at quarterback, with Tyler O’Connor taking the reins of the defending league champion’s offense. But two games in, and O’Connor has shown poise, even on the road in front of a raucous crowd in South Bend, Ind., and his numbers have been solid (431 yards, five TDs, two interceptions). With the Spartans’ running game getting in gear and O’Connor having targets like R.J. Shelton and emerging freshman Donnie Corley to throw to, the quarterback could end up being one of coach Mark Dantonio’s smallest worries going forward.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan State opened the betting week as 6-point favorites for their big matchup with Wisconsin. The betting public has been pushing the Badgers and by Friday afternoon has taken the line all of the way down to -4. The total opened at 43.5 and has dropped down to 42. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
* Under is 5-1 in Badgers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

No. 14 Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls (+5, 61)

* Junior running back Dalvin Cook came into the season as a Heisman Trophy candidate, but has not been as dominant as expected with 228 yards rushing in three games. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has thrown for 782 yards and six scores in the early going and has solid veteran receiving threats in Travis Rudolph (15 catches, 219 yards, three TDs) and Jesus “Bobo” Wilson (14, 186). The underachieving defense is without one of its top performers as safety Derwin James is lost for five to seven weeks after knee surgery.

* The Bulls showed character last week by digging out of an early 17-0 hole with a big day from Adams, who ran for two scores and caught a touchdown pass. Flowers has been outstanding the last two weeks while completing 33-for-57 passes for five TDs and no interceptions, and has run for 150 yards in three games. Mack returned last week after missing a game with concussion symptoms to rush for 115 yards with a pair of touchdowns, and leads a ground attack averaging 247 yards (5.9 per attempt) with 10 total TDs from four different players.

LINE HISTORY: Florida State opened the betting week as 6-point road favorites against their in-state rivals from South Florida. The point spread was quickly bumped up to 7 but money flowed in fast on the home dogs, forcing the spread down to its current number of 5. The total opened at 61 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
* Bulls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 home games.

No. 16 Florida Gators at No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5, 43)

* Loaded with talent and depth, Florida leads the nation in fewest points allowed (4.7 per game), total defense (129.7 yards) and is second in rushing defense (38.3 yards). Led by linemen Caleb Brantley and Jordan Sherit, linebackers Alex Anzalone and Jarrad Davis and a secondary that includes preseason All-American Teez Tabor, the Gators set a school record by holding North Texas to 53 yards of total offense as they tuned up for the Vols. Florida had four running backs - Jordan Scarlett, Mark Thompson, Lamical Perine and Jordan Cronkrite - score against North Texas, and with the change at quarterback, coach Jim McElwain will likely lean on the ground game, which produced 255 yards against the Mean Green and is averaging 202 yards.

* The Vols are just 101st nationally in total offense (351 yards per game) but led by the elusive Dobbs, who rushed for 136 yards against the Gators last season, they are capable of quick-strike touchdowns -- their scoring drives have averaged only 2 minutes. Junior running back Jalen Hurd, who rushed for 106 yards in Tennessee's 45-24 comeback win over Virginia Tech, and junior wide receiver Josh Malone (21.8 yards per catch) are the other offensive playmakers. The defense, which recovered five fumbles including a school-record three by free safety Micah Abernathy to key the rally against the Hokies, will be without star cornerback Cameron Sutton (broken ankle), but standout linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (shoulder ailment) is excepted to be available.

LINE HISTORY: Everybody's favorite college football team right now seems to be the Tennessee Vols. They opened as 8-point home favorites over Florida but the point spread took a sharp turn down to -6.5 at the beginning of the week and hasn't come back up as of Friday afternoon. The total opened at 43.5 and was dropped a half point to 43. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Volunteers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games on grass.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-18.5, 56.5)

* Super sophomore Saquon Barkley rushed for 68 yards and a score in the victory against Temple to give him six touchdowns in his first three games, which is the most for a Penn State player since 1971. Nyeem Wartman-Wright will be sidelined for the remainder of the season after suffering a knee injury in the first quarter against Temple, leaving an already-thin linebacking corps without many viable options. Jason Cabinda hasn't played since suffering a thumb injury in Week 1 while Brandon Bell missed the win over Temple with a lower-body injury and both linebackers could miss the trip to Ann Arbor.

* Jabrill Peppers was named the co-Walter Camp FBS Player of the Week after registering 204 all-purpose yards, including a 54-yard punt return touchdown, nine tackles and a sack in the win against Colorado. Wilton Speight struggled in his first real test of the season as he was limited to 229 yards on 16-of-30 passing and failed to complete any deep throws against a talented Buffaloes secondary. Harbaugh is "hopeful" that All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis is ready to return after missing the last three games with a muscle strain while defensive end Taco Charlton could also be back after suffering an ankle injury in the season opener.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 16.5-point favorites and the spread skyrocketed up as high as -19 early in the week. Since that initial boost, the line has simply waivered between -19 and -18.5 (which is the current number as of Friday afternoon). The total hit the betting board at 58.5 and, after an initial bump to 60, has steadily fallen to the current number of 56.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games overall.
* Over is 11-0 in Wolverines last 11 games overall.

No. 17 Louisiana State Tigers at Auburn Tigers (+3.5, 44)

* Fournette ran for 228 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-21 win against Auburn last season and is coming off a 147-yard, two-touchdown effort versus Mississippi State. Etling, who was making his first start for LSU after transferring from Purdue, said, "I continue to get more and more comfortable with the first team guys" after going 19-of-30 for 215 yards. Etling hopes to have his offensive line intact this week after four linemen limped off against the Bulldogs, forcing a variety of movement across the unit, including Ethan Pocic moving from center to tackle.

* The Tigers' lone win is a rout over Arkansas State, although they lost by six against Clemson in their opener and fell in a hard-fought contest against Texas A&M last weekend. Sean White managed the game for Auburn while his teammates combined for 238 rushing yards on 46 carries. Kamryn Pettway has run for 152 and 123 yards in the last two weeks, respectively, earning high praise from wideout Ryan Davis, who called him "the perfect back that you would want."

LINE HISTORY: LSU opened the betting week as 2.5-point favorites over their fellow SEC West Tigers and throughout the week the line has been bumped up a couple of times to sit at it's current position of 3.5. The total opened at 45, went up as high as 46, and has come back down late in the week to the current total of 44. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* LSU Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
* Auburn Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-1 in LSU's last 8 games overall.
* Under is 9-2-1 in Auburn's last 12 home games.

No. 1 Houston Cougars at Texas State Bobcats (+34.5, 63)

* Ward (657 passing yards and three TDS, 74 rushing yards and two TDs) threw for 326 yards and accounted for three scores against Cincinnati after missing the week before with a shoulder injury. Linell Bonner (15 catches, 228 yards) and Steven Dunbar (11 catches, 150 yards) lead the receiving corps but haven't found the end zone. Senior linebacker Steven Taylor leads the country with 5.5 sacks and had one of the Cougars' two fourth-quarter interceptions returned for a score last week.

* Senior quarterback Tyler Jones (501 yards, four TDs, three interceptions) is third in school history in career TD passes (48) and total offense (8,082). Running back Stedman Mayberry has nine catches for 60 yards, joining Eric Luna (11 catches, 99 yards, TD) and Elijah King (eight catches, 129 yards, two TDs) as Jones' favorite targets. Junior-college transfer Gabe Loyd has 18 tackles after recording eight tackles at Arkansas.

LINE HISTORY: The heavily hyped Houston Cougers opened as 34.5-point road favorites for this matchup with the Texas State Bobcats and the line hasn't moved all week. The total opened at 63 and has taken a sharp jump up to 65. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.
* Bobcats are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Cougars last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 home games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 15 Baylor Bears (-9, 73.5)

* The Cowboys bounced back from the Central Michigan fiasco -- the officials incorrectly gave the Chippewas an extra play after the Cowboys had seemingly won the game with a pass out of bounds to run out the clock that was ruled intentional grounding -- to defeat Pittsburgh 45-38 last Saturday. Quarterback Mason Rudolph led the way, completing 26-of-46 passes for a school-record 540 yards and two touchdowns while wide receiver James Washington caught nine passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns, including a 91-yarder on the very first play of the game. Linebacker Jordan Burton leads the defense with 20 tackles while defensive ends Cole Walterscheid and Jarrell Owens top the Cowboys with two sacks each and corner Ramon Richards has a team-best two interceptions.

* The Bears have failed to score in the first quarter of each of their last two games, a minor catastrophe for a team that has led the NCAA in total and scoring offense each of the last three years. Quarterback Seth Russell, who sat out the end of the 2015 season with a neck injury, has been inconsistent at times but still has completed 62-of-105 passes for 761 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions while three running backs -- Shock Linwood, Terence Williams and JaMycal Hasty -- are averaging at least 71 yards rushing per game. Acting head coach Jim Grobe switched to a 3-4 defense this season, and it has paid off with impressive results so far as Baylor is allowing only 249.3 yards per game which ranks seventh nationally.

LINE HISTORY: The home team Baylor Bears opened as 10-point favorites at the beginning of the betting week and by Wednesday the spread was all of the way down to -7.5. Since hitting that low point of -7.5 the faves have rebounded slightly to settle at the current number of -9. The total hit the board at 74.5, peaked at 76 on Wednesday, and dropped way down to 73.5 during the second half of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

No. 20 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (+9, 47.5)

* Senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. embodied the resolve of the team last weekend, scoring the game-winning 34-yard touchdown with 2 1/2 minutes remaining despite fighting through severe leg cramps for most of the second half. Jordan Westerkamp, whose 47-yard Hail Mary catch as time expired in 2013 gave the Cornhuskers a 27-24 win over Northwestern, is coming off the first two multiple-touchdown games of his career and ranks third in school history with a catch in 29 consecutive games. Nebraska has yielded only two TD passes through three games after surrendering 25 in 13 contests a season ago and ended the Ducks' FBS record-setting streak of 82 straight games with at least one passing score.

* Sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson, who ran for a personal-best 126 yards in last year's 30-28 victory, erupted for a career-high 320 passing yards against Duke and ranks second in the Big Ten in passing yards (707) but is completing only 49 percent of his passes. Although junior running back Justin Jackson is tied for second in the conference with 260 yards on the ground, five other Wildcats have combined to run for only 35, leading to a conference-worst 98.3-yard average. Given those struggles, the Cornhuskers' primary focus on defense figures to be senior receiver Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten with 283 yards receiving and is tied for first with 18 catches.

LINE HISTORY: Nebraska opened as 6.5-point road favorites at the beginning of the week and by Friday afternoon that line had been bet all of the way up to its current number of 9. The total opened at 48 and dropped slightly to 47.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Cornhuskers last 5 games on grass.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 games overall.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at Marshall Thundering Herd (+27, 74.5)

* Jackson, who is only the second player in school history to score four rushing touchdowns in consecutive games (Fred Koster, 1926), ranks second in the nation in rushing (464 yards) and spearheads an offense that has run for at least 250 yards in five straight contests for the first time in school history. Junior running back Brandon Radcliff is averaging 11 yards per carry - better than Jackson's 9.5 - and a significant part of the reason why the Cardinals lead FBS in rushing touchdowns (16), yards per carry (8.2) and most runs of at least 20 yards (14). Louisville is tied for fifth in the country with 13 sacks and has collected at least four sacks in four consecutive contests for the first time since 2000.

* Despite piling up 560 yards, 31 first downs and holding a 13 1/2-minute advantage in time of possession, the Thundering Herd lost convincingly against Akron after allowing three return touchdowns (fumble, interception, blocked punt), committing four turnovers and drawing 17 penalties for 180 yards. Sophomore quarterback Chase Litton ranks sixth in FBS with 361 passing yards per game, keying an attack that sits 12th in the country in total offense (545 yards) and sixth in scoring (50 points per game). Tight end Ryan Yurachek added five catches for 65 scoreless yards in the loss to the Zips, ending the nation's longest active streak of games with at least one touchdown at six.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 24-point road favorites and the line quickly spiked to 26. From there the point spread wobbled between 24.5 and 27 all week long and currently sits at 27 on Friday afternoon. The total opened at 74.5 and took a slight drop to 73.5 in the middle of the week before settling back to the opening number on Thursday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Thundering Herd are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

No. 6 Stanford Cardinal at UCLA Bruins (+3, 46.5)

* Senior quarterback Ryan Burns has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for the Cardinal, who are seeking their ninth straight win over the Bruins. Stanford’s running attack features McCaffrey along with backup Bryce Love, who gained 51 yards on 11 carries in his season debut last week. Safety Zach Hoffpauir has recorded a team-high 11 tackles to lead the defense, which allowed Rosen to throw for 325 yards and three touchdowns last October but could receive a boost Saturday with the anticipated return of Harrison Phillips after the nose tackle missed last week’s game due to a knee injury.

* Rosen posted his eighth career 300-yard passing performance last Saturday against BYU while completing passes to 12 different receivers - including Darren Andrews, who led the Bruins with four catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. UCLA’s deep collection of running backs includes Nate Starks, Bolu Olorunfunmi and leading rusher Soso Jamabo, who did not suit up for last week’s game for an undisclosed reason but is expected to play Saturday. The defense matches up well against the Cardinal up front, with Eddie Vanderdoes and Eli Ankou along with linebacker Jayon Brown, who ranks among the league’s leading tacklers at 7.7 per game.

LINE HISTORY: Stanford hit the betting board as 3-point road favorites and the line has not budged all week. The total opened at 47.5 and dropped a full point to 46.5 on Tuesday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Bruins are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
* Over is 9-2 in Cardinal last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

No. 18 Arkansas Razorbacks vs No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies (-6, 49)

* First-year starter Austin Allen has quickly established himself as a solid quarterback for the Razorbacks and passed for a career-high 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Texas State after totaling four scores (three passing, one rushing) the previous week. Allen is getting plenty of support from the ground game and sophomore Rawleigh Williams III, who has rushed for 354 yards and three touchdowns. Defensive ends Jeremiah Ledbetter and Deatrich Wise Jr. recorded at least a half-sack in each of the first three games to lead the defensive line.

* The Aggies are breaking in their own first-year starter at quarterback in Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight, who has yet to complete 60 percent of his passes in a game and went 20-of-40 at Auburn without an interception. Knight is also helping out with 151 yards and three TDs on the ground but the star of the rushing attack is freshman Trayveon Williams, who needed only eight attempts to churn out 127 yards and a TD last week. Star defensive lineman Myles Garrett got off to a bit of a slow start in the first two games but recorded a pair of sacks at Auburn to lead the defense.

LINE HISTORY: The Aggies opened as 6-point favorites and the line has been up and down all week - ranging between -6.5 and -5. As of Friday afternoon the line had settled back to the opening number of -6. The total kicked off the betting week at 50.5 and currently sits at 49. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Aggies are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Razorbacks last 6 games in September.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Aggies last 8 games overall.

No. 9 Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats (+14, 58)

* Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has passed for 744 yards and 12 touchdowns against one interception and his nine scoring passes over the past two games are the most in back-to-back games in school history. The Huskies are still waiting for sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin (217 yards, two touchdowns) to increase his production after last season's 1,302-yard campaign, while big-play junior receiver John Ross has 13 receptions for 167 yards and four touchdowns. Washington has been flirting with using standout junior safety Budda Baker on offense but he remains the top player on a defense that is receiving strong play from junior linebacker Azeem Victor (team-best 21 tackles) and sophomore tackle Greg Gaines (team-best 4 1/2 tackles for loss).

* Sophomore Brandon Dawkins, who has passed for two touchdowns and rushed for five, will make his third consecutive start if Solomon isn't cleared to return. The Wildcats are also short-handed at running back with junior Nick Wilson (257 yards, three touchdowns) highly questionable due to an ankle injury, and that would leave freshman J.J. Taylor (168 yards versus Hawaii last Saturday) and junior kick returner Tyrell Johnson - being converted from slot receiver to tailback this week - as the main ball carriers. Standout junior linebacker DeAndre' Miller (four tackles for loss) is questionable with a foot injury while sophomore free safety Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and senior linebacker Paul Magloire Jr. (team-best 20 tackles) are also playing well.

LINE HISTORY: The much-hyped Washington Huskies opened this matchup as 11-point road favorites and the public quickly jumped all over the No. 9 team in the nation. The point spread moved from 11 to 12 to 13 to the current number of 14. The total hit the board at 58 and hasn't moved as of Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Plenty of betting action and line moves on Saturday's college football slate
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 4 of the college football season features several games that have seen significant line moves, including some of Saturday’s bigger matchups. We talk about where the action is with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Las Vegas.

No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans – Open: -6.5; Move: -4

An early-season matchup of Big Ten unbeatens is among the noon Eastern kickoffs. Wisconsin (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is coming off a very lackluster 23-17 home win over Georgia State as a massive 35.5-point favorite, but the Badgers opened the year with a big 16-14 upset of Louisiana State as a 12.5-point underdog at Lambeau Field.

Michigan State (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) bolted out to a 36-7 lead at Notre Dame last week and held on for a 36-28 upset as a 7.5-point ‘dog.

“This is one of the better games of the day, for sure, a huge Big Ten game,” Bogdanovich said Friday afternoon. “There’s been money for Wisconsin, and I can’t blame them. Michigan State is coming off a monster win. It could be a letdown spot.”

Bogdanovich noted the line movement stemmed mostly from sharp action on the Badgers.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at Marshall Thundering Herd – Open: +24.5; Move: +26.5

Quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals are all the rage after a 3-0 SU and ATS start in which they’re averaging 65 points per game. That includes last week’s shocking 63-20 beatdown of then No. 2 Florida State as a 2-point home chalk.

So even though Marshall (1-1 SU and ATS) has only two outright losses over the past two-plus seasons at home – one of them being last week’s blowout upset, 65-38 at the hands of 17.5-point ‘dog Akron – this game has a huge number that continues to rise.

“We’ll probably go even higher,” Bogdanovich said of the line on today’s 8 p.m. Eastern game. “Louisville is the darling right now, scoring 70 points every game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we go up to 28. That’s a big public game. It’ll be one of our bigger decisions tomorrow.”

No. 16 Florida Gators at No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers – Open: -6.5; Move: -5

Both these teams are 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS heading into a key SEC East showdown at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Tennessee held off Ohio last week 27-19, far short of cashing as 27-point home chalk, while Florida blanked North Texas 32-0, just short of the 32.5-point spread.

“It just looked like there should be some money for the ‘dog,” said Bogdanovich, noting it was definitely sharp money that lowered the number. “Florida hasn’t given up anything (14 points in three games), and Tennessee has been overpriced. It’s not a shock to see that line come down.”

Syracuse Orange at Connecticut Huskies – Open: -3.5; Move: -5.5, -3.5

UConn (2-1 SU and ATS) has played a trio of tight games, edging Virginia last week 13-10 on a late field goal to push as a 3-point home fave. Conversely, Syracuse (1-2 SU and ATS) enters off back-to-back blowout losses, including 45-20 to South Florida catching 12.5 points at home last week.

Bogdanovich noted the line has bounced around a lot on this 1 p.m. Eastern matchup.

“We opened UConn -3.5, then went as high as 5.5, now we’re down to -3,” he said. “There’s been a double-move on that game, and I think there’s still some movement to come. I don’t know which side the wiseguys are on. But sometimes, there are multiple sharp people out there who end up on different sides.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Massachusetts Minutemen – Open: +23.5; Move: +21.5

The Bulldogs (1-2 SU and ATS) gave LSU all it could handle last week before losing 23-20 as a 13-point road pup. The Minutemen (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) nabbed their first win last week, 21-13 getting 1 point at home against Florida International, and bettors seem to like UMass in the 3:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

“There has been money on the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said. “Some sharp group likes the ‘dog in that one.”

No. 9 Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats – Open: +11; Move: +14

Washington (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has posted three blowout victories, albeit not against quality competition, while Arizona (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) is dealing with quarterback injuries. Starter Anu Solomon suffered a knee injury in a Week 1 loss at BYU and didn’t start as the Wildcats won the past two weeks behind Brandon Dawkins, including Saturday’s 47-28 win over Hawaii laying 23.5 points at home.

“Arizona’s got a quarterback situation, so a lot of that movement had to do with information,” Bogdanovich said of 10:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “They’re doing a lot of two-stepping down there.”

Other Saturday games seeing significant line movement, based on odds from Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:

• Virginia Tech opened as 9.5-point chalk hosting East Carolina and is now up to 12.5 points.
• No. 5 Michigan went as high as a 19-point home favorite vs. Penn State, after opening at 15.5. The Wolverines are now at -18.
• West Virginia has moved from a 3.5- to a 7-point fave at home against Brigham Young.
• No. 13 Texas A&M opened as a 3-point home favorite and has been bet up to 6 against No. 18 Arkansas.
• Western Michigan is now a 7-point home chalk against Georgia Southern, after opening at -4.
• Nebraska was installed as a 6.5-point fave at Northwestern and is now up to 8.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Action
By Brian Edwards

**Florida at Tennessee**

-- Another critical SEC East showdown between Florida and Tennessee will be one of the highlights of a Saturday card in late September once again. The Volunteers will be looking to snap an 11-game losing streak against the Gators, who have dominated the series since the early 1990s. As of early Friday morning, most betting shops had Tennessee (3-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43 points. UF was available on the money line for a sweet +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). For first-half wagers, UT was a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 21.5.

-- Florida (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) won’t have starting quarterback Luke Del Rio for this trip to Neyland Stadium. Del Rio suffered a sprained MCL in last week’s 32-0 win over North Texas. The sophomore will be out for 2-3 weeks but could return for an Oct. 8 home date vs. LSU. Del Rio had completed 62-of-101 passes (61%) for 762 yards with a 6/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Austin Appleby will get his 12th career start and Jim McElwain has implied that both true freshmen QBs will be ready to play. Appleby spent parts of the 2014 and 2015 seasons as Purdue’s starter, lending credence to the notion that his mediocre numbers aren’t necessarily a reflection of how well he’ll play with much more talent around him at UF. Appleby threw for 2,767 yards with a 19/19 TD-INT ratio for the Boilermakers.

-- I went to the spring game and came away extremely impressed with Kyle Trask, the two-star recruit out of Texas. Listed at 6’4” and 230 pounds, Trask stands tall in the pocket, has a rocket for an arm and moves well. If a true freshman sees action, I think it’ll be Trask ahead of Wakulla High School product Feleipe Franks, a four-star recruit. Franks was intercepted three times during the Orange and Blue Game. Trask didn’t start his senior season after getting injured before the season opener. His high school coach didn’t want to mess with team chemistry when Trask returned because the starter, who signed with Houston, was playing well. But Trask is the real deal and gamblers shouldn’t be surprised if he gets on the field Saturday in Knoxville.

-- McElwain has utilized a rotation of four different RBs in juco transfer Mark Thompson, true freshman Lamical Perine and sophomores Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite. Scarlett has rushed 33 times for 175 yards and two TDs, while Thompson has produced 166 yards and two TDs on 32 carries. Perine has the best yards-per-carry average of the bunch (5.5 YPC), turning 29 attempts into 161 yards and one score. He also has a pair of catches for 65 yards and one TD. Cronkrite has 80 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes.

-- Florida sophomore WR Antonio Callaway will return to the lineup after resting a quad injury in the win over the Mean Green. In UF’s first two games, Callaway had 13 receptions for 201 yards and two TDs. The word out of Gainesville is that Callaway would’ve played this past weekend if Tennessee had been the opponent. The hero of last year’s UT game has 290 all-purpose yards on 21 touches. Callaway is a problem for the Vols, who won’t have their best cover corner to defend him. Senior CB Cam Sutton broke a bone in his ankle during the first half of Saturday’s 28-19 win over Ohio. Sutton, a second-team All-American as a punt returner last year, is out for what Butch Jones said is an “extended period of time.”

-- Florida leads the nation in total defense through three games, giving up only 129.7 yards per contest. This unit is led by a pair of All-American candidates in LB Jarrad Davis and safety Marcus Maye, who has 14 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack, one pass broken up and one interception. Davis has a team-best 18 stops, two sacks, two TFL’s, one pass broken up and one QB hurry. Junior LB Alex Anzalone has spent most of his time at UF sidelined by injuries, but he’s healthy now and displaying the talent that made him a five-star recruit. Anzalone has 14 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL’s, one PBU and one QB hurry.

-- Tennessee received a ton of preseason hype but has yet to live up to that billing. In its season opener at home against Appalachian St. from out of the Sun Belt Conference, Jones’s squad trailed 13-3 at halftime. The Vols were fortunate to force overtime since the Mountaineers missed an extra point in the first half and had a 42-yard field goal in the fourth quarter sail wide right. On its first possession of the extra session on third and goal, senior QB Josh Dobbs scrambled to his right and jumped in the air in an attempt to score. As he tried to reach the ball toward the plane of the end zone, he was stuck by an App. St. defender and fumbled into the end zone. Once again, fortune was on UT’s side as junior RB Jalen Hurd recovered the ball for a TD. When UT batted away a fourth down pass into the end zone moments later, it escaped with a 20-13 non-covering win as a 21.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Hurd rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 attempts, while Jeff Malone had two receptions for 85 yards, including a critical 67-yard TD catch to tie the game with 10:30 remaining in the fourth quarter.

-- In Week 2, Tennessee fell behind 14-0 to Virginia Tech in the opening quarter of the ‘Battle at Bristol’ in front of the largest crowd in NCAA history. This time, however, UT responded with authority and scored 24 unanswered points to take a 24-14 advantage to intermission. The Vols would eventually capture a 45-24 triumph as 11-point favorites. The 69 combined points soared ‘over’ the 52.5-point total. Dobbs threw three TD passes and rushed 14 times for 106 yards and two more scores. Hurd rushed for 99 yards on 22 carries, while Malone had a pair of receptions for 46 yards and one TD.

-- UT was in a vintage sandwich spot last weekend with UF on deck following the huge event at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Ohio Bobcats came to Knoxville as 27-point underdogs and easily covered the number. In fact, UT was locked into a one-possession game in the fourth quarter until Dobbs found Malone for a 20-yard scoring strike to extend the lead to 28-19, which was the eventual final. The Vols never trailed but they never led by more than nine points, either. The 47 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 57.5-point tally. Dobbs completed 19-of-27 passes for 203 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 59 yards and one TD on 14 totes. Malone had five grabs for 69 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- For the season, Dobbs has connected on 45-of-75 throws (60%) for 486 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 161 yards and three TDs on 37 carries for a 4.4 YPC average. Hurd has rushed for a team-best 270 yards and two TDs while averaging 4.2 YPC. Malone has team-highs in catches (9), receiving yards (196) and TD grabs (4).

-- Not only will UT be without Sutton vs. UF, but it will also be missing starting sophomore Darrin Kirkland, who had 66 tackles, three sacks, three TFL’s, one interception and five QB hurries as freshman in 2015. Two other key players, OL Chance Hall (knee) and DE LaTroy Lewis (ankle), are listed as ‘questionable.’ On the bright side, All-SEC LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (shoulder) is ‘probable’ after leaving the Ohio game without returning.

-- Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in a pair of home ‘chalk’ situations this year and has limped to an abysmal 7-16 ATS record in its last 23 such spots. On the flip side, the Gators own a 6-2-1 spread record with four outright victories in their last nine games as road underdogs.

-- This is the first time these teams have both been ranked since the 2006 meeting when true freshman QB Tim Tebow battled his way to a crucial first down on a 4th-and-inches play that was the catalyst during the game-winning drive in a 21-20 UF win at Neyland.

-- UF is 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight games against Tennessee. The Gators took the cash as one-point home ‘dogs in last year’s 28-27 win at The Swamp. UT led 26-14 after Hurd scored on a 10-yard TD scamper with 10:19 remaining. However, Jones inexplicably elected to go for the extra point rather than a two-point conversion. The unfathomable decision would end up costing his team. With 4:09 left, the Gators cut the deficit to 27-21 on a five-yard TD pass from Will Grier to Brandon Powell. After getting a stop, UF faced a 4th-and-14 play from its own 37 with just over 90 seconds to play. Grier found Callaway for the first-down yardage, but then the true freshman decided to get greedy. He backtracked and ran to the sidelines where he turned the corner and beat the UT secondary to the end zone. UT’s 55-yard FG attempt as time expired was wide right. It was the second straight season UF rallied from a two-possession deficit in the fourth quarter to beat UT. The Gators trailed 9-0 in 2014 until the defense and a few plays from true freshman QB Treon Harris sparked them to a 10-9 come-from-behind victory.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the last six head-to-head meetings between these schools.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**LSU at Auburn**

-- You talk about a pair of head coaches in dire need of a victory! Man, my Auburn neighbor was at Jordan-Hare this past Saturday and explained how the boo-birds were out in force for Gus Malzahn and his pedestrian offense for basically the entire game. In my SEC preview back in July, I laid out my case for Auburn to go ‘under’ its win total of seven. I certainly don’t wish a pink slip on anyone, including Malzahn, but I explained how there was really no way around it if AU struggled to get a bowl bid this year. If AU can’t get it done on Saturday night vs. LSU, the ‘under’ and Malzahn’s eventual dismissal will appear to be a foregone conclusion. First of all, everyone with a clue realizes that Auburn pulls the trigger on a coaching change in football quicker than any other school in the nation. Secondly, look at what’s left on the schedule. Remember, Auburn hasn’t gone on the road yet. After hosting ULM next weekend, AU goes to Starkville where a Mississippi St. team will be waiting for it after enjoying an open date. There are road dates remaining in Oxford, Athens and Tuscaloosa, not to mention a home game vs. still-unbeaten Arkansas. And hey, don’t sleep on Vandy, which comes to The Plains with two weeks to prepare on Nov. 5 when Malzahn’s troops will be off a game at Ole Miss with at Georgia on deck. With all that said, if Auburn can find a path to victory vs. LSU, it goes to Starkville with a 3-2 record. With a win over Dan Mullen’s club, it would improve to 4-2 and have two weeks to prep for a home game against the Razorbacks. This is life for an SEC coach on the hot seat these days.

-- LSU’s Les Miles is in a similar boat as Malzahn. He was nearly dismissed last year and came under heavy scrutiny yet again following a 16-14 season-opening loss to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The criticism was similar to what Miles has faced regularly for years: vanilla offensive play-calling and ineffective QB play. The Badgers won outright as 12.5-point underdogs thanks to a defense that forced three turnovers and limited the Tigers to only 257 yards of total offense. Brandon Harris was intercepted twice and threw for only 131 yards.

-- When Harris struggled early in a Week 2 home game vs. Jacksonville State, he was yanked in favor of Purdue transfer Danny Etling, who helped his team to a 34-13 non-covering win as a 28-point home ‘chalk.’ Etling’s numbers weren’t great, but the offense functioned better with him under center. He completed 6-of-14 passes for 100 yards with one TD and one interception. He also ran for a score. Fournette left the game early with a mild ankle sprain, so Derrius Guice stepped in and rushed for 155 yards and one TD on 19 totes.

-- In its SEC opener at Tiger Stadium last weekend, LSU held off a furious late fourth-quarter rally from Mississippi St. to preserve a 23-20 win. However, the Bulldogs’ 17-0 run in the second half resulted in a backdoor cover as 13-point underdogs. The 43 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 47-point total. LSU raced out to a 20-0 lead before both teams traded field goal late in the second quarter to make it 23-3 at halftime. Etling connected on 19-of-30 attempts for 215 yards and one TD without an interception. Fournette rushed for 147 yards and a pair of scored on 28 carries.

-- LSU has a pair of starting offensive linemen listed as ‘questionable’ at Auburn. OT Toby Weathersby (ankle) and OG Josh Boutte (knee) both left the win over MSU with injuries.

-- As of early Friday, most books had LSU (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. Malzahn’s team was +145 on the money line, while the Bayou Bengals were favored by two and the total was 23 for first-half bets.

-- Auburn (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) took the cash as a 7.5-point home underdog in its 19-13 season-opening loss to Clemson. Kevin Steele’s defense kept AU in the game the whole way by forcing a pair of turnovers and limiting Clemson to 399 yards of total offense. However, Malzahn used three different QBs and the offense could muster only 262 total yards. Auburn was an atrocious 3-for-17 on third down.

-- In Week 2, Auburn covered the number again in a 51-14 win over Arkansas State as a 20.5-point home favorite. The offense came alive with 706 yards against the Red Wolves. Sean White went the distance and completed 17-of-23 throws for 244 yards and three TDs without an interception. Kamryn Pettway produced 152 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Kerryon Johnson ran for 124 yards and two TDs on 18 attempts. Tony Stevens hauled in four receptions for 75 yards, including TD grabs from eight and 24 yards out.

-- Auburn limped its way through last week’s SEC opener, a 29-16 home loss to Texas A&M as a one-point favorite. The Tigers were favored by 3.5 or four for most of the week, but a surge of action on the Aggies had the number moving south all of Saturday afternoon. The 45 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 55.5-point tally. White completed 18-of-27 passes but for just 126 yards. He was pulled in the second half in favor of juco transfer John Franklin III, who connected on 4-of-8 throws for only 37 yards. Franklin, who is a dynamic runner, had 47 rushing yards on nine attempts. Pettway ran for 123 yards and one TD on 20 carries.

-- LSU is mired in a 3-8 ATS slump in its last 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Auburn owns a 3-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in five games as a home underdog during Malzahn’s tenure.

-- LSU has beaten Auburn in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings, but Auburn is 5-4 ATS during this span. The Tigers won a 45-21 decision as six-point home favorites last season when Leonard Fournette exploded for 228 rushing yards and three TDs on 19 carries. The 66 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 50-point total.

-- ESPN will provide the broadcast at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Before we delve into any other SEC nuggets, let’s just take a moment to recognize last week’s Ole Miss-Alabama barn burner in Oxford. What a wild-as-hell football game! The Rebels raced out to a 24-3 lead thanks to a 44-yard scoop and score from John Youngblood with 2:47 to play in the second quarter. However, Alabama struck back fast with a six-yard TD run from Calvin Ridley just 37 seconds later. Then with 1:05 left until halftime, Eddie Jackson returned an Ole Miss punt 85 yards for a TD to trim the deficit to seven at intermission. Another defensive score pulled Alabama even in the third quarter before both teams traded field goals. The Crimson Tide went ahead for good on a Bo Scarbrough one-yard plunge into the end zone with 16 ticks left in the third quarter. Nick Saban’s bunch would go ahead 48-30 on a Jonathan Allen 75-yard pick-six with 5:28 remaining. Game, set, match, right? Wrong. Chad Kelly found Damore’ea Stringfellow for a five-yard scoring strike with 2:59 left. Eight seconds later after an onside kick, Kelly found A.J. Brown for a 37-yard TD pass. With three timeouts left, Ole Miss didn’t even have to attempt another onside kick, but it was unable to stop Alabama and get the ball back (even though it had a great chance when Alabama fumbled, only to recover its own mishap).

-- How easy did Ole Miss and Mississippi State make those successful onside kicks look late in the fourth quarter last week? And then how about the super-quick TDs to follow? Hell, both teams scored so fast they didn’t even need to attempt a second onside kick. We should also acknowledge that both onside kicks led to backdoor covers for the Rebels and Bulldogs.

-- Sportsbooks have updated odds to win the SEC earlier this week. I’m not sure how Texas A&M has much longer odds than LSU, Tennessee and Georgia. Likewise, I’m stunned that UF’s odds are so much longer compared to UT and UGA. In other words, I believe A&M and UF have the best value. Here are those odds:

Alabama +110 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $110)
LSU +325
Georgia +750
Texas A&M 10/1
Florida 15/1
Ole Miss 20/1
Arkansas 25/1
Auburn 40/1
Missouri 250/1
Mississippi St. 300/1
Vanderbilt 300/1
South Carolina 300/1
Kentucky 500/1

-- As of early Friday, most books had Ole Miss listed as a seven-point home favorite vs. Georgia. The total was 62, while the Dawgs were +240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240). Where is the Rebels’ psyche after losing a pair of games in which it led by margins of 22 and 21 points in the first half? Who knows? To any notion that fatigue could be a factor for the Rebels, I would throw that out the window because UGA has played three consecutive close games. The Bulldogs rallied to top UNC in the opener at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. Next, it narrowly escaped with a 26-24 home win over Nicholls, an FCS school. Then at Missouri last week, Kirby Smart’s club captured a 28-27 win thanks to a 20-yard TD pass from true freshman QB Jacob Eason to Isaiah McKenzie on a 4th-and-10 play with 1:29 remaining. Eason finished with 308 passing yards and three TDs compared to only one interception.

-- Kelly, the Rebels’ senior signal caller, has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio. He leads the SEC in QB rating (164.2) and is second in passing yards (953).

-- As of early Friday morning, most spots had Texas A&M (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 49. The Razorbacks were +195 on the money line. The Aggies have collected wins vs. UCLA (31-24 in OT), vs. Prairie View (67-0) and at Auburn (29-16). Kevin Sumlin’s squad has won four in a row over the Hogs, including back-to-back victories in overtime.

-- Arkansas (3-0 SU, 2-1) has a 3-0-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories in four games played at a neutral venue since Bret Bielema took over in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks routed Texas State by a 42-3 count as 28-point home favorites last week. They had to rally in the fourth quarter to a 21-20 home win over La. Tech and a 40-37 overtime win at TCU in Week 2.

-- Arkansas has to be pleased with the play of new starting QB Austin Allen, who is filling the large shoes left behind by his older brother. Brandon was a three-year starter who is currently on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster. Austin has been sharp in his first three career starts, connecting on 53-of-79 throws (67.1%) for 655 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. He probably has the nation’s most underrated group of WRs led by Keon Hatcher and Drew Morgan. Hatcher has 11 receptions for 204 yards and two TDs, while Morgan has 15 catches for 168 yards and one TD. TE Jeremy Sprinkle, who is also replacing a stud in San Diego Chargers TE Hunter Henry, has nine receptions for 97 yards and three TDs, including the game winner late in the fourth quarter against Louisiana Tech in the opener.

-- Missouri QB Drew Lock is tops in the SEC in passing yards with 1,106. The Tigers, who covered the number as seven-point home ‘dogs in the loss to UGA, host Delaware St. this weekend and have a trip to LSU on deck.

-- Vandy junior RB Ralph Webb leads the SEC with 377 rushing yards. The Commodores, who are 1-2 following a 38-7 loss at Ga. Tech last week, are 7.5-point ‘dogs Saturday at Western Ky. They’ll be looking to avenge a 14-12 home loss in the season opener last year. Vandy is 6-5 ATS as a road ‘dog on Derek Mason’s watch.

-- Kentucky and South Carolina are poised to collide in Lexington at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The Wildcats were favored by 2.5 early Friday morning, while the total was at 59. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 3-0 clip for UK, while the Gamecocks have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

I certainly get more picks right than wrong overall in a season, but boy was last week ugly. I had Florida State winning at Louisville and Oklahoma taking out visiting Ohio State, but the Seminoles and Sooners were blown out. Not shocked both teams lost as they played excellent opponents, but how they did was pretty stunning.

Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson is now the clear -200 favorite at sportsbooks to win the first Heisman Trophy in Louisville history. He threw for 216 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 146 yards and four more scores in the 63-20 win over FSU and has been responsible for 18 touchdowns already. Louisville is averaging a ridiculous 65 points per game and jumped to third in the AP poll this week, tying the highest ranking in school history. The 63 points scored on Saturday were the most ever allowed by Florida State. It was the third-largest victory over a top-two team in the 80-year history of the AP poll and the biggest since 2008.

After the game, Michael Vick tweeted that Jackson is five times better than Vick was while at Virginia Tech, and right now I'd have to agree. The Cards opened as 25.5-point favorites this week at Marshall in what seems to be a mega-trap game because Louisville is at No. 5 Clemson next week. Win that, and the Cards should be in the ACC title game.

Florida State is not out of the Playoff discussion as the Noles only slipped to No. 13 in the AP poll, but obviously they have to win out now. They would need two Louisville losses in the conference to get back to the ACC Championship Game, and it's hard to see that happening. FSU better not overlook a very good South Florida team in Tampa on Saturday. The Seminoles are -7.

Oklahoma now has no shot at the Playoff with two lopsided losses on its schedule. The Sooners dropped to No. 25 in the AP Poll and get this week off to lick their wounds and prepare for a trip to TCU to open Big 12 play. It was another terrible weekend for the Big 12 with Texas also losing (at Cal). Ohio State moved up a spot to No. 2 with the 45-24 win over Oklahoma. I didn't think the Buckeyes would win simply because they are so young and in their first road game, but OSU is now 19-0 in road games under coach Urban Meyer and has won five consecutive road games against ranked foes. The Buckeyes are also off this week before hosting Rutgers to open Big Ten play. OSU won't be tested again until Oct. 15 at Wisconsin.

Here are a few Week 4 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll and games Saturday unless noted.

No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 8 Michigan State (-6): When will people learn to stop doubting Mark Dantonio's Spartans? Sparty upset No. 18 Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday, 36-28. Tyler O'Connor, a fifth-year senior making his third career start, was 19 of 26 passing for 241 yards and two TDs. It was a typical Dantonio game as the Spartans pounded the ball on the ground with 260 yards rushing and won the turnover battle, forcing three Irish giveaways. That loss was Notre Dame's second on the season, meaning it's out of the College Football Playoff hunt. The Badgers almost were caught looking ahead to this one as they avoided a huge home upset to Georgia State, 23-17, as five-touchdown favorites. Starting QB Bart Houston was struggling so he was pulled for Alex Hornibrook, who led UW to scores on three of his first four possessions and finished 8 of 12 for 122 yards and a touchdown. The redshirt freshman is expected to start in East Lansing. It's not yet clear if UW will have top running back Corey Clement, who missed the Georgia State game with a sprained ankle. The pick: MSU wins its fifth straight at home in the series.

No. 19 Florida at No. 14 Tennessee (-6.5): The Vols have lost 11 straight games in the series and really blew it last year in Gainesville as they were up 27-14 with under five minutes left. UF won it 28-27 on a 63-yard TD reception by Antonio Callaway with 1:26 left. Vols kicker Aaron Medley missed a 55-yard field goal just wide right with three seconds to go. Florida had no trouble in beating North Texas 32-0 on Saturday but lost starting quarterback Luke Del Rio for 2-3 weeks to a sprained MCL. Gators coach Jim McElwain went nuts on the play after it happened, thinking the North Texas low hit was dirty. It might have been. The injury overshadowed a dominant performance by Florida's defense, which allowed a school-record 53 yards (on 50 plays). Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby will start vs. UT. He started 11 games the previous two years combined with the Boilermakers and frankly wasn't very good. That's why I love Tennessee here. The Vols were perhaps looking ahead to this one Saturday in beating Ohio just 28-19. UT also lost its best cornerback, Cam Sutton, for multiple weeks to an ankle injury. Sutton has started all 41 games in his collegiate career. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin also left Saturday's game with a shoulder injury, but Coach Butch Jones said he will play against Florida. The pick: Tennessee, and jump on this immediately before it gets above 7.

Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (-9.5): If you are Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, you have to be secretly rooting for Baylor here as the Bears are really the conference's lone remaining team with a shot to go unbeaten and likely assure itself a spot in the playoff. The only other conference team without at least one loss is West Virginia, but the Mountaineers haven't played anyone yet and they aren't that great. The Big 12 has just one nonconference win against a team even receiving any Top 25 votes in this week's AP poll. As usual Baylor played a joke of a nonconference schedule in blowing out Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. If the Bears win here, they should be unbeaten when visiting Texas on Oct. 29. The Pokes should be unbeaten but for that botched call at the end of their Sept. 10 Hail Mary loss to Central Michigan. They bounced back with a 45-38 win over Pitt on Saturday as Mason Rudolph passed for a school-record 540 yards. The total of this game is going to be huge, and I'd still go over. Both teams are 14th nationally in scoring at 44.3 ppg. Baylor won last year at home, 45-35, when the Pokes were 10-0. The teams combined for 1,141 yards of offense. The pick: Baylor, but at 10 or more I'd take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'CFB Streaks Tips, Notes'

Duke at Notre Dame September 24, 3:30 EST

Fighting Irish looking sloppy in a home stumble to Michigan State are being asked to spot Duke a whopping 21.5 points of offense. Rather generous, Fighting Irish have not been a peg to hang your hopes on when laying twenty or more at home posting a vig-losing 4-4 mark against the betting line during Brian Kelly's tenure. Fighting Irish are also 1-5 ATS in their last six hosting a team with a losing road record.


Houston at Texas State September 24, 7:00 EST

Little chance Texas State Bobcats shredded for 548.5 yards/game, 48.0 points will derail Houston Cougars racking up 38.3 points/game along with a styfling defense surrendering just 13.0 per/contest. Houston is the real deal, lay the expected -34.5, Cougs' have a habit of covering on the road (10-3 ATS) including 5-0 laying 20 or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big 12 Shootout Expected in Waco'

The eyes of most college football fans, as well as those with a penchant for sports gaming will be on what figures to be a Big 12 Shootout in Waco as Baylor (3-0, 0-3 ATS) hosts Oklahoma State (2-1 SU/ATS).

Baylor behind a balanced offense split between 275.3 passing, 282 rushing yards/game have scored 44.4 points/game. On the defensive end Bears are off to an outstanding start, ranking third nationally in scoring defense allowing 10.0 points/game on 249.3 total yards/contest.

Oklahoma State relying on it's air attack (359.3 PY) rather than gound game (97.3 RY) have been equally impressive on the scoreboard racking up 44.3 PPG. But, the defense is a work in progress with Cowboys shredded for 234.7 passing, 148.0 rushing yards/game and 25.0 points.

The teams have split the last six meetings showcasing their respective offenses with the schools combining to average 77.3 points/game posting 3 'Over', 2 'Under' and 1 'Push'.

Bears tough to topple in Waco have won 19 of their last 21 in front of the home audience with a 13-7 record at the betting window in lined games. Baylor should remain undefeated. However, you bet Jim Grobe's trrops at some risk. Bears have not been the correct choice recently laying points posting a money-burning 1-8 record against the betting line including 0-5 at McLain Stadium losing two games outright. Pokes on the other hand enter the contest 5-1 SU/ATS in Big 12 enemy territory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

Michigan is 11-4 in last 15 games with Penn State, winning 28-16, 18-13 in last two; favorites are 7-5 vs spread in series. Lions lost six of last seven visits here (dogs 4-3 vs spread); they scored 33+ points in all three games this month- they were -4 in turnovers last two games. PSU is 6-14 as road dog last 10+ years, 1-4 in Franklin era. Wolverines scored 53 ppg in winning first three games (2-1 vs spread)- they’re 7-3 as a home favorite under Harbaugh.

West Virginia is 5-3 in last 8 games as home favorite, 10-15 overall in Holgorsen era; Mountaineers covered only I-A game this year, but did give up 462 TY (282 PY) in 26-11 win over Mizzou. BYU is 11-4 as an underdog the last 4+ years; their three games this year were decided by total of six points, losing 20-19/17-14 last couple weeks. Being an independent, their schedule is front-loaded; this is their 4th tough game in row. Game is at Redskins Park, so long trip for Cougars, too.

Pitt ran ball for 631 yards last two games, scoring 80 points while splitting pair vs tough foes. Panthers gave up 872 PY, bad news vs North Carolina squad that scored 36 ppg in splitting its two games vs I-A teams. UNC won last three games with Pittsburgh by 7-5-7 points; UNC had 444/502 TY in last two meetings. Pitt lost last two visits to Chapel Hill 40-35/29-10. Tar Heels are 15-9 as home favorites under Fedora. Pitt is 4-2 as road underdogs under Narduzzi.

Baylor steps up in class here after winning by 27-28 over inferior foes last two weeks. Bears won three of last four games with Oklahoma State, with an average total of 79.5. Underdogs covered last three in series. OSU lost 49-28 in last visit to Waco. Baylor ran ball for 617 yards in last two meetings; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 8-5 as road underdog last 8+ years; this is their first road game this year.

Underdogs covered seven of last eight Michigan St.-Wisconsin games; teams last met in 2012. Badgers lost last four visits here, by 6-10-1-35 points. Dogs won three of last four series games SU. Badgers switched QBs LW in 23-17 struggle over Georgia State; Wisconsin is 5-2 as road underdog last 6+ years- this is their first road game of year. Spatans had big win over Notre Dame LW, running ball for 260 yards; they’re 11-16 as home favorites last four years.

Texas A&M ran ball for 434 yards in wins over UCLA/Auburn; they’ve won last four games with Arkansas; underdogs are 3-1-1 in last five meetings. Hogs ran ball for 718 yards in last three series games, but are also -7 in turnovers in last four games. A&M is 10-14 as home favorite under Sumlin. Arkansas covered its last eight games as an underdog; they already have road win at TCU this month. Hogs won first two games by total of 4 points before pummeling Texas State 42-3 LW.

Washington is 3-1 as home favorite under Petersen; this is their first road game after whacking three stiffs. Huskies crushed Arizona 49-3 in Seattle LY, but home side is 8-0 in last eight series games; U-Dub lost last four trips to Tucson- their last win here was in ’06. Five of last six series games were decided by 11+ points. Huskies ran ball for 690 yards in last three vs Arizona. Wildcats are 12-4 as home dogs last decade, 5-1 under RichRod.

Ole Miss led Florida State 28-6, Alabama 24-3, but lost both, bad way to start year. Rebels are 13-7-1 as home faves under Freeze. Georgia won its last two games by total of 3 points, surviving trip to Mizzou LW after 26-24 win over I-AA team week before. Ole Miss lost its last ten games with Dawgs (last meeting in ’12); six of last seven were by 10+ points. Georgia won last its five visits to Oxford; Dawgs are 1-5 in last six games as a road underdog.

Tennessee lost its last 11 games with Florida; immense pressure on them to win this game, especially with Gators starting Appleby (backup) at QB with Del Rio hurt. Dogs covered last three series games. Tennessee is 6-11 as home favorite under Jones; Vols are 3-0 but looked shaky in wins over Appalachian St, Ohio U. Purdue transfer Appleby started 11 games for Boilers; Florida is 6-2-1 in its last nine games as a road underdog.

Florida State lost 63-20 LW, worst loss for FSU in decades; how do they bounce back here, in another road game with a frosh QB? USF (+28) lost 34-14 at Florida State LY; Seminoles ran ball for 278 yards. Bulls covered all three series games. FSU is 8-6 as road favorite last 3+ years; they completed only 8-24 passes LW- this game is more about them than USF. Bulls ran ball for 532 yards in winning last two games- they covered last three as a home dog.

LSU found a competent QB LW with Etling taking over- they led Miss State 23-3 at half. LSU is 3-8 in last 11 games as road faves. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in last eight LSU-Auburn games; LSU is 2-6 in last eight visits here, winning by 2-5 points. LSU is 2-2 as a road favorite at Auburn- they ran ball for 411 yards in LY’s home win (LSU is 7-2 in last nine games vs Auburn). Auburn is playing 4th home game in row; they were held to 13-16 points in losses to Clemson/Tex A&M. Auburn is 3-2 as home dog under Malzahn.

Cal won 50-43 LW, lost 45-40 the week before; Bears allowed 889 rushing yards in three games- not good. Cal won nine of last 11 games with Arizona State; favorites are 6-3 vs spread last nine years. Bears won four of last five visits here- Goff had 542 passing yards vs ASU LY. Sun Devils are 4-5 vs spread as a series favorite, ASU is 3-0 but was life/death to win at UTSA LW and allowed I-AA team to pass for 369 yards in their opener. Sun Devils are 15-9 as home favorite under Graham.

Stanford won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread) vs UCLA, with three straight wins here, all by 18+ points. Cardinal allowed total of 23 points in winning first two games- they threw for only 109 wins in 27-10 win over USC LW. Stanford is 5-8 in last 13 games as a road favorite. Bruins had good road win at BYU LW; UCLA is 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog. Nation-wide, home underdogs are 2-3 vs spread in conference games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Sept. 24

Matchup Skinny Edge

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA...If CMU chalk note 8-1 road in role as visitor since 2012! Chips 13-4 last 17 on board since late 2014. If ‘Hoos a dog note 14-7 mark in role for Bronco Mendenhall since 2011 at BYU. Cavs were 10-4 vs. line past two seasons at home though Bronco lost opener TY.

Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC... Ball 2-0 vs. line TY, both as road dog for Neu, upping mark to 24-11 since 2009 (including 1-4 LY). Cards 7-3 vs. spread last 10 as non-MAC visitor. Owls no covers first three TY and now on 3-10-1 spread skid since early 2015.

Ball State, based on team trends.


UCF at FIU...Ron Turner won in upset LY in opener 17-15. FIU on 1-6-1 spread skid since late LY. Turner now just 6-10 as home dog since taking over in 2013.

UCF, based on team trends.


ARMY at BUFFALO...West Point now 6-0-2 vs. line away from Michie since LY. Leipold only 5-9 vs. spread since taking over Bulls LY.

Army, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH... ECU beat Beamer SU past two years and has covered last three years vs. VPI. Pirates 6-2 vs. line in series since 2006. ECU 8-4 as dog since 2013. Fuente 1-0 vs. line at home TY but Hokies were just 8-17-1 as home chalk for Beamer from 2011-15.

ECU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at UCONN...Note UConn 0-8 chalk mark for Diaco since 2014 and 0-14 in role back to 2012 and Pasqualoni era! Dino 10-5-1 vs. line since LY with BGSU & Cuse.

Syracuse, based on UConn spread woes.


PENN STATE at MICHIGAN...James Franklin 0-6 SU last six away and 2-9 vs. number away from Happy Valley under Franklin. Franklin 0-2 SU and vs. line against Michigan. Harbaugh 2-1 vs. line TY and now 6-3 as Ann Arbor chalk since LY.

Michigan, based on team and series trends.


IOWA at RUTGERS...Ferentz 5-0 vs. line as visitor LY and 9-0 as visiting chalk since 2013! ‘Gers 2-6 as dog since LY (0-1 for Ash).

Iowa, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at INDIANA...Wake on 7-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and has covered last three on road, all as dog. Deacs also “under” 5-1 last six since late 2014. Hoosiers now 2-4 last six as home chalk since late 2013.

Wake Forest and slight to “under”, based on recent team and “totals” trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at IOWA STATE...Spartans not traveling well lately, 0-1 vs. line away TY, 1-10 in role since 2014 for Caragher. SJSU also 2-14 overall as dog since 2014. Matt Campbell has started slow at ISU but Cyclones were 2-0 as home chalk LY and Campbell was 11-3-1 last 15 on line with Toledo.

Iowa State, based on SJSU negatives.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at UMASS...Dan Mullen 9-5 vs. line as visiting chalk since 2009. Mullen on 22-11-1 spread run since late 2013.

Mississippi State, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at MINNESOTA...Bobo 0-2-1 as dog away from home with Rams, also 5-8 last 13 overall vs. spread. CSU 2-5 last seven as dog dating to late 2014. Gophers 8-1 “over” last nine in reg season though only 2-4 last six as home chalk.

Slight to Minnesota and "over" based on team and "totals" trends.


BYU vs. WEST VIRGINIA (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md)...Cougs 11-5 vs. line since last season, 14-7 as dog since 2011. WVU 12-22 as chalk since 2012 (1-1 TY).

BYU, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at RICE...Rice has won and covered last two meetings but Owls 3-8-1 spread skid since early 2015. Note Bailiff 11-2-1 as chalk since 2014. Mean Green 3-11 as road dog since 2014.

Rice, based on team and recent series trends.


APP STATE at AKRON...Bowden just 3-9 as home dog since 2012. App 8-1 vs. line last nine as visitor.

App State, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at WESTERN MICHIGAN... Eagles 6-2 vs. line away from Statesboro since 2015. WMU 19-10 vs. line since 2014, though only 2-3 as Waldo chalk since LY.

Slight to Georgia Southern, based on team trends.


CHARLOTTE at TEMPLE... 49ers 3-8-2 as dog since LY. Rhule 13-5 last 18 vs. line, 5-3 last 14 laying DD.

Temple, based on team trends.


PITT at NORTH CAROLINA...Heels have won and covered last three years in series. Panthers just 6-12 last 18 vs. spread (6-11 for Narduzzi). Heels 9-4 as chalk since LY, 6-2 laying points at Chapel Hill.

North Carolina, based on new trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP...USM 11-6 vs. line since LY and 6-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2015. Golden Eagles 7-1 as chalk since LY, though Miners 9-3 vs. spread at Sun Bowl since 2014.

Slight to USM, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR...OSU has covered 2 of last 3 meetings but did lose and no cover at home LY vs. Bears. Gundy only 8-7 as dog since 2012. Baylor 1-8 last 9 vs. spread in reg season (0-3 for Grobe) and only 2-6 as Waco chalk since 2015.

Oklahoma State, based on recent trends.


LOUISVILLE at MARSHALL...Cards 1-1- vs. line last two years after Noles. Petrino 7-3 last 10 vs. line as visitor, and has covered last five sicne late 2015. Herd rare dog, 1-1-1 in role since 2-13, but 13-5-1 vs. points at Huntington since 2013 and 10-4-3 last 17 against points vs. non-CUSA.

Slight to Louisville, based on recent trends.


KENT STATE at ALABAMA...Nick vs. alma mater! Tide however only 2-5-1 as home chalk since LY. But Golden Flashes just 4-6-1 as dog since LY and 2-5 last 7 as DD dog.

Slight to Alabama, based on team trends.


DUKE at NOTRE DAME...Cutcliffe 12-6 last 18 as dog, 9-3 last 12 vs. number away. Blue Devils haven’t been a DD dog since 2013. Brian Kelly 5-2 as South Bend chalk since LY but only 5-12 last 17 as DD chalk.

Duke, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at TROY...Ags improved to 4-2 as road dog LY (0-1 TY) after 4-13-1 mark in role 2012-14. Troy won big 52-7 LY at Las Cruces. Trojans 0-2-1 laying DD since 2014.

Slight to NMSU, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Derek Mason 4-3 last 7 vs. spread non-SEC, also 11-8 as dog since 2014. Dores are 22-14 as dog since 2011. WKU 13-7-1 last 21 on board since late 2014.

Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN STATE...Teams haven’t met since 2012. Badgers 5-1 as dog since 2014 (1-0 TY; 3-1 for Chryst). Dantonio covered last three as home chalk LY but just 11-17 as East Lansing favorite since 2012 (0-6 mark that year).

Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Ags have won last four SU in series (last two in OT) that commenced before A&M moved into SEC. If dog note Ags 0-4 in role LY. Bielema has covered five straight away from home.

Slight to Texas A&M, based on recent series trends.


NEVADA at PURDUE...Purdue 2-0 as home chalk since LY, both vs. FCS. Otherwise no covers last four vs. non-Big Ten BCS foes. Pack was 5-0 as dog away from home LY before narrow non-cover at ND.

Nevada, based on team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at TULANE...Willie Fritz 10-4 vs. line since LY at Ga So. ULL on 4-8-1 spread skid, 1-3-1 last five away.

Tulane, based on recent trends.


COLORADO at OREGON...Ducks have won and covered big all five meetings since Buffs entered Pac-12 in 2011. Though OU 0-2 vs. line at home TY and 2-7 at Eugene vs. spread since 2015. MacIntyre 10-5-1 vs. line since LY and 6-2 last eight as dog.

Slight to Colorado, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...U-Dub destroyed Cats 49-3 LY. Huskies have won and covered 5 of 6 since late LY, and U-Dub has covered last three in series. Rich-Rod only 2-6 last 8 as dog.

Washington, based on team and series trends.


GEORGIA at OLE MISS...Richt was only 5-11-1 as dog from 2009-15, and UGa only 6-8 vs. spread last 13 away. Freeze 44-22-1 vs. line since 2011 and 34-20-1 with Ole Miss sicne 2012.

Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI...Old rivalry between these nearby foes. Miami hasn’t beaten Cincy since 2005 but has covered last three meetings. Chuck Martin 9-4 as road dog since 2014 with RedHawks. Tuberville 3-6 last 9 as chalk.

Miami-Ohio, based on team and recent series trends.


LA TECH at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Skip rolled 45-16 LY and if dog in this one note 7-1 mark in role on road since 2014. Skip 19-11 vs. points overall since 2014. MTSU is 16-3 SU at Murfreesboro since 2013.

La Tech, based on team trends.


UTSA at OLD DOMINION...If ODU chalk note 1-6 mark in role since 2014. Though Monarchs did win at Alamodome LY.

UTSA, based on team trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Stoops has covered last three vs. Cocks and won last two outright. Muschamp 9-4-1 as dog e since 2012 (Gators & SC). Stoops on 1-9 spread skid and 2-7-1 vs. line last 10 as SEC host.

South Carolina, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at TENNESSEE...Still the bogey game for Vols, losers by 1 each of last two seasons vs. Gators. Florida has won last 11 SU vs. UT! McElwain 9-5 last 14 as dog. Butch Jones 7-11 as home chalk with Vols and UT 8-18 last 26 in role dating to 2012.

Florida, based on team and series trends.


BOWLING GREEN at MEMPHIS...Jinks 0-3 vs. line at BGSU, which has yet to cover in 4 since Dino left before bowl LY. Falcs 8-2 last 10 vs. line as visitor but 0-1 TY and be careful with the Babers marks.

Memphis, based on recent BG woes.


FLORIDA STATE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Jimbo could not cover vs. USF LY and only 4-7 as chalk away from home since 2014. Bulls on 11-1 reg season spread surge and 5-2 last seven as dog. USF covers last 8 at Tampa!

USF, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA at NORTHWESTERN...Huskers have won last four SU in series and crushed Cats last two years. Fitz just 7-16 vs. spread since 2013 at Evanston, 3-4 last seven as home dog. Huskers 5-1-1 vs. line last seven since late LY. Riley 1-2 as road chalk LY.

Nebraska, based on recent series trends and Cat home negatives.


HOUSTON at TEXAS STATE...Bobcats were 6-3 as home dog 2012-15. UH 11-5 vs. line since LY, 6-1 vs. line away from home.

Houston, based on recent trends.


LSU at AUBURN...Take the Tigers! Auburn 3-1 vs. line last four meetings, the loss coming LY. Miles 0-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2015 (counts Wiscy as visitor in Green Bay). LSU 5-10-1 last 16 vs. line. But Malzahn still just 5-16 last 21 on board. If dog note Malzahn 3-7 since 2014 after 5-0 in 2013 debut. Lots of negatives here.

Slight to Auburn, based on LSU negatives.


BOISE STATE at OREGON STATE...Boise 9-4 last 13 as chalk away from home but most of that was vs. non-Power 5 opposition. Broncos no covers last two vs. Pac-12 since LY. Beavs might be improved TY and 1-0 vs. line but just 5-19 vs. line past two seasons. .

Slight to Boise State, based on recent trends.


AIR FORCE at UTAH STATE...Force on 14-7-1 spread uptick since early 2014, beat USU at Falc Stadium LY. If Utags dog note 5-9 mark in role since 2013.

Air Force, based on recent trends.


IDAHO at UNLV...UNLV 3-0 as home chalk since LY for Sanchez. Idaho no covers first three TY.

UNLV, based on recent trends.


CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Dykes 7-3 as road dog since 2014, 8-4 last 12 as visitor. Sun Devils just 6-7 last 13 as Tempe chalk.

Cal, based on team trends.


STANFORD at UCLA...Tree has brutalized Bruins lately, won last 8 SU and 7-1 vs. line in those games. Tree has won and covered last three at Pasadena vs. Bruins by 24.7 ppg. Mora 0-4 as dog since 2014. Tree 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from Farm.

Stanford, based on series and team trends.


TULSA at FRESNO STATE...FSU 3-13 vs. line last 16 vs. non-MW, covers only vs. FCS and Idaho. Fresno 6-15 last 21 as dog, 8-11 last 19 vs. line at home. Tulsa covered all 7 away form home LY (7-1 last 8 after Ohio State).

Tulsa, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 4 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

The Week 4 college football schedule isn't as tantalizing as last week's, but I do think this could go down as "Trap Weekend."

Top-ranked Alabama is a whopping 44-point favorite over Kent State, but I'd jump all over the points there for a few reasons. The first is that the Tide are likely still physically and emotionally spent following last week's huge comeback win in their SEC opener at Ole Miss. That is even bigger considering the Rebels had won two straight in the series, and you know that ticked off Nick Saban. Shoot, he was smiling after the win. Smiling! Speaking of Saban, I think he takes it easy this week because Kent State is his alma mater. He played and got his coaching start there. No need to embarrass the school. Finally, Bama might be without its No. 2 receiver in ArDarius Stewart due to a knee injury. Not like the Tide need him to win.

I'll be curious how No. 13 Florida State plays in Tampa against a very good South Florida program that is on the rise under Coach Willie Taggart. The Bulls run an up-tempo Gulf Coast offense that has been the nation's second-highest scoring over the past seven games. While this game means everything to a program like USF, it's a nuisance game for the Noles and they might be flat off last Saturday's blowout loss in Louisville and ahead of a tough game vs. North Carolina back in ACC play. USF is just a 5-point dog.

No. 3 Louisville also seems likely to suffer a letdown effort this week off that mega-impressive destruction of FSU in perhaps the biggest game in school history. Now the Cardinals go into the mountains of West Virginia as 27-point favorites at Marshall. I'm not saying the Thundering Herd will win as they were crushed at home last week by Akron and have a lone win over a ranked opponent since joining the FBS in 1997. But there's no way Louisville isn't looking to next week's Clemson game.

Look for No. 6 Houston to also be sluggish off its big win at Cincinnati last Thursday. The Cougars are at Texas State, which is the biggest home dog on the board at +35. It's the school's first home game against a ranked team since joining the FBS.

My potential upset of the week? Northwestern getting +7.5 at home against No. 20 Nebraska. The Huskers are off a home upset of Oregon and are just 1-4 in road openers in the past five years. NU won last year in Lincoln as a 7-point underdog and has covered four of the past five meetings.

Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

South Carolina at Kentucky (-2.5, 59): Opened with UK at -1 and total has risen 3.5 points. I'm pretty shocked that Kentucky is favored here. Have the oddsmakers not seen the Wildcats play? They allowed 34 straight points at home in a Week 1 loss to Southern Miss, were utterly dominated Week 2 in Florida and gave up 42 points last week at home to New Mexico State in a 20-point win. The Cats also have lost starting quarterback Drew Barker for a "significant" amount of time to a back injury. Barker was sidelined after the first series of UK's win over New Mexico State. He was the first UK quarterback to be named the starter after spring practice in the Mark Stoops era. JuCo transfer Stephen Johnson takes over, and he was very good vs. NMSU -- but consider the competition. It will be the second career start for USC true freshman QB Brandon McIlwain. He made his first last week in a 20-15 win over East Carolina. McIlwain was one of Coach Will Muschamp's first big recruiting wins when taking over at USC. I absolutely love the "under" here even as bad as UK's defense has been.

Colorado at Oregon (-10.5, 68.5): Lot of injury questions in this game. For sure out for the Ducks are speedster receiver Devon Allen, who ran the 110-meter hurdles in the Rio Olympics, and starting left tackle Tyrell Crosby as both suffered season-ending injuries in last week's tough loss at Nebraska. Allen has 141 yards receiving and a TD. All-American running back Royce Freeman is questionable with a knee injury. He left in the first quarter vs. the Huskers. Oregon is deep at running back, but there are few home-run talents in college football like Freeman. For the Buffs, quarterback Sefo Liufau is questionable with an ankle injury. He will be a game-time decision. Liufau has completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 768 yards, six TDs and no picks while rushing 28 times for 124 yards and a score. If he can't go, it's redshirt freshman Steven Montez, who is 6-for-17 for 117 yards and two scores. One of the team's top defensive players, junior outside linebacker Derek McCartney, is done for the year with a torn ACL suffered in last week's loss to Michigan.

New Mexico State at Troy (-20, 65): Spread has risen 2.5 points and total dropped 2.5. Perhaps not a game you would pay much attention to, but NMSU's best offensive player, running back Larry Rose III, is expected to make his season debut. Rose won the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year award in 2015 after he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 touchdowns. He missed the first three games off sports hernia surgery. In addition, perhaps the team's best defender, junior linebacker Derek Ibekwe, also should debut off his own sports hernia surgery. He led the team in tackles in 2015.

No. 9 Washington at Arizona (+12.5, TBA): Line has risen 1.5 points. This is your latest-starting game of the night at 10:30 p.m. ET. Is Washington any good? The Huskies were a chic pick to win the Pac-12 this year, and they just might. But they have played a Baylor-type schedule thus far, ripping Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, all in Seattle. Dating to last season, UW has scored at least 40 points in six straight games, and Jake Browning is the highest-rated QB in the nation this year. Arizona is 7-5 at home against Top-10 teams since 2005 but probably will be without starting QB Anu Solomon again, while top tailback Nick Wilson is questionable at best. Solomon probably has lost his job as Brandon Dawkins has been great passing and running in starting the past two games with Solomon injured. Wilson has rushed 43 times for 257 yards and three TDs. He was hurt last week in the win over Hawaii. True freshman J.J. Taylor blew up when Wilson left as Taylor rushed 18 times for 168 yards and a TD. That Washington defense is just a tad better than Hawaii's, however.