College football four-point stance: Week 2 pointspread picks and predictions
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
When you get down to it, the Las Vegas pointspread is nothing more than a simple number. On the surface, this probably sounds like a blasphemous statement given the sacred nature in which numbers like three and seven are held amongst the sports betting community, but the bottom line is that without proper context and complementary data, the spread is nothing more than a lonely digit.
For example, if I told you that the Dallas Cowboys were 1-point home favorites against the New York Giants, how would you react knowing that rookie signal-caller Dak Prescott would be lining up under center for Jason Garrett’s offense? Now imagine that instead of Prescott running the show, the Dallas offense would be operated by four-time Pro Bowler Tony Romo. Would your opinion on which side to bet differ based on this information?
On Saturday night in Southern California, the undefeated San Diego State Aztecs will play host to the California Golden Bears. At the current moment, San Diego State is priced as a 7-point favorite. Given the fact that Cal is coming off a bye week and led by quarterback Davis Webb, who threw for 441 yards and four scores against Hawaii two weeks ago, having that seven points in your pocket with the Bears appears awfully tempting, doesn’t it?
Before you go rushing to the window, let’s first discuss some of that complementary data we mentioned in the opening paragraph. For starters, San Diego State is in a revenge spot here having lost to Cal in Berkeley by a score of 35-7 last season. In addition, the Bears are just 1-4 ATS over their last five road games and 2-6 ATS over their last eight games overall. Now let’s turn our attention to the Aztecs, who are a highly profitable 8-1-2 ATS over their last 11 games overall and 7-1-1 ATS over their last nine games following a win.
San Diego State -7 is starting to look pretty good, isn’t it?
Just to seal the deal, we’ll remind you that California will kickoff in San Diego just seven days before hosting a marquee primetime night game against Charlie Strong’s Texas Longhorns, who no doubt caught Cal’s attention with their 50-47 overtime win over Notre Dame last Sunday night.
Look for the Aztecs to feature a heavy dose of the ground game in an effort to wear down an already shaky Bears defense while keeping the potent Cal offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.
Pick: San Diego State -7
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
When: Saturday, September 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Alabama -28.5
This is a tricky spot for the top-ranked Crimson Tide, so pay close attention. Alabama is coming off a high profile 52-6 victory over USC and travels to Ole Miss next Saturday to face a Rebels team that has upset the Tide in each of the last two seasons. So it’s very possible that head coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin implement a semi-vanilla playbook this week in order to keep Mississippi guessing during it’s Week 3 preparations.
Also of significance is the fact that Alabama is a shocking 0-8 ATS over its last eight non-conference matchups as a favorite of 24 or more points. As for the Hilltoppers, Western Kentucky is 16-5 ATS over its last 21 contests after allowing fewer than 20 points in its previous game.
Pick: Western Kentucky +28.5
Florida Atlantic Owls at No. 25 Miami Hurricanes
When: Saturday, September 10 at 6 p.m. ET
Spread: Miami -24
Former Georgia head coach and current Miami kingpin Mark Richt wasn’t screwing around in his Hurricane debut as “The U” trounced Florida A&M by a final score of 70-3 behind four touchdown passes from Heisman hopeful Brad Kaaya on just 18 attempts.
Miami returns nine starters on an offense that will look to work out the kinks before a sticky situation at Appalachian State on September 17, which leads into a bye week before the commencement of ACC play on October 1 (at Georgia Tech). Be advised that Florida Atlantic is just 3-7 ATS over its last ten games after rolling up more than 450 yards of offense in the previous outing.
Pick: Miami -24
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun Devils
When: Saturday, September 10 at 10 p.m. ET
Spread: Arizona State -3
Arizona State surrendered a staggering 369 passing yards to tomato can Northern Arizona in last Saturday night’s 44-13 romp, which must have Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury foaming at the mouth in anticipation of unleashing junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes (483 passing yards, 4 TDs) all over the greater Phoenix area.
Texas Tech is 5-0-1 ATS over its last six games played in the month of September while Arizona State is just 1-6 ATS over its last seven games played in the first month of the season. Give the quarterback edge to Mahomes over inexperienced sophomore Manny Wilkins in this spot, which will ultimately prove to be the difference in a game that features a total of 79 points.
Pick: Texas Tech +3
Last week: 1-3 ATS
Season: 1-3 ATS
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
When you get down to it, the Las Vegas pointspread is nothing more than a simple number. On the surface, this probably sounds like a blasphemous statement given the sacred nature in which numbers like three and seven are held amongst the sports betting community, but the bottom line is that without proper context and complementary data, the spread is nothing more than a lonely digit.
For example, if I told you that the Dallas Cowboys were 1-point home favorites against the New York Giants, how would you react knowing that rookie signal-caller Dak Prescott would be lining up under center for Jason Garrett’s offense? Now imagine that instead of Prescott running the show, the Dallas offense would be operated by four-time Pro Bowler Tony Romo. Would your opinion on which side to bet differ based on this information?
On Saturday night in Southern California, the undefeated San Diego State Aztecs will play host to the California Golden Bears. At the current moment, San Diego State is priced as a 7-point favorite. Given the fact that Cal is coming off a bye week and led by quarterback Davis Webb, who threw for 441 yards and four scores against Hawaii two weeks ago, having that seven points in your pocket with the Bears appears awfully tempting, doesn’t it?
Before you go rushing to the window, let’s first discuss some of that complementary data we mentioned in the opening paragraph. For starters, San Diego State is in a revenge spot here having lost to Cal in Berkeley by a score of 35-7 last season. In addition, the Bears are just 1-4 ATS over their last five road games and 2-6 ATS over their last eight games overall. Now let’s turn our attention to the Aztecs, who are a highly profitable 8-1-2 ATS over their last 11 games overall and 7-1-1 ATS over their last nine games following a win.
San Diego State -7 is starting to look pretty good, isn’t it?
Just to seal the deal, we’ll remind you that California will kickoff in San Diego just seven days before hosting a marquee primetime night game against Charlie Strong’s Texas Longhorns, who no doubt caught Cal’s attention with their 50-47 overtime win over Notre Dame last Sunday night.
Look for the Aztecs to feature a heavy dose of the ground game in an effort to wear down an already shaky Bears defense while keeping the potent Cal offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.
Pick: San Diego State -7
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
When: Saturday, September 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Alabama -28.5
This is a tricky spot for the top-ranked Crimson Tide, so pay close attention. Alabama is coming off a high profile 52-6 victory over USC and travels to Ole Miss next Saturday to face a Rebels team that has upset the Tide in each of the last two seasons. So it’s very possible that head coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin implement a semi-vanilla playbook this week in order to keep Mississippi guessing during it’s Week 3 preparations.
Also of significance is the fact that Alabama is a shocking 0-8 ATS over its last eight non-conference matchups as a favorite of 24 or more points. As for the Hilltoppers, Western Kentucky is 16-5 ATS over its last 21 contests after allowing fewer than 20 points in its previous game.
Pick: Western Kentucky +28.5
Florida Atlantic Owls at No. 25 Miami Hurricanes
When: Saturday, September 10 at 6 p.m. ET
Spread: Miami -24
Former Georgia head coach and current Miami kingpin Mark Richt wasn’t screwing around in his Hurricane debut as “The U” trounced Florida A&M by a final score of 70-3 behind four touchdown passes from Heisman hopeful Brad Kaaya on just 18 attempts.
Miami returns nine starters on an offense that will look to work out the kinks before a sticky situation at Appalachian State on September 17, which leads into a bye week before the commencement of ACC play on October 1 (at Georgia Tech). Be advised that Florida Atlantic is just 3-7 ATS over its last ten games after rolling up more than 450 yards of offense in the previous outing.
Pick: Miami -24
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun Devils
When: Saturday, September 10 at 10 p.m. ET
Spread: Arizona State -3
Arizona State surrendered a staggering 369 passing yards to tomato can Northern Arizona in last Saturday night’s 44-13 romp, which must have Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury foaming at the mouth in anticipation of unleashing junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes (483 passing yards, 4 TDs) all over the greater Phoenix area.
Texas Tech is 5-0-1 ATS over its last six games played in the month of September while Arizona State is just 1-6 ATS over its last seven games played in the first month of the season. Give the quarterback edge to Mahomes over inexperienced sophomore Manny Wilkins in this spot, which will ultimately prove to be the difference in a game that features a total of 79 points.
Pick: Texas Tech +3
Last week: 1-3 ATS
Season: 1-3 ATS