CFL
Long Sheet
Week 5
Saturday, July 23
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HAMILTON (2 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 1) - 7/23/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 2-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Week 5
Saturday, July 23
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HAMILTON (2 - 2) at EDMONTON (2 - 1) - 7/23/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 2-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CFL
Week 5
Trend Report
Saturday, July 23
7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. EDMONTON
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Week 5
Trend Report
Saturday, July 23
7:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. EDMONTON
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Bob Harvey
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7½
The San Diego Padres look to continue their recent power surge when they visit the Washington Nationals.The total is 7.5. Both teams are struggling. The Padres had lost four straight before Friday’s victory while the National League East leading Nationals have dropped four of five.
The Padres (42-55, 19-30 road) took the series opener 5-3 as Matt Kemp who slugged two home runs giving him six in six games. Overall San Diego has hammered at least one roundtripper in 20 consecutive games.
The Nationals (57-40, 50-47 home) have seen their division lead cut to 4.5 games. Stephen Strasburg saw his 13-0 streak come to an end Thursday against the Dodgers and are hoping Scherzer (10-6, 2.94) can halt the skid. The Washington All-Star owns a 5-2 mark with a 1.61 ERA and 81 strikeouts in his last nine starts (61 1/3 innings). He recorded a no-decision in his last meeting with San Diego on June 18 despite striking out 10 and permitting one run on four hits in six innings. The Padres will counter with the well-traveled Edwin Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) who will face the team that he spent the 2012 season with.
The UNDER is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 overall while Washington is 7-3 to the low side in its past 10.
San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight road games.
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7½
The San Diego Padres look to continue their recent power surge when they visit the Washington Nationals.The total is 7.5. Both teams are struggling. The Padres had lost four straight before Friday’s victory while the National League East leading Nationals have dropped four of five.
The Padres (42-55, 19-30 road) took the series opener 5-3 as Matt Kemp who slugged two home runs giving him six in six games. Overall San Diego has hammered at least one roundtripper in 20 consecutive games.
The Nationals (57-40, 50-47 home) have seen their division lead cut to 4.5 games. Stephen Strasburg saw his 13-0 streak come to an end Thursday against the Dodgers and are hoping Scherzer (10-6, 2.94) can halt the skid. The Washington All-Star owns a 5-2 mark with a 1.61 ERA and 81 strikeouts in his last nine starts (61 1/3 innings). He recorded a no-decision in his last meeting with San Diego on June 18 despite striking out 10 and permitting one run on four hits in six innings. The Padres will counter with the well-traveled Edwin Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) who will face the team that he spent the 2012 season with.
The UNDER is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 overall while Washington is 7-3 to the low side in its past 10.
San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight road games.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas
No team has struggled more than the Giants since the All Star break but the Rangers come in a close second. The SF Giants owned MLB’s best record at the break (57-37) but have yet to win since play resumed, going 0-6. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 54-36 at the break (up 5 1/2 games in the AL West) and owned MLB’s best moneyline mark at plus-$2,422. However, Texas is 1-6 since the break, with its lead cut to 2 1/2 games over the Astros. Texas remains the moneyline leader (plus-$1,932 to Baltimore’s plus-$1,493) but Texas backers are down almost $500 in the team's seven games since play resumed after a four-day break.
As all know, the Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series (beat the Mets last season, after losing a seven-game series to the Giants in 2014) but KC has been behind the eight-ball most of the 2016 season and enters this contest just 48-47, EIGHT games out of the AL Central lead, as well as FIVE games back of the second wild card spot with FOUR teams a between them and the Blue Jays (current No. 2 wild card club). Saturday’s pitching matchup features Cole Hamels (10-2, 3.00 ERA) and Yordano Ventura (6-7, 4.97 ERA).
Ventura hasn't won since blanking the Tigers over 6.1 innings of a 10-3 win back on June 17, going 0-3 over his four starts since that win (Royals are 0-4), with an ugly 6.55 ERA in those outings (it’s 8.40 in his three losses!). Ventura has made four career starts against Texas, going 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA but does have 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings against the Rangers. Some good news is that while Ventura walked a major league-leading 33 in his first nine starts (6.10 per nine innings), he has allowed just EIGHT walks over his last nine outings (a span of in 52.2 innings), which is 1.37 per nine innings, a ratio ranks third-lowest in the AL during that span.
Texas counters with All Star Cole Hamels, who will be making his first-ever regular-season start at Kauffman Stadium (note: he pitched a perfect inning at the 2012 All-Star game in Kansas City while with the Phillies). The Rangers are 14-5 in Hamels' starts this season (plus-$855 moneyline mark ranks eight in 2016), including winning SEVEN of his last eight. Some may remember that the Rangers lost Hamels’ first two starts after being acquired from Philly last year but they then won his final 10 regular season starts. Doing the math, Texas is now 24-5 over Hamels’ last 29 regular season starts.
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas
No team has struggled more than the Giants since the All Star break but the Rangers come in a close second. The SF Giants owned MLB’s best record at the break (57-37) but have yet to win since play resumed, going 0-6. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 54-36 at the break (up 5 1/2 games in the AL West) and owned MLB’s best moneyline mark at plus-$2,422. However, Texas is 1-6 since the break, with its lead cut to 2 1/2 games over the Astros. Texas remains the moneyline leader (plus-$1,932 to Baltimore’s plus-$1,493) but Texas backers are down almost $500 in the team's seven games since play resumed after a four-day break.
As all know, the Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series (beat the Mets last season, after losing a seven-game series to the Giants in 2014) but KC has been behind the eight-ball most of the 2016 season and enters this contest just 48-47, EIGHT games out of the AL Central lead, as well as FIVE games back of the second wild card spot with FOUR teams a between them and the Blue Jays (current No. 2 wild card club). Saturday’s pitching matchup features Cole Hamels (10-2, 3.00 ERA) and Yordano Ventura (6-7, 4.97 ERA).
Ventura hasn't won since blanking the Tigers over 6.1 innings of a 10-3 win back on June 17, going 0-3 over his four starts since that win (Royals are 0-4), with an ugly 6.55 ERA in those outings (it’s 8.40 in his three losses!). Ventura has made four career starts against Texas, going 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA but does have 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings against the Rangers. Some good news is that while Ventura walked a major league-leading 33 in his first nine starts (6.10 per nine innings), he has allowed just EIGHT walks over his last nine outings (a span of in 52.2 innings), which is 1.37 per nine innings, a ratio ranks third-lowest in the AL during that span.
Texas counters with All Star Cole Hamels, who will be making his first-ever regular-season start at Kauffman Stadium (note: he pitched a perfect inning at the 2012 All-Star game in Kansas City while with the Phillies). The Rangers are 14-5 in Hamels' starts this season (plus-$855 moneyline mark ranks eight in 2016), including winning SEVEN of his last eight. Some may remember that the Rangers lost Hamels’ first two starts after being acquired from Philly last year but they then won his final 10 regular season starts. Doing the math, Texas is now 24-5 over Hamels’ last 29 regular season starts.
MMA OddsBreaker
Luis Henrique v Dmitry Smoliakov
Pick: Luis Henrique
Dmitry Smolyakov is a very dangerous fighter making his UFC debut, and he's a pretty solid prospect, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed a win. Luis Henrique is a solid heavyweight who actually took the first round against an extremely talented Francis Ngannou in his last fight. Henrique is a great grappler who has solid wrestling and a decent chin. Smolyakov is all about pressing the action and getting quick finishes and if he doesn't finish Henrique quickly, he could be in some serious trouble in this fight. I feel Henrique can weather the early storm and either pick up a late finish or win a decision.
Luis Henrique v Dmitry Smoliakov
Pick: Luis Henrique
Dmitry Smolyakov is a very dangerous fighter making his UFC debut, and he's a pretty solid prospect, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed a win. Luis Henrique is a solid heavyweight who actually took the first round against an extremely talented Francis Ngannou in his last fight. Henrique is a great grappler who has solid wrestling and a decent chin. Smolyakov is all about pressing the action and getting quick finishes and if he doesn't finish Henrique quickly, he could be in some serious trouble in this fight. I feel Henrique can weather the early storm and either pick up a late finish or win a decision.
Jesse Schule
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7.5
The Padres upset Washington in the series opener last night, thanks to a pair of home runs by Matt Kemp. The former Dodger is on fire, with six home runs in his last six games. Kemp and the Padres face Max Scherzer in Game 2, and Kemp is 1-for-27 with nine strikeouts lifetime versus the Nationals ace. Scherzer (10-6, 2.94 ERA) has pitched well lately, despite the fact that the Nationals have lost four of his last six starts. He went six innings, allowing one run on four hits and striking out 10 in a no decision at San Diego earlier this year, but the Padres went on the win that game by a score of 7-3. The Friars hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has struggled to stay in a major league rotation for the bulk of his 13 year career. Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) walked five batters in 6 1/3 innings, but avoided a disaster giving up just three runs on one hit in a 5-3 win over the Giants in his first start of the season. He faces a Washington lineup with plenty of power, and could be punished if he continues to put men on base. The Padres bullpen has really been knocked around this year, ranking near the bottom of the majors with an ERA of 4.54.
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7.5
The Padres upset Washington in the series opener last night, thanks to a pair of home runs by Matt Kemp. The former Dodger is on fire, with six home runs in his last six games. Kemp and the Padres face Max Scherzer in Game 2, and Kemp is 1-for-27 with nine strikeouts lifetime versus the Nationals ace. Scherzer (10-6, 2.94 ERA) has pitched well lately, despite the fact that the Nationals have lost four of his last six starts. He went six innings, allowing one run on four hits and striking out 10 in a no decision at San Diego earlier this year, but the Padres went on the win that game by a score of 7-3. The Friars hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has struggled to stay in a major league rotation for the bulk of his 13 year career. Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) walked five batters in 6 1/3 innings, but avoided a disaster giving up just three runs on one hit in a 5-3 win over the Giants in his first start of the season. He faces a Washington lineup with plenty of power, and could be punished if he continues to put men on base. The Padres bullpen has really been knocked around this year, ranking near the bottom of the majors with an ERA of 4.54.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts at Camden Yards. Despite a lack of consistency over the last couple of seasons (management shuttling back-and-forth from Triple-A Norfolk), Gausman improved upon his strikeout, walk, swing strike and ground ball rates last season.
Gausman's fastball induced a 21% strikeout rate last year (18th best among 95 qualified starters) and he remains a prime candidate for a breakout second half in 2016. Gausman's 3.78 xFIP (3.80 xFIP in 2015) is backed by a 22.1% K%, 5.0% BB% and a 17.1% K-BB%.
Gausman is also supported by a very good Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, together with a 2.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at night and a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin toes the rubber with a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five career starts against the Orioles, including yielding a combined 10 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Camden Yards.
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts at Camden Yards. Despite a lack of consistency over the last couple of seasons (management shuttling back-and-forth from Triple-A Norfolk), Gausman improved upon his strikeout, walk, swing strike and ground ball rates last season.
Gausman's fastball induced a 21% strikeout rate last year (18th best among 95 qualified starters) and he remains a prime candidate for a breakout second half in 2016. Gausman's 3.78 xFIP (3.80 xFIP in 2015) is backed by a 22.1% K%, 5.0% BB% and a 17.1% K-BB%.
Gausman is also supported by a very good Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, together with a 2.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at night and a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin toes the rubber with a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five career starts against the Orioles, including yielding a combined 10 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Camden Yards.
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -118
Putting my 18-10 (64%) freebie streak on the line with the DODGERS and Kenta Maeda on Saturday. Maeda is off the worst start of his career, having allowed five runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. Since 05/22, LA is 4-0 with Maeda on the mound when he allowed more than three runs in his previous start (Average score: DODGERS 7.2, Opponents 2.0). The Dodgers are also 6-0 against NL opponents this season with Maeda on the hill after he went less than six innings in his previous outing (Average score: DODGERS 5.8, Opponents 1.8 ).
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -118
Putting my 18-10 (64%) freebie streak on the line with the DODGERS and Kenta Maeda on Saturday. Maeda is off the worst start of his career, having allowed five runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. Since 05/22, LA is 4-0 with Maeda on the mound when he allowed more than three runs in his previous start (Average score: DODGERS 7.2, Opponents 2.0). The Dodgers are also 6-0 against NL opponents this season with Maeda on the hill after he went less than six innings in his previous outing (Average score: DODGERS 5.8, Opponents 1.8 ).
Bob Balfe
Diamondbacks -125
The Reds are not very good against left handed pitching and today will be going with a fill in pitcher who normally would pitch out of the bullpen. The Reds bullpen stinks and I don’t expect Sampson to last that long. This is not a good spot for Cincinnati and I believe they get pounded today.
Diamondbacks -125
The Reds are not very good against left handed pitching and today will be going with a fill in pitcher who normally would pitch out of the bullpen. The Reds bullpen stinks and I don’t expect Sampson to last that long. This is not a good spot for Cincinnati and I believe they get pounded today.
Marco D'Angelo
Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +130
Seattle sends Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound who has been sharp allowing just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. In 26 1/3 innings of work he allowed just 23 hits and had a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto sends R.A. Dickey who when pitching in day games this year has a ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.38. Dickey has struggled against Seattle as in 5 career starts he has a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.42. Iwakuma has owned Toronto in the 4 times he faced them posting an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.96. In his career when Iwakuma has allowed 1 earned run or less in his last start his team is 27-13 in his next start with the opposition averaging just 2.8 runs a game. It also must be noted that when Iwakuma starts on the road over the last 2 seasons his team is 22-10. Lastly Seattle is now 14-6 this year vs the AL East after last nights 2-1 win. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +130
Seattle sends Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound who has been sharp allowing just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. In 26 1/3 innings of work he allowed just 23 hits and had a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto sends R.A. Dickey who when pitching in day games this year has a ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.38. Dickey has struggled against Seattle as in 5 career starts he has a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.42. Iwakuma has owned Toronto in the 4 times he faced them posting an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.96. In his career when Iwakuma has allowed 1 earned run or less in his last start his team is 27-13 in his next start with the opposition averaging just 2.8 runs a game. It also must be noted that when Iwakuma starts on the road over the last 2 seasons his team is 22-10. Lastly Seattle is now 14-6 this year vs the AL East after last nights 2-1 win. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
TONY FINN
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: Los Angeles -129
The St. Louis Cardinals were fortunate to dodge a Friday night loss and are shooting for their sixth straight win on Saturday in the second of a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA sends righty Kenta Maeda (8-7, 3.25 ERA) to the hill to square off against Cardinals right-hander Mike Leake (7-7, 4.00)
Dodgers
Maeda, the Japanese import contained the San Diego offense in his last turn allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings of work on July 10 while striking out a season high 13. Maeda has the advantage the first two times through the Cards lineup as none of the current St Louis bats have faced the LA starter. Maeda has been stellar on the road this season managing a 5-2 mark with a 3.31 ERA in nine starts as a visitor.
Cardinals
Leake has outpitched his peripherals in his last two tuns. The Cards righty allowed one run and six hits over seven frames in a winning effort against Milwaukee and in his next to last start handled the San Diego Padres. Leake has been a disappointment for Cardinal faithful. The innings eater has been anything but consistent this season. There was a time when you could count on Leake to be efficient and keep his team in the game but he doesn't miss enough bats, registering a below league average strike out percentage (15%).
Outlook
The Dodgers have been executing offensively like a postseason condender and in Friday night's loss to the Redbirds they outhit the home team 14-8 but hold onto a ninth innings lead resulting in a 4-3 at Busch. The Dodgers are in a great spot tonight against a pedestrian and inconsistent offensive Cardinals troupe.
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: Los Angeles -129
The St. Louis Cardinals were fortunate to dodge a Friday night loss and are shooting for their sixth straight win on Saturday in the second of a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA sends righty Kenta Maeda (8-7, 3.25 ERA) to the hill to square off against Cardinals right-hander Mike Leake (7-7, 4.00)
Dodgers
Maeda, the Japanese import contained the San Diego offense in his last turn allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings of work on July 10 while striking out a season high 13. Maeda has the advantage the first two times through the Cards lineup as none of the current St Louis bats have faced the LA starter. Maeda has been stellar on the road this season managing a 5-2 mark with a 3.31 ERA in nine starts as a visitor.
Cardinals
Leake has outpitched his peripherals in his last two tuns. The Cards righty allowed one run and six hits over seven frames in a winning effort against Milwaukee and in his next to last start handled the San Diego Padres. Leake has been a disappointment for Cardinal faithful. The innings eater has been anything but consistent this season. There was a time when you could count on Leake to be efficient and keep his team in the game but he doesn't miss enough bats, registering a below league average strike out percentage (15%).
Outlook
The Dodgers have been executing offensively like a postseason condender and in Friday night's loss to the Redbirds they outhit the home team 14-8 but hold onto a ninth innings lead resulting in a 4-3 at Busch. The Dodgers are in a great spot tonight against a pedestrian and inconsistent offensive Cardinals troupe.
Chase Diamond
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Two teams meet up that are really battling for a playoff spot when the 55-42 Rangers take on the 48-47 Royals. Rangers have lost 4 straight and the Royals are just 4-6 last 10 games. Yordano Ventura has been pitching well last few starts and has the best stuff as Royals starters goes. Cole Hamels is a stud but the Rangers have been struggling to score runs. Rangers are a huge public play today as 83% are backing this road team yet the line has totally shifted the opposite way showing us who the sharps are backing and backing big time here.
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Two teams meet up that are really battling for a playoff spot when the 55-42 Rangers take on the 48-47 Royals. Rangers have lost 4 straight and the Royals are just 4-6 last 10 games. Yordano Ventura has been pitching well last few starts and has the best stuff as Royals starters goes. Cole Hamels is a stud but the Rangers have been struggling to score runs. Rangers are a huge public play today as 83% are backing this road team yet the line has totally shifted the opposite way showing us who the sharps are backing and backing big time here.
Power Sports
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
With the excellent Tyler Anderson on the mound, the Rockies are actually adequately priced here, believe it or not. In this very space, I offered up a recommendation on the Rockies w/ Anderson pitching Monday. He led them to victory (7-4 over Tampa Bay). I'm confident he can do the same here.
Ironically, it was arguably Anderson's worst start of the year Monday as he allowed a season-high four runs. He walked three batters, but gave up only five hits. Note he'd allowed 3 ER or less in each of his first six outings though. That's despite four of those starts coming here at Coors Field (where his ERA is an impressive 3.26). Now having pitched at home five times, Anderson has a 29-7 KW rate in those starts. As I mentioned in Monday's analysis, a pitcher who can strike batters out consistently is what this Colorado pitching staff has needed for years. Anderson might finally be "the guy."
The Rockies have taken the first two games of this series, by scores of 7-3 and 4-3. Considering they beat the Braves' best pitcher (Julio Teheran) last night, it should be "smooth sailing" this weekend. Even the thin air of Denver isn't enough to aid this woeful Atlanta offense which is averaging just 3.4 rpg. They are dead last in all of baseball in runs scored. Pitching here for them will be Matt Wisler, who has a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. As the line suggests, this is a mismatch.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
With the excellent Tyler Anderson on the mound, the Rockies are actually adequately priced here, believe it or not. In this very space, I offered up a recommendation on the Rockies w/ Anderson pitching Monday. He led them to victory (7-4 over Tampa Bay). I'm confident he can do the same here.
Ironically, it was arguably Anderson's worst start of the year Monday as he allowed a season-high four runs. He walked three batters, but gave up only five hits. Note he'd allowed 3 ER or less in each of his first six outings though. That's despite four of those starts coming here at Coors Field (where his ERA is an impressive 3.26). Now having pitched at home five times, Anderson has a 29-7 KW rate in those starts. As I mentioned in Monday's analysis, a pitcher who can strike batters out consistently is what this Colorado pitching staff has needed for years. Anderson might finally be "the guy."
The Rockies have taken the first two games of this series, by scores of 7-3 and 4-3. Considering they beat the Braves' best pitcher (Julio Teheran) last night, it should be "smooth sailing" this weekend. Even the thin air of Denver isn't enough to aid this woeful Atlanta offense which is averaging just 3.4 rpg. They are dead last in all of baseball in runs scored. Pitching here for them will be Matt Wisler, who has a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. As the line suggests, this is a mismatch.
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies +140
Nola’s 4.4 ERA masks how great he’s been this season, as he’s my #5 starter overall and #10 in the last 30-days. His advanced metrics are excellent, and he’s truly one of the best pitchers in the league. By comparison, he’s going up against a young prospect in Glasnow. One fact that jumps out at me is Glasnow’s poor control. In the minors this year (102 innings) he’s had a 4.9 BB/9 rate or 14% BB%. That’s awful. Remember, that was minors! Against MLB hitters that’s going to be even worse. Philly is a bad overall offense, but over the last 30-days they’re performing at a league average mark ranking 13th overall. And do you know who’s struggling? Pirates offense of course, ranking 25th overall in the last 30-days. Weak offense, terrible BP (#26 overall), and a young kid that can’t throw strikes. How the heck are the ‘Rats favorites by this much against the 5th best pitcher in the league??
Arizona Diamondbacks -125
Robbie Ray is my 34th overall starter and 23rd in the last 30-days. The key here is that he’s absolutely filthy against lefties, ranking 6th overall against them. Well, the biggest threat on Cincy’s offense is Joey Votto, and of course he’s a lefty. If Ray can neutralize him, I doubt we’ll see this 26th ranked offense do much today. And I think he will. More so than backing Ray, this play is about fading Sampson and this Cincy 30th ranked BP. Keyvius Sampson is a middle reliever, one of the worst in the league. The guy sports 5.5 ERA and has allowed 5 HR’s with 14 BB’s in only 16 innings of work this year. In his MLB career (68 innings) he has a 6.3 ERA and 5.3 xFIP. This is not a good pitcher. More so, I doubt we see him going longer than 5 innings, so this 30th ranked Cincy BP will have to go for almost half a game. Now that’s an advantage that I just can’t pass up.
Colorado Rockies -190
Juicy, but the matchup is right. Wisler is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, ranking 131st in my database. Furthermore, he’s allowed 5 HR’s in his last 2 starts and has a GB-rate of less than 40%. Pitching in elevation is not going to help matters tonight especially against this Rockies team that ranks 9th in ISO against right-handers. Opposite him will be Tyler Anderson, who is quietly my 15th ranked starter. He’s coming off a poor start, but that was against Tampa, a team that ranks 2nd offensively against lefties. By comparison, Atlanta ranks 29th, with only Philly being worse. Anderson has a GB-rate of almost 60% on the season, he’s never faced ATL before, and he throws an excellent ‘fastball’ a pitch that ATL is the worst in the league by far. I like the Rockies to tee off Wisler tonight, and behind a dominant pitcher of their own, this one should be a fairly easy win.
Philadelphia Phillies +140
Nola’s 4.4 ERA masks how great he’s been this season, as he’s my #5 starter overall and #10 in the last 30-days. His advanced metrics are excellent, and he’s truly one of the best pitchers in the league. By comparison, he’s going up against a young prospect in Glasnow. One fact that jumps out at me is Glasnow’s poor control. In the minors this year (102 innings) he’s had a 4.9 BB/9 rate or 14% BB%. That’s awful. Remember, that was minors! Against MLB hitters that’s going to be even worse. Philly is a bad overall offense, but over the last 30-days they’re performing at a league average mark ranking 13th overall. And do you know who’s struggling? Pirates offense of course, ranking 25th overall in the last 30-days. Weak offense, terrible BP (#26 overall), and a young kid that can’t throw strikes. How the heck are the ‘Rats favorites by this much against the 5th best pitcher in the league??
Arizona Diamondbacks -125
Robbie Ray is my 34th overall starter and 23rd in the last 30-days. The key here is that he’s absolutely filthy against lefties, ranking 6th overall against them. Well, the biggest threat on Cincy’s offense is Joey Votto, and of course he’s a lefty. If Ray can neutralize him, I doubt we’ll see this 26th ranked offense do much today. And I think he will. More so than backing Ray, this play is about fading Sampson and this Cincy 30th ranked BP. Keyvius Sampson is a middle reliever, one of the worst in the league. The guy sports 5.5 ERA and has allowed 5 HR’s with 14 BB’s in only 16 innings of work this year. In his MLB career (68 innings) he has a 6.3 ERA and 5.3 xFIP. This is not a good pitcher. More so, I doubt we see him going longer than 5 innings, so this 30th ranked Cincy BP will have to go for almost half a game. Now that’s an advantage that I just can’t pass up.
Colorado Rockies -190
Juicy, but the matchup is right. Wisler is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, ranking 131st in my database. Furthermore, he’s allowed 5 HR’s in his last 2 starts and has a GB-rate of less than 40%. Pitching in elevation is not going to help matters tonight especially against this Rockies team that ranks 9th in ISO against right-handers. Opposite him will be Tyler Anderson, who is quietly my 15th ranked starter. He’s coming off a poor start, but that was against Tampa, a team that ranks 2nd offensively against lefties. By comparison, Atlanta ranks 29th, with only Philly being worse. Anderson has a GB-rate of almost 60% on the season, he’s never faced ATL before, and he throws an excellent ‘fastball’ a pitch that ATL is the worst in the league by far. I like the Rockies to tee off Wisler tonight, and behind a dominant pitcher of their own, this one should be a fairly easy win.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs -1.5 +114
Chicago got their leadoff man back from the DL, as Dexter Fowler returned to the lineup in yesterday's 5-2 win in the series opener. When he's in the starting lineup, the Cubs are 44-18. I think Chicago is ready to go another big run here, as they have won 6 of their last 8.
I like the Cubs to not only win on Saturday but to do so by at least 2 runs. Chicago will send out John Lackey, who hasn't pitched great of late, but is coming off a strong outing in his last start. Most importantly he's owned the Brewers, going 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 9 career starts. Milwaukee will counter with Zach Davies, who has pitched well after a slow start, but I look for him to struggle here against the potent lineup of the Cubs.
Brewers are 4-19 over the last 2 seasons as a home dog of +125 to +150 and have lost these games by an average of 2.5 runs. Lackey on the other hand is 22-9 in his career in road starts during the month of July, winning by 2 runs/game.
Cubs -1.5 +114
Chicago got their leadoff man back from the DL, as Dexter Fowler returned to the lineup in yesterday's 5-2 win in the series opener. When he's in the starting lineup, the Cubs are 44-18. I think Chicago is ready to go another big run here, as they have won 6 of their last 8.
I like the Cubs to not only win on Saturday but to do so by at least 2 runs. Chicago will send out John Lackey, who hasn't pitched great of late, but is coming off a strong outing in his last start. Most importantly he's owned the Brewers, going 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 9 career starts. Milwaukee will counter with Zach Davies, who has pitched well after a slow start, but I look for him to struggle here against the potent lineup of the Cubs.
Brewers are 4-19 over the last 2 seasons as a home dog of +125 to +150 and have lost these games by an average of 2.5 runs. Lackey on the other hand is 22-9 in his career in road starts during the month of July, winning by 2 runs/game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +223 over BOSTON
Ricky Nolasco brings risk. He’s been hit and miss all year but sometimes you just have to ignore one pitcher when attacking the other and that’s the case here. If Nolasco gets whacked, so be it but David Price is grossly overvalued here, which makes the Twins a must play in our book.
David Price has lots of pedigree. He was once elite and one of the best in the business but since the beginning of last year’s playoffs, Price has been very average and very beatable too. His line drive rate over the past eight starts of 35% is the highest among qualified starters and it’s not even close. When pitching at Fenway, hitters have been teeing off on him all season long with shots off the Monster constantly. Overall, Price’s batted ball of 42% grounders, 26% line-drives and 30% fly-balls is weak. Price’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58. In his last start against the Yankees, he was tagged for 11 hits in 5.1 frames but only three runners crossed the plate. Price still has a high K-rate and excellent control but his pitches are coming in flat and hitters have been squaring up on them. Price is absolutely capable of beating the Twins but once again, we are not in the business of predicting outcomes. What we know for sure is that the Twinkies are winning games, they’re scoring runs and could very easily go off for six or seven runs here. If the Red Sox score more, oh well.
TORONTO -1½ +163 over Seattle
R.A. Dickey has 10 pure quality starts in 20 attempts this season, which is right where one would expect a knuckleballer to be. His chances for a quality start today look pretty good considering that current Mariners have had nothing but misery against Dickey. In 93 career at bats, current M’s have combined to hit just .204 against Dickey. Of the 19 hits in 93 combined AB’s, only one has left the yard and only five have been extra bases. That said, we are more interested in fading Hisashi Iwakuma than we are in backing Dickey.
After Iwakuma signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers this past winter, a failed physical sent him back to Seattle on a one-year deal (with two options). A shoulder injury cost him most of the first half of 2015. He was a free-agent pitcher that nobody wanted and that says something in this pitching starved league. Iwakuma’s 38%/41% groundball/fly-ball split doesn’t figure to play well at this venue. Neither does his 87 MPH fastball or 5.47 xERA over his last eight starts. Iwakuma has put up some decent numbers (10-6, 4.01 ERA) but his profile is a high risk one that relies heavily on batted balls in play variances. Iwakuma doesn’t strike a lot of batters. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 6%. He’s been high on our fade list practically the entire season but he’s managed to dance around some shaky outings. This park is unforgiving to those that dance so Iwakuma is likely in for a rough one.
Minnesota +223 over BOSTON
Ricky Nolasco brings risk. He’s been hit and miss all year but sometimes you just have to ignore one pitcher when attacking the other and that’s the case here. If Nolasco gets whacked, so be it but David Price is grossly overvalued here, which makes the Twins a must play in our book.
David Price has lots of pedigree. He was once elite and one of the best in the business but since the beginning of last year’s playoffs, Price has been very average and very beatable too. His line drive rate over the past eight starts of 35% is the highest among qualified starters and it’s not even close. When pitching at Fenway, hitters have been teeing off on him all season long with shots off the Monster constantly. Overall, Price’s batted ball of 42% grounders, 26% line-drives and 30% fly-balls is weak. Price’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58. In his last start against the Yankees, he was tagged for 11 hits in 5.1 frames but only three runners crossed the plate. Price still has a high K-rate and excellent control but his pitches are coming in flat and hitters have been squaring up on them. Price is absolutely capable of beating the Twins but once again, we are not in the business of predicting outcomes. What we know for sure is that the Twinkies are winning games, they’re scoring runs and could very easily go off for six or seven runs here. If the Red Sox score more, oh well.
TORONTO -1½ +163 over Seattle
R.A. Dickey has 10 pure quality starts in 20 attempts this season, which is right where one would expect a knuckleballer to be. His chances for a quality start today look pretty good considering that current Mariners have had nothing but misery against Dickey. In 93 career at bats, current M’s have combined to hit just .204 against Dickey. Of the 19 hits in 93 combined AB’s, only one has left the yard and only five have been extra bases. That said, we are more interested in fading Hisashi Iwakuma than we are in backing Dickey.
After Iwakuma signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers this past winter, a failed physical sent him back to Seattle on a one-year deal (with two options). A shoulder injury cost him most of the first half of 2015. He was a free-agent pitcher that nobody wanted and that says something in this pitching starved league. Iwakuma’s 38%/41% groundball/fly-ball split doesn’t figure to play well at this venue. Neither does his 87 MPH fastball or 5.47 xERA over his last eight starts. Iwakuma has put up some decent numbers (10-6, 4.01 ERA) but his profile is a high risk one that relies heavily on batted balls in play variances. Iwakuma doesn’t strike a lot of batters. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 6%. He’s been high on our fade list practically the entire season but he’s managed to dance around some shaky outings. This park is unforgiving to those that dance so Iwakuma is likely in for a rough one.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON -5 over Hamilton
Every week there's a story out of Hamilton trumpeting head coach Kent Austin's support of backup quarterback Jeremiah Masoli but what else is Austin supposed to say? Austin has few options while the Tabbies wait for starter Zach Collaros to return. Masoli is a turnover factory that leads the league with five interceptions. He’s also fumbled four times and lost three of them and he’s done all that in just four games. While Masoli has not done himself any favors, he hasn't had any help from a porous offensive line that's given up 13 sacks in those four games. Last week in a 31-7 win over Montreal, Masoli's poor play was covered by the Hamilton defense and another Brandon Banks touchdown return so we're not going to put much stock into that win. That game last week was 3-0 for Montreal with under a minute to go in the first half. Two weeks ago, Hamilton lost to Winnipeg and is the only team this season to lose to the Bombers. Three weeks ago, Masoli and the ‘Cats scored three points against B.C. For the Tiger-Cats to be successful today, Masoli and the Ti-Cats offense is going to have to trade punches with Mike Reilly and his plethora of weapons and frankly, that's just not a reasonable request.
The Eskimos and their backers have to be disappointed with last week's 20-16 win in Winnipeg. For bettors, that game closed at -4 in favor of Edmonton so what looked like an easy win for the Eskimos was a wash at the window. We can see why the market may be hesitant to come back on them here when they failed to put away the lowly Bombers but we see this line as an absolute steal. Reports out of Commonwealth say the Eskimos defense is chomping at the bit to get back on the field this week. The Eskimos have played in three one score games this season, which has their stock lower than it should be. However, Edmonton outgained Winnipeg by nearly 200 yards last week so that was a flattering score to the Bombers. The Eskies also dominated the Riders but some goofy mistakes made that score a lot closer than it should have been too. Edmonton led that game 33-19 late in the fourth quarter. Edmonton has been marching down field with ease all year but has shot themselves in the foot once inside the red-zone. That’s just bad luck. In three games, Edmonton has put up 20, 39 and 37 points respectively but should have put up 40 not 20 on Winnipeg last week. They also had more chances to add to those other big totals. The Eskies have not blown out anyone this year but they are superior to both Calgary and B.C., two teams that have blowout wins. Edmonton is on the verge of one and this victim is ripe to get blown out with a weak QB running the show. Edmonton’s two wins were both very close on the scoreboard and that’s why they’re underpriced here. On the stat sheet, Edmonton’s two wins should have been blowouts so asking them to win by a TD here is more than reasonable. We’ll step it up and play it for 2½ units.
EDMONTON -5 over Hamilton
Every week there's a story out of Hamilton trumpeting head coach Kent Austin's support of backup quarterback Jeremiah Masoli but what else is Austin supposed to say? Austin has few options while the Tabbies wait for starter Zach Collaros to return. Masoli is a turnover factory that leads the league with five interceptions. He’s also fumbled four times and lost three of them and he’s done all that in just four games. While Masoli has not done himself any favors, he hasn't had any help from a porous offensive line that's given up 13 sacks in those four games. Last week in a 31-7 win over Montreal, Masoli's poor play was covered by the Hamilton defense and another Brandon Banks touchdown return so we're not going to put much stock into that win. That game last week was 3-0 for Montreal with under a minute to go in the first half. Two weeks ago, Hamilton lost to Winnipeg and is the only team this season to lose to the Bombers. Three weeks ago, Masoli and the ‘Cats scored three points against B.C. For the Tiger-Cats to be successful today, Masoli and the Ti-Cats offense is going to have to trade punches with Mike Reilly and his plethora of weapons and frankly, that's just not a reasonable request.
The Eskimos and their backers have to be disappointed with last week's 20-16 win in Winnipeg. For bettors, that game closed at -4 in favor of Edmonton so what looked like an easy win for the Eskimos was a wash at the window. We can see why the market may be hesitant to come back on them here when they failed to put away the lowly Bombers but we see this line as an absolute steal. Reports out of Commonwealth say the Eskimos defense is chomping at the bit to get back on the field this week. The Eskimos have played in three one score games this season, which has their stock lower than it should be. However, Edmonton outgained Winnipeg by nearly 200 yards last week so that was a flattering score to the Bombers. The Eskies also dominated the Riders but some goofy mistakes made that score a lot closer than it should have been too. Edmonton led that game 33-19 late in the fourth quarter. Edmonton has been marching down field with ease all year but has shot themselves in the foot once inside the red-zone. That’s just bad luck. In three games, Edmonton has put up 20, 39 and 37 points respectively but should have put up 40 not 20 on Winnipeg last week. They also had more chances to add to those other big totals. The Eskies have not blown out anyone this year but they are superior to both Calgary and B.C., two teams that have blowout wins. Edmonton is on the verge of one and this victim is ripe to get blown out with a weak QB running the show. Edmonton’s two wins were both very close on the scoreboard and that’s why they’re underpriced here. On the stat sheet, Edmonton’s two wins should have been blowouts so asking them to win by a TD here is more than reasonable. We’ll step it up and play it for 2½ units.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -1.5 -125
Boston's offense surprisingly went cold in yesterday's 1-2 loss to the Twins. That came against a below average starter in Kyle Gibson and after they had just scored 24 runs on 33 hits in their previous two games. I look for the Red Sox's offense to bounce back in a big way here against Minnesota's Ricky Nolasco. I'm also expecting a dominant outing from Boston ace David Price, who is starting to turn it around with a 2.49 ERA in his last 3 starts. Price has owned the Twins in his career, going 9-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 14 career starts. Out of those 9 wins, only 1 has come by fewer than 2 runs, which is why I'm confident playing the run line here.
Red Sox -1.5 -125
Boston's offense surprisingly went cold in yesterday's 1-2 loss to the Twins. That came against a below average starter in Kyle Gibson and after they had just scored 24 runs on 33 hits in their previous two games. I look for the Red Sox's offense to bounce back in a big way here against Minnesota's Ricky Nolasco. I'm also expecting a dominant outing from Boston ace David Price, who is starting to turn it around with a 2.49 ERA in his last 3 starts. Price has owned the Twins in his career, going 9-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 14 career starts. Out of those 9 wins, only 1 has come by fewer than 2 runs, which is why I'm confident playing the run line here.
Ray Monohan
Chicago / Milwaukee Under 8.5
The Cubs and Brewers get set for a Saturday night clash and the Under holds value here. John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs and his career success against the Brewers has been phenomenal. Lackey brings in a record of 5-1, with an ERA that sits at 2.95 in 9 starts.
As for the Brewers, they counter with Zach Davies, who is enduring the best stretch of his career. Over the last 2 months, Davies has compiled a 6-1 record with an ERA that sits at just 2.95 over a 13 start span. Both starting pitchers have been stellar this season and should be able to limit the scoring opportunities here.
Some trends to consider. Under is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 36-15-2 in the last 53 meetings.
These teams have been notorious to the playing the Under. Given the starters here as well, this is a nice number and spot.
Chicago / Milwaukee Under 8.5
The Cubs and Brewers get set for a Saturday night clash and the Under holds value here. John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs and his career success against the Brewers has been phenomenal. Lackey brings in a record of 5-1, with an ERA that sits at 2.95 in 9 starts.
As for the Brewers, they counter with Zach Davies, who is enduring the best stretch of his career. Over the last 2 months, Davies has compiled a 6-1 record with an ERA that sits at just 2.95 over a 13 start span. Both starting pitchers have been stellar this season and should be able to limit the scoring opportunities here.
Some trends to consider. Under is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 36-15-2 in the last 53 meetings.
These teams have been notorious to the playing the Under. Given the starters here as well, this is a nice number and spot.
