UFC 189 Betting Preview
Although UFC 189 won't be packing quite the punch mixed martial arts fans had been anticipating for months, the show remains stacked despite the injury that forced long-time featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo to withdraw from his showdown against Conor McGregor.
The UFC spent more money promoting Aldo-McGregor than any fight in the organization's history, conducting an eight-city, five-country tour that included stops in Rio and Dublin. But less than three weeks before the fight, Aldo injured his rib during a sparring session when a training partner landed a spinning heel kick.
Therefore, McGregor (17-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC) will instead face Chad 'Money' Mendes in Saturday's main event at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The betting action has been coming in on 'The Notorious' at a fast-and-furious pace.
When Aldo pulled out, McGregor was installed as a favorite in the -125 range. As of Wednesday, most shops had McGregor listed as a -170 'chalk,' leaving Mendes as the +140 underdog. By early Thursday afternoon, McGregor was up to -185 and a few offshore spots had him at -190. Mendes was +160 at 5Dimes. The total hasn't budged much at all. It is 2.5 rounds with flat prices at most books (-110 either way).
For those bullish on McGregor but unwilling to lay the expensive price, there are other options. The best one was to bet him last week, but you can still cash if he goes about his business as he's done in four of his five previous Octagon appearances. (Other than his decision win over Max Holloway when he injured his knee early in the fight, McGregor has four finishes inside of seven minutes.)
Gamblers could take the 'under' with the thinking that McGregor gets the win before the midway mark of Round 3. There's also a prop for 'The Notorious' to win by KO for a -125 price and to win inside the distance at -145. For McGregor to win in Round 1, a +340 payout is available. For him to win in Round 3, a +500 return could be had.
Mendes (17-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has obliterated every Octagon opponent he's faced with the exception of a pair of setbacks against Aldo. After his first loss to Aldo at UFC 142, the fighter out of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento won three straight fights by first-round knockout. He would win two more fights, including a third-round KO triumph over Clay Guida, to set up a rematch with Aldo.
The rematch is considered one of the Top-10 fights in UFC history and was deemed the 2014 Fight of the Year. Aldo prevailed by unanimous decision (49-46 three times) at UFC 179 in Rio.
In his return to the cage just nine weeks ago, Mendes bounced back by knocking out Ricardo Lamas at the 2:45 mark of the first round.
Prediction: I was able to lock in McGregor at a -125 price more than a week ago. I think he'll score a knockout victory within the first two rounds, so I'm obviously bullish on McGregor and the 'under.' If the price was still -125, I'd say put seven or eight units on McGregor. However, we'll suggest plays with what we are presently working with. Therefore, I'll call for three units on the 'under' at -110. Also, one unit on McGregor to win in Round 1 (+340) and one unit for him to win in Round 2 (+500). In this scenario, these plays create a bloodbath if the fight goes past the midway mark of Round 3. However, if McGregor gets the finish in Round 1 or 2, just as he's done in all of his UFC fights in which he didn't wreck his knee, it's going to be pure profit. On second thought, let's get even more greedy with one unit on McGregor to win by KO (-125).
In the co-main event which is certainly worthy of the main-event slot on any card not featuring McGregor or Ronda Rousey, Robbie Lawler is poised to make his first welterweight title defense. 'Ruthless' will go up against Rory MacDonald, who lost a split decision to the current champ at UFC 167.
Since then, MacDonald (18-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC) has won three in a row over Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine. At long last, the 25-year-old Canadian has earned the title shot he's been groomed for since joining the promotion back in January of 2010.
MacDonald has packed his resume with impressive wins over the likes of Nate Diaz, B.J. Penn and Jake Ellenberger. His only other loss came to Carlos Condit, who rallied for a KO win with just seven seconds remaining in a fight MacDonald was clearly winning.
Lawler (25-10 MMA, 10-4 UFC) has been nothing short of sensational in his second career stint in the UFC, posting a 6-1 record with wins over Josh Koscheck, MacDonald, Ellenberger, Matt Brown and Johny Hendricks. He won the title with a split-decision win over Hendricks at UFC 181.
As of Thursday, most books had MacDonald listed as a -175 favorite with Lawler as the +145 underdog. The total is 3.5 rounds (-185 for the 'over,' +160 to the 'under').
Prediction: This is such a tough fight to call. I took Lawler in their first meeting and was able to cash a lucrative +320 ticket. Once again, I think it's a toss-up fight that could go either way. It's really hard to recommend going against either one of these guys based on their recent performance. There seems to be some value with the 'under,' but both guys have such great chins. Obviously, I'm not confident in anything so this is a pass for me unless the price gets heavily adjusted and you can get Lawler at +180 or better.
In a 145-pound battle, Dennis Bermudez (14-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC) will take on Jeremy Stephens. Bermudez is in bounce-back mode after seeing his seven-fight streak snapped by Ricard Lamas at UFC 180. The eighth-ranked 28-year-old from Long Island has notable career wins over Max Holloway, Pablo Garza and Clay Guida.
Stephens (23-11 MMA, 10-10 UFC) is hoping to avoid a third consecutive loss after dropping back-to-back decisions to Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira. He won his first three fights at featherweight, including a 40-second KO of Rony Jason by a head-kick finish. The 29 year-old Stephens, who is currently ranked 11th at featherweight, fought 15 times at 155 pounds before dropping down a division. He was 7-8 at lightweight with scalps of Cole Miller, current lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos, Sam Stout and Marcus Davis.
As of Thursday, most books had Bermudez as a -210 'chalk' with Stephens as a +175 'dog. The total is 2.5 rounds (-165 to the 'over,' +145 for the 'under').
Prediction: I lean slightly to Stephens because of the nice underdog odds, but I'm going to pass.
Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) was scheduled to face John Hathaway originally, but Hathaway pulled out due to an injury on June 23. Brandon Thatch has stepped up on short notice to face Nelson, who is off his first career loss to Rick Story by split decision.
Thatch (11-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) saw his 10-fight winning streak snapped at UFC Fight Night 60 when he was submitted by Benson Henderson by rear-naked choke in the fourth round of their main-event in Broomfield, CO. Henderson was making his welterweight debut and handed Thatch his first UFC loss after a pair of victories by first-round finish.
As of Thursday, Thatch was a -185 favorite, while Nelson was +160 on the comeback. The total was 1.5 rounds ('over' -165, 'under' +145).
Prediction: I like Nelson for one unit at +160.
In the pay-per-view opener, Brad Pickett and Thomas Almeida will collide at 10:05 p.m. Eastern.
Pickett (24-10 MMA, 4-5 UFC) has lost four of his last six times out, including a 1-2 record since dropping down to the flyweight loop. He is off a split-decision defeat against Chico Camus last November. The 36-year-old from London has bagged five Fight Night bonuses in nine career Octagon appearances. Pickett has participated in four Fights of the Night and scored KO of the Night honors with his first-round finish of Yves Jabouin in September of 2012.
Almeida (19-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) has collected a pair of victories over Tim Gorman (UD) and Jabouin (TKO) since joining the UFC. The 23-year-old Brazilian is the biggest favorite on the card (-850ish), while Pickett is available for a generous +600 return.
Prediction: Almeida will win but he's entirely too expensive.
Matt Brown (19-13 MMA, 12-7 UFC) and Tim Means will headline the preliminary card in a 170-pound showdown. 'The Immortal' has dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions to Lawler and Hendricks, but he won seven consecutive fights prior to those defeats.
Brown's most notable career wins have come over John Howard, Stephen Thompson, Mike Swick, Jordan Mein, Mike Pyle and Erick Silva. During his seven-fight roll, he won by knockout six times.
Means (24-6-1 MMA, 6-3 UFC) is riding a four-fight winning streak but will be stepping up in class to face the veteran out of Ohio.
Most books have had Brown favored in the -190 range all week, leaving Means as a +160 underdog. The total is 2.5 rounds (-120 to the 'over,' even money for the 'under').
Prediction: I love Brown to win this fight, but the better manner to wager on that is by going 'under' 2.5 rounds at even money. Give me that for three units.
Mike Swick (15-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is poised to make his first Octagon appearance in 2.5 years. He'll face Alex Garcia (12-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) as a +300 underdog.
I like Swick for one unit for the monster payout.
