Saturday 6/6/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 2 - Stanley Cup Final
By Sportsbook.ag

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (61-32-7) at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (62-33-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Chicago +110, Tampa Bay -130, Total: 5.0

The Lightning look to even up the series when they host the Blackhawks in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals on Saturday.

In Game 1, the Lightning struck fast and decided to play cautiously the rest of the way. That did not work for them as they would blow their 1-0 lead and end up losing the game 2-1. They will need to open it up a little bit in Game 2 or they are in great danger of falling behind 2-0 heading into Game 3 in Chicago.

With the victory for the Blackhawks, the team is now 2-1 both SU and ATS against the Lightning on the season. They have split wins both SU and ATS in Tampa Bay as well. The Blackhawks are 15-5 ATS in road games when playing only their second game in five days this season and 13-5 ATS in the playoffs overall. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders this season. The total has gone Under in three of the past four Lightning games and that could continue if the team continues to try to win games with a defensive mentality.

D Trevor Van Riemsdyk (Wrist) and LW Bryan Bickell (Upper Body) are both questionable for Chicago and Tampa Bay enters this game at close to full strength.

The Blackhawks were able to steal Game 1 in Tampa Bay and G Corey Crawford (10-4, 2.46 GAA, 92.1% SV% in playoffs) played very well. Crawford settled down after allowing an early goal and stopped 22 of the 23 shots he faced. He’ll need to continue to be a sturdy presence for his team moving forward.

Offensively it was LW Teuvo Teravainen (3 G, 5 A, 9 PTS in playoffs) who stepped it up for Chicago. He had a goal and an assist in the game and really came through when the Blackhawks were desperate for some firepower. C Antonie Vermette (3 G, 3 A, 6 PTS in playoffs) also scored a goal for the Blackhawks. He has been clutch throughout the postseason, but Chicago will need its usual suspects to get it going in this series.

If RW Patrick Kane (10 G, 10 A, 20 PTS in playoffs), D Duncan Keith (2 G, 17 A, 19 PTS in playoffs) and C Jonathan Toews (9 G, 9 A, 18 PTS in playoffs) are unable to make their marks in this series then it is extremely likely that the Lightning will be hoisting a trophy when it’s all over. These Blackhawks superstars must be aggressive in Game 2, as it’s unlikely that the team will win if they are pointless once again.

The Lightning got off to a fast start on a beautiful goal by C Alex Killorn (8 G, 9 A, 17 PTS in playoffs) in Game 1, but they sat on their lead and were not aggressive enough. This was the most explosive team during the regular season and it will need to try to win games with its fast-paced offense the rest of the way.

One guy who absolutely must show up for the Lightning is C Steven Stamkos (7 G, 10 A, 17 PTS in playoffs). The Lightning captain has just seven shots on goal over the past three games and has really been invisible at times throughout those games. He is one of the most potent goal scorers in the entire NHL and has to find the back of the net at some point. It would give his team a huge boost if he is to find his game in Game 2.

G Ben Bishop (12-9, 2.14 GAA, 91.9% SV% in playoffs) is going to have to be ready to stand on his head in this series. His team seemed perfectly content with playing a defensive oriented game and if that is the case then he will likely have to allow one or less goals moving forward. He was solid in Game 2 and it’s unfair to ask much more of him, as this Lightning offense should be able to provide some more scoring.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MMA OddsBreaker

Ortega v Tavares
Pick: Under 2.5

Thiago Tavares is a very aggressive fighter with a "make or break" style. Tavares looks for the knockout or submission constantly and when you combined that with his far below average durability make for a very high likelihood that this fight will not go the distance. I expect Tavares or Ortega to potentially get a submission and they could also either get a knockout in less than 12 1/2 minutes so I'm jumping all over this line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB MONEYLINE

MLB > (979) MILWAUKEE@ (980) MINNESOTA | 06/06/2015 - 02:10 PM
Play ON MINNESOTA using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+12.85 units)

MLB > (967) TEXAS@ (968) KANSAS CITY | 06/06/2015 - 02:10 PM
Play ON TEXAS using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 12 Wins and 4 Losses for the this season (+13.32 units)

MLB > (969) OAKLAND@ (970) BOSTON | 06/06/2015 - 04:05 PM
Play AGAINST BOSTON using the money line in All games at home with a money line of -100 to -125
The record is 9 Wins and 22 Losses for the last two seasons (-16.65 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB RUNLINE

MLB > (967) TEXAS@ (968) KANSAS CITY | 06/06/2015 - 02:10 PM
Play ON KANSAS CITY using the in All games when playing with a day off
The record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.5 units)

MLB > (979) MILWAUKEE@ (980) MINNESOTA | 06/06/2015 - 02:10 PM
Play ON MINNESOTA using the in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 27 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (+18.25 units)

MLB > (973) DETROIT@ (974) CHI WHITE SOX | 06/06/2015 - 07:15 PM
Play AGAINST DETROIT using the in All games in night games
The record is 8 Wins and 22 Losses for the this season (-19.1 units)

MLB > (957) SAN DIEGO@ (958) CINCINNATI | 06/06/2015 - 04:10 PM
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO using the in Road games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 12 Wins and 25 Losses for the last two seasons (-22.95 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB TOTALS

MLB > (963) ST LOUIS@ (964) LA DODGERS | 06/06/2015 - 10:10 PM
Play OVER LA DODGERS on the total in Home games in games played on a grass field
The record is 69 Overs and 37 Unders for the last two seasons (+32.15 units)

MLB > (969) OAKLAND@ (970) BOSTON | 06/06/2015 - 04:05 PM
Play OVER OAKLAND on the total in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 32 Overs and 17 Unders for the this season (+15 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB TOP POWERLINES

MLB > (965) HOUSTON @ (966) TORONTO | 06/06/2015 - 01:05 PM
Line: TORONTO -160 BTB PowerLine: TORONTO 104
Edge On: TORONTO (39)

MLB > (967) TEXAS @ (968) KANSAS CITY | 06/06/2015 - 02:10 PM
Line: KANSAS CITY -160 BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -179
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (19)

MLB > (953) SAN FRANCISCO @ (954) PHILADELPHIA | 06/06/2015 - 03:05 PM
Line: PHILADELPHIA +170 BTB PowerLine: PHILADELPHIA 256
Edge On: PHILADELPHIA (56)

MLB > (969) OAKLAND @ (970) BOSTON | 06/06/2015 - 04:05 PM
Line: BOSTON -105 BTB PowerLine: BOSTON 141
Edge On: BOSTON (26)

MLB > (971) BALTIMORE @ (972) CLEVELAND | 06/06/2015 - 04:10 PM
Line: CLEVELAND -140 BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND -107
Edge On: CLEVELAND (13)

MLB > (957) SAN DIEGO @ (958) CINCINNATI | 06/06/2015 - 04:10 PM
Line: CINCINNATI -120 BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI -129
Edge On: CINCINNATI (9)

MLB > (959) PITTSBURGH @ (960) ATLANTA | 06/06/2015 - 07:10 PM
Line: ATLANTA -115 BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA -124
Edge On: ATLANTA (9)

MLB > (973) DETROIT @ (974) CHI WHITE SOX | 06/06/2015 - 07:15 PM
Line: CHI WHITE SOX +140 BTB PowerLine: CHI WHITE SOX 154
Edge On: CHI WHITE SOX (14)

MLB > (977) TAMPA BAY @ (978) SEATTLE | 06/06/2015 - 10:10 PM
Line: SEATTLE -175 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE -123
Edge On: SEATTLE (27)

MLB > (963) ST LOUIS @ (964) LA DODGERS | 06/06/2015 - 10:10 PM
Line: LA DODGERS -190 BTB PowerLine: LA DODGERS -156
Edge On: LA DODGERS (5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL TOTALS

NHL > (3) CHICAGO@ (4) TAMPA BAY | 06/06/2015 - 07:15 PM
Play UNDER CHICAGO on the total in Road games in non-conference games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2015 baseball information

National League

Cubs @ Nationals
Hammel is 1-1, 2.51 in his last four starts; six of his last eight stayed under.

Ross (Tyson Ross' brother) is making MLB debut; he is 2-2, 2.81 in nine starts in AA Eastern League this season. .

Cubs lost seven of last ten games with Washington, with five of last six going under total; they're 4-7 in last 11 games overall. Eight of last ten Cub games stayed under. Washington lost six of last eight games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven.

Giants @ Phillies
Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.81 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Gonzalez is 2-0, 3.77 in his last three starts; three of his four starts went over.

Phillies lost nine of last 11 games; last four went over- they've also lost eight of last ten agains the Giants, with three of last four going over total. SF lost five of last six games, outscored 35-19; over is 4-0-2 in those six games.

Padres @ Reds
Cashner is 1-2, 5.32 in his last four starts; four of his last six stayed under. San Diego scored a total of ten runs in his last ten starts.

Lorenzen is 1-0, 1.85 in his last four starts; over is 3-2 in his starts.

San Diego won its last five games with Cincinnati, allowing five runs; under is 7-1-1 in last nine series games. Padres won four of last five games overall; over is 7-0-2 in their last nine games. Reds won four of last six home games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games overall.

Pirates @ Braves
Locke is 1-1, 6.98 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.

Teheran is 2-0, 1.69 in his last two starts; nine of his last ten starts overall went over the total.

Pirates won 11 of last 13 games; over is 6-0-2 in their last eight. Pirates won five of last six games with Atlanta. Braves are 4-7 in last 11 games; over is 5-0-1 in their last six.

Marlins @ Rockies
Phelps is 0-2, 5.48 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under.

Rusin allowed one run in seven IP (90 PT) in his only '15 start.

Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games with Colorado; over is 5-2-1 in last eight. Miami won five of last seven games; eight of their last eleven stayed under. Rockies won six of last nine games, with three of last five going over.

Mets @ Diamondbacks
Colon is 3-2, 7.94 in his last five starts; over is 3-1-1 in those five.

Anderson is 1-0, 2.65 in his last six starts; seven of his last ten went under.

Mets won eight of last ten games with Arizona; road team won nine of the ten games. Under is 5-0-1 in last six series games. NY lost three of their last four games; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Arizona won three of last four games; over is 5-0-3 in their last eight.

Cardinals @ Dodgers
Garcia is 1-3, 3.96 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under.

Kershaw is 3-1, 2.89 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Dodgers lost five of last seven games with Cardinals; seven of last eight in series stayed under. St Louis won ten of last 12 games; seven of its last nine stayed under. Dodgers are 3-7 in their last ten games overall.

American League
Orioles @ Indians
Jiminez is 0-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; six of his last nine went under.

Salazar is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; six of his last eight went over.

Orioles lost six of last ten games with Cleveland; last five stayed under. O's lost five of last six games overall, outscored 28-17- five of their seven went under total. Indians won six of last nine games; five of their last six stayed under the total.

Angels @ Bronx
Richards is 2-2, 5.13 in his last four starts; his last three all went over.

Warren is 1-3, 3.04 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under; Bronx scored total of nine runs in the four games.

Angels lost five of last six games with Bronx; four of the six games stayed under total. Halos won five of last eight; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Bronx won won five of last six games; six of its last eight went over.

Astros @ Blue Jays
Oberholtzer is 0-2, 3.10 in his last four starts, but averaged only 4+ IP per start. All four games stayed under.

Hutchison is 3-1, 2.20 in his last four home starts; last three stayed under.

Houston won seven of last eight games with Toronto, but seven of eight were played in Texas; over is 7-4 in last 11 series games. Astros won four of last seven games with six of seven staying under. Blue Jays won four of last five home games.

A's @ Red Sox
Chavez is 1-2, 1.93 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.

Kelly is 0-4, 6.82 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Oakland won nine of last 13 games; they lost four of last five games with Boston- three of last five went over. Red Sox lost seven of last 11 games, with five of last six staying under. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Oakland games.

Tigers @ White Sox
Price is 1-1, 2.95 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Danks is 2-2-, 3.78 in his last five starts; four of the five stayed under.

Detroit lost its last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. Tigers are 5-4 in last nine games with White Sox, with three of last four staying under total. Pale Hose are 0-4 in game following their last four wins.

Rangers @ Royals
Rodriguez is 1-0, 3.57 in his last three starts; seven of his last eight starts stayed under the total.

Ventura is 1-1, 2.14 in his last three starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Texas lost five of last eight games with Kansas City; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Rangers won six of last seven games overall. Royals lost eight of last ten games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11.

Rays @ Mariners
Colome is 1-1, 3.86 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.

Hernandez is 2-2, 4.05 in his last four starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine.

Tampa Bay lost six of last eight games with Seattle; road team won ten of last 11 series games, with nine of last 11 staying under. Rays won six of last seven games; over is 3-2-1 in their last six. Mariners lost their last seven games, scoring 13 runs.

Interleague
Brewers @ Twins
Garza is 0-3, 11.66 in his last three starts, all of which went over, but he threw five scoreless innings in relief Sunday as Brewers won a 17-inning game. .

Graham is making first MLB start; he is 0-0, 3.10 in 14 relief stints this year, in 20.1 innings- four of 11 runs he allowed were unearned. He was 1-5, 5.59 in 17 starts in AA Southern League LY.

Milwaukee lost seven of last ten games with Minnesota; eight of the ten went over total. Brewers lost eight of last 11 games; seven of last ten went over the total. Twins won seven of their last eleven games.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Wsh-- Hammel 5-5; Ross 0-0
SF-Phil-- Bumgarner 7-4; Gonzalez 2-2
SD-Cin-- Cashner 2-9; Lorenzen 3-2
Pitt-Atl-- Locke 5-5; Teheran 7-4
Mia-Colo-- Phelps 3-6; Rusin 0-1
NY-Az-- Colon 8-3; Anderson 2-8
StL-LA-- Garcia 1-2; Kershaw 6-5

Balt-Clev-- Jiminez 5-5; Salazar 7-2
LA-NY-- Richards 6-3; Warren 6-4
Hst-Tor-- Oberholtzer 2-0; Hutchison 6-5
A's-Bos-- Chavez 2-6; Kelly 4-6
Det-Chi-- Price 9-2; Danks 5-5
Tex-KC-- Rodriguez 5-3; Ventura 4-6
TB-Sea-- Colome 3-4; Hernandez 9-2

Mil-Min-- Garza 3-7; Graham 0-0

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Wsh-- Hammel 2-10; Ross 0-0
SF-Phil-- Bumgarner 2-11; Gonzalez 3-4
SD-Cin-- Cashner 4-11; Lorenzen 0-5
Pitt-Atl-- Locke 3-10; Teheran 4-11
Mia-Colo-- Phelps 3-9; Rusin 0-1
NY-Az-- Colon 3-11; Anderson 4-10
StL-LA-- Garcia 2-3; Kershaw 3-11

Balt-Clev-- Jiminez 1-10; Salazar 4-9
LA-NY-- Richards 0-9; Warren 3-10
Hst-Tor-- Oberholtzer 1-2; Hutchison 3-11
A's-Bos-- Chavez 1-8; Kelly 6-10
Det-Chi-- Price 3-11; Danks 4-10
Tex-KC-- Rodriguez 4-8; Ventura 3-10
TB-Sea-- Colome 2-7; Hernandez 2-11

Mil-Min-- Garza 4-10; Graham 0-0

Umpires
Chi-Wsh-- Seven of last ten West games went over.
SF-Phil-- Home side won five of last six Winters games.
Mia-Colo-- Last four Randazzo games went over total.
SD-Cin-- Six of seven Hickox games went over total.
Pitt-Atl-- Five of last seven Hamari games went over.
NY-Az-- Seven of nine Ripperger games stayed under.
StL-LA-- Over is 9-1-1 in Bucknor games this year.

Hst-Tor-- Eight of last nine BWelke games went over.
Tex-KC-- Four of last six Culbreth games went over.
A's-Bos-- Four of last five Wendelstedt games stayed under.
Balt-Clev-- Underdogs won eight of ten Fairchild games.
Det-Chi-- Underdogs are 5-5 in Blaser games this year.
LA-NY-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Marquez games.
TB-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Tumpane games.

Mil-Min-- Last six Basner games stayed under the total

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 68 Preview
By Brian Edwards

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to The Big Easy on Saturday for a 12-fight card at the Smoothie King Center. The initial main event for UFC Fight Night 68 had Daniel Cormier slotted to take on Ryan Bader in DC's home state, but that changed after Jon Jones got into his legal mess.

Therefore, Cormier won the light-heavyweight belt two weeks ago and Bader was removed from the card. The new main event will feature a middleweight clash between Dan Henderson and Tim Boetsch.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Boetsch (18-8 MMA, 9-7 UFC) installed as a -210 favorite, while Henderson is the +175 underdog (risk $100 to win $175). The 'over/under' is 1.5 rounds ('over' -145, 'under' +125).

Henderson (30-13 MMA, 7-7 UFC) has lost five of his last six fights, but the 44-year-old hasn't indicated that he's considering retirement anytime in the near future. In his defense, we should note that four of those five defeats came against current or former UFC champs. In addition, two of the defeats (against Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans) came via split decision.

Henderson is back at middleweight for a second straight fight. 'Hendo' was KO'd for just the second time in his career his last time out, falling to Gegard Mousasi in the first round on a stoppage that Henderson contested. Mousasi had landed a big shot to Henderson's eye in the opening moments, instantly causing blurred vision.

After the fight, Henderson said he knew the eye was going to be an issue so he tried to get aggressive and land one of his thunderous right hands. He paid for it with a counter punch by Mousasi and subsequent strikes that prompted the referee to intervene.

Henderson hasn't won since beating Shogun Rua by third-round KO more than 15 months ago.

Boetsch, also known as 'The Barbarian,' used to fight at 205 like Henderson. In his run at middleweight going back to 2011, the Maine product has gone 6-4 with notable wins over the likes of Yushin Okami, Hector Lombard, C.B. Dolloway and Brad Tavares. Boetsch won a Performance of the Night bonus with his second-round KO of Tavares last year. He was submitted by Thales Laites in his last trip into the Octagon in January by a second-round arm-triangle choke.

Prediction: I don't think Henderson can beat the UFC's elite anymore at his age. However, this is a significant step down in the class of his opponent after facing the likes of Mousasi, Cormier, Rua, Evans, Machida and Fedor. I think this is a toss-up fight for the side and I lean to the 'over.' However, the -145 price attached to the 'over' makes me hesitant. Assuming you can get Henderson at +175 or better, I'll suggest one unit on Hendo. I'm not against an 'over' play, especially if you can get the price at -140 or cheaper, but I'll refrain.

In the co-main event, ninth-ranked Ben Rothwell and No. 13 ranked Matt Mitrione will collide in a crucial heavyweight showdown. Mitrione is a -190 'chalk,' while Rothwell is the +160 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (-115 either way).

Mitrione (9-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) has won three consecutive fights since being submitted by Brendan Schaub nearly two years ago. His most recent conquests include Shawn Jordan, Derrick Lewis and Gabriel Gonzaga by way of first-round KOs. Mitrione earned a pair of 50K Performance of the Night bonuses in the wins over Gonzaga and Jordan.

Rothwell (34-9 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is looking for his third consecutive win after back-to-back victories over Brandon Vera (third-round KO) and Alistair Overeem (first-round KO). He also knocked out Schaub at UFC 145 in just 70 seconds, but he was submitted by Gonzaga in January of 2013.

Prediction: I see one of these guys finishing the other in the opening round. Consider this: win or lose, Mitrione's last six fights have ended in Round 1. I'll go with 'under' 1.5 rounds for five units! I lean to Mitrione to get the win for his better overall athleticism and cardio, but I won't knock anyone wanting to go with the underdog because of his vicious one-punch KO power.

In the lightweight loop, Dustin 'Diamond' Poirier (17-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC) fights for the second straight time at 155 pounds. He made the move up from 145 after losing to Connor McGregor.

Poirier's lightweight debut was spectacular, as he dominated Carlos Diego Ferreira with a first-round KO that earned the native Louisianan a Performance of the Night bonus. He returns to old stompin' grounds to take on Yancy Medeiros.

Most spots have Poirier installed as a -185 favorite, while Medeiros is a +160 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds ('over' -160, 'under' +140).

Medeiros (11-2, 1 no-contest MMA, 2-2, 1 NC UFC) is coming off back-to-back submission victories over Joe Proctor and Damon Jackson that earned him a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses.

Prediction: I think Poirier wins but unless the price comes down to -160 or cheaper, it's a tad too 'chalky' for my taste. Therefore, I'll go with one unit on 'under' 1.5 rounds for the +140 payout. I'll also place one unit on Poirier to win by TKO or KO in a prop bet (at 5Dimes) for a +265 return (risk $100 to win $265). In this scenario, a split nets a profit on this fight and a clean sweep would be a big score.

Another heavyweight tilt to keep your eyes on will pit Shawn Jordan against Derrick Lewis. Jordan, nicknamed 'The Savage,' played football at LSU and was a member of the 2007 national-title team. He is looking for a third straight win, while Lewis is hoping to improve upon his 3-1 UFC ledger (his lone loss came to Mitrione).

The side for this fight is a pick 'em (-110 or -115 either way), while the total is 1.5 rounds and forces bettors to lay an expensive -170 price for the 'under.' I think it goes 'under' but -170 will keep me away. I lean to Jordan here, so I'll play him for one unit.

The first two fights are televised only on UFC Fight Pass. The next 10 bouts from New Orleans will be free on Fox Sports 1 starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Henderson's recent record has been terrible

Dan Henderson is one of the biggest names in the MMA world, but the legendary fighter has won just one of his last six fights.

The fights are getting harder and harder to watch too as 'Hendo' managed to make it the distance in those first two, but has been finished early in the other losses.

Henderson is currently +175 when he takes on Tim Boetsch Saturday, in what could be his last fight in the UFC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blackhawks are no “cadeaux” when it comes to betting the Cup final
By JON CAMPBELL

“Le cadeaux” is a term my gambling buddies and I like to call those rare betting opportunities that poke their heads up only a handful of times each year and you end up torturing yourself over how much money you’ll put on them.

It means “a gift” in French and of course they don’t always win, hence the torture.

One of those “cadeauxs” emerged from hiding and showed itself at the start of the Stanley Cup finals series when the Chicago Blackhawks were slated to win the championship at somewhere between -135 and -160 at many sportsbooks.

Or so I thought.

It wasn’t that I saw the Tampa Bay Lightning as a bad team – I am certain they are great – I was just on the consensus side that this squad didn’t have the talent, depth or experience to match up with a Chicago team in search of its third Cup in six seasons.

And now that I’m one game up with my futures ticket in hand and the Stanley Cup futures odds bumped to -300, I am less sure of winning this bet more than ever.

Tampa Bay skated circles around the Blackhawks in the first period of Game 1, ultimately winning the battles in shots, hits, blocked shots and faceoffs by the time the final horn sounded. There were stretches in the first period especially where you’d swear oddsmakers had the wrong team favored – and by a lot.

Ultimately, it did seem to be the depth of the Blackhawks that helped Chicago score two quick goals in final minutes of the third to edge the Lightning. But I expect the Lightning to have learned a lot from Game 1 and I’ll be surprised if every game in this series isn’t a barn burner.

Odds worth a look in Game 2

Keeping in mind that games in this series should be closely contested, you may want to take a peek at the odds for either team to win by one goal, set at +250 for both the Blackhawks and the Lightning at bet365.com. It’s a much better payout than the -130 or +110 odds you’ll find simply for the straight-up win by any score.

The only stat that matters for bettors – the money

If you want to decide who the better team is based on the stack of money beside it these playoffs, Chicago is your team. And it’s not even close.

If you’d been risking a $100 unit on every game - meaning you risk $100 when the team is an underdog and risking enough to win $100 when the team is favored – the Blackhawks are up almost $800 on the Lightning.

Chicago is 13-5 in the postseason for a betting total of $914 while the Lightning are 12-9 and have scraped out a narrow profit of just $163. It’s feasible that Tampa Bay could come very close to winning the Stanley Cup but could be a losing bet game-to-game.

Compare that with the Ducks, who turned out a profit of $575 for their backers but lost in the conference finals.

Conn Smythe odds

Blackhawks super captain Jonathan Toews opened as the Conn Smythe favorite at +250 before this series began but now Chicago defenseman Duncan Keith is the frontrunner at +225.

If you like the Bolts to come and win the series, don’t even consider anyone other than Tyler Johnson, who sits at +650.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

NHL

Chicago at Tampa Bay - Saturday June 6, 2015

The Blackhawks look to follow up their 2-1 win in Game 1 and come into Saturday’s contest with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Chicago is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+110).

Game 3-4
June 6, 2015 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago 13.980
Tampa Bay 12.822

Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1 6

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay -130 5


Dunkel Pick:
Chicago (+110); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Lightning lost its last three home games, allowing 14 goals; they allowed two goals 1:58 apart in third period of Game 1 after holding a 1-0 lead for over two periods. Blackhawks won two of the last five Stanley Cups; they're 3-2 in last five road games- four of their last five games overall went over total. They generally find a way to win. Tampa Bay won six of last eight games with Chicago, winning four of last five played here- three of the five here were decided in OT/SO. Four of last five series games stayed under. With series shifting to Chicago for Game 3, huge game for Lightning to win here.

 

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NBA Finals Game 1 Recap
Antony Dinero

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is in the books as the Warriors stopped the Cavaliers 108-100 in overtime. Golden State used the extra session to cover as a six-point home favorite and ‘over’ bettors also took advantage of the extra five minutes as the combined 208 points slid above the closing total of 204.

Below are my thoughts from the opener that lived up to the hype.


Loaded Reserves

You knew that the Golden State bench was going to be more of a factor for the Warriors in the series than it would be for the depleted Cavs, but I don’t think the visitors envisioned being outscored 34-9. All of Cleveland’s points came courtesy of J.R. Smith as James Jones took just one 3-pointer in his 17 minutes and Matthew Dellavedova wound up a -13 in his nine scoreless minutes. Considering they played 53 minutes, one could reason that the Cavs’ OT meltdown could indeed be blamed on the lack of bench production, particularly since three of the starters played 44 or more minutes.


Banged-Up

One of those who toiled for nearly the entire game was surprisingly Kyrie Irving, who was moving around wonderfully until overtime, leaving with an apparent knee injury after an awkward fall. Before his demise, it should be pointed out that he was a +5 on the floor, really making a difference in spreading the floor and taking some pressure off LeBron James. Considering how ineffective Dellavedova was, Irving’s availability for Sunday’s Game 2 is going to swing the series. It will be interesting to see how high the point spread jumps if Irving isn’t around, as it would likely jump from the 5.5-6 points we saw in Game 1 to closer to 8 if he’s completely unavailable.


X’s and O’s

Golden State’s Steve Kerr played all 10 of the guys who received time at least nine minutes, which included Marreese Speights in his return to the lineup for his first action since early May. He ended up shooting 4-for-8 and helped change the game in the second quarter after the Warriors opened the contest down 10 after a quarter. Despite missing a month, Speights picked up right where he left off in aggressively hunting shots, taking eight in his nine minutes, tying Andre Iguodala for most field goal attempts among Warriors reserves. Iguodala, tasked heavily with LeBron James duty, played 32 minutes.


Man or Machine?

Besides Irving’s injury, James scoring 44 points and taking 38 shots was Game 1’s major development. It’s obvious he’s meeting this challenge head on, knowing there’s no one else on the roster that’s going to help him engineer such a major upset. Usually, James is more of a passer early in a series, looking to get teammates into a comfort zone while preferring to make his adjustments after he sees how a team is attacking him defensively on film. He took 38 shots in Game 1, connecting on nearly half. Despite a steady rotation of bodies running at him, James never looked uncomfortable, so he won’t be discouraged by anything he’ll study between now and Sunday.

As was the case in 2007, he’s on an island in terms of having to try and win an NBA Finals on his own. Unlike that San Antonio series, he’s actually mentally equipped to put an entire team on his shoulders eight years later against Golden State. Provided Irving can return and be a factor, the Cavs can go down 0-2 in Oakland and still feel good about their chances heading home if they can put together another effort similar to Game 1. Cleveland lost the rebounding battle 48-45, but won the battle for points in the paint (44-40) and were successful in slowing the game down to the pace it wanted to play. Getting into OT on the road in a series opener is proof the Cavs aren’t overmatched in this series. They let one get away, but no one will be walking into Sunday’s Game 2 discouraged.


Betting Notes

1st Quarter: Cavaliers covered as two-point underdogs, total stayed under 51 ½

1st Half: Cavaliers covered as 3 ½-point underdogs, total stayed under 102 ½

2nd Half: Warriors covered as 5 ½-point favorites, total went ‘over’ 102 ½

Team Totals: The Cavaliers (98 ½) and Warriors (104 ½) both went ‘over’ their numbers


Series Update

Just like the teams will adjust, so will the oddsmakers.

(Opening Odds per Sportsbook.ag before Game 1 in parentheses)
**Updated after Irving injury news**

NBA Finals

Golden State vs. Cleveland (Warriors lead 1-0)
Warriors (-220) -700
Cavaliers (+185) +500


NBA Finals - Exact Game Props

Golden State vs. Cleveland
4 Games Warriors Win (8/1) 5/2
5 Games Warriors Win (13/5) 11/10
6 Games Warriors Win (5/1) 7/2
7 Games Warriors Win (16/5) 8/1

4 Games Cavaliers Win 20/1
5 Games Cavaliers Win (17/2) 50/1
6 Games Cavaliers Win (18/5) 20/1
7 Games Cavaliers Win (13/2) 12/1

 

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Irving injury has big impact on series price
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving is out for the rest of the NBA Finals with a torn kneecap, the team announced Friday.

Irving suffered a knee injury in the late stages of Game 1's 108-100 overtime loss versus the Golden State Warriors and was doubtful for Game 2 before the news broke. The 23-year-old's recovery time is expected to be 3-4 months.

In light of the announcement, books moved the Warriors from -7.5 to -8 for Game 2 on Sunday.

Peter Childs

"Where I place the most value is on the series price," Childs said. "I simply don't think the Cavs can win this series without Irving."

Sportsbooks adjusted the Warriors series price from -410 to -750 immediately after the severity of the injury was revealed. The Cavaliers' chances fell from +330 to +550.

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 8:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$78767 - SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE - 3 YEAR OLDS. STARTING FEE $1,000 CDN $825 U.S.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 TRACEUR HANOVER 5/1


# 9 PIERCE HANOVER 7/2


# 2 MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP 5/2


Really keen on the probability of TRACEUR HANOVER taking down the winner's share here. Many horse players know speed is is such an important factor. This standardbred has credentials with a 87 average number. A very nice class horse can't be passed over. With an average class number of 83 all signs point to yes. This nice horse recorded a competitive TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. Looks to be in top form to come right back. PIERCE HANOVER - Sucee fits this harness racer's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some magnificent results when teaming up. Positive feel - doing work well enough to contend in this outing. MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP - This entrant looks very good. Take a good look at the 93 average TrackMaster SR.

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81
- Purse:$3700 - N/W $1,200

CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 NICE DREAM 8/1


# 4 REVERIE DEVICTOIRE 9/2


# 6 ASHCROFT 5/2


NICE DREAM is the clear stand out bet in the eyes of the handicapping group especially at such a decent 8/1. Many handicappers know speed is is such an important factor. This horse has credentials with a 83 avg stat. This gelding has been racing versus some of the most competitive company in this bunch most recently. Is a clear-cut win contender given the 76 TrackMaster speed fig from his most recent race. REVERIE DEVICTOIRE - A very nice win figure has been earned by solid standardbreds starting from the 4 hole. Many expert selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This fine animal has credentials with a 80 avg number. ASHCROFT - Gelding and trainer go together like cookies and milk. They finish in the money 67 percent of their races. If performance in the most recent competition is any indication, this race horse will have a very competitive shot in here. High last race speed rating.

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 71

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 HEARTS HARBOR 3/1


# 1 WIDE RULE 5/2


# 5 HOLMES HARBOR 7/2


I give my vote to HEARTS HARBOR here. Has to be given a shot here if only for the solid Equibase speed fig recorded in the last race. He has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this field. WIDE RULE - This gelding is a definite contender based on his earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. HOLMES HARBOR - No strangers to the winner's circle, Wenzel and Bowen should have this gelding breaking away from the field. With a competitive 66 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest.

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BLENDED 2/1


# 5 BOLD N LOVELY 4/1


# 1 ANASAZI LASS 3/1


BLENDED looks very strong to best this field. Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been competitive - 68 avg - of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Cloutier running at this distance are the top in this field. Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be on the front end early on. BOLD N LOVELY - Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. The speed rating of 76 from her last contest looks formidable in here. ANASAZI LASS - Should best this group of horses here, showing very good figs of late. Ought to be given consideration based on the formidable speed rating posted in the last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline - Race #6 - Post: 7:55pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 TEXAS FIRE (ML=8/1)
#6 LEMON SHERBERT (ML=6/1)
#7 MADELYN'S WILD MAX (ML=5/1)


TEXAS FIRE - Rodriguez is back for another race today after racing atop this horse for the first time on Apr 25th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Last ran at Evangeline and finished fourth. Reviewing his past performance data, I see he was close at the end, within five of the winner. LEMON SHERBERT - Taking this jockey/trainer combination is a good choice. This gelding is a gem of consistency, almost always on the board. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a key handicapping aspect. This racer is ranked at the top of the list in this bunch. MADELYN'S WILD MAX - Gelding won shipping here on April 25th and looks good right back. This horse has increased his speed figs in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TY'S BANDIT (ML=3/1), #8 OLLIE BABY (ML=4/1), #5 RYLAND T (ML=6/1),

TY'S BANDIT - 3/1 is too low of a price to take on this entrant. OLLIE BABY - Never really did much at all last time around the track on April 29th. Hard to wager on today. Not likely that the rating he registered on Apr 29th will be good enough in this race. RYLAND T - When looking at today's class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #3 TEXAS FIRE to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7,8,9] with [3,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36