Saturday 6/4/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Harry Bondi

HOUSTON -120 over Oaklana

Houston is a much better team when at home, especially when Colin McHugh toes the rubber. The right-hander is 22-11 in 36 career starts on this field and the Astros bullpen has compiled an impressive 2.19 ERA and 0.90 WHIP inside Minute Maid Park. The price is right. Lay the short number at home with Houston

 

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Bob Balfe

Orioles -125

The Orioles have been good at home this year and have been crushing the baseball. The Yankees have not been good on the road this year and of late have been struggling to produce a lot of runs. Baltimore is always a safe play in their own park.

 

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ASA

Yankees / Orioles Over 8.5

The Orioles have won 3 straight games and 5 of their last 8 and it is thanks to a surging offense that has produced 6.4 runs per game in this 8 game stretch. The Orioles have reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 10 games and should pound the Yankees Nova today. Nova has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Orioles and has a 5.20 ERA in 14 career starts against Baltimore. Toeing the rubber for the Orioles today is Tyler Wilson. The Baltimore right-hander has been roughed up for 11 earned runs in his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in his starts this season. The over is 7-2-1 in Baltimore's last 10 home games. The Orioles enter Saturday's action on a 3-game winning streak and Baltimore has gone 7-3 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. We expect these strong trends to continue tonight.

 

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Bruce Marshall

Houston -1.5 +125

The Astros are cranking things up as they continued their ascent in the AL West with Friday's 12-2 win over the A's. On Saturday it will be turn of starter Collin McHugh, whose strikeout totals have soared in recent outings (26 in his last three starts), the last two of those being wins. Meanwhile the A's have lost in six of Kendall Graveman's last seven starts.

 

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DWAYNE BRYANT

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -160

Houston snapped Oakland's five game winning streak with a 12-2 rout in the series opener last night. The Astros have won nine of their last 11 games. I expect another Astros win today.

Houston's Collin McHugh is in great current form, producing 26 strikeouts and just three walks in his last three starts (21 1/3 innings). Oakland's active hitters own a combined .254 BA, .688 OPS & .305 wOBA in 73 PA against McHugh.

Kendall Graveman has been a disaster. He owns a 7.23 ERA, 1.82 WHIP & .393 OBP in his five road starts this season. Active Houston hitters own a combined career .333 BA, .912 OPS & .399 wOBA in 34 PA against him.

The Astros also have a significant edge when the bullpens get involved.

Based on advanced metrics, Houston is my #10 team against righties, while the Athletics are #26.

 

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CARMINE BIANCO

Ecuador at Brazil
Play: Under 2.5

Today's Bonus Play will be a late nighter as Ecuador face Brazil in the group B opener for both sides in a match being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasedena, California. A couple points to consider here which is why I'll lean to the Under 2 1/2 tonight. Brazil come into the competition looking to get back the reputation as one of the worlds best but they'll have to do it will a weakened squad as two of their stars will miss the competition. Neymar has decided to forgo the competition and get ready for the Olympics later this summer while Douglas Costa arguably their 2nd best striker is out with an injury and this week his replacement Kaka was also injuried. They'll have to find goals elsewhere but with players such as Gustavo, Oliveira and Rafinha also missing it may become that much harder. Ecuador although not a South American powerhouse come in knowing they've drawn into a weak enough group that advancing into the knockout stages is possible and a point here would be valuable so i'd expect a tight formation. Although they've used a 4-4-2 formation recently they may go to a 4-2-3-1 formation and long to strangle the Brazil attack in midfield. I'll lean on the Under 2 1/2 here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BUSTER SPORTS

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals +117

The starting pitchers for today's game are for the Royals RH Ian Kennedy (4-3, 3.03 ERA) and he faces the Indians RH Josh Tomlin (7-1, 3.79) Kennedy has been one of our watch pitchers all year and although he has only a 4-3 win/loss record he has on many occasions deserved a better fate. In his last 3 starts he has held teams to 2 runs or less and came out with 3 no decisions to show for it. Now that's Hard Luck. On May 7, Kennedy was in Cleveland and received lots of run support as the Royals won 7-0 and Kennedy pitched 7 solid innings allowing only 4 hits. We will be looking for more of the same today. His opponent Josh Tomlin has had a great year himself going 7-1 but has had trouble with the Royals in the past, as he has a ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.210 in all starts against the Royals. Also Tomlin has been way better on the road this season with a 2.93 ERA. At home his ERA is a lofty 4.67 although he has won 3 out of 5 games started and a no decision in the other. So you can see Tomlin has been getting lots of run support so far this year. With the Royals hopefully getting their catcher Salvador Perez back today, that should be an added boost needed for the Royals to get the win. The Royals really don't need any more motivation as the Indians now only sit a half game behind them in the AL Central following yesterdays victory.

 

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Wunderdog Sports

Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Toronto +120

The resurgent Toronto Blue Jays have won four in a row and suddenly only 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East Division after Friday's 5-2 win at Boston. Marcus Stroman gets a second chance at the Red Sox after a poor outing last time out in a 10-9 Blue Jays win. Stroman has pitched much better on the road this season where he is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA compared to 1-1 and 6.39 at home. The Red Sox have lost three in a row and Toronto has won five of the last six meetings, including a 5-3 win on April 17 against today's starter, Steven Wright. Toronto is 7-1 in Stroman's last eight road starts and 17-6 his 23 starts overall dating to last season. Play the Blue Jays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Info Plays
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Rockies vs. Padres Padres
-113 at BMAKER

1* Bonus Play on Padres -113

 

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Michael Alexander
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Mets vs. Marlins Mets
-109 at BMAKER

Rating: 2 Unit MLB Free Pick

New York starter Colon turned in his second straight strong outing on Sunday, following up his one-run, five-hit performance in a win over Washington by surrendering just two runs in six innings of a no-decision versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 43-year-old Dominican has kept the ball in the park in each of his last three outings and allowed just six homers in 61 innings this season. Colon owns a strong 7-4 career mark versus Miami with a 2.92 ERA, but did not pitch in the teams' initial series in April.

 

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Dave Price
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Yankees vs. Orioles Orioles
-119 at Pinnacle

Dave's Saturday Bonus Play:

1* on Baltimore Orioles -119

The Key: The Baltimore Orioles are one of my favorite teams to back when they are playing at home. They are never big home favorites, but they win at home at an alarming rate. Indeed, the Orioles are 25-10 in their last 35 home games overall. Baltimore is 50-19 in its last 69 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are also 79-35 in their last 114 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 0-6 in Ivan Nova's last 6 starts vs. AL East opponents. Nova sports a 5.20 ERA in 14 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. He has given up 14 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. Take Baltimore.

 

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Jimmy Boyd
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Brewers vs. Phillies Phillies
-107 at PINNACLE

Free Pick on Phillies -

Philadelphia is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Brewers. The Phillies snapped their 7-game losing streak with a 6-3 win over Milwaukee last night and I look for them to be the more motivated team here with the quick turnaround for today's afternoon matchup.

The Phillies will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Hellickson has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last 4 starts. A stretch where he's only given up 19 hits and 3 walks in 27 innings of work. Hellickson is also 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.736 WHIP in 3 day starts this season.

Milwaukee is just 16-49 in their last 65 games against a starter who has a WHIP less than 1.15 and 3-7 in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after hitting .225 or worse as a team over their last 15 games. Take Philadelphia!

 

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Brandon Lee
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Red Sox
-119 at BMAKER

10* FREE MLB PICK (Red Sox -119)

Boston is worth a look here at home on Saturday against division rival Toronto. The Red Sox are going to be motivated after losing 3 straight and it's worth noting they haven't lost 4 in a row this season. Boston will give the ball to knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 starts. Wright has been on the wrong end of some bad luck in his 2 starts against the Blue Jays this season, as he's lost both decisions, despite only allowing 3 runs with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. Toronto counters with Marcus Stroman, who has struggled a bit of late. He allowed 7 runs on 11 hits in his last start, which was against Boston. It was the second time in his last 3 outings that he allowed 7 runs and 10 or more hits. Give me the Red Sox -119!

 

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Jeff Alexander
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Angels vs. Pirates Pirates
-120 at 5dimes

1* MLB FREE PICK on Pirates -120

We are simply getting too good of a price to back the Pirates at home in this one. Pittsburgh is simply undervalued here due to having lost 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall. The thing to keep in mind is most of those losses came on the road. They did lose at home in the series opener last night, but that was a tough spot. I'll take my chances on the Pirates putting an end to their skid behind starter Jeff Locke, who has a 2.42 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last 3 starts, including a complete game 3-hit shutout in his most recent outing. Adding even more value here is the fact that the Pirates are 23-7 in their last 30 home day games. Cash the Pirates -120!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Rays vs. Twins Rays
-109 at PINNACLE

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Tampa Bay Rays -109

The Tampa Bay Rays put an end to a five-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory over the Twins yesterday. I look for them to pick up back-to-back wins for the first time since May 18-20 due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Matt Andriese has not lost this season, going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in five starts. He has certainly been a pleasant surprise with the biggest key to his success being the fact that he's only given up one homer in 34 1/3 innings.

Ervin Santana just hasn't been very good this season for the Twins. He's 1-4 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in nine starts. Santana also hasn't enjoyed success against the Rays, going 6-6 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.

Minnesota is 7-27 (-18.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Twins are 2-16 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Santana is 1-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 1-15 (-14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. Bet the Rays Saturday.