SPORTS WAGERS
Houston -1½ -104 over TEXAS
Lance McCullers’ 2.48 ERA is completely legit while Andrew Cashner’s 2.92 ERA is a complete mirage. McCullers has an impressive BB/K split of 19/73 in 65 innings to go along with the best groundball rate in the majors at 61%. Nothing more needs to be said other than he’s pitching for the hottest team in baseball and while spotting 1½-runs and a little juice may not seem like a bargain, it actually is because this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions at a severe hitter's park.
We faded Cashner last time out in Toronto and he somehow Houdini-ed is way to seven full innings of five hit, one run ball. Of the 26 batters that Cashner faced in Toronto, he struck out two. In 52 innings, Cashner has walked 27 and struck out 23. That does not add up to an ERA under 3.00. His 86% strand rate over his last seven starts is the highest among starters over that span. This is a pitcher with weak skills that has been living off of strand percentage and hit percentage luck. He’ll now face one of the fiercest offenses in the game that work pitchers to the bone because of their collective great plate discipline. The Astronauts have struck out the second fewest times in MLB and take the 10th most walks. Cashner’s charmed season is about to blow up and if it doesn’t blow up here, we’ll be fading Cashner again.
BALTIMORE +110 over Boston
Dylan Bundy comes in with a 2.89 ERA but if you follow this game closely then you’ve probably read or heard that he’s a strong candidate for regression. His xERA or xFIP is close to 4.50 because he only has 49 K’s in 72 innings and he also has a groundball/fly-ball split of 31%/49%. We’re not entirely sold on Bundy either but his newfound durability combined with a swinging strike rate that has mostly held from what he did in 2016 suggests he can live in the mid-3s in ERA and isn’t the regression candidate that expected results believe he is. What sticks out is that he has 10 ***pure quality starts in 11 tries and his line drive rate of 20% is elite. Bundy took some important steps forward last year. First, and most importantly, he stayed healthy all year. Yes, indeed, his xERA says there's work to do but with Bundy's elite prospect pedigree, ability to miss bats and the possible re-emergence of a cutter/slider early in '17, there's considerable breakout potential. Aside from that, we’re not buying that the Red Sox are as good as these prices suggest. It may surprise you to learn that Boston has hit the fewest home-runs in the AL and second fewest in all of baseball.
David Price’s season debut against the White Sox last week went pretty well. He threw 88 pitches and had a swinging strike rate of 14%. He allowed just two hits in those five frames, he walked two and he struck out four but he still can’t be favored on the road. Price was fortunate that some of those hard hit balls were right at people. One of the hits was a bomb. His line drive rate was 30%. Incidentally, the Red Sox lost that game 5-4 as a -180 favorite and now Price is road chalk again. The market is giving way too much credit to Price. His ERA/xERA (3.99/3.92) last year in 35 starts was the worst in his career and he’s not getting any younger. He’s two months behind the rest of the league so with only two rehab starts and one MLB start, this is still like spring training for Price. He allowed 12 hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings over those two aforementioned rehab starts. Add it all up and both Price and the Red Sox are wrongly favored here and we’re on it.
***The old quality start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. So when we mention PURE quality starts (PQS), we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.
