Dave Cokin
Dave’s Bonus Play, Saturday 10:10 PM MLB
(981) CLEVELAND INDIANS (982) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take: (982) SEATTLE MARINERS -123
This play is almost all about the way I read the betting line and making a decision based on what I believe the books are trying to accomplish. But first, a few analytical notes on the matchup itself.
The Indians aren’t nearly as explosive against lefties, so their first look at Roenis Elias could be a challenge. Elias came from out of nowhere to secure a rotation spot with the Mariners, with pre-season injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker throwing competition for the back end of the starting staff wide open. Elias figured to get a few starts until Iwakuma returned, and then likely would be shuttled to the farm for more seasoning. But Elias grabbed the bull by the horns, and he’s now in great shape to hold his spot on a permanent basis. Elias has enjoyed quite a bit of success in first meetings, so he appears to have an advantage against the Tribe tonight.
Josh Tomlin has been okay overall for Cleveland, but not good lately. Tomlin is on a three-start skid and the bad numbers weren’t a product of bad luck, as he has been hit hard recently. He’s up against a Mariners team that doesn’t intimidate anyone, but has actually been better than most might think.
The team data is pretty close to a wash, with the check marks pretty much split down the middle. So it’s a game where the Mariners figured to be favored, but not at a particularly high price. That’s where my read on the betting line comes into play.
As soon as I saw the first true opening number on this game at -150, and then saw what’s considered by many to be the sharpest of the offshore stores come in at -140, I pretty much knew where I would end up on this game. Those openers guaranteed heavy number cruncher action on the dog. There’s just nothing on the breakdown of this game to indicate the Mariners being anywhere close to -150 here. Yet there it was, and sure enough, the Indians dollars came rolling right in, and I believe they could continue to do as the sheep mentality sets in.
Oddsmakers are not dumb. There might be a shaky number here and there, but when they “miss” by this much, there’s usually a method to the apparent madness. My take on this game is that the books knew they would be writing lots of Indians tickets with the price they set, and when the house is encouraging action one way, I will starting looking the other way. That’s the game plan here, and I’m backing the Mariners tonight.
