At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
It’s going to be a long day on Saturday, with first post at Belmont Park coming at 1:30 ET and the final race at Churchill Downs coming nearly 10 hours later.
At Churchill Downs we have five stakes races including the $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). First post is 6:00 ET.
Actually, our last race on my Best Plays Report for Saturday is the $100,000 Regret (G3) which is the ninth of 11 races with a post time of 10:11 ET.
The Churchill Downs card also features the $200,000 Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2), a ”Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
In the field is Untapable, who won the 2014 Distaff but has won just once in eight tries since and comes into the race riding a six race losing streak. Her last outing was a disappointing fourth in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park, a race she won last year.
She is 7-5 on the morning line in a field of six and seems likely to be sent off at 4-5. She has burned so much money in her six starts it’s tough to back her even in this softer spot.
I’ll give a look to Ahh Chocolate, who was a good looking winner of the Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico in her last outing.
The feature at Belmont Park on Saturday comes early, the $300,000 Poker (G3) carded as the fourth race on the 10-race card.
A field of six was entered including the speedy Obviously, who is the 9-5 morning line favorite. As you can see below I am looking to beat him with Offering Plan from the Chad Brown barn.
Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (1:30 ET)
#6 Giant Fox 6-1
#3 Outlash 6-5
#2 Againsome 7-2
#1 Swivel 5-1
Analysis: Giant Fox appears to have the best shot of beating the chalk in here. The five-year-old is coming off a decent third last out behind a nine length winner at this level over a wet track and off a 2 1/2 month break. Two back on the inner track he was third behind repeat winner Hector's Pride, who beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing. Both of his wins have come at a mile including his maiden score here.
Outlash dueled for the early lead and could not go with the winner late in a runner up finish at 6-5 last out against $25,000 non-winners of three. he drops in for $14,000 for the Levine barn that has been on the chilly side at the meeting (2 for 37). The logical winner here but his price is going to be too short.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 3,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 4 The Poker G3 (3:04 ET)
#4 Offering Plan 6-1
#6 Takeover Target 4-1
#1 Grand Arch 7-2
#3 Obviously 9-5
Analysis: Offering Plan is one of two in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn. Last out off a 5 1/2 month layoff he made a good late rally to get up late and beaten Alw-2 optional claimers. He won the English Channel over the turf here last fall at this distance. Despite the short field there should be an honest pace and this guy still appears to have some upside and is going to be a decent price in this spot. The barn is 25% winners with runners making their second start off a 45-180-day layoff.
Takeover Target is also sent out by Brown. The colt came with a seven wide run and got up to win the Dixie (G2) last out at Pimlico on Preakness Day. He has won three of his five trips over the Belmont turf including winning the Hill Prince (G3) here last fall. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and will be rolling late.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 8 The Stephen Foster Hcp G1 (9:39 ET)
#7 Eagle 6-1
#3 Effinex 1-1
#2 Bradester 5-1
#4 Majestic Harbor 5-1
Analysis: Eagle made a good late rally while five wide to finish in the runner up spot in the Alysheba (G2) last out on Oaks Day. He did not get much pace to run at and may get more here. He won the Ben Ali (G3) two back over Noble Bird in a sharp effort at Keeneland. He has run well over the main track here landing in the exacta in three of five trips and we should catch a fair price.
Effinex won the Oaklawn 'Cap (G2) last out over a suspect group. He won the Clark 'Cap (G1) here last fall showing his runner up finish to American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at 33-1 was no fluke. He picks up a new rider in Stevens as Mike Smith remains in SoCal to ride Songbird. Jerkens has been very live the past few months but this guy is going to be a light price.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R6: #7 Love You Babe 10-1
R8: #11 Circus Performer 8-1
R9: #10 Midnight Notes 10-1
R10: #1 Great Lady 10-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
It’s going to be a long day on Saturday, with first post at Belmont Park coming at 1:30 ET and the final race at Churchill Downs coming nearly 10 hours later.
At Churchill Downs we have five stakes races including the $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). First post is 6:00 ET.
Actually, our last race on my Best Plays Report for Saturday is the $100,000 Regret (G3) which is the ninth of 11 races with a post time of 10:11 ET.
The Churchill Downs card also features the $200,000 Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2), a ”Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
In the field is Untapable, who won the 2014 Distaff but has won just once in eight tries since and comes into the race riding a six race losing streak. Her last outing was a disappointing fourth in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park, a race she won last year.
She is 7-5 on the morning line in a field of six and seems likely to be sent off at 4-5. She has burned so much money in her six starts it’s tough to back her even in this softer spot.
I’ll give a look to Ahh Chocolate, who was a good looking winner of the Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico in her last outing.
The feature at Belmont Park on Saturday comes early, the $300,000 Poker (G3) carded as the fourth race on the 10-race card.
A field of six was entered including the speedy Obviously, who is the 9-5 morning line favorite. As you can see below I am looking to beat him with Offering Plan from the Chad Brown barn.
Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (1:30 ET)
#6 Giant Fox 6-1
#3 Outlash 6-5
#2 Againsome 7-2
#1 Swivel 5-1
Analysis: Giant Fox appears to have the best shot of beating the chalk in here. The five-year-old is coming off a decent third last out behind a nine length winner at this level over a wet track and off a 2 1/2 month break. Two back on the inner track he was third behind repeat winner Hector's Pride, who beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing. Both of his wins have come at a mile including his maiden score here.
Outlash dueled for the early lead and could not go with the winner late in a runner up finish at 6-5 last out against $25,000 non-winners of three. he drops in for $14,000 for the Levine barn that has been on the chilly side at the meeting (2 for 37). The logical winner here but his price is going to be too short.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 3,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 4 The Poker G3 (3:04 ET)
#4 Offering Plan 6-1
#6 Takeover Target 4-1
#1 Grand Arch 7-2
#3 Obviously 9-5
Analysis: Offering Plan is one of two in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn. Last out off a 5 1/2 month layoff he made a good late rally to get up late and beaten Alw-2 optional claimers. He won the English Channel over the turf here last fall at this distance. Despite the short field there should be an honest pace and this guy still appears to have some upside and is going to be a decent price in this spot. The barn is 25% winners with runners making their second start off a 45-180-day layoff.
Takeover Target is also sent out by Brown. The colt came with a seven wide run and got up to win the Dixie (G2) last out at Pimlico on Preakness Day. He has won three of his five trips over the Belmont turf including winning the Hill Prince (G3) here last fall. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and will be rolling late.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 8 The Stephen Foster Hcp G1 (9:39 ET)
#7 Eagle 6-1
#3 Effinex 1-1
#2 Bradester 5-1
#4 Majestic Harbor 5-1
Analysis: Eagle made a good late rally while five wide to finish in the runner up spot in the Alysheba (G2) last out on Oaks Day. He did not get much pace to run at and may get more here. He won the Ben Ali (G3) two back over Noble Bird in a sharp effort at Keeneland. He has run well over the main track here landing in the exacta in three of five trips and we should catch a fair price.
Effinex won the Oaklawn 'Cap (G2) last out over a suspect group. He won the Clark 'Cap (G1) here last fall showing his runner up finish to American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at 33-1 was no fluke. He picks up a new rider in Stevens as Mike Smith remains in SoCal to ride Songbird. Jerkens has been very live the past few months but this guy is going to be a light price.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R6: #7 Love You Babe 10-1
R8: #11 Circus Performer 8-1
R9: #10 Midnight Notes 10-1
R10: #1 Great Lady 10-1
Good luck today!