Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Saturday
RANGERS (Lewis) at MARINERS (Paxton) 10:10 PM
Take: MARINERS -140
First off, the line I’m using here is a consensus number as this game has a pretty wide variance right now. I played it at -132, although most of the shops were at -135 when I sent the play out to my clients. It has since gone up at several stores, and is actually as high as -151 was I’m writing this piece. The average price presently is -140, so I’ll grade it at that price as far as the Bonus Play ledger is concerned.
As for the game between the Rangers and Mariners, this is mostly about James Paxton. I believe Paxton rates a follow off his last start. The Mariners lost that game 3-1, but two of the runs allowed by Paxton were pretty much thanks to a botched play at the plate by his catcher. Paxton was otherwise pretty sensational, with several triple digit heaters. I made up my mind off that start to play him in his next outing. This lefty has always had a live arm, but injuries and command issues have slowed his progress. Whether or not one start is a harbinger of things to come remains to be seen. But I do know this. If Paxton can command his triple digit missiles as he did against Cleveland, he’s going to start winning plenty of games.
Colby Lewis has had some astonishing good fortune all season, and I suppose that’s a worry of sorts. But Texas hasn’t been as prolific with the sticks on the road against lefties, and the Mariners have some really good offensive numbers against righties, particularly lately. Bullpen data favors the Mariners if it comes to that.
There’s no question whatsoever that I’m running with the smallest sample possible here on Paxton. Off the early wagering on this game, I’m clearly not alone in that regard. But the way I see it, this is a guy with a chance to take off, and if that happens to be the case, better to try and arrive when the party is starting than after it’s already underway and all that’s remaining is expensive table scraps. I’ll back Paxton and the Mariners tonight.
Bonus Play Saturday
RANGERS (Lewis) at MARINERS (Paxton) 10:10 PM
Take: MARINERS -140
First off, the line I’m using here is a consensus number as this game has a pretty wide variance right now. I played it at -132, although most of the shops were at -135 when I sent the play out to my clients. It has since gone up at several stores, and is actually as high as -151 was I’m writing this piece. The average price presently is -140, so I’ll grade it at that price as far as the Bonus Play ledger is concerned.
As for the game between the Rangers and Mariners, this is mostly about James Paxton. I believe Paxton rates a follow off his last start. The Mariners lost that game 3-1, but two of the runs allowed by Paxton were pretty much thanks to a botched play at the plate by his catcher. Paxton was otherwise pretty sensational, with several triple digit heaters. I made up my mind off that start to play him in his next outing. This lefty has always had a live arm, but injuries and command issues have slowed his progress. Whether or not one start is a harbinger of things to come remains to be seen. But I do know this. If Paxton can command his triple digit missiles as he did against Cleveland, he’s going to start winning plenty of games.
Colby Lewis has had some astonishing good fortune all season, and I suppose that’s a worry of sorts. But Texas hasn’t been as prolific with the sticks on the road against lefties, and the Mariners have some really good offensive numbers against righties, particularly lately. Bullpen data favors the Mariners if it comes to that.
There’s no question whatsoever that I’m running with the smallest sample possible here on Paxton. Off the early wagering on this game, I’m clearly not alone in that regard. But the way I see it, this is a guy with a chance to take off, and if that happens to be the case, better to try and arrive when the party is starting than after it’s already underway and all that’s remaining is expensive table scraps. I’ll back Paxton and the Mariners tonight.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Saturday, June 11, 2016 10:05 PM ET
(975) CLEVELAND INDIANS VS (976) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take: OVER
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, June 11, 2016 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Cleveland Indians and the Angels from Anaheim. Cleveland has been roasting the baseball on offense, the over is 9-2-1 in the Indians last 12 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are home and 15-5-2 over the total against a right-handed starter. Starter Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 5.40 ERA) is struggling, allowing four runs in 7.2 innings in Monday's loss to the Yankees. He allowed eight hits and struck out six without walking a batter. Play Cleveland/LA Angels Over the total.
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Saturday, June 11, 2016 10:05 PM ET
(975) CLEVELAND INDIANS VS (976) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take: OVER
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, June 11, 2016 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Cleveland Indians and the Angels from Anaheim. Cleveland has been roasting the baseball on offense, the over is 9-2-1 in the Indians last 12 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are home and 15-5-2 over the total against a right-handed starter. Starter Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 5.40 ERA) is struggling, allowing four runs in 7.2 innings in Monday's loss to the Yankees. He allowed eight hits and struck out six without walking a batter. Play Cleveland/LA Angels Over the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Astros vs Rays
Bonus Play Tampa Bay Rays
I'm recommending a play on the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. The Rays, winners in six of their last seven games will send Chris Archer to the mound to battle the Astros. Archer struggled earlier this season, but he's pitched quite well at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .190 BAA. The right-hander has recorded 39 strikeouts in 31 IP at Tropicana Field in 2016. Archer has dominated the Astros, allowing just 3 earned runs and 23 base runners, with 34 strikeouts in 33 2/3 IP. In fact, the right-hander owns a .127 BAA in those five starts. Houston counters with Mike Fiers, who has been a mess on the road in five appearances, including four starts. His team has dropped each of his last five road starts, overall. The Rays will look to extend their winning streak to seven straight at home over the Astros and to 22-6 in their last 28 meetings, overall. We believe they'll get it done. I'm recommending a play on the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Astros vs Rays
Bonus Play Tampa Bay Rays
I'm recommending a play on the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. The Rays, winners in six of their last seven games will send Chris Archer to the mound to battle the Astros. Archer struggled earlier this season, but he's pitched quite well at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .190 BAA. The right-hander has recorded 39 strikeouts in 31 IP at Tropicana Field in 2016. Archer has dominated the Astros, allowing just 3 earned runs and 23 base runners, with 34 strikeouts in 33 2/3 IP. In fact, the right-hander owns a .127 BAA in those five starts. Houston counters with Mike Fiers, who has been a mess on the road in five appearances, including four starts. His team has dropped each of his last five road starts, overall. The Rays will look to extend their winning streak to seven straight at home over the Astros and to 22-6 in their last 28 meetings, overall. We believe they'll get it done. I'm recommending a play on the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Matt Josephs
A's vs Reds
Bonus Play Oakland Athletics
Daniel Mengden makes his long awaited MLB debut on Saturday as the A's take on the Reds. Mengden is 5-1 with a 1.19 ERA in 11 starts over AA and AAA. The righty has 67 strikeouts to just 22 walks in 68.1 innings of work. The scouting reports say that he has four pitches and his offspeed stuff complements his fastball which can go as high as 98. The Reds are putting up good offensive numbers right now, but they are just 1-7 in interleague games. Oakland's bullpen has some reliable pieces should they get a lead late. Daniel Straily has allowed 10 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts and is the picture of mediocrity. Oakland is scoring 4.1 runs per game in the day time and has a lineup capable of doing some work in this one. The big reason I like the road team is the Reds bullpen which is putting up historically awful numbers.
A's vs Reds
Bonus Play Oakland Athletics
Daniel Mengden makes his long awaited MLB debut on Saturday as the A's take on the Reds. Mengden is 5-1 with a 1.19 ERA in 11 starts over AA and AAA. The righty has 67 strikeouts to just 22 walks in 68.1 innings of work. The scouting reports say that he has four pitches and his offspeed stuff complements his fastball which can go as high as 98. The Reds are putting up good offensive numbers right now, but they are just 1-7 in interleague games. Oakland's bullpen has some reliable pieces should they get a lead late. Daniel Straily has allowed 10 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts and is the picture of mediocrity. Oakland is scoring 4.1 runs per game in the day time and has a lineup capable of doing some work in this one. The big reason I like the road team is the Reds bullpen which is putting up historically awful numbers.
Mike Lundin
Tigers vs Yankees
5* MLB Free Pick New York Yankees
The New York Yankees recorded a fifth consecutive win, their sixth in seven games, when they shut out the Detroit Tigers in a 4-0 victory last night. I like the Bronx Bombers to repeat that success in Saturday's contest.
Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.76 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held opponents to a total of four runs on 20 hits covering 27 innings in his past four starts. Tanaka posted a 4.77 ERA in two meetings with Detroit last year, but he also recorded 12 Ks through 11 1/3 innings of work.
The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander (5-5, 3.97 ERA) who's been better home at Comerica Park than on the road where he's 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA. He faced New York once last year, absorbing the loss while surrendering six runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Tigers are 0-8 in Verlander's last eight road starts vs. Yankees. Yankees are 5-0 in Tanaka's last five home starts.
Tigers vs Yankees
5* MLB Free Pick New York Yankees
The New York Yankees recorded a fifth consecutive win, their sixth in seven games, when they shut out the Detroit Tigers in a 4-0 victory last night. I like the Bronx Bombers to repeat that success in Saturday's contest.
Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.76 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held opponents to a total of four runs on 20 hits covering 27 innings in his past four starts. Tanaka posted a 4.77 ERA in two meetings with Detroit last year, but he also recorded 12 Ks through 11 1/3 innings of work.
The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander (5-5, 3.97 ERA) who's been better home at Comerica Park than on the road where he's 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA. He faced New York once last year, absorbing the loss while surrendering six runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Tigers are 0-8 in Verlander's last eight road starts vs. Yankees. Yankees are 5-0 in Tanaka's last five home starts.
