Weekend Primer
By Matt Zylbert
Upcoming Series to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
How appropriate is it that during one of the main junctures of the six-month-long Major League Baseball campaign -- Memorial Day -- that the best teams from each league square off in a compelling holiday weekend series? Baseball’s best team, the Cardinals, has had quite the test over the past week, playing their last seven games against fellow contenders, the Tigers and Mets. The result? A 3-4 performance over that stretch, and it doesn’t get any easier as they travel to “The K” in Kansas City.
The Royals have continued to be one of baseball’s best stories, proving that they’re certainly no fluke whatsoever, and currently own the AL’s best record at 26-14. They’re also warming up again, having won five of six, including a two-game sweep of Cincinnati in their last series that saw them outscore the opposition 10-1. Thus, we have arguably the best two teams in all of baseball set to clash while in rhythm, in this annual battle of Missouri. These two clubs also carry the two best run differentials in the game today, as Kansas City is first with a +64 mark, while the Cardinals narrowly trail behind them at +56. It’s a product of just how good both teams have been on both sides of the ball, which could actually make this -- dare I say it -- a potential World Series preview. The Royals have the best home record in the American League at 15-6, which might give them the slight edge. They’re the standard -110 in game one tonight, with veteran Chris Young, who has been surprisingly terrific, facing Lance Lynn.
Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
Heading into Memorial Day Weekend, there are still numerous people wondering just how real the Astros are; this series could serve to further prove their legitimacy. Theoretically, this is Houston’s toughest challenge to date, as Detroit owns the best record of any team the Astros have faced thus far. And if the opening game of this series is any indication -- which the Tigers won, 6-5, yesterday afternoon in extra innings -- it could be a key series victory for Detroit in this four-game set.
These two clubs rank third and fourth, respectively, in the American League in runs scored this season, so the over could be a popular bet as the rest of this series unfolds, although both the Astros and Tigers do not have a standout record for overs entering Friday. As to who will prevail, it’s hard to go against Houston. They’re still proving that they’re no fluke, having won 23 of their past 32 games, and have lost only one series over the past month-and-change. Detroit, meanwhile, has been relatively consistent, hovering around first place in the AL Central since the season first began. From that standpoint, this looks like a tough series to get a beat on, but there could certainly be an overriding amount of offense that aids overs.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Two American League powerhouses that have underachieved entering the Memorial Day holiday reside right here in this upcoming three-game series, with the Angels and Red Sox set to do battle at Fenway. This series is worth covering not just for that reason, but also because Boston currently possesses a streak of nailing eight consecutive under bets.
Can their glaring run of unders continue through tonight’s opener? It’s tough to say. Their offense, which is obviously better than how its performed recently, will be taking on Garrett Richards in game one, and he’s been mostly tremendous in picking up where he left off before last year’s season-ending injury. Thus, it’s reasonable to think that Richards can continue to keep their bats at bay. The Angels, meanwhile, have been streaking with seven wins in their past ten games and own one of the more potent lineups in baseball. Plus, they may get Albert Pujols back in the lineup tonight. Either way, it’s an important series for both squads, who are looking to get back on track at this always-intriguing juncture of the season. Trying to tail Boston’s current run of unders might be a dangerous proposition.
Other Weekend Thoughts
-- The Reds are quietly emerging as a potential team to fade regularly. Coming into the season, I had them finishing in last place, and was not convinced by their 4-0 start to the year, so their downfall doesn’t surprise me. Since then, they’ve gone 14-22 and enter this series on a five-game losing streak. I’ll admit, their offense has looked pretty live this year, even with Devin Mesoraco in injury limbo (as in he still hasn’t been placed on the disabled list despite the fact that he hasn’t been able to catch for several weeks), but the lack of depth at the end of their starting rotation is troublesome. You could get fine value this weekend betting against them with the last-place Indians at home, who are probably better than their record. In Friday night’s opener, the Indians are +140 home ‘dogs with Carlos Carrasco on the mound, opposing Mike Leake. There’s potential there with Leake coming off a dreadful outing his last time out.
-- Remember when the Giants were 3-9 in mid-April and people started to already count out the defending World Series champs? That’s exactly why you don’t give into small sample sizes in the beginning of the season. Ever since that point, San Francisco has gone 20-9 to come within 1.5-games of first-place Los Angeles in the NL West, including carrying a five-game winning streak into tonight’s opening matchup with the Rockies. They also are coming off an impressive sweep of the Dodgers in which they shut them out in every game for only the second time in franchise history. Clearly, the Giants are cruising, especially with Hunter Pence back, while the Rockies have been a consistent fade all throughout May, losing 13 of 17 games this month. As a result, it might be a wise venture to take San Francisco for the series, who will get better value in this spot being the road team.
Fearless Prediction
-- If you’re looking for a series to latch onto a team that might be in the midst of a big run, than the upcoming Cubs/Diamondbacks series in The Desert might be right up your alley. On one side, you have the streaking Cubs, who have won eight of their past ten to regain a stronghold on second place in the NL Central. This has largely been thanks to the club’s pitching, which has yielded three runs or less in nine of their last 11. In the process, they’ve cashed five straight unders, and have a chance to continue that with ace Jon Lester on the hill tonight in the series opener. He’s facing a fellow Opening Day starter who’s generated more overs this year, however, that being Josh Collmenter. Arizona, meanwhile, has been doing a little streaking of their own, coming off a crucial four-game sweep of the reeling Marlins, putting an end to their own previous four-game losing streak. As a result, this could be a competitive series, with the Diamondbacks seeking to get back to .500, but Chicago appears poised to keep on rolling.
