What's behind MLB's best Over bets?
Baseball bettors are warned to take the first month of the MLB season with a grain of salt. Surprise trends tend to even themselves out over the course of the schedule but sometimes these trends are so impressive, bettors can’t help but jump all over them.
One of the most shocking trends showing its face in April is the Over explosion involving three clubs: the San Francisco Giants (9-1 Over/Under), Arizona Diamondbacks (9-3 O/U) and Minnesota Twins (8-1 O/U).
This quick lean to the Over is so surprising since these three clubs have notoriously sided with the Under in past seasons. Minnesota finished at 70-87-5 O/U last season – the third best Under bet in baseball – while Arizona (71-84-7 O/U) and San Francisco (73-80-9 O/U) both paid out for Under bettors more often than not in 2013.
We ask some of the top baseball handicappers and oddsmakers in the industry which one of these three teams can continue to top the totals and which ones is destined for a drop off:
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been known for their championship-caliber pitching staff in recent seasons, but also for a lineup that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a kayak in McCovey Cove. San Francisco, which plated only 629 runs last season, has flipped that reputation in 2014.
It’s scoring 5.5 runs a night and ranks third in the bigs in home runs (14) while the staff boasts a ho-hum 3.94 collective ERA. The lineup added some important bats, like Michael Morse, and the play of a healthy Angel Pagan at the top of the order has helped the Giants generate more runs. San Francisco’s star-studded rotation is another year old with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum showing a decline.
“The Giants staff is much better (than the Twins or Diamondbacks), coughing up just 4.6 RPG,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “On the flip side, only the White Sox and the Rockies are averaging more offensive RPG than San Francisco. Frisco's Over run is largely attributable to its hitting as opposed to its pitching.”
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs sit at the bottom of the National League West, with their 5.86 ERA as much to blame for their 4-8 start as their 9-3 Over/Under record. However, Arizona did take two of three against the Giants this week, outscoring San Francisco 16-15 over three games – topping the total in all three.
Mark Trumbo has been at the wheel of this recent power surge for the Diamondbacks, hitting five home runs with 13 RBIs. Paul Goldschmidt is benefitting from having that pop behind him in the order, putting up a .370 BA with two home runs and eight RBIs. But those improving scores can’t make up for the lack of talent in the rotation.
“Pitching has been the killer for the D-backs,” Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director at the Atlantis Casino in Reno, tells Covers. “Losing (starter Patrick) Corbin for the season really hurt, and they were expecting much more from their bullpen than they have received so far. Being in a hitters’ ballpark hasn’t helped, but their pitching has been terrible so far this season.”
Minnesota Twins
The Twins fall into a similar situation as Arizona, lugging an embarrassing 6.31 ERA – worst in the majors – into Friday’s action. Minnesota has given up seven or more runs six times already this year and has one quality start among its starters.
The Twins were doing their best to combat those pitching woes with offense, averaging 5.11 runs per game. However, the well may be running dry. Minnesota managed to score just eight runs over its three-game series sweep at the hands of the Oakland A’s this week and now take on an improved Kansas City rotation that is giving up only three runs an outing.
“They went out and signed starting pitchers Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey over the last season or two as they realize they have no pitching,” says Mikkelson. “In addition, their only young pitcher who is decent – Samuel Deduno - got moved to the pen. Until this team can find some pitching, they will remain terrible and give up a ton of runs.”
Baseball bettors are warned to take the first month of the MLB season with a grain of salt. Surprise trends tend to even themselves out over the course of the schedule but sometimes these trends are so impressive, bettors can’t help but jump all over them.
One of the most shocking trends showing its face in April is the Over explosion involving three clubs: the San Francisco Giants (9-1 Over/Under), Arizona Diamondbacks (9-3 O/U) and Minnesota Twins (8-1 O/U).
This quick lean to the Over is so surprising since these three clubs have notoriously sided with the Under in past seasons. Minnesota finished at 70-87-5 O/U last season – the third best Under bet in baseball – while Arizona (71-84-7 O/U) and San Francisco (73-80-9 O/U) both paid out for Under bettors more often than not in 2013.
We ask some of the top baseball handicappers and oddsmakers in the industry which one of these three teams can continue to top the totals and which ones is destined for a drop off:
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been known for their championship-caliber pitching staff in recent seasons, but also for a lineup that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a kayak in McCovey Cove. San Francisco, which plated only 629 runs last season, has flipped that reputation in 2014.
It’s scoring 5.5 runs a night and ranks third in the bigs in home runs (14) while the staff boasts a ho-hum 3.94 collective ERA. The lineup added some important bats, like Michael Morse, and the play of a healthy Angel Pagan at the top of the order has helped the Giants generate more runs. San Francisco’s star-studded rotation is another year old with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum showing a decline.
“The Giants staff is much better (than the Twins or Diamondbacks), coughing up just 4.6 RPG,” says Covers Expert Marc Lawrence. “On the flip side, only the White Sox and the Rockies are averaging more offensive RPG than San Francisco. Frisco's Over run is largely attributable to its hitting as opposed to its pitching.”
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs sit at the bottom of the National League West, with their 5.86 ERA as much to blame for their 4-8 start as their 9-3 Over/Under record. However, Arizona did take two of three against the Giants this week, outscoring San Francisco 16-15 over three games – topping the total in all three.
Mark Trumbo has been at the wheel of this recent power surge for the Diamondbacks, hitting five home runs with 13 RBIs. Paul Goldschmidt is benefitting from having that pop behind him in the order, putting up a .370 BA with two home runs and eight RBIs. But those improving scores can’t make up for the lack of talent in the rotation.
“Pitching has been the killer for the D-backs,” Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director at the Atlantis Casino in Reno, tells Covers. “Losing (starter Patrick) Corbin for the season really hurt, and they were expecting much more from their bullpen than they have received so far. Being in a hitters’ ballpark hasn’t helped, but their pitching has been terrible so far this season.”
Minnesota Twins
The Twins fall into a similar situation as Arizona, lugging an embarrassing 6.31 ERA – worst in the majors – into Friday’s action. Minnesota has given up seven or more runs six times already this year and has one quality start among its starters.
The Twins were doing their best to combat those pitching woes with offense, averaging 5.11 runs per game. However, the well may be running dry. Minnesota managed to score just eight runs over its three-game series sweep at the hands of the Oakland A’s this week and now take on an improved Kansas City rotation that is giving up only three runs an outing.
“They went out and signed starting pitchers Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey over the last season or two as they realize they have no pitching,” says Mikkelson. “In addition, their only young pitcher who is decent – Samuel Deduno - got moved to the pen. Until this team can find some pitching, they will remain terrible and give up a ton of runs.”
