Saturday 3/7/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals March 7, 06:30 EST

Cavaliers beating Syracuse 59-47 as a 5.5 point road favorite Monday put a nine game winning streak on the line when they visit Louisville Cardinals off a 71-59 home chalk loss vs Notre Dame. Cavaliers have thrived on the road this season, going 11-0 with a 9-2 record against the betting line. Cardinals have been solid at home going 14-4 but have been terrible bets at 4-12-1 ATS. Neither team light's up the scoreboard, Cavaliers net 65.8 PPG on 46.3% shooting, the Cardinals somewhat better put 69.9 through the iron per/game on 43.0% from the field. However, both thrive on the defensive end with Cavaliers being the nation's best at 50.0 PPG on a second best 35.5% shooting. Cardinals with their own brand of tough defensive play allow 59.3 per/contest on 38.5% shooting. When these two went at it earlier both shot under 40% in a Cavalier victory that played 'Under'. Two defensive minded teams look for more of the same in this meeting. Betting trends point to 'Under'. Cavaliers have held four of the past five opponents to less than 50 points/game (4-1 'Under'), hit the hardwood 5-1-1 'Under' last seven road games. Cardinals have played 'Under' in 8 of their last 10 and are on a 10-2 'Under' stretch on home court.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Michigan State (-8.5) thrashed Indiana 70-50 at home Jan 5, leading by 30 with 13:13 left (was 36-17 at half). Spartans were +22 on boards, held Hoosiers to 5-24 from arc. State won five of their last seven games, three of last four on road- they covered last four tries as road favorite. Indiana is 4-7 in its last 11 games, losing last two at home by 4-14 points. dogs are 7-1 vs spread in Indiana's home tilts; Hoosiers are 2-0 as home dogs.

Butler/Providence are in 3-way tie for #2 seed in Big East; Friars (+5.5) won 66-62 at Butler Jan 6, holding Butler to 34.9% inside arc in a game Butler led 36-29 at half. Providence won four of last five games, losing to Villanova; they're 4-2 as home favorites, winning four of last five at home with wins by 7-11-7-11 points. Butler split its last six games, is 3-2 as a road underdog, winning three of last four away from home.

Home side won last nine LSU-Arkansas games; Tigers won three of last four games, splitting last four on road; they're 4-1 as road underdog, with road losses by 7-6-6 points. Arkansas won eight of last nine games; they blew 20-point lead in last game at South Carolina, then rallied back from 11 down to win by 4 in last minute. Arkansas is 3-5 as home favorites, winning last six home games by 2-5-20-20-15-6 points. These teams are playing fastest tempo games in SEC.

Georgia State/Georgia Southern are tied at top of Sun Belt; winner here is #1 seed in conference tourney. Southern (+1.5) had 19-9 edge on the line, beat State 58-54 at home Feb 5, despite shooting 9-30 inside arc, 7-26 on arc, 19-29 on foul line (State was 5-9) in game Panthers led by nine with 11:36 left. Eagles won five of last seven games, are 3-0 as road dogs. State is 10-2 in last 12 games, winning last six home games-- they're 2-4-1 as a home favorite.

Villanova (-4) won 90-72 at St John's Jan 6, making 10-23 in game that was tied at half- they scored 1.3 ppp, very high. That loss made Johnnies 0-3 in Big East; they're rallied to get to 10-7. Red Storm won four in row, seven of last eight games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs, losing on road by 11-4-3-23-22 points (3-5 SU). Villanova is playing for #1 seed in NCAA tournament; Wildcats won last 11 games, haven't lost since Jan 19; they are 7-1 as home favorites.

Kansas (-5) beat Oklahoma 85-78 at home Jan 19, blowing 20-point lead (was 51-32 at half), then rallying from 4 down with 4:56 left. Ellis won't play in this game after getting hurt vs West Virginia. Jayhawks hit 10-19 from arc in first OU game; they've lost three of last four on road, with win by 22 at Texas Tech. Sooners won eight of last ten games, winning last six at home; they're 5-3 as home favorites, but lost last game at Iowa State after leading by 19 at half.

Virginia won't have Anderson (appendix) back here; they won first game with Louisville 52-47 (-7) at home Feb 7, in brickfest where teams made 5-28 from arc- Cardinals didn't score in last 10:00 of first half. Cavaliers already have #1 seed in ACC tourney wrapped up- they allowed 55.6 ppg in last five games, bad news for Louisville team that tossed its point guiard few weeks ago. Cardinals split last eight games, losing last three games against top 50 opponents.

Duke won its last ten games, one of which was 92-90 OT win over UNC Feb 18, when Tar Heels led by 10 with 3:17 left. Duke was 10-16 on arc, 16-31 on line in that game; they held Paige to 5 points. Blue Devils won last five on road, but last four were vs non-tourney teams. Carolina is 4-5 in last nine games, but won three of last four (GT twice, Miami); they've lost two of last three home games. North Carolina hasn't beaten a top 50 team since Jan 14 vs NC State (0-4).

Colorado State won six of last seven games, winning last four against the worst teams in Mountain West; Rams are 4-4 on Mountain West road, winning last two away games, at Nevada/Fresno. Its last home game for popular/retiring Utah State coach Morrill, whose Aggies won six of last seven games, winning last three at home by 13-6-18 points. Aggies were 3-0 vs Colorado State LY, beating them by 7-9-4 points, including win in Mountain West tournament.

Cal-Davis clinched its first-ever Big West regular season title Thursday; it is Senior Night for star guard Hawkins, who didn't play when Aggies got 75-56 win (+11) at Irvine Feb 5-- Aggies were 7-10 on arc that night, are 3-1-1 as home favorites, last six home wins by 7 or less points. Irvine is 4-1 in last five games but lost two of last three on road; Anteaters are lot healthier than they've been but have weird team- the big guys slow down their talented parimeter players.

MVC tournament, St Louis
Wichita State won this tourney LY after being 11-11 in this event the 11 years before that; Shockers swept Illinois State this year, winning 70-62 at home (-11) Jan 4, then 68-62 (-4) in Normal Feb 14, so neither was an easy win. Wichita covered seven of its last nine games. Illinois State won last night after being down six at half. Redbirds won their last five games, last two by total of six points. Shockers' only loss in 2015 was Jan 31 at Northern Iowa- they've won last nine games.

Loyola won its last four games, covered seven of last eight; they're 6-1-1 in last eight games as an underdog. Doyle is back for Loyola after missing 11 games- he played 21:00 last night in his second game back from injury. Wasn't much stress for either side Friday, so fatigue shouldn't be factor here. Ramblers lost 67-58 (+11) at Northern Iowa Jan 4, then again at home to Panthers 58-39 (+8) Feb 18. UNI won 17 of its last 18 games; losing only at Wichita last Saturday;

Ohio Valley tournament, Nashville
Over last nine years, Belmont is 21-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins played last two nights, rallying back from down 7 with 12:27 left last night. Belmont won its last six games, covered last five. Murray beat Belmont 92-77 (-7.5) Jan 15 in only meeting this year. Racers are 17-0 in OVC this year, had to come back from down 11 in last 6:31 last night. Lot of pressure on Murray- they are not getting into NCAAs unless they win this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 8:40 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$7000 - N/W $10000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 SUPERBOWL SUNSHINE 8/5


# 6 WAITING ON NO ONE 7/1


# 9 GLOBALLY LINDY 5/1


SUPERBOWL SUNSHINE will not be denied the win here. She's racing in good form, recording formidable speed ratings. An excellent pick. Reason to like this filly as she has in the cart one of the best drivers in win percentage the last 30 days. WAITING ON NO ONE - Might be there at a nice price tag. Most likely one to keep in your exotics. GLOBALLY LINDY - Certainly should be given a look based on the really good TrackMaster SR earned in the last outing. Henry has been able to get this race horse to perform when sending to the post. Definite exotic possibilities.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 9:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$20000 - 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $80,000 LIFETIME. AE: NW 2 RACES IN 2014-2015.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 MAJOR TRICK 3/1


# 3 URBANA BAYAMA 5/2


# 7 B EVAS LUCKY LAD 10/1


We've got a gut feel MAJOR TRICK is going to get the win. This trainer, and the driver Macdonald, go together like gin and tonic. Their results together are excellent. Macdonald has been able to get this contender to perform when in the sulky. Definite exotic possibilities. URBANA BAYAMA - Could very well provide us a ultimate prize based on competitive recent TrackMaster SRs - earning an avg of 88. Could dominate this pack, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 89 - from his most recent affair. B EVAS LUCKY LAD - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win figure. Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 59

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 WAR OF HONOR 7/2


# 1 PITTSBURGH PHIL 5/2


# 12 BEMOIS 12/1


My selection in this event is WAR OF HONOR. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look decent in this competition. The average Equibase class figure of 63 makes this one tough to beat. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figs (60 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. PITTSBURGH PHIL - He has to be carefully examined given the decent speed figures. Looks very strong to be up near the front end at the first call. BEMOIS - Ran a strong last race. Last time out, this gelding was up against a tougher bunch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Trial - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 TEMPTING ROSE 9/2


# 5 CARTEL JR 10/1


# 7 AMERICAN PYC 8/1


TEMPTING ROSE looks to be a decent contender. Ought to be worth a wager based on the sire's (Tempting Dash) offspring solid win rate - 19 percent. This trainer has produced entrants that have consistently produced quite good board hit percentages in their first race. CARTEL JR - Ought to be given consideration against this group based solely on pedigree figs. Gonzalez has a reliable winning percentage of 24 in baby races. Can't overlook the connections here, a 18 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. AMERICAN PYC - Has sound trainer figs (Willis wins 30 percent of the time with 2yolds) to back up this betting selection. I can't pass on this filly given one of the strongest rider and conditioner combos on the grounds. When this jockey and handler team up, bettors often make money.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:22pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 ELUSIVE CAMILLA (ML=5/1)
#2 BRIDGET T (ML=8/1)


ELUSIVE CAMILLA - I expect this race horse to stun some handicappers this time. BRIDGET T - I am keen on that last effort on February 7th at Charles Town where she finished second. I like this thoroughbred. Finished in front of today's morning-line favorite last out at Charles Town, and I think she will do well versus this field today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 STORED ATTAQ (ML=5/2), #8 LOVE IS LOVE (ML=7/2), #4 KISS ON COMMAND (ML=9/2),

STORED ATTAQ - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. This questionable contender's record tells you not to bet on her as the public's choice. LOVE IS LOVE - You think this horse is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. Finished third in her most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. KISS ON COMMAND - Finished fifth last time. Would have to advance to be there at the wire in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #6 ELUSIVE CAMILLA on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 42

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 PISTOLANNIE (ML=4/1)


PISTOLANNIE - Faced tougher last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this one on my list of strong contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SOMETHIN SOMETHIN (ML=6/5), #3 RAISE A LITTLE FUN (ML=7/2), #1 PRIZE PATROL (ML=9/2),

SOMETHIN SOMETHIN - This chalk horse hasn't motored around the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. Tough to put any money on this filly on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though. RAISE A LITTLE FUN - Not easy to play any questionable contender in a short distance contest if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. This thoroughbred hasn't shown very much in the last two events. Notched a mediocre fig last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on January 21st. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. PRIZE PATROL - Awfully difficult to play this entrant when she hasn't been showing any gumption recently.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PISTOLANNIE - Getting Lasix for the second time. While getting my masters at grad school I did a lot of research on this, and my data proves fillys run much better the 2nd time. Well worth a shot.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 PISTOLANNIE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

Spring is not here officially for a few more weeks, and I know some of you are still thawing out from yet another winter storm, but it sure feels like winter is over after handicapping all the big races we have on tap this afternoon.

We have three Derby points races, major Derby contender Daredevil makes his three-year-old debut in the $200,000 Swale (G2) and Shared Belief is in action as the huge favorite in the $1 million Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

Among the Derby hopefuls in action today are Dortmund and Carpe Diem, the two lowest prices in Kentucky Derby future wagering.

Dortmund is the 8-5 morning line favorite for the $400,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. The Bob Baffert trainee is the 11-2 betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

The second choice in Derby future betting is Carpe Diem at 8-1. He makes his three-year-old debut in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and is the 8-5 morning line favorite.

Ocean Knight is the fifth choice in early Derby wagering at 15-1 and he takes on Carpe Diem as the 2-1 second choice in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Others that are top Derby contenders in action today include El Kabeir (26-1), Prospect Park (28-1), Ocho Ocho Ocho (30-1), Lord Nelson (33-1) and Bolo (45-1).

Off the Derby trail is the undefeated Khozan, who was the 15-1 fifth choice in early Derby wagering. The colt was being pointed toward the $1 million Florida Derby (G1), but his connections announced yesterday he is having issues with his right hind ankle.


Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500 (12:50 ET)
1 Maximus Mike 4-1
4 Summit County 5-1
3 Poliziano 5-2
7 Springcourt 3-1

Analysis: Maximus Mike came with a six wide rally and despite getting herded out inside the final furlong and bumping a foe got up late to beat $12,500 non-winners of three by a neck. He has won 2 of 3 since the Gullo barn claimed this guy for $25,000 and now faces open company. The barn has been very live at the meeting, hitting at a 31% clip and the gelding looks headed in the right direction. Looks capable of winning right back facing a bit tougher.

Summit County is coming off a third last out at this level where he stalked the early pace and did not have any punch left late. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the RRod barn and his brother is named trainer while he takes a "vacation" for a drug positive. He gets an upgrade in jocks and barn and would not be surprised to see this guy move forward.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 9 The Gotham G3 (4:50 ET)
8 Tencendor 8-1
4 El Kabeir 8-5
3 Classy Class 7-2
1 Dontbetwithbruno / 1a Uninfluenced / 1x Blame Jim 5-1

Analysis: Tencendur is one of three in here exiting the Withers (G3). The colt was making his first start against winners after breaking his maiden against state breds and was overlooked on the tote at 30-1. He stalked the early pace while wide much of the trip and finished evenly in a fourth place finish. The racing strip that day was kind to inside speed. The George Weaver trainee has moved forward with each start and his last outing was his first over a fast track. Blinkers go on and he sports a couple of bullet works on the morning tab since his last outing. He is a half to stakes winner Mother Russia ($528,966). The colt will need another move forward, but figures to be a generous price in this spot.

El Kabeir dueled for the early lead and was no match for Far From Away in deep stretch, the winner getting off poorly and spotting the field five or six lengths and then coming up the rail for the win. The John Terranova trainee came into the race off wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Jerome (G3) and sent off as the chalk last out. I have a hunch today the strategy may be to try and lay off the pace and not get mixed up early with Classy Class again. If that happens, he should get a good tracking trip just off the pace. Despite the loss last out his speed, figs have been consistent over the last three starts. That makes him a player here but if that is his top, he is going to have trouble competing on the first Saturday of May.

Classy Class battled for the early lead in the Withers and weakened inside the final furlong to finish third, beaten a length by El Kabeir for the runner up spot. He made two starts last year, breaking his maiden in his debut and dueling for the early lead and weakening to finish fourth in the Remsen (G3) going nine furlongs on the main track here. In the Remsen, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee pressed the early pace from the three path on a day the inner paths and speed was strong. Her makes his second start off a 2 ½ month break and still may have some upside.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,5,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 6 The Swale G2 (3:00 ET)
4 Ready for Rye 9-2
1 Daredevil 4-5
3 X Y Jet 4-1
8 Bluegrass Singer 8-1

Analysis: Ready for Rye looks as if he may get overlooked in the betting here. The gelding is coming off a good effort in the Spectacular Bid here going six furlongs where he prompted the early pace, took over the lead in the stretch and could not hold off the winner late, beaten three lengths for the top spot as the 6-5 chalk. The winner was Barbados, who returned to win the Hutcheson (G3) in his next start on Jan. 14. The third place finisher was It’s Not Me, who came back to win the Ocala Sprint in his next outing on Jan. 27. Two back our top pick broke his maiden in his second career start by seven lengths and the effort was flattered when three he beat that day returned to graduate in their next starts. The gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers and just a matter of if he can avoid an early pace duel and handle the extra furlong. Javier Castellano rode this guy in all three starts but sticks with the chalk in here. He has a win over a wet track and is bred to like it, and there is a 40% chance of showers.

Daredevil makes his three-year-old debut here for the Todd Pletcher barn and this guy is using this race as a prep to get on to the Derby trail. Last year he won his first two career starts including picking up 10 Derby points winning the Champagne (G1) in the slop in his first start against winners, earning a 107 Beyer. The runner up in that race was Upstart, who won the Holy Bull (G2) and crossed the wire in front in the Fountain of Youth (G2) only to get disqualified for interference in the stretch. The Pletcher barn is 24% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The rail draw and the short price are the main knocks. The colt is perfect in two trips over a wet track and the forecast should not be a concern. He is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Albertus Maximus ($1.3 million).

X Y Jet set the early fractions and battle don gamely in the stretch in the Hutcheson, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The gelding was 7 ½ lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. The gelding has now landed in the place spot five times in his eight career starts. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the outside draw might work to his benefit here as there is some speed to his inside. It took him five tries to break his maiden but has moved forward since landing with the Jorge Navarro barn.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,6,8


Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 10 The Frank E. Kilroe Mile G1 (4:38 PT)
8 Summer Front 7-2
9 Home Run Kitten 8-1
11 Za Approval 6-1
3 Winning Prize 4-1

Analysis: Summer Front makes his first start since the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) where the Clement trainee made a good late run to finish fourth, beaten two lengths for the top spot. That outing was coming back off a 3 1/2 month break. Two back in the Eddie Reed (G1) at Del Mar he came with a four wide bid and was beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot by Tom's Tribute, who returned to Del Mar Mile (G2) in his next outing. He ran well over the turf here last year in a runner up finish to Obviously in the Shoemaker Mile (G1). Clement knows how to have them ready to go off the bench.

Home Run Kitten makes his third start of his current form cycle and is coming off a decent effort in a third in the Arcadia (G2). Two back in the Mathis Brothers Mile (G2) he was beaten just a neck by Alert Bay, who won the Cal Cup Turf Classic in his next outing on Jan. 24. The colt has done his best work over the turf here and will need to step his game up a length or two to be a major threat here, but worth tossing in the mix if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,8,9,11
TRI: 8,9 / 3,8,9,11 / 3,8,9,10,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #10 Stalagmite 8-1
R4: #2 West Hills Giant 12-1
R5: #2 Spring Brook 8-1
R6: #7 Here’s Zealous 8-1
R7: #7 Memory Keeper 12-1
R8: #2 Unrepented 8-1
R9: #8 Tencendor 8-1
R10: #5 Mr Rico Is Valid 8-1
R10: #3 Warm Front 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Triple Crown trail heats up
By Anthony Stabile

Anthony's Eleven (3/6/15)

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Anthony's Eleven (3/6/15)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Ocean Knight Irad Ortiz, Jr. Kiaran McLaughlin Tampa Bay Derby (3/7 at TB) 0
2 War Story Kent Desormeaux Tom Amoss Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 24
3 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
4 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert San Felipe (3/7 at SA) 20
5 Frammento John Velazquez Nick Zito Undecided 10
6 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Wood Memorial (4/4 at AQU) 36
7 Imperia Mike Smith Kiaran McLaughlin Spiral (3/21 at Turfway) 4
8 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 71
9 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Sunland Derby (3/22 at SP) 8
10 Frosted Irad Ortiz, Jr. Kiaran McLaughlin (Undecided) 13
11 Classy Class Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin (Gotham (3/7 at AQU) 3


Three preps worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner along with the return of last years’ G1 Champagne winner highlight an action packed weekend on the Triple Crown trail. Let’s get right to it.

The action starts at Aqueduct, where El Kabeir will lead a field of 10 in the G3 Gotham going 1 1/16 miles over the inner track.

Trained by John Terranova III, El Kabeir is already a multiple graded stakes winner having taken the G2 KJC at Churchill at the end of his five race juvenile campaign in gate-to-wire fashion before coming from just off the pace to capture the G3 Jerome over this course to start his sophomore season.

Ridden by C.C. Lopez for the first time that day, it’s my opinion that Lopez cost him the victory in the G3 Withers last out. Sent off as the 1-2 prohibitive favorite, El Kabeir was put into a speed duel down the backstretch and was unable to hold off Far From Over in the final stages. Many, including myself, thought Lopez would be replaced by a more high profile rider but that wasn’t the case as Lopez will be back aboard from post 4.

Classy Class was on the front end by himself in the Withers before El Kabeir came calling earlier than he should have. In his first start off of a 10 week layoff, Classy Class dug in before reluctantly giving way in deep stretch to finish third for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Last year, Classy Class broke his maiden in his debut before finishing fourth in the G2 Remsen where he chased the pace from an outside post over an inside, speed biased race course. Junior Alvarado rides for the first time from post 3.

Todd Pletcher, the trainer of Withers winner Far From Over who is skipping this to await the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on 4/4, will send out three in the Gotham for one of his main owners, Mike Repole, led by the highly regarded Blame Jim.

Blame Jim turned heads with an impressive debut tally up at Saratoga last summer but headed to the sidelines soon after before resurfacing in an allowance contest at Gulfstream last month. The even money favorite that day, the Pletcher trained Stanford was able to stave this guy off to win by 1 ½ lengths, though Blame Jim was five lengths clear of the rest of the pack. Leading rider Jose Ortiz has the call from post 10.

Dontbetwithbruno lost by a neck two starts back in his second try before breaking his maiden with a gutsy effort by a nose last out. Manny Franco has the call from post 2. The maiden Uninfluenced coughed up a 2 length lead in the mud last out to miss by a neck in the second start of his career. Fernando Jara has the call from post 8.

Lieutenant Colonel ships up from Gulfstream for trainer Chad Brown off of a debut score in which he virtually led every step of the way at a robust 10-1. Kendrick Carmouche rides from post 5. It’s worth noting that this jockey/trainer combo has hit at a whopping 58% over the past 15 months.


Tencendur was fourth in the Withers and adds blinkers for trainer George Weaver. Tencendur broke his maiden against New York breds in his second start two back. Cornelio Velasquez rides from post 9. Combat Diver missed by a nose in the Miracle Wood at Laurel last out, his first start since an abysmal effort in the Remsen. Sheldon Russell retains the mount for Gary Contessa. They’ll break from the rail.

Tiz Shea D easily disposed of a field of maidens at Parx in his debut in a sprint before being moved into the barn of Bill Mott. He’ll break from post 6 with Taylor Rice. Toasting Master won two in a row last November before finishing off the board in the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream and fourth in a minor stakes at Ocala Training Center over the Polytrack in his latest. Angel Arroyo rides from post 7 for Dale Romans.

Pletcher and McLaughlin runners figure to take the bulk of the action in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby going 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs as G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Carpe Diem returns for his first start of the year to take on the undefeated Ocean Knight.

Carpe Diem wowed in his Spa sprint debut before stretching out to take the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland around two turns by daylight. Then in the Breeders’ Cup, Carpe Diem had an interesting trip. He was further back than usual and at one point appeared as if he was stopping before he rallied to get the place money behind runaway winner Texas Red. Regular rider John Velazquez has the call from post 3.

Ocean Knight broke his maiden in his debut by over 4 lengths over the Aqueduct inner track while in hand back in December in a sprint before an impressive effort in the G3 Sam F. Davis over this course last out. He was drawn in post 11, didn’t save an inch of ground yet still managed to rally through the stretch to win by a neck in just the second start of his promising career. Irad Ortiz, Jr. returns from post 2.

Divining Rod gave Ocean Knight all he could handle at 28-1 in the Davis last out before settling for second when first time Lasix. Unfortunately, he’ll add a bar shoe for Arnaud Delacour this, usually a sign that something is amiss, but does get to use his speed from his rail draw with rider Luis Garcia.

My Johnny Be Good tired to third after pressing Divining Rod through the early running in his second start off of a two month layoff. Trained by Eoin Harty, My Johnny Be Good won an allowance contest by over 14 lengths two starts back over this course with leading rider Antonio Gallardo. They’ll break from post 5. Fourth in the Davis, Ami’s Flatter will add blinkers and Lasix for his third start off of a layoff for trainer Josie Carroll. Regular rider Luis Contreras rides from post 4.

Trainer Mark Casse will send out the pair of Moonlight Bandit and Danzig Moon from posts 7 and 8, respectively. Moonlight Bandit was one for three as a juvenile and returned from a layoff to run third in an allowance/optional claimer on turf at Gulfstream. Jose Lezcano rides. Danzig Moon returned from a three month layoff to roll home to a convincing maiden win in the third start of his career under a returning Julien Leparoux.

Maiden longshot Great Stuff rounds out the field for Ian Wilkes. He’s rallied from well back to hit the board in all three of his starts and this will be his first around two turns. Leandro Goncalves rides from post 6. Souper Colossal will scratch after spiking a temperature earlier in the week, according to trainer Eddie Plesa, Jr.

Out in California, trainer Bob Baffert holds a strong hand in the G2 San Felipe going 1 1/16 miles but by no means does he have a strangle hold on the field of 10.

Still, I doubt he’d change places with anyone as he’ll saddle Lord Nelson and the pro-tem leader of the three-year-old contingent in California, Dortmund.

Perfect in four starts, Dortmund has shown ability, and perhaps more importantly, determination, well beyond the experience of just four races. In his last pair, the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity and G3 Robert Lewis, he’s gotten himself involved in dogfights with some pretty tough customers, namely Firing Line and Mr. Z, and has obviously come out on top.

He made me a believer in the Lewis. Apparently beaten and the top of the stretch, as Firing Line was at least a length to the good of him, Dortmund battled back, along the rail no less, and refused to lose, winning by a head under regular rider Martin Garcia.

Baffert originally planned to pass on this and wait to run in the G1 Santa Anita Derby on 4/4 but Dortmund has rebounded and training so well that he decided to enter here. He’ll break from post 3.

Lord Nelson overcame a poor start to get up in the nick of time in the G2 San Vicente last out under Rafael Bejarano who’ll ride again from the rail. Lord Nelson will have to prove he’s not just a one turn horse in here. Though a perfect three for three sprinting, he’s finished off the board in both of his two turn starts.

Ocho Ocho Ocho will look to keep his perfect record intact in his first start since adding the G3 Delta Jackpot to his resume last November for trainer Jim Cassidy. After starting his career with a pair of sprint scores over this course, Cassidy shipped his charge to the bayou where he overcame outside post 10 to score a nose victory over a determined Mr. Z at Delta Downs. Mike Smith, who rode last out for the first time, returns from post 2.

Smith decided to ride Ocho Ocho Ocho despite the fact that he has ridden the talented Bolo in all three of his career starts, all of which have come on turf. After an off the board debut finish, Bolo rattled off two in a row, including an eye-catching thrashing of 10 rivals in the Eddie Logan when he was last seen in late December for Carla Gaines. If he can transfer his turf form to the dirt, look out. Victor Espinoza rides from post 7.

Prospect Park will look to run his win streak to three as he steps up into stakes company for the first time for trainer Clifford Sise, Jr. Two starts back, Prospect Park shed blinkers to break his maiden in start number four before romping home against allowance foes despite some traffic on the turn in his latest. He’ll break from post 6 under Kent Desormeaux.

Sir Samson sheds blinkers for his first start around two turns as trainer Brian Koriner seeks his first win at the Santa Anita meet. Sir Samson was third at big odds in the San Vicente last under Joe Talamo who returns from post 8. The Gomper broke his maiden in his debut at 16-1 then burned a ton of money in his two subsequent starts at odds of 4-5 and 1-2, respectively for trainer Ron Ellis. Tyler Baze rides from post 4.

Pulmarack makes his first start against open company after breaking his maiden and finishing second in a pair of California bred stakes in his last three starts. Drayden Van Dyke rides for Jerry Hollendorfer from post 8. Pain and Misery is a perfect two for two on conventional dirt and finished second in a minor turf stakes last out in what was his first start for trainer Richard Mandella. Flavien Prat rides from post 10. The maiden Kenjisstorm makes his first start for trainer George Papaprodromou with Agapito Delgadillo from post 5.

Finally, at Gulfstream, Daredevil returns for Pletcher in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs. Before a dismal effort in the Juvenile when last seen over four months ago, Daredevil rolled home to a maiden score and easier-than-it-seemed tally in the Champagne. Javier Castellano rides from the rail against a field of six rivals.

Prep Play of the Day

Three plays this week. In the Gotham, bet $25 to win on Classy Class who deserves another chance. At Tampa, bet $50 to win on Ocean Knight. In the San Felipe, play a $25 exacta Dortmund over Bolo. Total is $100.

Good luck!!!

Bankroll: $50

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 3/7 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (7 - 11 / $27.00): WINGS (2nd)

Spot Play: REJOICEANDBEGLAD (6th)


Race 1

(7) CONTROL TOWER sophomore pacer comes off a nice qualifier and has a lot of upside. (1) RED HOT ART gets the best post and has shown a decent burst of speed. (2) LOVE YOU BAD lightly raced pacer probably needs a start but could hit the ticket underneath.

Race 2

(7) WINGS mare is on a huge roll and looks unstoppable; short price. (3) STATE STREET LIZ was roughed up last out but looks to be on the lead or in the pocket; fires early. (4) FEEL LIKE DANCING gets sent out for a red hot barn and should offer a big price.

Race 3

(6) CRANKIN' IT UP just missed at this level last out and had nowhere to go late. (4) BIG BRAD five-year-old stallion takes a significant drop in class but has lacked stamina late in the mile; command a price. (2) HOLY CHIP gelding burned money last out at this level and needs a smooth trip.

Race 4

In a really tough race to gauge (7) JACKSON BERLOW had no shot last out but has shown the ability to compete at this level. (6) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY couldn't parlay a perfect trip last week but has been competitive against better. (4) ADAMS HANOVER made a break leaving last start trying for the lead. The pacer has good gate speed and could be in line for a much better trip.

Race 5

In a field with few contenders (1) JOVANNA comes into the race off a victory against this same bunch and has been sharp. (5) SOFT VELVET has been close at this level and should offer value. (2) BABYSHOEBUYER has just been racing evenly but is capable of a big effort from time to time.

Race 6

(7) REJOICEANDBEGLAD gelding got trapped with nowhere to pace until late in the mile last out; threat. (3) SKYWAY BILLY three-year-old pacer faces older but needed his last start and should show improvement. (4) SKYWAY BRENLIN picks up a positive driver change and has been racing gamely.

Race 7

In a wide open race (4) MAJOR MONET owns back class and just needs a trouble-free trip to score. (7) ALEQUASH HOTSPUR the driver opted elsewhere but the pacer has been on sharp; fires late. (3) WASHINGTON HANOVER drops back down and is capable of a good effort.

Race 8

(4) HOT STREAK HANOVER got picked off late last out but did show a big move. (3) MAJOR MALE takes a huge drop in competition in for a tag. The pacer has a good history of winning at this level. (8) SVAYA KNOWS gets sent out for connections capable of producing a big effort.

Race 9

(6) IAM BONASERA benefits from the outside post and should get the right type of setup to unleash late. (3) ICE SCRAPER veteran pacer will be blazing away off the gate; vulnerable late. (1) BEST MAN HANOVER has been very inconsistent from week to week. The gelding can pop at anytime but and is one of few threats in the race with an aggressive drive.

Race 10

(1) CAMWISER was much the best last out and will be tough with a similar effort even moving up a level; driver's choice. (9) WILDCAT BOBBY the driver opted to the top choice however the pacer has been racing gamely. (8) CRIME OF PASSION gelding gets sent out for capable connections but is probably best used underneath.

Race 11

(8) SHIFTTANEXTGEAR picks up a good driver change and has flashed ability in a week field. (2) BINGO PRINCE gelding went a sneaky good effort last out but needs a good drive from a provisional pilot. (3) JUST DO IT JESSE has been slowly improving and should hit the ticket with a trouble free trip.

Race 12

(4) BEACHSIDE BUNGALOW got caught inside or would have been right there on the wire last out. (9) ITS A BIG SECRET paced away from the field impressively last out; short price. (2) LITTLE HANK takes a big drop in competition; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

1,3,8/6,10/3/1,3,6,10 = $24

MEET STATS: 85 - 260 / $458.70 BEST BETS: 11 - 25 / $50.00

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 24 / $54.10

Best Bet: URBANA BAYAMA (6th)

Spot Play: AMERICAN GI (4th)


Race 1

(3) THUNDER STEELER has returned to action razor-sharp and although these are much tougher, he may be up to it at a better price. (6) ALEXIE MATTOSIE took plenty of action in his return and came up just short. He can be a big threat here. (4) SPINFINITI was 9 lengths back at the wire last week but that was to 1:50 winner Sparky Mark who competes in the Open tonight. He should be vaulting past most of these late for a share.

Race 2

(6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER isn't the most reliably gaited horse on the grounds but last week couldn't have been more impressive visually when rolling by the field late while under no urging at all; call to repeat. (7) BOURBON BAY has been perfect since arriving in town in early February and is the obvious one to beat although his final quarters indicate that initial loss may be coming soon. (3) ESCUELA was sitting behind some bad cover last week but kept grinding for a share. He should be thereabouts again here.

Race 3

(3) CAMVICTED will likely be pointed right to the front in the opening leg of this series which is where many of those dashes are won from; top call. (7) DIALAMARA came up just short in the final of the Count B series, beating the choice in the process. He is the main danger. (5) HALTON HURRICANE showed some good late pace in his first start of the year and should improve off that 4th-place effort.

Race 4

(1) AMERICAN GI was too far back on bad cover to make an impact against a very sharp winner last time out. Tonight he gets a much better trip and result from the rail; top call and Spot Play. (8) SMARTER YET closed rapidly in the lane in the same dash and could threaten here at a square price. (3) MCKINNEY has been very conservatively driven from outer posts the past two but moves inside and likely leaves hard here; using.

Race 5

(9) FEARLESS MAN looks invincible right now in the form he is in, even from the 10-hole; top call but will likely be an underlay. (5) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY had a productive 2014 campaign and returned in good form, finishing quickly to finish third to the choice. He stands a chance to upset if he can land in the choice's pocket at the start. (7) BURNIN MONEY got hung the mile last week but had been in great form previously. He can rebound here.

Race 6

(3) URBANA BAYAMA missed a month's racing and returned with a big win showing speed early and late in the mile. He'll be tough to beat here. (2) MAJOR TRICK stayed in and ran into traffic problems when 4th to the choice. He is likely to be closer here and could upset with the right trip. (8) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN motored up late from far back to nail 2nd in the same dash. He should share again here.

Race 7

The classy mare (6) BAX OF LIFE makes her season's debut and might be able to click right away vs. this group. (1) POWER MOVE was perfect racing out of the Moreau barn, then claimed, now faces better; tough call. (3) HOUSE OF CASH is always around the edges and is a good one to use on the bottoms of tri and super wagers.

Race 8

(2) HOPE FOR PADDY keeps showing signs she is ready to produce a better result. The class drop here should help. Look for Zeron to be on the move much earlier; top call. (7) EAT ME UP continues to race well enough to get shares but rarely wins which is likely to be the case here again. (3) RUB N TUG has really stepped up her game this winter and figures to be prominent throughout once again.

Race 9

(4) SPARKY MARK exploded with a 1:50 mile last week meriting the move up to the top class. The classy veteran is as good as he's ever been it seems which might spell trouble for group. (2) NICKLE BAG has been the king of the castle at Woodbine this winter and is as tough as they come; respect. (8) AVATARTIST was much the best last week but taken down due to a driver error early in the mile. He's on top of his game right now but the 8-hole may be his undoing here.

Race 10

(2) JOSHUA MY BOY had the misfortune of landing in Sparky Mark's race last week but although 8th wasn't beaten that far for a minor share; these are easier. (1) HIT AND GIGGLE A exits the Moreau barn after a nice run and is the one to beat although there is no way he gets gifted a 58 here like he did last week. (3) TOPCORNERTERROR couldn't close into a rapid late pace last week but should be passing many of these late to hit the ticket.

Race 11

(8) INCOGNITO has shown progressive improvement in his last two starts and although he moves up in class and to an outer post he could take these at a price. (1) CURATOR's comeback race was excellent as he was closing hard into an accelerating late pace. He is the danger. (3) GOLDSTAR BADLANDS stayed in and rallied for 2nd behind a very sharp winner. He is likely to keep covered up and come late for a piece again here. (5) KANBEC KINGKAZIMIR made two moves and was only overtaken very late. He should be prominent up near the pace again and stick around for a slice. (9) TOUCH OF LIGHTNING never misses the board in this class and is always a price. Keep him on your tickets!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 3/7 Analysis
By Jay Bergman

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: WIGGLE IT JIGGLE IT (2nd)

Spot Play: SASSY HANOVER (4th)


Race 1

(3) COUSIN BRUCIE was a bit green behind the starting gate when another horse got into his path. Without a recall he never recovered. Well-bred gelding draws better and is worth a price. (7) SHADOW RECRUIT quickly returns to the non-winners category after running into a buzzsaw in the Gilmour. Burke-trainee has the speed. (4) L DEES JAGUAR returns to the big track and is in softer company.

Race 2

(2) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT appears a bit too far advanced for this short field. Montrell Teague-driven gelding has a world of speed and should line these up. (5) NATIONAL SEELSTER is probably going to have to outsprint the rest for the place spot. Unbeaten colt needs to be asked to go forward but has finished willingly in all of his starts to date. (3) REDNECKYACHTCLUB is placed for a piece.

Race 3

(2) CORKY BARAN had to make a premature three wide sprint from the back because of a dull flow and flattened out in midstretch as could be expected. Veteran has enough class to get it done. (3) DIAMOND SAID changes hands for the second straight time but has maintained his edge and is the one to beat. (4) BREAKIN THE LAW has been slow to find his form for new connections but should come to life with the improved draw.

Race 4

(4) SASSY HANOVER tried to leave last week but so did half the field and he had to take back. Four-year-old is deceptively sharp and draws a good spot for the upset. (8) LORD OF MISRULE returns after a speed tightener earlier this week at Yonkers and may be able to overcome the post. (7) LETS FOAL AROUND is a rapidly improving four-year-old that is gaining confidence with each start.

Race 5

They probably should have dubbed this mini-late closer the (1) LONEWOLF CURRIER dash for the G notes. Five-year-old with sub-1:49 speed will try to duplicate his effort of a week ago laying off the pace as best as possible and sprinting when necessary. (10) BRICK BAZOOKA got a little steppy on the final turn in his first start for Burke. Four-year-old may try to get away better here. (6) BULLET BOB had some tough racing luck last week and lost contact with the winner because of it. Classy six-year-old is dangerous.

Race 6

(1) PANCHESTER UNITED went a big trip in his first start for Burke and should only improve the second time around. (2) HUNCHIE flashed solid pace from well back versus similar. Veteran finds an improved spot. (9) J M JET SET may not be the type that can cut out a mile and win; trip tells the story here.

Race 7

(9) ODDS ON EQUULEUS qualified back superbly for Alagna. Five-year-old can leave a little for position and outkick this well-matched group. (6) ROCKIN WIZARD returns to the big track where he appears to be a better horse. (5) SIR MELOS Z TAM has come to hand and was Callahan's pick.

Race 8

(3) IDEAL MAGIC is another one of those horses that appear to give ground when leading into the stretch. Four-year-old has some talent and may be following ideal cover tonight. (6) WINDSONG GORGEOUS is likely to try leaving the gate this week after last week's disastrous opening quarter. (2) CAPOZZO remains at the level of his last score but could be heading up without cover again.

Race 9

(6) SEEK THE DRAGON returns to claimers at a much-reduced level. Ford-trained son of Dragon Again should get involved early here. (2) EXPLODENT showed a good deal of class turning away a solid threat in his victory last out; steps up but remains a definitive factor. (3) CANE RIDGE may have been off for 35 days but he's always been a winner and can't be overlooked here.

Race 10

(3) COLBY JATE takes a significant drop in company coming back from Yonkers. Watson trainee had some tough post position luck last time around these parts and may appreciate the draw and competition tonight. (6) HOKURI HANDRAIL N has been covering a lot of extra ground for trainer Shaun Vallee over the last few weeks. Import picks up live hands in here and is likely to attract plenty of tote action. (4) KEEP GOING has done some nice shedding of earnings at Freehold and may be sitting on a big mile.

Race 11

(1) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING has started to show some talent with a catch-driver and the addition of Lasix. Camluck-sired colt draws perfectly in the weaker of the two Gilmour divisions. (6) COASTER tried to blast from the gate last week and rolled into a break. Rock N Roll Heaven-sired gelding showed some ability in his prior starts. (5) RODEO ROMEO powered home sharply in just his third lifetime start and could have a future.

Race 12

(6) OK GORGEOUS went a very game mile in his third local start. Rocknroll Hanover-sired gelding will definitely benefit with that race under his belt. (1) EL BLOOMBITO also should be expected to show some improvement now that trainer Toscano got her wish and has him racing just against four-year-old competition. (3) BETTOR BELIEVE IT had no chance trying to close into a quick final half at Yonkers and may appreciate the return to the big track.

Race 13

(8) PENN TURBO TED is likely to take plenty of tote action given the claim and the move to a catch-driver. Twelve-year-old has 42 lifetime wins and many of them over this surface. (6) JIN DANDY conversely is trying to come off a very long winner's circle dry spell. Seven-year-old missed by a nose two back. (2) TAKE THE EDGE OFF finds a good spot and could land on the board.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 3/7 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 58 - 178 / $289.30 BEST BETS: 8 - 15 / $28.20

Best Bet: HEEZ ORL BLACK N (11th)

Spot Play: SHADY CITY (3rd)


Race 1

(3) LAST DRAGON finally gets a break at the post draw and the Laterza trainee could have more to offer. (6) LAWGIVER HANOVER flashed willing late pace last week from an impossible spot. (2) CHEYENNE JEFFREY has proven that he can fit with this type and he can be considered from this inside post.

Race 2

(2) REAL NICE has been feeling real nice lately and he drops to the level of his win two back. (1) OUR DRAGON KICK has to get a better trip than last week...if so he'll be a big threat. (5) SAWBUCK HANOVER has some early speed and may be hustled off the gate.

Race 3

(4) SHADY CITY was out a long way in his latest and he held very gamely for second; Team Stalbaum trainee is ready to pop. (2) HARD TO MACH was a good second in his last two at this level. (6) JUSTIFIED toured the track from the eight hole in his seasonal debut and he could be ready to show more tonight.

Race 4

(7) KIWI IDEAL N beat better last week but apparently that didn't count so he gets to drop in class tonight. Cassar trainee is clearly sharp but he may need some help from this spot. (2) SOURCE OF PRIDE swept the field when at this level four back. (3) LIFE UP FRONT returns from a failed try at The Meadowlands; prior race here was a winning effort.

Race 5

(4) ROLLWITHITHARRY moves up off a loss but he's been competitive with this type in the past and all Dube needs is a live trip to score. (1) EIGHTEEN drops and gets needed post relief but I'm not convinced he'll show enough late. (3) THE LUNCH PAIL has hit the ticket in his last two at this level.

Race 6

(2) SAPPHIRE CITY is clearly back in midseason form and with his versatility this lucky post draw should suit him perfectly. (6) TAKE IT BACK TERRY lands another poor post and loses my top endorsement as a result. Price should be decent if you want to take a swing. (1) PANCETTA is back from the west coast but he may need an acclimating mile.

Race 7

(1) AMERICAN RAGE gets needed post relief and seems to have no excuses from this spot. (4) BLATANTLY BEST arrived from The Meadowlands last week and promptly landed in the eight hole; he should have a better shot tonight. (2) DONAU is razor-sharp and is up in class looking for three in a row.

Race 8

(2) EXIT CAM showed some sneaky improvement last week and with the class and post relief he merits a long look. (3) SOMETHINGINTHEWIND also gets much-needed post relief and should be more involved. (7) BJ'S GUY could be a closing threat at a price.

Race 9

(4) MCERLEAN gets away from the Open types and can prosper versus these. (2) DOCTOR BUTCH also drops from the Open, gets a much better post and picks up Brennan; lots to like. (1) CASIMIR JITTERBUG was second to PH Supercam last week, now draws best here; threat.

Race 10

(1) TOWNSLIGHT HANOVER lacks the class of some of these but he's been very sharp and he lands a lucky inside post; worth a repeat play. (3) FAMEOUS WESTERN fits nicely here and would be the top choice if not for the missed time. (5) BAD BOY MATT had missed some time prior to last week's flat effort; Burke trainee can be better tonight.

Race 11

(1) HEEZ ORL BLACK N could not reach off dull cover after missing almost a month. Tonight he's back on a regular rotation, draws best and looks very imposing from this spot. (6) ONE THROUGH TEN was Bartlett's choice and can fire from the gate. (4) FLIPPER J benefitted in last week's controversial race and he can pick up a share here.

Race 12

(1) HANG TEN has been crying out for an inside post and he won't let the opportunity pass. (6) MICKEY HANOVER is better than he's been showing; must include here. (5) THAT'LL BE THE REI has raced very well in defeat in his two local starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Kodiak Kody, 5-1
(8th) Understanding, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Oportuno, 4-1
(8th) Indy's Illusion, 9-2

Delta Downs (5th) Tru Forty Won, 3-1
(9th) Wildcat Angie, 6-1

Fair Grounds (7th) Trifecta, 3-1
(10th) Rosetta's Charm, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Holiday Maker, 6-1
(4th) Kingsbury, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (1st) Princessbellaoncal, 3-1
(11th) Gryvon, 3-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Griffin the Great, 9-2
(4th) W W Distinction, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Prize Patrol, 9-2
(7th) Lil Tiffy, 7-2


Mountaineer Park (1st) Super Cobra, 6-1
(8th) Belief System, 6-1


Oaklawn Park (2nd) Steamnstone, 6-1
(9th) Saturdaynitelites, 5-1


Parx Racing (3rd) Tampa Bay Blue, 3-1
(7th) Kid Rollins, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Reason to Drink, 9-2
(5th) Wine Sob, 5-1


Sam Houston (2nd) Unbridled Retreat, 3-1
(6th) Tetrad, 4-1


Santa Anita (1st) Sheer Talent, 3-1
(2nd) Momma Tried, 6-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Excellent Chance, 9-2
(7th) Backwater Blues, 5-1


Turfway Park (8th) Salty Rim, 5-1
(9th) Path to Power, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- They had over 15,000 people in Arizona for a Cubs-Reds game Friday.

-- Longwood 68, Charleston Southern 60-- #1 seed in Big South goes down.

-- Yale 62, Harvard 52-- Bulldogs win tonite, they win first Ivy title since 1962.

-- Belmont 53, Eastern Kentucky 52-- Bruins are 21-3 in last 24 conference tourney games. Rick Byrd is an excellent coach.

-- Hawks 106, Cavaliers 97-- Atlanta has an 11-game lead over the entire East.

-- Wizards 99, Heat 97-- Washington was up 28 at the half.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Saturday
by Alan Matthews

It’s the final Saturday of the regular season and, as usual, all eyes in the college basketball world will be on Kentucky. The Cats nearly saw their unbeaten dreams end on Tuesday but were able to escape in Athens. On the updated Sportsbook undefeated odds through the Big Dance, UK is now +130 to do so and -165 not to. I’m not a Kentucky fan at all, but the NCAA Tournament will be vastly more interesting if it is unbeaten entering that. The Cats host Florida on Saturday, a team that won in Lexington last season. Here’s a look at that game and two others that caught my eye.

Michigan State at Indiana (TBA)

This Big Ten matchup is at noon on ESPN. Could Hoosiers coach Tom Crean be fired if Indiana loses this game? It would be devastating as IU is currently listed on ESPN Bracketology among the “Last Four In” and a No. 12 seed in a play-in game. At one point, Indiana was 15-4 and ranked in the Top 25.

If you believe Indiana AD Fred Glass, Crean’s job is safe. Glass said he had to respond after a 77-63 home loss to Iowa on Tuesday that dropped IU to 19-11 overall and 9-8 in the conference. Glass said he met with Crean on Wednesday and reassured him about his job security. Glass says Crean’s buyout doesn’t matter, but that’s hogwash. According to ESPN, the Hoosiers could buy out the deal for $12 million until July 1 and then $7.5 million after. It drops drop to $4 million in July 2016 and then to $1 million for 2017-20. I’ve heard rumors of the Celtics’ Brad Stevens potentially returning to college and taking over the IU job if it came open. Michigan State (20-10, 11-6) would have been in some bubble danger had it lost at home to Purdue on Wednesday, but Sparty won 72-66 to end a two-game losing streak. Travis Trice tied his career high with 27 points in his final home game. Fellow senior Branden Dawson played only nine minutes after taking a shot to his head. He’s questionable. Dawson averages 11.6 points and 9.3 rebounds.

This is the first meeting of the season between the Spartans and Hoosiers. MSU was 2-0 against IU a season ago, winning by 17 in Bloomington.

Key trends: The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. They are 1-4 ATS in their past five Saturday games. Indiana is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 following an ATS loss. It is 1-4 ATS in its past five at home. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why the TBA: Because of Dawson. IU will be a solid favorite, but I think the Hoosiers win in a blowout, Dawson or not.

Florida at No. 1 Kentucky (-15)

This SEC matchup is a 2 p.m. on CBS. Of course UK is going to be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens here or in the SEC Tournament. The Cats look to run the table in the regular season against a Florida team that was unbeaten in SEC play last season but now is playing for maybe an NIT berth.

When I previewed Tuesday’s Kentucky game at Georgia, I thought the Bulldogs might win. And I was feeling good about that when they were up nine points in the second half — UK’s biggest second-half deficit all season. However, then the Wildcats went on a 14-0 run and won 72-64 (didn’t cover) to improve to 30-0 overall and 17-0 in the SEC. They are the fourth SEC team ever to win 30 straight games; Florida also did last year. UK is the 13th team in Division I history to start 30-0. The last three to do so didn’t win it all. The last that did was the unbeaten Indiana team in 1975-76. Florida (15-15, 8-9) hurt Texas A&M’s at-large bid chances with a 66-62 win in Gainesville on Tuesday. UF played its seventh consecutive game without leading scorer Michael Frazier II, who has a badly sprained ankle. There’s just about no way he plays here or probably in the SEC Tournament.

Florida has never beaten the nation’s No. 1 team in the regular season. The Gators did give Kentucky a good game on Feb. 7 in Gainesville, but the Wildcats won 68-61. Florida was up 44-42 midway through the second half before a thunderous Willie Cauley-Stein dunk tied the game and totally changed momentum.

Key trends: Florida is 4-9 ATS in its past 13 against teams with a winning record. The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their past seven on the road. Kentucky is 7-2 ATS in its past nine at home against teams with a losing road record. UK is 1-4 ATS in its past five following an ATS loss. UF is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Why take the favorite: Home finale, most likely, for at least a few of those young UK guys (Karl-Anthony Towns for sure). The focus will be there.

No. 9 Kansas at No. 15 Oklahoma (-3)

The Big 12 showdown is at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN, and it seems totally stacked against Kansas, which currently is projected as a No. 2 seed in the East. Oklahoma is a No. 4 in the South.

So here’s why I love OU here. First off, Kansas (24-6, 13-4) has squat to play for. The Jayhawks staged an amazing rally to beat West Virginia 76-69 in overtime on Tuesday to win the Big 12 regular-season title for the 11th straight year and earn the top seed in the conference tournament. The Jayhawks completed a 16-0 home season. In addition, Kansas junior forward Perry Ellis is not expected to play Saturday, but Coach Bill Self expects him back for the Big 12 Tournament. Ellis played 17 minutes against West Virginia before suffering a knee injury late in the first half when teammate Landen Lucas fell on his leg. Ellis underwent an MRI, which showed that he suffered a sprain. He is averaging 14.2 points and 7.0 rebounds. Plus highly-touted freshman Cliff Alexander has missed the past two games as the NCAA investigates an eligibility issue and surely won’t play Saturday. The NCAA doesn’t exactly work at warp speed in these matters. Oklahoma (20-9, 11-6) is aiming for the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Tournament as OU is currently tied for second with Iowa State. The Sooners lost at ISU 77-70 on Monday. Oklahoma had a 19-point halftime lead, but Iowa State scored 22 straight points in just over five minutes early in the second half.

Oklahoma lost at Kansas 85-78 on Jan. 19. KU was up 20 but the Sooners got it close with a 21-3 run out of halftime. Ellis had 16 points and Alexander 13 and 13 rebounds. Buddy Hield led OU with 26 points.

Key trends: Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its past five on the road. It is 0-5 ATS in its past five overall. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS in its past five. KU is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Why take the favorite: Pretty sure you know my reasons. I don’t think it’s close.



NCAAB Saturday’s Early Tips
By David Schwab

A trio of Wildcats that have high expectations of making a very deep run in this season’s NCAA Tournament will try and give the home-town crowd one last thrill when they close-out the regular season this Saturday afternoon. In the first of two 2 p.m. (ET) tips, No. 1 Kentucky will try and put the finishing touches on a perfect run through this season against Florida in this SEC clash. No. 4 Villanova will look to stay on a roll in the Big East in the other 2 p.m. start when it plays host to St. John’s. At 4 p.m., No. 5 Arizona will wrap things up in the Pac-12 against Stanford.

Florida Gators at No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -15 ½

The Gators have just three straight-up victories in their last nine games, but they are coming off back-to-back wins against Tennessee and Texas A&M. They have failed to cover in four of their last five outings with the total going OVER in three of those games. Florida is averaging 64.4 points per game while shooting 43.6 percent from the field. Junior guard Michael Frazier II is the team’s leading scorer with 13.2 PPG, but he remains questionable for Saturday with a bad ankle. Defensively, Florida is allowing an average of 59.7 PPG.

Kentucky continues to win with authority with a profitable 5-1 record ATS in its last six games, but they failed to cover in Tuesday’s 72-64 victory against Georgia as a 9.5-point favorite on the road. The total has now gone OVER in the Wildcats’ last four games. In their strive for perfection at 30-0 SU (16-13-1 ATS), they are averaging 74.9 PPG while shooting 46.8 percent from the field. Kentucky has shown some excellent balance all season long with seven different players averaging at least seven points a game, but defense remains the team’s primary strength by holding opponents to just 53.5 PPG.

Betting Trends

— The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games following a SU win.

— The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win and they have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on Saturday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games.

— The underdog in this series has covered in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games. Kentucky grinded-out a 68-61 win in the first meeting this season as an eight-point road favorite to snap a three-game SU losing streak to the Gators.

St. John’s Red Storm at No. 4 Villanova Wildcats (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Villanova -12

St. John’s has salvaged a dismal start in the Big East with a SU 7-1 record in its last eight games while going 5-2-1 ATS. This past Wednesday, the Red Storm knocked-off Marquette 67-51 as two-point road favorites. The total has now stayed UNDER in four of their last six outings. They are averaging 71.8 PPG on the year, but this number has climbed to 77 points in their last seven wins. Sophomore guard Rysheed Jordan led all scorers in Wednesday’s win with 23 points, while senior guard D’Angelo Harrison was a close second with 21 points while going 4-for-8 from three-point range.

Villanova brings a SU 11-game winning streak into its Big East finale, but this could be the most important game it plays this season in a quest for a No. 1 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats’ 10-game winning streak ATS came to an end in Tuesday’s 76-72 victory against Creighton as 9.5-point road favorites. The total has gone OVER in their last four games. Junior guard Ryan Arcidiacono came up big in the win over the Bluejays with a game-high 23 points and Villanova has now exceeded its season scoring average of 75.7 points in its last five games.

Betting Trends

— The Red Storm are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record.

— The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games played on Saturday. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five home games.

— The favorite in this matchup is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine games. Villanova has won the six meetings SU including a 90-72 victory on Jan. 6 as a 4.5-point road favorite.

Stanford Cardinal at No. 5 Arizona Wildcats (CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Arizona -14 ½

Stanford is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games with a costly 2-7 record ATS. It is coming off back-to-back losses (SU and ATS) to Oregon and Arizona State and the total has now stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games. The Cardinal are still one of the better scoring teams in the nation with 73 PPG, but they are shooting just 43.7 percent from the field. Senior guard Chasson Randle has led the way with 19.2 PPG. The main problem for Stanford has been a defense that is allowing an average of 66.3 points to its opponents.

The Wildcats officially clinched the outright Pac-12 regular season title in impressive fashion this past Thursday with a 99-60 rout of California as heavy 19-point home favorites. They are now 15-2 SU in conference play and they have covered in 11 of their last 13 outings. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five games. Junior forward Brandon Ashley posted a game-high 21 points in Thursday’s win and Arizona had six different players score in double figures on the night. Freshman forward Stanley Johnson leads the team on the year with 14.1 PPG.

Betting Trends

— The Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and they have failed to cover in their last four road games. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 11 games on the road.

— The Wildcats have covered in four of their last five home games and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games played at home.

— Head-to-head in this series, the road team has covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings and the total has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 games played at Arizona. The Wildcats won the first meeting this season 89-82 as 3.5-point road favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, March 7 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I thoroughly enjoy watching the Portland Trail Blazers play basketball because it’s usually an exciting, up-tempo game. Of course, their stars are LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. I thought the team had a legitimate shot to win the West after acquiring Arron Afflalo at the trade deadline from Denver. I don’t think that any longer because the Blazers lost very underrated guard Wesley Matthews for the season to a torn Achilles’ tendon on Thursday. He had started every game this season and averaged 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists while ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-pointers made. It may have been Matthews’ final game in a Blazers uniform as he’s a free agent after the season. Tough loss. Portland is +1500 to win the West at Sportsbook. The Blazers are back in action Saturday and here’s a look at every game.

Grizzlies at Pelicans (pick’em, 191)

Both played Friday, with Memphis hosting the Lakers and Pelicans home to Boston. So that New Orleans didn’t have to travel is a nice advantage. The Grizzlies and Pelicans have split two meetings. Memphis won by 12 at home very early in the season. On Jan. 9 in New Orleans, the Pelicans won 106-95 behind 21 points and 10 rebounds from Tyreke Evans. Anthony Davis had 20 points and nine boards. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol led Memphis with 19 points each.

Key trends: Memphis is 0-6 against the spread in its past six trips to New Orleans. The “over/under” has gone over in seven of the past nine meetings overall.

Early lean: Pelicans and over.



Suns at Cavaliers (-10, 213)

Phoenix was in Brooklyn on Friday and Cleveland in Atlanta. The Suns beat the visiting Cavaliers 107-100 on Jan. 13 behind 35 points from Markieff Morris. Phoenix outscored Cleveland 11-3 over the last 3:31. LeBron James had 33 points in what was the Cavs’ sixth straight loss at the time. They did rally from a 19-point, third-quarter deficit to go ahead in the fourth. Cavs fans may remember that game as well for Kevin Love not playing a minute in the fourth quarter as Coach David Blatt appeared to be making a statement.

Key trends: Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its past seven in the second of a back-to-back. Cleveland is 11-1 ATS in its past 12 at home. The under is 7-2 in the Cavs’ past nine at home.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.



Kings at Heat (-4.5, 205)

Sacramento visited Orlando on Friday and Miami was in Washington. The Heat won at the Kings 95-83 on Jan. 16. Chris Bosh had 30 points and Luol Deng 25 for Miami, which was without Dwyane Wade. DeMarcus Cousins was only 4-for-12 for 17 points with eight turnovers for Sacramento. Rudy Gay missed it for the Kings as did top reserve Carl Landry. Of course, the Heat don’t have Bosh these days but do have Goran Dragic. The Kings were team hoping to trade for him as well.

Key trends: The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their past five vs. the West. The over is 6-1 in Miami’s past seven against teams with a losing record. The Kings are just 2-10 ATS in their past 12 in Miami.

Early lean: Heat and under.



Pacers at Knicks (+10, 189.5)

Indiana hosted Chicago on Friday. New York followed its worst loss of the season, 124-86 at home to Sacramento, with another abomination on Wednesday at these Pacers: a 105-82 defeat. Interesting that Indiana had a game in between but it’s a home-and-home for the Knicks. Indiana forced 19 Knicks turnovers and turned them into 23 points. Andrea Bargnani led New York by matching his season-best with 25 points. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 13 as the Knicks lost for the 10th time in 12 games.

Key trends: The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-0 in New York’s past four against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Knicks (can’t play this badly three straight right?) and under.



Hawks at 76ers (+11.5, 192.5)

Seems like a huge potential letdown game for Atlanta as it hosted Cleveland on Friday in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview. Philly was home to Utah on Friday. The Hawks go for the four-game season sweep here. They blew out Philadelphia in the first two meetings but won by just six at home on Jan. 31. The Hawks are averaging 97.0 points on 44.5 percent shooting while Sixers are averaging 83.7 ppg on 40.2 percent from the field. That most recent win over Philly was Atlanta’s 19th straight win but the Hawks lost the next game. They have won seven straight in this series overall.

Key trends: Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: Sixers and under.



Trail Blazers at Timberwolves (+6, 202)

I won’t bury the lead here: I fully expect the Blazers to come out a bit flat after that crushing injury to Matthews. As Aldridge said of Matthews: He’s the heart and soul of this team.” Matthews is nicknamed “Iron Man” for his toughness. I would imagine Afflalo starts unless Terry Stotts likes him with the second unit. Portland’s win over Denver was the Blazers’ fifth straight. The Wolves lost their fourth straight on Wednesday, 100-85 at home to Denver. Minnesota shot just 39 percent overall and 3-for18 on 3-pointers. Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic both returned after missing a game with an illness but both struggled. The Blazers and Wolves have split two meetings, each winning at home.

Key trends: The home team has covered five of the past seven meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six in Minnesota.

Early lean: Wolves and over.



Wizards at Bucks (-3, 189)

Washington was home to Miami on Friday. Milwaukee played horribly on a four-game West Coast trip, losing all of them by at least seven points and not topping 95 in any of them. Guard O.J. Mayo sat out for the fourth time in five games Wednesday at Golden State because of a sore right hamstring. The Wizards are 2-0 vs. the Bucks this season, winning each by 11 points. This is the final meeting of the regular season. Washington has won four straight in the series overall.

Key trends: Washington is 4-1 ATS in its past five in Milwaukee. The over is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Wizards and over.



Rockets at Nuggets (TBA)

Houston was home to Detroit on Friday, while Denver was in San Antonio. The Rockets and Nuggets played back-to-back games in December. The Rockets’ Beverley and Terrence Jones were questionable against the Pistons. Denver center Jusuf Nurkic remains out. The Nuggets entered Friday 2-0 under interim coach Melvin Hunt and are playing with a totally different mindset. Houston leads the season series 2-0, winning at home 108-96 and in Denver, 115-111 in overtime. NBA scoring leader James Harden is averaging 32.5 points in the two.

Key trends: Houston is 1-4 ATS in its past five in Denver. The over is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: I like Denver to win outright, and the Nugs certainly will be dogs when the line posts.