Saturday 3/5/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jazz (28-33) at Pelicans (23-37)

Date: March 05, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

While the Utah Jazz's longest losing streak in 15 months has delivered a major blow their playoff chances, the New Orleans Pelicans' slide has all but put an end to theirs.

Facing the club that started their fall from a postseason spot, the visiting Jazz hope to avoid their sixth consecutive defeat Saturday night against the injury-ravaged Pelicans.

Utah appeared to be headed to its first playoff appearance since 2011-12 on Feb. 9 when a season-high seven-game winning streak put it seventh in the Western Conference.

Anthony Davis took it upon himself to halt that run the next night, hitting a hook shot and a 3-pointer in the final minute of New Orleans' 100-96 home victory. Starting with that contest, the Jazz have dropped eight of 10 to fall two games out of postseason position.

Gordon Hayward had 18 points and Rudy Gobert added 13 and 18 rebounds Friday when Utah (28-33) led by as many as 14 but couldn't hold on in a 94-88 loss at Memphis. The club's five-game losing streak is its longest since dropping nine in a row from Nov. 21-Dec. 8, 2014.

'Our guys hurt,' coach Quin Snyder said after the team's third stop on a four-game trip.

Utah's biggest struggles have been offensively as they've averaged just 90.2 points on 41.6 percent shooting during the slide. Rodney Hood has scored 9.8 per game with a 30.8 field-goal percentage in his last five after averaging 19.9 points in the prior 15.

The Pelicans (23-37) had been within 5 1/2 games of a postseason spot after a 5-2 push capped by an impressive 123-119 home win over Oklahoma City on Feb. 25. However, they've since lost three in a row to fall into 12th place and 6 1/2 back with only 22 remaining.

New Orleans seemed to have San Antonio on the ropes Thursday before the Spurs closed out the contest with a 12-0 run over the final 3:10 for a 94-86 road win. The Pelicans also lost a six-point lead in the final five minutes of Wednesday's 100-95 loss at Houston.

'We have to find a way to figure out who we can go to at the end of the game that can get us those baskets,' coach Alvin Gentry said.

Eric Gordon has been a bright spot, averaging 22.7 points while hitting 11 of 24 from 3-point range in three games since missing 16 because of a broken finger. Davis has scored just 17 per game on 43.3 percent shooting in his last four while trying to overcome a toe injury.

The Pelicans have already lost Quincy Pondexter, Tyreke Evans and Bryce Dejean-Jones to season-ending injuries. Now Alexis Ajinca is sidelined indefinitely because of a fractured sternum, while fellow center Omer Asik is questionable with a sprained ankle.

Still, New Orleans will try to begin a late run by winning its third straight against Utah.

Davis has an opportunity to set a franchise record with his 128th game of at least 10 points and 10 boards. He's averaged 29.2 on 62.8 percent and 10.2 in his last five meetings with the Jazz.

Derrick Favors did not play in Utah's 101-87 home win Nov. 28, but he's totaled 51 points on 21-of-30 shooting in the past two matchups.

The Jazz have lost 16 of 20 on the road and seven of the past nine at New Orleans.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Celtics (38-25) at Cavaliers (43-17)

Date: March 05, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

For all the talk about the Cleveland Cavaliers playing faster under Tyronn Lue, they've been at their best when they're moving at a more deliberate pace.

Quite the opposite for the Boston Celtics.

Tempo could be key in deciding Saturday night's winner in Cleveland in the final regular-season meeting between two of the Eastern Conference's top teams.

Last season's first-round series was played at a pace more to the Cavaliers' liking, an average of 95.9 possessions per 48 minutes that suited the league's sixth-slowest team much more than its fifth fastest and unsurprisingly led to a Cleveland sweep.

Those extremes have become greater in 2015-16, with Boston (38-25) third in the league in pace (101.4 possessions) and Cleveland at 29th (95.3) with nothing more than a tiny uptick since David Blatt was fired.

It's hard to argue with either's preference. The Cavaliers (43-17) are 37-8 when using fewer than 100 possessions while the Celtics are 12-5 when at 105 or more.

There were 92 possessions when Cleveland suffocated Boston in an 89-77 win at TD Garden on Dec. 15 - the Celtics' 32.2 percent shooting remains their worst in the last two seasons - but 102 on Feb. 5.

That game came down to the final one, when Avery Bradley's 3 at the buzzer capped a comeback from four points down with seven seconds left in a 104-103 victory that remains Boston's most impressive of an outstanding seven-week stretch.

The Celtics are 19-6 since Jan. 13 after rallying from eight down in the final four minutes to beat New York 105-104 on Friday, capping a five-game homestand with their 13th straight win at TD Garden.

"The sky's the limit," Evan Turner said after scoring 21 points off the bench. "... I think when it comes down to a four-game series and all of us are healthy and everything, I think we'll give a lot of teams a lot of problems."

The Cavs are 16-8 since Boston's jumping-off point in mid-January, with off-the-court question marks serving as a sideshow to their somewhat inconsistent play.

They put together one of their more complete performances in a while Friday despite resting Kevin Love, who sat out as Cleveland kicked off a stretch of seven games in 11 days across four time zones but was hardly missed in a 108-83 rout of Washington.

With their stretch-4 out, the Cavs went with a smaller lineup. LeBron James started at power forward and Iman Shumpert played the 3, and James matched a season high with 13 boards while still dishing out seven assists and scoring 19 points.

"It worked to our favor for sure," James said. "Our offense is a lot faster, a little bit more precise with me at the four. I'm going to be setting a lot more transition and half-court pick and rolls. I know I can either get my guy open or if they put two on the ball I'm able to make a play, able to be a quarterback."

Lue said Love will likely see time at center Saturday, but banging down low against Boston can't sound too appealing to him. After his postseason ended following Kelly Olynyk's Game 4 shoulder yank, Love exited last month's loss with a thigh bruise that ultimately didn't prove to be serious.

Kyrie Irving has averaged 22.4 points in five games in this series since the playoff opener, while the Celtics' star point guard hasn't been able to find his shot. Isaiah Thomas, who has totaled 62 points in his last two games, is shooting just 31.7 percent in nine against the Cavs since arriving in Boston at last season's trade deadline.

"This team, they got a curse on me," Thomas said after finishing with 22 points but shooting 5 for 19 last month. "With this team, nothing falls for me. Hopefully the next time we play them I have even a better game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pacers (32-30) at Wizards (30-31)

Date: March 05, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Despite a rough loss in their last game, the Washington Wizards have surged into the Eastern Conference playoff hunt and have a shot to close in on a team they're chasing.

The Wizards sit just below the postseason cutoff in the East's 10th spot ahead of Saturday night's home matchup against the Indiana Pacers, whose hold on seventh place should be considered tentative with a slew of tough opponents on the horizon.

Washington (30-31) lost nine of 13 entering the All-Star break but has gone 7-3 since to pull within one game of eighth-place Detroit and one and a half of Indiana (32-30) in the standings. Chicago is also giving chase and sits a half-game above in ninth.

The good news is that the upcoming schedules for the Pistons and Pacers aren't favorable. After this contest, Indiana faces a tough six-game stretch that features San Antonio, Toronto and Oklahoma City, while five of Detroit's next six are on the road.

The Wizards, meanwhile, will have an opportunity to climb the ladder if those teams stumble through those slates. Washington gets to face sub.-500 teams Utah, Denver, Philadelphia and New York over its next seven games following the Pacers.

Getting off to a good start against Indiana is paramount, and making things tough on Paul George should be the key.

George scored 40 points on 14-of-19 shooting, including 7 of 8 from 3-point range, in a 123-106 win in D.C. on Nov. 24, but when the teams met in Indianapolis on Jan. 15, he scored 21 but shot 6 of 19 and went 1 for 7 from long range in a 118-104 loss.

John Wall was the star for the Wizards that night with 28 points on 12-of-21 shooting, eight assists and seven rebounds after taking only nine shots and finishing with 18 points and five assists in the November loss.

Washington's recent four-game winning streak featured two weak opponents - the 76ers and twice and one against Minnesota - but it couldn't duplicate the biggest of the bunch in Friday's rematch with Cleveland. After beating the Cavaliers 113-99 in the nation's capital Sunday, the Wizards were throttled 108-83 at Quicken Loans Arena.

The point total was their lowest since a 97-75 loss to Miami on Jan. 3 and ended a six-game stretch of topping 100. Wall shot the ball well, going 8 of 14 with 17 points and seven assists, but the rest of his teammates were at 35.8 percent.

"It's not a step back," Wall said. "It's just an old-fashioned tail-whipping. That's what they gave us."

Wall may again have a chance to put up big numbers against the Pacers, who had a hard time containing another All-Star caliber point guard Friday, allowing Kemba Walker to dictate the pace with 33 points and 10 assists in Charlotte's 108-101 victory.

Wall has seemingly had his way with Indiana, averaging 24.2 points and 7.3 assists in the last six meetings while shooting 52.4 percent or better in five of them, but his strong play in those games has only resulted in a 3-3 split.

George had a strong line Friday with 35 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and five steals, but he scored only six in the fourth quarter. He also didn't get much help from George Hill and Monta Ellis, who shot a combined 10 of 31 for 27 points.

"We failed to get stops and failed to score," coach Frank Vogel said after Indiana was outscored 28-19 in the fourth to lose its fourth in five games after a 8-4 span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pistons (31-30) at Knicks (25-38)

Date: March 05, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Stan Van Gundy knows the key to the Detroit Pistons success has to do with ball movement. A matchup with a crumbling opponent should also help.

The injury-riddled Pistons look to do a better job of sharing the ball Saturday night when they try to capitalize on a meeting with the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

Detroit (31-30) is trying to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008-09. The Pistons have a tenuous hold on eighth place in the Eastern Conference, one-half game ahead of Chicago and one in front of Washington.

Their attempt to widen that gap fell short Wednesday as their season high-tying four-game win streak ended with a 97-81 loss at San Antonio. Detroit was held to 30 points on 9-for-36 shooting in the second half, while totaling five assists compared to 14 in the opening 24 minutes.

The Pistons are last in the NBA in assists percentage at 49.6.

"All I know is when it starts for us, a lot of times it never stops," Van Gundy told the team's official website of the lack of ball movement. "Once one guy's not moving it, then the next guy's not moving it and then we're ending up in a one-on-one game. I don't know why it starts, but when it does we have a hard time getting ourselves out of it."

Injuries are posing another problem with Stanley Johnson (shoulder), Anthony Tolliver (knee) and Jodie Meeks still out. Tolliver has missed five games and Johnson four, while Meeks is nearing a return from a broken foot suffered in October.

With all the injuries, Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond are under even more pressure to produce. Jackson was limited to 11 points on 4 for 13 from the field Wednesday after averaging 23.0 on 54.3 percent in his previous five games.

Drummond, meanwhile, had his career-high streak of 13 straight double-doubles snapped with nine points and 14 rebounds.

Both had little trouble in a 111-105 win over the Knicks on Feb. 4. Jackson scored 21 points, while Drummond had 17 and 13.

Detroit has won five of seven against New York with a 54.2 assists percentage.

The Knicks (25-38) are on their way to missing the playoffs for a third straight season thanks to a 3-16 stretch during which they've surrendered 104.8 points.

They squandered an eight-point lead in the final 3 1/2 minutes Friday in a 105-104 loss at Boston.

"We have to build better habits," guard Arron Afflalo said. "It's our shot selection and turnovers, uncharacteristic turnovers - whether it be from myself or anyone else. ... The more we minimize those things the better we will be."

Carmelo Anthony had 30 points Friday and is averaging 26.0 in his last three games, but was held to 19 while missing 14 of 18 shots against the Pistons last month.

Offense has been hard to come by lately at home for New York, which has lost eight of nine at MSG while averaging 93.6 points on 41.4 percent shooting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nets (18-44) at Timberwolves (19-43)

Date: March 05, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Brooklyn Nets don't often present matchup problems but are coming off one of their better offensive efforts of the season.

They're also heading into a meeting with a team that seems incapable of limiting anyone, and Saturday night's stop in Minnesota threatens the Timberwolves with their seventh losing streak of at least four games this season.

Making its sixth stop on a season-high nine-game trip, Brooklyn (18-44) needed overtime for Friday's 121-120 win in Denver but shot 50.5 percent and made 13 of 22 from 3-point range.

Over a 6-6 span during the last month, the Nets have averaged 105.1 points on 47.8 percent shooting overall and 44.1 from beyond the arc after managing 95.6 on 44.7 and 32.8 in 50 games until that point.

"We had so many great looks from 3 over the course of the game," Brook Lopez told the team's official website. "Definitely in the first half and it really opened things up for us and got us a lot of stuff inside."

That included Lopez's tip-in with 0.4 seconds left in overtime as the Nets, whose next stops are Toronto and Philadelphia, gave themselves a chance to match or improve on the four away wins they had in 23 games before this trip in a single road stretch.

They're also trying for consecutive wins of any kind for the second time in six games after going their previous 35 without stringing wins together.

That's due in part to some fresh faces contributing. Markel Brown scored a career-high 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting and hit 3 of 4 from long range with eight rebounds and seven assists, while Bojan Bogdanovic added 17 points and is averaging 17.2 in five straight games as a starter.

"I was just playing in the flow of the game," Brown said. "The bigs set awesome screens, there was a road to the basket and I was able find on the pocket pass. We made open shots and it opened up the inside."

Minnesota won 100-85 in Brooklyn on Dec. 20 behind 24 points and 10 rebounds from Karl-Anthony Towns.

Since the start of February, the Timberwolves (19-43) have allowed an average of 112.3 points in 13 games - all ending in regulation - on 48.7 percent overall and 38.4 from 3-point range. The last six have hit at least 10 3-pointers, and the Bucks went 14 of 24 in Friday's 116-101 final in Milwaukee. Minnesota's last three opponents have shot at least 50.0 percent overall.

"They have to understand, every single night you've got to earn it, you don't get to sleepwalk your way through 20, 25 minutes of the game and then decide you've got to play," coach Sam Mitchell said.

There's also the matter of turnovers with Minnesota averaging 17.7 in the last six games, including a season-high 26 against the Bucks.

"That's something that obviously we've got to fix," said Towns, the February Rookie of the Month who's averaged 21.4 points and 11.9 rebounds over his last 19 games.

"You can't beat teams like this, especially a team that was a playoff team last year, looking to be a playoff team this year, with those kinds of mistakes happening over and over and over again."

Zach LaVine has started the last four games and averaged 19.0 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (25-35) at Spurs (52-9)

Date: March 05, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

A sparkling record, an absurdly long home winning streak and Kawhi Leonard as an MVP candidate continue to go seemingly unrecognized compared to that one team from northern California.

Too bad it's the other one coming to San Antonio on Saturday night, and the Sacramento Kings aren't expected to get in the way of the Spurs improving to 30-0 at home.

Sacramento did end a 22-game losing streak in Dallas with a 104-101 victory Thursday. But that came against a Mavericks team just trying to reach the playoffs, whereas the Spurs (52-9) wrapped up a berth this week.

That wasn't a surprising achievement but impressive nonetheless because it came with six weeks left in the season, though it came days after Golden State clinched. San Antonio's record at this point is the best in franchise history but 3 1/2 games worse than a Warriors team on pace for the best in NBA history.

Plus, Golden State tied Chicago's league record for the longest regular-season home winning streak at 44 on Thursday, leaving San Antonio's run of 38 straight an afterthought. Still, that streak is tied for fourth-best all-time with Boston's run from 1985-86. And since the Warriors have played three fewer home games, it's the Spurs who could join the 1995-96 Bulls and Orlando Magic as the only teams to open a season 30-0 at home.

While Stephen Curry remains the MVP favorite, Leonard might be in line for runner-up. His 48.4 3-point percentage tops Curry (46.5) and everyone else, but Leonard's scoring average of 20.8 is nearly 10 below Curry. Leonard, though, is significantly better on defense, and his worth at that end has been further proven since the All-Star break.

He missed the first three games with a calf injury as the Spurs allowed 109.7 points per game on 48.4 percent shooting. In five games since he returned, they have surrendered averages of 86.2 points and 40.8 percent as Leonard has totaled 12 steals.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has been just as good offensively, with at least 27 points in four consecutive games while shooting 59.7 percent. His 3-pointer with 35 seconds left Thursday sealed a 30-point night and a 94-86 win in New Orleans.

'I'm just playing in the flow of the game. It doesn't matter what quarter it is. I'm going to play the right basketball so we can get the right shots,' Leonard said.

He's forming quite a tandem with LaMarcus Aldridge, averaging 25.0 points and 11.3 rebounds in the last three games. Aldridge is scoring 21.1 per game since the beginning of February after averaging 15.8 in his first 43 games with San Antonio.

'Being able to play with him ... I see how good he really is and I'm just starting to learn more about him,' Leonard said.

Despite the two All-Stars combining to shoot 7 for 27, San Antonio had little trouble winning 108-92 in Sacramento on Feb. 24. Tony Parker had 23 points, a star who scored only two Thursday.

'It's tough to defend them because they don't have a one-man ego person. I mean that team is a team,' Kings coach George Karl said. "... They have a lot of weapons."

The Kings (25-35) have lost both meetings as Aldridge helped limit DeMarcus Cousins to 30.2 percent shooting and 21.5 points - 5.5 below his season average.

Cousins' 16.9 career mark against the Spurs is his third-lowest versus any opponent, one reason Sacramento has lost 26 of 28 in the series.

Rajon Rondo had 18 assists in last week's matchup, part of a 10-game stretch in which he's averaged 14.1, but he shot 3 for 10. Rondo was 8 of 14 for 18 points Thursday as the Kings improved to 11-4 when shoots better than 50 percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockets (30-31) at Bulls (30-30)

Date: March 05, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Having fallen out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference, the Chicago Bulls are hoping the expected return of Jimmy Butler will inject some life into their fading playoff hopes.

The problem with that is the Bulls weren't playing that great before Butler's injury.

Butler looks to help Chicago avoid dropping under .500 this late in a season for the first time in six years when it hosts the Houston Rockets on Saturday night.

While his teammates were in Florida suffering a pair of blowout losses, Butler put the finishing touches on his rehab for a sprained left knee. The coaching staff reportedly won't be monitoring his minutes in his first game action since Feb. 5.

The Bulls (30-30) lost that night and then dropped eight of the next 11. Another defeat and they'll fall under .500 after 60 games for the first time since they were 40-41 on April 13, 2010.

While Chicago will certainly welcome the return of Butler, who averages a team-leading 22.4 points and is one of the league's premier defenders, its struggles began long before the two-time All-Star went down.

The Bulls lost 10 of the last 14 games Butler played, averaging 99.8 points in those contests. They're averaging 101.4 points in his absence but their defense has really taken a step back.

Chicago has yielded at least 100 points in 15 consecutive games, its longest such streak since allowing opponents to reach triple digits in 25 straight contests in Michael Jordan's second season of 1985-86.

A night after facing an 11-point first quarter-deficit in a 129-111 loss to Miami, the Bulls fell behind by 14 less than 10 minutes into Wednesday's 102-89 defeat to Orlando.

'It's frustrating because we dig ourselves a hole again coming out of the gate,' coach Fred Hoiberg said. 'It's a trend that must stop if you want to make any kind of push. ... We've got 22 games left to figure this out.'

The Bulls will be tested by the high-powered Rockets (30-31), who have averaged 117.5 points in their last four road games and managed to reach the century mark Wednesday even though they had an historically bad shooting performance.

By going 3 of 35 from 3-point range, Houston became the first team in NBA history to make fewer than four 3s on 30 or more attempts, but still beat New Orleans 100-95.

James Harden went 1 of 9 on 3-pointers but was 10 of 15 from inside the arc while making 16 of 18 free throws to led all scorers with 39.

The Rockets, who trailed by nine in the second half, clamped down defensively late to pull away, limiting the Pelicans to 19 points while forcing five turnovers in the fourth quarter.

'Even though our shots weren't falling, we still relied on our defense, and that's what got us the win,' said Harden, averaging 36.0 points in the last five games.

Houston improved to 13-3 when allowing 100 or fewer points. The Bulls have averaged 90.7 in three of the four games during their losing streak.

Derrick Rose picked up the scoring slack for a while when Butler was out, averaging 26.0 points over a three-game stretch, but sat out the next three with a hamstring injury. He has totaled 33 points in two games since returning.

'There are no excuses,' Rose said. 'The season is not over. We still have a shot to be in the playoffs. This is foreign ground to a lot of us. We've got to find ways to make it up.'

The Rockets, holding onto eighth place in the West, have won five of seven against the Bulls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawks (34-28) at Clippers (40-20)

Date: March 05, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Blake Griffin is nearing a return, but the Los Angeles Clippers have done just fine without him.

The Clippers may need to overcome Griffin's absence again as they go for a four-game winning streak Saturday night against the visiting Atlanta Hawks.

Griffin has missed 34 games with a torn left quad and a broken hand he sustained when he punched a member of the Clippers' equipment staff in January.

The All-Star power forward is showing signs that a return is near, participating in a pregame warmup Wednesday in Oklahoma City. However, he remained out and watched the Clippers erase a 22-point deficit to beat the Thunder 103-98.

Coach Doc Rivers speculated that Griffin hasn't been cleared by doctors yet.

"That's probably why he's not playing," Rivers told the team's official website. "My guess is that he's healthy, but the hand doctor probably has not cleared him for contact as far as getting hit. That's the only thing. Honestly, watching him (Wednesday), I was thinking that has to be the only reason is they're worried it's not healed properly yet.

"That's the only thing I can come up with."

Griffin is averaging 23.2 points and 8.7 rebounds, but Los Angeles (40-20) hasn't missed him much during a 23-7 stretch in which it has scored 107.7 points per game.

Chris Paul has been vital to that production, averaging 21.8 points and 10.3 assists with Griffin out. He's been even better with 28.0 points and 12.7 assists per game while shooting 55.8 percent from the floor during a three-game winning streak.

Paul, however, had 11 points and missed 10 of 15 from the field at Atlanta on Jan. 27, but Jamal Crawford picked up the slack with 21 points, while DeAndre Jordan added 13 with 19 rebounds.

Crawford is averaging 19.8 points over the last four games, and his 14.0 season mark gives his a chance to become the NBA's first to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award for the third time.

"It's never happened before, so I honestly don't know," Crawford said. "I'm so locked in just trying to get wins. I mean, obviously those types of things come when you're winning."

The Hawks (34-28) have won three of their last four, yielding an average of 80.3 points on 34.6 percent shooting and 21.5 from long range in the victories.

Atlanta dominated the Los Angeles Lakers in every facet Friday, forcing them to shoot just 5 of 27 from 3-point range en route to a 106-77 win and the club's first sweep of the season series since 1973-74.

The Hawks, who shot 28.9 percent from beyond the arc in their previous five games, went 13 of 28 from deep and outscored the Lakers 27-2 on the fast break.

"When you start making 3s and then transitioning quickly, then you're scoring and getting stops, then getting another one on top of it, it can add up quickly," coach Mike Budenholzer said.

Balanced scoring isn't new for Atlanta, which has five players averaging double-digits on the season. That includes reserve Dennis Schroder, who has put up 15.6 points per game over the last eight while connecting on 54.1 percent of his shots.

The guard, however, is averaging 5.8 points in four career meetings with the Clippers after scoring seven in January.

Jeff Teague had 16 points and Paul Millsap had 14 with 12 boards in that meeting as every Hawks starter scored at least 12. Millsap, though, has averaged 18.7 points in the past six matchups with the Clippers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pace of play is simply your first stop when betting NBA totals
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

At times, we as human beings have the unfortunate habit of making life more difficult than necessary.

The various technological advancements made around the planet may have presented us with intriguing, time-saving opportunities such as the ability to order booze and cigarettes to our front doorsteps (an app we have here in San Francisco that I'm still not sure how to feel about), but we still require 45 minutes of precious time in order to herd 100 people onto an airplane and into their respective seats. Seriously, have you ever noticed how long it takes humanity to both embark and debark an aircraft?

Stand up, grab your bag, walk 50 feet. That process shouldn't take 10 minutes for each individual passenger.

Life doesn’t always need to be this complicated. And while the abundance of data and other forms of information available to the sportsbooks has made Las Vegas sharper than ever, it has also presented an opportunity for sports bettors to become more sophisticated in the ways of the trade. You don’t always need to unearth a trend that is hitting at 87 percent in order to pick a winner. Sometimes worthwhile data exists within just a few keystrokes, completely free of charge.

John Hollinger currently serves as the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, but he used to work as an analyst at ESPN where he created a proprietary NBA metric known as Player Efficiency Rating (PER) that helped lead to his hiring in Memphis. But the impact Hollinger made at the Worldwide Leader was significant enough for ESPN to create an NBA information page known as “Hollinger Team Statistics” that just so happens to include a statistic we have found to be quite useful in our daily pro hoops handicapping this season.

“Pace” is a metric defined as the number of possessions a team uses per game. For example, the Chicago Bulls have a pace metric of 98.9 this season, which means Derrick Rose and company are averaging 98.9 offensive possessions per game during the 2015-2016 season. For some perspective, a pace metric of 98.9 currently ranks 11th in the NBA.

Pace is significant because it’s simple to understand, yet tells a very detailed and important story. The higher the pace, the more possessions a team has. The more possessions a team has, the more opportunities said team has to shoot the basketball and score points. The more points a team scores, the more like the Over hits by the sound of the final buzzer.

Here’s a breakdown of the Top 5 and Bottom 5 NBA teams this season in terms of Pace (as of Thursday afternoon), as well as each team’s overall over/under record, over/under record for the last ten games and money won or lost had you bet every single over (for the top-five teams) or under (for the bottom-five teams) this season, based on a $110 wager to win $100.

TOP 5 NBA TEAMS IN PACE

*Note: Over/under records list the “Over” first, followed by the Under, followed by ties.

Sacramento Kings: 102.4 (1), 31-27-1, 8-2, +$130
Golden State Warriors: 102.2 (2), 35-24, 6-4, +$860
Boston Celtics: 101.4 (3), 31-31, 7-3, -$310
Phoenix Suns: 100.4 (4), 31-28-1, 6-4, +$20
Washington Wizards: 100.3 (5), 31-27-2, 4-6, +$130

Not only are each of the Top 5 NBA teams in terms of Pace at .500 or better when it comes to betting their respective Overs, but with the exception of the Wizards, each club has continued to churn out respectable results over their last 10 games. Of this group, only the Celtics have failed to turn a profit for fans of the Over.

So how do things shake down for the five teams that rank at the bottom of the NBA in terms of Pace? For these teams, are the Unders hitting as frequently as the Overs are hitting for the top-five franchises?

BOTTOM 5 NBA TEAMS IN PACE

*Note: Over/under records list the “Under” first, followed by the Over, followed by ties.

Utah Jazz: 93.4 (30), 33-26-1, 4-6, +$440
Cleveland Cavaliers: 95.2 (29), 31-28, 6-4, +$20
Toronto Raptors: 95.3 (28), 27-31-1, 3-7, -$710
Memphis Grizzlies: 95.4 (t-27), 27-32-1, 4-6, -$820
Miami Heat: 95.4 (t-27), 37-22-1, 5-5, +$1,280

While the results are not nearly as dominant with the Bottom 5 teams and their respective Unders as they are with the Top 5 teams and their respective Overs, it’s still clear that teams with a slower pace are scoring fewer points and cashing more Under tickets almost as frequently as the teams with a faster pace are scoring more points and cashing more Over tickets.

On a micro scale, just look at the Sacramento Kings - the team with the fastest pace - and compare them with the Utah Jazz - the team with the slowest pace. There’s a direct correlation here: teams with more possessions score more points and cash more Overs. Teams with fewer possessions score fewer points and cash more Under tickets.

This is the point in the story where we note that you can never rely solely on just one slice of intel when preparing to place a wager. The goal here is simply to identify helpful pieces of information that, when put together, present an accurate and insightful picture to handicap NBA games.

Pace is clearly an important tool when handicapping NBA totals. But you’ll also have to analyze the opponent, the schedule and other integral factors in the build-up to your final decision.

That is, assuming you have enough time to devote to such an endeavor after waiting 45 minutes to exit the plane.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Saturday, March 5 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

How well do you remember the 2008 NBA Draft? There were two clear favorites to go No. 1 overall that year: Memphis freshman point guard Derrick Rose and Kansas State freshman forward Michael Beasley. You have to remember, big men were still somewhat preferred then with all things being equal. And some scouts definitely would have taken Beasley No. 1. But the Chicago Bulls improbably won the lottery and didn't think twice about taking the hometown Rose. Sadly, it looks like neither player's career will live up to expectations. Rose was Hall of Fame-caliber great for a few years but can't stay healthy (as it turns out, Bulls should have taken Russell Westbrook). Beasley was never very good and out of the league for a while but is back after signing with Houston on Thursday fresh off being named MVP of the Chinese Basketball Association. So maybe we will see Rose and Beasley for a rare time on the same court Saturday night.

Celtics at Cavaliers (TBA)

Cleveland hosted Washington on Friday. Keep in mind that Coach Tyronn Lue has said he will rest LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and/or Kevin Love when possible going forward. Not saying he will do so with one here in the second of a back-to-back especially at home against a good team. But maybe -- early reports are Love will sit out Friday's game instead. Boston hosted New York on Friday. This is the final regular-season meeting between the Celtics and Cavs. They have split the first two, each winning at home.

Key trends: The road team is 5-0 against the spread in the past five meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in the past five.

Early lean: Wait and see which Cavs play.

Pistons at Knicks (+4, 198.5)

New York was in Boston on Friday. Detroit's four-game winning streak ended with a 97-81 loss at San Antonio on Wednesday. The Pistons' Andre Drummond was held to nine points -- but did have 14 rebounds -- to see his NBA season-high streak of 13 straight double-doubles end. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was held to four points. The Knicks and Pistons have each won at home against one another this season. Detroit has lost 10 of the last 12 games on the road against New York.

Key trends: The Pistons have covered only six of the past 21 in the series. The over is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: Pistons and over.

Pacers at Wizards (-2.5, 208)

Washington was in Cleveland on Friday, while Indiana was in Charlotte. This is the final meeting of the season between Indiana and Washington and thus could prove an important playoff tiebreaker. They have split the first two, each winning on the road. In the Pacers' win in D.C., they set a franchise record while making 19 3-pointers and shooting 73.1 percent from long range, an NBA record for a team that made at least 19.

Key trends: The Pacers are 6-0 in their past six in D.C. The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings overall.

Early lean: Wizards and over.

Jazz at Pelicans (pick'em, 199)

Utah was in Memphis on Friday. New Orleans lost a third straight Thursday, 94-86 at home to San Antonio. It was the third straight game the Pelicans blew a fourth-quarter lead. New Orleans missed its final six shots in this one. Anthony Davis finished with 17 points and 13 rebounds. Omer Asik (sprained right ankle) and Alexis Ajinca (fractured sternum) both sat out, and Ajinca is out weeks. New Orleans leads the season series against Utah 2-1.

Key trends: The Jazz are 4-1-1 ATS in their past five at New Orleans. The over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Pelicans and under.

Nets at Timberwolves (-4.5, 214)

Brooklyn was in Denver and Minnesota in Milwaukee on Friday. The Timberwolves won in Brooklyn 100-85 on Dec. 20. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and 10 rebounds, and Gorgui Dieng added 20 points with 10 boards. Brook Lopez topped the Nets with 20 points and 12 rebounds. Minnesota has won nine of the past 13 meetings overall. It did lose at home last season to Brooklyn, however.

Key trends: The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over has hit in eight of Minnesota's past 10 in the second of a back-to-back.

Early lean: Timberwolves and over.

Rockets at Bulls (+1.5, 216)

This is the Saturday night ABC game of the week and should have live betting at sportsbooks. Probably not the matchup ABC was hoping for when the schedule came out. The Rockets and Bulls were both fringe title contenders last year but are fighting for their playoffs lives this year. Houston ended a two-game losing streak with a 100-95 win over New Orleans on Wednesday despite shooting a ridiculous 3-for-34 from 3-point range, an NBA record for futility. James Harden led Houston with 39 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. Chicago's free-fall continued with a 102-89 loss in Orlando on Wednesday, the Bulls' fourth straight defeat. They played without an injured Taj Gibson, and he's questionable here. Cameron Bairstow actually started. That's how bad things are right now in the Windy City. But there is some good news coming: All-Star guard Jimmy Butler is likely to return Saturday after missing 11 games with a knee injury. This is the first meeting of the season. Houston has lost five of its past seven in Chicago.

Key trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 5-0 in the past five in Chicago.

Early lean: Rockets and over -- even if Butler plays, he's not 100 percent yet.

Kings at Spurs (-12.5, 209.5)

Sacramento ended a four-game losing streak with a very surprising 104-101 win in Dallas on Thursday. Rajon Rondo had 18 points and 12 assists in his first game back in Dallas after last season's debacle, and DeMarcus Cousins also had a double-double with 22 points and 13 rebounds. Sacramento had lost 22 straight regular-season games in Big D. San Antonio won a seventh straight Thursday, 94-86 over New Orleans. Kawhi Leonard had 30 points and 11 rebounds as the Spurs clinched a playoff spot for the 19th straight season. The Spurs have blown out the Kings twice this season and have won six in a row in the series at home.

Key trends: The Kings are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 6-2 in the previous eight.

Early lean: Spurs and under.

Hawks at Clippers (-4.5, 204.5)

Atlanta won't even have to switch locker rooms as it was at the Lakers on Friday. The Clippers won their third in a row Wednesday, 103-98 over Oklahoma City. Los Angeles was down 22 at one point and closed the game on a 26-5 run. Chris Paul had 21 points and 13 assists for Los Angeles, and DeAndre Jordan had 20 points and 18 rebounds. It was only the second time in Clippers history that they won a regular-season game in which they trailed by at least 17 points entering the fourth quarter. The Clippers won in Atlanta 85-83 on Jan. 27. The Hawks' Paul Millsap missed a good look in the final seconds. Atlanta turned it over 23 times.

Key trends: The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 6-0 in the Clippers' past six at home.

Early lean: Clippers and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Saturday's hot teams
-- Celtics won their last five games (2-5 last 7AU). Cleveland won seven of last ten games (3-6HF with Lue).
-- Washington won four of its last five games (3-6 last 9HF).
-- Detroit won four of its last five games (3-8AF).
-- Spurs won their last seven games (12-6 last 18HF).
-- Clippers won four of their last five games (7-5 last 12HF).

Cold teams
-- Utah lost eight of its last ten games (3-9 last 12AU). Pelicans lost four of last five games (1-6 last 7HF).
-- Indiana lost four of its last five games (3-1 last 4AU).
-- Knicks lost nine of their last 11 games (0-5 last 5HU).
-- Brooklyn lost four of its last six games (9-6 last 15AU). Minnesota lost five of its last seven games (3-9HF).
-- Sacramento lost four of its last five games (1-5 last 6AU).
-- Houston lost six of its last nine games (5-7AF). Chicago lost its last four games (2-3HU).
-- Atlanta lost six of its last nine games (6-6AU).

Series records
-- Pelicans won six of last nine games with Utah.
-- Cavaliers won five of last six games with Boston.
-- Pacers won three of last four games with Washington.
-- Knicks lost five of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Nets lost five of last eight games with Minnesota.
-- Spurs won nine of last te games with Sacramento.
-- Rockets won five of last seven games with Chicago.
-- Clippers lost four of last six games with Atlanta.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Utah-New Orleans games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Boston-Cleveland games stayed under.
-- Last six Indiana-Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last six New York-Detroit games went over.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in Minnesota games if it Wolves played night before.
-- Six of last eight Sacramento-San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Houston games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Clipper games stayed under the total.

Back/backs
-- Utah is 7-5 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Cleveland is 3-5-1 as a favorite if it played night before. Celtics are 9-5 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Wizards covered two of last seven gmes if they played night before. Indiana covered twice in last nine games if it played night before.
-- New York is 7-6 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 2-6 vs spread in last eight games if it played nite before. Nets covered one of last five games if they played night before.
-- Atlanta is 3-8 vs spread in lsst 11 games if it played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball betting TV guide: Must-watch, must-wager games
By STEVE MERRIL

It is the final week of the college basketball regular season as teams make their final push to be a part of the field for the NCAA tournament. Steve Merril has scoured the schedule for the must-watch, must-wager games for each day on the college hoops calendar so that you don’t miss any of the action.

Saturday: Louisville at Virginia
Where to watch: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Louisville will complete their regular season at Virginia on Saturday. The Cardinals will not play in the post-season, so they may treat this game as a tournament game. Louisville was embarrassed by 16 points at home by Virginia, so they are also playing with legitimate revenge. Virginia has been terrific all season, and this will be their final home game of the season. The Cavaliers are undefeated at home, so Louisville has a tough challenge ahead of them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Road underdogs rule Tobacco Road Rivalry when Duke faces UNC
By JASON LOGAN

Cameron Indoor Stadium and Dean E. Smith Center are two of the most hallowed and notorious home courts in college basketball. Oddsmakers take extra care when setting the spreads for the host teams in Durham and Chapel Hill, giving them a bit more respect than the standard 3-point home-court edge.

But when it comes to Duke versus North Carolina, head-to-head, those home courts don’t mean squat. Going back to the 1997-98 college hoops schedule, home teams in the Tobacco Road Rivalry are just 10-24 ATS (18-16 SU), with the visitor covering over 70 percent of the time.

No. 21 Duke is a 1-point home favorite hosting No. 8 North Carolina Saturday night, having gone just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home stands against the Tar Heels.

The underdog, most often the road team, in this long-standing ACC war has been the smart play whenever Duke and UNC collide. In their previous 40 meetings, the team getting the points is 24-16 ATS (11-29 SU) – covering at a 60 percent clip – and when those spread reach six points or higher, the underdog improves to 15-8 ATS (4-19 SU), a 65 percent ATS winner.

That tally includes six meetings in the ACC tournament. When you trim those postseason clashes (neutral sites) from the record, and just look at meetings inside Cameron and the Smith Center, Tobacco Road pups of +6 or bigger are 13-4 ATS – cashing in at an impressive 76 percent rate.

While the pointspread favorite has ended up winning 29 of those previous 40 meetings between Duke and UNC, its margin of victory is less than a single point, with faves outscoring dogs by an average score of 78.21-77.24.

As for betting Tobacco Road totals, the Over and Under have paid out fairly evenly since 1997-98. In their previous 40 matchups, Duke and North Carolina have produced a 19-21 O/U count, including a 9-8 O/U record in Durham. Saturday’s total is set at 159 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAB Top 25 betting cheat sheet

It's crunch time for many programs as their Conference Tournaments tip off in less than a week. The jockeying for position will be important on Saturday as teams look to build momentum heading into their playoffs. Here is a break-down of all of Saturday's Top 25 action on our betting cheat sheet.

Georgetown Hoyas at No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-14, OFF)

* The Hoyas are going to most likely miss the postseason for the first time since 2004, and a loss to the Wildcats would leave them with seven league wins for the first time since 2008-09.

* Kris Jenkins registered a career-high 31 points in Tuesday's 21-point victory against DePaul, but regular-season victories are relatively unimportant for a team looking to get out of the NCAA Tournament's opening weekend for the first time since 2009.

Trends:

* Georgetown is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Villanova is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
* Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Villanova's last five overall.

Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 18 Texas A&M Aggies (-4.5, OFF)

* Vanderbilt's 77-60 home win against the then-No. 8 Aggies started the late-season 7-2 run. Damian Jones - the reigning SEC player of the week - averaged 16.0 points on 66.3 percent shooting and 8.1 rebounds during the Commodores' recent run.

* The Aggies have won five straight and are tied with No. 19 Kentucky atop the SEC. Either Jalen Jones (15.7 points, 7.1 rebounds) or Danuel House (15.5 points) have led the Aggies - who are 16-1 at home - in scoring since the Vanderbilt loss.

Trends:

* Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Vanderbilt's last eight games overall.
* Under is 12-3 in Texas A&M's last 15 games overall.

Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (-14.5, OFF)

* Ohio State is knotted in a three-way tie for fifth with No. 13 Purdue and No. 15 Iowa, all a game behind the three second-place teams. The Buckeyes will be playing their third game since learning sophomore forward Jae'Sean Tate was lost for the season with a left shoulder injury.

* A regular-season Big Ten title is out of reach for Michigan State heading into its final game Saturday against visiting Ohio State, but the No. 3 Spartans still have a clear shot at runner-up. Michigan State enters the weekend locked in a three-way tie for second with No. 12 Maryland and Wisconsin.

Trends:

* Ohio State is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Michigan State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Ohio State's last five versus a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 7-1 in Michigan State's last eight versus Big Ten opponents.

No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Christian Horned Frogs (+13, OFF)

* The Sooners are one game behind West Virginia for second place in the Big 12 and need a win and a Mountaineers loss at Baylor on Saturday to earn the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament.

* The Horned Frogs are locked into last place in the conference and the No. 10 seed in next week’s tournament thanks to losses in six straight.

Trends:

* Sooners are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games.
* Horned Frogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-0 in Sooners last 7 vs. Big 12.
* Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 home games.

Louisiana State Tigers at No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats (-13, OFF)

* LSU's NCAA tournament hopes are suspect due to 12 defeats and the resume would be brightened with a second win over the Wildcats, who can claim the SEC crown with a victory and a Texas A&M loss to Vanderbilt.

* Kentucky freshman forward Skal Labissiere was billed as an impact recruit and finally displayed signs of life with 11 points and eight rebounds in Tuesday's 88-79 road victory at Florida - his first start since Dec. 19.

Trends:

* LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
* Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
* Under is 6-1 in LSU's last seven road games.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 17 Baylor Bears (-2, OFF)

* The Mountaineers are in second place in the conference and need a win to lock up the No. 2 seed in next week’s Big 12 tournament.

* A tight loss to the Oklahoma Sooners on Tuesday pushed Baylor back into a three-way tie for fourth place in the Big 12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Trends:

* West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 9-1 in Baylor's last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

Creighton Bluejays at No. 5 Xavier Musketeers (OFF)

* Check back later for more info.

Trends:

* Creighton is 4-0 ATS in the last meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings at Xavier.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

No. 7 Miami-Florida Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (+6, OFF)

* Miami is coming off perhaps its best road performance of the season, a 68-50 rout of Notre Dame, which had been 13-1 at home. Senior point guard Angel Rodriguez (19 points, four assists) orchestrated the offense while the Hurricanes' defense held the Fighting Irish to 34 percent shooting.

* Redshirt junior forward Zach LeDay, who leads the Hokies in scoring (15.1 points) and rebounding (7.7), is coming off a 20-point, 10-rebound game against Pittsburgh. "He's an OK player, but his heart is huge and all he cares about is winning," Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams told ESPN.

Trends:

* Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six versus Atlantic Coast opponents.
* Virginia Tech is 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Virginia Tech's last six games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Virginia Tech.

Stanford Cardinal at No. 16 Arizona Wildcats (-14, OFF)

* Coach Johnny Dawkins is making lineup adjustments again following the loss of senior point guard Christian Sanders, who has been suspended indefinitely for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Dawkins has used a different starting lineup in five of the last eight games and has been forced to rely heavily on sophomore guard Dorian Pickens.

* Wildcats guard Gabe York ended a shooting slump by scoring all 19 of his points in the second half against Cal as the Wildcats moved into a tie for third place with the Bears in the Pac-12.

Trends:

* Stanford is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record.
* Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last six versus Pac-12 opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Arizona's last 10 home games.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings at Arizona.

No. 10 Oregon Ducks at Southern California Trojans (+1, OFF)

* Oregon earned at least a share of the conference title for the first time since 2002 and the No. 1 seed for next week's Pac-12 Tournament with a 76-68 victory at UCLA on Wednesday.

* The Trojans hit the 20-win mark for the first time since 2009 and improved their NCAA tournament chances greatly with an impressive 81-70 victory over Oregon State on Wednesday.

Trends:

* Oregon is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.
* USC is 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.
* Over is 5-1 in Oregon's last six road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
* Over is 3-0-1 in USC's last four vs. Pac-12.

No. 20 Iowa St. Cyclones at No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-9.5, OFF)

* Cyclones leading scorer Georges Niang (19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds) went 0-for-6 beyond the arc in his final home game but still managed to post his fifth career double-double (17 points and 10 rebounds) and is shooting 66 percent from the floor over his last four games.

* Iowa State handed the Jayhawks their third setback in five games after winning 85-72 in Ames on Jan. 25, but the Jayhawks rattled off a 10-game winning streak thereafter to secure their 12th straight Big 12 regular-season title, going 9-1 ATS in that span.

Trends:

* Kansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
* Iowa State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Kansas.
* Under is 4-0 in Kansas' last four Saturday games.

No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 21 Duke Blue Devils (+1, OFF)

* The Tar Heels have won three of four since their loss to the Blue Devils and enter the weekend tied for the top spot in the ACC standings with Miami (Fla.).

* Despite trailing for most of the game, Duke rode a 23-point effort from Grayson Allen and a late block by Derryck Thornton to a 74-73 win at North Carolina on Feb. 18. Since then, the Blue Devils have split their last four games - with both losses coming on the road - but Cameron Indoor Stadium will be electric on Saturday.

Trends:

* North Carolina is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Duke.
* Duke is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 5-1 in North Carolina's last six road games.
* Under is 7-0 in Duke's last seven versus Atlantic Coast opponents.

No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines (Pick, OFF)

* The Hawkeyes sat at the top of the conference standings in mid-February but have faltered down the stretch by dropping five of their last six games, including an 81-78 loss to 11th-ranked Indiana Tuesday.

* Michigan finds itself on the wrong side of the bubble after dropping three of its last four games, including a 68-57 loss to Wisconsin Sunday. To make matters worse for the Wolverines, they announced that senior shooting guard Caris LeVert - who is projected to be a first-round draft pick in the upcoming NBA Draft - would be shut down for the rest of the season

Trends:

* Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six versus Big Ten opponents.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Michigan's last five games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

No. 25 California Golden Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5, OFF)

* The Bears are looking to regain momentum heading into the Pac-12 tournament after their seven-game winning streak came to an end with Thursday’s 64-61 loss to No. 16 Arizona. Jaylen Brown, one of the nation’s top freshmen, averages 15.5 points and 5.6 rebounds but was held to five points and a rebound in 15 minutes before fouling out against Arizona.

* Saturday’s contest marks the likely final home game for Sun Devils seniors Gerry Blakes, Willie Atwood and 6-foot-10 forward Eric Jacobsen, who has battled an ankle sprain in recent weeks but is averaging 13.5 points and eight rebounds over the last two contests.

Trends:

* California is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in California's last four road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Arizona State's last five Saturday games.

Louisville Cardinals at No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers (-6, OFF)

* The Cardinals, who will not participate in next week's conference tournament or the NCAA Tournament due to a self-imposed postseason ban, also have a chance at capturing a share of the ACC regular-season crown should they win and the Hurricanes and Tar Heels falter this weekend.

* After beginning league play with a 2-3 mark, Virginia has lived up to its reputation as a hard-nosed defensive squad during a 10-2 stretch, with perhaps its most impressive outing over that span coming in a 63-47 romp in Louisville on Jan. 30 that marked the largest margin of defeat the Cardinals have suffered in over four years.

Trends:

* Louisville is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.
* Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in Louisville's last 10 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Virginia's last nine games overall.

Colorado Buffaloes at No. 13 Utah Utes (-11, OFF)

* A win Saturday also would establish the 2015-16 Buffaloes as the winningest regular-season team in the program’s 115-year basketball history, breaking a tie they currently share with the 1996-97 and 2013-14 squads. Colorado is coming off home wins over No. 10 Arizona (75-72) and Arizona State (79-69) but is 2-6 in Pac-12 road games after losing its last four.

* With a win over visiting Colorado on Saturday and an Oregon loss at USC, No. 13 Utah would wind up with its first-ever share of the Pac-12 regular-season title.

Trends:

* Colorado is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Utah.
* Utah is 5-0 ATS in their last five versus Pac-12 opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in Colorado's last five road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
* Under is 10-2 in Utah's last 12 versus a team with a winning straight up record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Iowa State at Kansas**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore books had Kansas (26-4 straight up, 19-9 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown vs. Iowa St. in Lawrence. A win over the Cyclones would almost certainly guarantee the Jayhawks of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they lost their first game at the Big 12 Tourney.

-- Kansas is unbeaten in 15 home games this year, going 8-5 ATS. The Jayhawks have been single-digit home ‘chalk’ only three times, going 2-1 ATS.

-- Bill Self’s team has been cashing tickets galore in recent weeks, posting a 9-1 spread record in its last 10 games. KU is off perhaps its best performance of the season, smashing Texas by an 86-56 count Monday as a 3.5-point road favorite. Perry Ellis was the catalyst with 20 points, four rebounds and four assists. Ellis made 9-of-11 attempts from the field on a night when the Jayhawks shot 64.0 percent from the field and an astounding 11-of-16 from 3-point range (68.8%!). Frank Mason had 14 points and six assists compared to only one turnover, burying all three of his launches from long distance. Devonte’ Graham added 13 points, seven boards and a pair of steals.

-- KU is led by Ellis, the senior power forward who averages 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and shoots at a 52.3 percent clip from the field.

-- KU ranks 16th in the nation in scoring (81.7 PPG), eighth in field-goal percentage (49.3%) and second in 3-point percentage (43.0%).

-- Kansas is No. 1 in the RPI Rankings thanks to an incredible 8-3 record against the Top 25. KU is 13-3 versus the Top 50 and 17-3 against the Top 100. The Jayhawks swept Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech. In addition, they have home wins over Kentucky and Oregon St. Furthermore, they won by 13 at San Diego St. and knocked off Vanderbilt on a neutral floor.

-- Iowa State (21-9 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is No. 19 in the RPI, posting a 3-7 record against the Top 25, a 7-8 mark versus the Top 50 and an 11-9 record against the Top 100. The Cyclones have home wins over Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Chattanooga. They have beaten Colorado and Virginia Tech on a neutral court, in addition to winning at Cincinnati.

-- Steve Prohm’s first team at ISU has lost six of its 10 road assignments while going 5-5 ATS. The Cyclones have been road underdogs five times, producing a 2-3 spread record with one outright victory (at Cincy).

-- Since losing five of eight games, Iowa St. has responded with back-to-back home wins over Kansas State (80-61) and Oklahoma State (58-50). ISU failed to cover the number in Monday’s win over the Cowboys as a 14-point home favorite. Abel Nader hit 6-of-9 shots from the field and 3-of-5 from downtown en route to scoring a team-best 19 points. Georges Niang finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists.

-- Niang is one of the nation’s best players with the size to play inside and the range to knock down 3-balls in bunches. Niang is averaging 19.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is making 54.2 percent of his attempts from the field, 37.8 percent from 3-point range and 81.3 percent at the free-throw line.

-- Iowa State has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Kansas, including an 85-72 win in Ames as a 1.5-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The 157 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 161-point total. Monte Morris stole the show by tallying 21 points and nine assists without committing a turnover. Niang had 19 points and six rebounds, while Nader contributed 17 points, four steals, three boards and three assists. In the losing effort for KU, Ellis had a team-high 23 points.

-- This rivalry has seen the ‘over’ go 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. Also, the ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight encounters at Kansas.

-- The ‘under’ is 18-9 overall for KU, 8-5 in its home games. The Jayhawks have watched the ‘under’ hit at a 12-3-1 rate in their last 16 outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 14-12-1 overall for ISU, but the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in its road tilts.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**North Carolina at Duke**

-- North Carolina will be in revenge mode and also aiming to clinch at least a share of the ACC regular-season title when it invade Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on its arch rival Saturday in Durham. As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore betting shop had the Blue Devils listed as one-point favorites.

-- Duke (22-8 straight up, 13-14-2 against the spread) has 15 of its 17 home game while posting an 8-7 spread record.

-- Duke is led by sophomore shooting guard Grayson Allen, who is averaging team-highs in scoring (21.2 points per game), assists (3.5 APG), field-goal percentage (48.0%) and steals (1.3 SPG). The best talent on the team is future lottery pick Brandon Ingram, who averages 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He also has 42 blocked shots, while Marshall Plumlee (8.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has a team-best 44 rejections.

-- Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) remains ‘out’ with an injury. Mike Krzyzewski said “he still can’t run fluidly” earlier this week and indicated Jefferson may redshirt if he’s not ready to play for the NCAA Tournament.

-- Duke has won seven of its last nine games, including Tuesday’s 79-71 win over Wake Forest as a 16-point home favorite. Allen scored a game-high 30 points, grabbed five rebounds and has five steals. Ingram went for 15 points and 11 boards, while Plumlee finished with 13 points and 17 rebounds before fouling out.

-- Duke is No. 14 in the RPI Rankings, sporting a 5-6 record against the Top 50 and a 10-7 mark versus the Top 100. The Blue Devils have high-quality home wins over Virginia, Louisville and Indiana (by 20!), in addition to a win at UNC and a victory over VCU on a neutral court.

-- North Carolina (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) is No. 9 in the RPI, going 2-4 against the Top 25, 3-5 versus Top-50 foes and 12-6 against the Top 100. The Tar Heels’ best wins have come at home vs. Maryland, Pitt and Miami. They won at Syracuse and swept three non-conference games on a neutral court against Temple, Kansas State and UCLA.

-- Roy Williams’s team is led by senior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 16.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Johnson is hitting 61.6 percent of his shots from the field and has 36 blocked shots. Sophomore wing Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG) has a 93/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Senior point guard Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG) has had a disappointing campaign, but the streaky shooter is capable of getting hot at any time. Paige is draining only 33.6 percent of launches from downtown, though he has a solid 89/28 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Joel Berry II (12.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG).

-- When these schools met in Chapel Hill on Feb. 17, Duke won a 74-73 thriller in come-from-behind fashion as an 8.5-point road underdog. Allen dropped 23 points on the Tar Heels, including the go-ahead free throws with 1:09 remaining. Ingram produced 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. In the losing effort, Johnson had 29 points and 19 rebounds. Paige struggled mightily, missing all six of his 3-point attempts. Paige was 2-of-10 from the field, scored only seven points and had the same amount of turnovers (three) as assists (three). Jackson had 13 points and eight boards.

-- Since losing at Duke, UNC has won three of its four games while going 2-2 ATS. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse 75-70 Monday at home, but they failed to cover as 13-point ‘chalk.’ Johnson was the catalyst on his Senior Night with 14 points and 10 boards.

-- UNC is 11th in the nation in scoring (83.1 PPG) despite ranking 297th in 3-point percentage (31.6%).

-- North Carolina owns an 8-2 spread record in its last 10 games at Duke, but it hasn’t won outright at Cameron since 2012.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.

-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its 10 road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-2 for the Tar Heels in their last nine outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-12-2 overall for Duke, 9-7 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven in a row for the Blue Devils and nine of their last 10.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Chris Vernon is a sports radio titan in Memphis. I’m on his show every Friday during football season and occasionally on at other times to talk hoops and UFC. Verno tells me that Josh Pastner is actually safe at Memphis because the school can’t afford to hire a (quality) new coach because it’s a reach to even ante up the $10.5 million buyout to oust Pastner, whose team lost against Thursday night at Temple by a 72-62 count.

-- Michigan has won 14 of its 17 home games this year and the early numbers coming out offshore late Friday afternoon had it as a pick ‘em vs. Iowa in Ann Arbor. The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six games while going 0-6 ATS.

-- Kentucky is favored by double digits against LSU at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in SEC home games. They have won those contests by margins of 6, 10, 22, 19, 34, 19, 34, 10 and 25. The Tigers are 3-5 ATS with one outright win in eight games as underdogs. With that said, they won outright in their lone double-digit ‘dog spot (+10 at Vandy). Senior guard Keith Hornsby is listed as ‘questionable’ (hernia).

-- Alabama is a short underdog (3.5 offshore) at Georgia. Although the Crimson Tide has lost three of its last four games while going 0-4 ATS, it maintains a stellar record as an underdog. Avery Johnson’s team has been a ‘dog 18 times, compiling a 12-6 spread record with nine outright victories. ESPN.com’s Bracketolgoy guru Joe Lunardi’s currently has Alabama and Florida as a part of “Next Four Out.”

-- UF is favored by six at Missouri, so it can’t help itself on Saturday. Hell, a loss might even put the Gators on the NIT bubble.

-- Vanderbilt has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 86-69 win over Tennessee as a 13-point home ‘chalk.’ The Commodores have won six of their last seven with the lone defeat coming at Mississippi State, where they blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost on a buzzer beater. They have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 in their last eight outings. Kevin Stallings’ team head to College Station to close the regular season against Texas A&M. The Aggies have bounced back from a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS to win five in a row, going 4-1 ATS in the process. They have seen the ‘under’ cash at a frenetic 12-3 clip in their last 15 contests. Offshores had Texas A&M as a four-point home fave.

-- Ohio State is a double-digit underdog at Michigan State. The Buckeyes have taken the cash in both previous spots as double-digit ‘dogs. They own a 7-6 spread record with five outright wins as ‘dogs this season.

-- 5Dimes has posted odds for all the conference tournaments. UNC is the +230 ‘chalk’ to win the ACC at Verizon Center in Washington D.C. The next-shortest odds belong to Virginia (+270), Duke (+350), Miami (+425), Notre Dame (16/1), Pitt (22/1) and Syracuse (34/1).

-- The SEC looks like this: Kentucky (+145) Vandy (+310), Texas A&M (+375), Florida (12/1), South Carolina (17/1), LSU (18/1), Arkansas (30/1), Georgia (55/1), Ole Miss (65/1), Mississippi State (75/1), Alabama (85/1), Tennessee (85/1) and Auburn (500/1).

-- And the Big 12...Kansas (+140), West Virginia (+290), Oklahoma (+350), Iowa St. (+950), Baylor (11/1), Texas (14/1), Texas Tech (50/1), Kansas State (70/1), Oklahoma State (150/1) and TCU (800/1).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

IOWA STATE CYCLONES (21-9, 10-7 Big 12) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (26-4, 14-3 Big 12)

Allen Fieldhouse - Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas -8.5

No. 1 Kansas aims for an 11th straight win on Saturday while trying to avenge an earlier loss to No. 21 Iowa State.

The Cyclones (13-13-1 ATS overall) enter this contest with two straight home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State, but they have allowed a whopping 94.0 PPG during a current three-game road losing skid at Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia.

The Jayhawks (18-9 ATS overall) are 9-1 ATS during their 10-game win streak, which includes an 86-56 romp at Texas on Monday. That victory clinched their 12th straight Big 12 regular-season title, which matches UCLA's record run from 1967 to 1979. But Iowa State was the last team to hand Kansas a defeat, prevailing 85-72 on Jan. 25 in a game where both schools made at least 50% FG. That was ISU's fourth win in the past five games in this series (SU and ATS), but the school is just 2-11 in its past 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse.

The Cyclones are happy the new month is here, based on their perfect 5-0 record (4-0-1 ATS) versus Big 12 teams last March, which included a 70-66 conference championship win over KU. But the Jayhawks are 12-4 ATS following an ATS win this season, and have yet to lose at home (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS), where they are outscoring teams by 19.5 PPG.

Iowa State is an explosive offensive squad with 82.2 PPG (14th in nation) on a blistering 50% FG (2nd in D-I) and 38% threes (41st in nation). This is an average foul-shooting team at 70% FT (156th in D-I) that rarely gets to the line with a mere 475 free-throw attempts (337th in nation). However, the school has a strong 1.47 Ast/TO ratio (23rd in D-I) because it usually makes the extra pass (16.8 APG, 20th in nation) and rarely turns the ball over (11.4 TOPG, 57th in D-I). Iowa State does not have a very tough defense, allowing 74.5 PPG (243rd in nation) on 43.3% FG (171st in D-I) and 33.9% threes (145th in nation), but it stays out of trouble with the fewest amount of personal fouls in D-I (15.4 per game).

Two upperclassmen carry this program, senior F Georges Niang (19.3 PPG, 2nd in Big 12) and junior PG Monte Morris (14.3 PPG), whose stellar 4.1 Ast/TO ratio ranks fifth in the nation, while his 7.2 APG rank seventh in the land. The burly 6-foot-8 Niang rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his conference-leading 54% FG, plus 38% threes and 81% FT (6th in Big 12) this season. He also grabs 6.2 RPG, dishes out 3.2 APG, and has a current streak of 39 straight double-figure scoring games dating to last season. During his 11 straight contests of 14+ points, Niang recorded 19 points (8-of-17 FG) and six rebounds in the Jan. 25 win over Kansas. Morris also stepped up huge that game with 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds, but has gone cold in his past four contests with only 7.5 PPG on 10-of-27 shooting (37%).

Senior F/C Jameel McKay (11.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) has six double-doubles this season and has tallied 20 points and 27 rebounds (8 offensive) during his team's two-game win streak.

Junior G Matt Thomas (10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) is the school's best long-range shooter, as he is making 43% of his threes this season. Thomas has averaged 14.0 PPG (15-of-33 threes) in his past four contests, including a 20-point effort (4-of-5 FG) versus Kansas State on Saturday. Thomas had a well-rounded performance versus Kansas on Jan. 25 with 13 points (3-of-6 threes), six rebounds and four steals.

Senior F Abdel Nader (13.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has been heating up with 19+ points in four of his past five games (19.2 PPG), and also played well in the win over the Jayhawks with 17 points (6-of-9 FG) and four steals, one shy of his career high.

Kansas also knows how to put up points, generating 81.7 PPG (16th in nation) on 49% FG (8th in D-I) and 43% threes (2nd in nation) this season. The Jayhawks are very efficient with 15.9 APG (39th in D-I) and only 12.5 TOPG, which equals a strong 1.3 Ast/TO ratio (58th in D-I). The defense allows a pedestrian 67.5 PPG (73rd in nation), but limits opponents to 39% FG (19th in D-I) and 33% threes.

Kansas has four main scorers it relies on with F Perry Ellis (16.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), G Wayne Selden Jr. (13.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG), G Frank Mason III (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) and G Devonte' Graham (11.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG). After a subpar eight points versus Texas Tech last Saturday, Ellis responded with 20 points on 9-of-11 FG with four rebounds and four assists on Monday versus Texas. He also produced 23 points (10-of-18 FG) and five rebounds in the loss at Iowa State in late January. Selden wasn't as much of a factor in that defeat in Ames, scoring only 11 points on 1-of-6 threes. After lighting up Kentucky for 33 points on Jan. 30, Selden had a bitter cold February with only 8.3 PPG on 36% FG, 24% threes (10-of-42) and 46% FT (11-of-24) in nine games.

The junior Mason has scored at least 14 points in each of the past seven contests, where he's averaging 15.3 PPG. Mason also pumped in 16 points, six rebounds and three assists at ISU in the last meeting, but he also committed six turnovers, which are one shy of his career-high seven miscues at West Virginia on Jan. 12. Graham has been outstanding in running the offense with a 2.4 Assist/Turnover ratio this season (5th in Big 12), but had only seven points, four assists and three turnovers in recent loss in Ames.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (24-6, 13-4 ACC) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (22-8, 11-6 ACC)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Even

No. 17 Duke looks for a season sweep of No. 8 North Carolina when the rivals collide on Saturday in Durham.

The Tar Heels have been losing wager this season at 11-18-1 ATS overall (38%), and are coming off a rough February, where they were only 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. One of those defeats came on Feb. 17 as a 7.5-point home favorite versus the Blue Devils, who prevailed 74-73 by holding Carolina to just 27 points in the second half. But since that game, Duke is just 2-2 SU (1-2-1 ATS) with losses at Louisville and Pittsburgh, and an unimpressive 79-71 home win over 16-point underdog Wake Forest on Tuesday.

Although the Blue Devils are 8-2 SU in the past 10 meetings with four straight wins over the Tar Heels, the teams are an even 4-4 ATS in the past eight matchups. Bettors can point to negative trends on either side, as UNC is 1-5 ATS in its past six road games and 1-5 SU in the past six visits to Cameron Indoor Stadium. But Duke is only 2-5 ATS in its past seven home games, and is only 1-4 ATS in the past five home meetings in this rivalry.

North Carolina's offense is difficult to contain with 83.1 PPG (11th in nation) on 48% FG (24th in D-I), but it shoots a woeful 32% threes (291st in nation). The Heels are terrific at handling the basketball with 18.4 APG (5th D-I) and only 10.9 TOPG (29th in nation) for a 1.69 assist-to-turnover ratio (3rd in D-I). This team is always aggressive on the glass with a +7.7 rebounding margin (19th in nation) and 13.9 offensive RPG (13th in D-I), but this defense isn’t very tough, as it allows 70.5 PPG (142nd in nation) on 41% FG (76th in D-I) and a dreadful 36% threes (271st in nation).

Senior F Brice Johnson leads the team with 16.8 PPG (8th in ACC) and leads the entire conference in shooting (62% FG), rebounds (10.4 APG) and double-doubles (18). Johnson had a monster game versus Duke last month with 29 points (13-of-17 FG) and 19 rebounds, which included 18 points and 11 boards in the first half. With the Blue Devils still lacking a quality big man, Johnson should be able to dominate again on Saturday.

Senior PG Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG) hopes his final game in this rivalry goes much better than last month when he scored just seven points on 2-of-10 FG, including 0-for-6 threes. He hasn't been great since that game either with only 9.0 PPG on 12-of-40 FG (30%) in his past four contests. Paige has done a nice job handling the basketball though, with 12 assists and only two turnovers during the past two contests.

The Heels have three other main scorers in G Joel Berry II (12.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG), swingman Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.2 APG) and F Kennedy Meeks (9.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG). Berry is the best long-range shooter on the team at 38% threes, and has strung together four straight double-figure scoring games (13.8 PPG). However, this streak followed a horrendous 2-of-12 shooting night versus Duke. Jackson has netted at least 10 points in seven straight games (14.4 PPG), which includes 13 points and eight rebounds in the loss to the Blue Devils. Meeks is making 57% FG this season, and scored 10 points in just 13 minutes in Monday's win over Syracuse. He also chipped in six points and eight rebounds in the Feb. 17 meeting.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a robust 81.5 PPG (17th in nation) on 47% FG (58th in D-I) and 39% threes (20th in nation). This is a decent foul-shooting team (73% FT, 67th in D-I) that rarely turns the ball over (10.2 TOPG, 12th-fewest in nation), but has a weak +1.2 RPG margin (152nd in D-I) due largely to the absence of top rebounder Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who hasn't played since Dec. 5 due to a broken foot. This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with allowing 71.0 PPG (154th in nation) on 44% FG (227th in D-I) and 34% threes (163rd in nation).

In addition to Jefferson, four other Duke players average at least 11 points per game, led by G Grayson Allen (21.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.1 SPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 15 points in 19 straight games, and pumped in 30 points on Tuesday on 7-of-16 FG and 14-of-19 FT. He collected 23 points (7-of-18 FG, 8-of-10 FT), seven rebounds and two steals in last month's win in Chapel Hill. The 6-foot-9 freshman Ingram is also on fire, recording 13+ points in 22 of his past 23 games. This timespan includes a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds in the Feb. 17 win over North Carolina.

The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are freshman F/G Luke Kennard (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and junior G Matt Jones (11.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG). Kennard can hurt opponents from anywhere on the court, and loves getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 89% FT (80-of-90). He scored 15 points versus the Tar Heels two weeks ago, but was held without a point (0-for-4 FG) in Tuesday's win over Wake Forest. Jones has played well in three games back from injury with 10.7 PPG on 10-of-19 FG and 8-of-14 threes, and hopes to log a lot more than his nine minutes at UNC last month when he had zero points on 0-for-3 shooting before exiting with a badly sprained ankle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting March 5 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Unless you have a betting interest against them, don't you have to root for both Boston College and Rutgers on Saturday in their regular-season finales? Thank goodness the northeast portion of the U.S. has Villanova to root for because otherwise it has been a mess up there (St. John's is also terrible) college basketball wise. BC hosts Clemson on Saturday and Rutgers hosts Minnesota. Both the Eagles and Scarlet Knights are 0-17 in their respective conferences. The last time two teams from different power conferences finished winless in conference play in the same season was 1953-54.

No. 8 North Carolina at No. 17 Duke (-1)

ACC game at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN (of course it is). What, you thought I wouldn't preview UNC-Duke? North Carolina (24-6, 13-4) will know the Miami at Virginia Tech result by the time it takes the court at Cameron Indoor Stadium. If the Canes lose, UNC wins the outright ACC title with a win. If they both win, the Heels are the top seed for the ACC Tournament. If they both lose, we will see a three-way tie for the regular-season title (see Louisville-Virginia game) and I have no idea who would be the top seed. Obviously a Miami win and UNC loss gives the outright crown to the Hurricanes. Could this be the final UNC-Duke game involving Heels coach Roy Williams? There were some whispers he could retire after this season with an academic scandal at the school that partially involved the basketball team, plus Williams' health is in question after collapsing at a game last month. Williams says the retirement questions are hogwash.

Duke (22-8, 11-6) would assure itself a double-bye into the ACC Tournament quarterfinals with a win and still might get it with a loss. The Blue Devils are currently fifth, but remember that even if Louisville finishes ahead of Duke in the standings, the Cardinals are ineligible. Duke didn't play very well Tuesday, clearly looking ahead to this one, in beating visiting Wake Forest 79-71. ACC second-leading scorer Grayson Allen had 30 points. This will absolutely be the final home game for Duke superstar freshman Brandon Ingram as he will be one-and-done and probably the No. 2 pick in this summer's NBA Draft. He's averaging 16.9 points and 6.8 rebounds. It's Senior Night at Duke, but the only senior on the roster is Amile Jefferson, and he might redshirt. Jefferson hasn't played since early December due to a foot injury, and it doesn't appear likely he will get back for the NCAA Tournament.

Key trends: The Heels are 1-5 against the spread in their past six road games. Duke is 2-5 ATS in its past seven at home. UNC is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at Duke.

I'm leaning: Duke has won four straight and eight of the past 10 meetings, including a 74-73 thriller on Chapel Hill on Feb. 17 that went down to the final possession. But then don't most in this rivalry? I'll take the Heels here.

No.16 Iowa at Michigan (Pick'em)

Big Ten game at 8 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network. Iowa (20-9, 11-6) is tied for fifth in the Big Ten and still has that top-four seed and double-bye in the conference tournament to play for. It would take a win and some help. The Hawkeyes are playing their worst basketball of the season at the worst time. I thought they'd beat visiting Indiana on Tuesday, but Iowa lost a fourth straight game, 81-78. The Hawkeyes overcame a 14-point second half deficit and led 75-74 with 3:59 to play before making just one of their final 12 shots. Peter Jok missed an open 3-pointer from the corner at the buzzer. That clinched the Big Ten outright title for the Hoosiers. Iowa star Jarrod Uthoff was just 5-for-17 from the field.

Michigan (20-10, 10-7) definitely needs this one more as the Wolverines are listed among ESPN's "Last Four In" and in a First Four game against St. Bonaventure. UM got bad but probably not unexpected news this week when senior star Caris LeVert, who will be among his class honored before this game, was ruled out the rest of the season. He has played just one game since suffering a leg injury on Dec. 30. Guy had superstar potential following a breakout sophomore season but couldn't stay healthy the past two seasons. He'll still probably be a first-round pick in the NBA Draft, and getting healthy for that was part of his reasoning for shutting it down. Michigan lost at Iowa 82-71 on Jan. 17. Uthoff had 23 points. Iowa snapped a five-game losing skid in Ann Arbor last season with a 72-54 victory.

Key trends: Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its past six overall. UM is 6-2 ATS in its past eight after a loss. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Michigan is more desperate, so it is the choice.

No. 11 Louisville at No. 4 Virginia (-5)

ACC game at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. This is basically Louisville's national championship game because of course the program self-imposed a postseason ban last month in the wake of that sex scandal. By the time these schools take the court, they will know if sharing the ACC regular-season title is still doable. Miami needs to lose earlier in the day (at Virginia Tech) as does North Carolina. Only the winner of this game would share it. At least something good could come out of this season for Louisville (23-7, 12-5), which certainly has Final Four talent. Many believe this will be the final game at the school for embattled Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino. At Tuesday's home finale, Pitino seemed like a guy on the way out. Reports are the he would head to the NBA if so. Louisville could be facing heavier sanctions so it might be wise to leave now.

Virginia (23-6, 12-5) would be a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win here and then taking the ACC Tournament. It might not be the most talented team in the ACC (North Carolina is), but it's the best coached. The Wahoos avoided a trap game on Tuesday with a 64-57 win at Clemson. Their past two losses are by a combined four points at Duke and Miami. UVA has won 19 straight at home and ranks third nationally in scoring defense in allowing 60.1 ppg. The Cavs went to Louisville on Jan. 30 and delivered a 63-47 beatdown on Pitino's team. Louisville shot just 32.7 percent from the field and turned it over 18 times.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their past nine road games. UVA is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games.

I'm leaning: Virginia -- and whatever this small total will be, still go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Saturday's games..........

Kansas won last ten games since 85-72 loss at Iowa State Jan 25, when Cyclones rallied back down 7 at half. Jayhawks lost four of last five vs Iowa State, but ISU lost last ten visits here. Cyclones beat Kansas in last two Big X tourneys. Jayhawks' last five home wins were by 9+ points. Iowa State lost last three road games by 2-9-10 points, two of losses in overtime. Big X home favorites of 9+ points are 15-11 vs spread.

Baylor lost 80-69 at West Virginia Feb 6; they only turned ball over ten times but were 4-16 on arc. Bears are 6-2 vs WVU in Big X games, 2-1 in this gym, winning by 20-12 points. Mountaineers won three games in row, by 10-14-22 points; they lost four of last seven road games. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. Baylor lost three of its last four home games, with win in overtime over Iowa State.

USC lost 89-81 at Oregon Jan 21, Ducks' 11th win in row over SC, with last five wins here by 10-10-2-15-5 points Oregon won last four games, scoring 82.3 ppg; they're 4-4 on Pac-12 road. USC lost five of last seven games, but is 7-1 at home in Pac-12, with loss to Utah by 11. Oregon is #1 seed in Pac-12 tourney if they win this games. Pac-12 home teams are 19-13 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Vanderbilt made 13-29 on arc, whacked Texas A&M 77-60 Feb 4, with Vandy scored 1.22 ppp- they're 4-1 vs A& in SEC games, splitting pair of 11-point decisions here. Commodores won six of last seven games, but are 3-5 on SEC road- they scored 81.8 ppg in last four tilts overall. Aggies won last five games, with last two home wins by a basket each. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 16-9 vs spread.

Miami won eight of last nine games, moving into a 2-seed after wins vs Virginia/Louisville/ND in last three games; Hurricanes beat Virginia Tech 65-49 Feb 17- they trailed 22-21 in half in their fifth win in row vs Tech with teams splitting last four games played here. Hokies are 6-2 in ACC home games, losing to UNC/Louisville- they won four in a row overall. ACC home underdogs of 6+ points are 14-10 against the spread.

VCU is 3-1 vs Dayton in A-14 games, winning 80-66 in only visit here two years ago; Rams won five of last six games overall but lost two of last three road games. Dayton lost three of last five games, with wins by total of four points; Flyers lost last two home games, to Bonnies, URI. A-14 home teams are 14-18 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. VCU clinches top seed in A-14 tourney with a win here.

Duke won 74-73 at North Carolina Feb 17, ralling from down 8 at 6:49 mark; Blue Devils won last four series games, winning last three in this gym by 5-12-2 points. Carolina is 24-6, with all six losses by six points or less; they're 5-3 on ACC road. ACC home teams are 19-13 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Duke won last five at home after losing consecutive home games to Notre Dame/Syracuse.

Utah won six in row, 11 of last 13 games; they won 56-54 at Colorado Jan 8, after trailing 44-35 with 10:28 left. Utes won last four series tilts, other three by 11+ points. Buffs lost by 3-11-25 points last three times they visited Utah. Colorado lost its last four road games; their two wins on Pac-12 road were at Stanford, Wazzu. Utah won seven home games in a row. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 10-5 vs spread.

Long Beach State won eight of last nine games, beating Fullerton in last game at buzzer; 49ers upset Hawai'i 78-64 on road Jan 30, making 8-20 on road with +19 rebounding margin. Long Beach is 5-3 vs Hawai'i in Big West games, winning all three here, by 4-2-15 points. Rainbows are 7-0 on Big West road, with last three road wins by 6 or less points. Big West hosts are 4-11 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Missouri Valley tournament (St Louis)
Northern Iowa won 10 of last 11 games after a 10-11 start; Panthers are 4-2 in second game of MVC tourneys, 3-3 in last six games vs Wichita State, which s 85-21 in MVC last seven years, but only 11-5 in Valley tournament, winning it once, in '14. Shockers won their last six games. surviving a closer-than-it-looked 66-58 win over Loyola Friday. UNI won Arch Madness LY after losing in 1st round four years before that.

CAA tournament (Baltimore)
James Madison won CAA tourney in '13, is 1-4 in last five first round games, 3-9 in last 12. Dukes split pair with Wm&Mary this year- they blew 38-26 halftime lead in 68-62 road loss Jan 31, then avenged that at home with 71-65 win week ago. Tribe lost in CAA tourney final in last two years; they're 4-2 in last six first round games. W&M lost four of last six games. Unsure of status of JMU's Brown, who sat last week.

WCC tournament (Las Vegas)
Pepperdine lost seven of last eight games with San Francisco; Waves are 4-10 in WCC tourney last decade, 4-6 in first round tilts; road team won both their games with USF this year. Dons won 82-72 in Malibu Feb 18, after Waves won first meeting 98-84 Jan 16. USF won its first tourney game four of last five years- they lost last three games overall, giving up 87.7 ppg. Pepperdine lost five of its last eight games overall. .

Ohio Valley Conference tournament (Nashville)
UT-Martin is in OVC final for first time. Austin Peay is 7-2 in its last nine games overall, posting upsets last three nites (72-76-77 possession games), winning last two nites by total of 3 points. UT-Martin played last night and thats it. Skyhawks won nine of last ten games; they're 4-7 in tourney since '03, 21-13 overall in OVC under Schroyer- he has raised level of program in his two years. Peay last won this event in 2008. Three Peay starters played 41:00+ last nite, they're playing strictly on adrenaline here, playing for fourth night in a row.

 

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'College Basketball's Biggest Rivalry'

Regardless of records or rankings, the rivalry between the Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-14-1 ATS) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6, 12-17-1 ATS) remains one of the Biggest Rivalries in NCAA Basketball.

The Blue Devils 11-6 within the ACC with a vig-losing 8-8-1 record against the betting line edged Wake Forest 79-71 at home Tuesday but failed at the betting window as -16.0 point favorites. In their last game the Tar Heels were -13.0 point home chalk topping Syracuse 75-70 and enter the contest 13-4 in conference play with a money-burning 6-11 record at the betting window.

Saturday, the two ACC rivals meet for the second time this season at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. In the first meeting in Chapel Hill the Blue Devils showed a lot of grit earning a hard-fought 74-73 victory as +8.5 point road underdogs. With the win, the Blue Devils have now won four consecutive vs their bitter rival (3-1 ATS) and eleven of the past fourteen regular season encounters (8-6 ATS).

In the past fifteen of these regular season final games the Blue Devils are 7-8 SU/ATS overall, 4-3 (2-5 ATS) taking on Tar Heels in front of the Cameron Crazies. One final betting nugget, Blue Devils are a money-burning 4-13 against the betting line last seventeen as host in the series.

 

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NCAA Basketball Betting Preview

Providence at St John’s March 5, 12:30 EST

The final weekend of the regular season is upon us, and there are a number of teams still on the bubble. A win on the closing day of the season could mean the difference between getting into the Tournament or going home for the summer. The Providence Friars are a team very much on the bubble right now, but the general consensus seems to be that they have done enough to book their ticket.

That said a loss to the St. John’s Red Storm on Saturday could see them having to get into the postseason via a play-in game, which is something that they will definitely want to be avoiding at all costs. If the Friars were given the option to choose one Big East team to play against to definitely punch their ticket, St. John’s would likely be the choice, but you really never know how things are going to go when so much is on the line.

Why bet on Providence Friars

You have to say that the Providence Friars (21-9, 9-8) have responded well to the pressure of being on the bubble. They have picked up wins in their last two games, and now essentially control their own destiny heading into the final game of the regular season. St. John’s are a team that they should be able to handle, but there has to be a little element of doubt when you consider that the Friars have lost their last 4 road games. Jumping out to a solid early start should help calm the nerves, and that is what they were able to do in their last meeting with the Red Storm, which ended up being an 83-65 blowout win for the Friars. Providence are averaging 73.6 PPG, and are giving up 69.6 PPG so far this season.

Why bet on St. John’s Red Storm

While the St. John’s Red Storm (8-22, 1-16) would love to play the role of the spoiler on Saturday, it’s tough to see how they are going to be able to do that. Since December 18 of last year, the Red Storm have only managed to win a single game, which was a rather surprising 80-65 manhandling of DePaul. They have not come anywhere close to that level of play since then, and they come into this one looking like something of a sacrificial lamb. The only real hope they have is that the Friars will crack under the pressure of needing the win, but I just don’t see that happening. The Red Storm are averaging 66.8 PPG, and are giving up 76.0 PPG.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Friars are well aware of the importance of this game, and I believe that will actually help them here, as they will not come in overconfident. I like them to win this one in double digit fashion.

Providence Friars 75 St. John’s Red Storm 65