At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
I seriously doubt we will be able to top last weekend at Gulfstream Park, but we will give it a shot and we have a solid 13-race betting card on tap.
Last Saturday among the exactas we hit were payoffs of $283.20 and $537.40. We then came back with an exacta that paid $326.80 on Sunday. The meeting is now four months old and we hit our three biggest exactas within a 24-hour period.
In addition to heading to Florida I have my full card report for Aqueduct and my Best Plays includes the stakes action from Oaklawn Park.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby goes through Hot Springs today with a full field headed to the gate in the $900,000 Rebel (G2) including seven runners that exit the local prep, the Southwest (G3).
That race was won by Suddenbreakingnews with a breathtaking last to first victory. The colt is currently the fifth choice in future Kentucky Derby betting at Sportsbook.ag at 12-1.
The colt will have to break from the outside post and negotiate his way through another large field, this time at a light price. As you can see below I go with the Bob Baffert trained Cupid.
Baffert has won the Rebel in five of the last six years including last year with American Pharoah. The well-bred son of Tapit out of a mare that has dropped three stakes winners still looks as if he has a ton of upside. We just may see it this afternoon.
Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 OClm $75,000N1X (12:35 ET)
#2 Boalt Hall 5-2
#4 Unbridled Daddy 3-1
#7 Mystic Sky 7-2
#9 Rappel 8-1
Analysis: Boalt Hall was a good looking maiden winner in his debut on the main track here going seven furlongs. Three he beat that day have come back to graduate in their next starts. He should have no problem making the switch to turf. The $360,000 Keeneland purchase is by Scat Daddy and the first foal to race out of a Yonaguska mare. Pletcher is 20% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf.
Unbridled Daddy is also sent out by Pletcher. He broke his maiden at the Spa on turf last summer in his second career start and then was a good third in the With Anticipation (G2) and then was 10th in the Bourbon (G3). He has been prepping at Palm Beach Downs for his returns here for a barn that is 22% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. This is a good spot for his return.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,7,9
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,7,9 / 2,4,7,8,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Clm $10,000 (4:20 ET)
#3 Dighton 7-2
#1 Aleander 5-2
#2 American Progress 2-1
#7 Native Hero 10-1
Analysis: Dighton made a mild late run to finish third last out against $12,500 foes and was claimed out of the race by the Pino barn that s 24% winners first off the claim. He should get a good pace set up here and this guy owns back numbers versus tough that would make him tough here. He has landed in the exacta in 5 of 11 trips in his career on the inner track.
Aleander tracked the early pace from the inside behind foes, had to steady waiting for some running room and did not have enough punch left late when clear, coming up a half-length short. he was 3 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He is 0 for 6 on the inner track with three runner up finishes and does have a habit of landing for minor shares in his career.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 11 The Spectacular Bid (5:35 ET)
#4 Morning Fire 5-2
#2 Tiger Blood 7-2
#7 Epic Journey 3-1
#8 Dan the Go to Man 6-1
Analysis: Morning Fire cuts back to a sprint after setting the early fractions and weakening to finish third last out in the Sam F. Davis (G3), beaten 5 3/4 lengths. The winner Destin came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his next outing. This guy was a sharp winner two back in the seven furlong Pasco and always fires, the lone out of the money finish coming when he was second in a stake at Delaware Park last summer only to get DQ'd to seventh. The cut back in distance here will suit.
Tiger Blood has not been tested in two starts at Tampa Bay Downs and gets a class test here. He broke his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths in his debut and then beat Alw-1 optional claimers by 5 1/2 lengths in his last start without being fully extended. He looks capable of stepping up and being in the hunt in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,7,8 / 2,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
OP Race 10 The Rebel G2 (6:06 CT)
#4 Cupid 7-2
#6 Siding Spring 20-1
#12 Suddenbreakingnews 3-1
#5 Discreetness 12-1
Analysis: Cupid faces winners for the first time here after breaking his maiden last out in his third career start, earning a solid Beyer that fits here and he earned the top last out BRIS speed fig. The colt is saddled by Baffert who has won this race in five of the last six editions and is deadly when shipping in to Hot Springs. Dating back five years the trainer is 13 for 31 (42%). Two back the colt ran a good second to Denman’s Call sprinting, that runner coming back to run a decent third in the San Vicente (G2), beaten four lengths by the undefeated Nyquist, the current second choice in early Derby betting. He looks capable of moving forward in just his second start around two turns. The $900,000 Keeneland purchase has a nice pedigree, by Tapit out of the stakes placed Pretty ‘n Smart who has dropped seven other others and three are stakes winners, top earner Heart Ashley ($395,898).
Siding Spring was the pacesetter in the Southwest (G3), breaking from the 11 post, carving out a sharp pace and weakening to finish fifth. It was his first start since running 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he was beaten five lengths. He is eligible to move forward off that effort and runner son or near the pace fare well over the main track here at this distance. He broke his maiden in his debut on turf and then ran a good third in the Bourbon (G3) before shifting to dirt. He is in good hands with the Casse barn and is going to be a generous price here.
Suddenbreakingnews drew a tough spot in the Southwest and it did not matter, going from last to first with a seven wide run and he finished up strongly in the stretch to win by 2 ¾ lengths. He draws a tough post again, but is going to get some pace to run at but also needs to work out another trip at a short price. The Von Hemel trainee has not run a bad one and will be flying late, but our top pair here likely are going to offer more value for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,5,6,12
TRI: 4,6 / 4,5,6,12 / 4,5,6,10,12
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #3 Street Shark 15-1
R3: #4 Momameamaria 12-1
R4: #9 The J Y 8-1
R7: #7 Native Hero 10-1
Good luck today!
