Saturday 3/14/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 WAKE UP MAMA (ML=7/2)


WAKE UP MAMA - This horse ran off the board at Parx Racing in the last race on a track listed as good. She should improve right here on a non-sloppy track. This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in the money. I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per race in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SILVER MONEY (ML=5/2), #1A SLEW BY THE FOOL (ML=4/1), #1 APPEALINGMAGIC (ML=4/1),

SILVER MONEY - Never really did much at all in the last race on September 30th. Hard to wager on in today's race. Tough to wager on any questionable contender in a short distance affair if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. SLEW BY THE FOOL - Tough to like the downward flow (35/24/7) of speed figures. APPEALINGMAGIC - Difficult to put your cash on this speedball. Too much early zip in the race. This filly registered a speed figure in her last race which likely isn't good enough today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 WAKE UP MAMA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #4 - AQUEDUCT - 2:47 PM EASTERN POST


The Correction Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#4 ISABELLE
#5 AIREOFDISTINCTION
#1 EXPRESSION
#2 MAMDOOHA

Just for your information folks ... The Correction Stakes is named for the filly owned by R.W. Walden. Between 1872 and 1898, Mr. Walden had 200 winners for earnings of $1,367,796. Correction ran for the stable of J.A. and H.A. Morris, a stable that accounted for 75 of those winners. Here in the 72nd running of this stakes event, #4 ISABELLE has nice overall speed for this 6,0 furlong sprint, but has also posted a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" in her last five starts. Jockey Junior Alvarado has been in her irons on two previous occasions, winning 'em both, en route to a +223% return on investment in the process, and is back today for his 3rd ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win." #5 AIREOFDISTINCTION" has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in four straight starts, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping the Rebel
By Anthony Stabile

Anthony's Eleven (3/13/15)

Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 141 on May 2nd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Anthony's Eleven (3/6/15)

Rank Horse Jockey Trainer Next Race Derby Points
1 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett Arkansas Derby (4/11 at OP) 22
2 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 70
3 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 24
4 Frammento John Velazquez Nick Zito Blue Grass (4/4 at KEE) 10
5 Upstart Jose Ortz Rick Violette, Jr. Florida Derby (3/28 at GP) 36
6 Imperia Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin Spiral (3/21 at Turfway) 4
7 Prospect Park Kent Desormeaux Clifford Sise, Jr. Santa Anita Derby (4/4 at SA) 20
8 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker Louisiana Derby (3/28 at FG) 71
9 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan Sunland Derby (3/22 at SP) 8
10 Frosted Irad Ortiz, Jr. Kiaran McLaughlin Undecided 13
11 Classy Class Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin Wood Memorial (4/4 at Aqu) 13


While I’ll talk about the lone stop on the Derby Trail this week, the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, I’ll take some time this week to talk a bit about a couple of glaring omissions from “Anthony’s Eleven.” Let’s start with the action on the track.

Worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner, the 1 1/16 miles Rebel features the return of juvenile Eclipse champion American Pharoah. After failing to fire in his debut as the 7-5 favorite at Del Mar, trainer Bob Baffert removed the blinkers and ran his charge in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, a race he won in gate-to-wire fashion comfortably by almost five lengths.

Less than four weeks later, American Pharoah made his first start on conventional dirt and around two turns a winning one, taking the G1 Front Runner at Santa Anita by 3 ¼ lengths, instantly making him one of the favorites for the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile.

Unfortunately, it would be the last we’d see of American Pharoah in what turned out to be a championship two-year-old campaign as injury forced him to scratch from the Juvenile and to the sidelines. He finally returned to the worktab in early February and seems to have his six rivals terribly overmatched. He’ll break from post 4 under Victor Espinoza as the 1-2 morning line favorite.

Five of the six set to face the champ sport just a maiden win on their resumes so we’ll discuss the rest of the bunch starting from the rail, where The Truth or Else, fittingly ridden by Calvin Borel, will start from. Trained by Ken McPeek, The Truth or Else finished third in both the G1 Champagne and G2 Nashua last year before adding Lasix in his seasonal bow in the G3 Southwest last out, a race in which he came from far back to lead briefly before getting gunned down by Far Right in the last few jumps.

Madefromlucky is looking for his third consecutive score and second since moving into the Todd Pletcher barn as he ships in from Florida for his stakes debut. Ridden by John Velazquez, Madefromlucky lost his first three starts last year, all at Monmouth before breaking his maiden in late December and taking an entry level allowance contest at Gulfstream in his last pair.

Tizwonderfulcreek makes his third start off of nearly a five month layoff and is seeking his first dirt win from five tries. He ended last year with a tally in his lone turf try. Belen Quinonez has the call for Tim Martin.

Bold Conquest returned from a similar layoff last out when he closed ground a bit too late to finish fourth in the Southwest, his first start since finishing second and third, respectively, in the G3 Iroquois and G1 Breeders’ Futurity. Ricardo Santana, Jr. rides for his main client, Steve Asmussen.

The Chris Richard trained Paid Admission broke his maiden in his fourth start when the blinkers were removed. Second in an allowance/optional claimer last out, Paid Admission was off the board in the Smarty Jones, his lone stakes attempt. Shaun Bridgmohan rides.

Sakima was put up via disqualification in his maiden tally two back before finishing fourth in an allowance contest last out. Ramon Vazquez rides for the connections of Far Right, including trainer Ron Moquett.

As for “Anthony’s Eleven,” two names you don’t see in the above table are American Pharoah and Todd Pletcher.

Plenty of my colleagues think I’m crazy for not giving either of them any play or respect, and that’s fine. I don’t mind playing the role of contrarian, especially when they’ll both take plenty of action at the windows.

American Pharoah will likely win the Rebel by a stones’ throw but what will it prove? He’s a two time G1 winner against a bunch of maiden winners. But looking ahead, do you really want a horse in the Derby that will have just two preps, giving him five races overall, who’ll be making his third start off of over a five month layoff going 1 ¼ miles? Add in the fact that he’s been sidelined with injury and is trained by a guy in Baffert who has seen countless horses fall off the Derby Trail in the past few years and, to me, it’s a no-brainer, and we haven’t even discussed the fact that he’s certain to be one of the favorites come the first Saturday in May.

When it comes to Pletcher, I think his Derby record of 1 for 40 would speak for itself but apparently it doesn’t. I’m even skeptical of his lone win, in 2010 with Super Saver as he LOVED a wet track and had a perfect, ground saving trip under Calvin Borel while horses like Ice Box and Paddy O’Prado received horrendous rides and the best of the crop, Lookin at Lucky, drew the rail and was essentially wiped out past the stands the first time.

This year, Pletcher’s top three hopes will have just two preps on their way to Louisville. Daredevil was second in the G2 Swale going seven furlongs. He’ll likely run next in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Carpe Diem was an impressive winner of the G2 Tampa Bay Derby going two turns and is pointed towards the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on 4/4. Far From Over overcame a bad start to win the G3 Withers last out, then skipped the G3 Gotham on 3/7 to await the G1 Wood Memorial on 4/4.

When I take the record and plan of attack into consideration, as well as likely short prices on his runners, looking elsewhere for a Derby winner seems like the right choice for me.

Prep Play of the Day

Like I’ve said, American Pharaoh looks pretty unbeatable in the Rebel so we’ll try a $40 exacta using him over Bold Conquest and a $5 exacta boxing those two, just in case. Good luck!!!

Bankroll: $150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have two Eclipse Award winners competing in separate races at Oaklawn Park today, and they are both prohibitive favorites in their respective races.

American Pharoah won the Eclipse Award for top juvenile last year and makes his much-anticipated three-year-old debut in the $750,000 Rebel Stakes (G2), a Derby points race.

The Bob Baffert trainee was the betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby from last fall until last Saturday night when his stablemate Dortmund dropped to 6-1 after winning the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita to remain undefeated.

American Pharoah has not started since Sept. 27 when he won the Frontrunner (G1). Foot issues put him on the shelf just days before he would have been the betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

Earlier on the card Untapable, who won the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old filly, will make her first start of 2015 as the heavy favorite in the $300,000 Azeri (G2).

She won four Grade 1 races last year including the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her lone loss was a fifth place finish against the boys in the Haskell Invitational (G1).

The Steve Asmussen trainee takes on five seemingly overmatches foes in the Azeri, and her price will probably go from her 1-2 morning line to 1-5 or possibly 1-9.

I just could not find any of her foes that have a legitimate shot of beating her. My second choice in the race is Sugar Shock, who is 10-1 on the morning line. The filly won the six-furlong American Beauty in her last start and has won four of her five starts over the Oaklawn Park main track.

Saturday’s stake at the Big A is the $100,000 Correction which drew a compact field of six fillies and mares going six furlongs on the inner track. It goes off as the fourth race on the card and is part of the early Pick 5.

It is a wide-open race with the comebacking Mamdooha worth a look if she goes off near her 5-1 morning line. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee makes her first start since winning the Cicada last March on the inner track.

The barn has been on fire with runners coming back off the bench, hitting at a 38% clip with horse returning from a +180 day layoff. She has won four of her five starts and is perfect in two starts on wet tracks and there is rain in the forecast in New York today.


Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500N3L (1:20 ET)
7 Grand Strand 4-5
5 Ausable River 12-1
1 Harlan's Hello 6-1
8 Born in Brooklyn 5-1

Analysis: Grand Strand was beaten just a neck last out at this level in a runner up finish. The Jacobson trainee came with a five wide bid, took over the lead and herded out a foe, getting bumped around late and coming out on the wrong end of the photo. He was 5 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. He beat non-winners of two here three back going a mile in his first go for the barn. He catches a slow group here and looks tough at a very chalky price. He is 0 for 3 with a third on wet tracks but does have a solid off track pedigree and we have rain in the forecast today.

Ausable River stretches back out to a route after tracking the early pace and coming up short in the stretch in a fifth place finish. He finished a decent third and was placed second via a DQ two back. Both of his wins have come at today's distance. The barn is 15% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8
TRI: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,2,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $57,000N1X (4:48 ET)
7 Sea Raven 2-1
3 Island Therapy 8-1
2 Majestic Guy 20-1
9 Huge Asset 5-2

Analysis: Sea Raven stumbled badly coming out of the gate which left him last away, made a good middle move and had the lead heading for home but could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at this level. He makes his third start of his current form cycle for the Gyamarti barn He broke his maiden in the slop at the Spa last summer and likely won't mind if the rains come.

Island Therapy stretches back out to a route after making a mild late bid while wide to finish fourth last out going six furlongs. The runner up and third place finisher both exited that race to win next out. Two back the Gullo trainee ran second to repeat winner Read the Mirage, who beat $25,000 non-winners of three next out on Feb. 8. The barn is light moving runners from sprint to route, hitting at just a 4% clip rate but has been sending out live runners at the meeting.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 3,7 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,7,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:

OP Race 8 The Razorback Hcp G3 (4:57 CT)
1 Tapiture 5-2
5 Race Day 7-2
3 Midnight Hawk 6-1
7 Ride On Curlin 3-1

Analysis: Tapiture makes his first start since running a good second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) last fall behind Goldencents. Two back he ran a good second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) behind Bayern, who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). The colt ran well here last year, taking the Southwest (G3) and running a game second in the Rebel (G2). He is bred to handle a wet track if the rains come. The Asmussen barn is 17% winners with runners coming back of a 61-180 day layoff.

Race Day ran huge beating Alw-2 optional claimers tow back earning a 109 Beyer and showed last out it was no fluke as he ran a 106 winning the Fred Hooper (G3) in his stakes debut, checking in a good third beaten a half-length. The winner was Valid, who came back to finish a good third in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) in his next start on March 7. He broke his maiden on a wet track and is bred to like it.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #5 Ausable River 12-1
R2: #7 English Garden 10-1
R5: #10 Wild Ham 8-1
R7: #2 Mineral Water 8-1
R8: #3 Island Therapy 8-1
R8: #2 Majestic Guy 20-1
R9: #2 Moonlight Party 8-1
R9: #6 Onthecurve 8-1
R10: #4 Solly’s Dream 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 3/14 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (8 - 13 / $29.60): RED HOT ART (5th)

Spot Play: ANTS INER PANTS (2nd)


Race 1

(1) SUBMIT U three-year-old pacer makes his first start off a long layoff but looks to have a lot of upside off a nice qualifier. (6) BINGO PRINCE picks up a significant driver change and has shown a decent burst of speed. (4) SHIFTANEXTGEAR pacer owns some ability but races really green; command a price.

Race 2

In a field with few contenders (9) ANTS INER PANTS owns all the back class but the mare could be pushed early from the outside. If the veteran trotter can work her way to the top she could be tough to beat. (7) VIPER BLUE CHIP nice-looking trotter needed his last start and should show a lot of improvement against a suspect bunch. (8) MY FUNKY FARKLE mare looks to be a different horse than the last few seasons; fires early.

Race 3

(5) CONTROL TOWER didn't break a sweat last out and looks to make a lot of money this year; short price. (6) SKYWAY BILLY gelding makes his third start back off a long layoff and should be ready for a better effort. (2) DIXIE'S BOY pacer owns a big brush when timed right but has had trouble hanging late in his miles; use underneath.

Race 4

(4) JENNA W RIVNDEL looks terrible on paper but the mare actually had some pace on the rail last out. The six-year-old finds a weak and inconsistent field and will offer a monster price. (3) ONE JAZZY LADY needed her last start but needs a smooth trip; use caution. (9) GABBY REI four-year-old pacer broke a long losing streak impressively last week flying by the field. The mare will be tough to beat with a similar effort but will likely offer low value and has a poor win percentage.

Race 5

(1) RED HOT ART nice-looking pacer kicked home impressively last out and will be tough to beat with anything close to that effort. (8) DAKOTA ROADSTER pacer is likely the only threat to the top choice and will be used aggressively. (4) LOVE YOU BAD gelding makes his second start of the year and has room to improve.

Race 6

(2) CAMWISER is capable of throwing in a clunker at any time, however the pacer has been tons the best against similar in his last two starts. (4) MAJOR MALE is always capable in against this bunch; threat. (6) FORTUNE DOR gets a positive driver change and can hit the ticket at a price with some racing luck.

Race 7

(1) STATE STREET LIZ mare looks to be in line for an ideal trip up close. (6) FEEL LIKE DANCING has been razor sharp and could be freshened up for another good effort; threat. (2) ALWAYS ABOUT KATEY Indiana champion has over eight-hundred thousand in earnings but usually takes a few starts before she gets rolling. One of these weeks she will pop with a big mile.

Race 8

In a fairly wide open race (2) BEST MAN HANOVER has been outkicked in his last two but was loaded with pace in his victory a few weeks back. (6) IAM BONASERA talented pacer needs to be closer turning for home but can out close the field with a good setup. (8) FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY has been razor sharp in his last two monster efforts. If the eight-year-old pacer races like last week its lights out again.

Race 9

(6) REAL OR MAGIC put in a super first effort off the bench and should have more to offer second start back. (3) CAM B ZIPPER gets sent out for capable connections dropping in class. (4) CRANKIN' IT UP pacer is the sleeper in the race coming off a scratch. The five-year-old gets sent out for a hot barn and can upset if ready.

Race 10

(3) MAJOR MONET classy pacer was a game winner last start and is right back in at the same level. (4) FASHION DELIGHT has just been racing evenly but drops in class against easier. (5) PREEMPTIVE BID just missed to the top selection last out and was the driver's choice.

Race 11

(9) FLYING ROCKET drops back in for a tag and should be considered the horse to beat. (2) MONOPOLY MAN gets sent out for a trainer that is 0 for the year but has been knocking on the door. (4) BELL VALLEY BILL is always a threat at this level and does his best work from off the pace.

Race 12

(3) COTTON EYED JOE was the driver's choice of three and has been racing better than his lines indicate. (7) TOUCH THE ROCK was good first start back after the break but has been down hill since. The pacer takes a significant drop in class and can win with a good effort. (6) SVAYA KNOWS doesn't win often but is versatile in a field full of question marks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/14 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

4,5/7,8,9/1,7/1,4,5 = $36

MEET STATS: 102 - 301 / $553.40 BEST BETS: 14 - 29 / $82.30

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 28 / $59.20

Best Bet: ETRUSCAN HANOVER (2nd)

Spot Play: BAX OF LIFE (5th)


Race 1

(4) J JS DELIVERY makes his first start for Robinson and will be looking for some quick results in the second leg of this series. Expect a big speed try. (1) DIALAMARA left, yielded, then blew by his opponents again in the lane. He's the one to beat. (7) CONVERSATION BOY closed a big gap late and now gets his regular pilot back. He should be closing for a good share here.

Race 2

(6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER has looked like a new horse the past two weeks. The new racing strategy obviously agrees with him; top call and Best Bet. (5) CRACKER ZACK wasn't far back of the choice after leaving hard for the lead early. He is the main threat. (2) POWER MOVE was claimed for the second consecutive week but it remains to be seen if he will have the same success he had when he was undefeated in Moreau's barn last month.

Race 3

(4) NIRVANA SEELSTER was a nice third vs. a streaking winner that moves into the Preferred tonight. He should be all systems 'go' here back in NW4. (3) URBANA BAYAMA couldn't chase down a leader on a mission but may get a more favorable pace set up here. (5) TWOMICKEYTRIP dropped and popped in a big way but is unlikely to get the same unchallenged trip tonight.

Race 4

(5) GRANDE SEELSTER debuts in high % trainer Adams barn off some nice wins at Northfield and a sharp qualifier. McNair will have this one blasting and likely lasting. (4) CURATOR has returned to the races in great form and looks much sounder than he did when he was laid up; top contender. (1) FRIDAYNIGHTLIGHT has been racing well out of town and should get a good trip here near the front.

Race 5

(7) BAX OF LIFE was really flying in the last 1/16th of her season debut and should get a more aggressive steer here at a square price; top billing and Spot Play. (9) NORTHERN ESCORT drop backs to a class where he is an obvious contender and likely leaves hard for the lead or position near the front here. (8) JUSTCALLMERONALD got Moreau, Lasix and a win last week. He steps up but can share at a better price.

Race 6

(1) SUMMER CAMP may have been best last week but the pocket sitter got a good jump on him and was gone in the lane. He is playable at a decent price here. (7) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY left fast, sat pocketed through wicked fractions, then charged by late. He's the one to beat. (4) NICKLE BAG stalled first-up in wicked fractions but is still quite capable with a better trip.

Race 7

(1) MR DENNIS has been a different and much more productive horse in Menary's barn. The step up isn't dramatic and he gets major post relief; top call. (4) HIT AND GIGGLE A moves into Moreau's barn off the claim which makes him very dangerous, obviously. (5) COUGAR HALL drops back to a level where he is dangerous; using on pick 4's.

Race 8

(5) SPINFINITI has paced two excellent miles the past two weeks only to come up against monster winners. There isn't any in here that look that scary. He can get the job done here. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT drops back to the class where he last won and draws inside. He looks the main danger. (8) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS has got enough money off his card the last three weeks to take a class plunge from the Preferred. He is a top contender but is also likely to be overbet here on the drop.

Race 9

(2) BURNIN MONEY shows two wins in a row at the bottom of his chart then three beats to white-hot Fearless Man whom he escapes here. Seems simple enough; top call. (1) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY also drops out of the same races and looks primed for a top effort; the main danger. Same deal for (5) WATKINS who is more than capable of threatening and likely driven more aggressively by Filion here.

Race 10

(4) MACHNBYRD PRINCESS had speed both early and late when winning for trainer Robinson with his first starter in several years. She can double up here with similar tactics. (7) REGALLY READY has gone two big trips since exiting the Ontario Girls series and was unlucky not to win one. She can threaten again and win here with the right trip. (1) MISS COCO LUCK will get out much better from an inside post and should get a good share. Keep on deeper pick 4 tickets.

Race 11

(2) CHAMPAGNE PHIL closed a big gap after trailing early from an outer post. The move inside gives him a much better chance at a forward placing and he's beaten better; top call. (6) JOSHUA MY BOY cut some big fractions and understandably tired late. He can be much closer with a more patient drive. (7) AMBLE OVER HANOVER races best for Jamieson who he picks back up here. He should be live at a good price. (9) MONTE CHRISTO is horribly win-shy but a great bet for the bottom of exotics tickets typically. (8) FUTURE MILLION has raced much better the past two and can get a small share here, too.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 3/14 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 120 - 471 / $676.50 BEST BETS: 15 - 39 / $57.80

Best Bet: DOCTOR BUTCH (6th)

Spot Play: FREDDY DAY HANOVER (12th)


Race 1

(1) MCNICKELS MCDIMES chased a quick pace from an outside post last Friday. He should have an easier time securing position from the pylons. (6) ROCKAHOLIC closed well from post 9 in his first start for this barn and now moves in a few slots. (4) NF DRUM ROLL pulled off a shocker last week with a quick brush from Gingras. (3) TRIPLE MAJOR & (2) GRATIAS DEO are clear exotics threats.

Race 2

(2) ROCKEYED OPTIMIST tackles a decent group of 4-year-olds but seems a step or two faster right now. (3) ROCK OUT seems likely to control the action and could upset if allowed to get away cheap on the front. (4) CAVIART LUCA capitalized on a good trip to win his 2015 debut. Son of Somebeachsomewhere has some untapped ability.

Race 3

(1) LOCKLOADNEXPLODE looks like a risky play on top following a string of runner-up placings, but this field lacks form and he has speed from the inside. (4) WESTERN TSUNAMI was a bit flat in the lane a week ago but his prior form is fine; only clear threat. (6) BESTNOTLIE HANOVER was able to post a win at this level two starts back; maybe.

Race 4

(6) SECRET DELIGHT wasn't driver Brett Miller's choice, but that is because he sticks with his top account, the Remmen barn. Three-year-old colt has posted back-to-back solid qualifiers and could be ready to roll. (7) GOKUDO HANOVER blew away a similar field last week; must use. (8) ROOSTER RABBIT upset at 30-1 in this class four starts back and has some early speed.

Race 5

(3) JACK ATTACK took plenty of air and stopped last time. Four-year-old is not the type that can handle too much time on the rim. He needs to be on or near the lead and that seems very possible this Saturday. (7) ARTISTS RALLY visits the basement condition and qualified back well enough that he can make some noise. (6) MODERN GESTURE ships east and shows a 1:51 winning mile in 2014. (2) DREAMZZZZ R FOR U & (1) RELENTLESS DREAMER show wins at this level in February.

Race 6

(2) DOCTOR BUTCH returns to the Meadowlands with questionable form but faces much easier competition and figures to find his mojo. (5) ONTARIO SUCCESS put in another solid effort last time despite missing a month of action. (7) BLATANTLY BEST is probably better suited to the big track in East Rutherford than Yonkers; should race well. (1A) SPEED AGAIN is clearly good enough to win, but he was originally in to qualify and that tells me he needs a start.

Race 7

(2) LONEWOLF CURRIER has no apparent excuse for losing last time except that he simply lacks a lot of guts in the stretch. That said, he is as fast as or faster than any of his foes on Saturday and should have an opportunity to make amends. (7) WINDSONG GORGEOUS rarely brings a subpar effort to the table. If he somehow makes the top, he'll be tough. (1) ROCKNROL WILNEVERDIE figures to protect position from the pylons and get at least a slice of the pie. (5) SCHOOL KIDS ships in with iffy form but can go a big mile at times.

Race 8

(3) SOUTHWESTERN DREAM makes his third start back from winter break. Ten-year-old millionaire war horse should be ready to fire. (1) ALEX BULLVILLE drops back down to the level of his last win. (2) HUNCHIE usually brings a good effort from an inside post.

Race 9

(3) PANCHESTER UNITED has posted two strong efforts in a row and deserves the nod despite the class rise tonight. (5) BETTORS GLASS has plenty of ability and should be tighter in his second start off the bench. (1) OK GORGEOUS takes a sizable step up from NW3 to NW4. Let's see if he is up to the task.

Race 10

(5) ASTREOS FLASH has proven to be a legitimate $15k claimer and is facing mostly $12,500 types tonight. As long as he doesn't have to work too hard on the engine he should be right there at the wire. (7) NASSAU COUNTY is a horse I have avoided at the Meadowlands due to his lack of big track success. That said, his best asset is his late kick and I can see a fast pace developing. (4) DIAMOND SAID comes off a win versus easier. (6) KEEPING OPTIMISTIC moves into a new barn and double jumps in class; maybe.

Race 11

(4) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT has simply toyed with his competition while keeping his unbeaten streak intact. It is nearly impossible to go against him at this point. (1) NATIONAL SEELSTER came up a bit flat last week for the first time in his career. As part of an entry with the capable (1A) RODEO ROMEO, I'll take my chances on the likely $5 exacta. (3) FAST MOVIN TRAIN has raced well in both legs of the series and should be involved in the outcome.

Race 12

(1) FREDDY DAY HANOVER returns to the Meadowlands at a reduced level and gets a major driver change to Gingras. (4) MAMBO ITALIANO showed some late life in his second start for this barn. (3) MAGIC TRICKS is certainly at a winning level if he can get his act together.

Race 13

(4) JANIE BAY ships down from Woodbine and enters a very live barn. Veteran mare sports a 1:51 3/5 mark here last year. (10) BEACH GRANNY, (6) MANDY'S MATTJESTY & (3) CANDY STYX N all drop down in class and any could be live.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 3/14 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 69 - 214 / $338.60 BEST BETS: 10 - 18 / $35.40

Best Bet: KIWI IDEAL N (4th)

Spot Play: FLEM N EM N (12th)


Race 1

(4) ESPEN DE VIE gets a sneaky trainer change to John McDermott from brother Kevin and they are looking for a wakeup call. (1) OUR CULLENSCROWN N dropped to this level last week and raced decently on the rim in a race that had a strange finish; he would appear to be very logical from this spot. (3) CAVIART KEY drops back to this level and he likes to hit the board.

Race 2

(1) SHOW ME UP has been super in his last two starts since the DiDomenico claim and he has a post edge on his main rivals. (3) BROOKSTONE stays at the same level off a dominating win. (5) ALBERTO CONTADOR N looked very good winning just five days ago, beating my top choice in the process.

Race 3

(3) MONTREAL PHIL returns locally for Lachance and this veteran certainly knows his way around this track; watch the board here to possibly determine if he's ready. (1) VILLAGE BEAT is another classmaster who changes to the John McDermott barn. He's done absolutely nothing this year but he does get major post relief. (4) SANTANNA ONE will be more involved from this improved post.

Race 4

(2) KIWI IDEAL N had no realistic chance last week after winning and getting dq'ed versus better two back. Tonight he drops again, gets an improved post and is clearly the one to deny. (3) PANONGAHELA also drops in class and lands a better post after a series of outside tries. (1) TWIN B HOLLISTER returns from an easy score at Saratoga versus lesser.

Race 5

(6) LIFE UP FRONT sat in and never really had a shot last week as the winner crawled the first half; prior to that he had been showing some good energy and there's certainly no standouts in here. (2) TWIN B FAMOUS doesn't always like to win but he's been racing well and is a must-use from this spot. (1) DRUMFIRE A was second best to a can't-lose Shady City last week.

Race 6

(3) WARRAWEE NEEDY is clearly feeling good again and he may be able to control the action for the third consecutive week. (1) MACHS BEACH BOY closed a ton last week and this Lachance trainee looks like he's proving he belongs with the elite. (2) BEACH MEMORIES returns from vacation for Burke and he was an easy winner when last seen here.

Race 7

(4) TAKE IT BACK TERRY finally gets some class relief after a series of no-chance efforts. Assuming he's still sharp he can be close enough to reach here. (3) P H SUPERCAM has come back strong this season and he looks like the one to beat. (1) AMERICAN VENTURE stormed home last week right off the bench for Sabot.

Race 8

(7) BIG N BAD battled gamely in his local return only to get nailed by the classy Fat Mans Alley; he can go the distance tonight. (1) DUEL IN THE SUN has been sharp, has speed and draws best. (4) HANG TEN beat lesser last out and he can be considered here underneath.

Race 9

(4) TALKING BLUES was a dominating winner three back from this post, at this level and with Bartlett driving. (1) BURKENTINE HANOVER was outfinished last week after grinding harmlessly; he gets a better post and is destined for a smoother trip. (2) EIGHTEEN will be close up throughout but is tough to endorse for higher than the third spot due to his lack of late endurance.

Race 10

(3) SMOOTH CRIMINAL jogged against lesser from the eight hole in his local return and clearly he's ready to tackle better. (4) O'SUNDLAND looks for three in a row for Stalbaum and he'll be firing early. (2) ART OF ILLUSION is up in class after blowing away lesser; veteran is very sharp now.

Race 11

(4) FLIPPER J needs a smooth trip but the Bamond trainee is sharp and is more than capable. (1) ONE THROUGH TEN was a good second last week to the lock-city Heez Orl Black N and now he draws the rail. (2) ROCK TO GLORY is back inside where he was an upset winner two back.

Race 12

(1) FLEM N EM N gets much-needed class and post relief tonight, and that dominating Open win five back is still fresh on my mind. (4) FRANKIES DRAGON returns from Canada and he's had success here in the past. (2) FAMEOUS WESTERN finished willingly last week in a needed start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Our Posse, 4-1
(9th) Beatle Boots, 7-2

Charles Town (2nd) Donnameade, 3-1
(8th) Tizracer, 5-1

Delta Downs (7th) Easygoestiz, 3-1
(9th) Cole's Magic Vow, 7-2

Fair Grounds (5th) Duval, 3-1
7th) Connor's Ace, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Preacher's Bluff, 3-1
(6th) Downtown C.T., 3-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) My Money Rider, 7-2
(10th) Yari, 4-1


Hawthorne (4th) Kris Road, 5-1
(7th) Itzacoldcase, 3-1


Laurel Park (1st) Royal Shaft, 5-1
(8th) Rock Me Gently, 4-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Lookslikeahit, 7-2
(7th) Room for Aptitude, 4-1


Mountaineer (2nd) A.P. Steel, 4-1
(8th) Onetimeisallitakes, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (2nd) Tiz Ready, 5-1
(3rd) Mr. Right, 3-1


Park Racing (2nd) Quality Hey, 6-1
(7th) Good Feng Shui, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) My Pippa, 5-1
(5th) Comforter, 3-1


Santa Anita (3rd) Como Mi Padre, 4-1
(6th) Sidepocket Champ, 9-2


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Answer the Call, 7-2
(4th) Normandy Crossing, 5-1


Turfway Park (7th) Big Stage, 4-1
(9th) Exciting Brand, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Bucks (34-31) at Grizzlies (45-20)

Date: March 14, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Dave Joerger is hoping a night off for some of his starters pulls the Memphis Grizzlies out of a late-season malaise. Being without Mike Conley likely wouldn't help matters, however.

Memphis tries to avoid a third straight loss Saturday night when it hosts the Milwaukee Bucks, who are also struggling.

The Grizzlies (45-20) have seen their advantage for second place in the Western Conference shrink during a 4-6 stretch. They've averaged 92.0 points and 15.5 turnovers in that span compared to 100.3 and 12.8 previously.

Concerned that his team was becoming fatigued, Joerger rested starters Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and key reserve Tony Allen in a 107-87 loss at Washington on Thursday, concluding a 1-3 trip. Even with some fresher legs getting more minutes, the Grizzlies shot 38.8 percent and were 3 of 19 from 3-point range.

"We've got some complacency going on," Joerger said. "Hopefully we've addressed that.

"I've been trying to taper minutes back, kind of knowing the big-picture thing."

Conley, who is listed as questionable, sat out after twisting his right ankle in Wednesday's loss at Boston. He had 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting that night after a 12-game funk in which he averaged 11.8 points on 36.4 percent shooting.

Memphis had been 4-0 without him prior to Thursday's defeat.

The Grizzlies have committed 44 turnovers over the last two games, which may continue to be a concern with Conley sidelined. Beno Udrih, Nick Calathes and Russ Smith combined for 16 points on 3-of-19 shooting with nine assists and seven turnovers while splitting point guard duties versus Washington.

Courtney Lee was 3 for 10 and is shooting 25.5 percent over his last six games.

Milwaukee (34-31) is three games back of the Wizards for fifth place in the East. After losing eight of 11, the bigger concern may be holding off the teams behind them, including Indiana, which has pulled within 3 1/2 games after winning 13 of 15.

The Bucks are seeking just their third playoff appearance in nine years.

"All good teams have gone through a stretch in the season where they have lost a couple, but they have found a way to stay together and fight, and that's what we're doing right now," coach Jason Kidd told the team's official website.

Milwaukee lost a seventh straight road game Thursday, falling 109-103 in overtime to the Pacers. The team has averaged 91.6 points on 40.7 percent shooting during that skid with Khris Middleton shooting 37.6 percent.

"Our guys fought tonight on a back-to-back," Kidd said. "Short-handed, guys stepped up. Everybody gave everything they had. There's a lot of good stuff on the road against a team that is playing extremely well."

O.J. Mayo didn't play due to a sore right hamstring, though he's listed as probable. Jerryd Bayless is questionable after missing two games with a sore right ankle.

The Bucks ended a seven-game slide in the series in a 93-92 home win Nov. 8, holding Memphis to a season-worst 35.4 percent shooting as Conley, Lee and Gasol combined to hit 9 of 28. Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee with 18 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting against each NBA title contender's fatal flaw
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

As of Friday morning, we are now just 36 days away from the start of the NBA Playoffs. The Western Conference postseason shakedown is heating up while the Hawks and Cavaliers continue to distance themselves from the rest of the pack in the Eastern Conference.

Today we’re going to take a look at the key weaknesses of six playoff contenders while identifying the teams most likely to expose those flaws.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: 51-12, 9/2 to win title

Biggest flaw: Rebounding

Despite leading the Association in scoring, assists per game and winning percentage - among a myriad of other statistics - the rare instances in which Steve Kerr’s Warriors ran into trouble this season came when the club got worked on the glass.

In 12 defeats through 63 contests, Golden State has been out-rebounded eight times by an average of 7.2 boards per game, with the team currently ranking 23rd in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage (23.8 percent) and 19th in defensive rebound percentage (74.1 percent).

Opponents who pose the biggest threat to the Warriors’ run for the title include Memphis, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Cleveland.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: 42-25, 2/1 to win title

Biggest flaw: Postseason experience

Between a roster spot occupied by the best player on the planet as well as a zip code located in the less-then-daunting Eastern Conference, it’s no surprise to see LeBron James and the Cavaliers atop the NBA championship odds board.

But there’s a big difference between tearing through the league’s regular season and finding an abundance of success in the playoffs. Integral components Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combine for exactly zero career postseason appearances and midseason addition Timofey Mozgov has just five playoff starts under his belt since entering the league in 2010.

Cleveland emerging from the gauntlet as the last squad standing would go down as James’ greatest accomplishment considering his supporting cast, but whoever claims the West will pose a serious threat to that line on the King’s resume.

ATLANTA HAWKS: 50-14, 6/1 to win title

Biggest flaw: Star power

San Antonio, Miami and Boston each had their own edition of a “Big 3” triumvirate, Oklahoma City had Westbrook and Durant, Dallas rolled with Nowitzki and the Lakers fell in line behind Kobe Bryant.

Those aforementioned teams and superstars comprised the 10 squads to qualify for the NBA Finals over the last five seasons. Basketball is a team game, but the history of the sport is overflowing with championship squads led by bona fide superstar talent.

And while the Hawks have had a Cinderella-like run through the NBA’s regular season, how likely is it that a club led by Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague will put it all together to win four straight series in the playoffs, especially with LeBron James and the Cavaliers standing in the way of a trip to the Finals?

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: 35-29, 6/1 to win title

Biggest flaw: Endurance

As of the close of business Thursday night, the Thunder stood a half game behind New Orleans for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot. Granted, integral injuries to the team’s superstar talent has played a significant role in Oklahoma City’s shortcomings, as Kevin Durant has appeared in just 27 of 64 games this season while Russell Westbrook has missed 15 starts.

But that doesn’t change the fact that this organization will have to grind it out tooth and nail every single night for the rest of the regular season just to earn the right to play a Golden State squad in the first round that is 28-2 at home and 3-1 against the Thunder this season.

OKC should find its way into the playoffs, but how much gas will this team have left in the tank to make its way through a loaded Western Conference that offers no margin for error?

SAN ANTONIO SPURS: 40-24, 8/1 to win title

Biggest flaw: Age

The first rule when trying to identify flaws within the San Antonio power structure is to realize that this team is never to be counted out. Recent history serves as an excellent example, as the Spurs took a four-game losing streak from February 19-February 25 and a national narrative of “This isn’t their year,” and transformed it into a six-game winning streak that ended Thursday night in overtime against Cleveland.

That being said, Tim Duncan is now 38 years old, Manu Ginobili is 37 and Tony Parker turns 33 in May. San Antonio is still the most well-coached and fundamentally sound team in the NBA, but you have to wonder whether or not these long-in-the-tooth superstars can find a way to outrun the Western Conference’s youthful Warriors, skyscraping Grizzlies and explosive Rockets.

HOUSTON ROCKETS: 43-22, 20/1

Biggest flaw: Turnovers/ Big-game shortcomings

James Harden has been an absolute monster this season, but if you take a close look at the 43-22 record that Houston is currently boasting you’ll notice that the Rockets are an anemic 7-14 against the seven other Western Conference teams currently in possession of a postseason berth.

Houston has no trouble beating up on the little guy, but the big spots are where this team tends to crumble, as evidenced by a 0-4 record against league-leading Golden State this season. Additionally, it doesn’t help the cause when you rank second-last in the NBA in turnovers per game (16.2).

The Rockets are one of the most exciting team’s in the league to watch in HD, but this franchise has yet to prove it has the fortitude to seal the deal when it matters most.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Warriors failing to cover as huge faves
Justin Hartling

The Golden State Warriors will host the lowly New York Knicks Sunday in a game that will realistically close as the biggest spread of the season. But Golden State has been struggling as huge faves, as they have dropped their past three when favorites of -15 or more.

Those three contests have seen the Warriors go 3-0 straight up, but have only one by an average of 7 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four handicapping tips for betting NCAAB conference tournaments
By DOC'S SPORTS

The best betting appetizers to the annual feast known as the NCAA tournament are the various conference tournaments that take place over this week.

These serve as a warmup for the top teams in country, as they jockey for better seeding in the Big Dance. However, for a good number of teams, the conference tournaments represent one final chance to earn a place in the 68-team field by snagging an automatic bid that comes with winning it all.

Many of the traditional handicapping practices still apply. However, given the sudden-death nature of this format, there are a few additional betting tips to take into consideration when wagering on conference tournament action:

Good programs vs. Bad teams

By now we have a clear picture of every team in the nation and it becomes painfully obvious which ones are good and which one are bad.

While there are exceptions to every rule, don’t start thinking that teams such as Florida at 15-16 (10-19-1 ATS) or Michigan at 15-15 (12-16 ATS) are going to suddenly find their groove and go on a run.

Try and stay away from higher-profile schools that have good programs but are strapped with a bad team this year.

Season series

A few of the conference tournament matchups will mark the third time that two teams have faced each other this year.

Do your homework and try an uncover situations where a talented team has already lost twice to the team they are facing in the next round. Many times, you will find a couple key factors that contributed to the regular season sweep.

A good example would be if Butler meets Georgetown in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. The Hoyas won both encounters with the Bulldogs this season by a combined eight points. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed in the tournament but beating Butler a third time – especially with the Bulldogs playing so well right now – may be asking too much.

Ride the trends

While teams will be judged on their entire body of work when it comes to earning a spot in the NCAA tournament, it’s the programs that are hot ATS right now that you want to ride into their conference tournament.

The Davidson Wildcats rolled into the postseason on a nine-game SU and ATS streak in the Atlantic 10, grabbing the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. They get a double-bye and play the winner of La Salle vs. UMass - winning and covering in each of the meetings with those two programs in the regular season.

The Maryland Terrapins have won seven in a row and have covered in five of those contests, including a victory over Wisconsin as a 6-point home underdog.

Great players vs. Good teams

Every March there seems to be an example of what a great, pro-caliber player can mean to his team.

Connecticut rode Kemba Walker all the way to a national title in 2011 and along the way made some serious money for anyone who went along for the ride, with a 9-1 ATS record in Big East and NCAA Tournament play.

Anthony Davis was the backbone of Kentucky’s title run the following year, leading the Wildcats to a 4-1 ATS run in the final five rounds of the tournament before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Texas' Myles Turner, and Arkansas' Bobby Portis all find their names high on the NBA mock draft boards.

Teams with a great individual superstar tend to trump good teams with no true standouts. These prime-time-players all have dreams of being the next Kemba Walker and leading their team to a national title. But, they also realize they are auditioning for the NBA and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, which can be an even bigger source of motivation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kentucky keeps rolling, tops Florida

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) - Aaron Harrison and Karl-Anthony Towns each scored 13 points and No. 1 Kentucky shut down Florida in the second half to pull away for a 64-49 victory in Friday's Southeastern Conference tournament quarterfinal.

The meeting between the schools followed the same hard-fought pattern as the two previous matchups this season, with the Gators initially taking charge before Kentucky seized control in the second half with its size and depth.

The height advantage helped Kentucky (32-0) outrebound Florida 39-33, including a 16-11 edge offensively that created extra chances and earned frequent trips to the free-throw line. Towns also had 12 boards.

Kentucky hit 19 of 23 from the line, while Florida (16-17) was 3 of 5.

Willie Cauley-Stein added nine points for the Wildcats, who advance to Saturday's semifinal.

Jon Horford scored 15 points and Eli Carter 11 for the Gators, who made just two of their final 12 shots.

Florida shot 39 percent but got just four points from Dorian Finney-Smith one game after he scored 23 with 11 rebounds against Alabama.

Kentucky had a lot to do with that in starting the postseason sharply in its quest for a ninth national championship, a goal that players and coach John Calipari said trumps the issue of going unbeaten. The Wildcats insisted that losing in the conference tournament wasn't the worst thing if they still won the NCAA title, but they gave no ground to the Gators.

It wasn't the Wildcats' best offensive effort as they shot 38 percent, but that was offset with 15 points off 12 Gator turnovers and establishing a strong second-half tempo resulting in a second double-digit win over Florida in the past week.

That blue-clad Kentucky fans packed Bridgestone Arena as expected and cheered the Wildcats in their tournament opener.

Never mind that Kentucky faced a .500 Florida squad hoping to extend its season. Considering how competitive the previous two games were, it wasn't shocking that this game was initially tight and remained tense even after the Wildcats went up by double digits.

TIP-INS

Florida: Michael Frazier II struggled, going 0 for 4 from the field with two free throws after going 1 for 10 against Alabama.

Kentucky: The Wildcats accepted their trophy as the SEC regular season champions before tipoff with Towns carrying the hardware to the sideline. ... Officials gave Calipari a bench warning late in the second half.

UP NEXT:

Florida: Season ends.

Kentucky: Faces Auburn-LSU winner in SEC semifinal on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SMU Mustangs becoming hottest over team in nation
Justin Hartling

In their past nine games, Southern Methodist has been a boon for over backers with eight of those contests topping the closing total. The Mustangs have averaged 68.5 points during those nine contests while allowing 63.2 points per game.

The combined average score of 131.7 is a full eight points higher than the average spread.

SMU takes on Temple in the AAC Tournament Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big Ten Semifinal'

Wisconsin Badgers (29-3, 16-15-1 ATS) are 9.5 point favorites on the betting lines when they take on the Purdue Boilermakers (21-11, 20-9 ATS) in the semifinal round of the Big Ten Tournament at the United Center in Chicago. Badgers lead by Frank Kaminsky (18.4) dropping a whopping 55.7% of his shots leads three players in double digits helping Wisky generate 71.7 PPG. Defensively, Badgers are the best defensive team in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country allowing just 55.9 PPG on 41.8% shooting. Purdue, equally efficient on the offensive end net 70.6 PPG with A.J. Hammons (11.8) leading four players dropping nine or more points/game. Defensively, Boilermakers with the league's Defensive Player of the Year in Rapheal Davis hold their own allowing opponents 64.3 PPG on 39.8% shooting. Wisconsin won the only matchup with Purdue this season but dropped the cash as 16 point chalk moving its mark to 1-3 ATS last four meetings, 5-10-1 ATS the past sixteen encounters with Boilermakers. A few betting nuggets to consider when handicapping this contest. Boilermakers have a solid 10-3 ATS stretch going and have thrived in an underdog roll lately going 6-0 ATS. Badgers enter ridding a 2-5 ATS skid, 7-11-1 ATS slide the past 19 on the hardwood.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

C-USA tournament, Birmingham
#4 seed UAB is taking advantage of playing at home this week; they beat #1 seed La Tech in OT last nite- four starters played 30:00+. Blazers had 21-3 edge on foul line. UAB won its last 11 games in Birmingham (this is not its home court); they beat #6 seed Middle Tennessee twice this year, 54-49 on road Jan 4, then 100-95 in triple OT Feb 28, game Blazers led by 15 in second half. Blue Raiders are playing for 4th day in row and are now playing true road game- lot to ask.

Ivy League playoff game, Philadelphia
Yale-Harvard both went 11-3 in Ivy League, have one game playoff at a neutral (Palestra) site. Yale gagged away a five-point lead in last 0:24 at Dartmouth last week after they won at Harvard night before. Bulldogs haven't been to NCAAs since 1962. Harvard won this league last three years- they won first meeting at Yale 52-50 Feb 7 (Yale shot 28% inside arc, trailed 16-11 at half), then lost 62-52 to Bulldogs eight nights ago, (Crimson was 2-17 on arc), but Yale blew chance to clinch the next nite.


Big 14 tournament, Chicago
Michigan State won this tournament two of last three years; they are 7-2 in last nine games overall, but lost twice to Maryland this season, first in double OT at home in Big 14 opener Dec 30 (Terps had 22 turnovers -8), then 75-59 on road Jan 17 (Terps were 11-21 on arc). Terps won their last nine games, allowing 57.8 ppg in last five; they used four starters 32+ minutes in win over Indiana (was 42-20 at half). State used four starters 30+ minutes in its win over Ohio State.

SEC tournament, Nashville
Win over Tennessee yesterday ended 7-game skid for Razorbacks in SEC tourney. Arkansas won nine of its last 11 games; they were up 20 at half Friday vs Vols, won by 8, going 32-39 on line- they used four starters 32:00+ in game. Georgia won five of last six games, with four wins by 4 points or less; Dawgs used only two guys more than 28:00. Hogs won in Athens 79-75 in SEC opener at Athens Jan 6, despite being -15 on boards and trailing by 13 in first half.

Atlantic 14 tournament, Brooklyn
VCU is now 20-5 in its last 25 conference tournament games, avenging a pair of losses to crosstown rival Richmond yesterday. Rams won first two games here this week by total of nine points- they were 10-21 on arc Friday, outscoring Spiders 16-0 on foul line. VCU beat Davidson 71-65 in first meeting Jan 7, then lost 82-55 to Wildcats in Charlotte nine days ago, going 1-15 on arc while Davidson was 11-26. Davidson won its last ten games, rallying from 18 down to stun LaSalle 67-66 yesterday.

AAC tournament, Hartford
Temple won last four games and 11 of last 13; Owls ended 3-year skid in conference tourneys Friday, but they lost twice to SMU this year, 60-55 at home Jan 14, 67-58 in rematch in Dallas Feb 17. Temple had 22-8 edge on foul line yesterday- they used three starters 33+ minutes. SMU won 16 of 19 AAC games this year, winning last two by 5-6 points- in win vs East Carolina Friday, Mustangs had 19-7 edge on foul line while playing Moore/Manuel 39:00 each. Moore was only SMU to take a trey (3-9).

MAC tournament, Cleveland
Central Michigan beat Buffalo twice this season, by 11 at home Jan 21, by 1 in Buffalo Feb 14, game Bulls led by 13 at half. Chippewas are 8-2 in last ten games; since 2003, they're 0-5 in second conference tourney game of a year. Buffalo won its last seven games since losing to Central at home; Bulls are 2-4 in second conference tourney game of a year. Bulls played two starters 34:00 Friday, no one else more than 29:00. Central played three of its starters 37+ minutes yesterday.


ACC tournament, Greensboro
Notre Dame led by 15-18 points at half last two nights, then hung on in second half both times; Irish won 71-70 in Chapel Hill, Jan 5, despite being -17 on boards- they made 10-23 on arc. North Carolina is 16-7 in ACC tourney last nine years; they're playing fourth day in row, tough for Paige, who has little help in backcourt. Three Irish starters played 36:00+ last two nights; they've won seven of last eight games. Carolina was 4-6 in last ten regular season games before winning three games this week.

Big East tournament, NYC
Xavier won its last three games: by a point, by 6 in OT, by 2 points last night in game they led by 19 in second half. Villanova has won 14 games in row, is playing for #1 seed in next week's tournament; none of its guys played more than 31:00 last night, as they led by 13 in second half, hung on for dramatic 63-61 win. Xavier lost 88-75 at Villanova Jan 14, 78-66 at home two weeks ago, game Musketeers led by 9 early in second half. Davis played whole 40:00 last nite; three other starters played 31:00+.

Big X tournament, Kansas City
Kansas won this tournament six of last nine years, going 6-0 when they are in finals; Ellis played 26:00 Friday, after not playing Thursday- they are 3-20 from arc this week. Iowa State won seven of its last nine games; they were down 11 at half vs Texas, tied at the half last night. Home side won both series games this season; Cyclones won 86-81 Jan 17 in Ames, lost 89-76 in Lawrence Feb 2. Only two Jayhawks played 29:00+ last night. Niang/Morris played 37/39 minutes last night for Cyclones.

Pac-12 tourney, MGM Las Vegas
Arizona won its last ten games, with three of last four by 22+ points; as good as Wildcats have been, they haven't won this tournament in last 12 years. Oregon won seven in row, 11 of last 12 games. Ducks won six of last seven conference tourney games- they've won this tournament three times since last time Arizona won it. Arizona pounded Oregon in both meetings this season, 80-62 in Eugene Jan 8, then 90-56 at home Jan 28, when Wildcats shot 66% inside arc.

Mountain West tournament, Las Vegas
San Diego State is in Mountain West final for sixth time in seven years, but went only 2-3 in previous five finals. Last time Wyoming was in the conference tourney final, they lost in OT to Aztecs in 2006. Cowboys can knock team off bubble by winning here, stealing bid; their last three games were all decided by 2 points or in OT- they had four guys play 38+ minutes last night (Adams 45:00/Nance 44:00). Aztecs swept both games with Wyoming this year, by 8 in Laramie, 26 at home, but Nance didn't play in that game. .

Big West tournament, Anaheim
Hawai'i plays fast, has smallish team; they'll attempt to neutralize giants Irvine has by keeping game fast, Hawai'i was 3-5 on Big West road before winning first two tourney tilts by seven points each; Warriors lost twice to Irvine this season, 78-72 at home Jan 24 (Irvine was 10-15 on arc), then 75-60 in Bren Center Feb 19 (Anteaters were 10-19 on arc). Hawai'i has been in NCAA four times, last time in '02; Irvine has never been in- they lost conference final twice, in '08/'13.

Big Sky tournament, Missoula, MT
Eastern Washington had kid come off bench, make 7-8 on arc yesterday in 91-83 win over Sacramento; Eagles were 15-25 on arc for game- they won 75-69 on this floor Feb 5 (were 11-24 on arc), then lost by point at home to Griz Feb 28 (were 10-25 on arc, only 12-20 on line). Montana won nine of last ten games after starting season 11-10; they won by 3-2 points in first two tourney games, needing OT to beat Weber Thursday. Griz won this tourney three of last five years; Eastern last won it in '04.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- Maple Leafs had a 5:00 power play last night but gave up two shorthanded goals, which typifies how bad Toronto has been this year.

-- Milwaukee Brewers temporarily banned high-5's to prevent spread of pink-eye, which is highly contagious. Seriously, they did.

-- Dolphins traded WR Mike Wallace to Minnesota after they got Kenny Stills from the Saints. New Orleans signed RB CJ Spiller.

-- Zack Wheeler has a sore elbow, will miss a start for the Mets, who have depth in their starting pitching but no one is sure if it is quality depth.

-- Ben Roethlisberger signed another 5-year contract with the Steelers. He is 33.

-- Turns out Fredi Gonzalez got tossed Thursday after first pitch in bottom of first inning; he was annoyed about some pitches in top of the first.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, March 14 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Knicks president Phil Jackson can only wonder what might have been on Saturday when his team visits Golden State. Jackson thought he had former player Steve Kerr signed, sealed and delivered to coach New York this offseason. However, the Warriors offered a better roster (obviously) and the chance for Kerr to stay near his West Coast home. It wasn’t a no-brainer decision at the time — it’s the Knicks, after all — but clearly Kerr made the right choice. Knicks-Warriors looks to be the mismatch of the night (season?) Saturday. Here’s a look at every game.

Celtics at Pacers (-9, 193)

Boston hosted Orlando on Friday. If I asked you who has the longest current winning streak in the NBA right now, would you possibly know it’s Indiana? The Pacers won their seventh straight Thursday 109-103 in OT against the Bucks to get within four games of .500. Rodney Stuckey finished with 25 points as the Pacers improved to 9-1 since the All-Star break and within 3.5 games of Milwaukee for the No. 6 seed in the East. Indiana’s Roy Hibbert missed the game because of an infection in his left elbow, so he’s questionable for this one. The Pacers and Celtics have split two close games, each winning at home.

Key trends: Boston has covered four of the past five at Indiana. The “over/under” has hit in five of the past six there.

Early lean: Pacers and under.



Kings at Wizards (-8.5, 206.5)

Sacramento was in Philadelphia on Friday. Washington followed a dominant performance in Charlotte to start this week with another one Thursday at home, 107-87 over Memphis. Perhaps that’s a bit misleading because the Grizzlies sat four of their best players. Potentially bad news for the Wizards as well as Bradley Beal was limping after the game with pain in his lower leg, which has bothered him all year. He said it was nothing and wouldn’t miss any time. I could see him getting this one off with the Kings on the second of a back-to-back. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams.

Key trends: Washington is 1-5 against the spread in its past six against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in Washington’s past five at home. The Kings are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: End of long road trip for Kings so they will be on empty. Definitely Wizards and over.



Nets at 76ers (+5, 194)

Philly hosted the Kings on Friday. Brooklyn has been off since Wednesday’s 104-98 defeat in Miami, the Nets’ fifth straight loss. The Nets were within six midway through the third, but Miami ended the quarter on a 13-4 run to take an 82-67 lead. Nets reserve guard Alan Anderson missed the game with a bruised tailbone. Brooklyn won the first two meetings with Philly this season but lost the most recent, 90-88 at home on Jan. 9. Nerlens Noel had the tie-breaking dung with three seconds left.

Key trends: Brooklyn is 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn’s past five on Saturday and 4-0 in Philly’s past four on that day. The under is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Nets and under.



Bucks at Grizzlies (TBA)

Memphis closed a four-game road trip at 1-3 with Thursday’s 20-point loss in Washington in which Coach Dave Joerger sat starters Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley and key reserve Tony Allen. Only Conley, who twisted his right ankle in a loss at Boston on Wednesday night, sat because of an injury. But he could have played. It was the Grizzlies’ 12th game in 19 nights, so probably not a huge surprise Joerger did that at the end of a trip. I expect them all back here. Milwaukee lost 109-103 in OT at Indiana on Thursday. Michael Carter-Williams had his best game as a Buck with 28 points, eight rebounds, four assists and four steals but Milwaukee has dropped seven straight on the road. The Bucks beat the visiting Grizzlies 93-92 on Nov. 8 as ex-Buck Brandon Knight converted a 3-point play with 1.1 seconds left.

Key trends: The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their past nine vs. the West. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its past four at home. The under is 7-1 in the past eight meetings.

Early lean: I expect a Memphis rout if everyone is in there.



Pistons at Jazz (-7, 184.5)

Detroit was in Portland on Friday looking to end an eight-game losing streak (doubtful). Utah won a fourth straight Thursday, 109-91 against the visiting Rockets. Rudy Gobert continued his emergence with 19 points, 22 rebounds and four blocks. He had 18 first-half rebounds to tie the NBA season high for a half. Gordon Hayward returned from missing one game and had 29 points, seven assists and four rebounds. Utah won in Detroit 97-86 on Nov. 9. In the 10 years since Detroit’s 2004 championship, the Jazz have gone 17-3 against the Pistons.

Key trends: Utah is 5-2 ATS in its past seven at home. The under is 4-1 in Detroit’s past five in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 7-0 in Utah’s past seven vs. the East.

Early lean: Jazz and under.



Knicks at Warriors (-19.5, 200.5)

Golden State was in Denver on Friday. This game begins a six-game homestand for the Warriors. If when the NBA schedule came out you had this matchup featuring the team with the NBA’s worst record against the one with its best, well, you are smarter than I am. New York did end a five-game losing streak with a 101-94 victory at the Lakers on Thursday. It was the Knicks’ first win there since 2007. New York’s Quincy Acy missed the game for personal reasons.

Key trends: The Knicks have covered four straight on Saturday. The Warriors are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 12-5 in the Knicks’ past 17 overall.

Early lean: I’m not giving 19.5 points to anyone, especially with the favorite on the second of a back-to-back (even if some Warriors rested on Friday).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

SATURDAY, MARCH 14 SCORE

(7:05) INDIANA PACERS 98 – Boston Celtics 96 _____ _____

(7:05) WASHINGTON 105 – Sacramento 102 (NBA) _____ _____

(7:35) Brooklyn Nets 108 – PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 98 _____ _____

(8:05) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 115 – Milwaukee Bucks 99 _____ _____

(9:05) UTAH JAZZ 103 – Detroit Pistons 90 _____ _____

(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 125 – New York Knicks 88 _____ _____

BEST BETS: MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE (1)