Wunderdog:
NBA, NCAA, and NHL one day.
Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Atlanta -7.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Clippers somehow put together a blowout win last game beating the Grizz 126-105. They hit a franchise-record sixteen 3-pointers and shot 59% from the field. Trend or anomoly? Anomoly! That was an absolute fluke. IT was their first win since January 23rd. This team averages 43% from the field and hit 59%. Not gonna happen again. If anything, that puts the Hawks on guard and they won't let up here. Yes, Joe Johnson may again be missing here, but his absence didn't stop them from winning both games he missed. And they covered the spread in both as well. The Hawks are simply great at home where they stand at 18-5 while the Clips have won just six of 19 on the road this season. Since last season, the Clips are just 24-43 ATS vs. winning temas. They are 45-66 ATS overall as an underdog. I like Atlanta to roll big here.
Game: Denver at New Jersey (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New Jersey +2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
New Jersey has felt the fear of getting too far out of the playoff race to recover. And they have responded with three straight wins. They are very close to Milwaukee now for the eight spot and this is an important, and winnable game for them. The Nets have won six of their last eight ATS. The Nuggets barely got by the lowly Thunder a few nights ago, winning by just one point. This is the third straight road game for Denver, having covered the spread in the first two. Denver is 47-78 ATS in their last 125 games in that situation. I like the Nets in this spot.
Game: Toronto at Memphis (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Toronto is in desparate need of a win. They put together three straight wins to snap a seven-game slide at the end of last month. But, they have proceeded to drop five in a row. This is a great spot for them to get the win they need to get some confidence back. Chris Bosh won't be here but Toronto can win this game as they are every bit the equal of Memphis. The Grizzlies are just 14-25 ATS the past two season vs. teams that hit 46%+ from the field. That includes an 0-11 mark vs. such teams in late-season play at home. Back in January, the Raptors beat Memphis 103-82 and Memphis is just 12-25 ATS revenging a loss this season. They are also 4-13 ATS coming off a home loss. I like the Raptors to win this one.
Game: Arkansas at Mississippi State (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arkansas +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven’t managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.
Game: Tulane at Marshall (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tulane +7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Thundering Herd is really going south as they have now dropped four straight, and six of seven. It is hard to trust them in this spot. They have been one of the worst pointspread teams in the process as they are just 4-11-1 against the number on the season. The Green Wave is getting no respect here as they are 1-7 on the road this season, but four of those were over Auburn, George Mason, Texas, and UAB, so not as bad as it looks. The Herd has not covered as a home favorite in their last seven tries, and this is not the spot where that is going to change. Tulane gets the call.
Game: Brown at Harvard (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Brown +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Harvard had a two-game stretch where they played way over their head against Santa Clara and Boston College and have been highly over-valued since. The proof is in the before and after. Harvard did not cover a single game before their win over Santa Clara, nor have they covered one since their win over Boston College. The Crimson are 0-8-1 ATS outside of those two games. While the wins haven't been there for the Bruins, the close games have as they have. They dropped games by two points twice, a game by just three and a six-point loss. Outside of Cornell, the Ivy king pin, the Bruins have stayed in every game, and I expect the same here against an overrated Crimson team. I like Brown and the points here.
Game: Xavier at Duquense (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 152.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Xavier Musketeers graduated a lot of key ingredients from their recent success, but hasn't skipped a beat. They play a sticky defense and have only allowed two teams all season to reach 75 points against them. Consequently, they will typically play to low totals. They have only been involved with two games all season with a total of 141 or higher and both finished UNDER. Duquesne loves to push the ball, but if you go back to last year when they met the X-Men's defense, that same offense that scored 80+ in 17 games, managed just 48 points! It takes two teams putting up points to get to the 150s, and the X-Men just aren't as accommodating as most. This one goes UNDER.
Game: Louisiana Lafayette at North Texas (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Louisiana Lafayette +5.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Ragin’ Cajuns haven't been much of a rage in the win column on the road, but they sure have played a few good teams tough. They own a two-point loss at LSU, and dropped a decision to always tough Western Kentucky by just five. The Eagles have surrounded a four-game winning streak with some really awful play as they dropped five straight prior, and have now dropped three straight after. This is a very inconsistent team that can't be trusted laying points as they have managed just one cover as a favorite all season. The opposite is true for the Cajuns. Despite the difficulty getting in the win column, they are killing the oddsmakers when posted as a dog by beating the number in that role in 16 of their last 22. We have a live dog here! LA-Lafayette gets the call.
Game: Louisiana Monroe at New Orleans (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Louisiana Monroe +5.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Warhawks have been going to war on the road with pop-guns. They have managed just one win in 12 tries. Once again we gain the value of a team that doesn’t win, but lines their backers with gold. The Warhawks, despite their losing ways, have been 8-4 ATS which includes covering four of their last six on the road. The Privateers have recorded three freebies in the win column against non-D1 schools, so they are a bit over-valued with inflated win column. The truth reads 7-13 against Division 1 opponents. That might help to explain their inability to cover as a small favorite of from 1-6.5 where they are just 1-6 ATS. The numbers tell the wrong story, but looking inside them paints a different picture, so Louisiana-Monroe gets the call here.
Game: Denver at Arkansas Little Rock (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Denver +8 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Pioneers have gone deep into the season looking for their first road win as they have laid an egg in the win column in their first 10 tries. That extends the length of value you find, as who wants to back a team that is 0-10 Su on the road. The hidden secret here is this team has covered nine of their last 10 games including their last five on the road. The Trojans are also flying high with six covers in their last seven and 7-1 SU in their last eight. The numbers look impressive, but where they matter the most is against the number. The Trojans are falling very short at home as they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Denver's 0-10 looks ugly, but the grade here is ATS where they come up aces and the Trojans come up short. Denver gets the money in this one.
__________________
hno:
ope::smoker2::modemman::modemman::money:
<< 
