Saturday 2/28/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 2/28 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (5 - 9 / $14.80): HEAVENLY KNOX (8th)

Spot Play: YOUROLDLOV ELETTER (4th)


Race 1

(5) RYLEIGH'S LILLY mare could be the main danger late especially with some pace to close into. (7) WINGS is razor sharp and versatile; short price. (2) STATE STREET LIZ was very close against this bunch last week and should offer value; threat.

Race 2

(3) HOT STREAK HANOVER gelding gets sent out second start for new connections. The pacer has plenty of room to improve. (6) FLYING ROCKET disappointed last race as a heavy favorite coming to a walk late. The 4-year-old is the horse to beat with a smooth trip. (5) WESTERN SLAMMER faces slightly tougher but has been racing gamely.

Race 3

(2) IAM BONASERA almost made a break last start making an early move but always unleashes a wicked stretch kick; fires late. (1) MAJOR MONET should be ready for a better effort down in class from the rail. (5) BIG BRAD five-year-old stallion is not the same horse he was a year ago but does always give an honest effort.

Race 4

(5) YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER 4-year-old has really stepped her game up this year and should offer a nice price in a field with few contenders. (6) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH mare has not come back from the break sharp but does take a significant drop in class. (1) OUR MISS LILY mare gets the best post and should be in line for an excellent trip.

Race 5

(5) MUSCULAR YANKEE lightly raced gelding has some upside and really showed a nice burst of speed last out. (7) CARDINAL WIND gelding has burned cash in three straight lacking pop late; command a price. (6) RIET'S KID sneaks up with a good effort from time to time but needs some racing luck.

Race 6

(3) BELL VALLEY BILL had some decent late pace last out and should be much closer turning for home with the inside post. (2) NANCYS SKYSCAPE was really sharp last start and will hit the board with a similar effort. (5) MEADOWBROOK SAMSON has been inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 7

(2) BEACHSIDE BUNGALOW pacer makes his second start off a layoff and put in a nice first race back. (7) ITS A BIG SECRET has tons of talent and circled the field last out at a price; threat. (5) SPEED RACER picks up a huge driver change and will be driven aggressively.

Race 8

(5) HEAVENLY KNOX pacing gelding will look to go four wins to kick off his career. The 4-year-old owns a big brush and just needs a good setup to sweep past late. (4) DIXIE'S BOY was the driver's choice but has been racing greenly; command a price. (3) WALKING TALL is just now back in racing shape after a long layoff.

Race 9

(5) BEST MAN HANOVER was asked to race last week and showed up in a big way. If the pacer is driven aggressively he's the horse to beat. (6) FORT SILKY veteran pacer makes his third start back off a layoff and should be ready for a big effort. (1a) ICE SCRAPER doesn't have many wins against the top two choices but will be playing a game of catch me if you can; fires early.

Race 10

(4) WESTERN DEAL was used multiple times last start just missing to a nice opponent. (6) REJOICEANDBEGLAD can upset at a price with some racing luck and a smooth trip. (1) WILDCAT BOBBY raced well last out and looks to be in line for another ground saving trip; threat.

Race 11

In what looks to be Dave Magee's final drive of his career (7) MYKINDAPRINCESS could send him out a winner if he can be a little closer turning for home. (9) OFFICIAL COURT is the sleeper in the race having nowhere to go last out. The pacer's line doesn't show it but she had some sneaky late pace. (4) GRACIE ON MY MIND was the drivers choice, will offer a big price, and could hit the ticket underneath late.

Race 12

(1) LONG TERM is sharp right now and will offer a nice price in an evenly matched race. (3) REAL WINNER hard to tell when the connections will show up with a big effort, however the pacer is more than capable. (4) HOLY CHIP just missed at this level two back and is always a threat down in class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/28 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,4/2,5,10/5/2,4,8 = $18

MEET STATS: 74 - 220 / $406.40 BEST BETS: 10 - 21 / $43.10

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 20 / $54.10

Best Bet: POWER MOVE (6th)

Spot Play: PAPER BACKED LINDY (2nd)


Race 1

(6) HIT AND GIGGLE A was really put to the test early in the mile and used hard twice in the first 3/4 of the mile yet week and still bravely prevailed. Off that effort he gets the call to extend his win streak to three. (8) I SCOOT SAM was coming fast with his typical late charge but ran out of racetrack. He is obviously capable but is a victim of flow and in many cases ground loss. (1) JAC SPADE has done well in the lowest conditioned class recently and can close late here for a share in this claimer.

Race 2

(5) PAPER BACKED LINDY, 4 for 7 on the year, will likely offer a decent price here vs. those that raced in the Preferred last week and is worth a stab in his current sharp form. (8) FEARLESS MAN is a bit of a head scratcher in that some weeks he looks like Mack Lobell and others, not so much. He will take big action here off his blowout Preferred win last week but is certainly not unbeatable. (6) BURNIN MONEY has been super sharp the entire month and is a contender here again.

Race 3

Two horses from our personal 'watch list' meet here and while it's a tough call we'll give the edge to (2) THUNDER STEELER who was tearing up the track late in his comeback race and just ran out of real estate. Look for McNair to roll this one early here. (5) AMERICAN GI couldn't get to impressive winner Sparky Mark in this class last week but was a clear second off a tough trip. He could reverse this prediction as he is in top form now. (1) GOLDSTAR BADLANDS raced Monday night and closed well for 2nd a class lower. He can make some impact late here, too.

Race 4

(4) ROCK N ROLL XAMPLE was ready first time out this year but was narrowly beaten by a very sharp winner. She should be tough in here with that outing under her belt. (2) BOAT HOUSE ROW exits the same heat and wasn't that far behind the choice at the wire. She fits well here but needs to lay closer early. (7) EAT ME UP drops back to the level where she is most competitive but is one that is more apt to get a slice than a win most nights.

Race 5

(4) SPARKY MARK jumps in class off his impressive win last week but if he can duplicate that effort he will take some beating. (3) WAZZUP WAZZUP led to the very last steps of the mile last week and is a good bet to sit the choice's pocket here and try to get by late. (10) FRANKIES DRAGON drops out of the top class but beating this group from the 10-hole is no easy feat.

Race 6

(5) POWER MOVE impressively charged down the centre of the track to nail a sharp leader late. He is unbeaten since joining the Moreau barn and likely keeps the roll going here. (10) LIMITLESS was only 4 lengths back of the choice after parking the mile and passing 6 foes in the back half. He can get a good share here at a price. (4) OUR MOJO tried the impressive Exemplar first up and was easily repelled. He could have some better luck here vs. this easier group.

Race 7

(8) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY faced big time heat on the lead the entire mile last week yet somehow managed to still fight them all off en route to a win first time over Woodbine. Call to repeat off that impressive effort. (4) NICKLE BAG looked golden but hung in the lane. Several tough trips in a row may be catching up to him now. (2) APPRENTICE HANOVER comes in fresh, looks ready to go and won the majority of his races last year in winter. He could better this placing first time out.

Race 8

(9) MR DENNIS made every pole a winning one first time in Menary's barn. He might be able to step up in class and beat these. (1) THEPANISULAHOTEL has looked pretty sharp in recent weeks and gets some class relief here which may be all he needs at this point; beware. (8) TOUCH OF LIGHTNING also drops to a level where he has been very competitive and is sure to be leaving hard at the outset.

Race 9

(8) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ gets to face NW 3 lifetime getting into the race under the earnings limit. He has been sharp all winter and stands a good chance here as long as he is put into the race early. (7) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN exits stakes series and is in a similar situation as the choice. He is the main danger. (6) ARRIVED LATE was beaten narrowly by the choice on Feb. 7th but has now missed three weeks of action; mixed signals.

Race 10

(4) RESISTANCE FUTILE gets some class relief here after finishing close up vs. better. He will be a major player here. (9) MONTREAL PHIL exits the same race and was less than a length behind the choice at the wire. He could turn the tables if he is out in a good flow on the backside. (3) IDEAL JET was getting good at the end of the Ontario Boys series and should get a decent share here. (7) SUNNY BEACH DAY takes a class drop and will be coming late from far back for a minor share. (5) MACHAL JORDAN is an in-and-outer but figures to get a check from the rail here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 2/28 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 109 - 435 / $614.10 BEST BETS: 13 - 36 / $48.60

Best Bet: NATIONAL SEELSTER (5th)

Spot Play: WITCH DALI (11th)


Race 1

(8) LONEWOLF CURRIER went a nice mile in defeat last time while facing better foes. The outside post hurts tonight, but perhaps that will help to provide a better price. (3) MAGIC TRICKS is another dropping down a condition level. He is more than capable against this group. (1) BRICK BAZOOKA looks awful on paper, but this is a big class break and he is first-time Burke. (7) BULLET BOB comes out of the same race as the top choice; has early speed.

Race 2

(2) JL CRUZE almost caught (1) OPULENT YANKEE despite that one setting some soft fractions. I'd expect driver John Campbell to get more aggressive and take charge. The latter looks like a clear second best and comes with a pair of decent entry mates. (4) WALK THE WALK has won two straight but needs to step up his game.

Race 3

I loved the qualifier from (3) CAVIART LUCA on February 12. He bided his time and absolutely pounced on the leaders while full of pace. He'll need to drop a few seconds tonight but has proven he can go in the 1:51 range needed to win. (9) VICTORY AT LAST raced well on the engine in his debut for the Burke barn; can show more. (8) OK GORGEOUS was hopelessly trapped last time while loaded with pace and everyone saw it. Expect a shorter than deserved price. (2) ALWAYSFOOLNAROUND only lost by a couple of lengths most recently despite a tough trip; worth considering.

Race 4

(5) DIAMOND SAID dropped and popped with a big effort in the preliminary round of this mini claiming series. Gelding shouldn't miss a beat in his new barn. (3) OUTA MY HEAD has won two straight in this class; very dangerous. (9) EXPLODENT has enough early speed to overcome the bad draw and actually got lucky when one of the horses from last week's cancelled card didn't return and helped him move in one spot; exotics at least.

Race 5

(1) NATIONAL SEELSTER was a very professional winner last week and remains undefeated; again. (8) COASTER has proven versatile and could improve in start two for Burke. (3) ROOSTER RABBIT has stepped up before but needs the right trip for that to happen again.

Race 6

(4) REDISCOVERY took another step forward in round two of the Sonsam. He'll be a great price again and perhaps he is ready to get over the hump. (6) ROCKEYED OPTIMIST couldn't have raced any better than he did last week, coming first-over and charging home in 25 4/5. He is the one to beat. (3) MAJOR UPTREND is going for the series sweep; obvious player.

Race 7

(8) IDEAL MAGIC had been racing well on the lead but came from behind and closed well. Four-year-old remains sharp and only needs a live trip. (1) WINDSONGS GORGEOUS was claimed right back by trainer Mike Watson. Veteran war horse loves to win and is sharp as usual. (10) ROCK OUT was super two weeks back. If he brings that effort again the race may be over. (4) SIR CARY'S Z TAM is clearly in form. Can he handle this class? (5) ASHLEY'S HUSBAND is always a threat if the pace is quick.

Race 8

(2) CAPOZZO faces weaker foes and although this field is competitive, he does have a nice post edge. (6) MISTER VIRGIN is a bit of a hanger in the stretch, but this field is loaded with early speed types and he might have no choice but to roll past many late. (8) DREAMLANDS ART was used to the front on a night where speed wasn't exactly killing it. I'd give him a second chance. (7) FOUR STARZZZ Z comes off consecutive second-place finishes.

Race 9

(2) SPENDER HANOVER is back down in class. In a field that is hard to separate, maybe a new set of hands in Trace Tetrick can make a difference. (3) J M JET SET raced reasonably well in his first start for this barn; more now? (9) MIDNIGHT DYLAN N steps off following a few solid efforts. (8) MOONLIGHT RANSOM was Zeron's choice over a few others.

Race 10

(1) NEW KIND should push away from the cones and make a backside brush. In a field with no standouts, I expect Pierce to be aggressive. (3) HILARIOUS HALO raced okay from post 10; this post is clearly better. (9) MAMBO ITALIANO moves into a new barn; maybe.

Race 11

(5) WITCH DALI had an off night last week, but I still believe she is the best of this bunch and the price should be higher this time around. (4) EMPRESS DEO goes for the series sweep after surprising to some extent in both preliminary legs. (1) SOUTHWIND SERENITY seems to be getting better each time out in 2015.

Race 12

(8) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT was spectacular besting older foes in the Sonsam last time. If he brings anything close to that effort these foes will be nowhere near him at the wire. (1) REVENGE SHARK was very good in his most recent qualifier. Three-year-old showed some promise at Lexington last year. (3) SHADOW RECRUIT got in the win column in his second start for Burke, but this is a much tougher spot.

Race 13

(7) PANCHESTER UNITED raced okay from post 10 last time and now enters the Burke barn. (1) I'M AN ATHLETE comes off a poor mile and hails from a dull barn, but he had missed some time prior to that start and is dropping in class. (3) URGENT ACTION is a classy 8-year-old that could easily step up in this spot; missed four weeks, though. (2) K-LEES SHAKENBAKE scored in this class a week ago and is always dangerous if in striking position. (4) SALEVSTER STALLION draws better this time around.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 2/28 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 52 - 154 / $256.30 BEST BETS: 7 - 13 / $25.60

Best Bet: LORENZO DREAM (11th)

Spot Play: KIWI IDEAL N (10th)


Race 1

(1) SIR MELO'S Z TAM is not a prolific winner but he's hit the board in his four starts since joining the Rohr barn and he should work out a live trip from this spot. (4) GAMBLER'S TALE returns locally, was Sears' choice and should be forwardly placed early. (6) GD AIRLINER ships from Woodbine where he's been knocking heads with some good ones.

Race 2

(2) SPINARAMA takes a needed drop in class, gets post relief and faces a generally camera-shy group. (6) LAST DRAGON has raced well in three of four for Laterza. (4) CAVIART KEY can save ground and offer a late kick.

Race 3

(2) SAFE HARBOR saved ground and went evenly last week in a needed start off the layoff; veteran should be ready to fire tonight. (1) DELCO ROCKNROLL debuts for another new barn, draws best and will be prominent throughout. (6) ATOCHIA makes his second start off a very long layoff and he was the Levy winner a few seasons ago.

Race 4

(4) TOWNSLIGHT HANOVER was the favorite in NW18000 last out and and couldn't reach chasing slow fractions. This race is really a glorified NW12000 and if by some miracle they don't crawl to the half this gelding can charge home. (1) OUR DRAGON KING always gives a good accounting of himself and he draws best here. (3) ORILLIA JOE was a game winner last week from the outside post and clearly he's capable of repeating.

Race 5

(6) HANG TEN looked to be in good spots the last two weeks but they cancelled; this looks to be a tougher task tonight but the price should be right. (1) SOURCE OF PRIDE finally lands a good post and he'll be much more involved. (2) ROCK TO GLORY is tough to endorse on top but he's got a chance to save ground and hit the ticket.

Race 6

(6) TAKE IT BACK TERRY has been razor sharp but keeps having bad racing luck; stay on board because one of these weeks he'll get there. (4) MICHAEL'S POWER couldn't last the duration last out after cutting the mile from the eight hole; leading driver Dube should be firing with him again. (1) DAPPER DUDE wasn't bad in his local debut and he should get a smoother trip from the rail.

Race 7

(8) NOT AFRAID was tons the best last Sunday in the added-distance event and judging by that effort he's impossible not to endorse here. (4) BACKSTREET HANOVER missed time but finished willingly last out and he can build off that effort. (6) AWSOME VALLEY was stuck in the second tier last week; tonight with nose on gate he can be more prominent.

Race 8

(3) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS bumps up to face tougher but the DiDomenico trainee may be sharp enough to get the job done. (4) WARRAWEE NEEDY will likely be firing and going fast but the big question is always will he last the duration? (1) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP has done everything right since joining the Lachance barn.

Race 9

(1) STOLEN CAR doesn't seem to win as often as he should but his current form is tough to dismiss. (4) VALIDIUS DEO gets some post relief off two no-chance tries. (6) THAT'LL BE THE REI flashed speed against lesser upon arrival and raced decently; Harmon trainee should be a big price here and can be considered underneath.

Race 10

(3) KIWI IDEAL N is up a notch in class off two stellar efforts in defeat and the Cassar trainee faces no standouts. (6) MICKEY HANOVER backed up from the pocket with no excuse last out versus Open types; clearly he's better than that. (2) STONEHOUSE ADAM will be right up close to the pace and he's got a shot based on that angle.

Race 11

(2) LORENZO DREAM raced very well off the bench to be second best to Not Afraid in the Open. Tonight he drops, lands a good post and looks extremely logical here. (5) HERE COMES NUMBERS bumps up off an easy win and he'll be leaving the gate. (3) STRUCK BY LINDY has raced well in her two local appearances.

Race 12

(4) CASIMIR JITTERBUG rarely puts in a bad effort and he should be close enough to strike in the finale. (8) P H SUPERCAM has come back sharp in 2015 and he's shown solid speed in his last two, possibly enough to overcome the eight hole. (5) HEEZ ORL BLACK N has quickly proven for Vallee that he belongs with these.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Naught Grace, 7-2
(5th) Brass Pear, 4-1


Charles Town (1st) Java for Two, 8-1
(4th) Roche, 6-1


Delta Downs (4th) Tough Thomas, 3-1
(8th) Dreamy Kid, 7-2


Fair Grounds (4th) Hail to the Nile, 3-1
(7th) Skip the Pinot, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Due Believe, 6-1
(5th) Siberian Winter, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Silver Lucky Q, 10-1
(10th) X Y Jet, 5-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Miss Lucky, 5-1
(5th) Champagne Tony, 10-1


Laurel (4th) Aruban Truth, 6-1
(6th) Remember the Prom, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (4th) Brass Buckle, 9-2
(8th) Tupelo Playboy, 3-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Sea of Change, 3-1
(6th) Jan's Perfect Star, 7-2


Parx Racing (1st) Vianney Lane, 9-2
(9th) Irish Rose, 10-1


Penn National (3rd) Aisle Ring, 3-1
(6th) Magic Lion, 9-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Pay the Debt, 4-1
(4th) Smoove It, 4-1


Sam Houston (2nd) Senor Smokey, 7-2
(10th) Expect Distinction, 9-2


Sunland Park (6th) Theplane Theplane, 8-1
(10th) Montezuma Creek, 10-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Drill Sergeant, 7-2
(11th) Welcome Speech, 10-1


Turf Paradise (1st) Sea Side Story, 7-2
(6th) Thrills and Chills, 4-1


Turfway Park (1st) Poblanita, 6-1
(9th) Vanilla Man, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 184 Betting Preview
By Brian Edwards

Fresh off an appearance in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue, 'Rowdy' Ronda Rousey is poised to defend her women's bantamweight title against unbeaten Cat Zingano in Saturday's main event for UFC 184 at Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Rousey (10-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) has never tasted defeat and has three first-round finishes in her four career Octagon appearances. She owns scalps over Liz Carmouche, Miesha Tate, Sara McMann and Alexis Davis. In her last two fights, Rousey needed just 66 seconds and 16 seconds to finish McMann and Davis, respectively.

Zingano (9-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is expected to be Rousey's toughest challenge to date. In her UFC debut on April 13 of 2013, Zingano defeated Tate by TKO (knees and elbows) in the third round of a battle that garnered Fight of the Night honors.

The victory earned Zingano a coaching spot next to Rousey for the next season of The Ultimate Fighter. Then Zingano would challenge Rousey for her belt. However, in a cruel twist of fate, Zingano wrecked her knee in training and was forced to undergo surgery.

She would be out for more than a year. During this time, her husband and coach, Mauricio Zingano, began to have problems. The couple separated and on Jan. 13 of 2014, Mauricio committed suicide, leaving behind Cat and their son.

Zingano has obviously been through hell over the last 13 months, but she made a triumphant return to the Octagon at UFC 178. Nearly 18 months after beating Tate to earn a title shot, Zingano did the same by overcoming a slow start and dominating the second and third rounds to defeat Amanda Nunes by TKO.

As of Thursday, most books had Rousey installed as a -900 favorite with Zingano as the +600 underdog (risk $100 to win $600). The total was 1.5 rounds ('under' -165, 'over' +130). If you like Rousey to win by armbar like she's done in eight of her 10 career victories, there's a proposition wager at 5Dimes for the champ to win by submission at a -185 price.

Prediction: The -900 price is way too expensive to even consider. To mull betting against Rousey, well, that's not necessarily a smart notion, either, although I won't bash a bettor for taking a shot for a small amount on a huge underdog. I think you risk the -185 (instead of -900) and hope Rousey prevails by armbar (submission). The total is interesting. Tate is the only fighter to last more than 1.5 rounds against the former Olympian in Judo. And we know Zingano is tough as hell and took out Tate. I'm not sure I'll play it, but if the 'over' gets more rich (like +150 or better rather than the current +130), then maybe it's worth a small investment.

In the co-main event, Holly Holm will make her UFC debut against Raquel Pennington. As of Thursday, most spots had Holm as an enormous -900 'chalk' to Pennington, who was +600 on the comeback. The total is 2.5 rounds ('over' -165, 'under' +135).

Holm (7-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a former boxing champion in multiple weight classes who has made the transition to mixed martial arts in the last four years. She went 33-2-3 in a nine-year boxing career.

The 33-year-old Holm instantly becomes the best striker in the women's bantamweight division. The question will be how well she's developed her skills in the other aspects of the game, particularly when fights go to the ground. If she can post an impressive win, Holm might get the next shot at Rousey.

Pennington's (5-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) UFC resume has only one blemish, a split-decision loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC 171. She responded with a submission win by bulldog choke with one second remaining in the first round of her UFC 181 showdown against Ashlee Evans-Smith.

Prediction: Pass.

Jake Ellenberger (29-9 MMA, 8-5 UFC) and Josh Koscheck will collide in a pivotal welterweight fight in the careers of both fighters. Ellenberger was in the mix for a welterweight title shot before losing three consecutive fights to Rory MacDonald, Robbie Lawler and Kelvin Gastelum. Now the Omaha product is fighting to avoid a pink slip.

The same can be said for Koscheck, who has been off for more than 16 months after losing three straight bouts, including the last two by first-round knockout. The 37-year-old has twice challenged for the welterweight strap, losing decisions to Georges St. Pierre both times.

Koscheck hasn't tasted a victory since beating Mike Pierce by split decision more than three years ago at UFC 143. He KO'd Matt Hughes in his first fight after the second loss to GSP.

During his three-fight slump, Koscheck lost a split decision to Johny Hendricks in a bout I scored in favor of 'Kos' by a 29-28 count. The last two defeats came by first-round KOs to Lawler and Tyron Woodley his last time out at UFC 167.

With that said, Koscheck has enjoyed a stellar career. His victims include the likes of Hughes, Sanchez, Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson, Chris Lytle, Paul Daley and Frank Trigg.

Ellenberger, who is only 29, has wins over Nate Marquardt, Diego Sanchez, Jake Shields, John Howard and Mike Pyle on his resume. He will have an advantage in the striking department, though we should note that Koscheck does possess plenty of knockout power. Koscheck is the better wrestler and should have the advantage on the ground.

Most books have Ellenberger as a -210 favorite with Koscheck as the +175 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds ('over' -175, 'under' +145).

Prediction: Ellenberger hasn't looked impressive enough recently to warrant a wager at a price in the -200 range. Who knows what we're going to get out of Koscheck? He gave retirement a lot of thought before taking this fight. I really don't like anything but if I had to pick it, I'd go for the underdog odds with 'under' 1.5 rounds for the +145 payout.

In the pay-per-view opener, Tony Ferguson and Gleison Tibau will square off in what should be an interesting lightweight showdown. Most books have Ferguson installed as a -245 favorite, while Tibau is +205 on the comeback. The total is 2.5 rounds ('under' +135, 'over' -165).

Ferguson (17-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC) has won four straight fights since suffering his lone UFC loss to Michael Johnson by unanimous decision. He was the winner of Season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter.

Tibau (33-10 MMA, 16-8 UFC) has won three in a row, including a split-decision win over Norman Parke in a fight he took on short notice five weeks ago. Once again, Tibau is stepping in on short notice to face Ferguson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 184 Preview

Event: UFC 184
Date: Saturday, Feb. 28th, 2015
TV/Time: (PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Staples Center
City: Los Angeles, California

Women's Bantamweight Bout: Ronda Rousey (10-0) vs. Cat Zingano (9-0)

Line: Rousey -900, Zingano +600

Two undefeated women face-off as Ronda Rousey looks to continue an amazing stretch and hold her title against Cat Zingano.

Rousey is certainly the most known female UFC fighter and for good reason as she has dominated her competition over her 10 fights, winning in the first round nine times with seven of those coming under a minute. She has earned tons of face-time due to her nearly flawless performances and Dana White has even joked that she’ll need to start fighting men if she pounds on Zingano in this one. Rousey has been dominant with her takedowns and it is likely that she be looking to get her opponent down early and often.

Zingano will attempt to change everything with a win here but it doesn’t look like a likely result with her bouts usually going into at least the second or third round. Three of the last four fights she’s been a part of have gone to the third round and she has taken out her opponents by a knockout in each of those matchups. She is a strong fighter, but has only been in the octagon four times in as many years and may be a little rusty against one of the elites in the sport. It would be a big surprise if this fight isn’t finished up early on with Rowdy Rousey keeping her title.

Rousey isn’t overly aggressive with her punches, landing 3.69 significant strikes per minute with 63% accuracy. She will allow her opposition to get in some hits as well, absorbing 2.33 per minute, as she looks for an opening to get them on the mat. Rousey does this early and often and is averaging a ridiculous 8.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she usually doesn’t get that far as seven of her 10 victories have come from a submission in the first round.

The armbar is her go-to move once she has her opponent reeling and she typically beats on them until she can get a nice hold on their forearm. She’s also been in the octagon plenty as she builds up her resume and has fought six times since the start of the 2012 year, so she should be warmed up and ready to go in this upcoming fight.

Zingano is an accurate fighter who can take punches until she needs to finish out the matchup. She lands 73% of the hits she goes for and typically aims for the head; which she did 49 times out of 60 significant strike attempts in her last bout against Amanda Nunes. In that fight she was also 3-for-3 in takedowns and ended it with a brutal barrage of punches and elbows in the third round.

She hasn’t shown the best defense, though, allowing 57% of strikes against her to land, but she has the innate ability to take them and move on where she wins later on as evidenced by her average fight going just over 12 minutes despite having just one go to decision. Zingano’s only hope is if she can get out of the first round against the talented Rousey, but even then she needs to avoid takedowns, which will be tough for a fighter who isn’t the quickest on her feet.

Other UFC 184 Bouts

Featherweight Matchup
Masio Fullen -155
Alexanter Torres +125

Lightweight Matchup
James Krause -200
Valmir Lazaro +165

Heavyweight Matchup
Derrick Lewis -500
Ruan Potts +375

Welterweight Matchup
Tim Means -140
Dhiego Lima +110

Bantamweight Matchup
Norifumi Yamamoto -260
Roman Salazar +207

Middleweight Matchup
Mark Munoz -300
Roan Carneiro +235

Lightweight Matchup
Tony Ferguson -210
Gleison Tibau +170

Welterweight Matchup
Alan Jouban -425
Richard Walsh +325

Welterweight Matchup
Jake Ellenberger -230
Josh Koscheck +185

Womens Bantamweight Matchup
Holly Holm -800
Raquel Pennington +550

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cormier: Rousey "far and away better" than anyone
Justin Hartling

Daniel Cormier doubted Ronda Rousey once. It looks like he learned.

"She is far and away better than the rest of the division,” Cormier told MMAJunkie. “I think Cat will test her, but if she leaves any opportunity out there, Ronda will get it and Ronda will get on it."

'DC' thought that Sara McMann would be able to stop 'The Rowdy One,' but Rousey won that fight in 1:06.

Rousey is currently -900 to top Cat Zigano (+600) at UFC 184.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sports books enjoyed a great Daytona 500 with Joey Logano winning because hardly anyone bet him. The books all had Logano low to start with at 12/1, but when all the action started showing up on Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson, they raised Logano to 18/1 and still not many takers. Like a broken record, once again, the house does extremely well in a restrictor-plate race.

The Sprint Cup series travels to Atlanta’s 1.5-mile track this week where value is usually shifted back to the bettors because instead of 35 drivers having a chance to win, there are only about 15 with a legitimate shot. But this is year is a little different because of the new rules package that will see horsepower cut down from 850 to 725 as well as the rear spoiler shortened from eight to six inches.

As much of a crap shoot as Daytona was coming in, the cars were exactly the same as what was run last season so it wasn’t hard to forecast that Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing would be the cars to beat. They solidified that notion during practices, but still lost to Logano.

This week is much tougher because of less horsepower and down force. The cars figure to run a little more loose which may benefit a few drivers, but we still don’t know because there was no open testing in January to figure this new car out. The only testing that occurred happened with a few drivers in closed Goodyear tire testing. Most crew chiefs will be going off of notes from those sessions ran by a teammate and will be coming in cold with little idea of how they’ll run this weekend.

To get every team better acclimated to the new cars, NASCAR has scheduled five hours of testing on Thursday then they’ll start their regular race weekend schedule with practice and qualifying on Friday and the final two practices on Saturday.

So from an odds-making and bettors’ standpoint, you have to be careful here. The bookmaker can just lower odds on several drivers and wait to see what happens with testing. Regardless of the changes, the big-money teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske Racing all figure to be fast right off the hauler, but there is still that hint of uncertainty compared to other 1.5-mile tracks over the past three seasons. For the bettor, there is almost no reason to bet early because you could get stuck with a driver that doesn’t perform well in Thursday’s test.

The best bet scenario for wagering this week is to wait until at least seeing Thursday’s practice times. There is really nothing you can go off of that makes any bet a good one prior to Thursday. Several of the drivers haven’t even been able to drive the cars with the new rules package and Thursday will be their first go-around.

Here’s the NASCAR betting strategy I follow each week that I’ll share with you. First, you start off with your core group of drivers based on history at track. This list can be anywhere from 15 to 20 drivers, but it’ll be based on how they’ve done in recent history, the past five years and the past 10 years. Certain drivers like certain tracks and over the long haul, it’s easy to identify who the best are.

After that, you’ll look at current form. In the case this week, we only have one race and Daytona doesn’t apply in any way to Atlanta and the only nugget from last week that can be found is that someone like Logano could go all out for wins with no regret since he’s already made the Chase.

Past history and current form are two pieces of information that is the foundation to set weekly NASCAR odds, but it also applies to betting. I would then forecast practices based on similar past practices and come out with an early rating on each driver. And then after seeing the practices and start position, I would upgrade or downgrade each driver and finally have a finished product ready for action.

This week in Atlanta, there is only half of the equation in play here and the remainder won’t be known until Thursday with even more solid information gained Saturday as crew chiefs do the final tuning and set-up of the car we’ll see race Sunday.

There’s only half of the equation in, so why bet now? You’ll probably have a better chance of wining a bet by just taking red or black in roulette. Isn’t that why we all wager, because we think we have some type of advantage over the odds? So my advice this week is to slow play it and see what the books do and if they make a mistake after Thursday’s all-telling practice, then you should bet the drivers who shines that weren’t updated enough.

The most likely of candidates to be good again are the big names with the new rules package, but who knows? We didn’t see a Gibbs car win on any 1.5-mile track while Keselowski and Logano combined to win five of the 11. Kevin Harvick dominated on 1.5-miles last season even though he won only one of them. Kasey Kahne’s only win of 2014 came at Atlanta, which gave him three there for his career. Jeff Gordon also makes his final start at Atlanta, a track he made his Cup debut at in 1992. He’ll be going for his sixth career Atlanta win.

One driver I know I’ll be rooting for will be Brendan Gaughan driving the No. 62 Chevy, who is now Las Vegas’ only representative in the Cup Series driving with both Kyle and Kurt Busch out. Gaughan’s last Atlanta appearance in the Cup Series was in 2004 when he finished 18th.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1 #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spurs (35-23) at Suns (31-28)

Date: February 28, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

The Phoenix Suns had difficulty adjusting after trading away two of their top scorers, but they appear to be back on track thanks in large part to Eric Bledsoe.

The San Antonio Spurs are also hoping to have put their recent woes behind them.

Phoenix goes for a third consecutive victory Saturday night against the Spurs, who try to make it two in a row as they close their annual rodeo road trip.

The Suns (31-28) recently dropped eight of nine, including their first three after shipping Goran Dragic to Miami and Isaiah Thomas to Boston. The duo was averaging a combined 31.4 points, leaving Phoenix without a good chunk of its offense.

The Suns, however, appear to have figured things out with back-to-back wins, 110-96 at Denver on Wednesday and 117-113 in overtime over Oklahoma City on Thursday. Bledsoe led the charge with 28 points, nine assists and career highs of 13 rebounds and four blocks against the Thunder.

"I just tried to show a little more enthusiasm," Bledsoe said. "My teammates, they feed off of that. That's what my coaches have been telling me, that's what my team has been telling me, just step up and that's what I'm trying to do."

Bledsoe is averaging 22.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists over the last three games. He's one of just four players averaging at least 17.0 points, 5.0 boards and 6.0 assists on the season.

"I just want to win, and win as a team," he said. "It's not about one person, but at the end of the day, I do feel like I've got a bigger load to handle now."

The Spurs (35-23) had dropped each of their four games since the break by an average of 10.0 points before beating Sacramento 107-96 on Friday. Tony Parker scored 19 points and Kawhi Leonard added 17 as San Antonio improved to 3-5 on its nine-game trek.

Parker had been limited to a combined nine points while shooting 3 of 21 over the previous three games before finding his form. The Spurs have won 18 of their last 20 when he scores at least 12.

"That was huge for us. That was huge for him," teammate Tim Duncan said of Parker. "I know he's been really hard on himself over these last couple games and really struggling, and hopefully that builds the confidence he needs and that we need him to have."

The Spurs shot just 39.8 percent but made a season-high 29 of 32 at the foul line.

San Antonio is 13-4 against the Suns since 2010-11, but it's been limited to 87.0 points per game in dropping its last two visits to Phoenix. The Spurs fell 94-89 in the desert Oct. 31 before pulling out a 100-95 home victory Jan. 9 behind 20 points from Danny Green.

Suns forward Markieff Morris had averaged 19.2 points on 62.3 percent shooting over a five-game stretch in the series before scoring three on 1-of-13 shooting in last month's defeat.

San Antonio is 15-16 on the road after finishing a league-best 30-11 last season.

The Spurs are averaging 97.3 points as the visiting team compared to 104.3 at home, and that could be a problem against the Suns, who average 107.7 on their own court to rank second in the NBA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Northern Iowa at Wichita State**

-- Wichita State (26-3 straight up, 15-11-1 against the spread) is unbeaten in 14 home games with a 6-5-1 spread record. The Shockers have won seven in a row and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six contests.

-- Gregg Marshall's team is off of Wednesday's 63-53 win over Indiana State as a nine-point road favorite. Darius Carter torched the Sycamores for 20 points and 11 rebounds on 8-of-12 shooting from the field. Fred VanVleet finished with 15 points, five assists and four rebounds, while Tekele Cotton had 12 points, six boards and handed out three dimes. Ron Baker had one of his worst games of the season, making just 1-of-11 from the field and 1-of-4 from the free-throw line. He scored a season-low three points.

-- Baker is averaging 15.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He's making 40.5 percent of his attempts from 3-point range and has a 64/35 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Baker also has 35 steals through 29 games. VanVleet averages 12.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, while dishing out 154 assists compared to just 49 turnovers. He has a team-high 53 steals.

-- Northern Iowa (27-2 SU, 16-8-3 ATS) hasn't tasted defeat since New Year's Day when it lost a 52-49 decision at Evansville in its Missouri Valley Conference opener. Ben Jacobsen's club has won 16 in a row since then and it is 10-2-3 ATS in its last 15 contests.

-- Northern Iowa is off a 68-57 win over Evansville on Wednesday, but it failed to cover for the first time since Jan. 21 as a 12-point home 'chalk.' Deon Mitchell was the catalyst with 17 points, four assists and a pair of steals. Seth Tuttle added 10 points and eight rebounds.

-- Northern Iowa is led by Tuttle, who averages team-highs in scoring (15.6 points per game), assists (3.2 APG), rebounds (6.6 RPG), field-goal percentage (62.7%) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG).

-- Northern Iowa is 18th in the RPI Rankings, going 1-1 versus the Top 50 and 7-1 against the Top 100. The Panthers' best win was over Wichita State in the first meeting.

-- Wichita State is Northern 14 in the RPI with a 1-2 record against the Top 50 and a 6-3 ledger versus the Top 100. The Shockers' best wins are over Tulsa, Seton Hall and Alabama. They have a neutral-court triumph over Memphis. In addition to the loss at Northern Iowa, Wichita State lost at Utah (69-68) and fell on a neutral court against George Washington (60-54).

-- When these MVC adversaries collided in Cedar Falls on Jan. 31, Northern Iowa collected a 70-54 win as a two-point home underdog. Tuttle enjoyed a monster performance, tallying 29 points and seven rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting from the field. Wes Washpun chipped in with 16 points, three boards, three assists and two steals. In the losing effort, VanVleet had a team-best 18 points. However, VanVleet and Ron Baker combined to make just 7-of-22 shots from the floor.

-- The 'over' is 13-12-1 overall for the Shockers, but the 'under' is 6-4 in their home games.

-- The 'over' is 12-11-3 overall for the Panthers.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore book had the Shockers favored by six.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arkansas at Kentucky**

-- For the first time since the mid-1990s when Nolan Richardson and Rick Pitino were roaming the sidelines at Kentucky and Arkansas, the Wildcats and Razorbacks are the top dogs in the SEC. And that's how it should be because these are the two best hoops programs in the league. Of course, Billy Donovan has been the reason that Florida has shared top status in the league with UK for much of the last two decades. The other reason was the dismissal of Richardson, who led the Hogs to the 1994 national title. Since his firing in 2002, Arkansas has won only one -- ONE!! -- NCAA Tournament game. But my point is this: Arkansas should be the second-best basketball program in the SEC. In terms of tradition, facilities and fan support, the Razorbacks are second only to UK in college basketball. At least that's how it should be and is this year, as Mike Anderson is about to take the Hogs to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in his four-year tenure.

-- Since failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, Kentucky (28-0 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) has gone 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games. The Wildcats went to The Hump in Starkville on Wednesday night and captured a 74-56 win over Mississippi State as 18-point road 'chalk.' Trey Lyles led the way with 18 points and six rebounds. Aaron Harrison added 16 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 12 points, 10 boards and a pair of blocked shots.

-- John Calipari's team has won all 17 of its games at Rupp Arena while posting an 8-9 spread record.

-- Arkansas (23-5 SU, 14-13 ATS) has won three in a row and four of the last five head-to-head meetings with UK both SU and ATS. The Razorbacks swept the season series last year with a pair of overtime wins over the Cats. At Rupp on Feb. 27, Anderson's squad won a 71-67 decision as a 10-point underdog. Michael Qualls led the way with 14 points.

-- Arkansas is led by sophomore power forward Bobby Portis, who leads the team in scoring (17.6 PPG), rebounding (8.5 RPG), field-goal percentage (56.4%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). Portis is probably the favorite to win SEC Player of the Year honors.

-- Arkansas has won seven in a row since losing a heartbreaker at Florida on Jan. 31, but it has failed to cover the number in three consecutive outings. The Hogs won an 81-75 decision over Texas A&M on Tuesday, but they disappointed their backers by blowing a 20-point lead and getting back-doored as 7.5-point home favorites. Portis scored a team-best 22 points, while Rashad Madden had 11 points, five board and five assists.

-- Arkansas has been a road underdog five times this year, producing a 4-1 spread record with three outright wins at Ole Miss, at SMU and at Georgia.

-- Kentucky is ranked No. 1 in the RPI with 10 wins over the Top 50 and 15 victories over Top-100 foes.

-- Arkansas is No. 19 in the RPI, going 5-2 against the Top 50 and 8-5 versus the Top 100. The Razorbacks' best win of the year came at SMU and they also have quality road wins at Georgia and at Ole Miss.

-- The 'under' is 17-11 overall for UK, 11-6 in its home games. However, the 'over' is on a 7-2 run in the Wildcats' last seven games.

-- The 'over' is 14-12 overall for Arkansas, but it has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in its last 10 games.

-- The 'over' is 6-3-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these SEC rivals.

-- One offshore had UK favored by 15 as of late Friday afternoon.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- After serving a three-game suspension, Dorian Finney-Smith will return to the lineup Saturday for Florida's home game vs. Tennessee. Michael Frazier II, UF's leading scorer, has missed five straight games with a high-ankle sprain. He's getting close to returning and is considered 'questionable' against the Volunteers. Eli Carter (8.2 PPG) missed practice Thursday and has a strep throat for the second time this season. Carter is also 'questionable.'

-- Florida was favored by six late Friday afternoon. The Gators are an abysmal 4-8 ATS in 12 games as home favorites this year.

-- Billy Donovan will be gunning for his 500th career win for the third straight game. He would become the second-youngest coach in NCAA history (behind only Bobby Knight's pace) to reach the 500-win mark.

-- I'm calling it right now -- Georgia beats Kentucky next week at Stegeman Coliseum.

-- Alabama guard Ricky Tarrant (13.1 PPG) has been ruled 'out' for the rest of the season. The transfer from Tulane suffered a leg injury against Florida and will undergo season-ending surgery.

-- Drexel suffered a crushing blow this week when star Damion Lee was ruled out for the rest of the year with a broken hand. Lee was averaging 21.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.

-- Houston's L.J. Rose (9.8 PPG, 5.3 APG) will miss the rest of the year with a foot injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Late Tips
By David Schwab

This Saturday night’s schedule in men’s college basketball features a foursome of teams in action that have serious aspirations of much bigger things come the month of March. First, the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils will play host to Syracuse in an ACC clash before two teams vying for the Pac-12 regular season title square-off against each other when No. 7 Arizona goes on the road to face No. 13 Utah. To close things out in the nightcap, we head out to the West Coast Conference where BYU will go on the road to tangle with No. 3 Gonzaga.

Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -14 ½

The Orange come into this matchup fresh-off this past Tuesday’s impressive 65-60 upset of Notre Dame as 8 ½-point road underdogs. They are now 5-2-1 against the spread this season when closing as underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Senior forward Rakeem Christmas continues to lead the way with 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds a game. Syracuse is averaging 69.2 points per game and shooting 44 percent from the field.

Duke needed overtime to get past Virginia Tech 91-86 this past Wednesday as a heavy 15 ½-point road favorite. The Blue Devils are now an even 5-5 ATS while alternating wins and losses in their last 10 games. The total has gone OVER in their last four contests. They remain the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation with 81 PPG and they are ranked third in shooting the ball with a 50.2 field goal percentage. Freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor leads Duke in both points (18.4) and rebounds (9.4) per game.

Betting Trends

-- The Orange are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 conference games and they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 19 games following an ATS win.

-- The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they have gone 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on Saturday. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 14 home games.

-- Duke has won two of three meetings since Syracuse joined the ACC last season including an 80-72 victory on Feb. 14 this year as a 7 ½-point road favorite. The Blue Devils are 2-0-1 ATS and the total has gone OVER in two of the three games.

No. 7 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Utah Utes (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Utah -2

Arizona rolled over Colorado 82-54 this past Thursday as a nine-point road favorite to improve to 13-2 SU in conference play. The Wildcats have gone a profitable 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six outings. Four of five starters scored in double figures against the Buffaloes led by freshman forward Stanley Johnson’s 15 points. He leads the Wildcats in scoring this season with 14.2 PPG and, as a team, Arizona is averaging 75.8 PPG while shooting a highly effective 49.1 percent from the field.

The Utes stayed right on Arizona’s tail in the Pac-12 title race with an 83-41 romp against Arizona State as 12-point home favorites this past Thursday. This followed a stunning 69-58 loss to Oregon last Sunday as 4 ½-point favorites on the road. They are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Utah is averaging 73 PPG and it is shooting an impressive 49.5 percent from the field. Senior guard Delon Wright has led the way with 14.2 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games following an ATS win.

-- The Utes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games played on Saturday and they are 35-13-3 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 14 home games.

-- The road team in this conference clash has gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games. Arizona has won the last 10 meetings SU and it has a 6-4 edge ATS during this winning streak.

BYU Cougars vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (ESPN2, 10 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -12

BYU brings a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS into this matchup following Thursday’s 82-69 victory against Portland as a 2 ½-point road favorite. The total has now stayed UNDER in the Cougars last four contests. Senior guard Tyler Haws has been a force this season with a team-high 22.3 points while shooting 47.6 percent from the field. The Cougars have an additional trio of players averaging 13 PPG as the top scoring team in the nation with 84.4 PPG. Defensively, they are well down the list after allowing an average of 72.4 PPG to their opponents.

The Bulldogs continue to roll to a West Coast regular season title with a perfect 17-0 SU record in conference play, but they are just 4-5 ATS in their last nine games. Gonzaga did cover a huge 17-point spread this past Thursday with a 59-39 victory at home against San Diego. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs are another team that can light-up the scoreboard with 79 PPG and they are the top shooting team in the nation with a lights-out 52.7 field goal percentage. Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer has had the hottest hand with 17 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Cougars have covered in their last four games following a SU win and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven road games.

-- The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played at home.

-- Head-to-head in this matchup, the home team has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs won the first meeting this season 87-80 while covering as five-point road favorites. The total went OVER the closing 149 ½-point line after staying UNDER in the previous seven meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

TEXAS LONGHORNS (17-11) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (22-6)

Allen Fieldhouse – Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line & Total: N/A

Texas looks to end its recent struggles with a win on the road over No. 8 Kansas Saturday.

Texas lost 71-64 at West Virginia on Tuesday and the team has now lost three straight games and seven of its past 10. The Longhorns turned the ball over 17 times against the Mountaineers and this team will need to stop making careless mistakes, as they are now on the NCAA tournament bubble after starting the season off very well. No. 8 Kansas, meanwhile, is coming off of a 70-63 loss at Kansas State on Monday and the Jayhawks have now lost two of their past three games. Kansas has also lost three straight games ATS and will need to shoot the ball better against Texas, as the team shot 15.4% from behind the arc in the loss to Kansas State.

The Jayhawks and Longhorns met on Jan. 24, when Kansas won 75-62 as a 4-point road underdog. The Jayhawks have dominated this head-to-head series recently, going 8-2 SU but just 5-5 ATS in their past 10 meetings. Texas has only won once SU in its 11 trips to Allen Fieldhouse, so it will really need to dig deep if it’s going to pick up a victory in what is a must-win game for the team. While the Longhorns are just 4-6 SU on the road this season, they are 7-3 ATS in those games. They are, however, 4-6 SU and ATS when coming off of a SU loss. Kansas, meanwhile, is 13-0 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this season. The Jayhawks are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when coming off of a SU loss this season as well. Kansas is not dealing with any injuries in this game, but Texas could be without F Jonathan Holmes (Disciplinary) after his ejection last game.

Texas started this season with a 10-1 record, but everything has gone way downhill since then. This Longhorns team was once a near-lock to earn a good seed in the NCAA tournament and now it still needs to win a game or two in order to even make the tournament. Texas is not a great team offensively, averaging 68.7 PPG (150th in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (143rd in NCAA). Where the team is solid though is on the defensive end, allowing just 60.5 PPG (40th in NCAA) thanks to 7.4 BPG (1st in NCAA). The Longhorns also rebound the ball very well, grabbing 40.3 RPG (4th in NCAA).

G Isaiah Taylor (13.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 3.5 RPG) is one of the most important players for this Texas team. Taylor is as good as any point guard in the nation, but he’s been struggling with his shot (40% FG, 29% 3PT). Taylor is also averaging 4.0 turnovers per game over the past two contests and that is something that must change. Texas needs its leader to take care of the basketball and knock down some timely jumpers against Kansas. He had 23 points and five rebounds the last time these teams played and if he can come through with that type of performance again then his team should have a good shot of pulling off a big upset.

With F Jonathan Holmes (10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) potentially missing this game for disciplinary reasons, F Myles Turner (11.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.6 BPG) could see a huge increase in minutes. He was in foul trouble against the Mountaineers and played just 24 minutes, but he had three straight games with 10+ rebounds before meeting West Virginia. Turner is a good shooter and has excellent timing as a shot-blocker. He’ll need to come up big with Holmes likely missing this one. C Cameron Ridley (8.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will also need to have a big game in this one. With Holmes out, Ridley will need to be big on the glass and he’s averaging just 3.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG over the past two contests. His dip in production is a big reason this team is struggling to pull out wins. G Demarcus Holland (7.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) had a big game against West Virginia, finishing with 14 points in 29 minutes. He is an outstanding outside shooter (48% 3PT) and could provide a major offensive spark in this one.

Kansas is an extremely well balanced team, averaging 71.8 PPG (68th in NCAA) on 44.7% shooting (107th in NCAA) and allowing just 64.6 PPG (128th in NCAA). This team rebounds well (38.0 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also knows how to share the ball on offense (14.1 APG, 78th in NCAA). F Perry Ellis (14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is Kansas’ best player and he’s been on a tear lately, averaging 23.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG over the past two contests. The last time Ellis faced Texas, the forward had 14 points, five rebounds and three assists in 33 minutes.

The Longhorns could be shorthanded inside with Holmes likely to miss this game, so Ellis will need to go at the basket aggressively on Saturday. F Cliff Alexander (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) could also get a chance to play some extended minutes in this one. Alexander has played just 11 minutes or less in three straight contests, but he was a monster against Texas in their last meeting. In 27 minutes, Alexander finished the game with 15 points, nine rebounds and two assists. This could very well be a good matchup for the tough, first-year player and Bill Self may opt to give him another chance.

G Frank Mason III (12.1 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG) was lousy against Kansas State, finishing with just four points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-2 3PT) in 29 minutes. He had averaged 16.0 PPG in his previous two games and must find his stroke against a very good Texas defense. G Wayne Selden Jr. (9.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.7 RPG) is averaging just 5.3 PPG over the past three games. Selden Jr. is usually a very reliable scorer for this Kansas team, but he has gotten away from his strength of driving to the basket. The Jayhawks need him to attack the rim and not settle for jumpers against Texas or they could end up being upset at home.

SYRACUSE ORANGE (18-10) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (25-3)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line & Total: N/A

Syracuse storms into Durham to take on No. 4 Duke, looking to take out its second top-10 opponent in a row.

Only in year two of this newly christened ACC rivalry, and due to the self-imposed postseason ban for the Syracuse Orange, this game may have a different feel to it than the one where Orange Coach Jim Boeheim was rendered jacketless in 2014. Postseason or not, Syracuse has gone 3-3 SU (3-3 ATS) since announcing its punishment on Feb. 4th, but they’ve come to play in their biggest games, with wins over then No. 12 Louisville, and a win on Tuesday at No. 9 Notre Dame.

No. 4 Duke is fresh off a shockingly close overtime victory at ACC bottom-feeder, Virginia Tech (91-86) on Wednesday (a game they were favored to win by 16). Duke does, however, stretch their win streak to 8 games with the win. They also welcomed back stalwart freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 67% FG) from a 1-game absence due to an ankle injury. Okafor responded with a monster outing in Blacksburg on Wednesday, going for a career-high 30 points. During Duke’s current eight game win streak, they’re 4-4 ATS. The Blue Devils are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at home in conference this season. The total has gone OVER in each of Duke’s last four games. Syracuse is 4-3 SU (2-4-1 ATS) on the road in conference this season, and the total has gone Under in four of Syracuse’s past six road games.

Historically, Duke is 2-1 SU (2-0-1 ATS) versus the Orange since Syracuse joined the ACC last season. Syracuse’s lone win was the inaugural ACC meeting between these two that resulted in a thrilling 91-89 win in the Carrier Dome. Duke won the most recent meeting, 80-72 (barely covering the 7.5-point spread) just two Saturdays ago in Syracuse, as Okafor led the way with 23 points and 13 rebounds. The three results in this series to date have all come within two points of the spread at tip time.

With no postseason play to aim for, every ranked opponent has become the Syracuse Orange’s “Super Bowl”, so to speak. For senior four-year starter, C Rakeem Christmas (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) this is especially true. Enjoying a spectacular year, having quadrupled his career scoring average in the previous three years, Christmas is arguably the most improved player in the country. While Christmas is shooting 57% from the field this season, he struggled mightily at home versus Duke earlier this month to just 5-for-17 from the field and 11 points. Given that Syracuse plays zone, and Duke has started to play more zone in conference play as well, you won’t see as much of “Christmas versus Okafor” as you’d think, but given that he fouled out in only 28 minutes against Notre Dame on Tuesday, Christmas will have to be diligent on defense to avoid being torpedoed with fouls in one of the harshest settings for visiting players in all of sports, Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Syracuse G Michael Gbinije (13 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG) is also enjoying a career season. He’ll make his second appearance visiting the campus that got his letter-of-intent, as Gbinije is a Duke transfer. Now given 35 minutes per game to spread his wings, Gbinije scored a career-high 27 points (five threes) at home in the loss to Duke earlier this month. Gbinije has been a dynamo in the past eight games, filling up the box score regularly while leading the Orange in scoring (18.4 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.6 SPG, 54% FG, 48% 3PT). The Orange, who only regularly play six men, will also need junior sharpshooting G Trevor Cooney (13.5 PPG, 1.9 SPG, 2.4 threes/game) to find his touch, as he’s hit an awful 11-game stretch (32% FG, 23% 3PT – 20-for-89) that can be partially attributed to a sore back (according to Coach Boeheim). The vaunted 2-3 zone has been very effective as of late, as only Duke has broken 65 points versus the Orange in their past four games. The Orange held both Louisville and Notre Dame, their last two top-25 wins, to .96 and .87 points per possession, respectively. However, they didn’t have such luck against Duke (1.16 points per possession; 47% FG, 7-15 from three).

The Blue Devils will have to perform better than their escape act in Blacksburg on Wednesday if they are to defeat a hungry Syracuse team. They match up well versus the Orange, though. Even with their shortened rotation, Duke boasts enough size with Okafor, F Justise Winslow (12 PPG, 5.7 RPG – 15.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG in last four games) and F Amile Jefferson (7.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to create a big advantage on the glass versus the smaller Orange. The Blue Devils rank second in conference on the glass (37.4 RPG) during conference play, and outrebounded Syracuse 42-32 in the Carrier Dome earlier this month in their win. Duke’s backcourt of G Tyus Jones (11.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, 88% FT) and G Quinn Cook (15.9 PPG, 47% FG, 41% 3PT – 2.9 threes/game) have also been a terror to contain for defenses lately, as you’d expect for a Blue Devils team that has such an explosive offensive attack (81 PPG, 5th in NCAA).

Cook has been especially unconscious lately, averaging 23 points per game in his last four contests while shooting 54% from the field and hitting an absurd 4.3 threes per game on 50% shooting from deep. Cook, a senior, has scored at least 22 points in four of his last five contests while the freshman, Jones, has averaged an eye-popping 8.8 assists per game on those last five contests as well. The issue with Jones and Cook, however, are on the defensive end, as time and time again, they’re allowing career performances to their guard counterparts (Gbinije in Duke’s last meeting with Syracuse; Virginia Tech reserve Jalen Hudson going for 20 on Wednesday, Devon Bookert on Florida State going for a season-high 23 points on Feb. 9). G Matt Jones (5.6 PPG, 19.6 MPG) has seen a boost in production and playing time (7.8 PPG, 26 MPG) as a regular member of the rotation with the departure of G Rasheed Sulaimon. While Jones is far-and-away the last option on offense for the Blue Devils, the sophomore carries with him a reputation as a knock down shooter, which he’s not yet realized in his young career. Still, don’t be surprised to see him playing a key role in stretching Syracuse’s vaunted zone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball Top 25 Saturday betting cheat sheet

Selection Sunday is quickly closing in and teams will need to make an impression if they want to hear their name called on that hallowed day. We break down games with the top teams in the nation and which bubble teams could be looking for a marquee win in our cheat sheet.

Michigan Wolverines at (14) Maryland Terrapins

* The Wolverines are giving up three more turnovers and making three less shots on the road compared to home this season.

* Maryland is 9-0 in games decide by six points or fewer, including all four wins during its current streak.

(15) Louisville Cardinals at FSU Seminoles

* Generating offense was already a problem for No. 15 Louisville prior to the dismissal of Chris Jones and early returns suggest the situation isn’t going to improve without him. The Cardinals have failed to top 60 points six times in ACC play – including each of their last three games.

* Xavier Rathan-Mayes put on one of the most impressive scoring featgs in recent memory this week against Miami. Rathan-Mayes scored 26 consecutive Florida State points without missing a shot. He went 8 for 10 in the final five minutes, sinking six 3-pointers, and finished with 35 points to tie his career high.

(10) Northern Iowa Panthers at (11) Wichita State Shockers

* Northern Iowa has allowed only four players to reach 20 points in a game this season.

* The Shockers have lost just three games this season by a combined 23 points. Sixteen of those came in the Jan. 31 loss to Northern Iowa as 2-point road faves.

Dayton Flyers at (24) VCU Rams

* Dayton is coming into this game firmly on the bubble. They are sporting a 21-6 record this year, but have yet to beat a Top 25 team and are only 4-5 on the road. A big win here will go a long way to getting they named called on Selection Sunday.

* The Rams are 6-of-42 from 3-point range in their past two losses, and 28-of-75 in their past three victories.

(6) Villanova Wildcats at Xavier Musketeers

* "We did not do a good job with our post defense," coach Jay Wright says of 'Nova's last game against Xavier. "We're not the kind of team that can go 1-on-1 in there and I thought we got caught 1-on-1 in there a lot. They also hurt us on the offensive glass."

* Matt Stainbrook had 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting in the first meeting with the Wildcats but enters this one in a funk. Stainbrook is averaging 5.7 points over the last three games while going 6-of-17 from the field.

TCU Horned Frogs at (17) Oklahoma Sooners

* TCU is averaging 70.5 points in their last four games after scoring just 59.4 points during a seven-game losing streak

* It seems nobody really wants to in the Big 12 this season with Oklahoma, WVU and Iowa State all tied for second. "We knew we had to start winning these games," forward Kenrich Williams said. "We want to get in the NCAA Tournament, we want to do well in the Big 12 tournament and we're just fighting to get into the postseason."

(23) Butler Bulldogs at DePaul Blue Demons

* Sophomore forward Andrew Chrabascz, Butler's third-highest scorer, is expected to miss his fourth-straight game Saturday. The Bulldogs are 2-1 straight up and 1-2 agianst the spread in three games without him.

* Defense has been the main problem for the Blue Demons who are allowing an average of 74.2 points per game, which ranks 336th nationally.

(18) UNC Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes

* UNC is coming off an appearance that saw them score the fewest points at the Smith Center ever. “We got the shots we wanted,” Paige told reporters. “We didn’t make very many of them obviously. Sometimes the ball doesn’t go in.”

* Angel Rodriguez was only shooting 21.4 percent from the field in the previous 11 games, before posting a career-high in points last game.

(19) West Virginia Mountaineers at (20) Baylor Bears

* “We did a terrible job in pressure and we did a terrible job rotating out of pressure,” said coach Bob Huggins about WVU's first game against Baylor. “We got down and I think we tried to catch up all at once."

* The Bears shot a blisteringly-hot 53.8 percent (14-26) from three-point range in a 79-70 over Iowa State in their last game Wednesday. The Mountaineers rank 279 in the Nation defending the three at 36.8 percent on the season and have allowed opponents to shoot 48.7 percent from beyond the arc in their last three games.

(13) Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats

* "I don't know if you can say they get embarrassed a little bit, but they find a way to get back to work. They do a good job of getting over those tough losses when they have them," said ISU coach Fred Hoiberg. "I'm confident that we will bounce back."

* This matchup could be dictated on the glass. Grabbing just 31.4 boards per game, Kansas State ranks an eye-opening 306th in the country in rebound per game. The Cyclones rank 80th with 36.3 rebounds per game.

Virginia Tech Hokies at (3) Virginia Cavaliers

* The Hokies are still looking for their first road win of the season, making them one of only two D1 teams with that distinction. VT also failed to cover in their past three.

* Virginia will be without leading scorer Justin Anderson for a sixth-straight game Saturday and will likely be without starting point guard London Perrantes.

(16) Arkansas Razorbacks at (1) Kentucky Wildcats

* “[A Win] would mean a lot to Razorback Nation,” forward Alandise Harris told CBS Sports Radio. “But to us, it would just be a game that we feel we can win. We beat them last year two times. It would just be another win for us.”

* The Wildcats are playing at another level – especially on the defensive end, where they’re holding opponents to 52.7 points per game on 34.3 percent shooting. After outscoring its last four opponents by an average of 26.3 points

Texas Longhorns at (9) Kansas Jayhawks

* Keep an eye on Texas' senior forward Jonathan Holmes. He was ejected for elbowing West Virginia's Devin Williams Tuesday and could be held out of Saturday's game. Holmes is averaging 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

* Kansas' bench has outscored its opponent's bench in 10 of the last 13 games. The Jayhawks' bench has outscored its opponent's bench 295-154 for a 22.7 to 11.8 average in the last 13 games.

Syracuse Orange at (5) Duke Blue Devils

* In four meetings since the 1997-98 season, Syracuse has not covered the spread against the Blue Devils. The Orange have gone 2-0-2 against the spread in those four games.

* Jahlil Okafor continues to dominate on his way to the likely top pick in the NBA draft, but it has been wearing on the freshman. “Jah’s tired,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski admitted to reporters. “He hasn’t been running. And he played through that. He wanted to win. You don’t teach that. That’s why this group is so good.”

Boise State Broncos at (22) San Diego State Aztecs

* Since the calendar turned to 2015, Derrick Marks has elevated his game to a new level. Marks ranks No. 2 in the country in scoring in 2015, averaging 23.6 points per game and has led the Broncos in scoring 12 of the 14 games

* "He's back where he belongs and where he feels comfortable," head coach Steve Fisher said of senior Dwayne Polee II. The forward had missed 15 games this season with an irregular heartbeat before playing in the Aztecs last game. "He's back home on the basketball court. Dwayne has been a huge piece to our success since the moment he got to San Diego State."

(7) Arizona Wildcats at (12) Utah Utes

* Utah has not given up more than 72 points in a game all season and is 22-0 when leading with five minutes remaining

* Arizona is 20-0 when its bench outscores the opponent's reserves.

BYU Cougars at (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs

* BYU comes into this game winning seven of their past eight games, including one against St. Mary's who is one game up on the Cougars for second in the WCC. A win against Gonzaga would give them a marquee name on their resume and they only lost to the Bulldogs by seven earlier this year.

* Gonzaga backers have cleaned up at the betting window when these programs meet. The Bulldogs are 6-1-1 against the spread in the previous eight meetings dating back to February of 2012.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Arizona at Utah

Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes (-1.5)

The two best teams in the Pac-12 square off Saturday night when No. 7 Arizona travels to face No. 12 Utah. The Wildcats have won five in a row and lead the Utes by one game in the race to be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. The Utes have captured six of seven and bounced back from their only loss in that stretch with a dominant performance their last time out.

Utah got points from 11 different players, shot 63.3 percent and held Arizona State to 28 percent in Thursday's 83-41 romp of the Sun Devils. Delon Wright, an All-American candidate who led the team with 12 points on Thursday, will be honored on senior day prior to Saturday's contest. Arizona's current stretch of 11 wins in 12 games features 10 double-digit victories, including a 69-51 triumph against Utah last month and an 82-54 pasting of Colorado on Thursday.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Utes as 1.5-point favorites

INJURY REPORT: Arizona - G Trey Mason (Out indefinitely, knee), Utah - N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-17.2) + Utah (-16.5) + home court (-3.0) = Utah -2.3

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "I can't see the Wildcats being favored in Utah on Saturday. I see the Wildcats as around a two-point underdog in that game." Doc's Sports.

ABOUT ARIZONA (25-3 SU, 13-2 Pac-12, 17-11 ATS, 13-15 O/U): Arizona has surpassed 80 points four times during its five-game winning streak and has given up more than 62 points on twice since the calendar turned to 2015. Five players scored in double figures against the Buffaloes, including freshman Stanley Johnson (team-high 15 points), who also led the team with 18 points and nine boards in the first matchup with Utah. “Our team has found its niche,” said guard Gabe York, who is 7-of-10 from 3-point range over his last two outings. “We’re all playing at a very high level. Our team is jelling together really well.”

ABOUT UTAH (22-5 SU, 12-3, 18-7-1 ATS, 12-12-1 O/U): The Utes blocked 10 shots in the first half against Arizona State and allowed only nine points in the opening 20 minutes as they improved to 15-3 in their last 18 games with all 15 of those wins coming by double figures. "We would've needed about 50 timeouts tonight," said Sun Devils coach Herb Sendek, whose team allowed the Utes to shoot 57.1 percent from 3-point range. "We could've called a timeout after every possession. That might have been the only way." Wright (14.2 points, 5.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals) is the do-it-all senior star for Utah, while junior Brandon Taylor (10.5 points) is looking to rebound from a three-game stretch in which he has shot 8-of-25 from the floor.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Utah.
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Utah.
* Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Pac-12.
* Utes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 Saturday games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Revenge factor in play as Shockers host UNI
Andrew Avery

The No. 11-ranked Wichita State Shockers will have revenge on their minds when they welcome No. 10 Northern Iowa to Charles Koch Arena in Wichita Saturday.

Northern Iowa handed Wichita State their only loss in Missouri Valley Conference play 70-54 back on Jan. 31.

There is plenty to play for Saturday, however, and UNI knows it.

"One, it's for a conference title. Two, it's on the road at Wichita State, that's pretty simple. Three, it's their senior night. Four, it's on College GameDay," UNI senior Seth Tuttle told the Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier following Wednesday's win over Evansville. "I could keep going."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

VCU/Dayton are two of four teams tied atop Atlantic 14. VCU is 4-4 in its last eight games after 17-3 start; they won three of last four games, but lost to local rival Richmond Wednesday in double OT; four of last six Ram games were decided by 6 or less points. Dayton won four of last five games but lost four of last five road games they're 2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 17-2-1-10 points, A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 16-17 vs spread.

Syracuse isn't going to postseason; this is their last "big" game- they lost 80-72 (+7) at home to Duke two weeks ago, game Orange led by 11 in 1st half- they were +6 (15-9) in turnovers. Syracuse is 4-5 in last nine games, 3-2 as ACC underdog, with road losses by 13-10-6 (4-3 SU). Duke won last eight games, with six of the eight by 8 or less points and two of last three in OT- they're 2-4 vs spread in last six games. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-21 vs spread.

Georgetown (-7) trounced St John's 79-57 at home 11 days ago; Hoyas held Johnnies to 32.9% from floor- they've won last three games overall, allowing 62.3 ppg. Red Storm won its last six home games, won four of last five overall; they're 2-3 as Big East dogs. Hoyas won five of last six road games, are 3-6 as Big East favorites. Georgetown is holding teams to 41.5% inside arc, best in league. Big East home teams are 9-13 vs spread in games with spread of less than 4 points.

Four of last five Miami games were decided by 4 or less points; they had 18-point lead on Florida State with 4:52 left last game, but kid on FSU scored 30 (30!!!) points in 4:52 and 'canes won 81-77. Miami won its last three home games, three of last four overall; 0-2 as a home dog. Carolina is 3-4 in last seven games, winning last two by 29-12 they lost three of last four road games. ACC home teams are 13-11 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points.

Villanova (-9) beat Xavier 88-75 at home Jan 14, making 15-34 from arc in game they led 45-27 at half. Wildcats won/covered last nine in a row, winning last three by 26-11-28 points- they're 5-2 as road faves, winning last four road games by 13-6-3-11 points. Xavier is 3-4 in its last seven games, splitting last four at home. Villanova has outside shot at a 1-seed in NCAAs but would need to win out thru Big East tourney for that. Big East home underdogs are 11-9 against spread.

LSU (+6) won 75-71 at Ole Miss Jan 14, in brickfest where teams made 11-43 from arc. Tigers won three of last four games but split last four at home-- they covered three of last four as home favorites. Ole Miss won its last four road games, with last three by 7 or less points; they're 3-1 as road underdog. LSU is 9-6 in SEC despite turning ball over 20.5% of the time. Last six Rebel games were decided by 7 or less points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-20-1 vs spread.

Northern Iowa (+1.5) spanked Wichita 70-54 at home Jan 31, shooting 58% inside arc, 5-7 on arc in game they led by by 13 at half. UNI won its last 16 games, covering all four games as a dog this season. Wichita won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread) since UNI loss; they're 5-3 as home faves, winning last seven at by 11+ points. Shockers are 34-1 in Valley the last two years; this is chance to avenge the only loss. MVC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-11-1 vs spread.

James Madison-Hofstra could be intriguing 4-5 matchup in CAA tourney next Saturday; Dukes (+10.5) won 69-63 at Hofstra Jan 24, making 8-16 on arc in game they trailed by 12 at half. JMU won five of last six games, is 2-4 as home favorite, winning last two at home by 4-7 points. Hofstra won five of last seven games, winning last three road games, scoring 82.3 ppg- they're 0-2 as CAA underdogs. CAA home underdogs of less than 5 points are 3-9 vs spread.

Arkansas won pair of OT games with Kentucky LY; in first game both teams took 40+ FTs. Hogs' flight to Lexington got off to late start Friday due to weather concerns. Arkansas hasn't lost this year when forcing 15+ turnovers; they force TOs 24.2% of time, but can they score enough to set up press? Hogs won last seven games they're 3-0 as SEC underdogs. Kentucky is 3-4 as home favorite, winning last four home games by 11+ points. SEC double home favorites are 8-13 vs spread.

Baylor (+3.5) jumped out to 30-9 lead, coasted to 87-69 win over West Virginia three weeks ago, going 25-35 on foul line. Bears won six of their last eight games, six of last seven at home- they covered four of last five home games, but they did lose to Kansas/Oklahoma State at home. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 14-16 vs spread. Mountaineers are 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-19-20 points, winning at TCU/Texas Tech/K-State. Why are these schools in same league?

Tulsa is tied with SMU for #1 seed in AAC, which matters less in this league, with tourney at neutral site. Hurricane won 15 of last 17 games, is 6-1 on AAC road, losing last road trip by 25 at UConn. Memphis (+4) lost 73-55 at Tulsa Jan 21; they were -11 in turnovers in game that was 56-28 with 10:05left. Tigers lost two of last three at home, are 3-3 as a home favorite- they won three of last four overall. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-3-1 vs spread.

Arizona (-5.5) crushed Utah 69-51 Jan 17, outrebounding them 40-21 in game where Utes made 9-19 from arc and still lost by 18. Arizona won last five games (4-1 vs spread), covering six of eight as road favorite, with losses in Corvallis/Tempe. Utah was up 41-9 at half over ASU Thursday; they're 7-0 at home in league and can tie Arizona for first with win here. Pac-12 home teams are 10-15 in games where spread was less than four.

Eastern Washington is game ahead of Montana/NAU in Big Sky, tied for first with Sacramento; Eagles (+1) won 75-69 at Montana Feb 5, making 56% of 2's, 11-24 of 3's (Montana was 13-24),, scoring 1.22 ppp. Griz had 5-game win streak snapped by a double OT loss at Idaho Thursday; they're 4-3 on Big Sky road, 2-1 as road underdogs. Eastern is 2-5 as the home favorite their last three home games were decided by 3 points or less. Big Sky home favorites of 6+ points are 12-20-1 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'SEC Showdown'

The eyes of basketball fans along with those with a penchant towards sports gaming will be on the SEC showdown between Wildcats (28-0, 14-13-1 ATS) and Razorbacks (23-5, 14-13 ATS). Wildcats are an effective offensive team netting 74.7 points/game but their strength comes at the defensive end with it's second-ranked scoring defense (52.7 PPG) and top ranked field-goal defense (34.3%). Arkansas can keep pace offensively as they drop 79.5 through the iron but Razorbacks are not as stingy on the defense end allowing 69.6 per/contest on 42.8% from the field. This is truly a challenge to Wildcats' perfect season as Razorbacks have won/covered the past three meetings including a 71-67 OT win on Rupp Arena hardwood last season. A few betting nuggets to consider when handicapping this contest. Wildcats are on a 3-0-1 ATS stretch in conference play but remain a cash burning 6-13-1 ATS last twenty. Razorbacks are on a 1-3 ATS slide in the conference but have cashed last four as underdogs. The 'Under' has been a good choice at Rupp Arena with Wildcats going 7-21-1 O/U. Razorbacks have played 'Under' in 7 of their last 10 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

NHL teams who've won the most overtime/shootout games..........

13-7-- Anaheim Ducks-- Exactly one-third of wins came in OT/SO.

12-2-- New York Islanders-- Right now, they're #2 seed in the East.

12-4-- St Louis Blues-- 5-5 in last 10 games, are #3 seed in West.

12-7-- Nashville Predators-- Have only four home losses all season.

11-4-- Calgary Flames-- Tied with Kings for last playoff spot in West.

11-5-- Chicago Blackhawks-- Kings (1-7), Bruins (2-6) have worst SO records.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Saturday
by Alan Matthews

There were dozens of nice matchups to choose from on a huge Saturday of college basketball action. But as usual I will look at Kentucky’s march to history as the Cats face a ranked team for the first time since winning at Louisville in their nonconference finale. UK’s unbeaten odds have taken a slight shift since their win Tuesday. The Wildcats are now +180 at Sportsbook to run the table all the way through the Big Dance and -225 not to. Here’s a look at that game and two other Top-10 teams potentially on upset alert Saturday.

No. 18 Arkansas at No. 1 Kentucky (-15)

This SEC showdown is at 4 p.m. and on CBS. This might be the last ranked team that Kentucky plays until about the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament unless UK and Arkansas face off again in the SEC Tournament. The Hogs are in pretty good shape to finish second to UK in the conference and would for sure with an upset. Arkansas is currently seeded as a No. 5 in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Bracketology, facing No. 12 Wofford in the South.

Arkansas (23-5, 12-3) has won seven straight since a one-point last-second loss at Florida. The Hogs beat visiting Texas A&M 81-75 on Tuesday. The Razorbacks led by as many as 25 points in the first half, forcing 16 first-half turnovers. Bobby Portis led the way with 22 points. The sophomore probably will win SEC Player of the Year and is the only McDonald’s high school All-American on the Hogs compared to nine on Kentucky. Portis is second in the SEC in scoring at 17.6 points per game and fourth in rebounding at 8.5 per game. I took Mississippi State +19 at home against Kentucky on Tuesday, and the Bulldogs were just able to cover in a 74-56 loss. Freshman Trey Lyles led UK (28-0, 15-0) with a career-high 18 points. With 28 consecutive victories to begin the season, UK passed the 1995-96 team for the longest single-season win streak in school history. However, the school record winning streak overall is 32. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index now gives the Cats a 74 percent chance of entering the NCAA Tournament unbeaten.

Believe it or not, Arkansas has won three straight in this series. The Hogs won both last year in overtime. The win at Rupp was the Razorbacks’ first since their 1993-94 NCAA championship season.

Key trends: Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Arkansas is 1-6 ATS in its past seven following an ATS loss. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS in its past four. It has covered eight of its past 12 on Saturday. The Hogs are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Why take the underdog: I’m thrilled to watch this because the one way to combat Kentucky’s size is full-court pressure all game, and that’s what Arkansas does. I’ll take the points.

No. 7 Arizona at No. 13 Utah (-2)

The game of the year in the Pac-12 tips at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Obviously, both will make the Big Dance, but the Pac-12 regular-season title is on the line here. Arizona would clinch the top seed in the tournament with a win. Utah would need a win and some help.

Utah (22-5, 12-3) totally embarrassed a decent Arizona State team on Thursday night, 83-41. It was an incredible 41-9 score at halftime, meaning Utah had more blocks (10) in the first half than the Sun Devils points. It took four minutes for an Arizona State shot to touch the rim. Utah shot 63 percent to ASU’s 28 percent. Utah’s Delon Wright, a potential Pac-12 Player of the Year, had 12 points, five rebounds, four assists, three blocks and three steals despite not playing much in the second half. Arizona also clearly wasn’t caught looking ahead to this game as the Wildcats trashed Colorado 82-54 in the Buffs’ gym Thursday. About the only negative was that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson suffered a cut lip in the first half and a blow to the back of his head in the second half, but he returned from both to finish with 11 points and eight rebounds. Coach Sean Miller said afterward that Hollis-Jefferson was fine.

The Wildcats and Utes met Jan. 17 in Tucson and Arizona won 69-51, Utah’s worst loss of the season by far. The Utes were No. 8 and Arizona No. 10 then. Arizona was up just five at halftime, but star freshman Stanley Johnson scored all 18 of his points in the second half as the Cats pulled away. Arizona destroyed Utah on the boards, 40-19. The Utes were playing their first matchup between Top-10 teams since losing to Kentucky in the 1998 NCAA championship game.

Key trends: Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its past six on the road. The Cats are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 overall. Utah is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in the past five at Utah.

Why take the favorite: The Utes have beaten all eight Pac-12 visiting teams by 15-plus points. Arizona is clearly better than all those, but Utah is a different beast at home.

BYU at No. 3 Gonzaga (+12)

The regular-season finale in the West Coast Conference for both is at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and it’s big for both. BYU is currently among the “Next Four Out” on the March Madness projections, but I would imagine the Cougars would jump up at least one category if not two with an upset here. Gonzaga, meanwhile, already has won the WCC regular-season title but looks to run the table in the conference and keep its case for the No. 1 overall seed in the West Region for the NCAA Tournament.

BYU (22-8, 12-5) won at Portland 82-69 on Thursday. Senior Tyler Haws’ layup with 14:39 left in the first half against made him BYU’s all-time leading scorer, passing Jimmer Fredette, who finished his career with 2,599 points. Haws now has 2,614 points and his fourth in the nation in scoring at 22.3 points per game. He also reached double figures for the 117th time, tying Danny Ainge for the most in school history. The Cougars scored 23 points off Portland’s 19 turnovers and outscored its bench 32-6. Gonzaga (29-1, 17-0) started slowly Thursday against San Diego but pulled away in the second half for a 59-39 victory, its 21st straight win overall and 41st in a row at home, best in the nation. The Zags made twice as many field goals (16 vs. 8) in the second half as the first and shot 61.5 percent in outscoring the Toreros 37-22. Gonzaga held an opponent under 40 points for the 10th time in its Division I history. No team has ever gone 18-0 in WCC regular-season play, although Gonzaga has gone unbeaten in the conference four other times — there just weren’t 18 games then.

It’s never easy to win at BYU, but Gonzaga did on Dec. 27, 87-80 in the conference opener for both. The Zags led by 16 points in the first half before falling behind by seven in the second. Kyle Wiltjer scored 24 points and Kevin Pangos had 21 points and seven assists for Gonzaga. Haws had 17 and Kyle Collinsworth a triple-double with 11 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.

Key trends: BYU is 5-0 ATS in its past five games. The Cougars are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 on the road. Gonzaga is 5-2 ATS in its past seven at home. BYU is 0-5 ATS in its past five trips to Spokane.

Why take the underdog: Cougars won’t win but should stay within double digits.