Saturday 2/18/12 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Power
Bonus Play

Long Beach State @ Creighton
PICK: Creighton -4

As road tested as Long Beach State might be, I recommend backing Creighton at home here as the Blue Jays look to build off an 88-69 Valentine's Day beatdown of Southern Illinois on the road. Prior to that, the team had lost three in a row to fall out of first place in the Missouri Valley. Considering that one of those losses came by 21 at home to conference leader Wichita State, winning the MVC is no guarantee for Creighton. Therefore, they're going to need to beef up that resume for a potential at-large berth in next month's NCAA Tournament. A win over a team like LBSU would go a long way in that department. The 49ers will almost certainly be taking home the Big West berth, barring an upset in the conf tourney. They have yet to lose in 2012. Despite this impressive resume, I am recommending laying the points in this Bracket Buster matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach Comp

Flames @ Kings
PICK: Under 5

With the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames vying for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, neither team wants to be the first one to make a mistake when they square off Saturday night. Calgary trails Los Angeles by just two points for the final postseason ticket. With a premium on points, both squads will be holding the sticks a little tight and toughening up on the blueline. The Kings are one of the best defensive squads in the NHL, giving up only 2.1 goals a night – third lowest in the NHL. That’s led to a ton of under wins this season, boasting a 12-33-13 over/under record – including a 7-17-7 o/u mark inside the Staples Center. Los Angeles has been a constant under threat despite oddsmakers dropping the totals into the 5-goal range. It’s stayed below the number in seven of its last 10 with two of those finishing as a push. Calgary has also been anchored by its defense in recent outings, limiting its last four opponents to just eight total goals, going 1-1-2 over/under in that span. The Flames are 21-32-5 over/under on the year. These two teams know each other very well, with brothers Darryl and Brent Sutter serving as bench bosses for the Kings and Flames, so expect a counter to every move Saturday night. The under is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams, going a perfect 4-0 in their last four collisions in Los Angeles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones Comp

Northwestern -4

The Northwestern Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Northwestern still has an outside shot at making the Big Dance, and they'll need a win Saturday and a solid finish to earn a berth.

The Wildcats will not be short on motivation tonight after losing at Minnesota in their first meeting of the season. Northwestern is 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points/game. I look for the Gophers to suffer a hangover from their 68-78 home loss to Ohio State last time out.

Minnesota is 1-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Gophers are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the Gophers. Bet Northwestern Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond Comp

Duquesne vs. Temple
Play: Temple -10½

Highly impressed with the Owls 76-70 solid road win at Olean this week. Just hope coach Dunphy can secure a strong motivational response by his club in this spot, i.e., with road games against LaSalle and St. Joseph’s on-deck. This is a REVENGE game for Temple after being waxed 78-66 in Pittsburgh. The Owls are 56-27-2 ATS in the A-10 and 7-0 ATS versus Duquesne at home. Opposing Dukes a horrid 4-11 ATS off a SU win.

 

[Kazmania]

Jimmy the Gent? I have been tailing him this week. he has been winning

 

[kylem923]

anybody got kelso 100?

 

[Kazmania]

Jinmmy the Gent?

 

[onewinaway]

any Larry Ness G.O.M total CBB? and Vegas runner out there?
Thx and GLTA

 

[itseasy3]

Any sportsmemo?

 

[CATWINS]

Wayne root early tv game pinnacle goy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG

AQUEDUCT Race #3 at 1:15 PM Eastern

Top pick: #4 (WON FAST BULLET) - Lightly-raced grey gelding comes off an impressive win on this surface and distance facing a bit weaker on Jan. 16. Tries allowance foes again today and last fall at Belmont he finished a close-up second to "Dr. Disco", who would beat these. The top selection.

2nd pick: #6 (Quick Money) - Speedy 5-year-old by "City Zip" battled on the lead last out and held gamely to finish second of six, beaten 2 1/2 lengths racing here at this condition and distance on Jan. 11. Effort was his first three months, he loves this surface (6-2-3-1), and is a win candidate this afternoon.

3rd pick: #5 (Black Pen) - He gives his best each start and is (12-3-4-2) overall. Last out he rallied to finish third in the same race as "Money" and was just over two lengths back of that rival on the wire. Needs some pace help for a shot at the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (5th) Con the Cat, 4-1
(9th) Smooth Transition, 3-1

Beulah Park (2nd) Untuttable Moment, 8-1
(6th) Drummond Island, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Little Marie, 4-1
(7th) Gigolette, 10-1

Delta Downs (4th) Jacks Catastrophe, 8-1
(9th) Bucktown, 7-2

Fair Grounds (4th) Puckappeal, 5-1
(9th) Good New Shoes, 4-1

Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Zoe's Cajun, 3-1
(7th) Marine Fog, 6-1

Gulfstream Park (6th) High Pomeroy, 3-1
(8th) Monarchic, 3-1

Hawthorne (5th) Spencers Choice, 5-1
(8th) All Tanked Up, 6-1

Laurel (5th) Castleton Park, 4-1
(6th) Jimanator, 3-1

Oaklawn Park (3rd) Spirit Unbroken, 8-1
(10th) Schoene Franzel, 8-1

Parx Racing (3rd) Kiwi Gal, 9-2
(8th) Link Suances, 5-1

Penn National (3rd) H W Goodie, 6-1
(6th) Island Sausage, 6-1

Sam Houston (2nd) Mount Istan, 6-1
(10th) Jodeye, 9-2

Santa Anita (7th) Circle the Moon, 7-2
(10th) Miles Long Gone, 4-1

Sunland Park (8th) Seal, 10-1
(11th) Omega Storm, 4-1

Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Technical Express, 7-2
(9th) Bobbiesqueen, 8-1

Turf Paradise (3rd) Bandinis Rogue, 6-1
(9th) Orient Rose, 5-1

Turfway Park (8th) Moon, 3-1
(11th) Be Rich, 3-1

HIGHLIGHTS

For Saturday

AQUEDUCT (12:20): $75,000 As Indicated S., 4&up, 1m (4TH).
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (3:45): $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3), 3yo, 1 1/16m (8TH).
GULFSTREAM PARK (12:35): $150,000 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (G2), 4&up, 7f (10TH).
LAUREL (12:35): $200,000 Barbara Fritchie H. (G2), 3&up, f/m, 7f (8TH).
OAKLAWN PARK (2:05): $100,000 Bayakoa S., 4&up, f/m, 1 1/16m (9TH).
SAM HOUSTON (8:00): $100,000 Jim's Orbit S., 3yo, c/g, 1m (9TH); $100,000 Two Altazano S., 3yo, f, 1m (8TH).
SANTA ANITA (3:30): $200,000 Santa Maria S. (G2), 4&up, f/m, 1 1/16m (8TH).
SUNLAND PARK (2:25): $110,000 Sydney Valentini H., 4&up, f/m, 1m (10TH).
TAMPA BAY DOWNS (12:25): $75,000 Turf Dash S., 3&up, 5fT (8TH).
TURF PARADISE (2:30): $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup, 4&up, 6f (7TH).
TURFWAY PARK (1:10): $50,000 Dust Commander S., 4&up, 1m (10TH).

*all times Eastern

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Rick Needham

AQUEDUCT RACE COURSE (OZONE PARK, NEW YORK) SATURDAY FEBRUARY 18, 2012

Trainer Kathy Ritvo set the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Handicap on March 10 as the next start for multiple-stakes winner Mucho Macho Man. Ritvo gave the green light to the one-turn mile handicap after watching the 4-year-old son of Macho Uno breeze four furlongs in :48 1/5 Feb. 17 at Gulfstream Park. “He loves to train; he loves to get on the track,” said Ritvo, whose nephew, Nick Petro Jr., was aboard for the colt’s first work since capturing the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic on Jan. 28. “He was out there standing for 20 minutes before we even backed up. He takes full advantage of being out on the track. He watched all the horses go by. When you take him to another track, he does the same thing.” Mucho Macho Man, who finished third in last year’s Kentucky Derby (gr. I), was one of only three horses to compete in all three legs of last year’s Triple Crown. Following a troubled trip in the Belmont (gr. I) last June, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team One Racing’s colt was given a long vacation to mature into his large frame. He returned to action with a 5 3/4-length romp in an optional claiming allowance at Aqueduct on Nov. 9 and followed up that performance with a 1 1/2-length score in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Sunshine Millions Classic.

RACE #4 - AQUEDUCT RACE COURSE - 1:52 PM EASTERN POST
The As Indicated Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK - FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $75,000.00 PURSE

#2 SAN PABLO
#4 MARILYN'S GUY
#1 ISN'T HE PERFECT
#5 LINEBACKER

#2 SAN PABLO qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," has won 5 of 7 in his career to date racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this stakes field, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Cornelio Velasquez and Trainer Todd Pletcher send him to the post this afternoon ... they've "whacked the tote board" with 63% of their entries saddled as a team to date ... Velasquez has been in his irons on two previous occasions ... winning 'em both, and is back today for his 3rd ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!"

#4 MARILYN'S GUY takes a class drop (-2), and has hit the board in four straight, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 2nd and 3rd races back

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Michael Dempsey

AQUEDUCT Race 2 Md $35,000 (12:49 ET)
ML
FAIR

#6 Two Richards
8/1 9/2

#2 The Tapinator
2/1 2/1

#4 Fr. Peter's Missal
5/1 9/2

#7 Cat Man Fu
4/1 9/2

Analysis: #6 Two Richards showed some early interest and faded to finish ninth last out at 9/1 in a field of nine in his debut. That was decent action on the tote considering the low profile connections. The gelding did come into the race with a series of bullet works on the morning tab. He is by Golden Missile out of the stakes winner Allen's Blessing ($202K) and looks as if he should be able to handle the two turns. We will give this guy another look today as he drops into an easier spot.

#2 The Tapinator was bumped coming out of the gate, was leaned on for a few strides, came with a good move splitting runners and drifted out late in a runner up finish for a $16K tag. He steps up to the $35K level but is facing state breds here.

Race Rating: $$$

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 2,6 / 2,4,6,7

TRI: 2,6 / 2,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:46pm - Starter Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 72
Rating: 4

#6 AMELIA ROSE (ML=6/1)
#4 KRISTAL KIWI (ML=5/2)

AMELIA ROSE - I like when a pony wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this filly to win again. Jockey hops back up atop after getting to know the race horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good indicator. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a good effort in the last race within the last month. Wired the field on February 4th at Parx Racing. Quite possible she can do it again in this race. Ranks uppermost in earnings per race. A powerful outing in this event will add to the lifetime earnings. KRISTAL KIWI - Really have to believe this horse is going to be close near the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders:
#7 MISS AUDREYANNA (ML=8/5),
#3 LIBERTY FOR ALL (ML=4/1),

MISS AUDREYANNA - Looked like she was in good form on January 29th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. LIBERTY FOR ALL - In the last affair this steed finished fourth. Doesn't show much potential for her chances this time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts

Beulah Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:43pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating: 4

#5 UNTUTTABLE MOMENT (ML=8/1)
#6 STILL SMOLDERING (ML=7/5)

UNTUTTABLE MOMENT - Nice winning percentage this rider and handler duo have been putting together. Sub-par try last time out at Beulah Park was due to the off-going (he finished fifth). Have to give a better effort right here without a sloppy track. STILL SMOLDERING - Thomas brings him back again. I advocate you stay with this live gelding. Ranked at the top in earnings per race. Another confirmation that this animal is the class of the race.

Vulnerable Contenders:
#2 TEETEE'S TAPIT (ML=3/1),
#3 C O RINGO (ML=7/2),
#1 PLURIES (ML=6/1),

TEETEE'S TAPIT - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt route. C O RINGO - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he just misses often. PLURIES - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 6/1. Improbable that the speed rating he garnered on February 1st will hold up in this race. Hard to bet this one from the one post. His history is telling you not to.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Ellis Starr at Santa Anita Park

Race #2 - Rating = 2

#4 Cloud Hopper - Fair odds 2/1
#2 Smoking G - Fair odds 2/1
#6 Our Boy Benjamin - Fair odds 2/1

Cloud Hopper broke his maiden at this mile turf trip here at SA in his most recent start and therefore is a perfect fit at this first allowance level, with improving to do as Talamo rides back 3rd off a layoff and in his 2nd ever turf route.

Smoking G also won his last start, on turf, but in a sprint, so the only real question mark is whether he can run as well around two turns, which his breeding suggests he can. As such, he must be strongly respected for any and all wagers we make involving this race.

Our Boy Benjamin broke his maiden as well when last seen, at this mile turf trip, but 2 months ago. Nevertheless, Berrios is up today as for the win and this well bred colt could be coming from far back once again to get up in time so rounds out our trio of contenders.

 

[varkeyboy]

any Larry Ness G.O.M total CBB? and Vegas runner out there?
Thx and GLTA

Very interested in LARY NESS GOM Total myself!!!!! Thanks for all that you do fellas.

 

[ron310]

anyone have 3g sports (tony karpinsky's) 2 10* plays today

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--> [FONT=&quot]Saint Mary’s at Murray State Predictions[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]By Doc’s Sports[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Saturday’s matchup between the host No. 14 Murray State Racers (25-1) and No. 16 Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-4) is easily the best-ever matchup in the decade-long history of ESPN’s BracketBusters games. Those are staged games by the network(s) between mid-majors with high RPI ratings to help boost teams’ RPI come Selection Sunday for a potential at-large NCAA Tournament bid. How big is it Saturday? Even Dick Vitale will be on hand for the ESPN telecast, his first visit to Murray State.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot](As part of the BracketBusters deal, Murray State will make a return trip to St. Mary's sometime over the next two seasons.)[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Betting Storylines[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Would it be possible for a team that was once ranked in the Top 10 in the nation and was the country’s final unbeaten club to not get an at-large NCAA Tournament bid? Some experts believe it is for Murray State should the Racers lose one more regular-season game and then not win the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament (they already won the regular-season title for the third year in a row). [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]That’s because Murray State’s strength of schedule is in the 200s, three of its wins have come against non-Division I teams, and a large chunk of the rest have come against teams in the 200s or worse in RPI. Still, it’s hard to imagine even a mini-losing streak would cause Murray State to be left out thanks to solid nonconference wins over Harvard (a total blowout), Southern Miss, Dayton and Memphis.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, appeared a lock to end Gonzaga’s reign as the West Coast Conference regular-season champion (11 years in a row, although SMC tied last year) before a stunning home blowout loss Wednesday night to Loyola Marymount, 75-60. That was the Gaels’ final home game of the season and their first home loss. They still control their own destiny in the WCC. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]And Wednesday’s defeat was exceptionally painful for Saint Mary’s. Gaels point guard Matthew Dellavedova, the heart and soul of the club and likely the WCC Player of the Year, twisted his right ankle in the game and is questionable for this one. The Aussie is one of 11 national finalists for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award and leads Saint Mary's with averages of 15.7 points and 6.4 assists in 37 minutes per game. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Frankly, there is no reason for Saint Mary’s to play Dellavedova in this nonconference game with the WCC title as the target and the Gaels assured of an NCAA spot. In addition, shooting guard Stephen Holt also hurt his ankle in Wednesday’s game and didn’t make the trip to Kentucky. He's the team’s best perimeter defender and is averaging 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Holt probably is out weeks.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The only healthy guards listed on the Gaels' roster are Jorden Page, who averages 8.3 points a game, and redshirt freshman Zach Sanchez, who has played seven minutes all season. This should be a major problem as Murray State is a guard-oriented team, led by Ohio Valley Player of the Year candidate Isaiah Canaan (19.2 points per game, second in OVC, and also a Cousy finalist).[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Saint Mary’s and Murray State have met twice, with the Gaels winning both, but not since 2006. They do have one common opponent: San Francisco. Back on Nov. 25 in Alaska, Murray State beat the Dons, 70-67, on the way to winning the Great Alaska Shootout. SMU beat WCC foe San Francisco, 87-72, in Moraga, Calif., on Jan. 9.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Betting Odds and Trends[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]I had decided ahead of time to preview this game because, well, it’s the best BracketBusters matchup we have seen and only one of two Top-25 matchups on a fairly weak Saturday (Ohio State-Michigan being the other). But with Dellavedova’s status up in the air, the line no doubt will be in flux. It opened as SMU -2.5 with no total but expect some movement on the side.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]SMU is 10-11 ATS overall and 4-4 on road. MSU is 10-9-2 ATS overall and 3-6-1 at home. ‘Over/under’ records: SMU 11-10, MSU 11-10. Saint Mary’s is 0-4 ATS in its past four but 4-1 ATS in past five nonconference games. Murray State is 4-0-1 ATS in past five nonconference games but 1-6 ATS in past seven at home. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Predictions[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]This all hinges on Dellavedova. I don’t think he plays as there is really no point, and the Gaels, who don’t exactly have a large athletic budget, had to travel across country not exactly in style. In fact, the morning after their LMU loss, the Gaels boarded a flight bound for Kansas City, to make a connection to Nashville, where they practiced and spent the night before making a two-plus hour drive Friday to Murray, Ky. They'll bus back to Nashville after the game Saturday night, then work their way back to California. That has to take a lot out of the team. Welcome to a mid-major program.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Still, if Dellavedova plays, I like the deeper, bigger Gaels to cover. But if not, Murray State is the pick here. It’s arguably the biggest game in school history, at least at home. And a win gets the Racers off any perceived “bubble.”[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]