Saturday 2/11/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit Bonus Play on Suns/Rockets OVER 231.5

While this is one of the highest totals of the NBA season, I don't believe it's high enough. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. The Suns and Rockets have topped 231.5 points in each of their last three meetings with combined scores of 246, 236 and 239 points, respectively. I expect we get more of the same tonight as this game sails well OVER the posted total Saturday.

 

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DUSTIN HAWKINS

Bonus Play on Thunder +7 -105

 

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JESSE SCHULE

This is a Free #NBA play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total.

The Golden State Warriors visit the Thunder Saturday, in Kevin Durant's first game back at Oklahoma City. This will be the third meeting this season, and the Warriors won the previous two at home. Both of those games were high scoring, but neither game reached the inflated total. Once again the Bookmakers are calling for a shootout, with another inflated number. These teams have failed to reach the total in four straight meetings, and the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. This is a huge game for both teams, and we should see both sides giving 100 percent on both offense and defense. The Warriors have gone under in 19 of their last 26 road games, while the Thunder have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record. The Warriors dominated the first two meetings, and Kevin Durant went off for 39 and 40 points (his two highest totals of the season). Playing on back to back nights, and dealing with all the emotions, I could see Durant struggling in tonight's game.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MATT FARGO
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Evansville vs. Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois-3½

We are catching a very solid line with Southern Illinois as it returns home following a pair of road game. The Salukis defeated Loyola last Saturday but fell to Northern Iowa on Wednesday as the offense managed just 41 points against the Panthers which is the lowest scoring output of the season. They fell to 7-6 in the MVC which is still good for a tie for third place in the conference and the return home should keep them there. They are 10-4 at home with the two home conference losses coming against 12-1 Illinois St. and Northern Iowa by a point. Evansville has had a rough go of it after going 25-9 last season including a 12-6 record in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 3-10 in the MVC despite a pair of wins in their last two games as they went through a nine-game losing streak prior to that. Both of these recent wins have come at home and on the highway, Evansville is 1-10 with the lone victory coming at Austin Peay back in December. Going back, the Salukis are 22-9-3 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game while the Purple Aces are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. Play (570) Southern Illinois Salukis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville -10.5

Look for a big effort today from the Louisville Cardinals, who are coming off their worst loss of the season. They lost to Virginia for a second time this season, this time 55-71 on the road. The Cavaliers have clearly had their number over the last few seasons.

However, that loss comes with an asterisk. Second-leading scorer Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg), third-leading scorer Deng Adel (11.1 ppg) and fifth-leading scorer Mangok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg) all missed that game. But now all three are expected to be back against Miami Saturday, giving the Cardinals a huge boost that isn't being factored in enough with this point spread.

Miami has been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season. The Hurricanes are a woeful 6-15 ATS in all lined games this year. Now they'll be up against a fired up Louisville squad that is 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.

The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Bet Louisville Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Friars (+) over Bulldogs-

No. 21 Butler is in third place in the Big East but have victories against both clubs in from of them in the standings with wins over Villanova and Xavier. Providence on the other hand in just 4-8 in conference but and outstanding 11-3 at home. The Friars who are coming off an overtime loss to Seton Hall is look to avenge an earlier 78-61 loss at Butler when the had their worst shooting game of the season. Providence has won six of the last eight meetings and are the side this afternoon. Take the FRIARS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY DAVIS
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Texas A&M vs. Florida
Texas A&M+13½

The books have now adjusted their lines for Florida in a big way here since they have covered 5 in a row. Texas AM has won 4 of their last 6. I also like them here in this big underdog role as they went on the road @ West Virginia not to long ago and took them right down to the wire losing by 4. I do really like this Florida team going forward and into the tournament, but this line is just to high

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRYAN LEONARD

509 Golden State at Oklahoma City Over

Should be an exciting homecoming for Kevin Durant as he heads back to OKC for the first time since leaving via free agency. Both teams want to run and the Warriors are likely to be a step slow defensively after playing in Memphis last night. Look for a major showdown offensively as this one sails over the posted number.
PLAY OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Utah Jazz.

Edges -Jazz: 12-4 ATS as a favorite in non conference games this season; and 5-1 ATS with same season loss revenge of 7 or more points versus foe off a SUATS win this season. Celtics: 1-5 ATS last six overall games; and 5-9 ATS following the Trail Blazers. With the Jazz looking to avenge an 11-point loss suffered in Beantown earlier this season, and Boston off a upset revenge win at Portland, we recommend a 1* play on the Utah Jazz. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RED DOG SPORTS

Citadel at VMI
under 185.5

This is a super high total as Duggar Baucom now coaches Citadel and used to be at VMI. An earlier meeting had just 153 points. VMI is playing their 4th straight home game. The last three meetings before that 153 saw 160, 153 and close to 200.
Citadel away games have seen 159, 148, 153, 195 and 156 points.
We could easily see 186 or more points with these two losing teams scoring points like a Lamelo Ball layup line but I like our chances of seeing an under on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NHL Prediction From Doc's Sports :

Take 'Over' in Buffalo at Toronto (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 11)

The Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs square off on Saturday night in what should be and up-and-down affair. The Leafs are third in the league in shots on goal this season and sixth in goals per game. They pay for some of their aggressiveness on the defensive end, but it's a tradeoff that comes with young players. The Buffalo Sabres don't boast great offensive numbers, but they have been a better offensive team since they got healthy. Earlier in the season this team was a dead UNDER squad when Jack Eichel and Evander Kane were on the shelf. But nearly all of their recent games have featured a total of 60+ shots overall, and the pace is skewed upwards. The Sabres are clearly looking for offense first, and they have the young talent to execute. This game could go OVER the total by the end of the second period, and I wouldn't be surprised if one team puts up five or six goals all by themselves. Play the OVER in our Bonus Play selection for Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHRIS JORDAN

I want you to play top-ranked Gonzaga minus the points in Moraga, Calif., as the Bulldogs will complete the season sweep of their main rival, the 20tth-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels.

These two have had some epic battles over the years, but this could very well be the biggest game ever played on Saint Mary's campus, as Gonzaga brings its 25-0 mark to town, with a conference and the nation's No. 1 ranking on the line.

Ultimately, I truly believe one of the No. 1 seeds in next month's big tournament is at stake, and that's what Gonzaga coach Mark Few will have in mind as he preps his stingy defense for the raucous atmosphere.

The Gaels, who rank second nationally in scoring defense with an allowance of 54.6 points per game, have won their 13 league games by an average of 25.8 points, and none of those contests were closer than 10 points - including an earlier-season meeting with Saint Mary's.

In that first meeting, on Jan. 14, the Bulldogs breezed to a 79-56 victory after erasing a six-point deficit with 8:40 left. Despite trailing much of the game, Gonzaga shot 64.7 percent in last month's game.

The Bulldogs, who have covered 10 of the last 11 meetings, are in after destroying Loyola Marymount on Thursday, so the Dawgs obviously weren't too concerned with this game.

Play Gonzaga, which is on an 18-5 ATS run this season, as it will roll to the win and cover tonight.

2* GONZAGA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHRIS JORDAN

My NBA freebie for Saturday is on the Houston Rockets, the same team I gave you a couple of nights back with a 1,000♦ winning selection over Charlotte. Tonight they're going to destroy the visiting Phoenix Suns.

As I told you the other night, the Rockets might be the most dangerous team in the league right now. We all know they came into the season extremely dangerous on offense, and at this point they're finally coming together and playing the best they've played all season by finding the right chemistry.

With the third-best record in the NBA at 39-17, the Rockets already own wins over Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Memphis, while they also boast the most dangerous scorer in the league: James Harden.

This is a well-rested team, as it will be playing in just its third game over the past eight days. After today, the Rockets have just one game until the All-Star Break, so I expect them to be focused with plenty of energy for a Saturday night home game at the Toyota Center.

Lay the chalk.

4* ROCKETS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TONY KARPINSKI
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Marquette vs. Georgetown
Over 156

Marquette has to prevent Georgetown from getting in the paint, they need to outwork Georgetown and block the Hoyas out on the defensive boards to have a chance. I really trust that to happen with Luke Fischer and Sam Hauser from Marquette who have been really good, particularly in the last month between the 2 of them. The big watch will be L.J. Peak to see what he does, in his continued chance to becoming a leader on the Hoyas. Marquette has a very good team. Simply put, this season isn't a weird sort of fluke, they have been getting loads of points - but their D has been average . Georgetown have been adequate at home, but they will be in trouble here as well - and I trust Marquette to make that happen. This should be a run and gun type of game and I think the OVER has the best value here and we'll use it as your comp.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JAMIE TURSINI
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Weber State vs. Portland State
over 156½

The Algorithm Power Ratings have generated a 57% chance that this goes over the Total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BLACK WIDOW

Widow's Free Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +7

Bets on underdogs (Milwaukee) a cold team that has failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games against an opponent like Indiana that has covered the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games are 82-38 ATS since 1996. The Bucks are getting to the point where they are catching too many points tonight on the road against the Pacers, and there is clearly some value in backing them here. Give me Milwaukee.

 

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BOBBY CONN
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Connecticut vs. UCF
1* Bonus Play on UCF -4½ -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MATT JOSEPHS
NCAA-B | Feb 11, 2017
Richmond vs. La Salle
Richmond+3

The Spiders come off a week long bye to play in Philly against La Salle. The Explorers have lost four of their last six games entering this one with the wins being over Fordham and UMass. They have plenty of offense led by Jordan Price and BJ Johnson, but their lack of commitment to defense is what is hurting them. This is a team who lost at home to Penn earlier this season and that's inexcusable. The Spiders have split their last six games, but are feeling better about themselves with ShawnDre Jones and TJ Cline leading the way. DeMonte Buckingham and Nick Sherod are improving as freshmen. Their offense has been cruising so the one question is if the time off cools it off a bit. Richmond has covered eight of their 11 games in the A-10. La Salle is 8-9 ATS. I don't think they have much of a homecourt advantage either.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Utah -12

I have no problem backing the Utes at home as a double-digit favorite against the Huskies. Utah was able to snap a short two-game skid with a 74-70 win at home against Washington State. It was far from an impressive performance and head coach Larry Krystkowiak made sure to let his team know it. It was a bit of a flat spot and now has them primed for a huge bounce back effort here at home against Washington.
The big news with this game and the Huskies is whether or not star freshman Markelle Fultz will play, as he sat out the last game with knee pain. Given how the Huskies are 9-15 and have nothing to play for, I have a hard time believing they will rush him back. With that said, even if he does play, I still like the Utes here. Note that Fultz ha 30 points at home against the Utes earlier this season and Washington still lost the game by 22-points. This is also an awful spot for the Huskies, playing in the thin air of Utah just 2 days after playing in the thin air of Colorado. Not to mention Washington is 2-8 on the road, while the Utes are 11-3 at home. If Fultz ends up sitting this is going to get ugly in a hurry and if he plays I still see the Utes winning by 15+ points. Take Utah!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE PRICE

1* on UCF -4

The Key: The UCF Knights have gone through a brutal schedule of late, which is why they are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. They lost on the road to Memphis, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati. In their two home games during this stretch, they only lost by 5 to SMU, but thumped Memphis by 15. Now they get a break as UConn visits with an 11-12 record on the season. The Knights are 11-2 at home this year, holding foes to just 56.6 PPG and 32.5% shooting. The Huskies have taken advantage of an easy schedule of late to go 4-1 in their last 5 games overall, but the 4 victories came against AAC bottom feeders South Florida (twice), ECU and Tulane. The loss was a 14-point setback at Cincinnati. UCF is 12-4 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Take UCF.