SPORTS WAGERS
Tulsa +14 over Virginia Tech
The storyline here is that Virginia Tech (6-6) is going to play their hearts out and win one for the Gipper, as the Frank Beamer era comes to a conclusion. This will be the long tenured Hokies’ head coach’s final game at the helm and many are betting that the motivation to get Beamer a win will be too great for Tulsa to overcome. Beamer is an institution. He has been instrumental in gaining Virginia Tech national recognition, including three Big East titles and one ACC Championship. However the glory days of the Hokies have long since passed, as they have not won more than seven games since 2011. Intriguing storylines bring attention to certain games and there is often a huge market overreaction in that event. We saw it with the Warriors and Bucks a couple weeks ago when Golden State announced that they didn’t like the way the Bucks acted when they snapped the Warriors 24-0 epic start to the season. The Warriors vowed that the Bucks would pay, as they closed as an 18½-point favorite. Golden State barely won outright that night and virtually had no chance of ever covering the number.
The Hokies will be facing a football team that is no stranger toward facing name-brand opponents or premiere opposition. Tulsa has the mindset of playing anyone, anytime at any place. Tulsa has always been ready and willing to face any team that wished to schedule a game against them. In September, the Golden Hurricane traveled to Oklahoma to face the Sooners. The Golden Hurricane did not get the win, but they lost by just 14 points as a 31½-point dog while scoring 38 points on the Sooners. Statistically, the Hurricane has one of the best offenses in America, as they averaged 35.9 points per game and compiled 502.8 total yards of offense per game. The problem with Tulsa is their lack of defense but Va Tech’s offense is completely out of sync and will be coming off a long layoff. The Ghost of Christmas Past may arrive a day late in haunting the Hokies and while we’re not calling the outright upset, we are strong on the fact that 14 points is extremely accommodating given Virginia Tech’s inconsistency on offense and that Tulsa has only scored less than 38 points in two games this year. Simply backing VT by virtue of the “win one for coach” angle is not a sentiment that is guaranteed to get you to the cashier’s window. The only guarantee here is that we’re taking back inflated points and that’s a wager we’ll make almost every time.
Nebraska +6½ over UCLA
We love Nebraska (5-7) in this situation, a quality outfit that is getting very little credit in this market. The Cornhuskers handed #3 Michigan State its sole defeat on the year. For those who have followed our picks, we were aboard the Cornhuskers when they entered their match against Michigan State as a marginal dog and we’re on them again here. The betting line in that Michigan State game was no gimmick and once again we see Nebraska entering as a live dog that many have mistakenly presumed to be book sleeping at the switch. How does a team with a losing record entering a bowl game that is up against the pre-season favorite to win the Pac-12 get spotted less than a touchdown? Very simple.
Look at Nebraska’s losses on the year. Five of Nebraska’s seven losses were chalked up to hard luck. A specter of misfortune haunted Nebraska all-season. Outside of a 55-45 loss at Purdue, the Cornhuskers’ remaining six losses were settled by a combined 18 points! To recap the chain of events, the Huskers lost on a last second Hail Mary against BYU. An almost identical result would take place in Nebraska’s 36-33 loss against Miami on the road. While there was no Hail Mary involved, the Huskers would erase a 24-point deficit to draw even with just 33 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, only to lose on a last-second field goal to close out the game for Miami in regulation. Illinois would defeat the Huskers by a late touchdown scored with just 10 seconds left in regulation to escape, 14-13. Wisconsin beat Nebraska 23-21 with a 46-yard FG field goal as time expired. Against Northwestern, Nebraska would tie the game at the end of the regulation and fail the two-point-conversion and Northwestern would escape 30-28. Finally, in a hard fought loss against an undefeated Iowa squad in a rivalry game to conclude the season, Nebraska lost by just one possession. While the dramatics were far less prevalent in this outing, the game was still very much in reach for Nebraska before they ultimately fell. In spite of all the lumps Nebraska took, they managed to make a bowl game and with the help of some errant gusts of winds, we might be talking about a 10-2 team instead.
UCLA (8-4) has been overvalued on a plethora of occasions the last two seasons. The Bruins are 5-6 against the spread this year and 2-4 when they are favored in this range or higher. We are not surprised, as this team makes a living off of the hype that surrounds them and this match-up against Nebraska serves as the perfect stage for the Bruins to lay another egg. UCLA has no credible win to their name outside of a 17-9 victory over Utah near Thanksgiving. While the ‘Huskers have had nothing but rotten luck, UCLA has been the benefactor of good fortune, as they escaped both Colorado and BYU by a combined five points and took advantage of a nicked up Arizona while kicking around Oregon State, Virginia, California and UNLV. None of these teams qualified for bowl games except for the Golden Bears. It is also worth mentioning that Cal finished 7-5 after starting off the season 5-0, winning just two games in their last seven contests. UCLA caught the Bears while they were snowballing through that slump. All-in-all, we are not sipping the UCLA Kool-Aid nor are we trembling at the thought of fading the Bruins. Nebraska is a good football team and they were simply on the wrong side of the equation in many games that could have easily swung their way. The Foster Farms Bowl serves as the perfect opportunity for Nebraska to serve up some vindication and expose UCLA. If Nebraska can upend the Big 10 champs (Michigan State) and play a four quarter game with Iowa, we are confident in suggesting that this snake-bitten dog has a seriously legit shot of winning outright.
UConn +180 over Marshall
Many are ignoring that Connecticut (6-6) ended #19 Houston’s perfect season in Storrs in the second last game of the regular season. While this may be disregarded in a match-up of this nature, we find this all the more prevalent against a Marshall (9-3) team that has fallen prey to a similar scenario earlier this season. This is a direct reference to Marshall suffering a crushing defeat in Murfreesboro, Tennessee at the hands of Middle Tennessee State. Marshall opened as a three-point pooch despite the Blue Raiders sporting a losing record at the time. We figured the soup was on and the goose was cooked, as there are no gifts in this business and the generous offering that accompanied the Herd in this contest turned out to be a Trojan Horse. Marshall would lose their second game of the season in what would ultimately be a trend of the Herd losing two of their last three entering this contest.
Once again we see a heavy market lean on Marshall despite UConn’s ability to challenge good teams. The Huskies may not be a storied football team but they do have a history of stepping up to the plate against power players. The most prominent episode was of course the Huskies’ 2011 Fiesta Bowl berth where they would face Oklahoma as the largest underdog in BCS game history. The Sooners would put the pedal to the floor and roll UConn, but not without some early fireworks to get the game started. We saw a similar situation occur last year when UConn attempted to upend Michigan at home, ultimately losing the contest in closing stages. Fast forward to this year and the Huskies were successful in knocking off an undefeated Houston Cougars team in what was considered one of the year’s best upsets. This win was the triumph that put UConn into the St. Petersburg Bowl.
Marshall is once again donning the ensemble of a near sure-bet. However, what may be lost in the sauce is the difference between strength of schedule by both teams. UConn has gone toe-to-toe with some formidable foes, which includes BYU, Navy, Temple, USF and an early-season undefeated Missouri club on the road. By contrast, many of Marshall’s wins consisted of them creaming cupcakes like North Texas, Norfolk State, Old Dominion and Charlotte. We're now getting points with a Uconn squad that held a significant strength of schedule edge of 69th toughest to Marshall's 138th ranked schedule. Despite playing a much tougher schedule, the Huskies went under the total in 10 of their 12 games, revealing that they have held better teams than Marshall has played to much fewer points. Perception is reality and in this case the market's reality is a bit out of whack. We're calling the Huskies outright.
Duke +130 over Indiana
We were bullish on the Hoosiers in the early-going of the 2015 season but we have since gained much reason to dissent. Indiana (6-6) began the season at 4-0, gaining an impressive victory over Western Kentucky in their third game on the slate. Given Indiana’s 4-8 record in 2014, the fact they had matched their win total in 2015 garnered optimism from many when they were set to face Ohio State. To our delight, we backed the Hoosiers against Ohio State when they were spotted 21½ points and we cashed easily in that one after the Buckeyes were forced to hold off the Hoosiers in the final moments of the game, winning by just a touchdown. Since this hard-fought loss to the defending champs, Indiana has fallen off a cliff. After starting the season undefeated, Indiana would lose six straight before they would win their final two games of the regular season to gain bowl eligibility. The two victims were Maryland and Purdue, two teams that sit at the bottom of their respective divisions in the Big 10 and that have only won a combined five games on the year. The Hoosiers defeating those two cupcakes was not a jaw-dropping feat. Frankly, Indiana was lucky to beat the Boilermakers.
Meanwhile Duke (7-5) is legit. This is a team that jumped out to a 6-1 start that included a victory over then #20 Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils only loss in their first seven games came in a close call against then #23 Northwestern. Duke would finish their season with a win over Wake Forest but their four losses occurred against Miami, North Carolina, Pitt and Virginia.
In essence, this game is a flip of a coin, a contest of two “basketball” schools whose football teams have somewhat risen to prominence. Comparatively, we are being polite in saying they are no longer terrible football teams but now somewhat relevant. Regardless, when breaking down this match-up, we are keen to target the Hoosiers’ abysmal defense. The Hoosiers rank among the worst in the country in major defensive categories and if there is no other wrinkle worth exploiting, this is certainly a feasible one. The old adage goes “Offense wins games, defense wins championships”. Well we would like to revise this metaphor and employ a proverb of our own: “Offense wins games, defense wins Bowls games” and given the lack of defensive fortitude shown by the Hoosiers all year, we’re calling the Blue Devils outright.
