At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
The frenzy from the Breeders’ Cup is starting to subside, with American Pharoah heading to the breeding shed at $200,000 a pop, but there is still plenty of outstanding betting action for us horseplayers.
At Gulfstream Park West today it is Sunshine Millions Preview Day with eight stakes worth $800,000, a precursor to the Sunshine Millions Day card at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 16.
A field of seven will line up in the $100,000 Millions Classic Preview including the defending champion East Hall, who is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The gelding ran second in last year’s Sunshine Millions Classic. He comes into the race off a sharp win in the Sensitive Prince in the slop at Gulfstream Park.
Flutterby is the 4-5 morning line favorite for the $100,000 Millions Distaff Preview, but I have a filly I think has a shot of beating her at a price.
The later juvenile turf races looks like attractive betting races as well. I think we can beat the favorite in both the $100,000 Juvenile Turf and the $100,000 Juvenile Fillies Turf.
The feature at Aqueduct on Saturday is the $200,000 Long Island Handicap (G3) for fillies and mares going 1 ½ miles on turf.
As you can see below I am going with Danza Cavallo, who is one of three sent out by trainer Chad Brown. The filly was beaten just a neck in the race last year in her U.S. debut. She has only won once in six starts in the U.S. but is coming off her best outing last out, a runner up to Stephanie’s Kitten in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1).
Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#1 Ross J Dawg 5-2
#5 Resourceful 2-1
#4 Danzig Storm 3-1
#6 Our Independence 10-1
Analysis: Ross J Dawg prompted the early pace, took over the led heading for home and was caught late, beaten a neck at this level on the turf going seven furlongs. The gelding was also beaten in a photo two back in his first start against winners. This will be his first go on dirt but his pedigree leans more toward dirt, by Sharp Humor out of a Miswaki mare.
Resourceful set the early fractions and weakened late to finish third last out at this level in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden earning a solid fig two back at Philly in a gate to wire score. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and will be the one to catch.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park West:
GPW Race 5 Millions Classic Preview (2:35 ET)
#1 City of Weston 3-1
#5 East Hall 2-1
#4 Southern Barbecue 5-1
#7 Saraguaro 4-1
Analysis: City of Weston makes just his second start at a route, the first in the slop where he was outrun. He has the pedigree to handle the extra ground and now goes for the Walder barn that claimed him for $62,500 back in March, He won a stake in his first go for the barn and is coming off a fourth in the Trinniberg last out going seven furlongs. The barn is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route. He is quick enough on the stretch out he may be sent by Zayas.
East Hall is the defending champ of this race and then ran second in the Sunshine Millions in his next outing. He comes in here off a sharp win in the Sensitive Prince in the slop at Gulfstream Park in his last outing. He has been beaten by double-digit lengths in his four previous outings but looks back on track here. Back in with state breds will suit him as well although the price may end up on the short side.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Long Island Handicap G3 (3:50 ET)
#3 Danza Cavallo 3-1
#9 Crisolles 5-1
#1 Goldy Espony 5-1
#2 Rosalind 6-1
Analysis: Danza Cavallo set the early fractions in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) last out over soft footing and got run down in the stretch by Stephanie’s Kitten, who returned to win the Breeders’ Cup Fully & Mare Turf (G1) and the fifth place finisher Curvy came back to win the E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine. The eighth place finisher also won next out, taking the Turnback the Alarm (G3) on Oct. 30. The filly has landed in the exacta in five of her six trips at this distance including a tough neck loss in this race last year. She looks the best of the trio that Chad Brown sends out.
Crisolles is one of three in here sent out by the Christophe Clement barn. The filly beat optional claimers last out for her first win since landing in the U.S. and in her third start, winning at 1 3/78 miles. She was third in a Group 3 and second in a Group 2 last year in France. She looks as if she will be able to handle her first trip at today’s distance.
Goldy Espony tracked the early pace and faded to finish ninth last out in the Glen Falls (G3) at the Spa, snapping a three race winning streak. Two back she won the Waya (G3) at today’s distance and the effort was flattered when the third and fifth place finishers came out of the race to win next out. Three back she won the River Memories at Belmont Park in her first trip at 1 ½ miles. She comes back with a two month freshening for the Brown barn that is 30% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 46-90 day break.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 1,2,3,9
TRI: 3,9 / 1,2,3,9 / 1,2,3,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1 #6 Our Independence 10-1
R3: #2 Longfor the City 8-1
R4: #11 Tiyo 12-1
R4: #4 Sassy Spirit 12-1
R5: #3 Mascarello 12-1
R7: #6 Euros to Dollars 10-1
R7: #11 Repent Twice 8-1
R9: #10 Cause for Surprise 12-1
Good luck today!
