Saturday 11/12/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 11
By Marcus DiNitto

When there’s a disparity between how a college football team is rated by oddsmakers and how it’s rated by pollsters, most folks in the wagering world give more weight to the former.

Heading into Week 11, Southern Cal is such a team. Since their 1-3 start, with losses to Alabama, at Stanford and at Utah, the Trojans have won five straight, and their resurgence coincides with coach Clay Helton’s decision to start Sam Darnold in place of Max Browne at quarterback. The freshman’s first start was at Utah, when USC had a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter before two late touchdowns by the Utes gave the home side the win.

Southern Cal, though, failed to crack the top 25 this week in either the AP or the coaches’ poll. On Saturday, the Trojans visit Washington as they try to spoil the Huskies’ undefeated season.

Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, believes USC is seriously underrated, not by the oddsmakers, but by the media members and coaches who vote in the polls.

“How USC is not ranked, I don’t know how that’s humanly possible,” Salmons said. “USC, since they switched quarterbacks, has been playing as well as Washington, except they lost to Alabama and they lost to Stanford early in the year. And the first game the kid started was when the played at Utah, and that’s a game they should have won. ... Since then, they’re killing everyone. They’ve been destroying teams week in and week out. USC has a real good shot to go out there and beat (Washington).”

There was some variance with the opening betting lines on this Pac-12 showdown. CG Technology hung Washington -7.5, while the Wynn went -9.5.

“Our oddsmakers ranged from 6.5 all the way to 9.5. We had a discussion and settled at 7.5,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Tech.

Simbal said his book drew small bets on both sides of that number Sunday while wiseguys left the game alone. But on Monday, line-influencing money showed up on the favorite, pushing the number to 9.

The Wynn was bet from -9.5 to -10, but then back to -9 on Sunday and to -8 on Monday.

While some college football observers griped that Washington was not in the top four of the playoff selection committee’s first rankings of the season, Avello said we’ll learn more about the Huskies on Saturday.

“(USC is) gonna go in thinking they have a shot,” Avello said. “They lost to this team last year in a really close game. This is the biggest test, for me, for the Washington team. ... This shows me if they really belong in that top four, because even though they’re at home, they’re getting a worthy opponent here.”

Here are some more games of interest on the Week 11 college football card:

Baylor at Oklahoma (-15)

CG Technology on Sunday opened Oklahoma -13.5, a number not big enough for bettors’ tastes. The book took bets on Oklahoma at -13.5, -14.5 and -15, Simbal said.

Bettors are fading Baylor more than backing Oklahoma, Simbal believes.

“I think people are more turned off by Baylor than they are pro-Oklahoma. This is more an anti-Baylor bet,” he said.

After winning their first six games of the season, the Bears have dropped two straight, at Texas 35-34 and in embarrassing fashion at home to TCU this past Saturday, 62-22.

It has not taken the betting market long to react.

“Their power rating has lost steam. They’ve lost 6 or 7 points in the power ratings (over the last two weeks),” said Avello, who opened Oklahoma -15. “That trouncing against TCU was really bad. It’s not like the game was even close. They just got waxed. ... (Kyle Hicks) had five touchdowns and (TCU) made them look really, really bad. They scored on a couple of big plays, but 22 points is all they had. I don’t know, maybe their confidence level is way down.”

Conversely, Oklahoma has shaken off a 1-2 start to the season, winning six in a row.

“All of a sudden, this team is scoring in the 50s, 60s a game,” Avello said. “I think Baylor can also do that, but they haven’t as of late. So it looks like Oklahoma in this game can score at will, and Baylor I’m sure will be able to score some, but they could get carried away late. ... For this particular game, they may show up early, but these point spreads are all about when the final bell rings, where are you, where do you stand.” West Virginia at Texas (-2)

The Wynn opened this game a pick ‘em but was bet to Texas -2 by Monday, when the line ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 around Las Vegas.

This is a potential look-ahead spot for the Mountaineers, who have Oklahoma next week in a game with major Big 12 championship implications.

The Longhorns are not in the race for the conference title, but they have won two straight, and while this won’t make people in Austin feel any better, their four losses (at Cal, at Oklahoma State, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas State) are “justifiable,” according to Avello.

“Charlie Strong is going to do a good job with this team,” Avello said, “but it was going to take him a while to get who he wanted in place, and I think that’s starting to happen now – you’re starting to see it. I think it’s going to get better next year.”

Michigan (-20) at Iowa

Michigan continues to throttle anyone in their path, while Iowa has followed up last year’s undefeated regular season with a dud of a 2016 campaign.

The Wolverines are one of those teams for whom bookmakers can’t make a number high enough – people are going to bet them no matter the spread, it seems. This week, for example, CG Technology opened Michigan -18 and took bets on the favorite at that number, as well as -19.5 and -20, Simbal said.

Some college football coaches are not shy about running up scores, particularly this time of year when polls start to matter. Jim Harbaugh fits into that category, and Avello says he accounts for the coach’s foot-on-gas mentality when he books Michigan games.

“He wants to lay the lumber on everybody. He doesn’t pull back at all. He wants to constantly score,” Avello said of Harbaugh. “He’s one of those coaches who goes for it. ... There’s certain guys that will do that. Ohio State will run it up, but once it gets late in the game, they kind of back off a little bit. They’re not constantly trying to throw the ball. I saw Harbaugh throw the ball and they were up by like 40 points in the fourth quarter, four minutes to go.”

Florida (-12.5) at South Carolina

CG opened Florida -15, while the Wynn hung -13.5 and was bet up early to -14 before underdog money showed up Monday.

Florida was unimpressive as a short favorite at Arkansas last week, losing 31-10. South Carolina won its third game in a row and has some late-season momentum.

The Gators are expected to be without QB Luke Del Rio on Saturday, not good news for their already inept offense.

Avello believes a soft SEC East schedule has a lot to do with Florida’s 6-2 record. After the Gamecocks this week, Florida finishes up against LSU (rescheduled due to Hurricane Matthew) and Florida State.

“They don’t score and haven’t scored, and that’s always their problem,” Avello said of the Gators. “They rely on defense. ... It just looks like they’re going in a different direction right now.”

Auburn (-10) at Georgia

In case we needed more evidence of the wide gap between the two divisions of the SEC, Auburn from the West lays a hefty number as it travels to play Georgia from the East in Athens. The Wynn opened Auburn -9.5 and was up to -10 later Sunday night.

Army at Notre Dame (-12.5)

Avello opened Notre Dame -11 and was bet to -12.5, still sitting a half-point lower than many competing books.

At 3-6, Notre Dame’s season is pretty much toast, yet gamblers are still investing in the Irish. Avello understands the move on this week’s game, as he doesn’t see Notre Dame giving up and says the Black Knights are a good match up for them.

“The coach (Brian Kelly) isn’t throwing in the towel. He’s going to want to continue win games,” Avello said. “Army just doesn’t score points. They’re the kind of team that scores 20 points a game. Notre Dame has no problem scoring.”

A note on futures

Of the five teams with single-digit odds on the Westgate’s college football futures board, the book’s only liability is Ohio State (7/2). The house “does really well” with Alabama (even-money), Michigan (5/1), Washington (6/1) and Clemson (7/1). This may surprise those who read reports that Michigan was the most bet-on team ahead of the season.

Salmons said Michigan was a popular futures play early, “but then they got down to the 7/1 range and people started betting other teams and they kind of forgot about Michigan. It’s funny, Michigan had way more support over the summer and then once the season started, they’ve had no more support.”

Early line moves

Here are games that saw the point spread move two or more points in the favorite’s direction during the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Pittsburgh vs. Clemson
Opening line: Clemson -18.5
After 23 hours: Clemson -20.5

Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
Opening line: UCF -10.5
After 23 hours: UCF -12.5

Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Opening line: Louisville -32
After 23 hours: Louisville -34.5

UT-San Antonio vs. Louisiana Tech
Opening line: La Tech -19.5
After 23 hours: La Tech -22.5

West Virginia vs. Texas
Opening line: pick ‘em
After 23 hours: Texas -2

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
Opening line: Mizzou -1
After 23 hours: Mizzou -3

San Diego State vs. Nevada
Opening line: SDSU -21
After 23 hours: SDSU -23

Here are games that saw the point spread move two or more points in the underdog’s direction during the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Bowling Green vs. Akron
Opening line: BGSU +11.5
After 23 hours: BGSU +9

UL-Lafayette vs. Georgia Southern
Opening line: ULL +10.5
After 23 hours: ULL +8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

So forget about the SEC becoming the first conference to land two teams in the College Football Playoff. There was a lot of handwringing last week when the first CFP rankings were released and one-loss Texas A&M was at No. 4, one spot ahead of unbeaten Washington, the Pac-12 favorite. But I wrote that the Huskies had nothing to worry about as if they just took care of business, they would be in the Top 4 by the end.

Now it might happen Tuesday. That's because the Aggies were upset 35-28 at Mississippi State. A&M's bacon was cooked when quarterback Trevor Knight left with his team down 28-7. He injured his throwing shoulder on a 19-yard touchdown run at the end of the first quarter and was able to come back for one series but then left for good midway through the second. It's not clear yet if Knight will play this week against Ole Miss. Junior Jake Hubenak would get the call if not. He was 11 of 17 for 222 yards and two touchdowns vs. MSU. Also monitor the status of Aggies defensive end Myles Garrett, who aggravated an ankle injury vs. the Bulldogs. Texas A&M only played Garrett on third downs due to the problem. He's a potential No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft.

The Aggies opened at -20 this week against visiting Ole Miss, which has lost star quarterback Chad Kelly, who also has a potential NFL future, for the season. The senior suffered a torn ACL and torn lateral meniscus during the Rebels' 37-27 win over Georgia Southern on Saturday. Redshirt freshman Jason Pellerin replaced Kelly, completing 1 of 5 passes for 19 yards and an interception. He also ran the ball four times for 29 yards. What's interesting there is if Ole Miss has to burn the redshirt of highly-touted true freshman Shea Patterson. At 4-5, Ole Miss would need two wins to get bowl eligible. Is wasting a year of Patterson, rated the No. 1 dual-threat high school QB in his class, worth some potential minor bowl game? The Rebs close the regular season at Vanderbilt and home in the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State.

Here are a few Week 11 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from the last College Football Top 25 (will change Tuesday), and games Saturday unless noted.

No. 13 LSU at Arkansas (+7): Sometimes it's very smart to bet against a team the week after facing its main rival, and that's the case for LSU, which saw its chances of major bowl game disappear in Saturday's 10-0 loss to No. 1 Alabama. That also likely ended the chances of Ed Orgeron getting the full-time LSU coaching job. Just like last year, the Tide loaded up to stop Leonard Fournette and did so, and LSU couldn't make Alabama pay through the air. In 2014, the week after losing a well-played defensive battle to Alabama, the Tigers were shutout in Arkansas, 17-0. Last year, after losing 30-16 in Tuscaloosa the Tigers were beaten 31-14 at home by Arkansas. The pick: Razorbacks.

South Carolina at No. 11 Florida (-12): The Gators are going to plummet in the CFP Top 25 after getting spanked 31-10 at Arkansas on Saturday. Florida was held to a season-low 12 yards rushing on 14 carries. The win was the first over the Gators for Arkansas since the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl, and it was the Razorbacks' first SEC victory over Florida. The Gators still do control their destiny to win the SEC East but now have little wiggle room with Tennessee a game back in the loss column and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Florida will be without starting QB Luke Del Rio, center Cam Dillard and linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone against the Gamecocks. Purdue transfer Austin Appleby made two starts earlier this season with Del Rio was out and should get the call. Davis and Anzalone (out for season) are the team's top two tacklers. Of course, this is the return of former Florida coach Will Muschamp to Gainesville. The pick: USC and go under whatever small total this has.

No. 3 Michigan at Iowa (+20): Early in the season, this looked like a potential trouble for the Wolverines as Iowa is the defending Big Ten West champion. But the Hawkeyes were clobbered at Penn State on Saturday for their fourth loss and Penn State is a team that Michigan crushed earlier in the season. The only thing that might make this semi-competitive is that it's only Michigan's second game of the season outside its state. The only other time the Wolverines have had to travel outside Michigan was a 78-0 blowout of Rutgers. UM blasted Maryland 59-3 in Week 10, its third 50-point win of the season. The Wolverines lead the FBS in point differential. The pick: Iowa.

Pittsburgh at No. 2 Clemson (-20.5): The Tigers can clinch their second straight trip to the ACC Championship Game with a win here. Star quarterback Deshaun Watson hurt his shoulder in Saturday's blowout of Syracuse, but Coach Dabo Swinney said that Watson could have returned to the game but wasn't needed with the Tigers up big. That probably didn't help his Heisman hopes, but Watson was unlikely to catch Lamar Jackson regardless. Pitt was blasted by Miami and said goodbye to its chances of winning the ACC Coastal Division. It's the first time these schools have played in 39 years. The lone meeting occurred in the 1977 Gator Bowl, a 34-3 Pitt win. Clemson will be the highest-rated opponent Pitt has faced in nine years. That was Pitt's upset of No. 1 West Virginia on Dec. 1, 2007. The pick: Clemson as long as Watson is OK.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-2 3-2 2-6 2-6
Iowa State 1-8 0-6 6-3 5-4
Kansas 1-8 0-6 3-6 3-6
Kansas State 5-4 3-3 3-6 4-5
Oklahoma 7-2 6-0 3-6 5-4
Oklahoma State 7-2 5-1 6-3 6-3
Texas 5-4 3-3 6-3 4-5
Texas Christian 5-4 3-3 2-7 5-4
Texas Tech 4-5 2-4 6-3 4-5
West Virginia 7-1 4-1 3-5 3-5


Baylor at Oklahoma (ABC or ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Baylor hasn't quite spiraled out of control, but a two-game losing streak has them adjusting their goals. Oklahoma has a pair of losses, but they're both outside of the conference. In fact, the Sooners remain the only team which is unbeaten in the conference. Since a resounding loss at home to Ohio State, Oklahoma has rattled off six straight wins with at least 34 points during each outing while showing up as the team we all expected to see. Baylor is 2-1 SU on the road this season, but they're 0-3 ATS. Overall the Bears have struggled against the number, going 2-6 ATS. Oklahoma is a 16-point favorite as of Wednesday morning, and they're 2-0 ATS in two league home games in Norman.

Iowa State at Kansas (NO TV, 12:00 p.m.)
It's a battle of 1-8 teams in Lawrence Saturday, but one team has stood taller than the other. The Cyclones of Iowa State have won just once on the scoreboard, but they have cashed frequently at the betting window. I-State is 6-1 ATS over the past seven outings, losing four of their past five games by 10 points or less. Kansas has just been awful overall, losing all eight of their games against FBS teams, and they're a dismal 2-6 ATS during the span. With the exception of a one-point loss to TCU Oct. 8, Kansas has lost six of their past seven games by 24 or more points. Iowa State is listed as a 9 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The 'over has cashed in five of the past seven for Iowa State, while the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight for Kansas. The total has held steady at 56.

West Virginia at Texas (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
West Virginia bounced back from its first loss of the season at Oklahoma State, posting a 48-21 win against Kansas. however, they failed to cover for the second straight week, and they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall. Meanwhile, Texas has posted back-to-back wins for just the second time this season, although they're an impressive 6-3 ATS in nine games overall. The Longhorns have been a completely different team at home, going 4-0 SU/ATS in Austin as opposed to 2-3 SU/ATS on the road. The Mountaineers have also struggled on the road, going 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS on the road. At home, WVU allows an average of 15.8 PPG, while giving up 28.7 PPG in three outings on the road.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Texas Tech's powerful offense will be on display at Oklahoma State, another team with an impressive offense. The over/under is set at 90 as of Wednesday morning, so you know the scoreboard operator is doing finger stretches to get ready. The Red Raiders have scored 37 or more points in seven of their nine games this season, but they have also allowed 44 or more points in six of their past eight. OK State has won five straight games since a 35-24 loss at Baylor Sept. 24, and they have covered each of their past three outings. The 'over' is 4-1 in Oklahoma State's past four outings, too, as they have scored 37 or more points in each of their past five victories. In addition, the Cowboys have allowed 20 or morep oints in each of their eight games against FBS teams, and 30 or more points in six of their eight outings. Expect fireworks, and a lot of them.

Bye Teams
Kansas State, Texas Christian

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 11
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 3-6 2-4 5-4 4-5
Indiana 5-4 3-3 4-5 3-6
Iowa 5-4 3-3 3-6 4-5
Maryland 5-4 2-4 3-6 3-6
Michigan 9-0 6-0 5-4 7-2
Michigan State 2-7 0-6 2-7 4-5
Minnesota 7-2 4-2 3-5-1 5-4
Nebraska 7-2 4-2 5-3-1 2-7
Northwestern 4-5 3-3 5-4 2-7
Ohio State 8-1 5-1 5-4 4-5
Penn State 7-2 5-1 5-3-1 7-2
Purdue 3-6 1-5 4-5 7-2
Rutgers 2-7 0-6 4-5 6-3
Wisconsin 7-2 4-2 7-2 2-7

Michigan (-20) at Iowa – (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Iowa – The Hawkeyes had a chance to turn their season back in the right direction last week as they were coming off a bye and traveling to Penn State. It didn’t happen as Iowa was stopped 41-14 and it was no fluke. PSU outgained the Hawkeyes by a whopping 365 yards and were 8 of 15 (53%) on 3rd and 4th down. The slumping Iowa defense gave up 599 total yards on 8.5 YPP. It was the 3rd straight game Iowa allowed at least 420 yards and 2nd time in 3 weeks the allowed over 500 yards. During that 3 game stretch they have allowed opposing offenses (PSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue) to average 6.9 YPP. That’s from a defense that gave up just 341 YPG last year on 5.0 YPP. Obviously a huge drop on that side of the ball for the Hawks.

The offense isn’t helping out either. They’ve been held to 14 points or less in 4 of their 6 Big Ten games this season. Iowa ranks just 12th in the Big Ten in total offense averaging 324 YPG ahead of only Rutgers & Illinois (conference games only). This struggling offense now has to face a Michigan defense that has given up 10 points or less in every Big Ten game but one. Could be tough sledding for QB Beathard who has regressed this season and struggles to pick up big plays for this offense. In fact, on Saturday, before their final meaningless TD drive late in the 4th quarter, Iowa had only 3 offensive plays in the game that gained 10 yards or more. Struggling defense + lethargic offense does not equal much success for this team.

Michigan – The Wolverine starters should be well rested here as they walloped Maryland last week 59-3 and many of the regulars were able to sit the 2nd half. Nine different players carried the ball for Michigan while eight different players caught at least one pass. QB Wilson Speight threw for a school record 292 yards in the first half and led Michigan to TD’s on all 5 of its offensive possessions. Head coach Jim Harbaugh heaped praise on Speight after the game saying, “That's the best half of football I've ever seen a Michigan quarterback play.” The Wolverines didn’t punt in the game and scored points on 9 of their 10 offensive possessions. The only possession that ended in no points was when Michigan was stopped at the Maryland 14-yard line on fourth and one.

The defense was their usual dominant self as they held another opponent to 10 points or less, their fourth in five Big Ten games. They lead the Big Ten in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, and total defense (conference games only). They are winning their Big Ten games by an average score of 45-8 and outgaining their conference opponents by 300 YPG (521 YPG to 221 YPG).

Last Year – These two haven’t met since 2013 when Iowa won 24-21 at home vs Michigan. That was the 4th time in the last 5 meetings the Hawks have beaten the Wolverines dating back to 2009.

Inside the Numbers – The home team has won 7 of the last 10 games in this Big Ten series. The underdog is 11-2-2 ATS the last 15 meetings. Iowa has not been a home dog of +20 or more since the 1999 season. Before this season, Michigan hadn’t been a Big Ten road favorite of 20 or more points since 1997. This year, if this line holds at -20, it will already be the third time in three Big Ten road games they’ve been favored by 20 or more.

Minnesota at Nebraska (-7) – (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Nebraska – There is no opening line on this game due to the status of Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong who was taken away in an ambulance late in the 1st half of their game at OSU last week. The number has since come up at Nebraska -7 in spots. Armstrong returned to the sidelines in street clothes and he is currently going through concussion protocol this week. If Armstrong can’t play, Ryker Fyfe, will start and his back up will be WR Zach Darlington who used to be a QB before changing positions. Fyfe took his first snap last week since Sept 17th and finished the game just 5 of 18 for 52 yards in Nebraska’s 62-3 loss to the Buckeyes (including 2 pick 6’s). In Fyfe’s 5 drives under center, the Huskers punted 3 times (3 three and outs), he threw a pick on the 3rd play of another drive, and the final possession stalled inside the OSU 10-yard line.

They are hoping to get some reinforcements back on the offensive line this weekend with 3 former starters all banged up and recently out, but getting better. The Nebraska defense, that actually looked solid a week earlier at Wisconsin, was shredded for 590 yards on 8.0 YPP. The OSU offense scored points on their first 8 offensive possessions and probably would have on their final and 9th drive as well but the game ended with the Bucks on the Nebraska 39 yard line. Just a game to forget for Nebraska who now no longer controls their own destiny in the Big Ten West as they had entering the last two games.

Minnesota – After starting the Big Ten season 0-2, the Gophers are on a 4 game winning streak and are now one of two teams in the Big Ten West, along with Wisconsin, that control their own destiny in that half of the conference. While Minnesota’s 4 game run has been obviously impressive because they’ve won all of those games, the opposition has been less than impressive with a combined record of 5-19 in league play. The streak began by beating Maryland with the Terps playing their back up QB.

Their last three wins have come against the three worst teams in the entire Big Ten (Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue). While they won those three games, each as a heavy favorite, they outgained those three opponents by just 117 yards combined or just 39 YPG. Not overly impressive vs teams that have been outgained by an average of 208 (Rutgers), 132 (Illinois), and 108 (Purdue) yards per game in Big Ten play. After trailing 28-23 at half in last Saturday’s 44-31 home win over Purdue, the Gophers took advantage of 3 Boilermaker 2nd half turnovers turning them directly into 21 points. Partly due to the turnover, the Minnesota defense was able to hold Purdue to just 3 points after the break.

Last Year – Nebraska came into Minnesota Last Year in a pick-em game and destroyed the Gophers 48-25 outgaining them by 100 yards.

Inside the Numbers – These two have met 5 times since the Huskers joined the Big Ten with Nebraska winning 3 of those games. Total scoring numbers in those games are Nebraska 174 – Minnesota 115 (Average score of Nebraska 34-23. The total yardage in those 5 games looks like this Nebraska 2,148 – Minnesota 1,643 (Average yardage per game of Nebraska 430 – Minnesota 328).

Rutgers at Michigan State (-14) – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State – Can Sparty possibly lose another game when listed as a favorite? This team has now lost 7 straight games and they were a favorite in 6 of those. They are just 2-7 ATS this year with those games losing to the spread by a combined -96 points or over 10 points per game. They’ve played a fairly difficult schedule up until last Saturday so there was hope they may be able to turn it around with a few games coming up vs the Big Ten’s worst (Illinois & Rutgers). Well that didn’t happen as last week this team lost at Illinois 31-27 as a 9.5 point favorite. That was an Illinois team playing with their 3rd string QB (Jeff George Jr) who had been creamed by a combined score of 81-25 the two previous week’s with George at QB.

It was a loss to a poor Illinois team despite MSU running 90 offensive plays to just 53 for the Illini. The offense moved the ball but was obviously extremely inefficient. They crossed inside the Illinois 36-yards line on 8 of their 12 possessions but scored just 2 TD’s and kicked 4 FG’s on those possessions. They were forced to punt from the Illinois 36, 40, and 45 yard line. Let’s not forget we’re talking about a team that was in College Football’s “Final 4” last season. Turnover margin and red zone efficiency have dropped big time and are keys to this huge decline. Last year they were 23rd nationally in turnover margin and this year they are 125th! They also rank 125th in red zone efficiency which is a big reason they average just 23 PPG which is down a full TD from last season (30 PPG). Can they turn it around vs Rutgers this week? If not, this team is obviously done if they aren’t already.

Rutgers – Watch out for this Rutgers team. Well we don’t want to get too hyped up on that but this team is definitely improving. Since switching QB’s from Laviano to Rescigno two weeks ago, the Knights have lost 34-32 at Minnesota and 33-27 vs Indiana. While they obviously lost both of those games so improvement is relative, let’s remember this team lost their first four Big Ten games by a combined score of 174-14 (although games vs Michigan & Ohio State are included in those numbers). After a very good first start vs Minnesota a few weeks ago, Rescigno was solid again throwing for 258 yards and 1 TD.

The Rutgers offense was helped by 4 Indiana turnovers which led directly to 2 of their 3 TD’s. Defensive they continue to stink. They allowed Indiana to rack up 567 total yards which keeps Rutgers dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) giving up a ridiculous 485 YPG. Which Rutgers team shows up here? The one that was beaten handily by Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State (the last 2 are obviously not a big surprise) or the team that lost their other 3 Big Ten games vs Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana by a combined 15 points?

Last Year – MSU has won both games since Rutgers entered the Big Ten. Last year was a tight 31-24 win at Rutgers and the year before was an easy 45-3 home win.

Inside the Numbers – MSU already has 7 losses this year after losing just 5 total games between 2013-2015. Michigan State has won 34 straight games (outright wins) when favored by 14 or more dating back to the 2009 season. Rutgers has been a road dog of 14 or more 71 times since 1980. They are 2-68-1 SU in those games.

Northwestern (-13.5) at Purdue – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue – This team has put up solid fights in the first half of many games. They are often “hanging around” at halftime only to get blown out in the 2nd half. It happened again last week at Purdue led Minnesota 28-23 at half but lost the 2nd half 21-3 in their 44-31 loss. The last three weeks vs Nebraska, Penn State, and Minnesota, the Boilers led or were tied at the half of each winning the 1st half battle by a combined score of 59-50. They have also been destroyed in each of those 2nd halves losing in those games by a combined score of 78-10 after the break! In those three games, the Boilers have had 23 offensive possessions, scored just one TD & one FG, punted 10 times, turned the ball over 7 times, and 4 drives ended on downs when Purdue went for it on 4th down.

Those are some putrid second half numbers. Purdue defense, however is the key problem for this team. They continue to get shredded on the ground giving up 288 YPG rushing in Big Ten play and the Gophers did their part rolling up 235 yards rushing last week. They are also dead last in the league allowing 44 PPG in conference play. This team has now played 3 games under interim coach Gerad Parker and lost all three. They now have very little chance to get to .500 as they’d have to win their remaining three games. Is this team close to folding? If they lose another one this weekend, we’d have to say the chances are pretty good.

Northwestern – The Northwestern offense was rolling along nicely averaging 34 PPG their previous four games entering last week’s game vs Wisconsin. The Badgers top notch defense shut them down to just 7 points in a 21-7 Northwestern loss. They only crossed midfield 3 times in their 13 offensive possessions and had 5 three and outs. The Cats weren’t able to get anything going on the ground with just 19 total attempts for 39 yards. They knew they’d have trouble running the ball against the Wisconsin defense and came out throwing with 8 of their first 10 plays being passes. QB Thorson attempted 52 passes, which was by far the most in his career, and completed 28 of them. While NW ran the ball only 19 times, UW kept it on the ground 57 times and thus dominated the time of possession with a 2 to 1 advantage.

The NW defense actually played fairly well. They held Wisconsin to just 333 total yards although that was a bit skewed as Badger QB Bart Houston took 47 yards in losses on the final drive simply running backwards to try and run out the clock. It was the third straight game the Wildcat defense held their opponent below their scoring average. At 4-5, NW has to close out the season strong to make sure they get to a bowl game. With games at Purdue, at Minnesota, and Illinois that is definitely doable.

Last Year – These two have met twice since 2010 with Northwestern taking both games. They won 21-14 last season and 38-14 in 2014.

Inside the Numbers – Northwestern has won 6 of the last 9 in this series. Prior to that, the Boilers were 18-4 vs Northwestern from 1980 – 2003. Northwestern has been a double digit, conference road favorite only THREE times since 1980. The most recent was in 2005. They are 2-1 both SU & ATS in those games. Purdue has been an underdog in this series only 6 times in the 31 meetings since 1980 (2-4 SU & 4-2 ATS).

Ohio State (-29.5) at Maryland – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Maryland – The Terps began the season winning their first 4 games and it looked like new coach DJ Durkin was a shoe in for a post-season bowl bid. Maryland has since lost 4 of their last 5 including last week’s 59-3 whitewashing at Michigan. Their only win during this 5 games stretch was at home vs Michigan State who is still winless in the Big Ten. The Maryland defense, which looked good early allowing 17 points or less in their first four games, has looked terrible as of late. Two weeks ago they allowed 650 yards to a struggling Indiana offense and last Saturday Michigan stomped them for 660 yards. Those numbers include almost 700 yards rushing allowed the last two weeks.

That could be a recipe for disaster facing an Ohio State offense that definitely got back on track last week with 62 points and 590 yards vs a solid Nebraska defense. Will the Terp defense allow over 600 yards for the third consecutive game? It certainly looks like a possibility. Durkin has shuffled his starting line up on defense this week as it looks like he’ll go with 4 new starters including two on the defensive line. They are banged up on the other side of the ball with starting QB Hills questionable with a shoulder injury, top RB Johnson possibly out with a shoulder issue, and starting left tackle Dunn also a game time decision with an injury.

Ohio State – After struggling on offense for three consecutive games, the Buckeyes hit the after burners last week and put up 62 points and almost 600 yards on the Huskers. The 62-point outburst was almost as many points as they had scored in their previous three games combined (68 in regulation). They scored on every possession except one and that was their final drive of the game which ended inside the Nebraska 40-yard line as time expired. The Bucks also put up 238 yards on the ground as they have not outgained and outrushed every opponent except one (Wisconsin). It was their 4th win by at least 45 points this season. The Buckeye defense had been “struggling” a bit coming in allowing 2 of their previous 3 opponents to top 400 yards (Northwestern & Wisconsin).

They played one of the best games of the season vs Nebraska giving up just 209 total yards and only 9 first downs. The Husker offense got inside the OSU 45-yard line only three times the entire game. We have to say this is an interesting number. The spread sits at Maryland +28.5 & +29 which is the same number they were AT Michigan last week. Only difference is this week they are at home against a team that most view as comparable and fairly even with Michigan. That tells us this line is probably inflated but with the Terp injuries and struggles on defense, we can’t say we’ll jump in on this one.

Last Year – Ohio State has dominated both meetings between these two winning 49-28 last year and 52-24 in 2014.

Inside the Numbers – Maryland has gone OVER the total in 13 of their last 18 home games. The Terps have been a home dog of +28 or more just 5 times since 1980. They are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in those games. Interestingly enough, all of those games were against Florida State back in Maryland’s ACC days. OSU has been a road favorite of this magnitude (-28 or more) just twice since 1998. Those games were both in 2013 at Purdue and at Illinois (1-1 ATS).

Illinois at Wisconsin (-26.5) – (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin – We felt Wisconsin was in a very tough spot last weekend. They had come off a number of tough, emotional type games (Michigan, Ohio St, Iowa, & Nebraska) including 2 OT’s. They were facing a dangerous Northwestern team that was playing their best football of the season and took Ohio State to the wire on the road a week earlier. Even with that, the Badgers just continued to impress handling NW 21-7 and holding a hot Wildcat offense who had averaged 30+ points over their last four games in check. Now they come in favored by 26.5 vs an Illinois team that beat Michigan State week. What’s interesting about that number is Wisconsin averages just 24 PPG thus they are favored by more points than they average offensively. They have only scored more than 26 points twice this season vs Akron & Michigan State.

With their win over Northwestern and Nebraska’s loss at Ohio State, Wisconsin now controls their own destiny to the Big Ten West Title. The simply need to beat Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota and they go to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title game. If past history has anything to say, they are almost a shoe in as the Badgers are 31-1 against those three opponents dating back to 2004. If they can pull it off, it would be Wisconsin’s fourth Big Ten Title game appearance in the last six seasons.

Illinois – The Illini pulled a big upset at home last week beating Michigan State 31-27. If you simply took a look at the boxscore and not the final score, you would have thought the Spartans beat the Illini easily. In the win, Illinois was -189 in yardage, -14 first downs, and -20:00 minutes in time of possession and still won by 4. Jeff George Jr remained at QB with starter Wes Lunt still week to week (expected out again this week) and his back up Chayce Crouch out for the season. In the three games George has been the starter, the Illini are 1-2 but have been outgained in each game by a grand total of 613 yards or an average of 204 YPG.

Going back further, since their opener vs FCS Murray State, the Illini have been outgained in every game but one. They outgained Purdue by 40 yards and have been outgained by their other seven opponents since the opener by a combined 1,106 yards (158 YPG). Wisconsin will be Illinois’ fifth ranked team they’ve faced so far this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of 24 points and this spread is currently Wisconsin -26.5.

Last Year – Wisconsin went to Illinois as a 4.5 point favorite last year, lost starting QB Joel Stave during the game, but still won 24-13. It was Wisconsin’s sixth straight win over Illinois.

Inside the Numbers – Wisconsin has dominated this series going 15-3-1 over the last 19 meetings. However, Wisconsin has only beaten Illinois by more than 26 points (the current spread) ONE time since 1980. The Illini are 15-24 ATS the last 39 times they’ve been an underdog.

Penn State (-7) at Indiana – (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Indiana – The Hoosiers went to Rutgers last week and topped the Knights 33-27 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score indicated. The truth is IU dominated the game with 27 first downs (13 for Rutgers) and 567 total yards (351 for Rutgers). The problem was the Hoosiers turned the ball over 4 times in the game. Not only did they turn the ball over, but two of those giveaways led directly to 14 of Rutgers 27 points. On top of that, IU was unsuccessful on two short field goals and on two other possessions pushed the ball inside the Scarlet Knights 30-yard line and came away with no points. Minus being inefficient on the few drives we just spoke of, the offense as a whole played very well for the second straight week.

After struggling early in the Big Ten season in comparison to other recent IU offenses, they’ve kicked it in the last two weeks totaling over 1,200 yards. After getting outgained in each of their first four conference games, the Hoosiers have out yarded their last two opponents by a combined 349 yards. They need one more win to qualify for their second bowl appearance in as many years (no bowls since 2007 before last season) but the road isn’t easy with PSU this week, at Michigan next week, before closing with arch rival Purdue.

Penn State – Penn State is rolling right now. Since getting a bit “lucky” to beat OSU a few weeks ago, this Nittany Lion team then scored 62 on Purdue and last week destroyed Iowa 41-14. The Hawkeyes were coming off a bye and actually in a pretty good spot for a solid performance as they were as healthy as they had been in a while. Our handicap had this game closer to -10 than -7.5 so once it dropped below a TD we jumped on PSU as our Top Play at -6. It was no fluke and it could be argued the Nittany Lions dominated even more than the final score indicated. They outgained Iowa by a whopping 365 yards and rushed for 359 yards. They pushed into Iowa territory on every possession except one and ended the game taking knees on the Hawkeye 9-yard line. The only time they didn’t push across the 50-yard line they made it to the PSU 45.

The defense simply thwarted a rested and healthy Iowa offense holding them to just 234 total yards on 4.5 YPP. Half of Iowa’s 10 offensive possessions resulted in 14 yards or less. The Nits defense has really stepped it up since getting a few starting LB’s back in the line up who had been out since early in the season. They have allowed 341 yards or less in 3 of their last 4 games and none of those four opponents have topped 24 points. As we stated in last week’s edition, if Penn State can win out beating IU, Rutgers, and Michigan State, and Ohio State beats Michigan they will at least have a share of the Big Ten East title.

Last Year – Penn State rolled to an easy 29-7 win last year vs Indiana nearly doubling the Hoosiers in total offense (420 to 234).

Inside the Numbers – Talk about dominating a series. PSU has won 18 of the 19 meetings between these two since the 1980 season. Indiana’s only win in this series game in 2013 as they whipped PSU 44-24 as 3.5 point underdogs. The Nittany Lions have NEVER been an underdog in this series. Coming into this season, PSU was just 2-8 the last 10 times they were road favorites dating back to 2011. They are 1-0 in that spot this year winning and covering at Purdue.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Auburn at Georgia**

-- Auburn remains alive for everything going into this Saturday’s SEC showdown between the hedges with Georgia. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Auburn (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 48. Gamblers could take UGA on the money line for a monster +320 return (risk $100 to win $320).

-- Since 2002, Georgia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has only been a home underdog three times. The Bulldogs covered in their lone home ‘dog spot this year, taking the cash as 3.5-point ‘dogs in a 34-31 home loss to Tennessee.

-- Georgia had lost four of its last five games going into Lexington last week, but it knocked off Kentucky 27-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. The 51 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 52-point tally. Rodrigo Blankenship booted a walk-off 25-yard field goal to secure the victory as time expired. Blankenship had already connected on three kicks from 49, 42 and 25 yards out. UGA enjoyed a 460-308 advantage over UK in total yards, but three lost fumbles allowed the Wildcats to hang around. True freshman QB Jacob Eason completed 17-of-31 passes for 245 yards and one TD without an interception. Sony Michel ran for 127 yards and one TD on 19 totes, while Nick Chubb finished with 85 rushing yards on 21 attempts.

-- Eason has been up and down, but he has all the makings of a QB who will play on Sundays for a long time. He has connected on 53.3 percent of his passes for 1,754 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Isaiah McKenzie has 32 receptions for 459 yards and six TDs.

-- Chubb has rushed for a team-best 691 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Michel has 487 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.

-- Auburn has won six consecutive games while cashing tickets at a 5-1 ATS clip. Gus Malzahn’s squad has been particularly sharp on the road, winning 38-14 at Mississippi St. and 40-29 at Ole Miss.

-- Auburn was fortunate to capture a 23-16 win over Vanderbilt last week as a 23.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Tigers played the first half without starting QB Sean White, who had not practiced all week due to a shoulder injury. However, with Vandy ahead 13-10 at intermission, White gave it a go in the second half. He completed 10-of-13 passes for 106 yards and one TD without an interception. Kamryn Pettway rushed 25 times for 173 yards, but he pulled up lame with a hamstring injury on a long run that would’ve been a TD to put the game on ice. But when Pettway went down, Vandy’s defense held and forced a field-goal attempt. That kick was blocked on a sensational play by Zach Cunningham, who timed it perfect and leaped over the offensive guard without making contact and easily blocked the attempt. Then the Commodores penetrated into Auburn territory in the final minute thanks to a first-down pass off a deflection on a fourth-and-18 play. But Kyle Shurmur, who played the best game of his career, made his only mistake and was intercepted inside the red zone. Nevertheless, Vandy easily took the cash as the double-digit ‘dog.

-- White has been the SEC’s biggest surprise. He has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 145 yards and a pair of scores. White’s favorite target is Tony Stevens, who has 24 receptions for 408 yards and three TDs.

-- Pettway leads the SEC in rushing with 1,106 yards and seven TDs. He averages 6.4 YPC. Pettway is listed as ‘questionable’ at UGA and will likely be a game-time decision. If he can’t go, the ground game should be in good hands with Kerryon Johnson, who has rushed for 616 yards and nine TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.

-- Auburn has compiled a 5-2 spread record in seven games as a road favorite during Malzahn’s tenure.

-- UGA has lost two of its three home games both SU and ATS this year.

-- Georgia is ranked 16th in the country in total defense and 20th in rush defense.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 6-3 overall clip for UGA, going 2-1 in its three home outings. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 49.6 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Auburn, 1-1 in its road assignments.

-- Kickoff in Athens is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.


LSU at Arkansas**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had LSU (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) installed as a seven-point road favorite with a total of 46. The Razorbacks were available to win outright for a payout in the +240 neighborhood.

-- Arkansas (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) bounced back from its worst loss during Bret Bielema’s tenure to spank Florida 31-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The 41 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 44-point total. Santos Ramirez put the Razorbacks on the board first with a 24-yard pick-six off of Luke Del Rio on the Gators’ first play from scrimmage. Rawleigh Williams rushed for 148 yards and two TDs on 26 carries, while Austin Allen threw for 243 yards and one TD. Drew Morgan had a game-high seven receptions for 95 yards and one TD.

-- Arkansas is 5-2 ATS with four outright victories in its last seven games as a home ‘dog. The Hogs have won five of six home games this year while going 3-3 ATS. The only defeat at home came to top-ranked Alabama.

-- Arkansas junior QB Austin Allen has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,291 yards with a 19/8 TD-INT ratio. He throws to one of the nation’s best and most underrated group of WRs led by Morgan, who has hauled in 48 receptions for 515 yards and three TDs. Jared Cornelius has 24 catches for 465 yards and four TDs, while Keon Hatcher has 29 grabs for 441 yards and five TDs. Jeremy Sprinkle has made 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs after replacing Chargers’ rookie Hunter Henry at the tight end position.

-- Williams has rushed for 955 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Devwah Whaley is a solid back-up, producing 383 yards and one score while averaging 5.4 YPC.

-- LSU is off a heartbreaking 10-0 loss to Alabama as a seven-point home underdog. The defense was spectacular, but the offense was a train wreck and special teams didn’t help much, either. The offense produced merely six first downs, 125 total yards and 33 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Leonard Fournette was limited to 35 rushing yards on 17 carries. The game remained scoreless until Alabama freshman QB Jalen Hurts ran for a 21-yard score with 13:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide tacked on a 25-yard field goal from Adam Griffith to put the game on ice with 2:41 left. The Tigers have now lost six in a row to Alabama.

-- Before falling to the Tide, LSU had won three straight games since the dismissal of Les Miles following an 18-13 loss at Auburn. Interim head coach Ed Orgeron remain in the mix as a candidate for the full-time gig, but he won’t be much longer if the Tigers can’t get a victory in Fayetteville. Orgeron led them to home wins over Missouri (42-7), So. Miss (45-10) and Ole Miss (38-21), but this will be their first game on the road with ‘Coach O’ calling the shots. They haven’t left Baton Rouge since the loss on The Plains, and their only other road outing was the 16-14 loss to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in the opener.

-- Fournette missed three games, but he returned against the Rebels to rush for a school-record 284 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries. For the season, Fournette has 705 rushing yards and five TDs with a 7.0 YPC average. He also has 13 catches for 102 yards. Derrius Guice has rushed for 629 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

-- Purdue grad transfer Danny Etling has been the starting QB since Week 3. Etling has connected on 58.5 percent of his throws for 1,221 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- Arkansas has dominated LSU in the last two meetings, including a 31-14 win in Baton Rouge last year. When they collided in Fayetteville two seasons ago, the Hogs dealt out cream-cheese treatment in the form of a 17-0 clubbing.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Arkansas, 5-1 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average combined scores of 59.9 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-0-2 overall for the Tigers, who have seen their games average combined scores of 40.5 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Florida is somehow a double-digit home favorite vs. South Carolina. The Gators have limped to a 3-6 spread record in nine double-digit ‘chalk’ spots since Jim McElwain took over for his counterpart this weekend, Will Muschamp. The Gamecocks have ripped off three consecutive wins since Muschamp made the best decision of his head-coaching career. With South Carolina going into an open date with a 2-4 record, Muschamp elected to take the redshirt off of four-star freshman recruit Jake Bentley, who has responded by playing lights out and leading the ‘Cocks to three straight wins. Bentley has completed 73.0 percent of his passes for 622 yards and six TDs without an interception. Indeed, there’s just a tad bit of irony in the fact that Muschamp returns to The Swamp with what appears to be a beautiful QB situation set up not just for the present, but also for the next 2-3 seasons. Don’t bring up the phrase ‘QB situation’ in Gainesville these days. That’s because we’re now deep into the seventh season of UF getting deplorable play at the most important position on the field. Since Tim Tebow graduated in 2009, the following players have taken snaps: Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, John Brantley, Jeff Driskel, Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Murphy, Skyler Mornhingweg, Treon Harris, Will Grier, Luke Del Rio and Austin Appleby. None has enjoyed any sustained success like former UF QBs such as Steve Spurrier, John Reaves, Wayne Peace, Kerwin Bell, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Doug Johnson, Rex Grossman, Chris Leak and Tebow.

-- Adding to UF’s woes is a laundry list of injured players. Before getting spanked 31-10 at Arkansas, UF had the nation’s second-ranked defense. However, that unit won’t have its two leading tacklers against USC. Senior LB Jarrad Davis (ankle) and Alex Anzalone (broken forearm) are ‘out’ along with Del Rio (shoulder) and starting junior center Cam Dillard. In addition, sophomore DE CeCe Jefferson will be a game-time decision. Austin Appleby will get his third start of the season. The grad transfer from Purdue has three TD passes compared to just one interception. CBS will have the kick from Steve Spurrier Field at noon Eastern.

-- If my remarks above didn’t make it clear, I’m all over South Carolina catching the double-digit number. And as much as it pains me to say it, nobody should be shocked if the Gamecocks cash money-line tickets in the +350ish range.

-- Regardless of whether his team wins or loses, Muschamp will – as always – be a class act on Saturday. (Yes, I don’t dock anyone class points when they angrily cuss at refs after they make incompetent calls.)

We learned early Friday that Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze has decided to take the redshirt off of five-star freshman recruit Shea Patterson and start him Saturday night at Texas A&M. With star senior QB Chad Kelly suffering a season-ending injury in last week’s non-covering home win over Ga. Southern, the 4-5 Rebels were left to make a tough call. But was it really that difficult to go this way? First of all, if Patterson is ‘as advertised,’ he’s not going to be around for a fourth year anyway. Secondly, with probation looming, most of the momentum earned during Freeze’s tenure basically evaporates if Ole Miss doesn’t go bowling. These are three extremely important games remaining on the regular-season slate, and the Rebels have to win two of them to get invited to the postseason. They are 10-point ‘dogs to the Aggies, who fell from No. 4 in the College Football rankings after losing 35-28 at Mississippi St. as 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ last week.

-- The loss was costly for Kevin Sumlin’s team in more ways than one. Trevor Knight, who was enjoying a banner season after transferring over from Oklahoma, sustained a season-ending shoulder injury against the Bulldogs.

-- Ole Miss owns a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a road ‘dog on Freeze’s watch.

-- After getting out of RedStick unscathed with a 10-0 victory compliments of a spectacular defensive performance, top-ranked and undefeated Alabama moves on from LSU to a home game with Mississippi St. at noon Eastern on ESPN. Most spots have the Tide tagged as a 29-point home favorite.

-- Tennessee is a 14-point home favorite vs. Kentucky. If the Vols can win out (they won’t because I believe they’re going to lose to Vandy), they’ll win the SEC East if UF loses one of its two remaining league games (vs. USC and at LSU). Butch Jones has indicated that RB Alvin Kamara will return to the lineup vs. UK. Also, there’s a chance CB Cam Sutton may play for the first time since getting injured in a 28-19 home win over Ohio in Week 3. Malik Foreman remains a question mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 4-5 1-5 3-5-1 3-6
Clemson 9-0 6-0 5-4 3-6
Duke 3-6 0-5 6-3 2-7
Florida State 6-3 3-3 4-4 4-4
Georgia Tech 5-4 2-4 3-4-1 5-2-1
Louisville 8-1 6-1 5-3-1 7-2
Miami (Fla.) 5-4 2-3 5-4 5-4
North Carolina 7-2 5-1 6-3 4-5
North Carolina State 4-5 1-4 6-3 4-4-1
Pittsburgh 5-4 2-3 3-6 8-1
Syracuse 4-5 2-3 4-5 2-7
Virginia 2-7 1-4 4-4-1 3-5-1
Virginia Tech 7-2 5-1 4-5 5-4
Wake Forest 6-3 3-2 5-4 4-5


North Carolina at Duke (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Battle for the Victory Bell takes place at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham Thursday night, and it is expected to be a chilly night with temperatures around 50 degrees. But the action will be heated on the field, as UNC looks to keep its hopes alive for a Coastal Division win and appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Duke, meanwhile, is simply looking to keep their slim hopes for bowl eligibility alive, as they need to win out. The home team has covered in five of the past seven meetings, and Duke is about an 11-point underdog as of Wednesday morning. The 'under' is 4-1 in UNC's past five ACC games, and 7-0 in their past seven Thursday appearances. For Duke, the under is 4-1 in their past five conference tilts, 5-0 in their past five at home and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record.

Boston College at Florida State (Fri. - ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Boston College heads down to Tallahassee to battle a Florida State team which is favored by three touchdowns. The Eagles were riding high after a 21-14 win at N.C. State two weeks ago, but they were smacked back down to Earth with a 52-7 home loss to Louisville last weekend. FSU narrowly defeated the Wolfpack last week in Raleigh, and look to avoid their third loss in the four home games for the 'Noles. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five for FSU, and 4-0 in their past four Friday appearances. The 'under' is 41-16-1 in the past 58 road games for the Eagles, and 6-1-1 in his past eight Friday appearances. The under is also 33-16-2 in their past 51 against teams with a winning overall record.

North Carolina State at Syracuse (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
There will be a battle of 4-5 teams taking the field at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse Saturday afternoon, and the Wolfpack enter on a four-game losing streak after a 4-1 start to the season. The 'under' also is 4-1 in their past five games. N.C. State has struggled away from Raleigh, going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS. Syracuse had a pair of wins against Virginia Tech and at Boston College before getting shellacked 54-0 at Clemson last weekend. One thing that has been consistent with Syracuse - the 'under'. The Orange have had an 'under' result in each of the past four, and six of the past seven outings.

Miami-Florida at Virginia (ACC Network, 2:00 p.m.)
Miami snapped a four-game losing streak last weekend against Pittsburgh, and now they hit the road for Virginia. The 'U' heads to Scott Stadium looking to snap a two-game losing streak on the road. The Cavaliers failed to keep their hopes for bowl eligibility alive last weekend, losing for the fourth consecutive weekend. Miami heads in 2-7 ATS in their past nine against teams with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. UVA is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 conference battles, and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 games overall, although just 1-3 ATS in their past four weekends. In this series, Miami is 1-5 ATS in their past six against Virginia, and the underdog is 11-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings. Miami is a 10-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

Pittsburgh at Clemson (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Pitts rolls down to the upstate of South Carolina looking to deal the Clemson Tigers their first setback of the season. It won't be easy, as the Tigers are 20-point favorites as of Wednesday morning. The Panthers haven't had a lot of success against the number, going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall. Clemson has covered six of the past eight at home, including 4-0 ATS in their past four home games aginst a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 overall against a team with a winning record. There is a great disparity in the total trends, as the 'over' is 8-0 in Pittsburgh's past eight overall, and 5-0 in their past five road games, while the 'under' is 4-1 in Clemson's past five at home and 7-3 in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
In the 'Tech Bowl', the Ramblin' Wreck head to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. The Gobblers enter this game as two-touchdown favorites, looking to keep themselves ahead of UNC in the battle for the Coastal Division title. The Yellow Jackets have had a lot of difficulty against the number going 4-13-1 ATS in the past 18 games overall, and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning record. Worse, they're 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine conference games and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight on the road. Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home against a team with a winning road record, but they're 0-5 ATS in their past five at Lane Stadium against the Yellow Jackets. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their past six meetings, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series.

Wake Forest at Louisville (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Wake Forest became bowl eligible with a seven-point home win against Virginia, but they'll have their work cut out if they hope to pick up a seventh win this week. Louisville is almost a five-touchdown favorite as they look to keep their playoff hopes and national championship hopes on track. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games, and 4-1 ATS in the past five ACC outings. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, and 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. However, the Cards enter just 2-3-1 ATS over the past six games, and they're 0-2-1 ATS in the past three as a favorite of 31 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-7 0-6 1-8 5-4
Arizona State 5-4 2-4 5-4 5-4
California 4-5 2-4 4-5 7-2
Colorado 7-2 5-1 8-1 3-6
Oregon 3-6 1-5 1-7-1 6-3
Oregon State 2-7 1-5 7-2 4-5
Southern California 6-3 5-2 5-4 2-7
Stanford 6-3 4-3 5-4 2-7
UCLA 3-6 1-5 3-6 3-5-1
Utah 7-2 4-2 5-4 5-4
Washington 9-0 6-0 5-4 8-1
Washington State 7-2 6-0 5-4 6-3

Utah at Arizona State (Thu. - FOX Sports 1, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Utah heads to Tempe looking to get back on track after a 31-24 setback against Washington two weeks ago. Now, they'll take on a skidding Arizona State team which has dropped three in a row, including an ugly 54-35 setback at Oregon last time out Oct. 29. The Utes head in 3-1 ATS over the past four outings, and 5-2 ATS over the past seven games. Arizona State has covered every other game over the past eight outings, and they're 5-4 ATS overall this season. The Sun Devils are 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS at home this season, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games overall. AZ State is also 7-1 ATS in their past eight against winning teams, and 8-0 ATS in their past eight home games. The 'over' is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 7-2 ATS in their past nine games on the road. The 'over' is 11-2 in the past 13 Thursday appearances for Arizona State, and 5-2 in their past seven games at home.

Stanford at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m.)
Stanford heads up to Autzen Stadium in Eugene to battle a wounded, yet still dangerous Oregon team. The Cardinal are field-goal favorites as of Wednesday morning, and the public seems to like Stanford quite a bit. Stanford has actually performed better against the number on the road as opposed to their home mark. The Cardinal are 3-1 SU/ATS in four trips away from 'The Farm'. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for Stanford, and it is 7-2 in nine games overall. Oregon showed their potential in a 54-35 game against Arizona State, as they proved their offense can still be dangerous. In fact, the Ducks have scored 32 or more points in seven of their nine games overall while allowing 35 or more points in seven straight outings. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six games for Oregon, while the 'under' is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford.

Southern California at Washington (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
USC rebounded nicely after an ugly start to the season, as the Trojans have come a long way since a 52-6 whitewashing at the hands of Alabama back on Sept. 3 in the opener. After a 1-3 SU/ATS start, USC has won five straight while covering four of those outings, including each of the last three. The Trojans offense is hitting on all cylinders with star on the rise QB Sam Darnold. USC has posted 45 or more points in each of the past three games, although they'll have difficulty hitting that mark against a Washington team which has allowed 17 or fewer points in five of their nine outings. Washington's offense has been deadly, posting 41 or more point in seven of their nine games, while posting at least 31 points in every game. As such, the 'over' is 6-0 in the past six, and 8-1 overall. The 'under' is 5-0 in the past five for USC, and just 1-7 over their past eight. The total sits at 62 as of Wednesday morning.

Oregon State at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 9:00 p.m.)
Oregon State has really struggled this season, officially dropping their seventh game of the season to lose bowl eligibility. But the Beavers have been a friend to bettors at the window, covering five straight outings. That includes an impressive 3-1 ATS mark in four games on the road. UCLA played Colorado tough last weekend, losing 20-10 in Boulder, and they have alternated covers in each of the past six games. Overall they're 3-6 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in four games at home. The 'under' is 3-1 in UCLA's past four, and 5-2 over the past seven. The 'under' cashed in Corvallis last season, as the Bruins blanked the Beavs 41-0. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of the past six meetings in this series dating back to Sept. 29, 2007.

Colorado at Arizona (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
The Buffaloes head to the desert to top the Wildcats while looking to start a new cover streak. Colorado covered their first eight games, but failed to cover for the first time last weekend in a 20-10 win against UCLA at home. The Wildcats are 15-point underdogs at home, and they're 1-4 ATS in five games as underdogs of 9 1/2 or more points this season. Colorado is 2-2 SU on the road this season, but they're a perfect 4-0 ATS. Not only have the Buffaloes been consistent against the numbers, but bettors have hit plenty of Colorado parlays with the 'under', too. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for the Buffs. For Arizona, the 'under' is 3-2 in five home games.

California at Washington State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
California started the season 3-2, including an impressive victory over Utah back on Oct. 1. However, they have struggled since with just one victory, an overtime victory, over their past four outings. They includes an ugly 66-27 setback against Washington last weekend, and embarrassing loss at home. Defense has let the Bears down big time, as Cal has given up 43 or more points in each of their past four, ans seven of the past eight outings. Washington State started out with an ugly loss to Eastern Washington of the FCS in their opener, and they started out 0-2 SU. However, since entering conference play the Cougars are a perfect 6-0/3-3 ATS, keeping pace with rival Washington in the race for the North Division in the Pac-12. The Apple Cup is going to be a war if the Cougs can avoid an upset between now and then. The Cougs are just 1-3 ATS over their past four, and just 2-3 ATS as favorites as double-digit favorites. However, as a 16-point favorite last weekend they picked up a resounding 69-7 win against Arizona, and they're 3-1 ATS in their past four at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Don't buy into 'style points' when it comes to capping College Football Playoff contenders
By HARVARD SPORTS ANALYSIS COLLECTIVE

With the release of the first College Football Playoff Rankings over a week ago and the release of the second round of them less than two days ago, college programs are gearing up for a run at the four-team playoffs, and bettors are starting to factor this into their bets.

One of the storylines buzzing about at this time of year is how teams competing for a playoff spot have to play for “style points” - i.e. win big. This is definitely something that coaches and players are aware of. Just this past weekend Bobby Petrino, coach of Louisville, joked that perhaps he should have tried to beat FSU (whom they played earlier in the season and won 63-20) by 80 in order to improve their CFB ranking.

This is also a thing that football bettors and betting pundits are aware of. Multiple articles have been published in the past week or so on fairly high-profile sites, with one of the more glaring headlines on CBS warning bettors to “beware of style-point games”.

So this a concrete thing that matters, both to players/coaches and bettors. No question about that. But do lines adjust accordingly to teams trying to rack up style points? Is there actually any edge in these games? Should bettors actually be wary of style-point games?

To get an idea of this we can look at how teams near the top of the CFB rankings (specifically, in the Top 6) have done ATS and with respect to Over/Unders over the past two years. If lines do not properly account for racking up style points, we would expect these teams to do better ATS and probably hit more Overs than Unders. Does this actually occur?

The short answer is no.

Admittedly, there’s a relatively small sample size, but over the past two years there’s no evidence at all that lines fail to properly account for teams seeking style points. Teams ranked in the Top 6 of the CFB Rankings one week have gone 28-29 ATS the following week, and have only hit 27 Overs compared to 29 Unders (and one push).

So why do we observe no effect despite “style points” being such a prominent idea that coaches are making references to it in press conferences? There are basically two possibilities.

One is that even though teams may realize they have to play for style points, there aren’t many games where they can really run up the score. A lot of the games later in the season are conference games (including conference championships) and they are bound to be close games where they can’t just run up the score because the other team is nearly as good as they are.

The other possibility is that oddsmakers do properly account for teams trying to score “style points”, and thus there’s no edge. Programs ranked No. 1 through No. 6 are among the country’s elite and are regularly dealt inflated spreads to reflect the public appeal at the window.

Either way, there’s no evidence to support the idea that betting on top-ranked teams by the CFB Rankings to either win ATS or hit the Over is a profitable strategy.

So when you’re tempted to bet on a team like Washington or Louisville, which need to seemingly impress the committee with a big win, you may want to think twice about buying into “style points”.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Don't buy into 'style points' when it comes to capping College Football Playoff contenders
By HARVARD SPORTS ANALYSIS COLLECTIVE

With the release of the first College Football Playoff Rankings over a week ago and the release of the second round of them less than two days ago, college programs are gearing up for a run at the four-team playoffs, and bettors are starting to factor this into their bets.

One of the storylines buzzing about at this time of year is how teams competing for a playoff spot have to play for “style points” - i.e. win big. This is definitely something that coaches and players are aware of. Just this past weekend Bobby Petrino, coach of Louisville, joked that perhaps he should have tried to beat FSU (whom they played earlier in the season and won 63-20) by 80 in order to improve their CFB ranking.

This is also a thing that football bettors and betting pundits are aware of. Multiple articles have been published in the past week or so on fairly high-profile sites, with one of the more glaring headlines on CBS warning bettors to “beware of style-point games”.

So this a concrete thing that matters, both to players/coaches and bettors. No question about that. But do lines adjust accordingly to teams trying to rack up style points? Is there actually any edge in these games? Should bettors actually be wary of style-point games?

To get an idea of this we can look at how teams near the top of the CFB rankings (specifically, in the Top 6) have done ATS and with respect to Over/Unders over the past two years. If lines do not properly account for racking up style points, we would expect these teams to do better ATS and probably hit more Overs than Unders. Does this actually occur?

The short answer is no.

Admittedly, there’s a relatively small sample size, but over the past two years there’s no evidence at all that lines fail to properly account for teams seeking style points. Teams ranked in the Top 6 of the CFB Rankings one week have gone 28-29 ATS the following week, and have only hit 27 Overs compared to 29 Unders (and one push).

So why do we observe no effect despite “style points” being such a prominent idea that coaches are making references to it in press conferences? There are basically two possibilities.

One is that even though teams may realize they have to play for style points, there aren’t many games where they can really run up the score. A lot of the games later in the season are conference games (including conference championships) and they are bound to be close games where they can’t just run up the score because the other team is nearly as good as they are.

The other possibility is that oddsmakers do properly account for teams trying to score “style points”, and thus there’s no edge. Programs ranked No. 1 through No. 6 are among the country’s elite and are regularly dealt inflated spreads to reflect the public appeal at the window.

Either way, there’s no evidence to support the idea that betting on top-ranked teams by the CFB Rankings to either win ATS or hit the Over is a profitable strategy.

So when you’re tempted to bet on a team like Washington or Louisville, which need to seemingly impress the committee with a big win, you may want to think twice about buying into “style points”.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Auburn at Georgia**

-- Auburn remains alive for everything going into this Saturday’s SEC showdown between the hedges with Georgia. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Auburn (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 48. Gamblers could take UGA on the money line for a monster +320 return (risk $100 to win $320).

-- Since 2002, Georgia (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has only been a home underdog three times. The Bulldogs covered in their lone home ‘dog spot this year, taking the cash as 3.5-point ‘dogs in a 34-31 home loss to Tennessee.

-- Georgia had lost four of its last five games going into Lexington last week, but it knocked off Kentucky 27-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. The 51 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 52-point tally. Rodrigo Blankenship booted a walk-off 25-yard field goal to secure the victory as time expired. Blankenship had already connected on three kicks from 49, 42 and 25 yards out. UGA enjoyed a 460-308 advantage over UK in total yards, but three lost fumbles allowed the Wildcats to hang around. True freshman QB Jacob Eason completed 17-of-31 passes for 245 yards and one TD without an interception. Sony Michel ran for 127 yards and one TD on 19 totes, while Nick Chubb finished with 85 rushing yards on 21 attempts.

-- Eason has been up and down, but he has all the makings of a QB who will play on Sundays for a long time. He has connected on 53.3 percent of his passes for 1,754 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Isaiah McKenzie has 32 receptions for 459 yards and six TDs.

-- Chubb has rushed for a team-best 691 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Michel has 487 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.

-- Auburn has won six consecutive games while cashing tickets at a 5-1 ATS clip. Gus Malzahn’s squad has been particularly sharp on the road, winning 38-14 at Mississippi St. and 40-29 at Ole Miss.

-- Auburn was fortunate to capture a 23-16 win over Vanderbilt last week as a 23.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Tigers played the first half without starting QB Sean White, who had not practiced all week due to a shoulder injury. However, with Vandy ahead 13-10 at intermission, White gave it a go in the second half. He completed 10-of-13 passes for 106 yards and one TD without an interception. Kamryn Pettway rushed 25 times for 173 yards, but he pulled up lame with a hamstring injury on a long run that would’ve been a TD to put the game on ice. But when Pettway went down, Vandy’s defense held and forced a field-goal attempt. That kick was blocked on a sensational play by Zach Cunningham, who timed it perfect and leaped over the offensive guard without making contact and easily blocked the attempt. Then the Commodores penetrated into Auburn territory in the final minute thanks to a first-down pass off a deflection on a fourth-and-18 play. But Kyle Shurmur, who played the best game of his career, made his only mistake and was intercepted inside the red zone. Nevertheless, Vandy easily took the cash as the double-digit ‘dog.

-- White has been the SEC’s biggest surprise. He has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 145 yards and a pair of scores. White’s favorite target is Tony Stevens, who has 24 receptions for 408 yards and three TDs.

-- Pettway leads the SEC in rushing with 1,106 yards and seven TDs. He averages 6.4 YPC. Pettway is listed as ‘questionable’ at UGA and will likely be a game-time decision. If he can’t go, the ground game should be in good hands with Kerryon Johnson, who has rushed for 616 yards and nine TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.

-- Auburn has compiled a 5-2 spread record in seven games as a road favorite during Malzahn’s tenure.

-- UGA has lost two of its three home games both SU and ATS this year.

-- Georgia is ranked 16th in the country in total defense and 20th in rush defense.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 6-3 overall clip for UGA, going 2-1 in its three home outings. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 49.6 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Auburn, 1-1 in its road assignments.

-- Kickoff in Athens is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.


LSU at Arkansas**

-- As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had LSU (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) installed as a seven-point road favorite with a total of 46. The Razorbacks were available to win outright for a payout in the +240 neighborhood.

-- Arkansas (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) bounced back from its worst loss during Bret Bielema’s tenure to spank Florida 31-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The 41 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 44-point total. Santos Ramirez put the Razorbacks on the board first with a 24-yard pick-six off of Luke Del Rio on the Gators’ first play from scrimmage. Rawleigh Williams rushed for 148 yards and two TDs on 26 carries, while Austin Allen threw for 243 yards and one TD. Drew Morgan had a game-high seven receptions for 95 yards and one TD.

-- Arkansas is 5-2 ATS with four outright victories in its last seven games as a home ‘dog. The Hogs have won five of six home games this year while going 3-3 ATS. The only defeat at home came to top-ranked Alabama.

-- Arkansas junior QB Austin Allen has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,291 yards with a 19/8 TD-INT ratio. He throws to one of the nation’s best and most underrated group of WRs led by Morgan, who has hauled in 48 receptions for 515 yards and three TDs. Jared Cornelius has 24 catches for 465 yards and four TDs, while Keon Hatcher has 29 grabs for 441 yards and five TDs. Jeremy Sprinkle has made 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs after replacing Chargers’ rookie Hunter Henry at the tight end position.

-- Williams has rushed for 955 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Devwah Whaley is a solid back-up, producing 383 yards and one score while averaging 5.4 YPC.

-- LSU is off a heartbreaking 10-0 loss to Alabama as a seven-point home underdog. The defense was spectacular, but the offense was a train wreck and special teams didn’t help much, either. The offense produced merely six first downs, 125 total yards and 33 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Leonard Fournette was limited to 35 rushing yards on 17 carries. The game remained scoreless until Alabama freshman QB Jalen Hurts ran for a 21-yard score with 13:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide tacked on a 25-yard field goal from Adam Griffith to put the game on ice with 2:41 left. The Tigers have now lost six in a row to Alabama.

-- Before falling to the Tide, LSU had won three straight games since the dismissal of Les Miles following an 18-13 loss at Auburn. Interim head coach Ed Orgeron remain in the mix as a candidate for the full-time gig, but he won’t be much longer if the Tigers can’t get a victory in Fayetteville. Orgeron led them to home wins over Missouri (42-7), So. Miss (45-10) and Ole Miss (38-21), but this will be their first game on the road with ‘Coach O’ calling the shots. They haven’t left Baton Rouge since the loss on The Plains, and their only other road outing was the 16-14 loss to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in the opener.

-- Fournette missed three games, but he returned against the Rebels to rush for a school-record 284 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries. For the season, Fournette has 705 rushing yards and five TDs with a 7.0 YPC average. He also has 13 catches for 102 yards. Derrius Guice has rushed for 629 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

-- Purdue grad transfer Danny Etling has been the starting QB since Week 3. Etling has connected on 58.5 percent of his throws for 1,221 yards with a 7/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- Arkansas has dominated LSU in the last two meetings, including a 31-14 win in Baton Rouge last year. When they collided in Fayetteville two seasons ago, the Hogs dealt out cream-cheese treatment in the form of a 17-0 clubbing.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Arkansas, 5-1 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average combined scores of 59.9 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-0-2 overall for the Tigers, who have seen their games average combined scores of 40.5 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Florida is somehow a double-digit home favorite vs. South Carolina. The Gators have limped to a 3-6 spread record in nine double-digit ‘chalk’ spots since Jim McElwain took over for his counterpart this weekend, Will Muschamp. The Gamecocks have ripped off three consecutive wins since Muschamp made the best decision of his head-coaching career. With South Carolina going into an open date with a 2-4 record, Muschamp elected to take the redshirt off of four-star freshman recruit Jake Bentley, who has responded by playing lights out and leading the ‘Cocks to three straight wins. Bentley has completed 73.0 percent of his passes for 622 yards and six TDs without an interception. Indeed, there’s just a tad bit of irony in the fact that Muschamp returns to The Swamp with what appears to be a beautiful QB situation set up not just for the present, but also for the next 2-3 seasons. Don’t bring up the phrase ‘QB situation’ in Gainesville these days. That’s because we’re now deep into the seventh season of UF getting deplorable play at the most important position on the field. Since Tim Tebow graduated in 2009, the following players have taken snaps: Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, John Brantley, Jeff Driskel, Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Murphy, Skyler Mornhingweg, Treon Harris, Will Grier, Luke Del Rio and Austin Appleby. None has enjoyed any sustained success like former UF QBs such as Steve Spurrier, John Reaves, Wayne Peace, Kerwin Bell, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Doug Johnson, Rex Grossman, Chris Leak and Tebow.

-- Adding to UF’s woes is a laundry list of injured players. Before getting spanked 31-10 at Arkansas, UF had the nation’s second-ranked defense. However, that unit won’t have its two leading tacklers against USC. Senior LB Jarrad Davis (ankle) and Alex Anzalone (broken forearm) are ‘out’ along with Del Rio (shoulder) and starting junior center Cam Dillard. In addition, sophomore DE CeCe Jefferson will be a game-time decision. Austin Appleby will get his third start of the season. The grad transfer from Purdue has three TD passes compared to just one interception. CBS will have the kick from Steve Spurrier Field at noon Eastern.

-- If my remarks above didn’t make it clear, I’m all over South Carolina catching the double-digit number. And as much as it pains me to say it, nobody should be shocked if the Gamecocks cash money-line tickets in the +350ish range.

-- Regardless of whether his team wins or loses, Muschamp will – as always – be a class act on Saturday. (Yes, I don’t dock anyone class points when they angrily cuss at refs after they make incompetent calls.)

We learned early Friday that Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze has decided to take the redshirt off of five-star freshman recruit Shea Patterson and start him Saturday night at Texas A&M. With star senior QB Chad Kelly suffering a season-ending injury in last week’s non-covering home win over Ga. Southern, the 4-5 Rebels were left to make a tough call. But was it really that difficult to go this way? First of all, if Patterson is ‘as advertised,’ he’s not going to be around for a fourth year anyway. Secondly, with probation looming, most of the momentum earned during Freeze’s tenure basically evaporates if Ole Miss doesn’t go bowling. These are three extremely important games remaining on the regular-season slate, and the Rebels have to win two of them to get invited to the postseason. They are 10-point ‘dogs to the Aggies, who fell from No. 4 in the College Football rankings after losing 35-28 at Mississippi St. as 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ last week.

-- The loss was costly for Kevin Sumlin’s team in more ways than one. Trevor Knight, who was enjoying a banner season after transferring over from Oklahoma, sustained a season-ending shoulder injury against the Bulldogs.

-- Ole Miss owns a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a road ‘dog on Freeze’s watch.

-- After getting out of RedStick unscathed with a 10-0 victory compliments of a spectacular defensive performance, top-ranked and undefeated Alabama moves on from LSU to a home game with Mississippi St. at noon Eastern on ESPN. Most spots have the Tide tagged as a 29-point home favorite.

-- Tennessee is a 14-point home favorite vs. Kentucky. If the Vols can win out (they won’t because I believe they’re going to lose to Vandy), they’ll win the SEC East if UF loses one of its two remaining league games (vs. USC and at LSU). Butch Jones has indicated that RB Alvin Kamara will return to the lineup vs. UK. Also, there’s a chance CB Cam Sutton may play for the first time since getting injured in a 28-19 home win over Ohio in Week 3. Malik Foreman remains a question mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Week 11 pointspread picks and prediction
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Give me one good reason why I shouldn’t bet on Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines in their matchup with Iowa this weekend.

No rush, I’ve got all the time in the world.

Perhaps the most buttoned-up program in college football outside of Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide, the Wolverines have been an absolute wrecking ball in Year 2 of the Harbaugh administration.

Through nine outings, Michigan is obliterating the opposition by an average of 37.3 points per game and now finds itself just 12 quarters - including one big showdown with Ohio State - away from a spot in the four-team playoff.

Those are preciously the results one should expect from a defensive unit that ranks tops in the country in yardage (246.0 yds/gm) and points (10.7 pts/gm) surrendered per game this season.

As for the Hawkeyes, well, what can you say? Iowa’s 2016 resume includes a loss to FCS North Dakota State (23-21) as a 14.5-point home favorite, a squeaker of a victory against a lousy 2-7 Rutgers squad (14-7), and back-to-back defeats at the hands of Wisconsin (17-9) and Penn State (41-14).

Further, the Hawkeyes are an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11 home games, 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a loss and 2-5 ATS over their last seven showdowns with Michigan.

But I’m still open to any and all reasons as to why I shouldn’t love a Michigan blowout on Saturday.

Pick: Michigan -21.5

Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels

When: Saturday, November 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Wyoming -7.5

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

We’ve been all over the Cowboys and vastly underrated head coach Craig Bohl this season and for good reason. After a 2-2 start to the 2016 campaign, Wyoming has ripped off five straight victories by an average of 12.8 points per game.

What’s even more impressive is that the Cowboys have covered the spread in each of those five aforementioned outings while beating the closing spread by an average of 17.2 points per game.

UNLV may have the luxury of an extra week of rest heading into this matchup, but the Rebels are coming off back-to-back losses to Colorado State and San Jose State, two showdowns in which UNLV was listed as a favorite. The Rebels are now 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS on the season and we don’t see much of a reason to believe that this will be the week in which the program gets back on track.

Be advised that Wyoming is 4-1 ATS over its last five games against UNLV, while the Rebels are 0-6 ATS over their last six showdowns against teams with a winning record and 3-9 ATS over their last 12 conference outings.

Pick: Wyoming -7.5

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers

When: Saturday, November 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Nebraska -7

Blink and you may have missed it, but thanks to four straight victories, Minnesota has very quietly compiled an impressive 7-2 record that has the Golden Gophers tied with both Wisconsin and Nebraska atop the Big Ten’s Western division at 4-2.

But here’s the kicker: the Golden Gophers are in the driver’s seat and control their own destiny heading into the program’s final three regular season battles of the 2016 campaign.

Nebraska, on the other hand, is reeling in a big-time way after suffering back-to-back defeats at Wisconsin (23-17) and at Ohio State (62-3) following a perfect 7-0 start to the season.

If the wheels falling off the bus at the worst possible time wasn’t enough to issue a “Sell Order” on the Cornhuskers, don’t forget that quarterback Tommy Armstrong exited last Saturday night’s blowout defeat at Ohio State on a stretcher. Armstrong is currently in the school’s concussion protocol and may be unable to go for this matchup with the Gophers.

Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS over its last six road dates and 21-5 ATS over its last 26 games played in the month of November, while Nebraska is 2-5 ATS over it last seven home games against teams with a winning road record.

Pick: Minnesota +7

California Golden Bears at Washington State Cougars

When: Saturday, November 12 at 10:30 p.m. ET
Total: 83

After hanging 614 yards and 69 points on Rich Rodriguez’s Arizona Wildcats last Saturday night, the red-hot Washington State Cougars - winners of seven straight - are no doubt foaming at the mouth over this weekend’s showdown with a California defense that has surrendered 51.7 points per game over its last four outings.

The Golden Bears’ defensive unit has been absolutely brutal in 2016, which is the primary reason why the Over has cashed in seven of Cal’s nine games this season. But Cal’s offense, led by transfer quarterback Davis Webb, has been no slouch when it comes to flying up and down the gridiron on a weekly basis.

The Bears are averaging 39.6 points per game on the season, but should experience an uptick in the scoring department Saturday night thanks to the return of wide receiver Chad Hansen, who has notched a ridiculous 64 receptions for 840 yards and nine scores in just seven contests this year.

These two teams have combined to average an insane 164 plays per game in 2016. To put that in perspective, last Saturday night’s SEC showdown between Alabama and LSU featured a total of 121 offensive snaps. More plays = more offense = more points.

To that simple equation, the Over is 5-1 in Washington State’s last six games overall and 10-4 in the Cougars’ last 14 home showdowns, while the Over is 5-1 in Cal’s last six road dates and 6-1 in the Bears’ last seven outings following an ATS loss.

Pick: Over 83

Last week: 4-0 ATS
Season: 25-15 ATS (62.5%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 11 college football games
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now:

UNLV (+7.5) vs. Wyoming

This line has dropped from +8 to +7.5, so play it now before it hits the key number of +7. Wyoming has taken advantage of a strong home field with altitude this season, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), however the Cowboys are just 2-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road this year. They have a weak defense that is permitting 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play away from home.

UNLV has been a better team at home this season, going 2-2 SU, compared to 1-4 SU on the road. The Runnin' Rebels have been a strong offensive team at home this year, averaging 40.2 points per game on 7.4 yards per play. They have out-rushed their opponents 296-133 rushing yards (6.6-3.5 yards per rush) on their home field.

Spread to wait on:

Indiana (+7) vs. Penn State

This line is currently +6.5 to +7 in most locations and might rise higher to +7.5 by this weekend. The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four games. However, the Nittany Lions are due for a letdown after big wins versus Ohio State and Iowa in their past three games. Penn State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season where they have allowed 38.3 points per game.

Indiana enters this game off back-to-back wins with solid offensive performances, scoring 75 points combined on 1,217 total yards. The Hoosiers have played better than their overall 27.1 points per game offensive number indicates as they have gained 6.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppl). Indiana has been particularly strong throwing the ball, averaging 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 7.1 ypp).

Total to watch:

California at Washington State (83.5)

California remains a horrible defensive team this season, going 7-2 to the Over, while allowing 44.4 points on 528 total yards per game (versus opponents that average just 34.1 ppg and 439 yards). Those numbers have been consistently bad in conference games as California has allowed 46.8 points and 540 yards per game. The Golden Bears have allowed 47, 49, 45, and 66 points in their past four games.

Washington State has a potent offense that is averaging 43.0 points on 502 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 32.3 ppg and 446 yards). The Cougars have been even stronger at home where they are 4-1 SU and averaging 49.0 points on 529 total yards per game. Washington State does have a decent defense this year which is allowing just 24.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 30.0 ppg and 6.2 yppl). The question is if the Cougars can slow down a strong California offense that is averaging 39.7 points on 517 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 29.0 ppg and 417 yards).

 

[DTomka21]

Rainman (twitter) has 2 hammer plays today. Kind of rare. Anyone have em? TIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAF action report: Compelling Pac-12 matchup highlights Week 11
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 11 of the college football season includes some significant line movements in games with already-huge pointspreads, but a big Pac-12 matchup is among the more compelling games this weekend. We talk about where the action is with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Nevada.

No. 20 Southern California Trojans at No. 4 Washington Huskies – Open: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -8

There’s hasn’t been a lot of line movement for this battle in Seattle, but there is plenty of betting interest. Southern Cal (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) has put a 1-3 SU start behind it by peeling off five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS), including a 45-20 rout of Oregon last week as a 17-point home chalk.

Washington (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) is right in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation and hopes to reaffirm its status in those talks. The Huskies are coming off a 66-27 whitewashing of California as a 19-point road favorite.

“I would imagine when push comes to shove, that’ll be up there. If not the most handle, it’ll be one of them with the biggest handle,” Bogdanovich said, while noting sharps haven’t really weighed in yet as the line has bounced between 8 and 8.5. “That’s just the masses. My gut tells me the sharps are waiting for this to go up. The sharps are looking to play USC.”

The Huskies have gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Trojans, including 4-1 ATS in the last five. Last year, Washington won 17-12 as a hefty 17-point road pup. Tonight’s contest kicks off at 7:30 Eastern.

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes – Open: +20; Move: +22

Bettors were jumping on Michigan at the futures book well before the season began, and they’ve stayed on Jim Harbaugh’s troops seemingly every week this season, even though the 9-0 Wolverines are just 5-4 ATS. That said, Michigan battered Maryland 59-3 last week as a massive 29.5-point home fave. Meanwhile, Iowa went to Penn State as a 6.5-point ‘dog and left as a 41-14 loser, falling to 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS.

“Michigan has been looking really good, and Iowa is coming off a thumping,” Bogdanovich said. “The masses are looking at Michigan. It’s definitely all public action for sure. If it keeps going up, the sharps might be back in. I think 24 would be a take.”

Considering the Wolverines’ middling ATS record, Bogdanovich said it’s interesting that bettors keep pushing up the pointspread, week after week.
“It does surprise me,” he said. “It’s conference football, these teams know each other, so it’s crazy to see such high numbers. But they’ve backed Michigan since Day 1 this season, and they’re gonna back them until the bitter end.”

This Big Ten contest kicks off at 8 p.m. Eastern.

Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels – Open: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8

This 3 p.m. Eastern matchup isn’t one you’d normally think of as key for the sportsbooks, but it certainly will be this week, at least at William Hill. Wyoming (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) has won five in a row and cashed in all five, including a 30-28 upset of then-unbeaten Boise State as a 14.5-point home pup two weeks ago. The Cowboys had no letdown last week, whipping Utah State 52-28 laying 4 points at home.

UNLV (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) is in the midst of another subpar year. Last week, as 3-point chalk at San Jose State, the Rebels lost 30-24.

“This game will be one of our bigger decisions. We’re gonna need UNLV huge,” Bogdanovich said. “Wyoming beat Boise State and Utah State on national TV. The public is gonna be betting Wyoming with both hands. It’s a huge public game.”

Baylor Bears at No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners – Open: -14.5; Move: -17.5

The Big 12 champion appears very unlikely to be part of the four-team CFP this season, but Oklahoma will try to keep rolling in the hopes that a lot of craziness occurs over the final few weeks. The Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) played the Thursday night game in Week 10, fending off Iowa State 34-24 while falling well short as a 21-point road favorite, but it marked their sixth consecutive SU win.

A month ago, Baylor was definitely in the CFP mix at 6-0 SU and heading into a bye week. Since coming back, the Bears are 0-2 SU and ATS, including a shocking 62-22 loss to Texas Christian giving 7 points at home last week. Now, Baylor isn’t even ranked for this noon Eastern contest.

“There’s a little bit of public action on Oklahoma, and it could be some sharp money as well,” Bogdanovich said. “Oklahoma is picking up steam, and Baylor just lost to a below-average TCU team, getting beat unmercifully on their home field.”

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen – Open: +2.5; Move: -2

Perhaps it’s because this is Veterans Day weekend, but Navy has certainly caught bettors’ interest. More likely, it’s because the Midshipmen (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 28-27 upset at Notre Dame as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

Tulsa (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) is looking good lately, too, winning its last three SU and its last four ATS. The Golden Hurricane ripped visiting East Carolina 45-24 laying 10 points last week.

“That was sharp money on Navy,” Bogdanovich said.

The line has been moving the Midshipmen’s way all week, going from +2.5 to +1.5 a few hours after opening on Monday, hitting -1.5 Thursday and -2 Friday for this noon Eastern kickoff.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins – Open: +28; Move: +29.5

Ohio State is certainly still in the CFP race, but knows it needs to rack up impressive victory margins en route to its home date with Michigan in two weeks. The Buckeyes (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) certainly took care of business last week, boatracing No. 10 Nebraska 62-3 as a 17-point home fave.

Maryland can relate to how Nebraska felt, as the Terrapins enter this 3:30 p.m. Eastern game off a 59-3 loss at Michigan catching 29.5 points.

“The Maryland quarterback (Perry Hills) is questionable, and Ohio State is coming off a monster game,” Bogdanovich said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that game gets to 30 or 31. The Buckeyes have to have style points. Urban Meyer doesn’t have any problem running it up.”

Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -27; Move: -25.5

Since losing to two of the nation’s best in back-to-back games – at Michigan and in overtime at home to Ohio State – Wisconsin has won three in a row SU. Last week, the Badgers topped Northwestern 21-7 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Illinois (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) actually enters this 3:30 p.m. Eastern matchup coming off an upset victory, having dumped rapidly declining Michigan State 31-27 getting 9.5 points at home. Bettors apparently either like that, or just think Wisconsin is not built to cover fat spreads.

“It’s probably sharp guys on Illinois,” Bogdanovich said. “Wisconsin is so vanilla on offense. They’re not really suited for laying high-20s pointspreads, so that must be where that movement’s coming from.”

Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:

• Florida opened as a 13.5-point home fave against South Carolina and was bet up to 14, but the Gators will apparently be without QB Luke Del Rio, prompting Gamecocks bettors to push this line down to 10.5.
• No. 2 Clemson has been bet up to a 20.5-point home chalk against Pittsburgh, after opening at 18.5.
• Central Florida has gone from its opener of -10.5 up to -12.5 against visiting Cincinnati.
• Sixth-ranked Louisville opened at a massive -32 against visiting Wake Forest, and that number was at 35 Friday afternoon.
• Tennessee went from -11.5 to -13.5 for hits home tilt against Kentucky.
• Notre Dame is up to -13.5 against visiting Army, after opening at -11.
• Louisiana Tech opened at -19.5 at home against Texas-San Antonio and jumped to -22.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Election can get you looking ahead, to college football matchups that is
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The American elections that took place Tuesday evening have many of us thinking about our respective futures.

Relax. I’m not about to go “all political” on you.

I’m simply referencing what took place on the political landscape this past week as a way of transitioning into what’s about to take place on the college football landscape. Our focus, and rightly so, is usually aimed at what’s scheduled to occur within the next two or three days.

But now is the time to start looking at the next 2-3 weeks.

On Wednesday, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas re-opened its Michigan-Ohio State line (Saturday, November 26) at Ohio State -4.5, which marks a stark departure from where it opened prior to the commencement of the 2016 season (Ohio State -6) and where it reached its highest point (Ohio State -10).

That’s not to imply that there is an edge to be found in the Michigan-Ohio State line at the current moment, but rather, to bring to our attention the manner in which college football coaches may approach the next game or two before the marquee rivalries or conference championships take place.

I spoke with Aaron Kessler on Thursday, who currently serves as the sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, and he raised an interesting point in regards to No. 2 Clemson’s Saturday showdown with Pittsburgh (Clemson -21). Essentially, Kessler noted that Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney, as well as other playoff-contending head coaches, may operate in a quicker-than-usual fashion when it comes to pulling their starting quarterbacks and other elite playmakers in an effort to avoid injury heading into the biggest and most impactful games of the season.

A smart move, no doubt, when it comes to planning for the future. But when it comes to covering massive point spreads, bettors should be acutely aware that “style points” no longer matter in regards to the top-4 teams in the nation.

Adjust accordingly, my friends.

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.

This week we speak with our good friend Aaron Kessler, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas. You can follow Aaron on twitter @aaronkessler.

Biggest adjustments made to your power rankings after Week 9: “Ohio State is back and reports of Louisville’s demise may have been exaggerated. Baylor, as I believed all along, is still not good. Neither is TCU. Oklahoma State, however, is a team to keep an eye on.”

Any significant action on your championship futures: “Nothing too noteworthy this week, as most positions are taken now. People are just looking to catch lightning in a bottle with a team that sneaks in.”

Week 10 sharp action: “Very few hands have been tipped so far this week, although the action we are taking on Illinois [+26.5 at Wisconsin] and Purdue [+14 vs. Northwestern] probably isn’t public money.”

Week 10 public action: “Well, Alabama is playing again this week. So that’s one. Clemson and Louisville are both huge public favorites as well. USC at Washington will likely feature the best two-way action of the week.”

Which teams do you currently feel are overvalued in the betting market: “I’m not sold on Auburn just yet, as I have big questions when it comes to the quarterback position. Perhaps Clemson laying big spreads with an early Deshaun Watson departure is imminent, so that’s worth keeping an eye on.”

Which teams do you currently feel are undervalued in the betting market: “Lots of wide-open teams getting big numbers against anyone but top-flight defensive units. That will likely include teams such as Texas Tech, California, Washington State and maybe even Texas and West Virginia, if they were catching enough points.”

Have you taken any substantial wagers on this weekend’s slate of games: “Nothing particularly noteworthy at the moment.”

TREND OF THE WEEK

In super sneaky Big Ten fashion, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have strung together four straight victories by an average of 14.7 points per game after suffering back-to-back defeats against Penn State and Iowa, respectively, in early October.

As a result, Minnesota is now a rock-solid 21-5 ATS over its last 26 games played in the month of November.

This will be a key trend to remember entering Saturday’s slate of action as the Golden Gophers travel to Nebraska (7:30 p.m. ET, Nebraska -7) to face a reeling Cornhuskers squad that has endured back-to-back losses (at Wisconsin, at Ohio State) after opening the season a perfect 7-0.

Take note that Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS over its last six road dates and 19-8-1 ATS over its last 28 conference showdowns.

BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK

Michigan Wolverines (-17.5 to -21.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes: No surprises here as you have a Michigan program on one side of the equation that ranks first in the country in both total defense (246.0 yds/gm) and scoring (10.7 pts/gm) taking on an Iowa squad that found itself on the wrong end of a 41-14 thrashing at Penn State last weekend. Take note that the Hawkeyes are just 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11 home games.

Oklahoma Sooners (-14 to -18) vs. Baylor Bears: Two teams headed in opposite directions here as Oklahoma has won six straight outings by an average of 17.0 points per game while Baylor quickly turned a 6-0 start into a 6-2 record following back-to-back losses suffered at the hands of Texas and TCU, respectively. Be advised that Baylor is 0-4 ATS over its last four road dates.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+14.5 to +11) at Florida Gators: After a 2-4 start to the season, South Carolina has ripped off three straight victories and still finds itself very much alive in the hunt for the SEC East crown. Florida, on the other hand, just got rocked at Arkansas last Saturday (31-10) and is just 2-6 ATS over its last eight home contests. Also worth mentioning is the fact that this will serve as South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp’s first showdown with his former employer since being fired by the Gators in 2014.

Marshall Thundering Herd (+13 to +9.5) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee signal-caller Brent Stockstill was lost for the season last weekend after suffering a broken right collarbone in the team’s 45-25 upset loss against UTSA (despite closing as 19-point favorites). In addition, Middle Tennessee is just 2-7-1 ATS over its last ten games following an ATS loss, while Marshall is 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight outings following an ATS loss.

Tennessee Volunteers (-11 to -14) vs. Kentucky Wildcats: This is one of the most lopsided divisional showdowns in college football as Tennessee is 30-1 SU and 23-8 ATS against Kentucky since 1985. The Vols are also 7-2 ATS over their last nine games against teams with a winning record while Kentucky is just 2-11 ATS over its last 13 games played in the month of November.


HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH

The rundown: Barring an injury to Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, this year’s Heisman Trophy race is pretty much a wrap. The sophomore signal-caller from Boynton Beach, Florida accounted for seven total touchdowns in last Saturday’s 52-7 whitewashing of Boston College, which marked the third time in nine games this season that Jackson has rolled up seven or more total scores in a single outing. Las Vegas responded to the scoring outburst by adjusting Jackson’s price from 1/3 to 1/30.

As a result of Jackson’s meteoric rise, major adjustments were made to several key players including Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers (8/1 to 12/1), Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett (10/1 to 25/1), Florida State running back Dalvin Cook (20/1 to 80/1), Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts (40/1 to 100/1) and LSU running back Leonard Fournette (100/1 to 500/1), to name a few.

Outside of Jackson, only two other contenders saw a boost to their Heisman Trophy odds, which included Washington quarterback Jake Browning (12/1 to 10/1) and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (80/1 to 30/1).

After rushing for a staggering 341 yards and three scores in a 45-37 win over Texas Tech last Saturday, Texas running back D’Onta Foreman was added to the Heisman Trophy odds board this week at a price of 40/1.

Those players who have been removed from contention include Mississippi quarterback Chad Kelly, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd and Oregon quarterback Dakota Prukop.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 1/30 (100/1)
Jake Browning, QB, Washington: 10/1 (80/1)
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 12/1 (5/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 12/1 (50/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 25/1 (12/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 30/1 (80/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 30/1 (40/1)
D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texas: 40/1 (40/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 80/1 (10/1)
Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State: 100/1 (100/1)
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama: 100/1 (25/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 100/1 (10/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 200/1 (7/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 200/1 (30/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 200/1 (50/1)
Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina: 200/1 (80/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 200/1 (50/1)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: 300/1 (20/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 500/1 (30/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 500/1 (20/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 500/1 (6/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 500/1 (50/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 500/1 (50/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 500/1 (80/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 500/1 (80/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 1000/1 (100/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 1000/1 (30/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 1000/1 (30/1)
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor: 1000/1 (12/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 1000/1 (100/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 1000/1 (20/1)
Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson: 1000/1 (100/1)
Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan: 1000/1 (300/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 1000/1 (40/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 9999/1 (25/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 9999/1 (20/1)
C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa: 9999/1 (300/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 9999/1 (100/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 9999/1 (12/1)
Kenny Hill, QB, TCU: 9999/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 9999/1 (100/1)

Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Opening odds listed in parenthesis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions (7-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (5-4)

Date: November 12, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

After a rocky 2-2 start to the season that included road losses at Pittsburgh and Michigan, Penn State coach James Franklin was rumored to be on the hot seat and even garnered the dreaded vote of confidence from athletic director Sandy Barbour.

Five games later -- all wins, including a memorable 24-21 upset of then No. 2-ranked Ohio State -- and Franklin is now being mentioned as a national coach of the year candidate while the No. 10 Nittany Lions (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) are in the hunt for a major bowl game as they begin a two-game road trip at Indiana (5-4, 3-3) on Saturday afternoon (noon ET, ABC/ESPN2).

A win over the Hoosiers and Penn State, which closes conference play with games at Rutgers (2-7, 0-6) and at home against Michigan State (2-7, 0-6), could end the regular season with 10 wins.

Penn State comes in off an impressive 41-14 win over Iowa and currently sits second in the Big Ten's East Division with a 5-1 record.

"I'm really proud of how our team is playing," Franklin said. "The confidence that they're building and really playing well in all three phases."

Penn State has eclipsed 500 yards of total offense in three of its last four games. A victory formation kneel-down reduced its total to 599 against an Iowa defense some thought could slow the Nittany Lions.

That wasn't the case and Penn State players are confident no team can stop them.

"Our design is always to take what they give us so that's part of it, but through our running game we were confident what we could do running the ball," quarterback Trace McSorley said. "We were able to find a couple things that we were able to get good chunk plays, get five, six yards a pop every time. So we were able to kind of go back to those and we knew we needed to get into manageable third downs or to cut the chains in half.

"I think we did a really good job with that -- utilizing those with our (run-pass options) and our play-action pass game, everything really mented each other (against Iowa)."

Penn State's defense has bounced back nicely after early-season thrashings by Pittsburgh and Michigan. Regularly rotating eight defensive linemen, boosted by the return of starting linebackers Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda and backed by a playmaking, veteran secondary, the Nittany Lions are plus-6 in turnover margin during their winning streak.

Despite the impressive turnaround, don't look for the Nittany Lions to head into Saturday's contest cocky and overconfident.

"We understand that as fast as we are able to climb in the rankings, it could be taken away just as fast," McSorley said. "So we have to come to work every single day and prepare like we're not ranked anywhere in the Top 25, just prepare like a hard-nosed blue collar team that we're trying to be."

Indiana (5-4, 3-3), which comes in off back-to-back wins over Maryland and Rutgers, needs to win one of its final three games against the Nittany Lions, No. 2 Michigan and rival Purdue to earn a second straight bowl bid. The Hoosiers overcame four turnovers and two blocked kicks to squeak past Rutgers 33-27 last Saturday.

"We're not going to win with that type of play this week or any week moving forward," Indiana coach Kevin Wilson said. "We've got a lot to clean up. Still good to clean up after a win, but a lot of things to address. We're on to what is a really good team."

Indiana has gained 1,217 yards offensively in the last two games, which probably has something to do with the return of guard Dan Feeney, ranked as the No. 1 guard prospect and a likely first-round pick by NFLDraftScout.com. Feeney was credited with six knockdowns.

Quarterback Richard Lagow shrugged off his 12th and 13th interceptions in the last seven games to throw for a season-high 394 yards against Rutgers on 28-of-40 accuracy. Lagow connected on 14 of his first 16 attempts while averaging just over 14 yards per completion. But he will have to eliminate the mistakes and make quick decisions against a Penn State defense that has 18 sacks over the last three games for Indiana to pull the upset Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5) at Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)

Date: November 12, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Mississippi State pulled off one of the stunners of last weekend by upsetting then-No. 4 Texas A&M 35-28.

But that may have served as a wake-up call for Alabama, which hosts the Bulldogs at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., at noon ET Saturday with ESPN cameras looking on.

At the very least, it gained the unranked Bulldogs (4-5, 2-3 SEC) some respect from the No. 1 Crimson Tide (9-0, 6-0 SEC).

"I think it does, definitely," Tide cornerback Marlon Humphrey said. "I know Mississippi State's had a lot of close games that they've lost.

"To beat Texas A&M, that must mean they're doing something right. I think that actually might help our mindset, just to know that they're a pretty good team. They've got as many scholarships as we have, so they've got good players, too. You just can't take anybody lightly."

In nearly every major statistical category, Mississippi State ranks sixth or lower in the SEC. But coach Dan Mullen's Bulldogs do field the No. 4 rushing offense in the league with an average of nearly 227 yards per game and 5.4 per carry.

Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald ran for 182 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Aggies, and sophomore running back Aeris Williams rushed for a career-high 140 yards, his first career game in triple digits.

"Dan has done a great job there for a lot of years," Alabama coach Nick Saban

said. "We've always had some really difficult games, and that will be our expectation in this game."

Just for the record, 'Bama has won the last eight games in the series, with seven of the wins by double digits. The lone exception was two years ago in Tuscaloosa when the Tide beat the Bulldogs 25-20.

Alabama is the only SEC team Mullen has never beaten during his eight years with the Bulldogs, who have failed to score a touchdown during the first three quarters in their last three trips to Tuscaloosa.

"They're hard to simulate in practice because they've got guys on their bench that nobody else even has on their roster," Mullen said. "You can't simulate the talent that they're putting out there on the field at practice."

Both teams have new starters at quarterback this season.

Freshman Jalen Hurts took over in the second game of the season for Alabama and has passed for just over 187 yards a game and rushed for nearly 70. He scored the game's only touchdown in last week's 10-0 Tide win at LSU on a 21-yard scramble.

For Mississippi State, sophomore Fitzgerald has taken over for Dak Prescott (now starting for the Dallas Cowboys) and, just like his predecessor, is leading his team in rushing. Fitzgerald has rushed for an average of over 93 yards per game and completed passes at a 56.3 percent clip for another 189 yards per game.

"It's pretty obvious with their win over Texas A&M how good they are playing right now," Saban said. "Their quarterback has played really well for them all year. He's kind of the center of what they do in terms of how much he runs the ball and his effectiveness as a runner, as well as being a very effective passer."

The Bulldogs also have the SEC's leader in touchdown receptions in wide receiver Fred Ross, who has nine among his 54 catches for 641 yards.

"Fred Ross is a very good receiver and an outside threat that can create explosive plays for them," Saban said.

Alabama also has outstanding receivers in Calvin Ridley, who has 46 receptions for 520 yards, and ArDarius Stewart, who has 31 for 527. Together they have nine touchdown receptions. Oh, and running backs Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs and Bo Scarbrough have combined to rush for 1,486 yards, an average of 165 a game.

"This is a big week, a huge challenge for our guys," Mullen said. "They have the No. 1 offense and defense in the SEC. There are not a lot of weaknesses on their roster. They have guys that are sitting on the bench that would start for most teams in the country.

"You have to come out and play a very clean game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1) at Texas Longhorns (5-4)

Date: November 12, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Three wins in the past four weeks have allowed Texas to finally find its footing and claw back to within one victory of bowl eligibility while cooling the hot seat for beleaguered coach Charlie Strong, at least for the time being.

Still, the Longhorns will need to play their best game of the season against No. 16 West Virginia on Saturday at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, to keep the hard-fought momentum going and to augment their recent string of success against highly ranked teams. Texas has won four straight games against Associated Press Top-12 ranked teams, the second longest streak in the nation behind top-ranked Alabama.

West Virginia (7-1, 4-1 in Big 12) stands in the way of the Longhorns' attempt to add to that streak and is likely the most balanced team that Texas has faced in the past two seasons.

Dual-threat quarterback Skyler Howard directs a West Virginia attack that's ranked 10th in the nation (510.8 yards per game) in total offense.

"West Virginia is a great team and they are very balanced," Strong said Monday during his regular media availability. "Howard does a great job of taking care of the ball and they don't turn it over very much as a team. I think we will play well because the team we are playing will have our players' attention and we play good at home. We've won two in a row -- now let's go get this one."

The Mountaineers are a sloppy, three-turnover, 37-20 loss on the road against No. 17 Oklahoma State on Oct. 29 from being undefeated. Those turnovers led to 17 points, a killer for a team that had been without a fumble or an interception in the two games prior to the defeat by the Cowboys.

West Virginia lost a fumble last week in a 48-21 blowout victory over hapless Kansas but looks to be back in the groove.

"The Oklahoma State game was decided in a few big plays," Howard said. "I feel like we really didn't lose anything, and we didn't need to gain anything back. We are just playing ball, worrying about us, worrying about West Virginia. We approach this game like every other one -- we are going to take what they give us and play what we see."

Texas (5-4, 3-3 in Big 12) continues to improve after a stumbling start that saw it lose at California, at Oklahoma State, in Dallas against Oklahoma and at Kansas State. The Longhorns have dominated their four games at home, and were perhaps their most impressive in their 35-34 win against No. 8 Baylor on Oct. 29.

West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen recognizes the level of talent the Longhorns will bring to the field on Saturday.

"The thing that strikes me with this group is that they are incredibly competitive, just a very physical team," Holgorsen said. "If the ball bounces a little bit different for Texas, you're sitting here looking at an 8-1 football team, and that's how we have to approach it.

"Texas is very well coached, and their kids are playing very hard and are continuously getting better and better and better," Holgorsen added. "It will be as big a challenge as we've seen all year with their athleticism, their size, their physicality and the different looks that they'll give us."

Stopping the Longhorns begins with slowing down running back D'Onta Foreman, who -- at 249 pounds -- continuously ran away from would-tacklers in Texas' 45-37 win at Texas Tech last week.

Foreman, who had 341 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech, was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week on Monday for the second straight week. He is the first Longhorns player to rack up 300-plus yards on the ground in one game since Ricky Williams amassed 350 yards against Iowa State in his Heisman Trophy season in 1998.

Foreman leads the nation in yards per game (180.8) and is second in total rushing yards (1,446).

"Man, he's the real deal," Texas wide receiver Jake Oliver said about Foreman. "The stuff in the game doesn't even compare to what he does in practice. He's truly amazing every single day. As receivers, we don't just focus on catching the ball out there. We know he's going to bust big runs multiple times per game. Our job is to block on the perimeter for him and help on those big plays."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Baylor Bears (6-2) at Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

Date: November 12, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Oklahoma, which still has slim hopes of cracking the four-team College Football Playoff, will try for its 14th straight Big 12 Conference win when it hosts Baylor on Saturday afternoon.

The 11th-ranked Sooners (7-2, 6-0 Big 12) were pretty much written out of the national championship picture when they lost two of their first three games to Houston (33-23) and Ohio State (45-24). But Oklahoma has won six in a row since that home loss to the Buckeyes and knows a strong finish with victories over the Bears, West Virginia and Bedlam rival Oklahoma State could put it back into contention for a CFP berth.

A year ago, Oklahoma ended the season with impressive wins over Baylor (44-34), TCU (30-29) and Oklahoma State (58-23) to garner a CFP Playoff Semifinal berth where it lost to Clemson 37-17.

"I guess maybe the finish last year (is) really positive," Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said. "But we're a new team. I know they'll have the confidence to do it regardless. But we've got to focus on not last year, (but) the work we have to do to be our best this week and keep moving forward from it. So that's all we'll talk about and look to do."

It wasn't too long ago that Baylor (6-2, 3-2) was entertaining hopes of a Big 12 crown and a possible CFP berth. But that was before back-to-back losses at Texas (35-34) and last week at home to TCU (62-22).

The loss to the Horned Frogs was particularly disconcerting for Baylor fans. The Bears fell behind 38-14 at halftime and allowed 688 yards in total offense, including 431 yards rushing. If that wasn't ugly enough, running back Shock Linwood, who became Baylor's career rushing leader earlier this year, got into an altercation with a graduate assistant on the sidelines during the loss and has been suspended for Saturday's contest by acting head coach Jim Grobe.

"I think there are some attitude issues right now," Grobe said. "It's not anything major. He's just not been himself. He's not really been as focused as I think he needs to be, and he's in a tough situation."

Linwood, who has rotated with Terence Williams and JaMycal Hasty for the lead running back role, has rushed for 594 yards through eight games this season to give him 4,056 yards in four seasons. He had just 29 yards on six carries in the TCU loss.

Oklahoma, which turned to fullback Dimitri Flowers (233 all-purpose yards) in its 34-24 win at Iowa State last Thursday, is expected to have its two top running backs back for this one. Joe Mixon (813 yards, 5 TDs) is expected back after a one-game suspension against Iowa State for reportedly tearing up a parking ticket and throwing it at an attendant, while Samaje Perine (475 yards, 6 TDs), who has missed the past three games after pulling a muscle against Kansas State, will practice this week and will play if all goes well. That's bad news for a Baylor defense that is allowing an average of 344 yards rushing over the last two games.

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield continued his hot streak last week against Iowa State and the Sooners' passing offense is eighth nationally with an average 342.3 yards per game. A lot of that was produced by wide receiver Dede Westbrook, who has been on a tear (1,012 yards and 12 touchdowns) during conference play.

Baylor averages a Big 12-best 278.4 yards rushing per game and will be going against an Oklahoma defense that allows just 123.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 25th in the country. The Sooners have generally struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks, and the Bears' Seth Russell has rushed for 436 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season.

Russell hasn't been the prolific passer Baylor fans were hoping to see this season, completing just 55.5 percent of his passes for 1,978 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. But the Bears do have a pair of dangerous receivers in KD Cannon and Ishmael Zamora.

Zamora has 393 yards receiving and five touchdowns in five games after missing the first three games due to suspension, while Cannon has 40 receptions for 560 yards and six touchdowns. They'll be going up against an Oklahoma defense that ranks just 122nd nationally in passing yards allowed per game (297.7).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers (5-4) at Clemson Tigers (9-0)

Date: November 12, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

With all the attention given to Clemson's offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson, it may be easy to overlook the contributions of the Tigers' defense.

But the play on that side of the ball could be a key factor as the second-ranked Tigers (9-0, 6-0 ACC) go into the season's stretch run that starts with a visit from unranked Pittsburgh (5-4, 2-3) Saturday. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium in Clemson is at 3:30 p.m. ET with the telecast split between ABC and ESPN2.

Clemson posted 565 yards in a 54-0 demolition of Syracuse last week, but the real story may have been the defense's second shutout of the season and the fifth since Brent Venables was named defensive coordinator in 2012.

The Tigers held high-scoring Syracuse to 277 yards -- 208 below its season average -- and intercepted three passes, returning one 64 yards for a touchdown.

"It was a fun tape to study and grade," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. "It's pretty special when you can play a clean game like that and dominate like that. Shutouts are hard to come by, so I'm really proud of those guys."

It's a remarkable surge for a unit that lost the bulk of its 2015 talent to the NFL and loomed as the team's biggest question mark in the preseason. But Venables has plugged the holes and molded a defense that ranks 12th nationally and appears to be getting better every week.

Linebacker Ben Boulware is its heart and soul. An emotional leader, he plays hard from snap to whistle and is tied for the team lead in tackles with 74 stops despite missing one game with injury. He had seven tackles last week against Syracuse.

The easy victory over the Orange was a welcome change of pace for Clemson, which had won five of its first eight games by a touchdown or less.

"It was nice -- these last few games we've been holding onto our hats in the fourth quarter," Swinney said.

The visiting Panthers also have experienced their share of close games, but generally have come out on the losing end. Before last week's 51-28 thumping by Miami, they had lost by seven points to Oklahoma State, by one to North Carolina, and by three to Virginia Tech. They do have three-point wins over Penn State and Georgia Tech.

They had considerable success running the football early on, but struggled on the ground at Miami, finishing with just 130 yards. They went into the game averaging 232 yards rushing. Running back James Conner, their leading rusher for the season, ended up with just 40 yards on 12 runs.

Quarterback Nathan Peterman passed for 287 yards, but he completed only 17 of his 35 pass attempts and had a critical interception in the end zone in the third quarter with the Panthers trailing by just 13 points. The Panthers also lost a critical fumble deep in their own territory that led to a Miami touchdown.

The Panthers had problems on the other side of the ball as well, getting to Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya for only one sack, that in the fourth quarter. They came into the game with 28 sacks on the year.

Now the Panthers face Clemson's Watson, who finished third in Heisman balloting a year ago.

"He's special, obviously," Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said. "I don't know if he's still up for the Heisman or how politics go there, but he's a great football player. They are undefeated. He leads their offense.

"Deshaun is not only an excellent thrower, but he's got a strong arm and throws darts. But he's got the run threat, too. Kaaya really didn't, even though he scrambled on some third-down passes to gain yards last week.

"This guy is a threat on every down to beat you with his arm and beat with you his feet. That's going to change some things for you on defense."

The Panthers need one more victory to reach bowl eligibility for a ninth consecutive season. The Tigers are looking to clinch the Atlantic Division's berth in the ACC title game.

"As we get into November," Swinney said, "we're certainly headed in the right direction."