Saturday 10/8/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) at Texas A&M Aggies (5-0)

Date: October 08, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is staying mum when it comes to updating the status of injured Aggies defensive end Myles Garrett, receivers Speedy Noil and Ricky Seals-Jones and offensive lineman Jermaine Eluemunor.

All four missed a win over South Carolina last week that leaves the eighth-ranked Aggies 5-0 overall and 3-0 in the Southeastern Conference. Texas A&M plays host to ninth-ranked Tennessee (5-0, 2-0) in a nationally telecast (CBS) game at 3:30 p.m. EDT Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.

Sumlin didn't hold back when it came to praising the Vols, who scored on a Hail Mary as time ran out last week to get by Georgia 34-31 just a week after rallying from an 18-point deficit to whip Florida 38-28.

The Vols have trailed in four of their first five games and needed overtime to get by Appalachian State in their opener.

"This is a team that on paper if you don't watch it you'll say they've gotten lucky," Sumlin said of the Vols. "They haven't gotten lucky. They have a veteran quarterback (senior Joshua Dobbs) that is No. 1 in this league in points responsible for, whether he's throwing it, whether he's running it, whatever he's doing, he's the No. 1 guy creating those points in this league.

"That No. 1 gives you a chance to win these types of games. He's been through it before."

Dobbs, Sumlin continued, has played in a number of different stadiums and before big crowds, including before a college-football-record crowd of 156,990 for the Battle of Bristol against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Basically he has been through about all you can expect, plus he has quarterbacked the Vols to 11 consecutive victories, their longest winning streak since Tennessee won 14 in a row by taking the opener in 1999 after a 13-0 season in 1998.

Dobbs has rushed for 267 yards and five touchdowns and passed for 13 touchdowns, the last a launch of a 43-yard pass to the end zone to Jauan Jennings as time ran out at Georgia.

"So he's going to come in here and he's seen all this," Sumlin said. "Because of that, that creates confidence in a football team has a really good defense with high-level athletes with a lot of speed. They're one of the top special teams teams in this league. Great kickoff returns. Great speed across the field.

"When you have a team like that, you're explosive. When you combine that with a quarterback who's been there and done that and seen that, you're a confident unit.

"So we have a huge challenge this weekend."

Tennessee coach Butch Jones can make the same claim about the challenge of facing Texas A&M.

The Aggies survived an overtime scare from UCLA in the season opener but have rolled to double-digit victories since. Even without the four injured starters, they had things under control in beating South Carolina 24-13 last week.

Quarterback Trevor Knight, the Oklahoma transfer, hasn't been the most accurate of passers (54.1 percent), but he still has been a catalyst for an offense that is spewing out 521 yards rushing and passing a game.

Knight is the second-leading rusher on the team with 392 yards behind the 487 of freshman running back Trayveon Williams. Knight has scored six rushing touchdowns, the most on the team, to go with his seven touchdown passes.

"I think Trevor Knight has really changed their offense," Jones said. "He's managing their offense. He can hurt you with his arm. He can hurt you with his legs.

"They're just a complete football team."

The Aggies will be going for their first 6-0 start since the 1994 team won its first seven games before tying SMU.

This is the third consecutive season Texas A&M has started on a five-game winning streak, and the losses in October to end that success has been the subject of some talk in Aggieland. Sumlin dismissed the notion that a similar result would have any particular significance.

"If we lose this week, it's not indicative of anything," Sumlin said. "Our season's not over. We're playing good football. This team has done a great job of focusing on the little things from day to day. We've gotten great leadership from our coaching staff, assistant coaches, and internally from our team."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) at Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1)

Date: October 08, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

All offseason, this has been the four-game stretch circled for No. 1 Alabama as the treacherous portion of a road back to the College Football Playoff for the defending champion Crimson Tide.

Saturday begins a five-week stretch in which undefeated Alabama plays at Arkansas, at Tennessee, hosts Texas A&M, and plays at LSU after the bye week.

The Crimson Tide (5-0, 2-0) starts things off with a trip to Arkansas for a date with the 16th-ranked Razorbacks (4-1, 0-1) at 7 p.m. ET Saturday at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville (ESPN).

Alabama has owned this rivalry during coach Nick Saban's tenure, but it hasn't always been easy in the games played in Fayetteville.

Though the Tide coasted past the Razorbacks 52-0 in 2012, the 2010 game was decided by only four points, 24-20, and two years ago it came down to just one point with the Tide escaping 14-13.

This year the Razorbacks look to be one of the few teams that can compete with Alabama physically.

"They got a big offensive line," Tide linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton said. "It's going to be a good, hard-fought game, so we got to eat our Wheaties this weekend. Be ready to play some physical football."

Saban is stressing the threat Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen poses for his defense. In his first year as a starter, Allen has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for over 246 yards a game with just two interceptions in 121 attempts against 12 touchdown tosses.

"Their quarterback is playing great for them" Saban said. "They are very well coached. They have some very good skill players, good wide receivers' and good running backs."

Rawleigh Williams (111.8 yards a game rushing) and Devwah Whaley (6.7 per carry) give the Hogs a one-two punch at running back, and veteran wide receiver Keon Hatcher is averaging over 20 yards a catch.

Wide receiver Jared Cornelius has four touchdown catches, wide receiver Drew Morgan has 28 receptions, and tight end Jeremy Sprinkle has 15 catches and could become a key outlet against Alabama.

One big key for Arkansas will be protecting Allen. Bama has 17 sacks in five games with defensive end Jonathan Allen leading with 4.0 and linebacker Ryan Anderson right behind with 3.5 for the season. Allen took a lot of hits in Arkansas' loss to Texas A&M as the Aggies outscored the Hogs 28-7 in the second half of their 45-24 win.

Defensively, the Razorbacks have to avoid giving up the big play, a problem season long. Texas A&M was able to score quickly in the second half two weeks ago, and though Alcorn State couldn't generate points the Braves did manage to pile up yardage in chunks.

That will not be easy to do with the Tide going to a spread offense with freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts running the show. Hurts is actually second on the team in rushing with 276 yards to the 356 of running back Damien Harris and 250 of running back Joshua Jacobs.

"He can hurt you," Bielema somewhat sheepishly said of Hurts. "I'm sure that's not the first pun thrown out at you."

But it's not just his rushing ability that makes the Tide so explosive. Hurts has completed 62.2 percent of his passes with only one interception in 135 attempts against seven touchdowns.

"I think they're using his strengths as good as anybody I've witnessed this year on film," Bielema said. "He's a very talented player and being used in the right way. And he's got some good players around him."

One of those is wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who has 35 receptions for 398 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end O.J. Howard (12 catches, 165 yards) is one of the nation's best.

All that said, one thing that Bielema doesn't want his players to do is to look at the Tide as a group of Supermen.

"Obviously, being Alabama and the team that they are there's going to be a certain focus on them," he said. "But I did urge those guys -- I said it Saturday in the postgame locker room and said it to them again yesterday -- I think probably the thing I've learned most from being in these games -- and it took me a while in my previous job, too -- when you're going up against a team of their caliber you really don't need an extra ordinary out-of-body experience. Just do your job."

There is such a thing as being too hyped up.

"The more you press," Bielema said, "the more you try making something more than it needs to be, the more you end up misfiring."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colorado Buffaloes (4-1) at USC Trojans (2-3)

Date: October 08, 2016 4:00 PM EDT

Colorado is ranked for the first time in more than a decade. But that doesn't mean the Buffaloes still aren't underdogs.

Colorado (4-1 overall, 2-0 Pac-12) will put its first ranking since 2005 on the line when it travels to USC (2-3, 1-2) Saturday for a 4 p.m. ET kickoff from the Los Angeles Coliseum.

"We've got to keep playing games," Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre said.

"Every team that's left to play can beat us, and we can beat every team left. We have to come and play Colorado football, that's what I tell them all the time. Play Colorado football; that means take care of yourself. Then, you go out there and play and see what happens."

The matchup is between the most surprising team in the league against probably its most disappointing. The Trojans stumbled out of the game in Clay Helton's first full season as head coach, losing 52-6 to Alabama in Arlington, Texas, and then later dropping games to Stanford (27-10) and Utah (31-27).

But all is not lost.

The Trojans have a chance to get right back into the Pac-12 South race by beating front-running Colorado. USC is hoping last week's 41-20 home win over Arizona State was a turning point.

"It could be," said cornerback Adoree' Jackson. "That's one of those things where you never know what may happen. But it could be a turning point and we just want to keep this momentum going and keep it going from there."

Colorado has a quarterback controversy after Steven Montez filled in well during the past two weeks for injured senior Sefo Liufau. The redshirt freshman threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns in a 47-6 win over Oregon State last Saturday after throwing for 333 yards and three scores in a win over Oregon.

Montez also rushed for 163 yards and two scores in those two games.

MacIntyre was asked Monday who would start against the Trojans.

"We'll see how this week goes," he said.

Montez said he found out in the middle of last week that Liufau would not be ready to play against the Beavers, and he might not find out if he is starting against USC until Saturday.

USC has moved past its quarterback controversy. Helton inserted redshirt freshman Sam Darnold into the starting lineup after three games, replacing junior Max Browne.

Darnold threw for 352 yards last week in his second career start, and his ability to run is also forcing defenses to account for him, helping to free up the rest of the Trojans' ample playmakers, such as All-American wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. He is starting to assert himself after a slow start through three games.

Smith-Schuster caught three touchdown passes last week against Arizona State, and he has 15 catches in the past two games for 221 yards.

Helton was asked to compare Darnold to recent USC quarterbacks Matt Barkley and Cody Kessler.

"He can be as good or better than those two guys," Helton said. "He's got several attributes that are hard to defend. He's a dangerous weapon."

Perhaps there is a caveat to Darnold's performance last week because the Sun Devils entered the game with the worst pass defense in the country. Colorado is at the opposite end of the spectrum, ranked ninth in passing yards allowed at only 150.4 per game.

Three of Colorado's opponents have failed to pass for more than 100 yards.

"I think you can see it in our play and the way we talk to people and the way we feel, we carry ourselves differently," said safety Ryan Moeller said. "I wouldn't say that any one of us is getting a big head by any means. I think everyone is very level headed and ready to take it to the next step."

The Buffaloes also have a strong running attack, rushing for at least 247 yards in each victory. But they managed only 64 in their toughest game -- a loss to Michigan, when Liufau went out with his injury. USC is 79th nationally in rush defense, allowing 170.8 yards per game.

Colorado went 2-25 in the Pac-12 during MacIntyre's first three seasons. The Buffs won a total of five league games in their first five seasons in the league after jumping from the Big 12.

"The wins give us a lot of confidence," safety Tedric Thompson said. "Being able to get these wins right now is good, but we have to keep on the road. We can't get too high or too low on ourselves."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Washington Huskies (5-0) at Oregon Ducks (2-3)

Date: October 08, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Washington got everyone's attention last week with a lopsided win over then-No. 7 Stanford.

The fifth-ranked Huskies were able to clear that very sizable hurdle in the Pac-12 North, but now comes more tall timber. Yes, Oregon is struggling, but Washington has lost 12 consecutive games in this Northwest rivalry -- and only one of those defeats was closer than 17 points.

That came last season when Oregon won 26-20 in Seattle.

"It is on," Washington defensive end Joe Mathis said of facing Oregon. "We have to get some work in and get ready."

The programs are headed in very opposite directions as they prepare to meet in Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Huskies (5-0 overall, 2-0 Pac-12) are coming off a 44-6 victory over Stanford and are ranked in the top 10 for the fifth consecutive week, their longest such stretch since a nine-week stint during the 2000 season. The Ducks (2-3, 0-2) have lost three consecutive games and will be trying to avoid their first four-game losing streak since the end of the 2006 season.

Washington's defense, filled with projected future pros such as safety Budda Baker, cornerback Sidney Jones and linebacker Azeem Victor, leads the Pac-12 by allowing 12.8 points per game. The Huskies are second in total defense, yielding 299.2 yards per game.

Washington managed to subdue Heisman Trophy candidate Christian McCaffrey last week, holding him to only 47 yards on 12 carries. Stanford managed only 29 yards on 30 carries, including eight sacks. Outside linebacker Psalm Wooching had three sacks and forced a fumble, earning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Meanwhile, Washington's offensive line didn't allow a sack to Stanford.

"When those stats are like that, they can kind of be a little misleading in terms of sometimes things just start to happen and then they snowball and you get a couple extra ones and stuff," said Washington third-year coach Chris Petersen.

"But we were really pleased with how hard and how effective our lines played. They protected Jake (Browning) well and we were able to run the ball. On the other side, we really squeezed the pocket. I think anytime your lines play at a really high level, you've got a good chance to win."

Browning, a sophomore, ranks second nationally in passing efficiency with a rating of 196.3. Against Stanford last week, he completed 15 of 21 pass attempts for 210 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

He will be taking aim at a struggling Oregon defense. The Ducks allowed an average of 43 points in losses to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State. The Cougars had 651 yards of total offense in a 51-33 win over the Ducks on Saturday.

"I think everybody has to dig it out and compete at the end of the day," said Oregon junior linebacker A.J. Hotchkins.

"Getting 50 put up on us is not a good thing, but we can't put that on anyone but ourselves. At the end of the day, we need to compete every play, not just when you want to or just in the second or third quarter. It has to be the whole game."

Oregon's run defense continues to get worse. In the past three weeks, Nebraska ran for 228 yards, Colorado had 260 on the ground and WSU finished at 280, its most in a conference game since 2005.

"You look them in the eye to make sure we still have their hearts and minds, which we do and we will," said Oregon coach Mark Helfrich. "Then you move forward."

The Ducks have scored at least 32 points in every game this season, so the offense should provide a challenge for the Husky defense.

Running back Royce Freeman had 138 yards and three touchdowns against Washington State to pass Kenjon Barner and move into second place in school history with 3,664 rushing yards. Freeman has rushed for 307 yards in two previous meetings with Washington.

"He's as good as there is in the country, without question," Petersen said. "He backs it up every week."

Oregon senior quarterback Dakota Prukop threw for just 132 yards against the Cougars and was intercepted once. Freshman Justin Herbert came in and threw for 70 yards in the fourth quarter. Helfrich said Monday that Prukop would remain his starter for this week's big game, although he wasn't as committed to that on Tuesday.

"I mean, we're still competing," Helfrich was quoted as saying by The Oregonian. "We're still competing."

Multiple media outlets reported that Herbert will be the starter against the Huskies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Michigan Wolverines (5-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-3)

Date: October 08, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

The Michigan offense is receiving a lot of credit for a terrific 5-0 start in which the No. 4 Wolverines won by an average of 32 points per game.

The defense is certainly doing its part, too.

Michigan ranks fifth in total defense (247.6 yards per game) and sixth in scoring defense (12.4 points per game) as it takes to the road for the first time this season when it faces Rutgers on Saturday at Piscataway, N.J. (7 p.m. EDT, ESPN2).

The Wolverines (2-0 Big Ten) are fresh off a 14-7 victory over Wisconsin last Saturday in a top-10 showdown. And it was the Michigan defense that led the way by allowing a season-low 159 yards and recording three interceptions -- two by senior cornerback Channing Stribling and the game-clinching pick by senior All-America cornerback Jourdan Lewis.

"It was a game ball for Don Brown," Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said of his defensive coordinator. "I was very impressed with our defense, and our defensive coaches and the character of our defensive players and their talent -- A-plus-plus."

The Wisconsin game marked the second time the Wolverines held an opponent below 100 passing yards this season. And the play on third downs has had been incredible, as Michigan leads the nation in opponents' third-down conversion rate at 15.4 percent.

Opponents have converted just 10 of 65 third downs.

Making the season-long defensive performance even better is the fact that Lewis is now fully healthy after missing the first three games with three different injuries. He announced his presence in a loud manner by making an acrobatic, one-handed interception that sealed the victory over Wisconsin.

Lewis sees the success of the defense as something that is built on teamwork all the way through the unit.

"I know the D-line believes in us," Lewis said. "The linebackers believe in us, and I know that we believe in those guys. That's that trust that's been built over the years, and it's understanding that those guys are going to get their jobs done."

The Wolverines figure to have an easy time with Rutgers (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) based on the Scarlet Knights' troubles last Saturday in a 58-0 loss to No. 2 Ohio State.

Rutgers was outgained 669-116 by the Buckeyes and completed just three passes. Ohio State had a 32-9 edge in first downs while thoroughly dominating the Scarlet Knights.

The poor performance dropped junior quarterback Chris Laviano's completion percentage to 49.6 percent. Laviano has passed for 680 yards and five touchdowns against two interceptions while receiving hefty criticism from the team's fan base.

"Everybody talks about a football teams's quarterback," Rutgers coach Chris Ash said. "That's just the nature of the business. If you don't want to be in that (conversation), don't be a quarterback. Can some of our passing issues be attributed to Chris? Absolutely. Are they all attributed to Chris? Not at all."

The Scarlet Knights have a solid running back, junior Robert Martin (398 yards in four games). But Rutgers has been badly hurt by the loss of senior game-breaking returner Janarion Grant.

Grant sustained a season-ending ankle injury against Iowa on Sept. 24. He holds the school record of 2,606 kickoff return yards and shares the NCAA FBS record of eight career kick-return scores (five kickoffs, three punts).

The defense is led by sophomore free safety Kiy Hester (36 tackles), senior defensive end Julian Pinnix-Odrick (four sacks) and senior strong safety Anthony Cioffi (two interceptions).

One week after being battered by Ohio State, Rutgers will attempt to slow down a Michigan offense ranked 10th nationally with a scoring average of 44.4 points per game.

Wolverines sophomore quarterback Wilton Speight has been solid with 10 touchdowns against two interceptions while completing 63 percent of his passes. Speight teamed with senior receiver Amara Darboh on the decisive 46-yard touchdown pass in the win over Wisconsin.

Darboh is Michigan's leading receiver with 23 catches for 335 yards and five touchdowns. Senior tight end Jake Butt has contributed 22 catches for 265 yards and three scores.

"It's always fun to go into somebody's house," Butt said, "and you're kind of backed up against the wall. You've got a lot of adversity because you're going against their home crowd."

The teams have split two previous meetings, and a 2014 visit to New Jersey wasn't the least bit fun for Michigan. The Scarlet Knights notched a 26-24 victory in a stunning outcome that went a long way toward putting intense heat on then-coach Brady Hoke before he eventually was fired.

Harbaugh was hired as Hoke's replacement, and now the Wolverines are rolling in his second season.

"He's taken it to another level," Ash said. "He's very creative, thinks outside the box. Finds new ways to get his brand out there, and give him a lot of credit, he's done an outstanding job. That whole staff has done an outstanding job."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Florida State Seminoles (3-2) at Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

Date: October 08, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Not many expected Miami to be in the position it is as the Hurricanes prepare to play host to Florida State Saturday. That is, ranked ahead of the Seminoles (No. 10 to No. 23) and with a better record.

The Hurricanes are 4-0 and 1-0 in ACC play to Florida State's 3-2, 0-2 ledger as they look to the prime time meeting in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET with ABC's cameras catching the action.

Asked what he might have said if had been told before the season that his team would be 4-0 and ranked No. 10, Miami coach Mark Richt downplayed its significance.

"I probably would have been that it doesn't mean a whole lot at that time of year," he said. "I'd be happy and thankful to be 4-and-0 -- that's what you want, you want to win every game and all.

"But you coach 33 years, it's not that big of a deal, Game 5."

No, he is not saying playing Florida State is not a big deal.

"I didn't say the game wasn't a big deal," he quickly added. "I said being ranked ahead of them was not big, if everybody can clarify that. All games to me are a big deal, period."

Of more import than rankings are what weather conditions might be when the two intrastate rivals clash. It could be a rainy night in South Florida depending on what Hurricane Matthew might leave in its wake. So far there is no indication that the date or site of the game will be changed, but it may be difficult for the teams to navigate through the conditions.

How that might affect Miami's offense with quarterback Brad Kaaya at the helm is a bit of an unknown factor.

"It does affect the game if there's rain, if it's nasty," Richt said. "I don't even know for sure how well Brad throws a wet ball 'cause we haven't really practiced a lot in the wet. There's been a couple times and he seems to throw it pretty good.

"Better than most. Some guys it is heart attack time if it rains. I'm serious. If that ball's slick and they don't have a big enough hand or they just don't throw a wet ball well, it can really affect what you do.

"I think Brad can throw a wet ball pretty good."

He certainly has shown he can throw a dry one. The junior starter is completing his passes at a 66.3 percent clip with eight touchdowns against three interceptions (two in one game). In last week's 35-21 win over Georgia Tech, he passed for 241 yards with 13 completions in just 19 attempts.

"We didn't have that many plays," Richt said. "But he graded extremely high in decision-making, his accuracy super high."

Florida State is coming into the clash with more concerns than simply the weather. After starting out ranked No. 4 in the preseason poll with four first-place votes, the Seminoles have lost two of their last three games, including a 63-20 thumping at Louisville and a 37-35 heartbreaker on the game's final play (a 54-yard field goal) to North Carolina last week.

Defense has become a real issue for the 'Noles. They have given up an average of over 35 points and 438 yards a game in total offense. Their last three opponents -- Louisville, South Florida, and North Carolina -- have combined to score 135 points.

Though Jimbo Fisher expressed confidence in third-year defensive coordinator Charles Kelly, the head coach also said he likely will get more involved in the game planning on that side of the ball.

"I will," Fisher said. "We'll have to look and evaluate and make sure all the schemes and everything we do and the players understand what we want. We'll be involved and support those guys and make sure they're doing the right things."

Offensively, the Seminoles are clicking with running back Dalvin Cook having rushed for 407 yards and five touchdowns the last two games. Redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has got his collegiate career off to a great start with a pair of 300-yard passing games already.

"Oh my gosh," Richt said when asked his opinion of Francois. "He's a great athlete who can throw the ball well, pass the ball well. I've seen him throw some balls that were super impressive -- on the run, in the pocket, quick-gain screens, QB run stuff, and creating stuff on his own.

"You can have a defense that does everything right in the passing game and then there he goes."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 6

Now that the LSU/Florida game this week has been cancelled because of Hurricane Matthew, voiding my best bet on Florida +3, it was time to go back to the drawing board for this week's college football card. There were a few other games featuring ranked teams that narrowly missed out on being on that first piece, so I'm turning to one of those games that comes from the Pac-12 for my alternate best bet this week.

Odds: #5 Washington (-10) vs. Oregon (+10); Total set at 69

Washington jumped up to #5 in the polls this week thanks to their dominating performance over Stanford in primetime last week and now the Huskies are in the new role of maintaining that top tier spot the rest of the way. There is no denying how good Washington looked in dismantling Stanford, but that game was also at home and was built up to be a “game of the year” type contest by Washington all summer and leading up to it. For as good as they are, Washington isn't a program that's used to being the top dog and this week they've got to defend that status in a very tough place to play that's been a house of horrors for them this century.

Oregon isn't the powerhouse this year that we've seen in recent years and are coming off three straight defeats, the last of which was a 18-point defeat as a small favorite against the other school from the state of Washington. In fact, Oregon has yet to cash a spread on the closing number (0-4-1 ATS) and when you combine that with how good Washington has looked, it's no wonder that most of the early money has come Washington's way, moving the line up from it's opener of -8.

However, Eugene, Oregon is always a tough place to come in and get a win for a visiting team and while Oregon might not be as good as we've seen in the past, this team can still put up points with the best of them and that's always a plus for any underdog in college football betting. The Ducks are also 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Huskies and that includes a 6-0-1 ATS run at home. Autzen Stadium truly has been a house of horrors for this Washington program for a number of years, and even though many of the players weren't there for the bulk of those defeats, that type of domination still weighs on a program, especially when they are 0-10 SU at any venue against Oregon the past 10 years.

Furthermore, when you think about all the hype and emotion that went into Washington's big win over Stanford this week, it's tough to see the Huskies being anywhere near as sharp in this spot. Washington would love to get revenge for a 6-point home loss as -2.5 point favorites vs the Ducks last year – and more than likely will win this game outright – but asking them to go on the road in a place they've never done well in and win by double digits is a lot to ask.

We've seen before that when people get down on Oregon because of their inability to stop the opposition (like giving up 51 @ Washington State last week) and their offense having execution problems at times. Going up against this Washington defense will be the toughest test to date for Oregon, but with 32 or more points in all five of their games this year, don't sleep on the Ducks this week.

This is only the second true road game for the Huskies and their first one was a seven-point OT win @ Arizona two weeks ago as 16-point favorites. This game could end up playing out a lot like that contest did and while Washington should win this game, they won't cover the spread.

Take Oregon +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 6

Now that the LSU/Florida game this week has been cancelled because of Hurricane Matthew, voiding my best bet on Florida +3, it was time to go back to the drawing board for this week's college football card. There were a few other games featuring ranked teams that narrowly missed out on being on that first piece, so I'm turning to one of those games that comes from the Pac-12 for my alternate best bet this week.

Odds: #5 Washington (-10) vs. Oregon (+10); Total set at 69

Washington jumped up to #5 in the polls this week thanks to their dominating performance over Stanford in primetime last week and now the Huskies are in the new role of maintaining that top tier spot the rest of the way. There is no denying how good Washington looked in dismantling Stanford, but that game was also at home and was built up to be a “game of the year” type contest by Washington all summer and leading up to it. For as good as they are, Washington isn't a program that's used to being the top dog and this week they've got to defend that status in a very tough place to play that's been a house of horrors for them this century.

Oregon isn't the powerhouse this year that we've seen in recent years and are coming off three straight defeats, the last of which was a 18-point defeat as a small favorite against the other school from the state of Washington. In fact, Oregon has yet to cash a spread on the closing number (0-4-1 ATS) and when you combine that with how good Washington has looked, it's no wonder that most of the early money has come Washington's way, moving the line up from it's opener of -8.

However, Eugene, Oregon is always a tough place to come in and get a win for a visiting team and while Oregon might not be as good as we've seen in the past, this team can still put up points with the best of them and that's always a plus for any underdog in college football betting. The Ducks are also 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Huskies and that includes a 6-0-1 ATS run at home. Autzen Stadium truly has been a house of horrors for this Washington program for a number of years, and even though many of the players weren't there for the bulk of those defeats, that type of domination still weighs on a program, especially when they are 0-10 SU at any venue against Oregon the past 10 years.

Furthermore, when you think about all the hype and emotion that went into Washington's big win over Stanford this week, it's tough to see the Huskies being anywhere near as sharp in this spot. Washington would love to get revenge for a 6-point home loss as -2.5 point favorites vs the Ducks last year – and more than likely will win this game outright – but asking them to go on the road in a place they've never done well in and win by double digits is a lot to ask.

We've seen before that when people get down on Oregon because of their inability to stop the opposition (like giving up 51 @ Washington State last week) and their offense having execution problems at times. Going up against this Washington defense will be the toughest test to date for Oregon, but with 32 or more points in all five of their games this year, don't sleep on the Ducks this week.

This is only the second true road game for the Huskies and their first one was a seven-point OT win @ Arizona two weeks ago as 16-point favorites. This game could end up playing out a lot like that contest did and while Washington should win this game, they won't cover the spread.

Take Oregon +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona Wildcats (2-3) at Utah Utes (4-1)

Date: October 08, 2016 10:00 PM EDT

Utah, coming off a disheartening loss at Cal, takes on one of its most problematic opponents this Saturday.

The Utes (4-1 overall, 1-1 Pac-12) play host to Arizona at Rice-Eccles Stadium trying to end a four-game losing streak to the Wildcats. Arizona won 37-30 in double overtime last season when Utah was ranked No. 10.

"For whatever reason, we have probably executed as well against them as with any team we've played, both home and away," Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez said.

"Our guys have been dialed in, and, particularly up there, we've gotten turnovers. Some of that is luck and some of that was good play, but to beat them you have to get turnovers. If we don't get any turnovers this game, we're going to have a tough time."

Arizona (2-3, 0-2) might be down to its third starting quarterback of the season. Anu Solomon hasn't played since suffering a knee injury in practice after the season-opener. His replacement, Brandon Dawkins, left last week's 45-24 loss at UCLA in the first half because of a rib injury. Rodriguez, as of Tuesday, had not commented on the severity of either injury.

He pulled true freshman Khalil Tate out of a redshirt year in the second half, and the four-star, dual-threat recruit looked sharp, completing 5 of 9 passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns and rushing 15 times for a team-high 79 yards.

"Sometimes, guys get in their first action and the lights are too bright, but he was spot on," Rodriguez said. "Even when he made a wrong read or something, he knew right away. That part of it was very encouraging."

Utah is trying to bounce back from a 28-23 loss at Cal, where the Utes were stopped at the goal line as time expired.

Taking care of Arizona would restore Utah's hope of winning what appears to be a wide-open Pac-12 South race, led by surprising Colorado at 2-0. The Utes' defense, Whittingham's bread and butter, faces an Arizona team that has the No. 2 running game in the Pac-12 at 246 yards per game.

Utah defended the run well last year in Tucson, allowing Arizona only 158 yards, but it has had problems with Rodriguez's up-tempo, zone-read, spread offense. Utah has allowed an average of 269 rushing yards in its four-game skid to the Wildcats.

"We've been watching the last four years of film and last year, we did the best job, but they have gashed us," said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham.

"Structurally, there's only so much you can do with how many guys are in the box. It's a lot like playing Air Force. It's assignment football with the read option, and we're just going to have to do a better job of playing assignment football."

Injuries could play a key role Saturday.

In addition to Arizona's uncertain quarterback position, starting running back Nick Wilson has only eight carries in the past three games because of an ankle injury. The tailback spot is so decimated that Tyrell Johnson, converted from slot receiver two weeks ago, had 16 carries vs. UCLA.

The Wildcats were also down three starting offensive linemen in the second half against the Bruins, and at least two starters on defense.

Utah, meanwhile, played against Cal without standout defensive tackle Lowell Lotulelei and receiver Cory Butler-Byrd. The Utes also lost leading receiver Tim Patrick, center J.J. Dielman, cornerback Reggie Porter and receiver Kyle Fulks during the game.

Dielman, a team captain and 2015 all-conference honoree, is lost for the season with a lower leg injury.

Per his policy, Whittingham didn't offer any other updates on injured players during the weekly press conference.

Utah's best path to victory might be to attack a smallish Arizona defense on the ground. The Utes' by-committee approach includes true freshman Zack Moss and sophomore Armand Shyne. Moss has team highs of 66 carries and 309 yards, despite not playing in the season opener against Southern Utah.

The physical approach in the run game helps open things up for quarterback Troy Williams, who is one of only two Pac-12 quarterbacks this season with six completions of 40 yards or longer. He has not thrown an interception in Pac-12 games against USC and Cal.

Utah stayed in the Top 25 after its loss last week and now it will be trying to stay in the Pac-12 South race.

"I don't think anyone in the division is going to go undefeated. It's very competitive," Whittingham said.

"Two losses should win it, and we have seen it happen with three losses. The bottom line is that our destiny is still in our hands and there's a ton of football left so we have to find a way to

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 6 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

So now the SEC has a potentially big problem. That's because Saturday's LSU at No. 18 Florida game was postponed with Hurricane Matthew battering the Sunshine State on Thursday and Friday. The weather should be fine Saturday in Gainesville, but obviously the area could be without power and there are travel issues and police needed elsewhere. It was the right move by the SEC.

The problem is that the game might not be made up, and it could matter big time in the SEC, in which divisional tiebreakers are based on winning percentage in conference games. Neither the Tigers nor the Gators have an open date left on the regular-season schedule. LSU is a game back in the loss column behind first-place Texas A&M and Alabama in the SEC West but still plays both. Frankly, Saturday's postponement might have worked out well for LSU as the team was expected to play without star running back Leonard Fournette again due to an ankle he sprained in August and keeps aggravating.

Florida has a shot to win the SEC East if the Gators win out and Tennessee loses twice. UF's remaining SEC schedule is fairly easy. The two toughest games should be Oct. 29 in the annual Jacksonville Cocktail Party against unranked Georgia and Nov. 5 at No. 16 Arkansas. I can easily see UF running the table there. Tennessee could lose this week as a touchdown underdog at No. 8 Texas A&M and then next week at home, surely as an underdog, against No. 1 Alabama. So then what?

Circle Nov. 19. I always complain about SEC teams having a cupcake team lined up at the end of the regular season, but it might pay off this year. LSU is scheduled to host South Alabama on Nov. 19 and Florida hosts Presbyterian. Those little schools are just cashing checks and the SEC can step in and pay them off. LSU wouldn't like losing a home game and all that revenue, but maybe the SEC can help there too. I guess technically UF also loses a home game, but something will have to be done. The SEC surely isn't going to let the teams play opposite the conference title game (presuming neither is in it obviously) on Dec. 3. Would it let them play the following Saturday when only Army-Navy is on the schedule? The league says a conference game has never before been canceled due to natural causes. Florida and LSU have played every year since 1970.

Another SEC game, Georgia at South Carolina, was moved from Saturday to Sunday. I don't get why LSU-Florida couldn't do that. No. 23 Florida State at No. 10 Miami is going to be played as Miami largely avoided the hurricane. Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

Notre Dame at NC State (-2.5, 64.5): Sometimes I don't get line moves, and this is one of them as the Wolfpack opened as 1-point dogs -- the total has dropped three points too. There are no major injuries to report here. Does anyone think the Wolfpack deserve to be favored with wins over William & Mary, Old Dominion and Wake Forest and a loss at East Carolina? The Irish routed Syracuse 50-33 last week at a neutral site. It was the first game since Coach Brian Kelly switched defensive coordinators, and it didn't help much with the Orange putting up 489 yards. New coordinator Greg Hudson gave younger players more time and he subbed more frequently. I don't pick on my Friday update story, but I'm putting money down on the Irish here. Last year, the Wolfpack were 0-6 against bowl eligible teams.

No. 4 Michigan at Rutgers (+29.5, 53): This spread has risen 3.5 points, and that I get because Michigan is taking the highest lean on the board at some sportsbooks. There's not a ton interesting about this matchup in all honesty as the Wolverines are national title contenders and Rutgers should be in the American Athletic Conference instead of the Big Ten. What's moderately worth watching is that this is Michigan's first road game of the year. Have you ever heard of a team playing its first true road game as late as Oct. 8? I can think of a few who might not have played a true road game this late but at least away from home at a neutral site. The Wolverines did suffer a pretty significant, if under-the-radar, injury in last week's close win over Wisconsin as senior left tackle Grant Newsome was lost for the year to a knee injury. He will be replaced by Juwann Bushell-Beatty, who is from New Jersey. There are a handful of Jersey guys -- including star Jabrill Peppers -- on the UM roster as it has a bit of a pipeline there. Now if only Rutgers could keep the best ones. The Scarlet Knights' first-ever Big Ten win was against visiting Michigan two years ago. Bit of a different UM team now.

Texas Tech at Kansas State (-8, 68): This line has risen a point and the total dropped 4.5, and I believe I know why on both: star Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes is questionable to play. Mahomes, who had on pace to break the NCAA single-season passing record, left last Thursday night's 55-19 home win over Kansas in the third quarter with a shoulder injury and did not return. Before the injury, the junior was 27 of 34 for 277 yards with four touchdowns. His backup, Nic Shimonek, finished 15 of 21 for 271 yards and four touchdowns in Mahomes' place. There's no question that Texas Tech is one of those systems where you can plug in a guy and he'll put up numbers, but Mahomes is considered a top NFL prospect.

TCU at Kansas (+28.5, 66.5): I'll stick with the Big 12 and a Texas team visiting a Kansas one. This total has dropped 2.5 points from its open. The news here is that Kansas is changing quarterbacks, replacing junior Montell Cozart with sophomore Ryan Willis, who did start eight games as a freshman. Willis has played in every game this year, but Cozart started them. KU has been outscored 135-47 in losing three straight games. At least basketball's Midnight Madness is only a week or so away. I actually think KU could cover this because TCU will be flat off last week's near huge comeback vs. Oklahoma.

No. 5 Washington at Oregon (+9.5, 68.5): The line has risen a point and the total dropped one. I touched on this game Monday so won't go into major detail, but it appears that the Ducks are replacing struggling quarterback Dakota Prukop with freshman Justin Herbert. Coach Mark Helfrich needed to do something with his sagging program at 2-3. During Oregon's 51-33 loss at Washington State last week, Prukop completed 14 of 22 passes for 132 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Herbert took over for Oregon's final possession and was 3 for 5 passing for 70 yards and ran for a 4-yard touchdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Washington State Cougars (2-2) at Stanford Cardinal (3-1)

Date: October 08, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Stanford has won three Pac-12 titles in the past four seasons, but for the Cardinal to win it again, they probably can't afford another conference loss.

The 15th-ranked Cardinal, in the midst of a brutal stretch of the season, are coming off a 44-6 loss at Washington, their worst defeat in coach David Shaw's six-year tenure. Stanford (3-1 overall, 2-1 Pac-12) will try to pick up the pieces against Washington State on Saturday at Stanford Stadium, beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Shaw said there will be no panic.

"I will be in the minority, but it's the fourth game, and we're 3-1," he said. "We'll get attacked like we're 0-12 already. We're not going to give up on ourselves. Others might. That's fine. We're not going to get too low."

Washington State (2-2, 1-0) comes in on a high. The Cougars defeated visiting Oregon 51-33, rolling up 651 total yards, including 280 on the ground, their most in a conference game since 2005.

WSU head coach Mike Leach, who usually works with the quarterbacks and receivers during practice, recently has been spending more time with the offensive line. The running game, fueled by a trio of tailbacks -- James Williams, Gerard Wicks and James Morrow -- has gained 508 yards on 65 carries in the past two games.

"The offensive line did a really good job," Leach said about the Oregon game. "They are quality backs, but we are bigger than we have been, and now they are starting to play a little better together than they were early on."

Stanford is the team in this matchup better known for its big offensive line and star running backs. But junior running back Christian McCaffrey, the 2015 Heisman runner-up, managed just 49 yards on 12 carries against Washington, his lowest output since a 2014 game against California.

Quarterback Ryan Burns has been efficient, completing 50 of 79 passes for 546 yards, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. But he was held to 151 passing yards last week and was sacked six times.

"We didn't play well. We didn't block well. We couldn't run the ball. We couldn't pass protect and we couldn't complete passes with any consistency, particularly the first two and a half quarters," Shaw said. "Just not the style of football that we can play and not as well as we can play."

Stanford, the preseason Pac-12 favorite in a league media poll, opened conference play with victories over USC and at UCLA before the Washington game. Now comes Washington State, a game at Notre Dame and then a home game vs. Colorado, which entered the AP poll this week for the first time since 2005.

The Cardinal are dealing with a few key injuries, notably starting cornerbacks Quenton Meeks and Alijah Holder, who each missed the loss to Washington. Shaw said Tuesday that both are likely to miss Saturday's game.

Holder leads the team with five pass break-ups. Meeks twice intercepted Washington State quarterback Luke Falk in last season's 30-28 Stanford victory in Pullman, Wash.

Alameen Murphy and Terrence Alexander started in their place last week and will be busy if they get the call against Washington State's Air Raid passing attack. WSU is tied for first nationally with Texas Tech for the most passing attempts per game -- 53.75.

Falk, fourth in the country in passing at 373.8 yards per game, completed 36 of 48 passes for 371 yards without an interception against Oregon. Senior wide receiver Gabe Marks ranks sixth nationally with 9.0 catches per game and has 29 career touchdown receptions.

"They're running the ball with good efficiency," Shaw said. "Combined with their pass attack, they're very tough to stop."

Stanford has won eight in a row over the Cougars, matching its longest winning streak in the series. Cardinal kicker Conrad Ukropina, who has made all six of his field goal attempts this season, was the hero of last season's game. Ukropina hit three field goals, including the go-ahead 19-yarder with less than two minutes remaining.

This area could be an edge to Stanford, as WSU place-kicker Erik Powell has missed all four of his field goal attempts this season (two were blocked) after a season in which he was just 5 of 10. He missed a 43-yard field-goal attempt on the final play of last year's game against Stanford that would have given the Cougars the victory.

"We should have won last year," Leach said of the Stanford game. "That's our own fault. We have to do everything we can to control our own destiny."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

It’s last call for Breeders’ Cup hopefuls, with eight “Win and You’re In” races on tap on Saturday along with several other races that are being used as preps for the year end championship event coming up at Santa Anita on Nov. 4-5.

Now, finding prices may be another story.

We have a few shorts fields and overwhelming favorites, like Tepin the 2-5 morning line favorite in the $400,000 First Lady (G1) at Keeneland and Lord Nelson the 2-5 chalk in the $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1).

It is Super Saturday at Belmont Park with seven stakes, but we have a few short fields. Just five go in the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), fields of just six going in the $500,000 Champagne (G1), $500,000 Flower Bowl (G1, $400,000 Frizette (G1) and seven in the $350,000 Kelso Handicap (G2).

However, we do have plenty of other races that give us some good wagering opportunities. While the Breeders’ Cup is the talk, there is a pair of juvenile races that could not only produce the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), it could be the coming out party for several top contenders for next spring’s Kentucky Derby (G1).

My analysis for both juvenile races—the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the $500,000 Champagne (G1) are below.



Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 OClm $40,000N2X (12:15 ET)
#5 Get Jets 4-1
#10 Hurry Up Alan 6-1
#2 Come Around 5-2
#6 Cloud Control 6-1

Analysis: Get Jets was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out on the main track at this level in his first start off a seven-month layoff. This guy won the state bred Sleepy Hollow last fall on the main track and now tries grass for the first time. he has a decent turf pedigree, by Scat Daddy out of a Dixieland Band mare that has dropped one turf winner. The Tony D. barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff.

Hurry Up Alan made a mild late run while wide to finish third at this condition last out at the Spa in his first start off the claim by Englehart. This guy has been claimed six times this year and the barn has claimed this guy back three times which sure looks like a good sign. he beat state bred $25,000 claimers two back but it was just his second career win on turf. His last two numbers put him in the mix here and the 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,10 / 2,5,6,10
TRI: 5,10 / 2,5,6,10 / 2,3,5,6,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Champagne G1 (4:13 ET)
#3 Syndergaard 9-5
#5 Favorable Outcome 2-1
#1 Practical Joke 4-1
#6 Big Gray Rocket 6-1

Analysis: Syndergaard steps outside of the state bred ranks here after winning the Funny Cide last out by 10 1/4 lengths in gate to wire fashion over a racing strip that was kind to speed. The Third place finisher in the race was Gold for the King, who came back to win the state bred Breeders' Futurity at Finger Lakes on Oct. 1. The $440,000 Ocala purchase owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and may be tough to catch here. Pletcher has won this race six times including three in a row between 2012 and 2014.

Favorable Outcome is one of two in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn and while the barn is known for turf runners these two juvies he sends out here are promising. This colt was a $300,000Ocala purchase who was a smart looking maiden winner in his debut at the Spa going six furlongs, drawing away to win by six lengths. He is out of the stakes winner Shananies Song ($158,270) who has dropped two other winners including stakes winner Bellamentary ($195,400).

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 8 The Breeders' Futurity G1 (5:10 ET)
#11 Classic Empire 5-2
#1 Bitumen 9-2
#2 Gunnevera 4-1
#12 Lookin At Lee 10-1

Analysis: Classic Empire wheeled at the break and dumped the jock in the Hopeful (G1) where he was sent off as the betting favorite. He comes back with blinkers added today and a switch back to Leparoux who was aboard this guy two back when he won the Bashford Manor (G3) at Churchill Downs. The Casse trainee should not have a problem handling two turns, by Pioneerof the Nile out of a Cat Thief mare that has dropped three other winners and two are stakes winners, top earner Anytime Magic ($192,670).

Bitumen tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth in the Hopeful (G1) last out. The colt won his first two starts, taking the Sanford (G3) two back at six furlongs at the Spa. he is bred to go long, by Mineshaft out of a Tale of the Cat mare that has dropped two other winners including stakes winner Meshell ($196,030).

Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,11 / 1,2,11,12
TRI: 1,11 / 1,2,11,12 / 1,2,3,11,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #6 Panama Papers 8-1
R4: #2 Libby’s Tail 8-1
R7: #8 Pool Winner 15-1
R10: #1 Protonico 12-1
R11: #12 Dot Matrix 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 6:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$5000 - FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $5000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 PACIFIRE 2/1
# 3 FOREVER LA NIGH 4/1
# 4 DESPERATE CROWDS 4/1

After thorough analysis by the handicapping group, PACIFIRE comes out as the top pick. The consortium noted a bang-up affair out of this solid standardbred last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to score. With one of the best drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this mare out of the race. Should be in the hunt again for this one, looking to increase that already high lifetime winning percent. FOREVER LA NIGH - Don't let a fine animal with such a substantial winning rate like this be overlooked. Many harness players know speed is of the utmost importance. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 77 average rating. DESPERATE CROWDS - Could very well provide us a victory based on formidable recent speed figures - earning an average of 74. The 74 average class figure may give this mare a distinct edge in the field of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEARS OLD, REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $300 DUE AUGUST 1, 2016 AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 SUSTAINING PAYMENT DUE SEPTEMBER 1, 2016. NOMINATION AND SUSTAINING PAYMENTS TO BE ADDED TO THE MISS ROXIE LITTLE STAKE PURSE OF $150,000 WITH THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 JES A SPITFIRE 8/5

# 4 JESS JACE 6/1

# 8 KRUZER 10/1

JES A SPITFIRE gets the edge as the wager in here. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Conditioner has sharp win rate (19 percent) at this distance and surface. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the contest. JESS JACE - The Equibase Speed Figure of 68 from his last race looks respectable in here. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group of animals. KRUZER - Is a contender - given the 66 speed figure from his most recent race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 7:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$7450 - COLTS & GELDINGS - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 5 EXT PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $40,000 LIFE SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 HALTON HURRICANE 5/2
# 3 BEACH OGRE 4/1
# 6 DATELINE HANOVER 9/2

Really keen on the chance of HALTON HURRICANE taking down the winner's share in this race. Cannot put a finger on it, but support this gelding for a play. His 85 average has this gelding among the top TrackMaster SRs in this event. He has very nice class figures, averaging 85. Should be considered for a bet in this event. BEACH OGRE - Has to be given a look based on the very nice speed rating achieved in the most recent race. This standardbred may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. DATELINE HANOVER - Talk about a dynamic duo, Dobson and Buter have some of the best driver/trainer rankings at the track.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Northlands Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 3.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 45

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 3 STEPHANIANN 5/2

# 1 TEEMANS PEARL 3/1

# 6 MISS PINK MAGIC 7/2

I've got to go with STEPHANIANN. Has respectable early lick and will probably fare admirably against this field. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this group. TEEMANS PEARL - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Joseph have shown sharp results as of late. Will probably compete well in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group. MISS PINK MAGIC - She has decent class ratings, averaging 50, and has to be given a chance in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belmont Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:03pm - Stakes - 10.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500,000 Class Rating: 119 Flower Bowl S. (Grade 1)

Rating:

#4 SENTIERO ITALIA (ML=4/1)
#2 STRIKE CHARMER (ML=6/1)
#5 LADY ELI (ML=8/5)


SENTIERO ITALIA - Sneaky speed on this one. She'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then bury them down the stretch. Changes tracks from last out at Saratoga to here. Multiple wins on different ovals tell me this one likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. STRIKE CHARMER - Changes tracks from last out at Saratoga to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this horse likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. This horse may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Moving down the stretch, she could put these away. Average class rating is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big edge for a grass race. This horse already beat the favorite last time out at Saratoga. Horse has improved at least 2 Equibase speed figure points in last two races. I look for that positive increase to continue in this field. That 119 fig this mare registered in her last event tells me she's a main player in today's event. LADY ELI - Horses out of the barn of Brown have been solid on the grass. Should perform well in this race. This filly is almost always in the money. Brown moves this horse here to Belmont Park from Saratoga. Looking at the horse's PPs, she has shown the ability to win at different racing venues. This filly is tops in earnings per start. Give the once over to this horse in the saddling enclosure. This filly is clearly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 108, 113, 117 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SEA CALISI (FR) (ML=5/2), #1 AME BLEUE (GB) (ML=8/1),

SEA CALISI (FR) - Finished first in her most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. AME BLEUE (GB) - Not probable that the speed figure she notched on September 17th will be enough in this race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #4 SENTIERO ITALIA on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 1:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#8 ATHERA (ML=3/1)


ATHERA - Trainer Sano moves this horse to a lower class rank to face a lower rated field. Look for a strong race with this class drop. When I see a 2 year old with dominant sire statistics, I take a closer look.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LITTLE UNITED (ML=9/5), #9 WILDCAT WAVE (ML=7/2), #7 INDIAN FIRE (ML=9/2),

LITTLE UNITED - Not a perfect 'spot' in this event. WILDCAT WAVE - Not the proper 'placement' in this affair. INDIAN FIRE - In any race of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in short distance races lately. Not probable that the speed figure she recorded on September 16th will be good enough in this race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 ATHERA to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:13 PM EASTERN POST

The Champagne Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $500,000.00 PURSE

#3 SYNERGAARD
#1 PRACTICAL JOKE
#5 FAVORABLE OUTCOME
#4 LOOKIN AT BLESSING

Here in the 146th running of this stakes event which is the finale of the juvenile stakes series here at Belmont Park, #3 SYNERGAARD, is undefeated in a two race career, winning both in "POWER RUN FASHION." Jockey John Velazquez was in her irons for both of those "Circle Trips" and is back this afternoon for his 3rd ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win." #1 PRACTICAL JOKE is 4-1 in the morning line, and is also undefeated in his two race career, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 10/8 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3,4,8,9/1,4,7,9/5/1/1,4,6,7,8 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 1/1,4,6,7,8/2,3,4,6/5,9,10 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,5,6,7/1,2,5/1,6/4,5,7 = $72

MEET STATS: 402 - 1186 / $2080.30 BEST BETS: 66 - 109 / $205.50

SPOT PLAYS: 24 - 109 / $162.80

Best Bet: ALWAYS A HOTSHOT (4th)

Spot Play: CONTINUAL HANOVER (6th)


Race 1

(1) SURE FIRED BET gets a much better post for his second start back from a break and should be a big price. He's worth an upset look here in a wide-open race to kick things off. (3) NEW STANDARD looks ready to roll coming back from a break and he should be passing many of these late. (4) MAX IS BACK made a big sustained move last week and almost sprung a big upset; using. (8) REDONKULUS has won close to 50% of his starts. This is a race that needs deep Pick 5 coverage.

Race 2

(7) MARQUIS VOLO drops back to non-winners of three off a good try vs. better. I'll give him the nod here. (4) A ROD HALL will roll by late one of these weeks when he is close enough turning for home; maybe tonight? (9) HONOR ABOVE ALL continues to race well every week. Toss him on the Pick 5 despite the post. (1) IRISH SCOTCH could get another great trip here and he can crack the exotics.

Race 3

(5) LISVINNIE faces much easier here and stands a good chance of controlling things throughout. (6) WALTZKING HANOVER goes to Moreau here off the claim and should be an exotics factor. (2) MR MASSIMO can use his good early speed to get a spot near the front and stick around for a share. (1) SMALLTOWN TERROR couldn't chase down the pocket-sitter last time and may find a couple of these too tough, but he can take a smaller share.

Race 4

(1) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT has been outstanding since returning from a break. He should take his third straight at a puny price here. (6) CRUISE PATROL can get closer to the choice moving in a few posts here; exacta factor. (9) MACH POWER blitzed his rivals on the backside last week. He is in great form now but the choice may be too much for him to handle at this time. (10) BIG PLACE looked good closing quickly at the end of the mile last time. He could crash the exotics at a price here.

Race 5

(4) RUBIS PRESCOTT came close to winning last time in this class. She could get her preferred pocket trip here and notch a rare win. (6) STONEBRIDGE QUEST should get an aggressive drive here and she is most dangerous when racing near the front. (8) VOODOO CHARM took a new life's mark in this class two starts back. Don't discount her chances here. (1) MISS COCO LUCK has been racing well and she could trip out here starting from the inside.

Race 6

(4) CONTINUAL HANOVER made a big move on his way to a win last week. He couldn't be any sharper right now; call to repeat. (3) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP should lay closer to the pace here which gives him a chance of upsetting. (2) DAYLIGHT RUSH races best on the lead. He could take these a long way if the intent is to take no prisoners. (6) FLAHERTY is good enough to win this if he stays flat but the break last week is concerning.

Race 7

(10) JACK RACKHAM fits well here and he should bring a good price; call to upset. (9) SPORTS AUTHORITY had a brutal trip last time but he may be able to clear these and if he does, he will be tough. (5) SPEEDLING's last was too bad to be true after his life's-best effort two back. Toss his last line. (1) ADORE HIM went a big mile last time taking a ton of air and persevering for the win. Toss him on some Pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(1) DARCEE N flew home last week despite having missed a month. He can lay closer here and pounce earlier. (5) YORK SEELSTER returns quickly after a sharp win on Tuesday. I'll use him in the late Pick 4. (7) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE paced his back 1/2 in 54 flat last week. He is sharp and dangerous. (6) HIDDEN POTENTIAL has an upset chance here and is likely to get aggressive early.

Race 9

(5) JINS SHARK took a new life's mark in his first start for Menary and there's a good chance he could work out a similar trip here stepping up in class; slight nod. (1) NICKLE BAG has reached peak form and can't be left off the late Pick 4. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER closed like he was shot out of a cannon down the lane last week. He has to prove he can do it vs. better, but that was impressive. (3) ELLIS PARK is a terrific earner but frequently comes up a bit short in this class.

Race 10

(1) NIRVANA SEELSTER drops and should pop here leaving from the innermost post. (6) AMERICAN VIRGIN also faces easier and he should be able to work out a decent trip this time. (7) AUDREYS DREAM flew home last week. Consider him for exotic bets. (5) MAGNUM J is one of several three-year olds in here that are likely prepping for next week's OSS Superfinal. Proceed with caution.

Race 11

(7) SPORTSMANSHIP drops back to a level he should like and I expect him to blast off the gate here. (5) VEGAS ROCKS was the best of the rest vs. a heavy chalk last week. He figures here, too. (4) PRINCE CLYDE won in a similar class two back by controlling the race. He should be prominent throughout here. (2) REGAL SON looks ready to fire a good one coming off a break; consider for Tri, Super and High-5 bets. (1) AKOYA has been hot out of town, but his style conflicts with a couple of others here; minor share predicted.