Saturday's Top Action
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (5-2) at MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (4-3)
Line: Michigan -14, Total: 39
No. 15 Michigan and Minnesota will square off for the 102nd time on Saturday in Minneapolis as the rivals play for The Little Brown Jug.
Michigan (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) will look to rebound from the last second Agony in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, a game in which they entered the final play with a 99% win probability but muffed a punt then kicked it into the arms of Michigan State's Jalen Watts-Jackson who returned it 38 yards for a game-winning touchdown.
Minnesota (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS), also coming off a bye week, endured its second loss of 20+ points in three games at the hands of Nebraska, 48-25. Defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys was promoted to interim head coach to replace the newly retired Jerry Kill for the remainder of the season.
The Wolverines hold a definitive all-time series advantage with 73 wins, 25 losses and three ties, including a dominant 39-4 SU advantage in the past 43 meetings. However, the Golden Gophers did take back the Jug last year in Ann Arbor, snapping a six-game losing skid in this series. Minnesota, which currently stands as a 13-point underdog, is 6-2 ATS over the past three years in games it was an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, and 10-5 ATS against teams with a winning record the past three years.
Bettors should take note that Michigan is 13-6 ATS in this series since 1992, including a 7-1 mark in Minneapolis. The Wolverines are also 7-2 ATS the last three years coming off a conference loss.
Despite the improbable loss last time out, the Wolverines didn't play their "A" game, as they were outgained by 158 yards, including a season-low 62 rushing yards, and allowed a season-high 328 passing yards. For the season, they are averaging 28.6 PPG and 368 total YPG. This yardage is a nearly even split between 186 passing YPG (6.5 YA) and 181 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC).
Senior QB Jake Rudock has not thrown for 200 yards in six straight games, tossing only 3 TD and 3 INT during this stretch. If junior RB De'Veon Smith (436 rush yds, 4.5 YPC, 4 TD) is ineffective like he was last week with 46 yards on 19 carries (2.4 YPC), Rudock will have to air out the football.
The offense hasn't needed to be great this season because the Michigan defense has allowed the fewest total YPG in the nation (211 YPG), excelling at both stopping the run (65 YPC, 2nd in FBS) and the pass (146 YPG, 2nd in nation). A low-scoring game certainly plays in the Wolverines favor as they are 75-35 ATS when allowing 14 points or less since 1992, including 4-1 this season. The Gophers are also 13-44 ATS when scoring 14 or fewer points in this same span.
Tracy Claeys has a tall task of replacing the popular Jerry Kill, and must improve Minnesota in nearly all facets. In the last game, the Gophers allowed a season high in passing yards (261) while recording a season-low 65 rushing yards on 26 carries. The offense has only 20.4 PPG and 351 total YPG this season and is facing arguably the best defense in the country. Minnesota is 10-24 ATS when gaining 250 total yards or fewer since 1992, and Michigan has held opponents to 250 total yards or fewer five times this season, going 4-1 in these games.
Junior QB Mitch Leidner (1,310 pass yds, 6.2 YPA, 7 TD, 6 INT) has thrown six interceptions and only four touchdowns in the past five games, but is coming off a season-high 301 passing yards (1 TD, 2 INT) in the loss to Nebraska. The best offensive player on the team is freshman RB Rodney Smith (467 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD), but he hasn't had enough touches in the past three games with only 32 carries for 104 yards (3.3 YPC) and zero touchdowns.
This defense has been solid in limiting teams to 23.1 PPG and 329 total YPG this season, broken down between 177 passing YPG (5.6 YPA) and 151 rushing YPG (3.9 YPC). The Gophers will need to become big-play seeking ball hunters, as the Wolverines two losses this season have come in games where they both lost the turnover battle and allowed a defense or special teams touchdown.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-2) vs. FLORIDA GATORS (6-1)
Line: Florida -3, Total: 46
Georgia and No. 11 Florida will square off on Saturday in Jacksonville with first place in the SEC East on the line.
A Gators win would give them a two-game lead in the division, while a Bulldogs victory would create a tie for first with just two conference games left to play for each team. After suffering consecutive losses to Alabama and Tennessee following star RB Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury, Georgia (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) got back in the win column in its last game on Oct. 17. It beat a struggling Missouri team, 9-6, but failed to cover the 15-point spread and suffered its fourth straight ATS defeat.
Florida (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is also coming off a bye week after suffering its first loss of the season at LSU, 35-28. The defeat was largely due to an inability to stop Leonard Fournette and LSU’s ground game, which ran wild for 221 yards on 5.4 YPC. The Gators had entered that game allowing just 104.8 rushing YPG.
For this series, Florida is 15-8 ATS head-to-head against Georgia since 1992 but bettors can also point to the fact that poor rushing teams (3.0 to 3.5 YPC) like the Gators facing a good rushing defense (3.0 to 3.5 YPC allowed) are just 15-50 ATS (23%) in conference games in the past five seasons.
Head coach Mark Richt is 17-6 ATS in road games following in-conference home wins in his time at Georgia. His defense, which entered the Missouri game allowing 137.5 rushing YPG, held the Volunteers to a season-low 21 yards on the ground, with a 0.95 YPC average. The Bulldogs’ fifth-leading tackler and leader in passes broken up, safety Dominick Sanders, will be unavailable for the first half, albeit due to suspension, for a targeting penalty against Missouri.
Bettors should know that the Bulldogs (33.1 PPG on the year, 26.6 in SEC play) are 102-48 ATS when scoring 28 or more points since 1992, while Florida is 0-8 ATS when allowing 28 or more points the last three years. For Georgia to reach that threshold again, it will need QB Greyson Lambert (1,276 pass yds, 8.2 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT) to continue to limit mistakes and for backup RB Sony Michel (508 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 4 TD) to be fully recovered from his hip injury. In Michel's last SEC road game at Tennessee, he rushed for 145 yards on 22 carries (6.6 YPC).
After suspending starting QB Will Grier (1,204 pass yds, 7.5 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT) for the season, Florida will be sticking with sophomore QB Treon Harris under center. Harris played pretty well in a tough LSU venue last week with 271 passing yards on 17-of-32 throwing with 2 TD and 0 INT. But one Gators player that has to improve is RB Kelvin Taylor (463 rush yds, 3.6 YPC, 8 TD) who has rushed for a meager 3.0 YPC in the past three games.
The Florida defense has been nasty all season in limiting opponents to 17.3 PPG and 314 total YPG. Being on the field for only 27:22 certainly helps, as does holding teams to 118 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Gators have always had playmakers on defense and this season's squad is no exception with 14 takeaways in seven games.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-1) at TEMPLE OWLS (7-0)
Line: Notre Dame -11, Total: 50
No. 21 Temple entertains No. 9 Notre Dame in what might be the most important game in the history of this rising AAC school.
Both teams are rolling, as the 6-1 Fighting Irish have won five straight games ATS while the unbeaten Owls (5-2 ATS) are off to their best start in school history at 7-0. They haven't allowed even 17 points in any of their four October games. These schools have met just once before, a 28-6 Notre Dame home win in 2013, and there are plenty of reasons to expect another sizable victory on Saturday.
The Fighting Irish are 9-1 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 under head coach Brian Kelly, and are 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in three straight games since 2013. But the Owls are 34-19 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992, and their Saturday opponent is a dismal 10-26 ATS versus good defenses (4.5 or less yards per play allowed) in this same span.
Neither school has many new injuries to worry about, as the Irish got healthy during their bye week and are minus only OL Alex Bars (ankle, out) and the Owls have just two players questionable in DE Sharif Finch (knee) and S Will Hayes (hamstring).
Notre Dame's offense continues to produce big numbers, averaging 38.3 PPG and 500 total YPG (7.3 yards per play) this season. Exceptional balance of 235 rushing YPG (5.9 YPC) and 264 passing YPG (9.2 YPA) has helped the school rack up 23.6 first downs per game.
Sophomore QB DeShone Kizer (1,370 pass yds, 9.0 YPA, 10 TD, 4 INT) has thrown for over 200 yards in all five of his starts and has also gained 158 and 3 TD on the ground in the past four weeks. Kizer continues to heavily target star WR Will Fuller who has surpassed 120 receiving yards four times this season including 131 on just three catches (43.7 avg) in the team's most recent game versus USC two weeks ago.
The Irish will have to continue being unpredictable on offense by mixing in a steady diet of handoffs to senior RB C.J. Prosise who has amassed 922 yards on 7.1 YPC and 11 TD. He has rushed for more than 125 yards in five of the past six games and has multiple touchdowns in four of his past five contests. The Irish defense has done its job for the most part this season in allowing 22.6 PPG and 370 total YPG.
Although they have surrendered 22+ points in six straight contests, USC was the only team to post 30+ points (31). The run-stop unit has been the biggest weakness, as it allows 174 YPG on a hefty 4.8 YPC, but the pass defense has been serviceable in limiting opposing quarterbacks to 196 YPG (6.6 YPA) on 55% completions. The unit is also making more plays recently with five takeaways in the past two weeks following a stint of 0-to-1 turnovers in the each of the season's first five games. With the Owls committing multiple turnovers in three of the past five contests, Notre Dame should keep trying to make plays on the football.
Temple has done a nice job of controlling the clock this season with a beefy 33:11 average time of possession. Although the school gains only 346 total YPG, it is still scoring 32.3 PPG for the year, including 35.3 PPG in three home games.
Junior QB P.J. Walker (1,314 pass yds, 7.0 YPA, 9 TD, 3 INT) has just one 300-yard passing game this season, but he usually makes smart decisions with the football evidenced by a 60% completion rate and only one interception in the past four games combined. Senior WR Robby Anderson has been the go-to receiver with 31 catches for 388 yards and five touchdowns, all of which lead the team by wide margins. Anderson does a nice job of using his 6-foot-3 stature to out-jump opposing defensive backs, and is coming off a huge game last Thursday when he caught eight passes for 126 yards, both season highs.
But the main engine to this Owls offense is RB Jahad Thomas who has carried the football 165 times (23.6 carries per game) for 822 yards (5.0 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. The junior Thomas has scored at least once in all seven games and has also caught multiple passes in six straight contests, totaling 204 receiving yards, which puts him second on the club behind only Anderson.
However, the main reason this Temple team has stayed unbeaten is a stifling defense holding teams to 14.6 PPG and 307 total YPG. These numbers improve to a stingy 12.0 PPG and 141 total YPG at home. Not only can't teams rush the football with any success, gaining a paltry 92 YPG on 3.0 YPC, but the secondary has also held strong. Although opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 215 YPG, they have done so on a meager 5.5 YPA and 52% completion rate. Temple has also done a great job in creating mistakes with at least two takeaways in five games, which gives the Owls 15 forced turnovers this season.
