Saturday 10/25/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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English Premier TODAY 15:00

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KEY STAT: Arsenal have drawn five of their eight league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Arsenal have now gone three league games without a win after drawing 2-2 at home with Hull last weekend and there’s no guarantee they will bounce back at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland were whacked 8-0 away at Southampton last time out but are unbeaten at home, having held Manchester United and Tottenham.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
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REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maple Leafs-Bruins trending Under
Stephen Campbell

The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins have a habit of participating in high-scoring affairs, evidenced by the Over going 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams.

They'll renew acquaintances Saturday in Toronto.

Boston is currently -110 moneyline faves with a total of 5.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Home teams dominating between Flyers-Wings
Stephen Campbell

Home teams have been dominating in past games between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings. The home side has gone 18-2 in their last 20 matchups.

Philly hosts Detroit Saturday. The Flyers are presently -115 moneyline favorites with the total set at 5.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF ACC Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams

The Atlantic Coast Conference will have its biggest draw taking a rest this week, as unbeaten Florida State takes a break after its thrilling win in a marquee game last week against Notre Dame. Clemson's star is fading, but they're the only ranked ACC team in action this week, facing Syracuse under the lights in Death Valley.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-3 1-2 5-2 2-4-1
Clemson 5-2 4-1 4-3 3-4
Duke 6-1 2-1 4-2-1 1-5
Florida State 7-0 4-0 1-6 3-4
Georgia Tech 5-2 2-2 3-4 4-3
Louisville 6-2 4-2 5-3 1-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 3-4 3-4
North Carolina 3-4 1-2 2-5 4-2
North Carolina State 4-4 0-4 4-4 3-4-1
Pittsburgh 4-3 2-1 3-3-1 2-4-1
Syracuse 3-4 1-2 3-4 2-4-1
Virginia 4-3 2-1 5-1-1 3-4
Virginia Tech 4-3 1-2 3-4 2-4
Wake Forest 2-5 0-4 3-4 1-6


North Carolina at Virginia (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels hit the road for Charlottesville looking to turn things around. UNC has allowed 34 or more points in five straight games, 27 or more in all seven outings this season and they're just 2-5 ATS overall. Lately, the over has been the play in games involving the Tar Heels, going 4-1 over the past five. However, the under is 6-2-1 in the past nine meetings in this series. UNC hasn't had a ton of success at Scott Stadium over the years, going just 2-7 ATS in their past nine trips to UVA, although they have covered the past four meetings overall against the Hoos. UVA is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, with their lone non-cover coming last week at Duke. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six at home, and 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games overall.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Things were going swimmingly for the Ramblin' Wreck until a couple of weeks ago when they faced Duke at home. They lost their first conference game 31-25 to the Blue Devils, and then were tripped up on the road at North Carolina, 48-43, last week. The Yellow Jackets are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning record, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. In addition, they're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record. For Pitt, while they are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five, the Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC battles, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record. Better yet, the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a winning road mark.

Boston College at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
The Eagles head to Winston-Salem looking to maintain their dominance agaisnt a Demon Deacons team which has been hard-pressed to must any offense. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five overall and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles. However, they are also 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games, and 8-23 ATS in their past 31 against a team with a losing record. However, that's old BC. This season in two road tilts, they are 2-0 SU/ATS. The real trend to be mindful about might be the under, which has cashed in three straight for the Eagles and four straight, and six of seven, for the Deacs. Wake Forest is averaging just 6.7 points per game over the past three.

Syracuse at Clemson (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Syracuse hits the road for Death Valley looking to build on last weekend's thrashing of Wake Forest on the road. The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their past five road trips, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road outings against a team with a winning home record. For Clemson, they're 5-1 ATS in their past six home games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC games. However, all bets are off with backup QB Cole Stoudt under center. The Tigers barely scratched out a 17-13 win at Boston College last week in Stoudt's first start since Sept. 20. The under has hit in three straight for Clemson, and the under is 4-1-1 in the past six for Syracuse.

BYES
Duke, Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 9
By ASA

Game of the Week

Michigan State (-17) vs. Michigan - 3:30 PM EST
After an early 17-14 second quarter deficit to Indiana, the Spartans were able to get on track to the tune of 42 unanswered points in the 56-17 blowout win. The Hoosiers, playing with their third string quarterback, were completely outmatched against this MSU defense. Hoosiers' QB Diamont completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards as Indiana limped to just 224 total yards (75 of which came on one TD run) and 7 first downs. It was just the type of dominating win that the Spartans needed after back-to-back close calls against Nebraska and Purdue. MSU, meanwhile, did whatever it wanted on offense, gaining 662 yards and achieving 30 first downs. It was the fifth time in seven games that the Spartans scored 45+ points and Sparty now has the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the nation. This week they return to East Lansing for the all-important rivalry game with in-state rival Michigan.

Michigan was off last week after ending a three-game skid with a home win over Penn State. It'll be a matchup of strengths as MSU will try to get its 12-ranked rushing attack going against this Michigan run-defense that surrenders just 93.3 yards per game on the ground. The Wolves' offense will need to perform much better than the unit that has averaged just 16.5 PPG over the last four games. They'll also need to avoid costly mistakes that have plagued them throughout the year (-13 turnover ratio). This hasn't been a very close rivalry in recent past as the Spartans are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Last year MSU won 29-6 and owned a +226 yard advantage as it held Michigan to -48 total rushing yards. Michigan State is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 conference games. Michigan is just 10-23-1 ATS in its last 34 road games.

Best of the Rest

Ohio State (-13.5) @ Penn State - 8:00 PM EST
Ohio State QB Barrett is putting himself in the Heisman discussion as he has averaged 292.5 pass YPG with 17 pass TD, 3 rush TD, and just 1 INT over the last four games. OSU has outscored those four opponents 224-69, including a 56-17 blowout win over Rutgers last week. The game was over early as OSU scored early and often en route to a 35-7 halftime lead. The Buckeyes' defense suffocated the Scarlet Knights on offense, not allowing any big plays and forcing three turnovers. Rutgers' yardage total was 345, but a lot of that came in garbage time when the game was well in hand for the Bucks. OSU is playing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball and it will take a huge effort for the Nittany Lions to come up with an upset on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are off of a bye after playing six straight games to start the season. They are off of a second consecutive loss in their last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in consecutive losses.

The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. The pass defense has surrendered B1G-best three TD passes this season and is allowing opposing QB's to complete just 53.8%. They'll face their toughest test to date against Barrett and this rolling OSU offense. OSU is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last three road games against the Nittany Lions, winning by an average margin of 16.3 PPG (all by 12 points or more). Last year the Buckeyes won in Columbus by 49 points and had +329 yards, +12 first downs, and +3 in turnovers. OSU is on an extraordinary run on the road with a 35-15-1 ATS record in the last 51 road games. They are also 28-12-2 ATS in the last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. Penn State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games.

Nebraska (-17.5) vs. Rutgers - 12:00 PM EST
The Huskers got off to a slow start in Evanston last week and trailed Northwestern 14-17 at halftime. They woke up in the 2nd half and put the Wildcats away with a 24-0 surge to win 38-17 in a key road win. RB Adullah rebounded after a poor performance against MSU (45 rush yards) to rush for 146 yards and 4 TD against NW. The Huskers defense limited Northwestern to just 290 total yards and frustrated Wildcats QB Siemian into just 18-of-39 completions with 0 TD and 1 INT. Northwestern RB Jackson had 99 rush yards and 2 TD in the 1st half, but Nebraska limited his impact in the 2nd half and held him to just 29 rush yards in the final two quarters. The Huskers will face a similar team this Saturday against Rutgers. Expect Nebraska to ride Abdullah against this Rutgers D that surrendered 324 rush yards on 8.1 YPC to Ohio State last week. Rutgers played well hosting its first two B1G games against Penn State (narrow three-point loss) and Michigan (two-point win) before getting absolutely blasted in its first B1G road game last week at Ohio State. A normally stout pass defense was picked apart by OSU's Barrett, who finished with 261 yards and 3 scores.

The Scarlet Knights didn't get much going on offense and the lack of playmakers on offense was apparent as QB Nova struggled to get the ball down-field and finished with just 192 pass yards despite attempting 28 passes. The three-headed rushing attack of Peoples, Goodwin, and Martin combined for 170 yards on 31 carries with 2 TD, representing the lone thing that went right for the Scarlet Knights last week. Rutgers gets another tough road test this week as it travels to Lincoln to take on the Huskers. Rutgers is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog, though they did fail to cover last week as the 20.5-point 'dog @OSU. Nebraska is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home favorite of 14 points or more.

Minnesota (-6.5) @ Illinois - 12:00 PM EST
An ugly win is still a win and the Gophers have become accustomed to winning ugly. A week after needing a 99-yard kickoff return for TD to beat Northwestern at home, the Gophers needed a second half comeback to hold off a stiff challenge from the visiting Boilermakers. Purdue held a 38-29 lead in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to escape with a victory. Three different players scored a rushing TD as Minnesota romped for 285 rush yards on 5.5 YPC while QB Leidner was an opportunistic with 2 TD passes on just 9 completions. It's a bit concerning that the Gophers were so ceding against the Boilers offense as they allowed 451 total yards, including 298 rush yards on 8.5 YPC. Minnesota yielded a number of big plays, including a 55-yard TD pass and a 42-yard TD run. Still, the 39-38 win might not have been the most impressive, but Minnesota stands alone in first place in the B1G West as it heads to Champaign this weekend.

Illinois used part of their bye week to decide between Aaron Bailey and Reilly O'Toole for starting QB, and it appears that both will split time against Minnesota. Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected in their last game; especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 lead - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is not nearly as explosive. The Gophers are 7-2 SU & ATS in the last nine meetings with Illinois. They've won three straight overall (3-0 ATS) and four straight in Champaign (4-0 ATS). Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 overall and 8-1 ATS in the last nine B1G games. The Gophers are also 15-7 ATS in the last 22 as a road favorite. Illinois is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 conference games and just 5-13 ATS following a SU loss.

Wisconsin (-10.5) vs. Maryland - 12:00 PM EST
The Badgers had last week off after their 38-28 win over Illinois on October 11th. The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. The lack of quarterback production didn't matter against the Illini as the Badgers gored Illinois' defense for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torrid pace of 868 rush yards and 12 TD over the past four games. Maryland has been rather lenient against the rush this season, allowing 198 rush YPG (104th nationally). The Terps will likely attempt to stack the box and not allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this game, rather make Wisconsin QB's Stave & McEvoy beat them through the air.

Defensively, the Badgers' pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. They'll be tested against Maryland QB Brown and a talented receiving corps. CJ Brown is healthy and ready to go after a wrist injury sidelined him for part of the game last week. Despite playing with their 3rd string QB at times, the Terps were still able to get a seven-point win over the Hawkeyes. Maryland's defense surrendered 433 yards, but forced three turnovers - and returned one for a TD - in a much-needed conference victory. Maryland makes its first road trip to Madison this week where the Badgers have as much home field advantage of anyone in the country. The Badgers are 64-7 SU in their last 71 home games and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a B1G home favorite of 10 points or more. Maryland is just 4-8 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall.

Northwestern - Bye
The Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games after starting 2-0 in B1G play, but there are positives to take away. They were tied with the Gophers late @Minnesota two weeks ago before allowing a game-winning 99-yard kickoff return for TD. Last week they were leading at halftime against Nebraska before the Huskers scored the final 24 points in the game. The Wildcats will need to figure out how to add a little punch to this offense. QB Siemian has just four TD passes this season and this rushing attack is ranked 105th nationally. They have yet to reach the 30-point mark in a game and have been held to 20 points or fewer in three consecutive league games. The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern competitive against most opponents, but that will go unnoticed as long as this offensive ineptitude continues. Next up is a road trip to Iowa to try to avenge last year's seven-point overtime loss.

Iowa - Bye
The Hawkeyes had two quick touchdowns at Maryland last week and appeared to be in great position to pull off the upset - and then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points. QB Rudock threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he completed just 32-of-56 passes (57%) and the INT he threw was returned for a Maryland touchdown. Rudock has been forced to throw it more than he should because Iowa has trouble mustering any sort of rushing threat (90th in rush YPG). As is the case with a number of other Big Ten squads this year, a stout defense will only carry this Iowa team so far before the offense needs to pick up some slack. Iowa still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten race with key games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska on deck, and they'll use the bye week to work out the kinks before hosting Northwestern last week.

Purdue - Bye
Quarterback Austin Appelby has revitalized this offense that was downright putrid in 2013. He has led Purdue to three straight games of 30+ points, two of which came against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilers took an 11-point lead into halftime against the Gophers and led by nine points late in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to notch the 39-38 victory. Appleby threw three touchdown passes and the Boilers rushed for 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. Purdue has now covered six of eight games this season, including four of five as the underdog. It'll be tough for the Boilers to become bowl eligible as they need to win three of the remaining four games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Indiana - but the arrow is definitely pointing up for Purdue. Next up the Boilers travel to Lincoln where they'll likely be heavy 'dogs against the Huskers.

Indiana - Bye
A season-ending injury to starting QB Sudfeld pushed freshman Zander Diamont under center last week against Michigan State for the first start of his career. It did not go well as he completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards. Somehow, Indiana held a 17-14 lead in the second quarter before Michigan State scored the game's final 42 points. Other than a stout offensive line that paves the way for star RB Tevin Coleman (132 yards on 15 carries against the Spartans), there isn't much to like about the direction of this team. What once looked like a promising season in Indiana has now been replaced by concern over whether Indiana will win another game this season. Next up the 3-4 Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 has Oregon with hopes of a spot in the four-team playoff at season's end, but it's hard to envision any of the other teams in the league with a prayer, even Arizona, which beat Oregon. It has been a strange season in the Pac-12 so far, as UCLA dropped back-to-back games before barely scratching out a win at Cal last week, effectively taking themselves out of major bowl contention. And Stanford has three losses this season already. If not for Oregon, the Arizona schools, and a surprising run by Utah, it would be a tremendously disappointing season in the conference.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-4
Arizona State 5-1 3-1 3-3 3-3
California 4-3 2-3 5-2 4-3
Colorado 2-5 0-4 3-4 4-3
Oregon 6-1 3-1 3-4 3-3-1
Oregon State 4-2 1-2 2-4 2-3-1
Southern California 5-2 4-1 5-2 4-3
Stanford 4-3 2-2 3-4 0-6
UCLA 5-2 2-2 1-6 2-4-1
Utah 5-1 2-1 5-1 2-3-1
Washington 5-2 1-2 3-4 2-5
Washington State 2-5 1-3 3-4 3-4

UCLA at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA heads to Folsom Field in Boulder looking to stay perfect on the road, as they're 4-0 SU away from Pasadena this season. However, the Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall, and a dismal 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games overall in the month of October. Colorado has improved, although it hasn't exactly translated into victories on the field. However, they're keeping games closer these days, going 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. The road team has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series.

Oregon State at Stanford (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Cardinal are in a rare spot, as they have three losses and it is still just late October. They find themselves as a two-touchdown favorite against Oregon State, who is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record. The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games, and 25-12-1 ATS in their past 38 conference tilts. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. In this series, the trends seem to point to Stanford. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in the series, and the Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their past four battles with the Cardinal.

Arizona at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)
In one of those 'too good to be true' lines, the Wildcats are favored by a field goal (or less at some shops) on the Palouse. Perhaps it is because the trends point to Washington State. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings. Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, with their only cover their outright win at Oregon a few weeks ago as a 21-point underdog. They're 0-6 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a losing home record. However, they are also coming off a bye, and they're 11-5 ATS in their past 16 following a bye week. Washingotn State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference games.
Southern California at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
The Trojans have seized control of first place in the Pac-12 South Division, and they hope to stay their after their game at Rice-Eccles. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, they're just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, while posting a 7-3 ATS mark in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is the trend which looks to be dominant. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's past 10 against a team with a winning record, while Utah is 3-0-1 in the past four overall and 7-1-1 in Utah's past nine against a team with a winning record. The Utes are also 5-2 in their past seven at home.

Arizona State at Washington (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)
The head-to-head trends in this series jump right off the page. Arizona State has covered its past six trips to Seattle, and the Sun Devils are a whopping 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings against the Huskies. However, Arizona State is just 15-33-3 ATS in their past 51 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games on field turf. For Washington, they have covered 17 of their past 24 home games, although they're just 16-40-2 ATS in their past 58 games in the month of October. The total trends are conflicting, too. The over has been hot for AZ State, going 17-7 in their past 24 road games, and 20-8 in their past 28 against a team with a winning record. The under is 10-1 in Washington's past 11 home games against a team with a winning road record, and 18-7-1 in their past 26 home games, and 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

QB Kelly expected to start for Arizona State
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly, who missed the past three games with a foot injury, is expected to return to the starting lineup for the Sun Devils next game against Washington on Saturday, Arizona State coach Todd Graham said Monday.

Kelly has not played since suffering the injury in the Sept. 13 victory over Colorado.

Backup Mike Bercovici finished that game and started the next three. The Sun Devils were 2-1 in the games Bercovici started, losing to UCLA, but then beating USC and Stanford in a difficult three-game stretch.

Bercovici has completed 62.2 percent of his passes with 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also threw the Hail Mary pass that beat USC on the final play of the game.

Despite Bercovici's recent success, Graham has said all along that Kelly would regain the starting job when he was healthy enough to play. Kelly is more mobile than Bercovici and gives the Sun Devils a running threat that Bercovici doesn't.

For the season, Kelly has completed 42-of-68 passes for 625 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing 19 times for 168 yards and two more scores.

The 14th-ranked Sun Devils are 5-1, including 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, while Washington is 5-2 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12 North.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 9
By Chris David

Week 8 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate last week as the ‘over/under’ produced a 25-25-3 record. It’s rare to see three outcomes end in a push but that was the cased based on our closing numbers. Looking at the games closer, the ‘under’ was the right side in arguably two of the three games.

Nebraska 38 Northwestern 17 (Push 55)
The Wildcats led 17-14 at the break but the Cornhuskers outscored used a 24-0 run in the final two quarters to capture the win, 17 of the points coming in the fourth.

Oregon 45 Washington 20 (Push (65)
It was a little surprising that the Ducks kicked a meaningless field goal late in the fourth but it was probably the right call since it was fourth-and-goal from the 9-yard line. Some ‘over’ bettors may’ve earned wins with early numbers (64, 64.5).

San Jose State 27 Wyoming 20 (Push 47)
Likely the worst total beat of Week 8. This was a 10-10 game in the fourth quarter and seven of those points came on a fumble return. The offensive units got in gear in the final 15 minutes, wound up forcing overtime and the rest is history.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

Including the non-conference game between Florida State and Notre Dame, the ‘under’ went 6-1 in ACC matchups last season. North Carolina’s 48-43 victory over Georgia Tech was the lone ‘over’ (67.5) to connect.

The scoreboard operators were busy in the Big Ten last weekend as the ‘over’ went 4-0-1 with the aforementioned push between Nebraska and Northwestern. The two big bullies in the conference, Ohio State and Michigan State, both put up 56-spots last Saturday in easy victories against Rutgers and Indiana respectively.

The Big 12 watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in Week 8 and we had some surprising outcomes. The Baylor-West Virginia total was the highest on the board (80.5) last week and the game had a decent pace at halftime (24-20). In the final 30 minutes, the Bears managed just seven points and the Mountaineers captured a 41-27 upset at home while the game stays ‘under’ the number. While those schools failed to deliver a shootout, the Longhorns and Cyclones did and that certainly wasn’t expected. Texas defeated Iowa State 48-45 as ‘over’ bettors (45) were celebrating in the second quarter.

The ‘under’ went 3-1-1 in Pac-12 play last week and some ‘under’ bettors are probably upset that Oregon kicked a late field goal against Washington when the game was already in hand. (See above)

In five SEC conference games last Saturday, total bettors watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 and there were some outcomes that likely pissed off a few bettors. In particular, Alabama beats Texas A&M 59-0 and the game stays ‘under’ (62.5) the number. No points from the Aggies? Also, Missouri beats Florida 42-13 with 119 yards of total offense. Four defensive and special team touchdowns will hurt any ‘under’ tickets (45) which was the case in Gainesville.

Teams to Watch

When this week’s totals opened on Tuesday afternoon, there were three games that caught my eye and the quick adjustments (line moves) made me delve into them even further.

We asked Totals Expert James Manos to offer up his thoughts and betting advice on three schools that continue to post lopsided total results.

Michigan State has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 this season. This Saturday, the Spartans face intrastate rival Michigan in East Lansing. The total opened 51 ½ and has dropped to 48 ½ points. Make a note that the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run in this series.

Manos: Michigan State totals have been consistently getting UNDER money and it's been costly to those betting. While this Spartans defense is still talented it's likely not on par with last year's edition and has been on the field for more plays as their offense is playing faster. Improved QB play has helped Michigan St. shed it's under ways and the Spartans offense has become balanced averaging 265 YPG passing and 260 YPG rushing. The Spartans have seen a "perfect storm" of sorts when it comes to their totals. They've played three up-tempo teams in Oregon, Purdue, and Indiana, with all those games going OVER the total, and when they've played slower paced teams, Eastern Michigan and Wyoming, they've simply been able to dominant them athletically causing both those games to go OVER as well. The movement on their total this week, however, has little to do with Michigan State and lots to do with their opponent. Bettors see an inept Michigan offense on the road vs. a tough defense and automatically look UNDER. Throw in the rivalry and the fact that the Wolverines were shutout in their only other road game vs a ranked opponent and a case can be made for playing the low side. This is not the week to be riding the MSU OVER train.

Stanford has been a clear-cut ‘under’ team this season, posting a 6-0 record against FBS schools. The Cardinal host Oregon State in Week 9 and the total opened at 44, which has been lowered. Three of the last four have went ‘under’ in this series.

Manos: Not so long ago a total of 42 in a college football game would have had me looking UNDER immediately but now it has me wondering if the line is a mistake. Stanford is a throwback and they've certainly been an UNDER team this season, with a dominating defense and an offense that can't make explosive plays. These trends are unlikely to change for the Cardinal as they are a direct reflection of the style of football played in Palo Alto. Stanford has been playing great defense for years but now their power running game is struggling (95th in the nation in rushing) and it's limiting their offense. Oregon State has been struggling to run the ball as well and will mean lots of 3rd and longs in this contest, meaning lower 3rd down conversion rates, and less offensive efficiency. My concern in playing UNDER would be Beaver QB Mannion's propensity for throwing INT's, potentially setting up short fields for Stanford's offense.

Mississippi faces a tough road test this week at LSU and oddsmakers are expecting a slugfest, opening the total at 47, which was dropped quickly to 45. The Rebels have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six SEC matchups. However, the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series and the lone ‘under’ occurred last season as the pair combined for 51 points. We asked Manos if the Ole Miss defense is legit.

Manos: Yes, I think it's time to say that the Ole Miss Rebels have a great defense. This is the defensive team that the program envisioned when they pulled a recruiting coup and got DT Robert Nkemdiche to come to Oxford. They have nine starters back and their two deep is filled with talented players. Holding Memphis to three points and Alabama to 17 were impressive feats and they simply dominated an improving Tennessee team last week. They haven't' really been tested away from home yet though, but fortunately for them the two toughest remaining games on their schedule (Auburn, Miss. St.) are both home tilts. The Rebels did allow 400+ passing yards at Texas A&M but don't face another team with that type of passing game this season.

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Syracuse/Clemson Under

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Wyoming/Colorado State Over

3) Public Movement – Texas Tech/TCU Over

4) Market Manipulation – USC/Utah Under

Listed below are all of the Week 9 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers as of Friday.


Week 9 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Vanderbilt at Missouri 52.5 42.5
Rutgers at Nebraska 57 60.5
Texas Tech at TCU 67.5 72
Memphis at SMU 52.5 49
UTEP at Texas-San Antonio 55.5 47.5
Old Dominion at Western Kentucky 74 78
Texas at Kansas State 53.5 48

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vargas to take on Vogelsong in Game 4

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Even though Jason Vargas will be making his World Series debut for Kansas City in Game 4, the Fall Classic atmosphere in San Francisco will not be foreign to him.

Four years ago, while home for the offseason in Arizona, Vargas and his wife decided to fly to San Francisco to watch Game 1 of the 2010 World Series between the Giants and Texas Rangers.

The Giants won 11-7 on the way to their first World Series title in San Francisco. They followed with another championship in 2012 and are back in for a third time in five years against the Royals this season.

''It was just an electric atmosphere,'' Vargas recalled before Game 3 on Friday. ''They were ready to go. The fans are here and they want to see their team win, and we're hoping to stop that.''

Vargas will have a big part in that goal when he starts Saturday night against Ryan Vogelsong.

Vogelsong has experience on this big stage, getting the win in Game 3 against Detroit two years ago when he pitched 5 2-3 innings in a 2-0 victory that helped send San Francisco to a sweep.

Vogelsong is the only pitcher to yield no more than one run in his first five postseason starts. That run ended in the NL Championship Series when Vogelsong allowed four runs in three innings of a no-decision against St. Louis.

But Vogelsong has proven he has no problems dealing with the heightened intensity in October.

''The biggest thing is just the experience of curbing the emotions,'' he said. ''It's definitely a situation where you have to be locked into the game and your thoughts need to be on the game, but you have to take a quick second to look around and take it all in.''

Vogelsong's postseason success is partly attributable to an increase in velocity in those games, with his fastball going from the low 90 mph range to about 95 mph.

''It's definitely a different adrenaline when you're in this stadium in a postseason game,'' he said. ''It's different than an everyday regular-season game.''

Vargas has pitched well in his first two postseason starts, allowing two runs in six innings of a no-decision in the division series opener against the Angels and getting the win when he allowed one run of 5 1-3 innings of the ALCS clincher against Baltimore.

Vargas had seven days off before his first postseason start, 12 before the second and nine before the Game 4 of the Series. He has used the time wisely, with the extra bullpen and side sessions helping to smooth out some mechanical issues that contributed to him going 1-5 with a 5.89 ERA in his final seven starts of the regular season.

''He's had two great starts,'' manager Ned Yost said. ''He was a guy that was consistent for us all year. Struggled a little bit his last three or four starts in September, but, again, a lot of that was mechanical, and he's made the adjustment. Had a great start against Anaheim. Had a great start against Baltimore, and we look for him to do the same tomorrow.''

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 179 Preview

Event: UFC 179
Date: Sat. October 25, 2014
TV/Time: (FS1/PPV, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: Ginásio do Maracanãzinho
City: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Featherweight Championship: Jose Aldo (24-1) vs. Chad Mendes (16-1)

Line: Aldo -210, Mendes +170

Jose Aldo defends his featherweight title on Saturday night in Brazil as he takes on Chad Mendes as the headline fight at UFC 179.

These two have already fought in their careers, as Aldo delivered a vicious knockout with his knee with only one second remaining in the first round at UFC 142 on Jan. 14, 2012. Aldo has been off for some time, posting his 17th straight victory on Feb. 1 at UFC 169 against Ricardo Lamas when he won a dominant unanimous decision. In that match, he held a 62-41 striking advantage with two takedowns and two submissions. Aldo is one of the most dangerous fighters in all of the sport because of his ability to win a match in many different ways. He is an incredible athlete who has as good of cardio as anybody in the sport. He has defeated some terrific fighters in his career, beating guys like Mendes, Kenny Florian and Urijah Faber. His opponent, Mendes, has also been on a tear as of late, winning his past five matches since falling to Aldo. In his most recent bout on Dec. 14, 2013, he was able to take care of Nik Lentz by way of unanimous decision thanks to four takedowns during the fight. Like Aldo, Mendes is a talented fighter who can attack in many different ways. At 29 years old, he is still in the prime of his career, and he will be looking to get the signature victory against Aldo.

"Junior" Aldo has 24 victories in his career, with 15 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has eight wins by decision, and the other one coming by submission. His biggest advantage will be if he keeps the fight on his feet. He will have an advantage when it comes to throwing significant strikes, as he lands 3.18 strikes per minute, compared to 2.42 for Mendes. While he does not win a lot of matches via submission, he does have a higher percentage on takedowns (72 percent) than his opponent (60 percent). However, he may try and avoid that, as Mendes has shown to be a world-class grappler. If Aldo is able to keep the fight on his feet and use his athleticism and cardio, then he should be in great shape to get the victory. For Mendes, he will need to use his biggest advantage, which is his powerful fists.

"Money" Mendes enters this match with 16 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of decision. He also has six wins by knockout, with the other two coming by way of submission. Mendes is very strong for this weight class, and that could be his biggest advantage. He has a takedown average of 4.99, while Aldo has an average of only 1.05. If he is able to take Aldo to the ground, he will have a great chance to get the victory. Mendes has shown the ability to win many matches with his cardio, but that will be tough to establish in this fight.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Glover Teixeira (22-3) vs. Phil Davis (12-2)

Line: Teixeira -290, Davis +225

Glover Teixeira looks to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night at UFC 179, as he takes on one of the most talented MMA fighters in Phil Davis.

Teixeira looks to bounce back from his first loss in nine years, as he fell to the champion Jon Jones on April 26. While Teixeira took Jones the distance, he was completely dominated in the fight as Jones held a 138-53 striking advantage with three takedowns and two submissions. The 34-year-old from Brazil is an experienced fighter who has the ability to win a fight in many different ways, especially by way of knockout, as he has tremendous power in his punches. However, he struggled with Jones’ length and athleticism in the fight, and Davis may be the only other guy in the class with that type of athleticism. Like Teixeira, Davis is coming off a tough loss, dropping a unanimous decision to Anthony Johnson on April 26. Johnson held a significant 45-21 advantage for significant strikes in that matchup. Davis, a 30-year-old from Pennsylvania, is an incredible athlete, who has the speed and quickness to wear his opponent out. Teixeira is looking to get back in title contention, but Davis needs that signature win in his career.

"Mr. Wonderful" Davis has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by decision. He also has four wins by submission, with the other two coming by way of knockout. Teixeira is a great fighter, but Davis should be able to use his incredible cardio and conditioning to get the win. If he tries to go punch-for-punch against Teixeira, then he could be in for a tough match. While both fighters are 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, Davis has superior length, and will need to keep Teixeira away from him as much as possible. He has shown the ability to defend punches, blocking nearly 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. If he is able to ward off Teixeira’s punches, Davis will have a great chance to get the win.

Teixeira has 22 victories in his career, with 14 of those coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by submission, with the other three coming by decision. Teixeira has a huge advantage in this fight with his striking, as he lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute, compared to only 2.9 for Davis. Not only does he land more strikes, but Teixeira is more accurate when it comes to landing those strikes at 43 percent, compared to 35 percent for his opponent. Teixeira has tremendous power in his striking, making him very difficult to defeat. This match will come down to who is able to control the speed and tempo of the fight, and Teixeira wants to turn this into a slugfest.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Fabio Maldonado (21-7) vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3)

Line: Teixeira -290, Davis +225

Fabio Maldonado looks to bounce back from a tough loss to as he takes on Hans Stringer at UFC 179 in Brazil on Saturday night.

Maldonado is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Stipe Miocic in his last match on May 31. Maldonado filled in for Junior Dos Santos in Brazil, but was unable to compete as Miocic knocked him out in 35 seconds. Before that loss, Maldonado was on a three-fight winning streak. When he is on top form, Maldonado has elite knockout power. He does a great job of mixing up his jabs to setting his opponent up for his vicious striking. With another opportunity to fight in his home city, Maldonado will have to get off to a faster start in this match. Stringer comes into this match fresh off a victory in his first career UFC match against Francimar Barroso on March 23. In that bout, he was able to get the victory by way of split decision. The 27-year-old from the Netherlands is a powerful fighter who has shown the ability to win any kind of matchup.

Maldonado has 21 victories thus far in his career, with 13 of them coming by knockout. He also has six wins by decision and another two by submission. His biggest advantage will be his ability to land the significant strike, as he averages 6.18 per minute. Compare that to Stringer, who averages only 2.93, and Maldonado will have to control the tempo of the fight. He also lands a better percentage of his attempts at 61 percent, compared to 57 percent for Stringer. If this match turns into a brawl, then Maldonado will be in great position to get the victory. However, if this match goes the distance, then Stringer will have a chance to pull off the slight upset.

Stringer has 22 wins in his career, with 10 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has seven wins by submission and five wins by decision. Neither Maldonado nor Stringer is great at grappling, but Stringer does have a slight advantage (1 to 0.47). However, he is very inaccurate when it comes to landing his takedowns, converting only 12.5 percent of his attempts. If Stringer is unable to keep this match from turning into a brawl, it will be over quickly. In Maldonado’s fight against Miocic, he was careless, and got knocked out quick. Maldonado will come into this match much more focused, so being able to get off to a fast start for Stringer will be key.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 179 Preview

Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back following a three-week hiatus with a big pay-per-view this weekend Brazil. It all goes down with UFC 179 tomorrow night (Saturday, October 25th) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Here's the outline for tomorrow's first show:

Main Card

145 lb title: Jose Aldo (24-1) vs. Chad Mendes (16-1)
205 lbs: Glover Teixeira (22-3) vs. Phil Davis (12-2, 1 NC)
205 lbs: Fabio Maldonado (21-7) vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3)
145 lbs: Darren Elkins (17-4) vs. Lucas Martins (15-1)
155 lbs: Beneil Dariush (8-1) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-0)


Preliminary Card

170 lbs: William Macario (7-1) vs. Neil Magny (12-3)
155 lbs: Yan Cabral (11-1) vs.Naoyuki Kotani (33-11-7)
125 lbs: Scott Jorgensen (15-9) vs. Wilson Reis (18-5)
155 lbs: Felipe Arantes (16-6-1) vs. Andre Fili (13-2)
155 lbs: Gilbert Durinho Burns (8-0) vs. Christos Giagos (10-0)
155 lbs: Fabricio Camoes (14-8-1) vs. Tony Martin (8-2)

This event is special due to the headlining bout of the main card, which features a battle between the two best featherweights in the world in Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes. Aldo is the longest reigning current UFC champion and is also the only UFC featherweight champion, having successfully defended his title every time since transitioning to the promotion. Mendes will be looking to avenge his only career loss, as he was knocked out nearly three years ago when both men squared off the first time, although "Money" is a completely different fighter this time around after developing some serious knockout power.

Pay special attention to the lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush and Carlos Diego Ferreira. Ferreira is undefeated and will be fighting for the third time in four months after making his debut this past June. Dariush is a top prospect out of King's MMA while Ferreira is returning to his native Brazil after spending his entire fighting career in the United States. Both men are very talented grapplers with knockout power so expect fireworks.

Good luck!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EPL Best Bets - Week 9
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

English teams had a rather mixed week in the Champions League. Chelsea were the only side to convince as they beat Maribor 6-0, while fellow Londoners Arsenal picked up three points away to Anderlecht with two extremely late goals. Manchester City again showed their flimsiness in Europe by surrendering a 2-0 lead to CSKA Moscow, while Liverpool were comprehensively outplayed by Real Madrid at Anfield, losing 3-0.

This week's Premier League card looks the hardest to call so far. There are hardly any good prices at short odds. Liverpool and Arsenal's current form means they cannot be trusted at odds-on, while Man City face a difficult lunchtime trip to a rejuvenated West Ham side.

Let's handicap Week 9 of the Premier League.

The Banker: Chelsea Draw No Bet at Manchester United at 8/11

On Sunday afternoon comes the big box-office clash between Manchester United and Chelsea. Should Chelsea win, it would be a sizeable step towards winning their fifth English title, even at this early stage in the season. With Jose Mourinho's record against Arsenal, he will consider this his hardest game left all season. A draw would not be a bad result for Chelsea (or for United, for that matter), which is why I'm keener to take the Blues in the Draw No Bet market over the match winner market, where they are the slight favourites at 6/4.

As usual for big away games, Chelsea will set up to absorb pressure and then break at lightning speed on the counter-attack. Given United's frankly awful defence, their approach will be more attacking than in the draw away to Manchester City. This is too good an opportunity for Chelsea to shut up shop completely, and I'm confident they can continue their fantastic start to the season at Old Trafford.

The Solid Bet: Swansea City to beat Leicester City at 19/20

Swansea tend to be one of those teams that get overrated by punters because they play attractive football, but they look value to get their season back up and running against Leicester at the Liberty Stadium. They have lost three of their last five, but were undone by a dreadful penalty decision in their last game against Stoke. The statistics look good for Swansea, who tend to dominate matches against similar opposition.


Leicester's 5-3 win over over Manchester United is the kind of result that stays in the memory for months. Layers know this, and this has resulted in some extremely skinny prices on Leicester recently. Since that marvellous win, the Foxes have picked up just one point from matches against Crystal Palace, Burnley and Newcastle. Swansea are better than all of them, and there is a sense that Leicester's good early season form has been wiped out.

The Outsider: Hull City to win at Liverpool at 7/1

After a fruitless, but tiring 90 minutes against Real Madrid on Wednesday night, struggling Liverpool will not be in great shape for the visit of Hull City to Anfield on Saturday. Hull have avoided defeat to Liverpool in two of their last three fixtures against them and have made a solid start to the season. Unlike last season, it is the Tigers' attack that is their strength with 13 goals scored in 8 games. Players such as Nikica Jelavic, Abel Hernandez and the in-form Mo Diame can all give Liverpool's weak backline plenty to think about. Hull managed a 2-2 draw at Arsenal last time out.

Much of the talk at Liverpool has been about the awful start Mario Balotelli has made on Merseyside, but this is the least of the Reds' problems. The defence is poor, and goalkeeper Simon Mignolet looks less secure with every game he plays. There is no sense in backing Liverpool at 4/9 here, and I'd recommend siding with the visitors however you can.

The First Goalscorer: Eduardo Vargas for Queens Park Rangers vs. Aston Villa at 17/1

Eduardo Vargas impressed for Chile at the World Cup, and was considered quite a coup for big-spending QPR. He made a slow start, but two goals off the bench in the Hoops' unlucky defeat to Liverpool will mean that he is set to start Monday night's game against Aston Villa. Compared with the other front runners ni the first goalscorer market, Vargas looks sparkling value. Villa are a side on the way down after a good start. They have lost their last four games, without scoring and having conceded ten. QPR's sprited performance last time out was something off a one-off, and they look too short to back at 8/11, but in Vargas they have a player of real potential.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Premier League Betting Preview: Tadic's Encore
Soccer Authority

The Premier League is beginning to take shape this season and it is becoming more obvious that there will be a two horse race between Chelsea and Manchester City. Last years champions Man City are finally starting to show what they are capable of with Aguero leading the charge. Chelsea are getting more comfortable in blowing away lesser opposition.

Goals Galore

This week sees Chelsea travel to Old Trafford to take on a very different Man United side to last year. Louis Van Gaal has built an ultra attacking side with some really exciting players such as Di Maria and Falcao. Nevertheless, they leak goals like a broken tap and you can expect this Chelsea side to get past United’s poor defence. Expect a high scoring affair here, as Old Trafford will be buzzing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday's games

Top games of week

South Carolina is 1-5 vs spread this season, 0-2 on road, splitting pair of road games, winning 48-34 (-21) at Vandy, losing 45-38 at Kentucky (-4) Gamecocks are 15-10-1 as road underdogs under Spurrier. Auburn is 7-3 as home favorite under Malzahn, 3-1 this year; since '08, Tigers are 9-15 in game following a bye. Four of five Auburn wins this year are by 24+ points. Carolina allowed 450 rushing yards in last two games; even I-AA Furman ran it for 211 against them.

Last time Miss State played on road (Sept 20) they were unranked; now they're #1 in country, unchartered territory which means every team will bring their best game against them. State allowed 27.7 ppg in last three games- they're 3-1 as favorites this year. SEC home underdogs are 6-4 in conference play. Kentucky was 5-1 before losing 41-3 at LSU last week; they're 2-6-2 in last ten games as a home dog, 7-10-1 last 18 games that followed a loss.

UCLA won its three Pac-12 meetings with Colorado by average score of 49-14; Bruins are 1-6 vs spread this season, 1-2 as road favorites, with wins by 8-35-2 points on foreign soil- they allowed 30-42-34 points in last three games. Colorado is 3-1 as underdog this year, covering both its games as home dog, losing to ASU by 14, Oregon State by 5. Pac-12 home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in conference games this years. Buffs gave up seven TD passes to USC's Kessler last week.

Oregon State is 19-7 vs spread in its last 26 games as road dogs, 0-1 this year (lost 35-10 at USC); only twice in its last 16 games with Stanford have Beavers lost by more than 8 points. OSU lost its last four games vs Stanford (1-3 vs spread)- they lost last three visits to Farm by 4-38-8 points. Cardinal lost two of last three games, scored 20 or less points in three of last four- they're 20-16 in last 36 games as home favorite, 2-1 so far this season.

Lane Kiffin returns to Knoxville (he coached Tennessee to 7-6 record in 2009, then bolted to USC) as Alabama's OC; Crimson Tide won 59-0 at home over Texas A&M last week, but scored 17-14 points in previous two games- they're 2-1 on road this season, winning by 1-10 points with loss at Ole Miss. Young Vols lost last four I-A games, scoring 9-3 in last two; they're 3-10 in last 13 games as a home dog. Bama ran ball for total of only 234 yards in two road games.

Michigan State won five of last six games with Michigan, with four of five wins by 14+ points; favorites are 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Wolverines lost last three visits here, by 23-14-6 points; faves are 4-1-1 in their last six trips to East Lansing. Michigan lost three of its last four games- they gained total of 256 yards in 18-13 win over Penn State last week and covered once in last six games. Oregon/Nebraska are only two teams to hold Michigan State under 45 points this year.

Ole Miss covered its last nine visits to LSU, but lost five of last six SU, with all five losses by 7 or less points. LSU is 9-3 SU in last 12 series games, scoring 41+ in last four series wins. Rebels are 7-0 with one win by less than 15 points (Bama 23-17); they've won at Vandy/A&M, are 4-0-1 as favorites this year. LSU scored 71 points in winning last couple games since 41-7 loss at Auburn; Tigers are 2-2 as home underdog under Miles- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.

Arizona won five of its last six games with Washington State; underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 series games. Wildcats won last three trips to Pullman by 17-31-10 points, but they failed to cover last three tries as a road favorite at Wazzu. Coogs are off bye after losing three of previous four games, allowing 34+ points in all three- they scored 31+ points in three of their five losses. Arizona is 5-1 but their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points-- dogs covered all five of those games.

USC won its last three games with Utah by 16-10-9 points; Trojans are 2-1 on road this season, with all three games decided by 6 or less points (underdogs 3-0 vs spread). Utah is 5-1, winning its last two games by a total of eight points; they're back to Wilson at QB this week-- curious that they scored 26+ points in every game while being undecided at QB. Teams that beat USC scored 37-38 points; Since 2012, Trojans are 1-9 vs spread when giving points on the road.

West Virginia gave Baylor its first loss LW; home team won both their games with Oklahoma State, with Cowboys winning 55-34 here couple years ago. WVU won 30-21 at home LY. OSU QB Walsh is out for year; they're 27-56 passing in last two games, but both were on road. West Virginia won both its true road games by FG, scoring 40-37 points; they gained 456+ yards in each of last six games. State is 16-6-1 vs spread in last 23 home games, 2-1 this year.

Keep in mind Kansas State's gutty QB Waters dinged his shoulder last week at Oklahoma; he finished game but wasn't 100%. Wildcats are 5-1 in last six games with Texas, with three of last four wins by 18+ points. Longhorns lost last three visits to Little Apple by 18-25-3. Texas is 3-4; its last two games were decided by total of 8 points- they won 23-0 at Kansas (-12) in their only true road game. K-State covered its last four games- they won last three, scoring 44.7 ppg.

Ohio State won/covered its last four games, scoring 50+ points in every game; Buckeyes won 52-24 (-7) at Maryland in its only true away game. Penn State scored total of 19 points in losing its last two games; since '06, they're 2-4-1 as home underdogs. OSU assistant coach Johnson was longtime aide at Penn State. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-4 vs spread in conference games. Penn State ran ball for 64 or less yards in four of six games; Akron/UMass are only teams they ran ball for 100+ against.

Arizona State QB Kelly's foot is said to be OK; he should play here after backup Bercovici did yeoman work in 2+ games as backup. ASU is 3-0 on road, scoring 44.7 ppg, allowing 27 ppg. Sun Devils won eight in row vs Washington, covering all eight (were favored in 7 of 8). Huskies allowed 314 rushing yards in LY's game. ASU beat USC/Stanford in last two games; they had allowed 200+ rushing yards in four straight games before holding Cardinal to 76 in last game.

Notes on rest of the card
-- Northern Illinois is 12-1 in last 13 games with Eastern Michigan, winning last six meetings (5-1 vs spread). Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 games as a home underdog.
-- Clemson is 5-2 but its last two wins are by total of 10 points; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as home favorites. Syracuse won both its road games this year but was favored in both games- they're 4-6 as underdogs under Shafer. .
-- Underdogs covered four of last five Minnesota-Illinois games, with Gophers winning nine of last 12, including last four in Champaign, by 14-4-7-26 points.
-- Favorites covered six of last eight Akron-Ball State games, with Cardinals winning last four games, taking last two here 37-30/23-17. This is Akron’s last Saturday game; their last four games are all on Tuesdays.

-- Central Michigan-Buffalo haven’t met since '09; Chippewas split four road games but lost as 10-point home favorites last week. Buffalo is 1-4 vs I-A teams despite scoring 31.4 ppg in those games; they’ve already fired their coach.
-- Western Michigan won three of last four games with Ohio, with wins by 21-7-13 points; Bobcats lost 41-20/23-10 in last two trips to WMU- they lost last three road games, by 17-30-18 points.
-- Favorites covered four of last five BC-Wake games, with Deacons winning two of last three. Last eight series spreads before this game had all been 6 or less points. Wake covered two of last three as a home dog vs BC.
-- UCF outgained Temple 657-519 in wild 39-36 win LY in Philly, last-minute win propelled UCF QB Bortles up NFL draft boards. Temple allowed total of 41 points in its four wins; they allowed 31 in each of their two losses.

-- Lot of distractions at North Carolina with the academic scandal becoming more public. Tar Heels won/covered last four games with Virginia by average score of 38-14, winning last two here 37-13/44-10. UNC allowed 43+ points in four of last five games (34 in fifth).
-- Pitt (+10.5) lost 21-10 at Georgia Tech LY, with Tech running for 276 yards; Panthers snapped 3-game skid with win over Va Tech last week, but they lost last two home games, to Akron/Iowa.
-- Maryland is 3-0 SU on road this year; they allowed 83 points in last two games, both at home. Terps are 10-7 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Wisconsin is 7-3 as home favorite under Anderson, 1-2 this year.
-- Vanderbilt is starting its 4th different QB this season vs Missouri; a freshman this time. Underdogs covered six of seven Vandy games this year; Commodores are 3-1 as an underdog, all getting double digit points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's free selection: Kent State Golden Flashes + 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: Colorado St -18½ Over Wyoming

 

[Gotigers]

Does anyone have the RAINMAN? He has 10 star today

Thanks in advance

 

[BRUTUS]

Yes..RAINMAN FULL CARD PLZ....THNKS

 

[pascal5757]

FantasySportsGametime.com

SATURDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Kentucky +14.5 over Mississippi State (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Kentucky has won and covered the spread in five of the last seven games and they have covered the spread in 11 of the last 17 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards in their last game. Kentucky has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 home games and they are only allowing an average of 15 points on defense in home games this season.


5000* Play UNLV +16.5 over Utah State (TOP NCAA PLAY)

UNLV has covered the spread in 10 of the last 15 games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games after covering the spread in two of the last three games. UNLV has covered the spread in 18 of the last 25 games after allowing 450 or more total yards in two straight games and they have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games when playing in weeks five through nine.

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50* Play TCU -22.5 over Texas Tech (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Memphis -23 over SMU (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Tennessee +17 over Alabama (BONUS NCAA PLAY)

 

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MLB Baseball

1000* Play Kansas City +115 over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)

Ryan Vogelsong has lost 11 of the last 18 games when pitching in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season and he has an ERA of 5.14 in his last three overall starts.