Teddy Covers Bonus Play:
Saturday, October 24
Auburn @ LSU
Recommendation: Take LSU
Auburn looked like a juggernaut through the first month of the season, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. Just a few weeks later, it looks as if the Tigers will be unlikely to win another SEC game. Gene Chizik has depth problems that are very atypical of SEC squads.
Auburn started the season with only 75 scholarship players. Most teams have 85. Nine of those 75 are hurt and can’t play. Others are being redshirted, building for the future. Others are bottom tier roster guys – special teams backups and guys that never see the field at all.
The Tigers have lost 44% of the scholarship players that they’ve signed over the last four years. That’s why a whopping 15 walk-on’s have gotten playing time for an SEC team; many on special teams. Last week, their three starting linebackers were their only three linebackers, seeing action on every single defensive play from scrimmage. No wonder this defense has looked completely gassed in the fourth quarter in each of the last three weeks!
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense is regressing as opposing teams get more film on Gus Malzahn’s offense in an SEC setting. QB Chris Todd needed 25 pass attempts to throw for 95 yards last week against a Kentucky defense that has been ravaged with injuries. LSU should have similar success shutting down the passing game here.
LSU is tanned rested and ready to make some noise following their bye week. While Auburn is playing walk-on’s on special teams, LSU is playing future NFL’ers. Chad Jones has already scored on a punt return this year; Trinton Holiday is always a danger to take it to the house on kickoffs. And the hidden advantage of winning the field position war makes LSU’s sluggish offense that much more potent, particularly late in the game when pointspreads are often decided. The Tigers long term 1-13-1 ATS mark as an SEC home favorite under Les Miles has created enough anti-LSU sentiment to give us all kinds of value here.
(#394) Take LSU -7.5
Saturday, October 24
Auburn @ LSU
Recommendation: Take LSU
Auburn looked like a juggernaut through the first month of the season, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. Just a few weeks later, it looks as if the Tigers will be unlikely to win another SEC game. Gene Chizik has depth problems that are very atypical of SEC squads.
Auburn started the season with only 75 scholarship players. Most teams have 85. Nine of those 75 are hurt and can’t play. Others are being redshirted, building for the future. Others are bottom tier roster guys – special teams backups and guys that never see the field at all.
The Tigers have lost 44% of the scholarship players that they’ve signed over the last four years. That’s why a whopping 15 walk-on’s have gotten playing time for an SEC team; many on special teams. Last week, their three starting linebackers were their only three linebackers, seeing action on every single defensive play from scrimmage. No wonder this defense has looked completely gassed in the fourth quarter in each of the last three weeks!
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense is regressing as opposing teams get more film on Gus Malzahn’s offense in an SEC setting. QB Chris Todd needed 25 pass attempts to throw for 95 yards last week against a Kentucky defense that has been ravaged with injuries. LSU should have similar success shutting down the passing game here.
LSU is tanned rested and ready to make some noise following their bye week. While Auburn is playing walk-on’s on special teams, LSU is playing future NFL’ers. Chad Jones has already scored on a punt return this year; Trinton Holiday is always a danger to take it to the house on kickoffs. And the hidden advantage of winning the field position war makes LSU’s sluggish offense that much more potent, particularly late in the game when pointspreads are often decided. The Tigers long term 1-13-1 ATS mark as an SEC home favorite under Les Miles has created enough anti-LSU sentiment to give us all kinds of value here.
(#394) Take LSU -7.5
