Saturday 10/22/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB*|*IDAHO*at*APPALACHIAN ST
Play Against - Home favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points
41-15*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)

CFB*|*WYOMING*at*NEVADA
Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (WYOMING) average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game)
89-45*over the last 10 seasons.**(*66.4%*|*39.5 units*)
3-1*this year.**(*75.0%*|*1.9 units*)

CFB*|*WYOMING*at*NEVADA
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (NEVADA) off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival
181-87*over the last 5 seasons.**(*67.5%*|*0.0 units*)
14-8*this year.**(*63.6%*|*0.0 units*)

CFB*|*AKRON*at*BALL ST
Play Over - Any team against the total off a home blowout loss by 28 points or more, with a winning record on the season
46-18*over the last 10 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
0-2*this year.**(*0.0%*|*-2.2 units*)

CFB*|*WISCONSIN*at*IOWA
Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (WISCONSIN) average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game)
89-45*over the last 10 seasons.**(*66.4%*|*39.5 units*)
3-1*this year.**(*75.0%*|*1.9 units*)

CFB*|*COLORADO*at*STANFORD
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (COLORADO) excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game
25-6*over the last 10 seasons.**(*80.6%*|*0.0 units*)
3-1*this year.**(*75.0%*|*0.0 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFB: Scoring at a premium'

Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes October 22, 12:00 EST

Iowa and Wisconsin are two teams built on defense. Through their first 7 games, Hawkeyes (5-2, 3-4 ATS) have surrendered 19.1 points/game. Wisky (4-2, 5-1 ATS) which has a defense that has to be ranked as one of the best in the nation is allowing 15.2 per/contest. Niether offense is not going to get a lot of points, expect a repeat of last years tussle that saw Iowa nip Badgers 10-6. Hawkeyes 1-4-1 O/U taking points at home, 1-5 O/U scoring 24 or less in front of the friendly crowd at Kinnick Stadium, Badgers 2-9-1 O/U in unfriendly territory consider 'Under'.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'SEC Showdown'

Texas A&M at Alabama October 22, 3:30 EST

Huge Southeastern Conference Showdow in Tuscaloosa when top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0, 5-2 ATS) hosts Texas A&M Aggies (6-0, 4-2 ATS). This past weekend, the Crimson Tide went to Tennessee and spanked Vols 49-10 as a 14-point road favorite recording a 19th consecutive victory with a money-making 12-7 record against the betting line. Aggies off a 'BYE' were last seen taking down those same Volunteers 45-38 in double overtime but failed at the betting window as 7.5 point home chalk. Opening odds had 'Bama' 16.5 point favorites but has since been bumped* to 18.0 across all shops.

Defense the moniker for Crimson Tide allowing a lowly 15.0 points/game on 274.7 total yards along with an unstoppable offense lead by QB Jalen Hurts racking up 504.7 yards/game split between 239 passing, 265.7 rushing yards/game will be difficult to beat in confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Tide are on an 23-1 stretch in front of the friendly crowd.

However, you do bet Alabama at some risk as Tide did struggled against the betting line in those twenty-four home games (11-12-1 ATS), have failed to cash in four of the past five hosting an SEC opponent and have dropped the loot in seven of its last ten overall laying 15 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 8 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

Now that we are in Week 8 of the college football season, it's a good time to look at some updated Heisman odds because most consider this the start of the second half of the season with almost every team having played at least six of its 12-game regular-season schedule.

The Heisman favorite remains Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson at -200. And the super sophomore should be the favorite as he has been easily the most electrifying player in the land this season. Jackson has accounted for 30 touchdowns, which is more than 98 FBS teams have scored at this point. The one thing that could hurt Jackson the rest of the way is that Louisville won't get a ton of attention as it plays a really weak schedule other than a trip to No 11 Houston -- and that has lost luster with the Cougars losing to Navy and then nearly losing last week to Tulsa. The No. 7 Cards are -19 this week against a dangerous NC State team.

Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett is at +550 and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson at +750. Barrett's No. 2 Buckeyes could be tested a bit this week at Penn State, although OSU is a 19.5-point favorite. Ohio State still has marquee games vs. Nebraska, Michigan State (though the Spartans are way down this year) and Michigan. Watson's No. 4 Tigers are off ahead of their season-defining trip to Florida State next week.

I don't think that he will win it, but the best overall player in college football this season has been Michigan do-it-all Jabrill Peppers, who is +1000 to join former Wolverine Charles Woodson as the only defensive players to win the Heisman. Peppers plays defensive back and hybrid linebacker and has 38 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, six quarterback hurries and one forced fumble. He also gets some carries in the backfield (five carries for 98 yards and two scores) and is a very good kick returner (one TD). That guy is going to be a superstar in the NFL. The No. 3 Wolverines are -36 this week against visiting Illinois. Be aware that Illini starting quarterback Wes Lunt is questionable with a back injury.

Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

Oregon State at No. 5 Washington (-36.5, 54.5): The Huskies are the biggest favorites on the board. And while that's a ton of points to give to a Power 5 Conference rival, you might want to because the Beavers are without their top two quarterbacks and leading rusher -- plus UW is rested off its bye week, although the Huskies could be looking ahead to next week's tough trip to No. 19 Utah. In last week's 19-14 loss to the Utes, OSU starting quarterback Darell Garretson and backup Conor Blount left with injuries in back-to-back possessions. Garretson's season is over with a broken ankle and Blount is out at least this week with a knee issue. So sophomore third-stringer Marcus McMaryion gets the call. He was 5-for-9 for 76 yards off the bench against Utah and did play in seven games last year, starting one. If he gets hurt, the team will have to burn a redshirt it was hoping to use on freshman Mason Moran. Meanwhile, running back Ryan Nall is likely out with a foot injury. He had 221 yards and three TDs two weeks ago in an upset of Cal but aggravated a foot injury on his first carry vs. Utah. Thus it would be a minor miracle if OSU scores Saturday against one of the nation's best defenses.

Colorado at Stanford (-2, 49.5): I didn't think the Cardinal could win at Notre Dame last week without star running back Christian McCaffrey, but they did 17-10 -- although I think that says more about how bad the Irish are this season. McCaffrey is considered questionable for this one with his undisclosed injury. It's too bad he couldn't go pro after last season when his stock was sky high. It has definitely slipped this year. If McCaffrey can't go, Bryce Love would make his second career start and he had 129 yards and the winning touchdown vs. Notre Dame. This game means much more to the Buffs, who are tied for first in the Pac-12 South with Utah. Are you aware that Colorado is the only unbeaten ATS team in the nation at 7-0 ATS?

Texas at Kansas State (-3, 56.5): This total has dropped two points. Here's a Big 12 matchup where I think both coaches will not be on their respective sideline next season. No chance Charlie Strong will be back at Texas, and Bill Snyder is likely to retire (for good this time) at K-State. There was some question earlier this week whether Wildcats starting quarterback Jesse Ertz would be able to start after leaving last week's loss to Oklahoma in the third quarter with an arm injury. It is thought he will go. Ertz is a solid dual-threat QB, but K-State's offense ranks last in the Big 12 and 115th nationally in yards (342.7) and last in the Big 12 and 112th nationally in passing yards (167). KSU has won four straight at home vs. Texas.

No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU (-6.5, 60.5): This line has risen two points, and I'm guessing it's because the Tigers are expecting star tailback Leonard Fournette -- another guy who would have benefitted from going pro after last year -- to return from his ankle injury. Fournette has missed three games this season, including the last two, because of a nagging ankle injury he initially suffered in an August scrimmage. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in the three games he has played. Backup Derris Guice performed well enough when Fournette was out that interim LSU coach Ed Orgeron says he will rotate the two backs to keep them fresh. With a win here, LSU is very much in the SEC West race as it still plays co-leaders Alabama and Texas A&M, and one of those two will lose Saturday.

No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn (-9.5, 55.5): This line also has risen two points and the SEC clearly owns the weekend as this is the third Top-25 matchup of the weekend along with Ole Miss-LSU and Texas A&M-Alabama. The injury to watch here is to Auburn top tailback Kerryon Johnson. He hurt his ankle on Oct. 8 vs. Mississippi State, but Auburn was on the bye last week and that has improved his chances of playing. Johnson leads the Tigers with 538 yards and six rushing touchdowns on the season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Auburn is also very much alive in the SEC West with a win, as like LSU it is 2-1 in the conference. However, Auburn already lost to Texas A&M and has to travel to Alabama to close the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

It is just two weeks until the Breeders’ Cup, and while most of the top horses are at Santa Anita or getting their final preparations out of the way before shipping there, we do have plenty of great betting action on tap on Saturday.

It is Empire Showcase Day in New York, with an all state bred card of 11 races including eight stakes, with purses worth more than $1.75 million.

The fall Keeneland meeting is winding down, and we have a competitive feature, the $250,000 Lexus Raven Run (G2) for three-year-old fillies that drew a field of 12 that go seven furlongs on the main track.

I suppose it’s possible we could see a filly run big and come back in two weeks to go in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

Lightstream is the 3-1 morning line favorite for trainer Brian Lynch. The filly was a game second in the Test (G1) at Saratoga in her last outing.

The Belmont Park card is really good despite a couple of short fields One of the toughest races for me to figure out is the $200,000 Mohawk at 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf.

Turf veterans Kharafa, Lubash and King Kreesa have squared off more times than I can count. King Kreesa won the Mohawk in 2013, while Lubash won the race last year.

I am leaning toward Kharafa getting the job done again, but look out for relative newcomer Offering Plan, who has a shot of upsetting the trio.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $62,000N1X (12:25 ET)
#2 Deuces High 4-1
#7 Born for a Storm 8-5
#1 Wine Not 5-2
#3 We Did 8-1

Analysis: Deuces High set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish last out in the mud, down along the inside much of the trip on a day the outer paths were best. The cut back to a one turn mile should suit this Violette trainee. He broke his maiden here three back in his debut at the distance.

Born for a Storm tracked the early pace toward the outside and finished evenly while unable to get to the winner in a runner up finish last out as the beaten chalk. He broke his maiden two back at the Spa going 6 1/2 furlongs in his third career start. He should be tighter in his second start trying to get a mile for Brown. His best makes him tough but our top pick is going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 10 The Empire Classic (5:19 ET)
#6 Royal Posse 3-1
#2 Governor Malibu 2-1
#1 Wake Up in Malibu 4-1
#9 Empire Dreams 10-1

Analysis: Royal Posse ran second in this race last year and is coming in off a sharp win in the state bred Evan Shipman last out and earned a career top two back winning the restricted Alydar, both trips at the Spa going nine furlongs. He has run well here a swell, landing in the exacta in 7 of 8 trips. It's tough to knock anything RRod has been sending out recently, the barn hitting at a 30% clip at the meeting.

Governor Malibu has fit in graded stakes company, running second in the Jim Dandy (G2) back in July and the Peter Pan (G2) in May. He returned to the state bred ranks last out and trounced second level optional claimers. He appears to be coming into this race off a sharp prep but his price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6,9
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,6,9 / 1,2,5,6,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 The Raven Run G2 (5:30 ET)
#12 Lightstream 3-1
#11 Takrees 12-1
#10 Sophia's Song 5-1
#6 Bellamentary 6-1

Analysis: Lightstream stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Test (G1) last out at the Spa behind a 55-1 bomb. The filly won her first three career starts including the Beaumont (G3) here at the spring meeting. The Lynch barn is 15% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She has been working steadily for her return off the break and should work out a good trip breaking from the far outside.

Takrees was outrun early while saving ground and came with a wide rally to finish third last out in the prioress (G3) at the Spa going six furlongs. She caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. She makes her third start since May and appears to be getting good right now. The McLaughlin trainee should end up going off at a generous price.

Sophia's Song made a good late rally to finish close up third in the Charles Town Oaks (G3). She won the Caesar's Wish three back at Laurel Park going a one turn mile. She will be closer to the pace here exciting the bull ring in West Virginia and the blinkers come off. This is her third start off a five-month layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 11,12 / 6,10,11,12
TRI: 11,12 / 6,10,11,12 / 4,6,10,11,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R1: #1 Luvthatmustang 10-1
R4: #7 Score babe 8-1
R5: #9 One Dollar 8-1
R5: #2 Sneaky Betty 8-1
R6: #7 Tamit 8-1
R6: #2 Court of Love 12-1
R8: #9 Financial Modeling 8-1
R9: #11 Takrees 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 10/22 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

BEST BETS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: WALNER (1st)

Spot Play: BILL’S MAN (9th)


Race 1

(5) WALNER has proven himself to be the best 2-year-old trotting colt in North America. It will take a mammoth effort from one of his foes or a poor race on his part to lose. (1) DEVIOUS MAN proved game at the Red Mile to continue his long losing streak. We’ll get to see how good he really is against this group. (7) NEW JERSEY VIKING has ability but needs to be a bit faster to win.

Race 2

(8) HUNTSVILLE couldn’t have been more impressive when winning in 1:49 in Kentucky two weeks ago. There is no doubt in my mind that he is the horse to beat for the Crown in this division. (2) OCEAN COLONY was scratched last time with a slight fever. The Jimmy Takter-trained colt has talent and can step up. (5) MCTHRILLER seems to be a step behind the top ones but has form on his side.

Race 3

(5) DARLINONTHEBEACH and (6) PURE COUNTRY are the clear leaders among 3-year-old pacing fillies. I’ll give a slight edge to the former because she has a post edge. (4) CALL ME QUEEN BE has dangerous early speed.

Race 4

(7) ROARING TO GO absolutely loved the big track in Lexington and now gets a chance to carry that success over to The Meadowlands. Art Major-sired filly is fast off the gate and should offer fair value. (8) IDYLLIC BEACH is widely considered to be the divisional leader and deserves plenty of respect. (2) AGENT Q seems to be one of those dangerous tricky horses which follow great and can take you down if you show signs of weakness. (1) BRAZUCA has won four straight and gets tested for class now.

Race 5

(2) ALL THE TIME makes her first start since colic surgery and certainly qualified back strongly. Unless she is odds-on, I’m on board with her on the win end. (5) CAPRICE HILL disappointed in Canada last time but did miss four weeks prior to that start. I’m willing to forgive that effort and assume she’ll be sharper tonight. (8) NON STICK is the New York champion. Let’s see how he does when stretching out on the bigger oval.

Race 6

(5) BOSTON RED ROCKS has recently built up his confidence while taking on weaker foes. Breeders Crown champion from 2015 looks like a fresh horse ready to take on some more weary warriors. I’ve always liked (1) RACING HILL, but you can’t be thrilled with his recent performances despite a win last time out. Perhaps he still has more in the tank but I need to see a big effort to back him at short odds. (8) LYONS SNYDER is capable of a big mile but hasn’t shown it often enough to trust him. (7) CHECK SIX has the ability to win races if none of these brings their best mile; very consistent.

Race 7

(8) SUTTON does his best work on the engine and was strangely raced from off the pace last time. I expect a major correction this week with serious speed from the start. (3) SOUTHWIND FRANK put in his best race in quite some time (with a flat tire) despite losing in the Kentucky Futurity. Perhaps the real Frank is finally back. (2) MARION MARAUDER is hard to fault as the sport’s newest Triple Crown winner; clear player.

Race 8

(7) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE has picked up his game in a big way with Lasix added. This elimination came up soft and I see no reason why she can’t continue her recent success. (5) TORI HANOVER motored home last time versus softer competition. Perhaps this well-bred daughter of Trim Hanover is ready to show her best now. (4) ROCKETTE chased the top choice in her last start and could be doing so once again.

Race 9

(2) BILL’S MAN clearly got into the weaker division. John Butenschoen trainee is moving in the right direction now and only needs to behave to win. (5) JAKE comes into town for a decent trotting barn and has never missed the board. (7) SNOWSTORM HANOVER has early speed and form; very playable.

Race 10

(10) BROADWAY DONNA couldn’t have been any more impressive at Lexington. If she brings anything close to that kind of effort, she can’t lose. (4) EMOTICON HANOVER ships down from Canada off a pair of wins but needs more raw speed to beat the top choice. (6) DOUBLE EXPOSURE hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Deep down I still think she is capable. (8) FLOWERS N SONGS has proven she can play with this group when she brings her A game.

Race 11

(6) BAR HOPPING probably should have done better in Kentucky but I’ll give him a pass since he catches the weaker elimination tonight. (7) DANTE stretches out on the bigger track and is certainly eligible to improve. (5) WINTER HARBOR never got involved last time and now we get a driver change. Perhaps we’ll see different tactics now.

Race 12

(1) BETTING LINE wasn’t as impressive winning his last start. That said, he has proven so much better than the rest of this sophomore pacing crop that you really can’t pick against him. (5) WESTERN FAME has been racing well week after week and offers dangerous early speed. (4) STOLEN GLIMPSE was a highly regarded colt and he finally put it all together with a new lifetime mark at the Red Mile. Perhaps he is finally ready to bloom.

Race 13

(4) BLUE MOON STRIDE gets away from the best of this division and has no excuses. (5) ROCK ME BABY could be dangerous if following live cover behind a quick pace. (7) NEWBORN SASSY is very consistent and certainly looks like a player in here.

Race 14

(6) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE found another gear after setting brutal fractions last time. This guy has serious speed. (3) BOOGIE SHUFFLE has looked good of late but is still a step slower than the top choice. (2) BLOOD LINE can have a say in the outcome with his best effort. (5) WESTERN HILL looks to be as good as any except the top pick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 10/22 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 363 - 1076 / $1,998.60

BEST BETS: 48 - 88 / $158.60

Best Bet: SANTA FE BEACHBOY (12th)

Spot Play: TAKE IT BACK TERRY (5th)


Race 1

(4) THESEYESRCRYING has raced pretty well in all recent efforts and the veteran could be a speed threat in a race full of question marks. (2) IN THE ARSENAL looked ready to break through two back but followed that up with an awful effort; who knows what to expect. (5) FOOL ME ONCE hasn't been at his best recently but he's proven at this level.

Race 2

(3) LORD OF MISRULE just missed in his last two tries at this level and he can be close enough to strike from this spot. (4) MAH SISH N is better than he's been showing and should offer good value. (2) FIERY LUSTRE N had zero excuse last out but that was against better; Bartlett sticks with him.

Race 3

(4) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH always gives a good accounting of himself and could strike late off a hot pace. (5) ROCK ON MOE fired to the lead and was dead-game in victory last week; could certainly repeat. (3) CASIMIR JITTERBUG returns locally off a win at Pocono and he's more than capable with these.

Race 4

(6) BETTOREVER was used really hard trying to secure position last out but had to take back to third anyway then was shuffled and boxed; his prior effort he came up a bit flat but the Bamond trainee has done well versus better in the past and he deserves top billing. (4) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE blew away cheaper two back. (3) OH JONNY B GOOD N drops in class, draws decently enough and could be a closing threat.

Race 5

(3) TAKE IT BACK TERRY went a huge uncovered effort last week when first time Lasix; classy Burke trainee can repeat despite stepping up in class. (7) KEYSTONE VELOCITY was underwhelming in that Invitational last week, his debut for Allard after the high-priced purchase. He can be more involved tonight. (4) THE REAL ONE is very sharp and is proven at this level.

Race 6

(6) NOT AFRAID was used a bit in the early stages last out and came up flat late at odds-on; Takter trainee is arguably best here and the price will be much more attractive tonight. (4) MONROE COUNTY raced very well last week in that added-distance event. (3) DOT DOT DOT DASH was nailed on the wire last out after enjoying a live trip.

Race 7

(3) LUMINOSITY was going nowhere from the back of the pack in the Invitational last week but he was a wire-to-wire winner the start prior; he's got a post edge here on his main rivals. (7) MELADY'S MONET was dead-game last week to be second best to Bee A Magician; problem here is the outside post. (5) MAJOR ATHENS toured the track last week in a needed start and he'll offer some value with Bartlett opting off.

Race 8

(7) ROCK N ROLL WORLD put it all together last week and was a dominating winner; 4-year-old can come right back. (8) BLOOD BROTHER has loads of talent but is stuck outside again and failed to get involved in his last two starts from poor posts. (3) MCARDLES LIGHTNING seems capable at this level.

Race 9

Against better judgment I'm selecting (3) FOILED AGAIN. The old man wasn't as bad as it looked last week, as very few would have overcome that grind into the rated pace. With the right setup he can still get it done. (2) TE KAWAU N raced well at big odds off the layoff and he's a big threat from this spot. (4) RAMPAGE JACKSON is as game as they come but the former basement claimer has his work cut out for him against these tonight.

Race 10

(2) SOMEWHERE FANCY gets needed post relief after closing well from too far back in his last two; Allard trainee looms large from this spot. (1) RONNY BUGATTI drops in class, draws best and is a player. (4) FAMEOUS WESTERN raced well last out versus one notch lesser; he has a shot to hit the ticket.

Race 11

(6) MONEY MAVEN was an easy winner at this level three back with Bartlett driving. (4) ZOOMING has raced much better in his last three; threat. (1) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER could land a share if he minds his manners early.

Race 12

(5) SANTA FE BEACHBOY has looked very good beating lesser in his last two; Banca trainee is sharp enough to take another. (1) SAPPHIRE CITY had no real excuse last week flattening out in the late stages; clearly he's better than that. (2) DREAM OUT LOUD N draws well again and should be close up throughout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 10/22 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 2,3/3/1,2,4,5,7/1,2,4,7/1,4,5 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,4,7/1,4,5/1,3/1,6 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,6/2,3,5/1,3,7/1,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 434 - 1280 / $2265.80 BEST BETS: 69 - 117 / $215.70

SPOT PLAYS: 28 - 117 / $179.10

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (2nd)

Spot Play: DARCEE N (4th)


Race 1

(2) DREAMFAIR MESA had a nightmarish trip last week yet still only lost by less than 3 lengths. He can lay a bit closer here and avoid being parked most of the way; slight nod. (3) JACK RACKHAM is another that can be expected to sit closer to the lead this time, which gives him a much better chance. (5) REDONKULOUS has raced well in every start since shipping east; consider. (6) PERFECT VISTA faces easier here and he should be able to hit the ticket vs. this group.

Race 2

(3) SHAMBALLA is hard to go against here exiting the fastest mile in history - which he himself had a big hand in. He should handle these. (1) EVENIN OF PLEASURE will sit his typical good trip here and take a big share. (2) ELLIS PARK will also probably sit a nice following trip and make the ticket. (6) NICKLE BAG can pass a couple of these late for a slice.

Race 3

(5) MURMUR HANOVER drops to face easier here and he should be right there vs. these leaving from a good post. (7) DIA MONDE trotted a 27 2/5 third 1/4 in the Superfinal which took its toll late. He is sharp and dangerous. (2) LADY PING is capable of passing them all on her best day and she is almost always sent off at a good price. (1) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL should carve out a nice following trip here and take a share.

Race 4

(2) DARCEE N paced his own back 1/2 in 53 2/5 last week and still couldn't threaten the winner, who was taking a new life's mark. He should be able to pass most or all of these late if given a reasonable trip. (7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN drops again and figures, but he needs to avoid going first up. (4) ERLE DALE N won ugly last week, drifting out several lanes down the stretch. I'll play to beat him here. (1) MACH CODE is worth a look coming in off a sharp qualifier. He has raced well off breaks previously.

Race 5

(3) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE should be a bit closer early here, get a solid pace to chase and he should be a square price; slight nod. (4) RISE UP NOW exits a rapid mile where he was on the limb in the second 1/2 with the pace not slowing at all. He can go much better here. (1) DUC DORLEANS is an obvious threat on paper, but how low of a price would you take with him showing a month gap between starts? (6) YORK SEELSTER comes off a sharp win but he will likely find these to be much tougher.

Race 6

(1) CATCH THE DREAM drops, moves inside and stands a good chance to pop here. (3) NAHAR should be right there if he can stay trotting this time. (6) ETRUSCAN HANOVER can get a better trip here and he should be a threat. (8) RUBBER DUCK has been racing well every week for a while. He is another that merits a look and he should bring a good price.

Race 7

(6) BLAYDE HANOVER will likely take a stalking/closing approach here and there should be plenty of speed on early to help his cause; top call. (1) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP figures on the drop but he's missed 5 weeks. Perhaps check how the same trainer does with the #1 horse in race 5 off a similar break. (7) VEGAS ROCKS and (8) AUDREYS DREAM should be winding up from the backfield turning for home and either could get there late if the early pace is fast enough.

Race 8

(1) DREAMY FELLA should beat one or two of these off the gate which will make his task easier this time; top call. (2) MACH POWER had no chance last time when interfered with on the backside. He should rebound here and can take this with a trip. (6) MAYFIELD DUKE is sharp and he gets a better post to work with here; using. (3) BAD GAMER can follow along and take a share, as he usually does.

Race 9

(5) DELIGHTFUL HILL should be a big threat from close range here facing a bit easier. (3) MS MAC N CHEESE looks tough in here too, but she is an infrequent winner that is more apt to take a slice. (2) OUR HOT MAJORETTE may have slowed the pace too much last week which played into the pocket-sitter's hand. She could try to bottom these out this time. (7) STORM POINT should be along late for a share.

Race 10

(1) EASY LOVER HANOVER stands an excellent chance of sitting another perfect pocket trip here so I'll give him the call to repeat. (7) ALEXAS JACKPOT fired a lifetime-best mile last week and he will likely employ the same tactics, but he could set the table for the choice this time around. (3) TRACEUR HANOVER closed like a jet two back to blow by the field like they were all tied to a post in the stretch then raced evenly in the top class. He is another to consider for the late Pick 4. (6) CONTINUAL HANOVER continues to race well and he should grab another share here.

Race 11

(1) SPINFINITI has raced well in both starts here and he should get a good trip here; slight nod in a tough finale. (9) SHADOW MARGEAUX is worth a look at a price here going for Puddy for the first time. (3) SINGLE WHITE SOCK should appreciate the slight class drop and make the ticket here. (4) DIALAMARA will be an early pace presence and he could stick around if he gets a breather at some point. (10) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL figures in this class but post 10 will likely relegate him to a smaller award.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 10/22 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

BEST BETS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: WALNER (1st)

Spot Play: BILL’S MAN (9th)


Race 1

(5) WALNER has proven himself to be the best 2-year-old trotting colt in North America. It will take a mammoth effort from one of his foes or a poor race on his part to lose. (1) DEVIOUS MAN proved game at the Red Mile to continue his long losing streak. We’ll get to see how good he really is against this group. (7) NEW JERSEY VIKING has ability but needs to be a bit faster to win.

Race 2

(8) HUNTSVILLE couldn’t have been more impressive when winning in 1:49 in Kentucky two weeks ago. There is no doubt in my mind that he is the horse to beat for the Crown in this division. (2) OCEAN COLONY was scratched last time with a slight fever. The Jimmy Takter-trained colt has talent and can step up. (5) MCTHRILLER seems to be a step behind the top ones but has form on his side.

Race 3

(5) DARLINONTHEBEACH and (6) PURE COUNTRY are the clear leaders among 3-year-old pacing fillies. I’ll give a slight edge to the former because she has a post edge. (4) CALL ME QUEEN BE has dangerous early speed.

Race 4

(7) ROARING TO GO absolutely loved the big track in Lexington and now gets a chance to carry that success over to The Meadowlands. Art Major-sired filly is fast off the gate and should offer fair value. (8) IDYLLIC BEACH is widely considered to be the divisional leader and deserves plenty of respect. (2) AGENT Q seems to be one of those dangerous tricky horses which follow great and can take you down if you show signs of weakness. (1) BRAZUCA has won four straight and gets tested for class now.

Race 5

(2) ALL THE TIME makes her first start since colic surgery and certainly qualified back strongly. Unless she is odds-on, I’m on board with her on the win end. (5) CAPRICE HILL disappointed in Canada last time but did miss four weeks prior to that start. I’m willing to forgive that effort and assume she’ll be sharper tonight. (8) NON STICK is the New York champion. Let’s see how he does when stretching out on the bigger oval.

Race 6

(5) BOSTON RED ROCKS has recently built up his confidence while taking on weaker foes. Breeders Crown champion from 2015 looks like a fresh horse ready to take on some more weary warriors. I’ve always liked (1) RACING HILL, but you can’t be thrilled with his recent performances despite a win last time out. Perhaps he still has more in the tank but I need to see a big effort to back him at short odds. (8) LYONS SNYDER is capable of a big mile but hasn’t shown it often enough to trust him. (7) CHECK SIX has the ability to win races if none of these brings their best mile; very consistent.

Race 7

(8) SUTTON does his best work on the engine and was strangely raced from off the pace last time. I expect a major correction this week with serious speed from the start. (3) SOUTHWIND FRANK put in his best race in quite some time (with a flat tire) despite losing in the Kentucky Futurity. Perhaps the real Frank is finally back. (2) MARION MARAUDER is hard to fault as the sport’s newest Triple Crown winner; clear player.

Race 8

(7) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE has picked up his game in a big way with Lasix added. This elimination came up soft and I see no reason why she can’t continue her recent success. (5) TORI HANOVER motored home last time versus softer competition. Perhaps this well-bred daughter of Trim Hanover is ready to show her best now. (4) ROCKETTE chased the top choice in her last start and could be doing so once again.

Race 9

(2) BILL’S MAN clearly got into the weaker division. John Butenschoen trainee is moving in the right direction now and only needs to behave to win. (5) JAKE comes into town for a decent trotting barn and has never missed the board. (7) SNOWSTORM HANOVER has early speed and form; very playable.

Race 10

(10) BROADWAY DONNA couldn’t have been any more impressive at Lexington. If she brings anything close to that kind of effort, she can’t lose. (4) EMOTICON HANOVER ships down from Canada off a pair of wins but needs more raw speed to beat the top choice. (6) DOUBLE EXPOSURE hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Deep down I still think she is capable. (8) FLOWERS N SONGS has proven she can play with this group when she brings her A game.

Race 11

(6) BAR HOPPING probably should have done better in Kentucky but I’ll give him a pass since he catches the weaker elimination tonight. (7) DANTE stretches out on the bigger track and is certainly eligible to improve. (5) WINTER HARBOR never got involved last time and now we get a driver change. Perhaps we’ll see different tactics now.

Race 12

(1) BETTING LINE wasn’t as impressive winning his last start. That said, he has proven so much better than the rest of this sophomore pacing crop that you really can’t pick against him. (5) WESTERN FAME has been racing well week after week and offers dangerous early speed. (4) STOLEN GLIMPSE was a highly regarded colt and he finally put it all together with a new lifetime mark at the Red Mile. Perhaps he is finally ready to bloom.

Race 13

(4) BLUE MOON STRIDE gets away from the best of this division and has no excuses. (5) ROCK ME BABY could be dangerous if following live cover behind a quick pace. (7) NEWBORN SASSY is very consistent and certainly looks like a player in here.

Race 14

(6) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE found another gear after setting brutal fractions last time. This guy has serious speed. (3) BOOGIE SHUFFLE has looked good of late but is still a step slower than the top choice. (2) BLOOD LINE can have a say in the outcome with his best effort. (5) WESTERN HILL looks to be as good as any except the top pick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blanton becoming liability in Dodgers' bullpen
By Roger Rubin, The Sports Xchange

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost much more than a pivotal game on Thursday when they were defeated in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series by the Chicago Cubs. They lost one of their biggest weapons in this postseason.
Joe Blanton is not injured. And he won't be fatigued after the off-day on Friday. But after relying on him almost daily to get the Dodgers this far, LA manager Dave Roberts has to think very carefully about using the right-hander out of the bullpen again. He has become predictable and the Cubs know it. That's the worst thing a pitcher can be.
On Thursday night, he came on for the sixth inning -- that early because the Dodgers don't have the pitching to go deep in games like this beyond Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. The series was tied 2-2. The game was tied 1-1. So critical would be understating the circumstances.
He gave up a first-pitch single on a slider to Javier Baez and, after Baez stole second, intentionally walked Jason Heyward. Next up was Addison Russell. Blanton threw a slider for a first-pitch strike and then threw another slider that Russell turned around for a game-changing two-run homer. The Cubs went on to take an 8-1 lead en route to an 8-4 win.
"I knew what was coming," Russell said after the victory at Dodger Stadium.
Of course he did. Blanton has a great slider -- terrific even -- but that's where he goes every time the pitch is crucial. It's gotten to the point that hitters are sitting on it because it is his best pitch.
That's how Game 1 came unraveled for Los Angeles. That, too, was a tied game at 3-3. Ben Zobrist doubled on a changeup to start the frame. Then Blanton threw six straight sliders to get Russell to hit into a full-count groundout to third base. That's when the chess match began where Roberts saw he could get Chicago closer Aroldis Chapman out of the game. Heyward was intentionally walked and Blanton got Baez to fly out on a first-pitch slider. Then, pinch-hitter Chris Coghlan was intentionally walked to bring up Chapman's spot.
Miguel Montero pinch hit with the bases loaded. Blanton threw him three straight sliders.
The first one was fouled off and the second was swinging strike. The third went for a grand slam that gave the game to the Cubs. The next pitch was a Dexter Fowler homer, this time on a curveball; of course how could he throw another slider.
Blanton and the slider? He is a one-trick pony and you can't use that in the playoffs.
Mariano Rivera of the Yankees had one great pitch and he was probably the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history. Rivera was going to throw his cut fastball with all its life and late movement and, for season after season, he threw it and no one did anything with it. Bats were broken. Swings hit nothing. And the wins piled up.
He was special. It's the reason he will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Joe Blanton is a very capable pitcher who has re-invented himself as a reliever and re-sculpted his body to improve himself. He pitched in four of the five division series games and didn't give up a run. But he isn't special like Rivera. Not even close.
Blanton alone cannot be singled out because the Dodgers bullpen that helped them oust the Nationals in the division series has been tagged pretty good in this one. The Cubs are slashing .313/.363/.554 with four homers and seven RBIs against LA relievers in the series. Only closer Kenley Jansen has stood out.
That brings us to the final game or two at Wrigley Field, where the Dodgers arrive down 3-2 in the series and facing elimination. Given the circumstances, it is a best-case scenario for them with ace Kershaw on the mound. The last time he pitched, the Dodgers beat Chicago with his seven strong Game 2 innings and a pair of innings from Jansen. Hill is the Game 7 starter and that is as good as they could hope for if they have a chance to win the pennant on Sunday.
But it remains to be seen if Roberts would dare go to Blanton in a pivotal moment given the way things have gone.
"I think if you look back, he made a couple mistakes in the series and we paid for it," Roberts said. "But as far as fatigue, I think Joe feels great, feels strong, and he'll be the first to tell you that he needs to execute a pitch. So when you look at Game 6, Game 7, I'm not going to shy away from going to Joe."
We shall see.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dodgers (91-71) at Cubs (103-58)
By Jack Magruder, The Sports Xchange

Game: 6
Venue: Wrigley Field
Date: October 22, 2016 8:08 PM EDT

Kershaw in line to save season vs. Cubs in Game 6

CHICAGO -- It was not hard to spot Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw before Game 5 of the NLCS in Dodger Stadium. Uniform pants rolled up to his knees, his preferred look, Kershaw went through his pregame normal work in extra-normal circumstances.

All Kershaw has to do now is save the Dodgers' season.

Three-time NL Cy Young winner Kershaw threw seven shutout innings in Los Angeles' 1-0 Game 2 victory over the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field on Sunday, and with a similar performance in the same place in Game 6 on Saturday could force a Game 7. The Cubs have a 3-2 series edge after winning the last two games.

After pitching three times in six days, including saving the clinching Game 5 of the NLDS at Washington, Kershaw will have an extra day of rest this time.

"It's kind of nice," Kershaw said Thursday. "Haven't had that in a while, so it's good. Should be ready to go.

"I think you do everything you can to try and keep it just like another start at the beginning. Then obviously the magnitude and the situation of the game kind of raises everybody's adrenaline. But trying to keep it the same right now."

The Cubs took a 3-2 edge in the series by winning Games 4 and 5 in Los Angeles, when their somnambulant offense erupted for 18 runs and 26 hits -- 13 hits in each game. Anthony Rizzo homered in Game 4 and Addison Russell had two-run homers in each game to snap playoff skids.

Rizzo had two hits in the first seven postseason games. Russell had one.

A quick repeat matchup normally plays into the hitters' hands, Kershaw said.

"The more you see somebody, the more familiar you get with them," Kershaw said. "I mean, that's true for sure. So I don't think there's anything that you do to counteract it. There's no secrets, anyway, in the game right now. There's so much information. They know every pitch that I throw and every count and every situation. So it's just a matter of not really focusing on that and just trying to compete every single pitch and execute.

"You maybe have a little less margin for error facing them the second time, but just be better, I guess."

The Cubs will advance to their first World Series since 1945 by winning one of the next two games. Game 7 would be Sunday.

Cleveland, which beat Toronto in the ALCS, is in its first World Series since 1948 and awaits the winner of the NLCS.

Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, who opposed Kershaw in Game 2, led the major leagues with a 2.19 ERA this season and is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young this year. Kershaw had a 1.69 ERA in 149 innings, 13 innings short of qualifying for the title after a back injury forced him to miss two months in the middle of the season.

"It's going to be the same environment as last (time), Kershaw again," Hendricks said. "I'm excited in a sense to get another crack at it. It's obviously going to be fun. It should be a close game. It's definitely going to be important. But ... you have to have simple thoughts, take the same approach as you would any other game."

Cubs second baseman Javier Baez, whose three-run double in the eighth inning put the 8-4 Game 5 victory out of reach, is hitting .371 with a homer and seven RBIs in the series. He has the highest batting average of an NL player with as many as 20 postseason at-bats. Kris Bryant is hitting .343 with homer and five RBIs.

Third baseman Justin Turner has had the Dodgers' most production postseason, hitting .313 with a playoff high eight RBIs.

The team that has scored first has won each of the first five games of the series, and Los Angeles was the only team to score in Game 2, when Kershaw threw seven shutout innings and Kenley Jansen retired the final six in only 14 pitches in the 1-0 victory. Adrian Gonzalez's opposite field homer in the second inning was the only score.

"You'd much rather go home under these circumstances than any other, and you want to get it done as quickly as possible," Cubs manager Joe Maddon said.

"It's going to be a formidable event. Our guys will absolutely be ready for the moment, I promise you that."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Divine Cause, 7-2
(5th) Bonita Bianca, 7-2


Charles Town (1st) Forest Night, 4-1
(6th) Noble Prince, 4-1


Delta Downs (3rd) Jonny's Emerald, 4-1
(11th) A P Zapper, 8-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Heavy Hitter, 6-1
(9th) Whitegate, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Sandy's Journey, 6-1
(9th Rob'spepperedride, 5-1


Gulfstream Park West (6th) Ima Tornado, 6-1
(9th) Minute Madness, 7-2


Hawthorne (1st) Name It After Me, 3-1
(9th) Fashionably Late, 3-1


Keeneland (7th) December Seven, 3-1
(10th) Orient Harbor, 5-1


Laurel (4th) Phantom Shot, 9-2
(9th) Rocky Policy, 3-1


Mountaineer (3rd) Boy of Summer, 4-1
(7th) Sheer Talent, 3-1


Parx Racing (1st) Cochita Rich, 9-2
(4th) Happiest Ending, 5-1


Penn National (1st) Win Tuscany, 3-1
(8th) North Forest Star, 9-2


Remington Park (3rd) L. A. Freeway, 8-1
(7th) Malibu Maid, 3-1


Retama Park (1st) L'Argour, 7-2
(8th) Prada's Bling, 3-1


Santa Anita (5th) Sheer Flattery, 4-1
(8th) The Gomper, 8-1


Thistledown (1st) Baba Booey, 7-2
(7th) Kentucky Breeze, 7-2


Woodbine (2nd) Redwin Romp, 6-1
(7th) Empyrea, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

College football trends for this weekend……..

— Ball State is 6-12 in last 18 games as a home underdog.

— Toledo is 16-5-1 vs spread in its last 22 games.

— Northwestern is 5-12 in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Road teams covered 7 of last 9 Wisconsin-Iowa games.

— Texas Tech is 11-6 in last 17 games as a home underdog.

—*Arizona State covered its last six home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

College football trends for this weekend……..

— Ball State is 6-12 in last 18 games as a home underdog.

— Toledo is 16-5-1 vs spread in its last 22 games.

— Northwestern is 5-12 in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Road teams covered 7 of last 9 Wisconsin-Iowa games.

— Texas Tech is 11-6 in last 17 games as a home underdog.

—*Arizona State covered its last six home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: Georgia Southern -13½ Over New Mexico St

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

ALCS

Saturday’s game

Cubs @ Dodgers

Kershaw is 3-1, 2.44 with a save in his last eight games; 4-6, 4.39 in 17 postseason games (13 starts). Dodgers won three of his last four road starts. Kershaw blanked the Cubs for seven innings in his only start against them this season.
Hendricks is 3-2, 2.48 in his last seven starts; Cubs are 2-3 in his last five home starts. He is 0-1, 4.08 in four postseason starts.
Cubs are 6-3 in playoffs this year, 2-1 at home, they’re 7-5 against Los Angeles this season.
Dodgers won four of their last seven games; Roberts is a rookie manager who is 5-5 in the playoffs. Maddon got Tampa Bay to ’08 World Series; he is 23-25 as a manager in the postseason, 10-8 with Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take MEMPHIS -2½ over Navy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Navy Midshipmen + 2 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Middle Tennessee + 7 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick North Carolina -11