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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams

ACC | Pac-12 | Big Ten
2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 5-0 2-0 1-4 1-4
Iowa State 1-5 0-3 4-2 4-2
Kansas 1-4 0-2 2-3 1-4
Kansas State 3-2 1-1 2-3 2-3
Oklahoma 3-2 2-0 1-4 4-1
Oklahoma State 4-2 2-1 3-3 4-2
Texas 2-3 0-2 3-2 4-1
Texas Christian 4-2 2-1 1-5 4-2
Texas Tech 3-2 1-1 4-1 3-2
West Virginia 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2


Kansas State at Oklahoma (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners are carrying the banner for the conference again, one of just two league teams with a 2-0 mark in the Big 12. They face a quality K-State team looking to keep their season afloat. The Wildcats are an impressive 21-9-1 ATS in their past 31 against teams with an overall winning record, and 42-18-1 ATS in their past 61 inside the conference. K-State is also 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Oklahoma has covered seven of the past nine inside the conference, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five in October. However, they're just 1-4 ATS this season and 0-4 ATS in their past four in Norman. The 'over' has connected in seven of the past eight meetings in this series. K-State has covered six of their past seven trips down to Norman, and the road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. Oklahoma is a 10 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

West Virginia at Texas Tech (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)
The Mountaineers are one of three unbeaten teams in Big 12 play, and they put their unblemished record on the line in Lubbock against a dangerous Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite, but they're now short 'dogs at home. Bettors have a lot of confidence in West Virginia, but the Mountaineers are just 1-5 ATS in their past six overall, 1-6 ATS in their past seven on the road and 1-10 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning overall record. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record. Texas Tech has covered five straight conference games, they're 4-1 ATS in their past five in Lubbock and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. However, they're 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record and 5-14 ATS in their past 19 at home against a team with a winning road mark.

Kansas at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Kansas heads down to Waco, and they will be five-touchdown underdogs. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road, going 7-22-1 ATS in their past 30 away from home, and 5-14 ATS in their past 19 games overall. They have also covered just three of their past 13 conference games, too. Baylor has powered past weak opponents in the past, although they're having some difficulty against the lesser teams this season. They're just 1-4 ATS in five outings in 2016, and they have failed to cover in five in a row against teams with a losing overall mark. Baylor is 28-11 ATS in their past 39 at home, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight inside the conference. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series, with the home team 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings in this series.

Iowa State at Texas (Longhorn Network, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State hasn't been winning games, but they're hot against the number with four straight covers. They're also 5-1 ATS in the past six conference battles, while going 7-2 ATS in their past nine following a straight-up loss. The eyes of Texas were smiling earlier in the season with a big win over Notre Dame, but all of that happiness and optimism has been washed away with losses in three straight games against California, Oklahoma State and last weekend against Oklahoma. Suddenly Charlie Strong's seat is heating up again. The Cyclones have covered four of their past five trips to Austin, while the road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Texas opened as a 14-point favorite, and the line is 13 1/2 as of Wednesday AM.

Teams on a bye
Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 7
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 1-4 0-2 2-3 2-3
Indiana 3-2 1-1 3-2 1-4
Iowa 4-2 2-1 2-4 2-4
Maryland 4-1 1-1 2-3 1-4
Michigan 6-0 3-0 4-2 5-1
Michigan State 2-3 0-2 1-4 1-4
Minnesota 3-2 0-2 1-3-1 2-3
Nebraska 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Northwestern 2-3 1-1 2-3 1-4
Ohio State 5-0 2-0 4-1 2-3
Penn State 4-2 2-1 2-3-1 5-1
Purdue 3-2 1-1 2-3 4-1
Rutgers 2-4 0-3 2-4 4-2
Wisconsin 4-1 1-1 4-1 1-4


Ohio State (-10) at Wisconsin - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin - The Badgers are coming off a bye week after losing 14-7 at Michigan the week before. The Wisconsin offense was shut down in that game as they didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground or through the air. It was the first time since October of 2012 that the UW offense was held under 200 total yards.

Wisconsin was hoping to get some key players back with a few weeks off and that may happen. While star LB Vince Biegel will not play in this one, the offensive line is hoping starting guard Jon Dietzen returns. He is currently questionable for the OSU game. His return would be huge as Wisconsin has had to re-shuffle their O-Line moving starting center Michael Dieter to guard with former walk-on Brett Connors starting at center. Connors has been beaten pretty badly in back to back games at MSU and at Michigan which has thwarted UW’s rushing offense (just 96 YPG their last 2) and Dietzen’s return would help improve that.

Wisconsin’s defense will be by far the best OSU has faced this year. The Badgers are allowing only 12.2 PPG this year and have not allowed more than 24 points in the last 17 games. That will be an interesting match up to watch as OSU’s offense has scored 24 points or more in 29 of their last 31 games.

Ohio State - The Bucks had their first “ho-hum” performance of the season last Saturday at home vs Indiana. The Hoosiers have played OSU very tough over the last few seasons and nothing changed last Saturday. The Bucks picked up the 38-17 home win but it wasn’t as easy as the final score might indicate. It was a 24-17 game with under 4:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and still a 31-17 score with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. OSU’s passing attack was non-existent as JT Barrett completed only 9 passes for 93 yards. Coach Urban Meyer called on Barrett to carry the load on the ground however as he 26 carries for 137 yards. QB Barrett had more carries than all of the RB’s combined last week. T

hey came into the game averaging 576 YPG on offense and the new and improved Hoosier defense held them to just 383 yards. OSU’s 5.4 YPP vs Indiana was their lowest output by far this season. Often lost in talk of how potent OSU’s offense is comes that fact that their defense is really good. The defense ranks #2 nationally in PPG allowed at 10.8, #4 nationally in YPG allowed at 264, and they are the ONLY team in the country that has not yet allowed a rushing TD. This defense has now played 22 straight games without allowing an opponent to reach 30 points dating back to the middle of the 2014 season.

Last Year – These two are in opposite divisions in the Big Ten and have not faced each other since the Big Ten Championship game two years ago. OSU crushed Wisconsin 59-0 in that game.

Inside the Numbers – Wisconsin is already 2-0 ATS as a double digit underdog this year (LSU & Michigan) and they are 19-6 ATS their last 25 in that role (76%). The last time the Badgers were a double digit underdog at Camp Randall was way back in 1997. OSU has beaten Wisconsin 7 of the last 8 meetings dating back to 2007. Since the start of the 1980 season, Ohio State had been a road favorite of -10 or more 65 times. They are 61-4 SU in those games and 39-26 ATS (60%).

Northwestern at Michigan State (-4.5) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan State - Oh how quickly things can change. Just a few weeks ago MSU opened -6 hosting a top 10 team in Wisconsin and here, just a few weeks later, Sparty is favored by just 4.5 versus a 2-3 Northwestern team. After last week’s loss at home to BYU, the Spartans come into this game having lost 3 straight games of the first time since 2009 season. Despite their 2-3 record MSU has outgained every opponent but one. That one was BYU who came into East Lansing as an underdog and won outright by 17 points.

It was the third week in a row that Michigan State lost outright as a favorite. Last week Sparty was outgained by almost 200 yards and rushed for just 85 yards on 32 carries. Starting QB Tyler O’Connor threw for just 58 yards and because of the lack of production on offense (only 41 points the last 3 games combined), head coach Mark Dantonio has opened up the QB competition. O’Conner, Damion Terry, and Brian Lewerke are all listed #1 on the depth chart this week.

Defensively they allowed BYU to convert on 10 of their 16 third down attempts.
Getting off the field has been a problem for this defense. In their 3 consecutive losses they’ve allowed their opponents to covered on 26 of 48 third downs. They’ve also accumulated only 5 sacks total in their 5 games this season (last in the Big Ten). MSU took a 7-3 lead into halftime last week but BYU dominated the 2nd half outscoring the Spartans 28-7 scoring TD’s on all four meaningful possessions. The Cougs rolled up 257 yards on the 2nd half alone to just 110 for MSU.

Northwestern - The Cats are coming off a huge win at Iowa two weeks ago. Last week was their bye so this team should be rested and ready to go. The Cats should have the confidence to pick up a win here, not only because of their win at Iowa two weeks ago, but also the fact that Northwestern has won in East Lansing 3 of the last 4 times they’ve visited. The defense finally performed up to par in their 38-31 win over Iowa. While they gave up some points, they held the Hawkeyes to just 283 total yards and just 79 on the ground.

That was quite an accomplishment after Nebraska rolled this defense for 310 yards on the ground just one week earlier. Even with their solid performance at Iowa, the Wildcat defense is still allowing over 400 YPG which is nearly a full 100 yards more than they gave up a year ago. Offensively QB Thorson looks light years better than last season. He’s throwing for 226 YPG where as last year this team threw for only 139 YPG (120th nationally). He’s already thrown for more TD’s this year (8) than he did all of last year (7). The problem has been the running game. They’ve gone from 189 YPG last year to just 126 this season (115th nationally in rushing).

Last Year –These two haven’t met since 2013.

Inside the Numbers – The road team in this Big Ten series has won 8 of the last 9 games outright. Michigan State has won 21 of the last 30 meetings SU dating back to 1980. Since 2000, the favorite in this series has covered just 4 of the 12 meetings. The Wildcats are just 3-13 SU their last 16 with extra prep (off bye or bowl game). Going back to 2007, the Spartans are 9-2-1 ATS when coming off 2 or more consecutive SU losses.

Minnesota at Maryland (-6.5) - (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Maryland - As we had mentioned in past editions, it’s been tough for us to get a read on Maryland as heading into last week they had played one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten (and the country). Last week’s game against a decent Penn State team was easily their toughest test to date. It’s safe to say they didn’t pass that test. The Terps were whipped 38-14 and it wasn’t a “fluky” score as PSU dominated the game racking up 524 yards to just 270 for Maryland. The turtle had put up at least 477 total yards in 3 of their previous 4 games and their lowest output of the year before last week was 373 yards.

The Nittany Lions scored the time of possession by 10 full minutes and ran almost 30 more offensive plays. Maryland QB Perry Hills threw for only 72 yards in the game and was banged around pretty good. He didn’t play in the 2nd half last week and he’s not 100% with a bad shoulder but we’re hearing he’ll probably be good to go on Saturday. The Maryland defense was shredded on the ground last week for 372 yards by a read option team. They face a very similar offense this week and how the 116th rush defense adjusts on Saturday will be a key in this game.

Minnesota - The Gophs were hit hard earlier this week when starting QB Leidner was ruled out of this one due to a concussion. Junior Connor Rhoda will get his first career start in place of Leidner. Rhoda has appeared in 3 games in his career and attempted 2 passes. After last week’s 14-7 home loss to Iowa, the Gophers are now 0-2 in Big Ten play. Iowa scored the winning TD with just 5:28 left in the game and a week earlier Minnesota took PSU to overtime in Happy Valley. They are obviously only a few plays away from sitting 2-0 or 1-1 rather than 0-2.

While the offense is sort of an unknown in this one due to the QB situation, the defense is back to full strength. Last week starting CB Hardin returned from suspension and made an immediate impact with 7 tackles and an interception. However, Minny was still missing a few key players in the defensive backfield that return this week. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel can finally put everyone out there that he originally intended to. "This is the first time since really like the first game that we’ve really had more of our depth at corner like we hoped to," Sawvel said.

Last Year – These two haven’t met on the gridiron since 1977.

Inside the Numbers – After being tabbed as a favorite in just 2 of their first 16 Big Ten games (2014 & 2015), the Terps are favored here for the third time already this season in conference play. Of the last 38 times Maryland has been a home favorite (dating back to 2004), they’ve covered only 13 of those games. Gophs are 9-4 ATS Their last 13 as an underdog coming off an outright loss.

Illinois (-6) at Rutgers - (ESPNews, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers - Can it get any worse for the Scarlet Knights? Just when they thought they might be at least moving in the right direction with a 2-1 non-conference record, they have opened the conference slate 0-3. Not only have they lost those 3 games, they’ve been outscored 150-7 including 136-0 the last two weeks vs Michigan & Ohio State. They’ve been outgained by more than 1,100 yards in their last two games alone. In last week’s 78-0 loss at home to Michigan, the Knights had 2 first downs, 39 total yards, and they were 0 for 17 on 3rd down.

Worse yet, their initial first down of the game came with 9:00 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. They punted 17 times and their longest offensive possession was 5 plays! Rutgers began the game with 15 consecutive 3 and outs and on those 15 possessions they had -15 yards. It wasn’t as if Michigan was rubbing it in offensively to get to nearly 80 points either. In fact, the Wolverines completed only 8 passes the entire game. They basically handed the ball off nearly every play. They scored 78 points on 72 plays. In the second half Michigan ran only 18 plays (15 runs) and scored 35 points. Rutgers is obviously not a good team, but where are they psychologically after those 3 games? That will tell a lot this weekend as they take a BIG step down in competition facing Illinois.

Illinois - The Illini come into this one emotionally wounded after losing at home to Purdue as a 9-point favorite giving the Boilers just their 5th Big Ten road win in their last 25 attempts. Kicker Chase McLaughlin missed his first FG attempt of the season from 41 yards as time expired which would have given Illinois the win. They then proceeded to lose a fumble in OT giving Purdue a chance to simply kick a FG for the win which they did. Illinois did actually outgain Purdue by 40 yards which was the first time this year the Illini have outgained an FBS opponent.

In their 4 games this year vs FBS opponents, Illinois is 0-4. They’ve been outscored 147-80 and outgained 1,781-1,393 in those four games. It’s not often (or ever) you see a team with those numbers favored on the road, much less by nearly a full TD. Starting QB Wes Lunt was knocked out of this game in the 2nd quarter with a back injury after a big hit which also resulted in the roughing the passer call. Lunt did not return and his back up, Chayce Crouch threw for 142 yards and ran for another 137. Lunt was held out of practice early in the week and is questionable for this one. It’s safe to say even if Lunt is ready, the Illini probably have a QB controversy on their hands.

Last Year – These two have not met each other since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. Their most recent meeting was in 2006 with Rutgers winning 33-0.

Inside the Numbers – Illinois is in a role they are simply not accustomed to. Since 2001, they have been a road favorite 16 times covering only 5. More telling is they are just 7-9 SU in those games. Rutgers has lost their last two games ATS by a combined 67 points! Because of that, this line has been drastically adjusted from where it would have been two weeks ago before the Knights faced Ohio State. If these two would have played the opening week of Big Ten play, this game would have been pretty much a pick-em line.

Nebraska (-3) at Indiana (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Indiana - We mentioned IU’s vast improvement on defense this year as they were allowing nearly 100 fewer yards per game this year than they gave up Last Year heading into their game at Ohio State. Last Saturday they held the Buckeyes to 383 yards and just 5.3 YPP in the 38-17 loss. It was the Buckeyes lowest yardage output so far this season. The Hoosiers also held OSU to nearly a full 2 yards per play below their season average which was 7.1 YPP coming into the game. Not bad for a defense that allowed over 500 YPG last season.

While the defense has improved dramatically, the numbers say the IU offense has “slowed down” a bit this year. Last Year they averaged 36 PPG on 504 YPG. This year they are averaging only 26 PPG on 453 YPG. Part of the reason for the drop is Indiana’s red zone struggles. They are just 12 of 18 in the red zone this season which ranks them 124th nationally (out of 128 teams). Last season they ranked 54th nationally in red zone offense which is part of the reason for their higher offensive output in 2015. The banged up offensive line, including potential All American Dan Feeney being out, has also contributed to red zone and short yardage problems.

Nebraska - The Huskers had last week off but there was still some controversy swirling around Lincoln. That’s because Nebraska defensive coordinator accused Indiana of “stealing” defensive signals. Mark Banker was speaking about the challenges his defense would have trying to slow down IU. "What I know about them personally is the fact they do whatever they can to steal defensive signals. So they work at it real hard. So they're going to get your signals and if they don't get them before the game, they get them during the snap, and they actually call the play at the line of scrimmage,” Banker stated this week.

Offensively, the Huskers will be operating without top WR Jordan Westerkamp who is out with a back injury which is a big hit to this offense. One interesting thing to keep an eye on is Nebraska’s defense has been water tight early in games while IU has struggled to get out of the gate offensively. Indiana has scored a grand total of 25 points in the first quarter this season in 5 games. The second quarter has not been as kind with the Hoosiers scoring all of 24 points in that frame as well. The Huskers have given up a grand total of 8 points in the first quarter of games this season but have fallen off in the 2nd quarter allowing 49 points.

Last Year – Believe it or not, the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011 and these two have never met.

Inside the Numbers – The Huskers have won 12 of their 20 Big Ten road games since joining the league in 2011. The Hoosiers were tabbed as a home dog once this year vs Michigan State and won the game outright in OT. However, coming into this season, IU was 1-19 SU the last 20 times they were tabbed a home dog. Going back to 1980, the Hoosiers are just 42-61-1 ATS as a home dog and only 19-85 SU in those games.

Iowa (-12) at Purdue (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue - The Boilers picked up a huge Big Ten road win last Saturday at Illinois. It was just their 5th win in their last 25 conference road games. It looks like they will get a boost this weekend when their top offensive weapon RB Markell Jones returns from an injury. He missed last Saturday’s game. While the running game gets a shot of adrenaline with the return of Jones, the passing game takes a hit with top WR Jones out for year after an injury last week. On defense this team needs to find some way to slow down Iowa’s rushing attack.

Purdue has allowed a ridiculous 711 rushing yards in their 2 Big Ten games. Their pass defense numbers are solid, however that’s because opponents don’t have to go crazy with the pass because PU can’t stop the rush. Their two Big Ten opponents have completed just 23 combined passes but have run the ball a combined 92 times! If the Boilermakers win this one it will be the first time in the Darrell Hazell era they have won back to back games.

Iowa - Despite their 4-2 overall record, the Hawkeyes have to be a bit concerned. They’ve been outgained on the season (-10 YPG) and their offense is struggling scoring 21 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did get a 14-7 win over Minnesota last week, it took a TD with 5:25 remaining to get the tight win. The Iowa offense averaged only 4.4 YPP on the day. A week earlier they lost at home to Northwestern. Even more telling, two weeks ago this Iowa team struggled to beat Rutgers 14-7, the same Rutgers team that has been outscored 136-0 in their two games since.

Much of Iowa’s offensive problems have come due to lack of production is staying on the field after 3rd down. Iowa is one of the worst teams in the country at converting on third down. They convert only 36.7% of the time, good for 89th nationally. However, they are playing into a Purdue defense that hasn’t been good in that area either. The Boilers are the worst team out of 128 in America at getting a third down stop. The Iowa defense has been a little suspect against the run and Purdue is coming off of a great rushing performance. With Jones back in the line up if Purdue has success on the ground they’ll have a shot in this game.

Last Year – Iowa (-23) beat Purdue 40-20 in Iowa City last season. The Boilers actually outgained Iowa by 18 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers – Iowa has been a terrible double digit road favorite going just 1-11 ATS in that role since 2002. They are 0-1 in that spot this year squeaking by Rutgers on the road 14-7 as a 13 point chalk. Purdue is just 7-21-1 SU in this series the last 29 meetings. Coming into last week, the Boilermakers had won only 3 of their last 40 games SU when tabbed as an underdog. A win over Illinois as a puppy last week upped that mark to 4 of their last 41.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: Top teams face tough tests in Week 7
By PATRICK EVERSON

The two teams considered the top national championship contenders are both laying double digits in Week 7 of the college football season - and against respectable teams, no less. Covers talks about the opening lines with John Lester, senior lines manager.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Wisconsin Badgers (+10)

Ohio State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) has been scoring points in buckets this season, but fell off that pace just slightly in Week 6. The Buckeyes beat Indiana 38-17 as massive 28-point favorites in failing to cover for the first time this year.

Wisconsin got a much-needed bye after back-to-back trips to the state of Michigan led to the lone blemish on its record. The Badgers (4-1 SU and ATS) hammered Michigan State 30-6 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 4, but ran out of gas a week later in Ann Arbor in a 14-7 loss to Michigan. But they still cashed as 11.5-point ‘dogs.

Lester sees this as potentially a good spot for the Badgers.

“ESPN’s ‘College GameDay’ is there, coming off an idle week, an underrated and boring offense. This has all the makings of an upset,” Lester said. “We’ll expect most of the public money on Ohio State, while this is a good spot for sharp ‘dog players and the Badgers.”

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers (+10.5)

The Crimson Tide (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) had no problem covering a big number against a ranked team on the road in Week 6. Alabama rolled past No. 17 Arkansas 49-30 laying 14.5 points to remain perfect as it works to defend its national title.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s penchant for good fortune finally came to an end at Texas A&M. The Vols (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) rallied from a two-touchdown deficit in the waning minutes to tie the game at 35, but lost 45-38 in overtime getting 7.5 points.

“Alabama may really expose an overrated Tennessee squad in this matchup,” Lester said. “Everything the Vols do well, the Tide defend better against. We were high on the ‘Bama line last week, and they covered. They get the public support, so we’re high again here.”

North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes (-7)

Miami (4-1 SU and ATS) had its perfect record spoiled on Saturday, losing 20-19 to Florida State as a 1.5-point home chalk. North Carolina (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) had its four-game SU streak end, tumbling 34-3 as a 3-point home pup to Virginia Tech.

“Even though the Hurricanes lost this week, they actually made a good impression in our eyes,” Lester said, while noting Hurricane Matthew wreaked havoc on the Tar Heels’ game. “The conditions certainly didn’t help, but the Tar Heels’ offense looked out of sync without starting running back Elijah Hood, and Miami already has a defense that can make you one-dimensional.”

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5)

Two teams who had high rankings and high promise are now trying to hold on halfway into the 2016 season. Stanford (3-2 SU and ATS) must have still been hung over from its 44-6 loss at Washington in Week 5, because the Cardinal followed with a shocking 42-16 home loss to Washington State as 7.5-point chalk.

And at 2-4 SU and ATS, Notre Dame is circling the drain. The Irish couldn’t overcome North Carolina State nor the lousy hurricane-spawned weather Saturday, losing 10-3 as 2.5-point road ‘dogs.

“This game has certainly lost some luster, given the state of the two teams, but any time Notre Dame is playing, we’ll see a good bit of action,” Lester said.
“Stanford isn’t where it’s been in the past, but it is still a quality team capable of beating the Irish, who seem to be in complete discord.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 7
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 1-4 0-2 2-3 2-3
Indiana 3-2 1-1 3-2 1-4
Iowa 4-2 2-1 2-4 2-4
Maryland 4-1 1-1 2-3 1-4
Michigan 6-0 3-0 4-2 5-1
Michigan State 2-3 0-2 1-4 1-4
Minnesota 3-2 0-2 1-3-1 2-3
Nebraska 5-0 2-0 3-1-1 1-4
Northwestern 2-3 1-1 2-3 1-4
Ohio State 5-0 2-0 4-1 2-3
Penn State 4-2 2-1 2-3-1 5-1
Purdue 3-2 1-1 2-3 4-1
Rutgers 2-4 0-3 2-4 4-2
Wisconsin 4-1 1-1 4-1 1-4


Ohio State (-10) at Wisconsin - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin - The Badgers are coming off a bye week after losing 14-7 at Michigan the week before. The Wisconsin offense was shut down in that game as they didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground or through the air. It was the first time since October of 2012 that the UW offense was held under 200 total yards.

Wisconsin was hoping to get some key players back with a few weeks off and that may happen. While star LB Vince Biegel will not play in this one, the offensive line is hoping starting guard Jon Dietzen returns. He is currently questionable for the OSU game. His return would be huge as Wisconsin has had to re-shuffle their O-Line moving starting center Michael Dieter to guard with former walk-on Brett Connors starting at center. Connors has been beaten pretty badly in back to back games at MSU and at Michigan which has thwarted UW’s rushing offense (just 96 YPG their last 2) and Dietzen’s return would help improve that.

Wisconsin’s defense will be by far the best OSU has faced this year. The Badgers are allowing only 12.2 PPG this year and have not allowed more than 24 points in the last 17 games. That will be an interesting match up to watch as OSU’s offense has scored 24 points or more in 29 of their last 31 games.

Ohio State - The Bucks had their first “ho-hum” performance of the season last Saturday at home vs Indiana. The Hoosiers have played OSU very tough over the last few seasons and nothing changed last Saturday. The Bucks picked up the 38-17 home win but it wasn’t as easy as the final score might indicate. It was a 24-17 game with under 4:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and still a 31-17 score with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. OSU’s passing attack was non-existent as JT Barrett completed only 9 passes for 93 yards. Coach Urban Meyer called on Barrett to carry the load on the ground however as he 26 carries for 137 yards. QB Barrett had more carries than all of the RB’s combined last week. T

hey came into the game averaging 576 YPG on offense and the new and improved Hoosier defense held them to just 383 yards. OSU’s 5.4 YPP vs Indiana was their lowest output by far this season. Often lost in talk of how potent OSU’s offense is comes that fact that their defense is really good. The defense ranks #2 nationally in PPG allowed at 10.8, #4 nationally in YPG allowed at 264, and they are the ONLY team in the country that has not yet allowed a rushing TD. This defense has now played 22 straight games without allowing an opponent to reach 30 points dating back to the middle of the 2014 season.

Last Year – These two are in opposite divisions in the Big Ten and have not faced each other since the Big Ten Championship game two years ago. OSU crushed Wisconsin 59-0 in that game.

Inside the Numbers – Wisconsin is already 2-0 ATS as a double digit underdog this year (LSU & Michigan) and they are 19-6 ATS their last 25 in that role (76%). The last time the Badgers were a double digit underdog at Camp Randall was way back in 1997. OSU has beaten Wisconsin 7 of the last 8 meetings dating back to 2007. Since the start of the 1980 season, Ohio State had been a road favorite of -10 or more 65 times. They are 61-4 SU in those games and 39-26 ATS (60%).

Northwestern at Michigan State (-4.5) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan State - Oh how quickly things can change. Just a few weeks ago MSU opened -6 hosting a top 10 team in Wisconsin and here, just a few weeks later, Sparty is favored by just 4.5 versus a 2-3 Northwestern team. After last week’s loss at home to BYU, the Spartans come into this game having lost 3 straight games of the first time since 2009 season. Despite their 2-3 record MSU has outgained every opponent but one. That one was BYU who came into East Lansing as an underdog and won outright by 17 points.

It was the third week in a row that Michigan State lost outright as a favorite. Last week Sparty was outgained by almost 200 yards and rushed for just 85 yards on 32 carries. Starting QB Tyler O’Connor threw for just 58 yards and because of the lack of production on offense (only 41 points the last 3 games combined), head coach Mark Dantonio has opened up the QB competition. O’Conner, Damion Terry, and Brian Lewerke are all listed #1 on the depth chart this week.

Defensively they allowed BYU to convert on 10 of their 16 third down attempts.
Getting off the field has been a problem for this defense. In their 3 consecutive losses they’ve allowed their opponents to covered on 26 of 48 third downs. They’ve also accumulated only 5 sacks total in their 5 games this season (last in the Big Ten). MSU took a 7-3 lead into halftime last week but BYU dominated the 2nd half outscoring the Spartans 28-7 scoring TD’s on all four meaningful possessions. The Cougs rolled up 257 yards on the 2nd half alone to just 110 for MSU.

Northwestern - The Cats are coming off a huge win at Iowa two weeks ago. Last week was their bye so this team should be rested and ready to go. The Cats should have the confidence to pick up a win here, not only because of their win at Iowa two weeks ago, but also the fact that Northwestern has won in East Lansing 3 of the last 4 times they’ve visited. The defense finally performed up to par in their 38-31 win over Iowa. While they gave up some points, they held the Hawkeyes to just 283 total yards and just 79 on the ground.

That was quite an accomplishment after Nebraska rolled this defense for 310 yards on the ground just one week earlier. Even with their solid performance at Iowa, the Wildcat defense is still allowing over 400 YPG which is nearly a full 100 yards more than they gave up a year ago. Offensively QB Thorson looks light years better than last season. He’s throwing for 226 YPG where as last year this team threw for only 139 YPG (120th nationally). He’s already thrown for more TD’s this year (8) than he did all of last year (7). The problem has been the running game. They’ve gone from 189 YPG last year to just 126 this season (115th nationally in rushing).

Last Year –These two haven’t met since 2013.

Inside the Numbers – The road team in this Big Ten series has won 8 of the last 9 games outright. Michigan State has won 21 of the last 30 meetings SU dating back to 1980. Since 2000, the favorite in this series has covered just 4 of the 12 meetings. The Wildcats are just 3-13 SU their last 16 with extra prep (off bye or bowl game). Going back to 2007, the Spartans are 9-2-1 ATS when coming off 2 or more consecutive SU losses.

Minnesota at Maryland (-6.5) - (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Maryland - As we had mentioned in past editions, it’s been tough for us to get a read on Maryland as heading into last week they had played one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten (and the country). Last week’s game against a decent Penn State team was easily their toughest test to date. It’s safe to say they didn’t pass that test. The Terps were whipped 38-14 and it wasn’t a “fluky” score as PSU dominated the game racking up 524 yards to just 270 for Maryland. The turtle had put up at least 477 total yards in 3 of their previous 4 games and their lowest output of the year before last week was 373 yards.

The Nittany Lions scored the time of possession by 10 full minutes and ran almost 30 more offensive plays. Maryland QB Perry Hills threw for only 72 yards in the game and was banged around pretty good. He didn’t play in the 2nd half last week and he’s not 100% with a bad shoulder but we’re hearing he’ll probably be good to go on Saturday. The Maryland defense was shredded on the ground last week for 372 yards by a read option team. They face a very similar offense this week and how the 116th rush defense adjusts on Saturday will be a key in this game.

Minnesota - The Gophs were hit hard earlier this week when starting QB Leidner was ruled out of this one due to a concussion. Junior Connor Rhoda will get his first career start in place of Leidner. Rhoda has appeared in 3 games in his career and attempted 2 passes. After last week’s 14-7 home loss to Iowa, the Gophers are now 0-2 in Big Ten play. Iowa scored the winning TD with just 5:28 left in the game and a week earlier Minnesota took PSU to overtime in Happy Valley. They are obviously only a few plays away from sitting 2-0 or 1-1 rather than 0-2.

While the offense is sort of an unknown in this one due to the QB situation, the defense is back to full strength. Last week starting CB Hardin returned from suspension and made an immediate impact with 7 tackles and an interception. However, Minny was still missing a few key players in the defensive backfield that return this week. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel can finally put everyone out there that he originally intended to. "This is the first time since really like the first game that we’ve really had more of our depth at corner like we hoped to," Sawvel said.

Last Year – These two haven’t met on the gridiron since 1977.

Inside the Numbers – After being tabbed as a favorite in just 2 of their first 16 Big Ten games (2014 & 2015), the Terps are favored here for the third time already this season in conference play. Of the last 38 times Maryland has been a home favorite (dating back to 2004), they’ve covered only 13 of those games. Gophs are 9-4 ATS Their last 13 as an underdog coming off an outright loss.

Illinois (-6) at Rutgers - (ESPNews, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers - Can it get any worse for the Scarlet Knights? Just when they thought they might be at least moving in the right direction with a 2-1 non-conference record, they have opened the conference slate 0-3. Not only have they lost those 3 games, they’ve been outscored 150-7 including 136-0 the last two weeks vs Michigan & Ohio State. They’ve been outgained by more than 1,100 yards in their last two games alone. In last week’s 78-0 loss at home to Michigan, the Knights had 2 first downs, 39 total yards, and they were 0 for 17 on 3rd down.

Worse yet, their initial first down of the game came with 9:00 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. They punted 17 times and their longest offensive possession was 5 plays! Rutgers began the game with 15 consecutive 3 and outs and on those 15 possessions they had -15 yards. It wasn’t as if Michigan was rubbing it in offensively to get to nearly 80 points either. In fact, the Wolverines completed only 8 passes the entire game. They basically handed the ball off nearly every play. They scored 78 points on 72 plays. In the second half Michigan ran only 18 plays (15 runs) and scored 35 points. Rutgers is obviously not a good team, but where are they psychologically after those 3 games? That will tell a lot this weekend as they take a BIG step down in competition facing Illinois.

Illinois - The Illini come into this one emotionally wounded after losing at home to Purdue as a 9-point favorite giving the Boilers just their 5th Big Ten road win in their last 25 attempts. Kicker Chase McLaughlin missed his first FG attempt of the season from 41 yards as time expired which would have given Illinois the win. They then proceeded to lose a fumble in OT giving Purdue a chance to simply kick a FG for the win which they did. Illinois did actually outgain Purdue by 40 yards which was the first time this year the Illini have outgained an FBS opponent.

In their 4 games this year vs FBS opponents, Illinois is 0-4. They’ve been outscored 147-80 and outgained 1,781-1,393 in those four games. It’s not often (or ever) you see a team with those numbers favored on the road, much less by nearly a full TD. Starting QB Wes Lunt was knocked out of this game in the 2nd quarter with a back injury after a big hit which also resulted in the roughing the passer call. Lunt did not return and his back up, Chayce Crouch threw for 142 yards and ran for another 137. Lunt was held out of practice early in the week and is questionable for this one. It’s safe to say even if Lunt is ready, the Illini probably have a QB controversy on their hands.

Last Year – These two have not met each other since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. Their most recent meeting was in 2006 with Rutgers winning 33-0.

Inside the Numbers – Illinois is in a role they are simply not accustomed to. Since 2001, they have been a road favorite 16 times covering only 5. More telling is they are just 7-9 SU in those games. Rutgers has lost their last two games ATS by a combined 67 points! Because of that, this line has been drastically adjusted from where it would have been two weeks ago before the Knights faced Ohio State. If these two would have played the opening week of Big Ten play, this game would have been pretty much a pick-em line.

Nebraska (-3) at Indiana (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Indiana - We mentioned IU’s vast improvement on defense this year as they were allowing nearly 100 fewer yards per game this year than they gave up Last Year heading into their game at Ohio State. Last Saturday they held the Buckeyes to 383 yards and just 5.3 YPP in the 38-17 loss. It was the Buckeyes lowest yardage output so far this season. The Hoosiers also held OSU to nearly a full 2 yards per play below their season average which was 7.1 YPP coming into the game. Not bad for a defense that allowed over 500 YPG last season.

While the defense has improved dramatically, the numbers say the IU offense has “slowed down” a bit this year. Last Year they averaged 36 PPG on 504 YPG. This year they are averaging only 26 PPG on 453 YPG. Part of the reason for the drop is Indiana’s red zone struggles. They are just 12 of 18 in the red zone this season which ranks them 124th nationally (out of 128 teams). Last season they ranked 54th nationally in red zone offense which is part of the reason for their higher offensive output in 2015. The banged up offensive line, including potential All American Dan Feeney being out, has also contributed to red zone and short yardage problems.

Nebraska - The Huskers had last week off but there was still some controversy swirling around Lincoln. That’s because Nebraska defensive coordinator accused Indiana of “stealing” defensive signals. Mark Banker was speaking about the challenges his defense would have trying to slow down IU. "What I know about them personally is the fact they do whatever they can to steal defensive signals. So they work at it real hard. So they're going to get your signals and if they don't get them before the game, they get them during the snap, and they actually call the play at the line of scrimmage,” Banker stated this week.

Offensively, the Huskers will be operating without top WR Jordan Westerkamp who is out with a back injury which is a big hit to this offense. One interesting thing to keep an eye on is Nebraska’s defense has been water tight early in games while IU has struggled to get out of the gate offensively. Indiana has scored a grand total of 25 points in the first quarter this season in 5 games. The second quarter has not been as kind with the Hoosiers scoring all of 24 points in that frame as well. The Huskers have given up a grand total of 8 points in the first quarter of games this season but have fallen off in the 2nd quarter allowing 49 points.

Last Year – Believe it or not, the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011 and these two have never met.

Inside the Numbers – The Huskers have won 12 of their 20 Big Ten road games since joining the league in 2011. The Hoosiers were tabbed as a home dog once this year vs Michigan State and won the game outright in OT. However, coming into this season, IU was 1-19 SU the last 20 times they were tabbed a home dog. Going back to 1980, the Hoosiers are just 42-61-1 ATS as a home dog and only 19-85 SU in those games.

Iowa (-12) at Purdue (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue - The Boilers picked up a huge Big Ten road win last Saturday at Illinois. It was just their 5th win in their last 25 conference road games. It looks like they will get a boost this weekend when their top offensive weapon RB Markell Jones returns from an injury. He missed last Saturday’s game. While the running game gets a shot of adrenaline with the return of Jones, the passing game takes a hit with top WR Jones out for year after an injury last week. On defense this team needs to find some way to slow down Iowa’s rushing attack.

Purdue has allowed a ridiculous 711 rushing yards in their 2 Big Ten games. Their pass defense numbers are solid, however that’s because opponents don’t have to go crazy with the pass because PU can’t stop the rush. Their two Big Ten opponents have completed just 23 combined passes but have run the ball a combined 92 times! If the Boilermakers win this one it will be the first time in the Darrell Hazell era they have won back to back games.

Iowa - Despite their 4-2 overall record, the Hawkeyes have to be a bit concerned. They’ve been outgained on the season (-10 YPG) and their offense is struggling scoring 21 or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. While they did get a 14-7 win over Minnesota last week, it took a TD with 5:25 remaining to get the tight win. The Iowa offense averaged only 4.4 YPP on the day. A week earlier they lost at home to Northwestern. Even more telling, two weeks ago this Iowa team struggled to beat Rutgers 14-7, the same Rutgers team that has been outscored 136-0 in their two games since.

Much of Iowa’s offensive problems have come due to lack of production is staying on the field after 3rd down. Iowa is one of the worst teams in the country at converting on third down. They convert only 36.7% of the time, good for 89th nationally. However, they are playing into a Purdue defense that hasn’t been good in that area either. The Boilers are the worst team out of 128 in America at getting a third down stop. The Iowa defense has been a little suspect against the run and Purdue is coming off of a great rushing performance. With Jones back in the line up if Purdue has success on the ground they’ll have a shot in this game.

Last Year – Iowa (-23) beat Purdue 40-20 in Iowa City last season. The Boilers actually outgained Iowa by 18 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers – Iowa has been a terrible double digit road favorite going just 1-11 ATS in that role since 2002. They are 0-1 in that spot this year squeaking by Rutgers on the road 14-7 as a 13 point chalk. Purdue is just 7-21-1 SU in this series the last 29 meetings. Coming into last week, the Boilermakers had won only 3 of their last 40 games SU when tabbed as an underdog. A win over Illinois as a puppy last week upped that mark to 4 of their last 41.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 7
By Marcus DiNitto

No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Ohio State appear to be far-and-away the best two college football teams in the country and destined to meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the national championship on January 9.

“Alabama and Ohio State just look like they’re on a collision course right now,” said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

The Crimson Tide and Buckeyes are in similar situations in Week 7 – laying double digits on the road against feisty conference opponents. Alabama visits Tennessee on Saturday, while Ohio State is at Wisconsin. We picked the brains of two Las Vegas bookmakers – Salmons and the Wynn’s John Avello – about these two contests and what else they’re looking out for this week in college football.

Ohio State (-10) at Wisconsin

Avello, whose shop is the first in Las Vegas each week to post college football betting lines, opened Ohio State -10 and moved to -11 later Sunday night after taking a limit-bet on the Buckeyes. Despite that early move, he anticipates sharps taking the points, and sure enough, he tweaked the line downward to 10.5 as we spoke shortly before noon ET on Monday and down to -10 shortly thereafter.

“I think this number will be coming down,”Avello said. “I think the wiseguys will most likely take a shot on the dog.”

While Salmons believes this year’s version of Ohio State is far better than last year’s, Avello advises not to dismiss the Badgers.

“I like the Wisconsin team. I think it’s a really good football team,” he said. “Maybe they didn’t get enough credit at the beginning of the year.

“When you play a team like Michigan that’s basically scoring at will against their opponents, and you hold a team like that to 14 points when everybody else is getting slaughtered, that shows the Wisconsin defense is pretty good,” he added.

Coming off a bye week and playing at home figure to help Wisconsin’s cause

“I think this is a tough, tough battle for Ohio State,” said Avello.

Alabama at Tennessee

Tennessee came up short in overtime at Texas A&M last week, but the Vols’ resilience paid off for their backers. They were down by 21 points in the third quarter, but fought back to get the cash as 8-point underdogs in the 45-38 loss.

There are several factors that do not bode well for Tennessee this spot, though: its tendency to start slow, injuries and a brutal stretch of schedule.

Salmons believes the Vols’ bubble may be about to burst.

“I give Tennessee credit,” Salmons said. “I don’t know how they keep going on with these injuries they keep taking on. It’s just unbelievable. Every week, it’s guy after guy after guy they keep losing."

Over the last four weeks, Tennessee has played Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and now home against ‘Bama. How long can they keep hanging in there?

“This is one of the hardest stretch of schedules that any team could ever go through,” Salmons said “… You’ve got to say something about their perseverance, but some week they’re going to crack.”

The Vols’ M.O. this week could get them into the kind of trouble they can’t get out of.

“Tennessee seems to be slow starters and they pick it up in the second half,” Avello said. “That’s not a good way to play against this team.”

The status of running back Jalen Hurd is of particular importance to this matchup, added Avello.

“Without him, their chances are minimal; with him, I give them a puncher’s chance,” he said.

The Wynn’s opening number of Alabama -10 looked cheap to early bettors, who laid it up to -12 by Monday morning. In fact, the Westgate was dealing -13 on Monday.

Around the nation

Stanford at Notre Dame (-2.5)

This rivalry game has lost much of its luster with both teams mired in slumps. The Irish were bet from -1.5 to -2.5 at the Wynn, and the Westgate’s Salmons thinks the matchup plays into ND’s hands.

“It’s a game that seems to fit Notre Dame, because they can’t play any defense and Stanford’s really not that great of an offensive team, so they shouldn’t get too burned on defense,” Salmons said “And they can score against anyone. If (starting CBs Alijah Holder and Quentin Meeks) don’t play this game, then Notre Dame’s going to score a lot of points on them, so I can understand that move.”

Salmons said while Christian McCaffrey, who left the Cardinal’s game against Washington State on Saturday, is worth 2 or 2.5 points to the betting line, the cornerback situation is more important to this game.

North Carolina at Miami (-7)

Here’s another game that has lost plenty of its luster, as both ACC teams were defeated last week. UNC may have a harder time recovering from its 34-3 loss at home to Virginia Tech than Miami will from its 20-19 home loss to Florida State.

“I was disappointed with North Carolina last week,” Avello said. “The quarterback was getting all this ink and talk that he should be in the Heisman mix, and his team plays Virginia Tech at home and absolutely gets buried. A game like that will take the air out of you.”

He added, “I think advantage Miami on this one. I think Miami finds a way to bounce back, but I don’t know what to think about North Carolina after that loss. That was just a terrible game.”

N.C. State at Clemson (-17)

Salmons is particularly interested in watching this game, as he wants to see how good N.C. State is. We discussed in this space last week that the Wolfpack have a hard time when stepping up in class and their remaining schedule looks daunting. But this season, one influential category of bettors is high on N.C. State.

“This is a game I have a lot interest in watching to see how far N.C. State’s come,” Salmons said. “The computer groups really like N.C State. All their numbers keep going up toward N.C. State.”

Early line moves

Here are Week 7 games whose point spreads have moved at least 2 points in the favorite’s direction in the first 20 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Duke vs. Louisville
Open line: Louisville -30.5
After 20 hours: Louisville -33

Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Open line: Toledo -22
After 20 hours: Toledo -27.5

UConn vs. South Florida
Open line: USF -17
After 20 hours: USF -19.5

Georgia Southern vs. Georgia Tech
Open line: Ga. Tech -9
After 20 hours: Ga. Tech -11

UT-San Antonio vs. Rice
Open line: Rice -1
After 20 hours: Rice -3

Alabama vs. Tennessee
Open line: Alabama -10
After 20 hours: Alabama -12

Texas State vs. UL-Monroe
Open line: UL-Monroe -4
After 20 hours: UL-Monroe -7.5

Here are Week 7 games whose point spreads have moved at least 2 points in the underdog’s direction in the first 20 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Appalachian State vs. UL-Lafayette
Open line: App State -12.5
After 20 hours: App State -10

San Diego State vs. Fresno State
Open line: San Diego State -18.5
After 20 hours: San Diego State -16

Nebraska vs. Indiana
Open line: Nebraska -7
After 20 hours: Nebraska -5

Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Open line: FSU -24.5
After 20 hours: FSU -22.5

Utah vs. Oregon State
Open line: Utah -13.5
After 20 hours: Utah -10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 7 college football games
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+21) at Florida State Seminoles

This line briefly opened +23.5 with most other books opening +22.5 and then was quickly bet down to the key number of +21. Wake Forest remains an underrated team this season, going 5-1 SU in Dave Clawson's third season as the head coach. The Demon Deacons played Florida State tough last season, only losing 24-16 as a 19-point home underdog. Wake Forest held a 27-14 first down edge and 357-329 total yards advantage in that game.

This is a bad scheduling spot for Florida State as they are coming off two close and hard fought games. The Seminoles lost a high-scoring 37-37 shootout versus North Carolina, but then bounced back for a 20-19 road underdog win against rival Miami Florida last week. The Seminoles will likely overlook this game versus Wake Forest this week, especially with a bye week and then Clemson on deck.

Spread to wait on

Iowa State Cyclones (+13.5) at Texas Longhorns

This line opened +14, but was quickly bet down to +13.5. Wait as the key number of +14 might show up once again if the public pushes this line back up later in the week. Iowa State's offense is heating up and has scored 44, 42, and 31 points in their past three games after scoring just 20, 3, and 20 points in the first three games of the season. The Cyclones should have continued success against a struggling Texas defense that has allowed 39.6 points and 477 total yards per game (6.4 yards per play) this year.

The Longhorns had high hopes this season after their 2-0 SU/ATS start which included an important home win versus Notre Dame. However, Texas has since gone 0-3 SU in their past three games which includes a close 45-40 loss versus rival Oklahoma last week. That high-scoring loss will likely leave the Longhorns flat this week, especially as a double-digit favorite after just being a double-digit underdog last week.

Total to watch

West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders (83)

This total briefly opened at 80.5 as was quickly bet up to the current number of 83 which is where most other sportsbooks opened the line. This is a very high total and for good reason as Texas Tech likes to play fast, scoring at least 55 points or more offensively in four of their five games this season. Overall, the Red Raiders are averaging 650 total yards per game and 7.7 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 485 yards and 6.3 yppl).

West Virginia is coming off a bye week after their low-scoring 17-16 win versus Kansas State, but the Mountaineers should have more offensive success this week against a poor Texas Tech defense. The Red Raiders have allowed 38.6 points and 445 total yards per game this season, including permitting 68, 45, and 44 points against the three decent opponents that Texas Tech has faced this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Week 7 pointspread picks and predictions
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Remember back at the beginning of this year’s college football season when Washington State followed up a shocking 45-42 home defeat to Eastern Washington with a 31-28 loss at Boise State to start what was supposed to be a promising season 0-2?

Yeah, those days are long, long gone.

In the aftermath of that horrific start, Cougars head coach Mike Leach and quarterback Luke Falk have absolutely shredded the opposition with victories over Idaho, Oregon and Stanford coming by an average of 31.3 points per game. More impressively, Washington State hammered the Ducks by 18 points as 2.5-point underdogs and thrashed David Shaw’s Cardinal program by 26 points as 7.5-point underdogs.

But perhaps what’s worthy of the most recognition here is the fact that Leach and the Cougars have now covered the spread in 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season.

As it relates to this Saturday, Washington State’s next opponent takes the form of the UCLA Bruins, who are just 1-7 ATS over their last eight games overall, with five straight ATS losses when assuming the underdog role. Jim Mora Jr.’s Bruins are now an underwhelming 3-3 SU on the season and 7-24 ATS over the program’s last 31 games played in the month of October.

Oh, and it might be worth noting that UCLA is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against Washington State and 1-7 ATS over their last eight trips to Pullman.

Pick: Washington State -6.5


Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers

When: Saturday, October 15 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Pittsburgh -3

This is a terrific situation for head coach Bronco Mendenhall and his Cavaliers due to a variety of reasons. First, it’s homecoming at the University of Virginia and the Cavs are coming off a bye week. On the flip side, Pittsburgh went down to the wire with Georgia Tech in a 37-34 victory last Saturday and is set to enter a three-week stretch of high profile battles against Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson following Saturday’s showdown with Virginia, making this a classic “look ahead” spot for the Panthers.

As if the situation alone wasn’t enough to tickle your fancy, I’m sure we can seal the deal with the following information: Virginia has covered the number in four straight games while Mendenhall is 16-7 ATS over his last 23 games coached between BYU and Virginia when assuming the underdog role. Not only that, but note that Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS over its last ten games as a favorite under head coach Pat Narduzzi.

For a Panthers defense that has surrendered an average of 36.4 points per game over its last five outings, this ACC showdown has “upset special” written all over it.

Pick: Virginia +3


North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes

When: Saturday, October 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Miami -7.5

After a perfect 4-0 start to the Mark Richt era in Miami, the Hurricanes flopped during the second half of their first real test of the season by blowing a 13-3 lead en route to a 20-19 home loss to Florida State that saw a blocked extra point in the final moments make the difference. That was Miami’s seventh straight loss to archrival Florida State and based on the manner in which it happened, there could be a nasty hangover in store for the Hurricanes, especially when you consider that this program has a road date at Virginia Tech next Thursday followed by a trip to Notre Dame to face the Fighting Irish the following weekend.

As for North Carolina, expect a more buttoned-up effort from head coach Larry Fedora, who inexplicably threw the ball 33 times (vs. 29 rushing attempts) in horrific conditions last week against Virginia Tech in a 34-3 defeat. Yes, the Tar Heels needed to throw late in an effort to catch up, but North Carolina trailed just 6-0 after 15 minutes and 13-3 at the half, all while throwing the ball far too often in a downpour.

Be advised that North Carolina is 6-1 ATS over their last seven games following an against the spread loss and 6-2 ATS over their last eight road dates against teams with a winning home record. In addition, the underdog in this series is 8-3-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings between these two programs.

Pick: North Carolina +7.5


UNLV Rebels at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

When: Saturday, October 15 at 11:59 p.m. ET
Spread: Hawaii -9

After averaging an abysmal 2.7 wins per season from 2012-2015, the Rainbow Warriors finally have something cooking thanks to three victories over the program’s last four outings under first-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Not only is Hawaii flying high at the moment, but the offense is averaging a rock-solid 35.3 points per game over its last four contests while the team itself has covered the point spread in four of its last five matchups.

The Rebels are also under the guidance of a first-year head coach in former Bishop Gorman boss Tony Sanchez, but the early results have been underwhelming at best, with UNLV currently standing at 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS while riding four losses over the school’s last five outings. In addition, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS over their last six road dates.

Take note that the early action has pounded Hawaii from a 4.5-point favorite to a 9-point favorite. Further, be advised that the host school has won seven straight encounters in this series. After traveling to Northern California for a date with San Jose State last Saturday (34-17 win) and with another lengthy travel spot on deck next week against Air Force, look for Hawaii to take full advantage of the friendly confines of Aloha Stadium this Saturday night.

Pick: Hawaii -9

Last week: 3-1 ATS
Season: 14-10 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Week 7 pointspread picks and predictions
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Remember back at the beginning of this year’s college football season when Washington State followed up a shocking 45-42 home defeat to Eastern Washington with a 31-28 loss at Boise State to start what was supposed to be a promising season 0-2?

Yeah, those days are long, long gone.

In the aftermath of that horrific start, Cougars head coach Mike Leach and quarterback Luke Falk have absolutely shredded the opposition with victories over Idaho, Oregon and Stanford coming by an average of 31.3 points per game. More impressively, Washington State hammered the Ducks by 18 points as 2.5-point underdogs and thrashed David Shaw’s Cardinal program by 26 points as 7.5-point underdogs.

But perhaps what’s worthy of the most recognition here is the fact that Leach and the Cougars have now covered the spread in 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season.

As it relates to this Saturday, Washington State’s next opponent takes the form of the UCLA Bruins, who are just 1-7 ATS over their last eight games overall, with five straight ATS losses when assuming the underdog role. Jim Mora Jr.’s Bruins are now an underwhelming 3-3 SU on the season and 7-24 ATS over the program’s last 31 games played in the month of October.

Oh, and it might be worth noting that UCLA is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against Washington State and 1-7 ATS over their last eight trips to Pullman.

Pick: Washington State -6.5


Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers

When: Saturday, October 15 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Pittsburgh -3

This is a terrific situation for head coach Bronco Mendenhall and his Cavaliers due to a variety of reasons. First, it’s homecoming at the University of Virginia and the Cavs are coming off a bye week. On the flip side, Pittsburgh went down to the wire with Georgia Tech in a 37-34 victory last Saturday and is set to enter a three-week stretch of high profile battles against Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson following Saturday’s showdown with Virginia, making this a classic “look ahead” spot for the Panthers.

As if the situation alone wasn’t enough to tickle your fancy, I’m sure we can seal the deal with the following information: Virginia has covered the number in four straight games while Mendenhall is 16-7 ATS over his last 23 games coached between BYU and Virginia when assuming the underdog role. Not only that, but note that Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS over its last ten games as a favorite under head coach Pat Narduzzi.

For a Panthers defense that has surrendered an average of 36.4 points per game over its last five outings, this ACC showdown has “upset special” written all over it.

Pick: Virginia +3


North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes

When: Saturday, October 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Miami -7.5

After a perfect 4-0 start to the Mark Richt era in Miami, the Hurricanes flopped during the second half of their first real test of the season by blowing a 13-3 lead en route to a 20-19 home loss to Florida State that saw a blocked extra point in the final moments make the difference. That was Miami’s seventh straight loss to archrival Florida State and based on the manner in which it happened, there could be a nasty hangover in store for the Hurricanes, especially when you consider that this program has a road date at Virginia Tech next Thursday followed by a trip to Notre Dame to face the Fighting Irish the following weekend.

As for North Carolina, expect a more buttoned-up effort from head coach Larry Fedora, who inexplicably threw the ball 33 times (vs. 29 rushing attempts) in horrific conditions last week against Virginia Tech in a 34-3 defeat. Yes, the Tar Heels needed to throw late in an effort to catch up, but North Carolina trailed just 6-0 after 15 minutes and 13-3 at the half, all while throwing the ball far too often in a downpour.

Be advised that North Carolina is 6-1 ATS over their last seven games following an against the spread loss and 6-2 ATS over their last eight road dates against teams with a winning home record. In addition, the underdog in this series is 8-3-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings between these two programs.

Pick: North Carolina +7.5


UNLV Rebels at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

When: Saturday, October 15 at 11:59 p.m. ET
Spread: Hawaii -9

After averaging an abysmal 2.7 wins per season from 2012-2015, the Rainbow Warriors finally have something cooking thanks to three victories over the program’s last four outings under first-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Not only is Hawaii flying high at the moment, but the offense is averaging a rock-solid 35.3 points per game over its last four contests while the team itself has covered the point spread in four of its last five matchups.

The Rebels are also under the guidance of a first-year head coach in former Bishop Gorman boss Tony Sanchez, but the early results have been underwhelming at best, with UNLV currently standing at 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS while riding four losses over the school’s last five outings. In addition, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS over their last six road dates.

Take note that the early action has pounded Hawaii from a 4.5-point favorite to a 9-point favorite. Further, be advised that the host school has won seven straight encounters in this series. After traveling to Northern California for a date with San Jose State last Saturday (34-17 win) and with another lengthy travel spot on deck next week against Air Force, look for Hawaii to take full advantage of the friendly confines of Aloha Stadium this Saturday night.

Pick: Hawaii -9

Last week: 3-1 ATS
Season: 14-10 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 7

College Football Week 7 Ranked Underdogs with a Chance

Well all eyes will likely be on the Alabama/Tennessee and Ohio State/Wisconsin games in college football this weekend as the Top Two teams in the nation have tough road tests, there are a couple of other underdogs bettors should be aware of. These underdogs have a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset, but grabbing the points isn't a bad option either.

Underdog #1: Arkansas +7.5

Arkansas has got their own ranked vs ranked game this week as they host the 13th ranked Ole Miss program as a touchdown home underdog. The Razorbacks were beat down by Alabama last week to go 0-2 SU and ATS in SEC play and are in desperation mode for a conference victory this week.

Even with Ole Miss coming off a bye week, desperate home teams getting this many points tend to be a strong wager, especially when the balance of their season lies on the result.

Ole Miss did have that extra week to prepare for this one, but what is concerning is the fact that this will be their first true road game of the season, and the first time they've been away from home since Week 1 of the season.

The Rebels have put up 40+ in each of their last three games and gone 3-0 ATS because of that, but their last trip to Arkansas two years ago saw them get blanked (30-0), and they are actually 0-3 ATS the past three years against the Razorbacks.

Last year's game in Mississippi had the Rebels as the same -7.5 point favorites, but at home, and the game ended up going to OT where Arkansas escaped with a one-point victory.

This game has all the makings of being another close one between these two rivals, especially when Ole Miss is on a 1-5 ATS run as SEC road favorites of 17 or less.

Underdog #2: Indiana +3.5

Indiana is another home underdog looking to knock off a ranked foe as the 5-0 SU (3-1-1 ATS) Nebraska Cornhuskers come to town off a week of rest as well. This game has a lot of the same situational aspects applying to it that the Ole Miss/Arkansas game does above, and that's why I strongly believe it's primed for an upset as well.

For starters, Nebraska is a ranked team that is unbeaten on the year and laying points on the road after a week off. They've had extra time to prepare for this one and just watched Indiana lose by 21 points @ Ohio State last week (similar to Arkansas losing to Alabama a week ago).

The Cornhuskers have to be confident in their chances, but this is also only their 2nd true road game of the season and that can bring some problems.

What may be the most concerning for those considering Nebraska in this game is the fact that in the last 35 seasons, any CFB team that's 5-0 SU and on the road after a bye week are just 22-45 ATS no matter the spread. That has to be a concerning number on that side of the coin, but it's a very positive one as to why the Hoosiers are a solid play this weekend.

Indiana knows they are a better team then they showed at times vs. Ohio State last week, and it's tough games like that against the elite competition in this league that often make a middling team like Indiana stronger going forward. The Hoosiers have the offensive firepower to continually keep the pressure on Nebraska here and should come away with the outright victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams

ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-4 0-3 1-5 4-2
Arizona State 5-1 2-1 4-2 3-3
California 3-3 1-2 3-3 5-1
Colorado 4-2 2-1 6-0 3-3
Oregon 2-4 0-3 0-5-1 4-2
Oregon State 2-3 1-1 3-2 2-3
Southern California 3-3 2-2 2-4 2-4
Stanford 3-2 2-2 3-2 2-3
UCLA 3-3 1-2 1-5 2-3-1
Utah 5-1 2-1 3-3 3-3
Washington 6-0 3-0 4-2 5-1
Washington State 3-2 2-0 4-1 3-2

Southern California at Arizona (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
USC showed last weekend that they can still be a dangerous team, handing a Top 25 Colorado team its first conference loss. Winning at home hasn't been a problem for the Trojans, it's when they stray away from the L.A. Coliseum that their issues begin. They 0-3 SU/ATS in two road games and a neutral-site contest, averaging 14.3 points per game (PPG) while allowing 36.7 PPG. The Wildcats have struggled everywhere, going 1-5 ATS in six games overall. Their only victories have come against Hawai'i and FCS Grambling. While they nearly derailed Washington's playoff aspirations in an overtime loss in Tucson Sept. 24, they're 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in three Pac-12 games, losing their past two by 17.0 PPG. The 'over' has cashed in four straight games for Arizona. The Trojans are 7-21 ATS in their past 28 road games, and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 overall, while the Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their past 16 at home, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall. Something's gotta give, right? Well, Arizona is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings, while the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six in Arizona, and 7-3 in the past 10 meetings overall.

Utah at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m.)
Utah hits the road for Corvallis, and the Beavers served notice to the rest of the conference that it won't be an easy task coming to Reser Stadium. The Beavers surprised California 47-44 in overtime last weekend as a 13 1/2-point underdog. This game opened with Utah as a 12-point favorite, but it has been bet down to nine as of Wednesday morning. One point of concern for the Beavs is the fact they have allowed 30 or more points in each of their four games against FBS teams, including 45.5 PPG in two outings against Pac-12 foes. Utah hasn't had a prolific offense, but they do enough to get the job done. They have 20 or more points in each of their six games, and they're averaging 30.0 PPG in three league games so far. Utah is 3-1 ATS in their past four games, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 road outings. Oregon State might have won last week, but they're 5-11 ATS in the past 16 against winning teams, 7-17 ATS in their past 24 overall and 4-14 ATS in the past 18 inside the conference. The Utes are 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series, but a lot of those matchups were against much better competition.

Stanford at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Two disappointing teams meet up in South Bend for this rivalry game. Stanford was shocked by Washington State at home, their second straight loss in as many conference games, while Notre Dame was waterlogged in tropical storm conditions in Raleigh, falling 10-3 at North Carolina State. Defense has been an issue for Stanford lately, allowing 43.0 PPG in two games against Washington and Washington State. They had allowed just 12.0 PPG in their first three outings. Last season Stanford outlasted Notre Dame 38-36 Nov. 28, a rare 'over' result in this series. The 'under' is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus, and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall. The underdog has cashed in each of the past four meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. Those last two trends bode well for Stanford, as the Cardinal are 2 1/2-point underdogs as of Wednesday morning. Stanford has covered four of the past five on the road, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 against losing teams. They're also 17-8 ATS in their past 25 outside the conference. The Irish have covered seven of the past nine against Pac-12 teams, but they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts.

Arizona State at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Sparky hits the road for Boulder, and they're 13-point underdogs against a Colorado team coming off a disappointing loss at USC. The Buffaloes have played six games, and they have covered six games. Colorado has also covered four straight inside the conference, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against teams with a winning road record. Arizona State has covered six in a row against teams with a winning overall record, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts. The Sun Devils are also 9-3 ATS in their past 12 October battlles, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games dating back to last season. Arizona State has covered six of the past seven meetings in this series, while the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings between these two sides.

UCLA at Washington State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
Washington State lost to FCS Eastern Washington and Boise State to open the season, and it looked like the Cougars might be on their way to a disappointing season. However, they have opened conference play with wins against traditional powerhouses Oregon and Stanford to move to 2-0 in the Pac-12. The Cougs might catch a break if UCLA QB Josh Rosen cannot play due to a shoulder injury. If Rosen is unavailable it would be QB Mike Fafaul drawing the start. He was horrendous last week against Arizona State, completing just three of his 11 attempts for 44 yards and two picks, so Washington State's defense will be licking its chops at a chance to face Fafaul. The Bruins are a dismal 7-24 ATS in their past 31 games in October, 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning overall record. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five on the road. Washington State has covered 10 of the past 11 games inside the conference, and they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight games on the Palouse. Washington State is also 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games overall. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series, with the road team 4-1 ATS in the past five. UCLA is just 1-7 ATS in their past eight meetings in Pullman, and 0-4 ATS in the past four against the Cougs. This game was off the board as of Wednesday morning due to Rosen's uncertain status.

Teams on a bye week
California, Oregon, Washington

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama at Tennessee
By Brian Edwards

Tennessee (5-1 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) saw its good fortune finally run out last week in College Station, where it dropped a 45-38 decision to Texas A&M in overtime. The Volunteers took the cash, however, as 7.5-point underdogs thanks to yet another comeback from a huge deficit.

Butch Jones’s squad has now fallen behind by double-digit margins in five of its six games. UT trailed the Aggies 28-7 midway through the third quarter, but TD runs by Alvin Kamara and Joe Kelly trimmed the deficit to 28-21 with 7:06 remaining.

Trevor Knight put A&M in front 35-21 at the 3:22 mark with a 62-yard touchdown run, but the Vols answered with a Kamara four-yard TD run with 2:07 remaining. Next, Texas A&M freshman RB Trayveon Williams bolted off tackle left and appeared on his way to a 73-yard TD scamper. However, in one of the best plays you’ll see all season long, UT cornerback punched the ball out of Williams’s hands just a yard before he went into the end zone. The ball went out of the back of the end zone, prompting a touchback.

Tennessee took advantage by marching down the field and getting another TD from Kamara, who caught an 18-yard scoring strike from Josh Dobbs with ticks left. A&M would get into field-goal range for the final play of regulation, but its kicker hooked a potential game-winner badly.

After both teams matched field goals in the first extra session, Knight scored on a one-yard TD run in double overtime. Therefore, when Armani Watts intercepted Dobbs moments later, the game was over.

UT must quickly put that one in the rearview mirror because here comes top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama into Neyland Stadium. The Crimson Tide has won nine in a row over the Vols, who last beat ‘Bama by a 16-13 count in 2006 when Mike Shula will still on the sidelines in Tuscaloosa. During Nick Saban’s dynastic nine-year tenure, Alabama has gone 6-3 ATS when facing UT, but we’ll note the Vols have covered the number in back-to-back meetings.

In the 2014 encounter in Knoxville, Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) raced out to a 27-0 lead early in the second quarter. This prompted Jones to yank QB Nathan Peterman and insert Dobbs, who quickly asserted himself as the new starter for the long haul. Dobbs led UT to 17 unanswered points to pull within 27-17 on his nine-yard TD pass to Von Pearson with 5:52 left in the third quarter.

Tennessee would get no closer in the 34-20 loss, but it took the cash as a 20-point home underdog. Most important, Jones finally found his QB in Dobbs, who threw for 192 yards and two TDs while also rushing for 75 yards.

Dobbs has started 24 consecutive games since then, going 18-6. None of the six defeats have come by a margin larger than eight, including last season’s 19-14 loss at Alabama as a 15-point ‘dog.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama installed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points. The Vols were +400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).

Since Jones took over in 2013, UT has compiled a 4-1 spread record with a pair of outright wins in five games as a home underdog. The Vols have only been double-digit home ‘dogs twice on Jones’s watch, going 2-0 ATS.

UT has wins vs. Appalachian State (20-13 in OT), vs. Virginia Tech (45-24 in Bristol), vs. Ohio (28-19), vs. Florida (38-28) and at Georgia (34-31 thanks to a walk-off Hail Mary pass) this year. Dobbs has been the catalyst, throwing for 1,433 yards with a 14/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 324 yards and five TDs.

Tennessee will get starting RB Jalen Hurd back after he missed the Texas A&M game, but it says here that Jones needs to give Kamara more touches than Hurd. Kamara rushed for 127 yards and two TDs o 18 attempts in College Station. He also had eight receptions for 161 yards and one TD.

Hurd has rushed for 407 yards and two TDs while averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. Kamara has a 5.2 YPC average and 20 receptions for 253 yards and three TDs.

Tennessee’s defense is without two of its best players. Cam Sutton, one of the SEC’s best cornerbacks who was a second-team All-American as a punt returner last year, went down with a broken bone in his leg in the win over Ohio and remains ‘out.’ Senior LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2015, will miss his fourth consecutive game due to a shoulder injury. Also, sophomore LB Darrin Kirkland is expected to be a game-time decision. Kirkland has missed the last four games due to a high-ankle sprain. He had 66 tackles and three sacks last year.

Alabama is off a 49-30 win at Arkansas as a 14.5-point road favorite. The defense produced two more TDs on a 23-yard scoop and score from Tim Williams and a 100-yard pick-six by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who intercepted Austin Allen three times. Jalen Hurts completed 13-of-17 passes for 253 yards with two TDs and one interception.

ArDarius Stewart had five catches for 120 yards, while Damien Harris had a pair of receptions for 60 yards and one TD. Harris rushed 13 times for 122 yards.

Hurts, the true freshman QB, has seen nothing short of sensational to date. He has connected on 63.8 percent of his throws for 1,242 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. Hurts has also produced 296 rushing yards and five TDs on 62 attempts.

Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore, is Hurts’s favorite target. Ridley has 34 receptions for 412 yards and four TDs, while Stewart has 18 catches for 325 yards and three TDs despite missing 2.5 games. Harris has rushed for a team-high 478 yards and one TD, averaging 8.7 YPC. Joshua Jacobs has gained 307 rushing yards and three TDs on just 37 attempts for an 8.3 YPC average.

Alabama’s defense is stacked with future NFL players. This unit is led by senior LB Rueben Foster, who has a team-best 37 tackles to go with 2.5 tackles for loss, three QB hurries, one pass broken up and 0.5 sacks. Junior LB Shaun Dion Hamilton has 34 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, two sacks and one forced fumble, while Fitzpatrick has recorded 27 tackles, three interceptions, two TFL’s, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble and five PBU.

Alabama has posted wins vs. USC (52-6 at Jerry World), vs. Western Ky. (38-10), at Ole Miss (48-43 after trailing 24-3), vs. Kent State (48-0), vs. Kentucky (34-6) and at Arkansas (49-30).

The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight for Tennessee and is 4-2 overall. The last three games have had combined scores of 66, 65 and 83.

Alabama has seen the ‘over’ hit in both of its road games that produced combined scores of 91 and 79 points.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four UT-Bama head-to-head meetings.

-- Arkansas LB Dre Greenlaw is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. Greenlaw had 37 tackles, one INT, one forced fumble and 1.5 TFL's through the Razorbacks’ first six games.

-- Bret Bielema’s team is in bounce-back mode for Saturday’s showdown at home vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels are out for revenge after the Hogs denied them their first SEC West title by rallying for an improbable 53-52 OT victory in Oxford last year. Two seasons ago in Fayetteville, Arkansas dealt out cream-cheese treatment to Ole Miss in the form of a 30-0 clubbing. The Rebels, who were 7.5-point road ‘chalk’ as of late Friday afternoon, have gone 5-6 in 11 games as road favorites on Hugh Freeze’s watch. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 4-5 ATS as home underdog during Bielema’s four-year tenure.

-- Vanderbilt’s Derek Mason needs a victory in the worst way Saturday in Athens. His Commodores fell to 2-4 in this third and crucial campaign for his tenure by dropping a 20-13 decision at Kentucky last week. Mason, who was tabbed for his first head-coaching job after a successful run as defensive coordinator at Stanford under David Shaw, has done a splendid job of creating a solid defense for Vandy. However, the offense, most notably the QB play, has been an unmitigated disaster. That continued in Lexington last week in a game that saw Vandy get its only TD on a defensive fumble return. And let’s be real here – UK’s defense is horrible! The Commodores are 14.5-point ‘dogs at UGA. They have produced a 9-5 spread record in 14 games as double-digit ‘dogs on Mason’s watch.

-- Florida QB Luke Del Rio (6/2 TD-INT) will get his first start since a Week 3 win over North Texas when his team takes on Missouri as a 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Gators have limped to a 2-6 spread record in the eight games they’ve been favored by double digits since Jim McElwain took over in 2015. Both teams have had two weeks to get ready for this one. UF’s home game vs. LSU was postponed last week due to Hurricane Matthew. This game will now be played in Baton Rouge on Nov. 19. With this development, LSU gets an extra home game for a second straight season, while UF loses out on two home games this year. UF’s game with Presbyterian that was originally scheduled for Nov. 19 has now been cancelled.

-- Arkansas QB Austin Allen is one of the toughest players in all of college football. He took a ruthless beating from Alabama and never stayed down. According to Bart Pohlman, the producer of the biggest and best radio show in Arkansas (Sports Talk with Bo Mattingly) that I appear on every now and then as a guest, Allen was knocked down 26 times by the Crimson Tide.

-- Texas A&M is 6-0 for the first time since 1994 and Kevin Sumlin is off the hot seat that was rapidly warming during this past offseason. The Aggies are off this weekend with two weeks to prepare for next Saturday’s showdown against the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for the Pitt Panthers, who play at Virginia this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kansas State Wildcats (3-2) at Oklahoma Sooners (3-2)

Date: October 15, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

A year ago, Oklahoma went into its Big 12 Conference game with Kansas State smarting following a 24-17 upset loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners took their frustrations out by handing the Wildcats their first home shutout loss since 1991, 55-0.

This year, the 19th-ranked Sooners (3-2, 2-0) come into the contest after a 45-40 victory over the Longhorns. Needless to say, Bill Snyder's Wildcats (3-2, 1-1), who scored a wild 44-38 victory over Texas Tech last week, are looking forward to Saturday afternoon's rematch at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla.

"We can't wait to go into OU and give them a little payback for last year," said Wildcats offensive tackle Dalton Risner.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, an assistant on Snyder's first seven Kansas State teams from 1989 to 1995, says last year's convincing blowout win doesn't carry much weight this time around.

"Last year has nothing to do with this year," Stoops said during the Big 12 coaches teleconference. "We're both two completely different teams. We've got to continue to get better as a team. We haven't played close to what we think we can play."

That's especially true on defense. The Sooners who rank 109th in points allowed at 36.2 points per game yielding 40 or more points in three consecutive games. A big reason for that has been due to a rash of injuries.

Going into last week's game against Texas, the Sooners were missing five players who had started on defense at some point this season. During the game, four more were forced out, leading to an influx of young -- or at least inexperienced -- players into Oklahoma's defense.

"I don't recall that we had that many injuries at once and so many young guys going in there and playing," Stoops said before praising their performance.

They figure to need another strong one Saturday when Oklahoma hosts Kansas State.

The Wildcats have won their last two trips to Norman -- the only road team to win back-to-back road games against the Sooners since Stoops took over in 1999.

The good news for the Sooners is that some of the injured players are expected back soon. Defensive back Ahmad Thomas is likely to be back after taking a knee to the head last week. Outside linebacker Will Johnson should be able to play against the Wildcats as well after missing the last two weeks.

But there are still plenty of holes to fill.

"It'd be easier to say who's set to go," Stoops said when ticking off his injured players, mostly on the defensive side. "You've just got to keep (going). The guys had a good attitude about it and those young guys, credit to them -- they had their head in the game plan in practice and they were ready to play and for the most part played well."

Safety Steven Parker, a junior, was affected as well. Not only did he have to shift from free safety to strong safety to nickel back during the course of the game but it's his job to make sure everyone else in the secondary is aligned correctly.

"It's tough, trying to get yourself lined up and on top of that, making sure that they're doing their responsibilities, doing everything they're supposed to be doing," Parker said. "You're calling out the defense. It's a lot just on one play, especially covering those young guys. The majority of them know what they're doing. It's really more communication and making sure everybody is all in one and all intact."

Fortunately for the Sooners they have plenty of offensive weapons to cover up for their defensive woes. Oklahoma rolled up a season-high 672 yards in the Texas win. The contest marked the just the fifth time in FBS history that a team produced a 300-yard passer (Baker Mayfield, 390), a 200-yard rusher (Samaje Perine, 214) and a 200-yard receivers (Dede Westbrook, school-record 232 yards).

Oklahoma is 15-2 under Stoops in Big 12 home openers and is 16-1 in the game after playing Texas. That lone loss was to Kansas State, 31-30, two years ago in Norman.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Western Michigan Broncos (6-0) at Akron Zips (4-2)

Date: October 15, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

P.J. Fleck may soon be an attractive hire as a power five conference coach, but for now he's content guiding Western Michigan to what could wind up as the best season in school history.

The No. 24 Broncos play their first game as a ranked team in the Associated Press Top 25 poll when they visit Akron on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network) in a matchup of Mid-American Conference division leaders.

Western Michigan (6-0, 2-0 MAC West), which entered the coaches poll for the first time last week, is off to its best start since the 1941 team went 8-0.

Fleck, who of course won't speculate on his future, prevents the Broncos from getting caught up in any midseason accomplishment, but recognizes the significance of cracking the Top 25.

"Of course it means something. I think it matters a lot," Fleck said. "Internally, we play it down a lot because where you are right now doesn't mean you have the right to be there tomorrow.

"What I do love it for is our community. This is a 109-year history of our program ... we've never been ranked.

"This city of Kalamazoo is a special place. We have an incredible institution with an amazing student body. And incredible faculty and professors that deserve to have a top 25 football program. And now they have one. They can say they have one."

Fleck is the second-youngest coach in the FBS at 35 -- Memphis's Mike Norvell is 24. Fleck was 1-11 in his first season at Western Michigan before going 8-5 in each of the last two years while going to a pair of bowl games.

"Our failing equals growth," Fleck said. "We have a lot of scars. But we've built leather skin."

The Broncos are the only FBS team in the country without a turnover and protecting the ball starts with senior quarterback Zach Terrell, who completes 70.6 percent of his passes (fourth nationally) with 15 touchdowns. Terrell threw three touchdown passes and rushed for another in Western Michigan's 45-30 victory over Northern Illinois last week despite severely biting his tongue while taking a hard hit early in the second quarter, causing him to miss two plays.

Terrell's favorite target is senior wide receiver Corey Davis (36 catches, 16.4 yard average, eight touchdowns), the all-time MAC leader in receiving yards with 4,374. He caught a pair of touchdown passes last week, giving him a school-record 41 for his career and breaking the previous standard of 39 set by Greg Jennings.

The Broncos, who average a MAC-best 44.8 points, are also difficult to stop when they run. Junior running back Jarvion Franklin was named MAC West Division Offensive Player of the Week after totaling a career-high 249 yards from scrimmage -- 169 rushing -- with two touchdowns (one receiving) against Northern Illinois. He has 34 career rushing touchdowns and should blow by the school record of 39 set by Jerome Persell from 1976-78.

Franklin (514 yards this season) rushed for 132 yards and a pair of scores in Western Michigan's 49-10 victory over Central Michigan on Oct. 1 after No. 1 running back Jamauri Bogan (530) went down with an ankle injury after one carry. Bogan did not play against Northern Illinois and is questionable to play Saturday.

The Broncos shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball against the Zips (4-2, 2-0 MAC East), who are near the bottom of the conference in all major defensive statistical categories.

Akron, though, boasts the No. 3 scoring offense in the MAC (37.7 points), but must contend with the conference's No. 1 defense (20.5 points allowed).

Junior quarterback Tra'Von Chapman filled in admirably for the injured Thomas Woodson (shoulder) in leading the Zips to consecutive victories over Kent State on the road 31-27 on Oct. 1 and Miami (Ohio) 35-13 last week. Chapman threw five touchdown passes against two interceptions while rushing for a score in those games.

Woodson is questionable to play Saturday and it appears more than likely Chapman makes his third straight start.

The Zips lost their 11th straight game to a ranked opponent 54-10 at No. 8 Wisconsin earlier this season and are 1-26 all-time in such contests -- 1-2 at home. The victory was a 34-20 verdict over No. 25 Marshall in 2002.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF action report: Plenty of line movement on Saturday's college football board
By PATRICK EVERSON

It’s mid-October, so the college football season is hitting the halfway point. We talk about where the action is for Week 7 with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, and Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas.

Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets – Open: -27.5; Move: -31

Toledo (4-1 SU and ATS) is just an eyelash from being undefeated, with its only loss coming in a 55-53 shootout at Brigham Young as a 3-point underdog in Week 5. The Rockets rebounded with a 35-20 victory last week, though they fell short as hefty 20.5-point favorites.

Bowling Green (1-5 SU and ATS) covered for the first time this season last week, in a 30-24 setback at Ohio catching 11.5 points. But that hasn’t swayed bettors at all this week for a 3:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

“That must be professional play,” Bogdanovich said of the 4-point line increase on the Rockets. “We’re high on Toledo, and obviously a professional must have liked that game and got on it early.”

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: -3; Move: -6

Over the past two weeks, Rutgers (2-4 SU and ATS) has been outscored by a whopping total of 136-0. That includes a 78-0 wipeout against Michigan in Week 6 as a 30-point home ‘dog, following a 58-0 loss at Ohio State getting 39 points.

Illinois (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) was upset by Purdue 34-31 in overtime as a 9-point home fave, the Illini’s fourth consecutive SU loss. But bettors just can’t get past how awful the Scarlet Knights have been.

“Rutgers coming off that destruction last week, 78-0 is just crazy to even say that number,” Simbal said. “Rutgers has got to be a touchdown underdog against almost everybody at this point, as you’re seeing them getting 6 against Illinois. I wouldn’t be surprised if that line ends up going to a touchdown.”

This game kicks off at noon Eastern.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers – Open: +5; Move: +3

Nebraska is unbeaten but still not quite getting the bettors’ respect. The Huskers (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) had their bye last week, after a 31-16 home win over Illinois giving 20.5 points. Indiana (3-2 SU and ATS) lost to Ohio State 38-17 last week, but covered as a hefty 28-point road pup. Two weeks ago, the Hoosiers upset Michigan State 24-21 in overtime as a 5-point home pup.

“We’ve gotten a ton of sharp business on the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said of action for this 3:30 p.m. Eastern game. “But the public at some point will be on the favorite. There will be Nebraska money. That’s one of the better betting games this week, a good two-way game.”

UCLA Bruins at Washington State Cougars – Open: -5; Move: -7

Washington State (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) is on a surprising 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS surge, beating Oregon and Stanford in back-to-back weeks as an underdog. Last week at Stanford, the Cougars rolled to a stunning 42-16 victory as 7.5-point road pups.

UCLA (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) lost to Arizona State 23-20 as an 8-point road chalk in Week 6, and quarterback Jay Rosen got dinged up in that game, so his status is uncertain for this 10:30 p.m. Eastern start.

“Washington State seems to finally be putting it together here. They had a huge win last week at Stanford,” Simbal said. “They opened up as a 5-point favorite against UCLA. That line has now gone up to 7. So, a touchdown favorite, Washington State over UCLA, I would’ve never thought that before the season began.”

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars – Open: -20; Move: -21.5; Move: -21

Houston was hoping to be part of the College Football Playoff picture, but that’s likely not happening now in the wake of last week. The Cougars (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) suffered a debilitating 46-40 loss at Navy as a 15.5-point fave. Tulsa (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has needed overtime to win each of the past two weeks despite being double-digit chalk, including a 43-40 home win over Southern Methodist giving 15 points last week.

“It’s either a bounce-back week for Houston, or the Cougars are so demoralized that they can’t play for the national championship,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve got more on Tulsa than on Houston right now, but it looks like a two-way game. I imagine we’ll need Tulsa by kickoff (7 p.m. Eastern).”

No. 21 Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers – Open: +10.5; Move: +7.5

Utah (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) is coming off a 36-23 victory at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite, but the Utes are banged up at running back, and weather is expected to be a huge issue for this 4 p.m. Eastern kickoff. High winds and rain are predicted at Reser Stadium, which could hinder Utah’s passing game.

Oregon State (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) ended a 12-game Pac-12 losing streak last week, edging California 47-44 in overtime as a healthy 13.5-point home ‘dog.

“Obviously, the bad weather favors the ‘dog and the under,” Bogdanovich said, noting the total dropped from the opener of 47 all the way down to 40.5. “That was all based on information, I’d say, with the horrible conditions up there.”

UNLV Rebels at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Open: -7.5; Move: -9

Hawaii (3-3 SU, 4-1 ATS) comes in off a pair of double-digit victories, both from the underdog role. The Rainbow Warriors beat Nevada 38-17 getting 3 points at home two weeks ago, then dropped San Jose State 34-17 as a 3-point road ‘dog. Meanwhile, UNLV (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) is coming off a 26-7 loss at San Diego State as a 16.5-point pup.

“Some sharps were definitely on Hawaii, driving that number up,” Bogdanovich said of action for what will be the last game of the day, with a midnight Eastern kickoff.

Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:

• No. 1 Alabama opened as 10-point chalk at No. 11 Tennessee and was bet up to 12 by Monday morning, then shot as high as 14 by Friday afternoon before dropping back a notch to 13.5.
• No. 19 Virginia Tech is up to -20 at Syracuse, after opening as a 17.5-point fave.
• South Florida opened -17 at home against Connecticut and is now up to -20.
• Texas-San Antonio was initially installed as a 1-point road underdog to Rice, but that line flipped to UTSA -3 within just a couple of hours last Sunday, and the Roadrunners are now -3.5.
• Louisiana-Monroe opened -4 against visiting Texas State and went up to as high as -8. The Warhawks are now at -7.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama at Tennessee
By Brian Edwards

Tennessee (5-1 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) saw its good fortune finally run out last week in College Station, where it dropped a 45-38 decision to Texas A&M in overtime. The Volunteers took the cash, however, as 7.5-point underdogs thanks to yet another comeback from a huge deficit.

Butch Jones’s squad has now fallen behind by double-digit margins in five of its six games. UT trailed the Aggies 28-7 midway through the third quarter, but TD runs by Alvin Kamara and Joe Kelly trimmed the deficit to 28-21 with 7:06 remaining.

Trevor Knight put A&M in front 35-21 at the 3:22 mark with a 62-yard touchdown run, but the Vols answered with a Kamara four-yard TD run with 2:07 remaining. Next, Texas A&M freshman RB Trayveon Williams bolted off tackle left and appeared on his way to a 73-yard TD scamper. However, in one of the best plays you’ll see all season long, UT cornerback punched the ball out of Williams’s hands just a yard before he went into the end zone. The ball went out of the back of the end zone, prompting a touchback.

Tennessee took advantage by marching down the field and getting another TD from Kamara, who caught an 18-yard scoring strike from Josh Dobbs with ticks left. A&M would get into field-goal range for the final play of regulation, but its kicker hooked a potential game-winner badly.

After both teams matched field goals in the first extra session, Knight scored on a one-yard TD run in double overtime. Therefore, when Armani Watts intercepted Dobbs moments later, the game was over.

UT must quickly put that one in the rearview mirror because here comes top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama into Neyland Stadium. The Crimson Tide has won nine in a row over the Vols, who last beat ‘Bama by a 16-13 count in 2006 when Mike Shula will still on the sidelines in Tuscaloosa. During Nick Saban’s dynastic nine-year tenure, Alabama has gone 6-3 ATS when facing UT, but we’ll note the Vols have covered the number in back-to-back meetings.

In the 2014 encounter in Knoxville, Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) raced out to a 27-0 lead early in the second quarter. This prompted Jones to yank QB Nathan Peterman and insert Dobbs, who quickly asserted himself as the new starter for the long haul. Dobbs led UT to 17 unanswered points to pull within 27-17 on his nine-yard TD pass to Von Pearson with 5:52 left in the third quarter.

Tennessee would get no closer in the 34-20 loss, but it took the cash as a 20-point home underdog. Most important, Jones finally found his QB in Dobbs, who threw for 192 yards and two TDs while also rushing for 75 yards.

Dobbs has started 24 consecutive games since then, going 18-6. None of the six defeats have come by a margin larger than eight, including last season’s 19-14 loss at Alabama as a 15-point ‘dog.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama installed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points. The Vols were +400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).

Since Jones took over in 2013, UT has compiled a 4-1 spread record with a pair of outright wins in five games as a home underdog. The Vols have only been double-digit home ‘dogs twice on Jones’s watch, going 2-0 ATS.

UT has wins vs. Appalachian State (20-13 in OT), vs. Virginia Tech (45-24 in Bristol), vs. Ohio (28-19), vs. Florida (38-28) and at Georgia (34-31 thanks to a walk-off Hail Mary pass) this year. Dobbs has been the catalyst, throwing for 1,433 yards with a 14/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 324 yards and five TDs.

Tennessee will get starting RB Jalen Hurd back after he missed the Texas A&M game, but it says here that Jones needs to give Kamara more touches than Hurd. Kamara rushed for 127 yards and two TDs o 18 attempts in College Station. He also had eight receptions for 161 yards and one TD.

Hurd has rushed for 407 yards and two TDs while averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. Kamara has a 5.2 YPC average and 20 receptions for 253 yards and three TDs.

Tennessee’s defense is without two of its best players. Cam Sutton, one of the SEC’s best cornerbacks who was a second-team All-American as a punt returner last year, went down with a broken bone in his leg in the win over Ohio and remains ‘out.’ Senior LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2015, will miss his fourth consecutive game due to a shoulder injury. Also, sophomore LB Darrin Kirkland is expected to be a game-time decision. Kirkland has missed the last four games due to a high-ankle sprain. He had 66 tackles and three sacks last year.

Alabama is off a 49-30 win at Arkansas as a 14.5-point road favorite. The defense produced two more TDs on a 23-yard scoop and score from Tim Williams and a 100-yard pick-six by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who intercepted Austin Allen three times. Jalen Hurts completed 13-of-17 passes for 253 yards with two TDs and one interception.

ArDarius Stewart had five catches for 120 yards, while Damien Harris had a pair of receptions for 60 yards and one TD. Harris rushed 13 times for 122 yards.

Hurts, the true freshman QB, has seen nothing short of sensational to date. He has connected on 63.8 percent of his throws for 1,242 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. Hurts has also produced 296 rushing yards and five TDs on 62 attempts.

Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore, is Hurts’s favorite target. Ridley has 34 receptions for 412 yards and four TDs, while Stewart has 18 catches for 325 yards and three TDs despite missing 2.5 games. Harris has rushed for a team-high 478 yards and one TD, averaging 8.7 YPC. Joshua Jacobs has gained 307 rushing yards and three TDs on just 37 attempts for an 8.3 YPC average.

Alabama’s defense is stacked with future NFL players. This unit is led by senior LB Rueben Foster, who has a team-best 37 tackles to go with 2.5 tackles for loss, three QB hurries, one pass broken up and 0.5 sacks. Junior LB Shaun Dion Hamilton has 34 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, two sacks and one forced fumble, while Fitzpatrick has recorded 27 tackles, three interceptions, two TFL’s, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble and five PBU.

Alabama has posted wins vs. USC (52-6 at Jerry World), vs. Western Ky. (38-10), at Ole Miss (48-43 after trailing 24-3), vs. Kent State (48-0), vs. Kentucky (34-6) and at Arkansas (49-30).

The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight for Tennessee and is 4-2 overall. The last three games have had combined scores of 66, 65 and 83.

Alabama has seen the ‘over’ hit in both of its road games that produced combined scores of 91 and 79 points.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four UT-Bama head-to-head meetings.

-- Arkansas LB Dre Greenlaw is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. Greenlaw had 37 tackles, one INT, one forced fumble and 1.5 TFL's through the Razorbacks’ first six games.

-- Bret Bielema’s team is in bounce-back mode for Saturday’s showdown at home vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels are out for revenge after the Hogs denied them their first SEC West title by rallying for an improbable 53-52 OT victory in Oxford last year. Two seasons ago in Fayetteville, Arkansas dealt out cream-cheese treatment to Ole Miss in the form of a 30-0 clubbing. The Rebels, who were 7.5-point road ‘chalk’ as of late Friday afternoon, have gone 5-6 in 11 games as road favorites on Hugh Freeze’s watch. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 4-5 ATS as home underdog during Bielema’s four-year tenure.

-- Vanderbilt’s Derek Mason needs a victory in the worst way Saturday in Athens. His Commodores fell to 2-4 in this third and crucial campaign for his tenure by dropping a 20-13 decision at Kentucky last week. Mason, who was tabbed for his first head-coaching job after a successful run as defensive coordinator at Stanford under David Shaw, has done a splendid job of creating a solid defense for Vandy. However, the offense, most notably the QB play, has been an unmitigated disaster. That continued in Lexington last week in a game that saw Vandy get its only TD on a defensive fumble return. And let’s be real here – UK’s defense is horrible! The Commodores are 14.5-point ‘dogs at UGA. They have produced a 9-5 spread record in 14 games as double-digit ‘dogs on Mason’s watch.

-- Florida QB Luke Del Rio (6/2 TD-INT) will get his first start since a Week 3 win over North Texas when his team takes on Missouri as a 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Gators have limped to a 2-6 spread record in the eight games they’ve been favored by double digits since Jim McElwain took over in 2015. Both teams have had two weeks to get ready for this one. UF’s home game vs. LSU was postponed last week due to Hurricane Matthew. This game will now be played in Baton Rouge on Nov. 19. With this development, LSU gets an extra home game for a second straight season, while UF loses out on two home games this year. UF’s game with Presbyterian that was originally scheduled for Nov. 19 has now been cancelled.

-- Arkansas QB Austin Allen is one of the toughest players in all of college football. He took a ruthless beating from Alabama and never stayed down. According to Bart Pohlman, the producer of the biggest and best radio show in Arkansas (Sports Talk with Bo Mattingly) that I appear on every now and then as a guest, Allen was knocked down 26 times by the Crimson Tide.

-- Texas A&M is 6-0 for the first time since 1994 and Kevin Sumlin is off the hot seat that was rapidly warming during this past offseason. The Aggies are off this weekend with two weeks to prepare for next Saturday’s showdown against the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for the Pitt Panthers, who play at Virginia this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: NC State Wolfpack (4-1) at Clemson Tigers (6-0)

Date: October 15, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Clemson's big-play capabilities are finally showing up in games.

After just one 40-yard play in the first five games of the season, the Tigers had three plays longer than 40 yards in the first quarter of last week's 56-10 victory over Boston College and the Eagles' top-ranked defense.

Running back Wayne Gallman scored on a 59-yard run, receiver Mike Williams had a 50-yard reception and tight end Jordan Leggett had a 56-yard touchdown catch in an eight-minute span of the first quarter.

"We dominated in big plays and those are something we take a lot of pride in," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said.

There could be plenty of fireworks this week, too, when the No. 3 Tigers (6-0, 3-0 ACC) take on North Carolina State (4-1, 1-0 ACC) at noon ET Saturday (ABC) at Memorial Stadium in Clemson.

In last year's 56-41 victory at N.C. State, Clemson had scoring plays of 24, 57, 42, 40, 35, and 36 yards.

"Explosive plays -- that's what we want to do," Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott said. "You don't want to always have to drive 85 yards in 10 plays to score. It's hurting our plays per game, but we'll take the one-play scores. It's nice to get those.

"There's no doubt it was an element we wanted to improve on. We have all the pieces. We just didn't connect in the first five games. Friday night we did connect."

Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the season's midpoint and a key point in the schedule. After playing N.C. State the Tigers will have a bye week before hitting the road to face Florida State on Oct. 29.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson is rounding into midseason form. He has nine touchdown passes in the past two games and has a history of big games against N.C. State.

"We control our own destiny," Watson said. "Everything is out in front of us that we want. We've got some big games ahead."

Sophomore wide receiver Deon Cain has emerged as a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Cain has only 13 receptions, which is fourth-best on the team, but six have resulted in touchdowns, including two scores in each of the past two games. He also had a 40-yard touchdown reception at N.C. State last season.

Barring an upset, the Tigers should be favored in each of their final six games and are firmly entrenched in the driver's seat in the ACC's Atlantic Division. Florida State already has two league losses and the Tigers hold the tiebreaker with Louisville by virtue of their victory on Oct. 1.

But the Tigers can't be caught looking past N.C. State, which is coming off a waterlogged 10-3 victory against Notre Dame and won its only ACC outing 33-16 over then-unbeaten Wake Forest.

"Both of us are undefeated in our conference and right now we're tied for first place," Swinney said. "And we want to try to break that tie and have it in our favor when it's over on Sunday. It's a big game, and I look forward to getting back at it."

Defense has been a key for the Wolfpack. Notre Dame converted just one of 15 third-down situations and just two of four fourth downs last week, which coach Dave Doeren said was what pleased him most about the win.

The Wolfpack got their only touchdown against the Irish on safety Dexter Wright's return of a blocked punt.

For the season the Demon Deacons have allowed their opponents to convert only 20 of 71 third-down situations. That works out to just 28.1 percent success, 12th best in the country.

Offensively, the Wolfpack managed only 198 yards in total offense against the Irish in the wind and rain. Running back Matt Dayes, however, did manage to rush for 126 yards against the Irish, giving him 563 for the season. He might have a little extra incentive because he suffered what became a season-ending injury during last October's game against Clemson.

Quarterback Ryan Finley has shown an ability to take care of the football. He has gone 128 passes without throwing an interception in the five games this season. But he is coming off a game with only 27 passing yards in large part because of the messy conditions for the Notre Dame game.

"I'm not really worried about yardage because of the field conditions," Doeren said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (3-2)

Date: October 15, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

At one time, being a top 10 team was old hat for Nebraska.

Not these days, which is why the Cornhuskers' rise to No. 10 in this week's poll is a big deal. It's their first top 10 ranking since November of 2011, when they promptly lost to Northwestern.

If Nebraska (5-0, 2-0) isn't ready to go after an open date, this visit to the top 10 won't last long. It visits Indiana (3-2, 1-1) Saturday for what arguably is its toughest game to date.

While Oregon was ranked 22nd when the Cornhuskers edged it 35-32 on Sept. 16, the Ducks have lost four in a row, taking luster off that win. The Hoosiers' defeats are to 5-1 Wake Forest and No. 2 Ohio State, which had to work for nearly the full 60 minutes in last week's 38-17 verdict.

"Growth is not an option or a luxury, it's a necessity. That really hit home with me about our team," Nebraska coach Mike Riley said. "We've got to keep on the rise. We've got plenty of growth still yet to do."

Along with plenty of healing, for that matter. Despite the well-timed off-week, the Cornhuskers still have more injury concerns than they'd prefer. Running back Devine Ozigbo, who leads the team with 76 carries, is doubtful with a sprained ankle.

Tight end Cethan Carter and wide receiver Jordan Westerkamp are also doubtful with elbow and back injuries, respectively. And quarterback Tommy Armstrong, Jr., who makes the offense go, just got his ankle out of a walking boot but should be able to play.

If Ozigbo, Carter and Westerkamp do sit out, Armstrong becomes more of a marked man. And an Indiana defense which is leaps and bounds better than last year is certainly capable of putting Armstrong under siege.

For his part, Armstrong is worried about just one thing.

"We just want to keep winning, treat every game like it is a big game and take it a week at a time," he said. "It is all going to fall into place for itself. This team is really hungry for success."

The Hoosiers should come to their homecoming game with burgeoning appetites as well. They could have made things tougher on Ohio State, but couldn't convert a 4th-and-1 inside the Buckeyes' 5 with more than 10 minutes left.

A touchdown would have pulled Indiana within 31-24, giving it more than enough time to really put game pressure on the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers gave up just 93 passing yards against the efficient J.T. Barrett, 37 of those on a scoring strike in the last four minutes.

"We have had some blunders, previously, as far as not finishing," admitted Hoosiers coach Kevin Wilson. "We have talked about that and we can execute better. We can call some better plays. When it doesn't work, you should always do something else."

Like Nebraska, Indiana is dealing with injury concerns. All-America offensive guard Dan Feeney (concussion) has missed the last three games and last year's leading receiver, Simmie Cobbs, is out for the year with an ankle problem.

But the Hoosiers can still pose a threat to most defenses as they lead the Big 10 in passing yardage at 293 yards per game. JUCO transfer Richard Lagow is completing 60 percent of his passes and has thrown for 11 touchdowns, but also has seven interceptions.

This will be the first meeting of the teams since Nebraska joined the Big Ten five years ago. Of the conference's current alignment, Indiana and Maryland are the only schools the Cornhuskers haven't played.

Wilson touched on that unfamiliarity Monday, comparing Nebraska to Ohio State because of the similarities between the teams.

"I probably don't know them as well as Ohio State," he said, "but there are similar traits offensively with line play, running game, a great quarterback that can make a lot of plays and speed on the perimeter."

Riley is hopeful his team can flash all those attributes before they get to the second half. Slow starts have been a concern, and one in this game against a sneaky good team could be costly.

"We have to remind them that it's not against the rules to score in the first and get something going," he joked.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2) at Miami Hurricanes (4-1)

Date: October 15, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

With both teams coming off Atlanta Coast Conference losses, No. 16 Miami and North Carolina will be playing essentially an elimination game in the Coastal Division race when they clash at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC/ESPN2) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

A second conference loss at this early stage of the race doesn't necessarily eliminate either team, but it does put the loser in a position of needing help, particularly North Carolina (4-2, 2-1 ACC).

That is because the Tar Heels lost to Virginia Tech, and in the case of a two-way tie with Tech, which is 2-0 in conference play, the Hokies would hold the tiebreaker.

A second league loss, this one to Miami, also would give the Tar Heels defeats to both of their chief rivals in the Coastal Division. Few scenarios would work out in their favor in that case.

The Hurricanes (4-1, 1-1 ACC) could withstand the impact of a second ACC loss a bit better because they still have Virginia Tech yet to play. But they still would need some help in the form of a second defeat for the Hokies in ACC play if they lose to the Tar Heels to have tiebreaker scenarios start to work in their favor.

The Hurricanes are scheduled to play at Virginia Tech just five days after their game against the Heels in a Thursday night encounter in Blacksburg.

Unlike the Tar Heels, however, the Hurricanes control their own destiny in the Coastal race. Win out, and they earn their first berth in the ACC championship game.

"The Coastal is wide open right now," Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya said after the Hurricanes lost last week 20-19 when the Seminoles blocked an extra-point try after a late touchdown. "I think just about everyone has a loss.

"We just have to keep going, keep fighting and plan on winning it. That's what I plan on doing. I know that's what the rest of the team plans on doing. We can't let this loss define us."

Miami coach Mark Richt also noted how wide open the race is at this early point.

"Everybody has a lot to play for, and we're one of them," he said. "We have North Carolina coming up and a few more Coastal opponents pretty quick. We'll find out how we fare on that side.

"Hopefully, we can get back in the race. I think we will."

It should be pointed out that although all conference games figure in a team's conference record, the second tiebreaker after head-to-head competition is a team's record within the division. That adds a little extra to this week's game as well.

Kaaya will go into the matchup after throwing for 214 yards and two touchdowns against the Seminoles. He threw one interception, however, and that was a costly mistake. His pass into the end zone came on a second-down play early in the third quarter and denied the Hurricanes an opportunity to build on a 13-3 lead.

The Seminoles then cashed in on the miscue to drive 80 yards for their first touchdown.

Kaaya said there was a miscommunication on the play between him and freshman receiver Ahmmon Richards, who dropped a pass on the previous play.

"I kind of threw it underneath," Kaaya said, "and the corner turned around and made a play."

The Tar Heels certainly can point to more than one play as being costly in the 34-3 beating they took from Virginia Tech that dropped them out of this week's Top 25 rankings. They rushed for 73 yards and passed for only 58 more on a windy, rainy afternoon.

"I honestly don't know if I've been a part of a worse performance offensively," Heels coach Larry Fedora said. "Defensively, I thought that for a large part of the game we hung in there pretty well."

However, the offense kept putting the defense in untenable situations, losing four turnovers on quarterback Mitch Trubisky's first two interceptions of the season and two fumbles.

Before last week, when he completed only 13 of 33 pass attempts, Trubisky had completed 76 percent of his passes. He has a deep stable of receivers to throw to led by senior Ryan Switzer, who has 49 catches for 589 yards for the season, though Switzer had only two receptions for 2 yards against the Hokies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2)

Date: October 15, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

In a Big 12 Conference becoming known more and more for its wacky video-game-like scores, No. 20 West Virginia is off to a 4-0 start thanks to, gasp, defense.

The Mountaineers certainly won't be confused with the 1986 Chicago Bears on that side of the ball, but they gave up just a combined 27 points in wins over Missouri (26-11) and Kansas State (17-16). They rank third in the Big 12 in scoring defense (20 points per game), pass defense (227.2 yards per game) and total defense (418.5 yards per game).

But now comes the stiffest test of the season for West Virginia (4-0, 1-0) as it travels to Texas Tech (3-2, 1-1) on Saturday (noon ET, FS1).

The Red Raiders lead the nation in passing yards per game (544) and are second to only Louisville in both scoring (55.2 points per game) and total offense (649.8 yards per game).

Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the nation in passing yards per game (454.8) and total offense (487.2 yards per game). Despite being bothered by a sore shoulder, he has completed 166 of 228 passes for 2,274 yards, 20 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Whew! Good thing the Mountaineers had an extra week to get ready for this one. In their past nine games at Jones Stadium, the Red Raiders have averaged 60.1 points and 668.1 yards.

"They're so unique with what they're doing," Mountaineers coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It's not really a secret what they're doing, it's just that Mahomes is so good at keeping things alive. They play so fast and score so many points that it's challenging."

Since Mahomes took over the starting job last year, Texas Tech has scored at least 52 points and gained at least 607 yards in every home game.

The best defense for West Virginia could be a prolific offense. The Mountaineers have shown they can make big plays at times in the first four games, but they really haven't had that open-your-eyes outing, the game in which they go for a half-hundred or more.

This will have to be that game, because it is unrealistic to count on the defense to hold down Mahomes. West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard might not have to outplay him, but he has to come close to matching him and avoid the mistakes that would give the Red Raiders extra possessions.

"When you get into these games like Texas Tech, you better score more, so that probably means you need to take a few more chances, maybe go for it on fourth down more and try and get touchdowns instead of field goals," Holgorsen said.

One way for the Mountaineers to reduce the impact that Texas Tech's offense could have is to run the ball often and well. Junior college transfer Justin Crawford has become the team's leading rusher as senior Rushel Shell has managed just 35 yards in each of the past two games. The Red Raiders are allowing 179.4 rushing yards per game, so opponent can run on them, and if West Virginia's veteran offensive line can execute, Crawford and Shell could put up good numbers.

Howard is quietly ninth in FBS in total offense through four games with 344.5 yards per game, yet there is a feeling he can probably be more efficient.

Howard has tossed an interception in each game this year, but it hasn't come back to haunt the Mountaineers yet. This will be a good week for Howard to eliminate turnovers because if he can, the Texas Tech defense is pliable enough that West Virginia should post some healthy numbers.

Wide receiver Shelton Gibson has been Howard's top target, averaging 24.1 yards per catch. Gibson has caught 19 passes, and his average of 114.5 yards per game ranks third in the Big 12 and ninth in FBS. He will be going against a Red Raiders defense that is yielding more than 265 passing yards per game.

Safety Kyzir White has been a nice addition to the Mountaineers' defense, collecting 24 tackles in his first four games. White had an impactful game against Kansas State last Saturday with six stops, a sack and a pass breakup. He figures to have plenty of action this week against Texas Tech's pass-happy attack, which will come at West Virginia from every imaginable angle.

Mahomes was questionable last week due to a sore shoulder, then started and threw for 504 yards in a 44-38 loss at Kansas State. He also surrendered a pick-six, and the team struggled to pick up yardage in key spots late in the game.

Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury said that Mahomes appeared to be bothered again by his injured shoulder late in that contest but doesn't expect that to be a factor on Saturday.

"I think he pushed it to be out there this past week. A lot of guys would not have played in that game," Kingsbury said. "He wanted to play, and threw it really well. So it will just continue to get better and better."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-1) at Florida State Seminoles (4-2)

Date: October 15, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

With a showdown with No. 3 Clemson looming in the near future, Florida State must keep its focus after escaping with a 20-19 victory over Miami that was secured on a late blocked extra point.

The No. 14 Seminoles (4-2, 1-2 ACC) will be looking to get back to even in the ACC when they host Wake Forest (5-1, 2-1) at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. (ESPN).

Despite Wake's advantage when it comes to won-lost records, the Seminoles are heavy favorites to extend their win streak in the series to five games, but that doesn't come into play in the mid of Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher.

"Don't worry about the opponent. It ain't about the opponent, it's about us," Fisher said. "I mean, it's never about your opponent. It's always about you. That's all you can control."

Fisher has challenged his team not to let down after the emotional victory over the Hurricanes. The Seminoles have an open date after the game against Wake, then comes the home game against unbeaten Clemson.

"Who are you as a player?" Fisher said was the message he delivered to his players. "And what I mean by that, how do you want people to think of you? How do you want people to respond to you?

"You don't think they look at you really well? Well, then do the right things, and don't have relief syndrome."

The Seminoles have had their ups and downs this season, but have been explosive on offense all year behind redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois.

Francois demonstrated his toughness once again in the win over Miami. After getting sidelined for a few series in the second quarter after taking a big hit late in the first, he came back and completed 10 of 11 passes in the third quarter in rallying the Seminoles from a 13-3 halftime deficit to a 17-13 lead going into the fourth quarter.

He finished the game going 20 of 31 for 234 yards and two touchdowns.

A key factor lately has been the play of running back Dalvin Cook.

After rushing for a total of just 208 yards in his first three games, he has amassed 557 on the ground in his last three. The Miami native went off against his hometown team last week with 150 yards rushing and 59 more on a touchdown reception that brought the Seminoles to within three points.

A junior who is projected to be one of the top running backs available in next year's NFL Draft if he decides to leave early, Cook has now eclipsed 300 all-purpose yards in three straight games.

He leads the nation in yards from scrimmage with 1,130 yards through six games.

Wake Forest comes into the game in the unusual position of needing just one more win to get to the six-win level for bowl eligibility. The Demon Deacons haven't made the postseason since 2011, when they finished 6-6 and lost to Mississippi State in their bowl game.

The Deacons fought off the elements last week in beating Syracuse 28-9 in rainy, windy conditions brought on by Hurricane Matthew. The way they expanded a 14-9 lead to the final margin over the last four minutes showed something to Deacons coach Dave Clawson.

"Our guys have grown up and sometimes you have to be in that situation once before, then you have success in it," Clawson said. "Last year, we played a lot of young guys and I really hope the benefit of doing that would come this year. In a lot of ways, it has."

Deacons quarterback John Wolford continues to take some physical punishment, but he has weathered it well for the most part. He has rushed for two touchdowns twice in the past three games. His 94 rushing yards in the Syracuse game marked a career high for the junior.

And there's the possibility that quarterback Kendall Hinton could be ready to return from a knee injury after missing the last 3 1/2 games. That would give the Demon Deacons more flexibility.

Running back Cade Carney's return to the offense also has provided a spark. He missed three games with a knee injury, but the freshman has eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark in two of his three games.