NCAAB Bubble Update
By Bruce Marshall
As the calendar turns to February, it’s time to officially kick off the “bubble season” in college hoops. From this point forward, numerous teams (and their fans) will agonize over every win or loss, with every result feeling as if it has a profound impact on the season.
While all games are important, it should not be automatically assumed that results in February mean more than they do in November. Past Selection Committees have varied widely in weights given to results in certain portions of the season. While in some years the selectors have been known to value performance in the stretch drive, and final ten games in particular, more heavily, that has not held fast and true every year. Indeed, in recent campaigns, most of the Selection Committees seem to be putting equal weight on results over the entirety of the season, which is probably not a bad idea.
Following are looks at the major D-I conferences that have chances to send multiple teams to the Big Dance. Included are straight-up, RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), and SOS (Strength of Schedule) numbers through January 28. While all of those numbers can change significantly prior to Selection Sunday, we’re not that far along in the season just yet. It’s only the end of January, and at this point, the following report is how we view the “bubble situation” six weeks before Selection Sunday. Our next in-depth Bracketology Update will come next week!
AMERICAN ATHLETIC
We are not ready to pencil any team from the AAC into the Dance quite yet. Several sides look to be in good shape, however, and by the time we get to mid-February we might be able to put an American team or two into the lock category. But not yet.
Tulsa (SUR 15-5, RPI-42, SOS-110)...One of the more pleasant surprises in the American, although maybe the Golden Hurricane shouldn’t be, as it returned four starters from last year’s Big Dance qualifier. But HC Danny Manning moved to Wake Forest, and Frank Haith made a surprising move coming over from Missouri in the offseason, and there were a few bumps in November when the team ended the month only 3-3. There are a couple of bad losses on the result list vs. Oral Roberts and SE Oklahoma State, but Tulsa is winning in the AAC and still unbeaten in league play entering the weekend. All of Tulsa’s good wins are in American action, however, so the Golden Hurricane will have to do a bit more work before feeling comfy about an at-large bid.
SMU (SUR 17-4, RPI-18, SOS-47)...Probably the closest of the AAC reps to being on the safe side of the cut line, but Larry Brown will be taking no chances down the stretch after the Mustangs might have been the last team to be left out of the 68-team field a year ago. The Selection Committee often grants some wiggle room to teams that lost games when absent their best players, and SMU’s three November defeats all came before key frontliner Markus Kennedy returned to active duty. The best non-league win was probably against Michigan, so Brown and the Ponies still have some work to do before feeling secure about an at-large bid.
Cincinnati (SUR 14-5, RPI-28, SOS-36)...The Bearcats’ numbers suggest they are on the safe side of the cut line at the moment. But they have dropped off of the pace in the American, and HC Mick Cronin is on medical leave for the remainder of the season. Cincy also still doesn’t own a DD scorer (soph G Troy Caupain leads the team at 9.9 ppg), and the best non-league win is only against NC State. The Bearcats will have to prevent slipping too much further in the AAC table to avoid potential bubble trouble in March.
UConn (SUR 11-7, RPI-78, SOS-53)...At the moment we don’t think UConn would be in the field of 68, and comparisons to last year’s eventual national champion side are misplaced, even though the Huskies had not flashed title-winning form by this time a year ago, either. Dayton and Florida are useful non-conference wins, however, and enough components (especially HC Kevin Ollie and star G Ryan Boatright) remain from last year’s tourney wonders to at last keep the Huskies on the fence for a few more weeks.
Memphis (SUR 13-7, RPI-77, SOS-55)...Like UConn, Memphis would currently be on the wrong side of the Big Dance cut line. But the Tigers look to be ramping up for a possible stretch run by winning five of their past six entering the weekend, and they will not be hurt by their SOS numbers, though they do not own a meaningful non-league win (next chance on Saturday vs. Gonzaga).
Temple (SUR 14-7, RPI-56, SOS-41)...The Owls need to be included in this discussion because some of their early-season losses came before several key transfers would gain eligibility, and Fran Dunphy’s team owns the best non-league win in the American thanks to its Dec. 22 rout at the Wells Fargo Center over Top Ten Kansas. A recent three-game skid vs. the AAC leaders has pushed the Owls back in the at-large queue, but there is still plenty of time for Dunphy to make the Dance for what would be the seventh time in his eight seasons coaching at Temple.
ATLANTIC 10
At the moment we are not sticking out our necks too far to have Virginia Commonwealth beyond any question as a Dance qualifier. Others in the A-10 are close, and there are enough soft touches in the bottom half of the loop this term to provide some needed wins for contenders, which could make the A-10 as much as a 4-bid league in March.
Dayton (SUR 16-3, RPI-25, SOS-94)...We were close to putting the Flyers alongside VCU and safely into the field. But just in case, let’s make sure Archie Miller’s team doesn’t begin to wobble in the next few weeks. Still, the Flyers have plenty of pieces back from their Elite Eight team of last season and don’t have any bad losses as of yet. On current course should be safe by mid-February.
George Washington (SUR 16-5, RPI-50, SOS-153)...We had the Colonials into the field in our most-recent projection of the 68-team NCAA bracket, and GW would still probably fall on the safe side of the cut line despite the beatdown it suffered at midweek vs. VCU. Good wins over DePaul and Wichita, the latter in the finals of the December Diamond Head Classic, should bode well with the Selection Committee, but after a recent loss to La Salle, the Colonials have to avoid too many other bad slips in the remainder of the A-10 season.
Davidson (SUR 14-4, RPI-40, SOS-103)...Some regional observers continue to wait for the Wildcats to wobble, as they are competing in a tougher neighborhood this term after their move from the SoCon. So far, so good, however, for Bob McKillop’s squad, which has been among the nation’s scoring leaders all season. Without a marquee non-league win, however, Davidson has less room for error than some of the other A-10 contenders.
Rhode Island (SUR 14-5, RPI-69, SOS-104)...Dan Hurley’s Rams have stayed in the at-large conversation through the first few weeks of conference play, though they have barely avoided disaster in recent games with respective one-point wins over lowly Duquesne and Fordham. Rhody’s current numbers, however, suggest it should be in the bubble mix entering February.
ATLANTIC COAST
We are not going too far out on a limb at the end of January by projecting Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina into the field of 68. But there could be room for as many as 3-5 other ACC reps depending upon performances in the next five weeks.
Syracuse (SUR 14-7, RPI-67, SOS-73)...By this stage it is pretty apparent that this is not a vintage Jim Boeheim ’Cuse edition. But the computer numbers suggest the Orange are not far away from favorable at-large territory. Still, Boeheim will probably need to claim a couple of higher-profile scalps in the ACC, as the best non-league win looks to be against another “bubbler” team, Iowa.
Miami-Florida (SUR 14-6, RPI-37, SOS-43)...As of today, the Canes would likely land a good distance to the safe side of the Big Dance cut line, but just when we are about to put Jim Larranaga’s team in the Louisville-Duke category and safely into the field comes another inexplicable effort such as Wednesday’s 70-50 shock loss at home to Georgia Tech. Earlier, Miami absorbed other puzzling double-digit home defeats vs. Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky, a couple of representative mid-majors but nonetheless not expected to whip the Canes on the road. With plenty of banana peels left in the ACC, we can’t put Miami safely into the field of 68 just yet.
NC State (SUR 13-9, PSR-47, SOS-3)...Three losses in a row (including a stinging home loss to Clemson at midweek) have put the Wolfpack on the wrong side of the cut line at the end of January. But their at-large profile might be the best in the nation among nine-loss teams, thanks to that sterling SOS number (3!) and an RPI that would have it in consideration from the Selection Committee regardless. The win over Duke adds heft to the NCS profile, but the Pack has plenty of work to do to get itself back into serious at-large discussion.
Pitt (SUR 13-8, RPI-86, SOS-75)...Pitt only gets mention because we like to give HC Jamie Dixon the benefit of the doubt after missing the Dance just once in his previous eleven seasons with the Panthers, and for winning the CBI in the year he didn’t make the NCAA field. But Pitt has yet to record a win over an ACC heavyweight, and its only non-league success of note was a win over Kansas State at the Maui Classic. Deep longshot at-large candidate at best entering February.
Clemson (SUR 12-8, RPI-101. SOS-59)...We only include the Tigers because of their impressive 68-57 midweek win at NC State. Other recent wins over Syracuse and Pitt, however, suggest that perhaps Brad Brownell’s team can handle the second-tier ACC contenders. If the Tigers can get to 20 wins and claim one or two major ACC scalps along the way, they could get a look by the Selection Committee, though early losses to Winthrop and Gardner-Webb are significant demerits.
BIG 12
At the end of January, only Texas Tech can be safely eliminated from at-large consideration among Big 12 teams. And while the league is capable of cannibalizing itself, we do not believe it is going to cost the league more than one or two bids at most. At the present time we project six league sides (Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas) into the Dance, with three others still in contention.
Kansas State (SUR 12-9, RPI-85, SOS-38)...Given up for dead at the start of the month, K-State rolled off a surprising four-game win streak in early January to temporarily move to the top of the league table. Subsequent close losses to Iowa State and West Virginia have slowed the momentum, but we believe any team that can finish above .500 in this season’s Big 12 is going to get a favorable review from the Selection Committee. Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State have already fallen in league play, though Bruce Weber’s team does have one ugly wart (a loss to Texas Southern) from pre-league play that could come back to haunt it on Selection Sunday.
Oklahoma State (SUR 14-6, RPI-30, SOS-29)...The Cowboys would probably make the field of 68 today, with solid RPI and SOS numbers, though we suggest OSU might be at a bit more risk than most of the other Big 12 contenders due to no significant non-league wins (save perhaps vs. Memphis). Still, recent wins over Texas and Baylor can be filed away for use as needed with the Selection Committee, though OSU has lost 4 of its last 7 entering the weekend.
TCU (SUR 14-6, RPI-129, SOS-232)...The Horned Frogs’ current RPI and SOS numbers suggest they would not get a look from the Selection Committee, as their undefeated pre-league mark vs. a questionable slate has proved to be a bit of a mirage. Still, TCU is a much improved team under HC Trent Johnson, has come very close in recent losses (OT vs. Baylor and West Virginia, and a 3-point loss vs. Kansas), so it is not beyond reason to envision the Froggies turning things around if they can win a couple of these close games. But Big Dance at-large chances now seem very remote.
BIG EAST
At the moment we are projecting Villanova and Providence, plus, due to superb current RPI and SOS numbers, Georgetown and Butler, into the field, though there is certainly time for the Hoyas and Bulldogs to play themselves into the NIT. At the moment, however, the Big East bubble watch involves a few other teams.
Xavier (SUR 14-7, RPI-26, SOS-14)...The RPI and SOS numbers still have time to change, as of course does the SU record, so we are not going to put Xavier into the field of 68 quite yet, though the Musketeers would probably fall safely into the Dance as of the end of January. Still, not a lot of marquee wins, though the midweek success at Georgetown gave the X a season sweep of the Hoyas and its first win streak since before New Year’s. At the moment, the Muskies would probably have to play themselves out of the field of 68.
Seton Hall (SUR 14-6, RPI-43, SOS-48)...Just when we are about to write off the Pirates, they deliver an effort like Wednesday’s impressive win at Marquette. Which was preceded by three straight defeats, including a pair of losses vs. Butler. The Villanova win could end up being a huge dividend for the Hall to cash on Selection Sunday, though we would advise the Pirates not to fall beneath .500 in the conference table if it wants to stay on the Big Dance radar.
St. John’s (SUR 13-7, RPI-51, SOS-16)...Steve Lavin’s crew has gone from being safely projected into the field as recently as last week to now likely being one of the first teams “out” on Selection Sunday. Having fallen to 2-5 in the league race after a bad midweek loss at Creighton, the Red Storm is now officially in trouble. Lavin does have a few non-league wins (Minnesota, Syracuse, Saint Mary’s) that could come in handy, but talkative Steve os advised to not give the Committee an excuse to bypass the Red Storm by falling beneath .500 in the league race.
BIG TEN
The Big Ten is as deep as it has been in a long while, though at the moment we are only projecting Wisconsin, ACC transfer Maryland, and Ohio State as certain bets to make the field. But there could be as many as 8 or 9 Big Ten reps invited to the Dance, pending results over the next five weeks.
Michigan (SUR 13-8, RPI-57, SOS-21)...John Beilein is having to call upon all of his considerable coaching savvy to steer the Wolverines into contention, but entering the weekend they sit third in the Big Ten table, and any team above .500 in this rugged conference is likely to get a favorable ruling from the Committee. Thus far, the Wolverines look to be dealing well with the recent season-ending foot injury to top scorer Caris LeVert, pushing Wisconsin into OT and then whipping Nebraska at Fritz Crisler Arena. Beilein might not get as deep in March with this edition as he has done with some of his recent teams, but regional observers are already raving about this latest coaching job done by “The Master.”
Indiana (SUR 15-6, RPI-35. SOS-42)...At the moment, IU is probably an NCAA qualifier, but we have moved the Hoosiers out of the “sure thing” category after a couple of soft performances in a row, including double-digit road losses at Ohio State and Purdue. We are not ruling out a late-season fade by the Hoosiers, whose defense is questionable and whose HC Tom Crean is a few more losses away from falling into some hot water in Bloomington. Will the pressure get to IU in February?
Michigan State (SUR 13-7, RPI-45, SOS-20)...We are relatively sure that Tim Izzo will steer the Spartans into yet another Dance. But a slower than usual break from the gate, a bad loss to Texas Southern in non-league play, and languishing at mid-table in the Big Ten entering February have MSU needing to do more work before it can feel safe. Still, we’d be shocked if Izzo’s team isn’t dancing again in March.
Iowa (SUR 13-7, RPI-52, SOS-34)...The Hawkeyes have to be careful, as they might be on a slippery slope with back-to-back losses at Wisconsin and Purdue, and a tough stretch of games (Wisconsin again, Michigan, Maryland, and Minnesota) dead ahead. But Fran McCaffery’s team does have road wins at North Carolina, Ohio State, and Minnesota already, and also beat the Buckeyes at home, so there is enough heft in the results to currently generate a favorable reaction from the Committee. We’ll see how Iowa looks in a few weeks after the upcoming gauntlet. Strongly advised to hold serve in Iowa City in any remaining conference games.
Purdue (SUR 13-8, RPI-93, SOS-68)...Though the Boilermakers’ RPI and SOS numbers leave something to be desired, Matt Painter’s team suddenly looks rather interesting, with recent wins over Iowa and Indiana to move above .500 in league play. With a pair of 7-footers in AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas, Purdue has a couple of unique weapons, and has caused some matchup problems for several league foes. Keep an eye on these guys.
Nebraska (SUR 12-8, RPI-95, SOS-81)...Tim Miles got the Cornhuskers to the Dance a year ago, but Nebraska is having all sorts of trouble recently on the road, and the schedule is not going to get any easier in February. Right now, Nebraska is a good way on the wrong side of the cut line.
Illinois (SUR 13-8, RPI-61, SOS-57)...The Illini impressed as usual early in the season, but have been a sub-.500 team since the start of December and are likely without key G Rayvonte Rice for the remainder of the season due to injury. John Groce’s bunch cannot continue to languish beneath .500 in league play and expect a call from the Committee on Selection Sunday.
MISSOURI VALLEY
The Valley is at least a two-bid league this season with Wichita State and Northern Iowa projected to safely make the field of 68. Is there another team in the mix that could swell the number to three on Selection Sunday?
Evansville (SUR 16-5, RPI-70, SOS-115)...While the Purple Aces are probably on the wrong side of the cut line at the present time, they are a potential entry to watch in the next five weeks, with an experienced lineup (all starters back from last season) and a possible Valley MVP in G D.J. Balentine (19.7 ppg). Already with a win over Northern Iowa, E’ville can really up its profile by doing the same in a rematch vs. Wichita State on February 22, though the Shockers recently scored an easy 20-point win at the Ford Center.
MOUNTAIN WEST
The Mountain dropped from five Big Dance bids two years ago to just two bids last season, and a best-case scenario probably has the league at no more than three this season. No sure things yet, as several bubble riders dot the landscape heading into February.
San Diego State (SUR 16-5, RPI-29, SOS-66)...Right now the Aztecs appear the most likely at-large qualifier from the Mountain thanks to RPI and SOS numbers. Though this year’s edition looks down from some of HC Steve Fisher’s recent entries, wins over Utah and BYU in pre-league play should come in handy on Selection Sunday as the Aztecs likely make it to the Dance once more.
Colorado State (SUR 18-3, RPI-33, SOS-117)...With an undefeated pre-league mark and a win at the Great Alaska Shootout, the Rams came into league play as the highest-regarded Mountain rep, but CSU has now taken three league losses to drop out of the conference lead. Still, there are enough soft spots in the league to prevent the Rams from dropping too far. Right now, CSU is probably the number two team in the league and would be into the field of 68 as of the start of February, even with its midweek loss at Boise State, but the Committee is not likely to look favorably upon too many more losses in Mountain play.
Wyoming (SUR 17-4, RPI-81, SOS-215)...The computer numbers do not much like the Cowboys, whose questionable pre-league slate could come back to haunt them. That’s why we believe Wyo, despite an earlier win at CSU, has less room for error than other league contenders, and why a result such as the midweek setback at Utah State now looms ominous.
Boise State (SUR 15-6, RPI-53, SOS-92)...We have moved the Broncos into the discussion after their rousing midweek home win over CSU. And that was minus sharpshooter Anthony Drmic, out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. The win over the Rams was the fifth straight for Leon Rice’s team, which came on the heels of a four-game losing streak. No significant non-league wins, but recent form suggests Boise might be approaching the fringe of the bubble, and will carry much momentum into February.
PAC-12
This is not a vintage year in the Pac-12, with the likes of UCLA, Colorado, Oregon, Arizona State, and Cal having dropped off considerably from a season ago. There are three solid Pac projections for the Dance (Arizona, Utah, and Stanford), and some real question marks elsewhere. Those three bids are all the Pac might receive on Selection Sunday, and only a couple of other sides look capable of squeezing on to the bubble.
Oregon State (SUR 14-6, RPI-72, SOS-122)...The surprise team in the conference, if not the country, under first-year HC Wayne Tinkle (ex-Montana), the Beavers have proven very hard to beat at home, where they knocked off Arizona a few weeks ago, but as of yet have not looked nearly as menacing on the road. With the bottom half of the league looking as if it can provide some more wins, however, OSU can probably ride on the bubble into March.
Oregon (SUR 14-7, RPI-71, SOS-64)...The Ducks would currently be on the outside looking in at the field of 68, though their numbers suggest a chance to get back into the mix with a mini win streak. Remember, Dana Altman’s team lost a lot of firepower from last year’s Big Dance qualifier, there have been some distractions surrounding the program, and efforts have been inconsistent, such as the blowout loss on Wednesday at Arizona. A win over Illinois is about all Oregon can brag about in pre-league play.
Washington (14-6, RPI-48, SOS-86)...The Huskies were undefeated and ranked 13th in the country just over a month ago, but near the midway point in the Pac-12 race are under .500 in league play and fading fast. Worse, HC Lorenzo Romar recently dismissed 7-0 Fresno State transfer C Robert Upshaw from the squad. Upshaw was a major presence on defense and the boards, and Romar does not have a comparable replacement on the roster. After an uplifting first six weeks of the campaign, U-Dub might have been the nation’s biggest disappointment in January. Not close in a midweek home loss to Stanford, U-Dub’s first game minus Upshaw, which does not paint a positive portrait for the remainder of the season.
SEC
The SEC looms as the Committee’s most interesting case study, as it is hard to gauge how the non-Kentucky portion of the loop is going to be judged. Much as there seems to be a pro-SEC bias in football, the opposite has become true lately in basketball (outside of Kentucky and, in recent years, perhaps Florida). Still, we think that beyond Coach Cal’s Cats, teams such as Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia are looking very good for bids, with as many as five others lurking on the bubble.
Texas A&M (SUR 14-5, RPI-31. SOS-52)...The Aggies would probably be in the field of 68 at the end of January. No bad losses yet this season, and a double-OT near-miss vs. Kentucky is not going to hurt the Ags in the eyes of the Selection Committee. A little more work to do, however, as the best win to date is against LSU, and the Ags lost most of their significant non-league games.
Ole Miss (SUR 13-7, RPI-46, SOS-17)...The Rebs’ SOS number is likely going to stay strong and perhaps come in handy on Selection Sunday. At the moment we would have Ole Miss straddling the cut line, however, as non-league losses to Charleston Southern, TCU, and Western Kentucky could come back to bite the Rebs. Earlier wins over Creighton and Oregon are not looking as good as they did at the time, either. With no soft touches in the SEC, the Rebs had better be careful, as they could easily slide off of the Big Dance bubble.
Tennessee (SUR 12-7, RPI-53, SOS-32)...The Vols, depleted by graduation and the departure of HC Cuonzo Martin to Cal, have been a pleasant surprise for new HC Donnie Tyndall. Very competitive in recent close losses to Texas A&M & Arkansas, after beating the Razorbacks a couple of weeks ago in Knoxville. RPI and SOS numbers are good enough to suggest that UT could hang on the bubble as long as it stays above .500 in league play.
Florida (SUR 11-9, RPI-71, SOS-19)...Although Billy Donovan’s team is well below the Elite Eight and Final Four teams of the past three years, the Gators should probably not be dismissed quite yet after their recent 52-50 win at Alabama. But after losing most of their significant non-league games, Florida is probably going to have to get to 11-7 or 12-6 in SEC play to get the Committee interested. Donovan gets two cracks at Kentucky in the last month of the regular season.
Alabama (SUR 13-7, RPI-66, SOS-44)...The Tide is likely to sit on the bubble for a while longer, but has not yet made a significant move into safe territory. The midweek home loss to Florida was a stinger, and Bama is headed in the wrong direction, losing 4 of its last 5, which could put HC Anthony Grant in some hot water. Missed its best chances for significant non-league wins prior to New Year’s with losses to Xavier and Wichita State.
WCC
Gonzaga is a Kentucky-like as a lock for the Dance, but the WCC is probably not a one-bid league this term, with a couple of other possible at-large candidates.
Saint Mary’s (SUR 16-4, RPI-49, SOS-106)...The Gaels have lost only once (at the Zags) since Christmas and have put together a fairly compelling at-large case that would have been a bit stronger had they not wasted a stirring comeback at St. John’s on December 19. That was also Saint Mary’s best chance at a marquee non-league win, however, and it remains to be seen how the Selection Committee will view SMC’s domination of the non-Gonzaga portion of the WCC. The Gaels could help their at-large cause enormously with a win in the rematch vs. the Zags at Moraga on February 21.
BYU (SUR 15-7, RPI-62, SOS-67)...The Cougs are a bit behind the Gaels in the WCC queue at the moment due to a recent loss at Moraga. BYU has also had some other problems in the WCC with losses to underdog Pepperdine and San Diego as well. The Cougs can probably afford another loss to Gonzaga, and likely again in the WCC Tourney, and stay on the bubble as long as they don’t find more banana peels in league play.
