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Birmingham Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: East Carolina Pirates vs. Florida Gators
Venue: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
Date: Saturday, Jan. 3, 2015
Time/TV: 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Florida -7, Total 56

East Carolina and Florida had high hopes for the 2014 season. Both schools were close to having big seasons, but a series of gut-wrenching losses for each team has resulted in a trip to the Birmingham Bowl.

The Pirates and Gators will square off at Legion Field in the Iron City on Saturday at noon Eastern. ESPN will provide the telecast.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (6-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can back ECU on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

East Carolina (8-4 SU, 5-7) raced out to a 6-1 start in its first seven games, including wins at Va. Tech (28-21) and vs. North Carolina (70-41). The lone defeat came in a 33-23 loss at South Carolina as a 14-point underdog.

But on Nov. 1 at Temple, ECU's season took a turn for the worse. It couldn't overcome five lost fumbles, including a 63-yard scoop and score and lost 20-10 to the Owls despite owning a 428-135 advantage in total offense.

Twelve days later at Cincinnati, ECU allowed a late lead to slip away when the Bearcats made a 47-yard field goal with 15 seconds left. The Pirates wasted special performances from Breon Allen, Shane Carden and Justin Hardy.

Carden completed 35-of-61 passes for 425 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Hardy hauled in 15 receptions for 188 yards and one score. Allen rushed 12 times for 129 yards and one TD.

Ruffin McNeil's squad won its next two games and squared off with UCF in its regular-season finale at home. ECU trailed the Knights 26-9 early in the fourth quarter, only to battle back and take the lead behind three TD passes from Carden, who hit Hardy with a 13-yard scoring strike to put his team ahead 30-26 with 2:17 left.

However, on the game's final play, UCF attempted a Hail Mary and it was answered by Breshad Perriman, who gave the Knights a 32-30 win with the 51-yard TD catch.

Florida won three of its first four games with the lone defeat coming at Alabama by a 42-21 count. In a critical Week 7 showdown vs. LSU at The Swamp, the Gators led by 10 midway through the second quarter. They went ahead 24-20 with 6:10 remaining in the fourth quarter.

On LSU's ensuing drive, it converted a 3rd-and-25 play and eventually scored to go up 27-24 with 2:40 left. UF promptly marched into the red zone and in a third-and-goal situation, an easy TD pass was dropped by back-up TE Tevin Westbrook. Therefore, UF settled for a short field goal to tie the game.

Will Muschamp's team would get the ball back with time to get into field-goal range. With 24 seconds remaining, UF was on the fringe of LSU territory before Jeff Driskel was intercepted. The interception return set up a 50-yard field goal with three ticks remaining to lift LSU to an improbable 27-24 victory.

One week later, Florida allowed touchdowns by Missouri via a kick return, punt return, fumble return and a pick-six. The Tigers, who didn't get over 100 yards of total offense until the fourth quarter, easily won a 42-13 decision.

At that point, Muschamp's fate appeared to be sealed. But after an open date, Florida played inspired football in Jacksonville, smashing Georgia by a 38-20 count behind huge performances from RBs Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor. UF won the next week by cruising past Vanderbilt 34-10 as a 14.5-point road favorite.

With a 5-3 record, one that should've been 6-3 if not for the cancellation of the home opener vs. Idaho, Muschamp appeared to have a chance to keep his job if the Gators could run the table with wins vs. South Carolina, vs. Eastern Ky. and at FSU.

On Nov. 15 at The Swamp, UF took a 17-10 over the Gamecocks on a one-yard TD run by Jones late in the third quarter. Florida nearly went ahead by two TDs late in the final stanza, but a Treon Harris TD run was called back due to a holding penalty. Several plays later, UF could've gone ahead by two possessions, only to have a short field goal blocked.

Nevertheless, UF got a stop and had the ball with a chance to run the clock out. It went three and out, though, and was forced to punt with less than 30 ticks left. The punt got blocked, once again giving Steve Spurrier's team life. It took advantage, scoring with 12 seconds remaining after Mike Davis recovered his own fumble in the end zone.

After the Gators kicked a field goal for a 20-17 lead in overtime, South Carolina answered and ended the game on a Dylan Thompson four-yard TD run. Less than 24 hours later, Muschamp was fired with the Gators looking at a 5-4 record. If UF had beaten LSU and South Carolina and been allowed to play Idaho, it could've easily been 8-2 at that point.

In the regular-season finale at Florida St., Muschamp's last game as the head coach, the game went much like all of the games during Coach Boom's four-year tenure. Muschamp had a terrific defensive game plan, one that forced former Heisman winner Jameis Winston to throw four interceptions and finish with a career-low in passing yards.

Three of Winston's picks were in the first quarter, but the first two resulted in just field goals for UF. After the third interception, the Gators had a first-and-goal situation with a 9-0 lead, only to see all its momentum go up in flames with one ill-fated play.

Harris rolled out after a play-action fake and threw a short pass to Westbrook. You could argue that Harris might have put a little too much zip on the throw, but it hit Westbrook in the hands, just like Jeff Driskel's pass to him did in the end zone against LSU. Westbrook couldn't handle the throw, which bounced in the air and was intercepted and returned 94 yards for a TD.

Trailing 24-19 in the second half, the Gators missed two field goals. Still, they had the ball with a chance to win in the final two minutes. UF advanced into FSU territory thanks to a pass-interference call on a fourth-down incompletion. Facing 4th and 11 several plays later, Harris had DeMarcus Robinson wide open over the middle, but the freshman QB threw the ball behind him and Robinson couldn't make what would've been a spectacular catch.

Both teams are going to be without key players for various reasons. ECU lost leading rusher Breon Allen to a torn MCL at practice on Wednesday. Allen rushed for a team-best 869 yards and eight TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Also, the Pirates' best defensive lineman Terry Williams and starting safety Domonique Lennon are 'out' after being ruled academically ineligible.

Florida won't have one of its best pass rushers, Bryan Cox Jr., who had hip surgery in December. Also, special-teams ace and sixth-year senior Andre DeBose chose not to play in the bowl game and to get on with the rest of his career. Finally, starting DT Darious Cummings didn't make the trip due to a violation of team rules.

The 'over' is 8-3 overall for UF, but the 'under' has cashed in two of its last three games. UF's games have averaged a combined score of 51.6 points per game.

Totals have been an overall wash for ECU (6-6), but the 'over' has hit in three of its last four games.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Florida went 0-2 ATS in a pair of games as single-digit favorites.

-- ECU went 2-0 ATS in two games as an underdog this year.

-- ECU has lost two of its three bowl games since McNeill took over for Skip Holtz. The one victory came last year, however, as the Pirates thumped Ohio 37-20 as 14-point 'chalk' at the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl.

-- Carden is the all-time leading passer in school history, passing alum and former Jacksonville Jaguar David Garrard earlier this season. Carden has 84 career TD passes compared to just 28 interceptions. Carden connected on 65.0 percent of his throws this season for 4,309 yards with a 28/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- Hardy came into his senior year already holding the record for receiving yards in ECU history. He padded his stats in 2014, catching 110 balls for 1,334 yards and nine TDs.

-- Harris orchestrated a comeback win for UF at Tennessee. He appeared poised to become the starter for the LSU game, but a sexual-assault allegation kept him out of uniform against the Tigers. He has started every game since then, however. The true freshman from Miami completed only 50.0 percent of his throws, but he took care of the ball for the most part with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. Harris rushed for 291 yards and three TDs, averaging 4.5 YPC.

-- UF's Jones rushed for a team-best 817 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC. He has announced his intention to declare for the NFL Draft after this game. Taylor rushed for 565 yards and six TDs, averaging 5.0 YPC.

-- Robinson led UF in catches (47) and receiving yards (774) and had seven TD receptions.

-- New Florida head coach Jim McElwain has hired a new defensive coordinator (Geoff Collins from Mississippi St.) and offensive coordinator (Doug Nussmeier from Michigan). It's not official yet but many reports have indicated that the next hire will be Randy Shannon, the former head coach at Miami who has been an assistant at Arkansas the last two years.

-- Main reason to watch UF-ECU: The matchup between Hardy and UF All-American CB Vernon Hargreaves III.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Birmingham Bowl betting preview: ECU vs. Florida

East Carolina Panthers vs. Florida Gators (-7, 56)

Game to be played at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Florida - ranked ninth nationally in total defense - will be challenged by the country's top quarterback-receiver combination. American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year Shane Carden has hit NCAA-record holder Justin Hardy for 27 career touchdowns - the most among active duos. Carden averages 359.1 passing yards - with five 400-yard games this season - while the Gators are allowing 194.2 yards through the air, 24th in the nation.

Freshman starting quarterback Treon Harris is expected to play for Florida after being charged with a second-degree misdemeanor Dec. 13 after operating a vehicle without a valid license. Two small bags of marijuana were also found in the car but Harris and freshmen teammates Jalen Tabor and J.C. Jackson were not charged because the car did not belong to any of them. The Florida athletic department released a statement Friday afternoon saying "We are aware of the incident and are dealing with it internally and their bowl status hasn't changed."

D.J. Durkin, who will not return to Florida after spending two seasons as the defensive coordinator, will serve as interim head coach for the bowl game while recently hired head coach Jim McElwain has been watching practices. McElwain hired Mississippi State defensive coordinator Geoff Collins on Dec. 16 to fill the same role at Florida. "(Interim coach) is one of the hardest positions to be in," said Pirates coach Ruffin McNeill, who was the Texas Tech interim coach for the 2010 Alamo Bowl before taking the East Carolina job.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 7-point faves. That was adjusted to -6.5 before moving back to -7. The total opened at 57 and is down to 56.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for an 88 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing toward the north endzone at nine mph.

INJURY REPORT: East Carolina - WR Trevon Brown (Probable, knee), RB Breon Allen (Out, leg).

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Hardy - who won the 2014 Burlsworth Trophy as the best player who began their career as a walk-on - owns the NCAA record for career receptions (376) and leads the nation with 9.2 catches per game. Carden has thrown for 4,309 yards and 28 touchdowns with eight interceptions in 551 attempts. The Pirates - ranked No. 2 in passing (367.3) and fifth in total offense (532.8) - should have freshman receiver Trevon Brown (four TDs before a knee injury on Oct. 23) back for the bowl game.

ABOUT FLORIDA (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Harris has thrown for 633 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions and run for another 240 yards and two scores since taking over as starter five games ago. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor have combined for 1,382 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and Demarcus Robinson leads the Gators - who have lost five turnovers in their last five games after committing 15 in the previous four games - with 47 catches for 774 yards and seven touchdowns. Leading tackler Antonio Morrison needs two stops to become the first Gator with 100 tackles since Ahmad Black in 2010.

TRENDS:

* Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Over is 6-2 in Gators last eight bowl games.
* Over is 7-2 in Pirates last nine neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of bettors are taking the Gators.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thunderstorms forecast for Birmingham Bowl
Andrew Avery

Weather forecasts are calling for an 88 percent chance of thunderstorms during the Birmingham Bowl when the Florida Gators and East Carolina Pirates faceoff from Legion Field Saturday.

Conditions on the field will be windy as well, as predictions have wind blowing toward the north endzone at around nine to 10 miles per hour.

Books currently have the Gators as 7-point favorites and the total at 56 for this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Birmingham Bowl 1/3

East Carolina covered its last six games vs ACC/SEC teams; motivation here is all in their favor, as Florida has interim coach. Pirates lost three of last five games after 6-1 start; they're 2-0 as underdog this year, 2-2 in games with single digit spread. Florida is 2-3 in such games. Favorites won/covered this game three of last four years; this bowl was decided by 13+ points each of last five years. Florida has changed coaches, they didn't play in bowl game LY- they've won four of last five bowls, but last win was in '11. East Carolina lost four of last five bowls, with only win LY as 14-point favorite over MAC squad.

Bowls so far: underdogs are 21-13, over is 22-12.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

E CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. FLORIDA (6 - 5) - 1/3/2015, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLORIDA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | TOLEDO at ARKANSAS ST
Play Under - Neutral field teams where the first half total is 32 to 35 outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season
27-7 over the last 10 seasons. ( 79.4% | 19.3 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

JANUARY 3, 12:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. FLORIDA
East Carolina is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
East Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Florida's last 11 games
Florida is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Birmingham Bowl
East Carolina vs Florida
Past two Compass Bowls played OVER after six in a row played UNDER
Florida is 8-3 ATS past 11 bowl games
Pirates 5-1 ATS past two seasons as underdogs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Bowls
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, January 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA vs. FLORIDA (Birmingham Bowl)...
Gators 5-15 last 20 as chalk. Also 10-18-1 last 29 on board. ECU dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line in 2014 but all of those were as chalk, Pirates have covered last 4 as dog and 7 of last 8 vs. non-conference opposition.

ECU, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card History
By Bruce Marshall

Where did the time go? We have been around so long that we long precede the "wildcard" concept, which was not officially introduced into pro football until the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The seeds of the wildcard, however, were planted in previous seasons when the occasional conference playoff was necessitated, and when the AFL experimented with an extra round of playoff action in its final season of 1969. But once the wildcard arrived, it was here to stay in the NFL, one of former commissioner Pete Rozelle's many innovations that forever changed the landscape of pro football.

It was perhaps inevitable that an expanded playoff format would materialize, especially after the league began adding expansion teams in the 1960s (when the AFL also came into existence), although it took a while for the idea to resonate. Ironically, the trigger turned out to be the 1965 Western Conference playoff between the old Baltimore Colts and Green Bay Packers, who had tied with 10-3-1 marks in the regular season, necessitating a one-game playoff for the right to meet the defending title holders and Eastern Conference champion Browns the next week. Colts-Packers was no artistic masterpiece, but provided such compelling viewing in Green Bay's 13-10 overtime win that Rozelle couldn't help but figure out that expanding the postseason to include an extra round of drama, such as the Colts and Pack provided, would prove a boon to league coffers and be irresistible to CBS, which had exclusive TV rights for the NFL in those days. And when expansion added the New Orleans Saints as the league's 16th team in 1967, Rozelle jumped at the opportunity to revamp the playoff format as part of a reconfigured league that would be divided into four, four-team divisions. Naturally, the winners of the Western Conference divisions (the newly-christened "Coastal" and "Central") and those in the East (the "Capitol" and "Century" Divisions) would compete against each other in an extra round of playoff action that was a hit with the pro football audience from the outset.

The old AFL also experimented with an aforementioned, expanded playoff format in its last season of existence in 1969 when it would invite second-place finishers from both its old Eastern and Western Divisions (who turned out to be the Oilers and Chiefs) to compete with the division winners Jets and Raiders in a semifinal round. Though Rozelle would not officially coin the "wildcard" term until 1970, the '69 Chiefs were indeed the first "wildcard" Super Bowl champion in 1969.

The merger year of 1970 was when the "wildcard" became a permanent part of the pro football lexicon. The first "official" wildcards were the Dolphins (AFC) and Lions (NFC)...the latter emerging from what we at TGS still believe was one of the best stretch drives in our 58 seasons of publishing.

The 1970 season was memorable (George Blanda, Tom Dempsey, and the debut of Monday Night Football), and the NFC playoff chase that season eventually settled into a breathless seven-team dogfight for the four available postseason slots, right up to the final weekend, with the new "wildcard" adding an extra level of intrigue to the proceedings. NFL fans were mesmerized; George Allen's Rams and the rival 49ers were going toe-to-toe in the West, the Vikings clear in the Central, but the Lions very much in the wildcard picture, with the Cardinals, Giants, and Cowboys all thundering down the stretch in the East. The latter appeared to be St. Louis' to lose until the Big Red stumbled in December, losing at Detroit, at home to the Giants, and by 1 point at Washington to close the campaign and eliminate itself from the postseason.

For a while, it seemed as if the Giants, led by QB Fran Tarkenton, were going to win the East; a penultimate 34-17 win at Busch Stadium over the fading Cards in Week 13 opened the door for the G-Men to capture the division as long as they could beat the Rams at Yankee Stadium on the final day of the regular season. But George Allen's team, needing a win to stay alive in the West, throttled the Giants, 31-3, effectively ending New York's playoff hopes. At 9-5, the Giants were thus bypassed by Detroit, a 20-0 winner over the Pack (the second Detroit blanking of Green Bay that season) to claim the wildcard, and Dallas, which had been surging since a 38-0 mid-November Cotton Bowl loss to the Cardinals but which had taken the East by winning five in a row to close the regular season, with depleted Houston not offering much resistance to Dallas in a 52-10 Cowboy win on closing day. Rather incredibly, the Cowboys' Doomsday Defense had not allowed a TD in its final four regular-season games! Meanwhile, after beating the Giants earlier in the day, the Rams needed the Raiders to beat their cross-bay rival 49ers on the final day to give them, and not San Francisco, the NFC West title, but the 49ers took away most of the mystery in the early going en route to a 38-7 romp to sew up the West.

There was also great concern heading into the last week of the regular season that a coin flip might have to determine the NFC wildcard rep. All it would have taken was a win by the Giants to force Dallas and Detroit into a coin flip for the wildcard spot. Fortunately (though maybe not for the Giants), we didn't have to endure that scenario. In subsequent years, more extensive tiebreaker procedures were set in place to prevent the possibility of a coin flip deciding a playoff participant.

In the 44 years since, we're still waiting for a playoff chase to replicate the NFC charge down the stretch in that merger year of 1970.

The first official post-merger Rozelle wildcard team to participate in the playoffs was Detroit, which would face Dallas at the old Cotton Bowl on Saturday, December 26, a day before AFC wildcard Miami would face the Raiders in muddy Oakland. Neither of those 1970 playoff games involving the wildcards, however, were artistic masterpieces.

The Lions and Cowboys (who meet again this weekend) would engage in a defensive war for the ages, featuring perhaps the most inept passing displays in postseason history. The teams combined to complete 11 of 38 (!) passes for 130 yards between Lion QBs Greg Landry and Bill Munson and Cowboys QB Craig Morton. Dallas would mostly control the game with its "Doomsday Defense," which was in the aforementioned process of not allowing a TD in a 23-quarter span spreading from late in the regular season all of the way until the 3rd Q of the NFC title game vs. the 49ers. Yet while Duane Thomas and Walt Garrison banged for a combined 202 YR, the Cowboy offense could not manage more than a Mike Clark first-quarter field goal. Leading 3-0 in the 4th Q, Dallas was repelled by a Lions goal-line stand, only to see DE George Andrie sack Landry for a safety and a 5-0 lead a few plays later. Despite the odd scoreline, there would be a grandstand finish, as Detroit had one last gasp. On its final possession, Lions backup QB Munson would hit former USC sprinter Earl McCullough on a 39-yard 4th-down bomb deep into Dallas territory before Cowboy DB Mel Renfro intercepted a tipped Munson pass in the final seconds to preserve the 5-0 final, which was the Cowboys' second baseball scoreline in three games (Dallas had survived a must-win game at Cleveland, 6-2, in the penultimate regular-season week to stay in the NFC East race).

The following day, Don Shula's emerging Dolphins, along with third-year expansionist and AFC Central champ Cincinnati, the surprise packages of 1970, played their first-ever playoff game against the Raiders at a muddy Oakland Coliseum. Miami, which had upset Oakland 20-13 at the Orange Bowl almost three months earlier on October 3 (an early signal that the Shula Dolphind meant business), played John Madden's team evenly for most of the day in the slop, but the Raiders would break the game open with two big plays in the second half, first a 50-yard Willie Brown interception TD, stepping in front of a Bob Griese sideline pass, that broke a 7-7 tie in the 3rd Q, then Daryle Lamonica's 82-yard TD pass to WR Rod Sherman in the 4th Q that extended the lead to 21-7 before Griese hit ex-Colt Willie Richardson with a late TD pass to cut the final score to 21-14. Hardly an auspicious start for the post-merger wildcards, but they were here to stay!

Enough of the trips down memory lane. The playoffs would next be altered in 1978 with the addition of a second wildcard from each conference; more adjustments came in 1990, when a third wildcard team was added to each conference, upping the total number of postseason participants to 12. This also doubled the number of games on wildcard weekend (from 2 to 4), as now only the top two division winners from each conference would get a "bye" in the first round, and the division winner with the worst record was thrown in with the wildcard teams in the initial playoff weekend.

When the NFL eventually reconfigured its divisions (from 6 to 8) in 2002, the wildcard round wasn't fundamentally altered. Although there would technically be only two wildcards (as opposed to three), there would still be the same number of four games on wildcard weekend, which then featured the two division winners with the worst records along with two wildcard entries from each conference.

Historically, the wildcard round has been somewhat-fertile territory for the underdogs, who over the years have generally fared better in this round than in subsequent Division Round or conference championships. That trend somewhat revived a season ago, when three of the four wildcard games were nailbiters, with two of them (Kansas City-Indy and San Francisco-Green Bay) ending as "pushes" vs. the spread, while underdogs New Orleans (at Philadelphia) and San Diego (at Cincinnati) would win outright. Dogs, however, had been 1-7 vs. the line in wildcard games the previous two seasons. Which should only serve as a reminder that trends with such a thin number of examples are apt to turn around on a moment's notice; after all, in 2010, all four wildcard-round underdogs were pointspread winners. The shorter-priced (1-3 point) dogs stand 28-19-4 vs. the number since '78, including 11-5-2 against the spread the last five years. Home dogs, a bit rare in playoff action, are 13-5-1 vs. the points in first-round games since '78, though we have had one of those each of the past two seasons, and neither covered (the Redskins falling to the Seahawks two years ago, and the Pack losing by three while forging a pointspread push with the 49ers last January).

Still, for the most part of over the past 36 seasons, wildcard-round underdogs have generally fared well. Many insiders believe the absence of the top two conference seeds in the first round has contributed to better overall underdog marks than in subsequent rounds. But it's worth noting that one-sided results are still fairly common in the wildcard-round games, with 16 of 36 contests since 2005 being decided by 14 points or more, as have close to half of them (53 of 118) since the wildcard round was introduced in 1978. "Totals" results have also trended "under" (7-1) the past two seasons, although those results have been fairly well split ("unders" 27-24-1) since 2001.

Following are the spread results for wildcard playoff games since 1978 (excluding the 1982 "strike" season, when all 16 playoff teams participated in first-round games).

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978

CATEGORY VS. POINTS

1-3 pt. dogs... 28-19-4
3 1/2- 6 1/2 pt. dogs... 18-19-1
7-pt. or more dogs... 14-14
Home dogs... 13-5-1
Road dogs... 46-47-4

Margins of victory (118 total games)
-- 25 games have been decided by 1-3 points
-- 26 games by 4-7 points
-- 14 games by 8-13 points
-- 53 games have been decided by 14 points or more

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Card Preview
By ASA

Carolina (-6, 38) vs. Arizona – Saturday, 4:35 PM EST
The Panthers, winners of four straight, snuck into the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record as the NFC South champions. Cam Newton has played his best football over the final quarter of the season, tossing for 541 yards (61%) and 5 TD with just 1 INT while rushing for 197 yards and 3 scores as well. Credit the Panthers rushing attack, led by Newton and a resurgent Johnathan Stewart (486 yards on 5.3 YPC over the final five games), for making this offense dynamic during the final stretch run. Defensively they’ll give Arizona a real test as the Panthers have allowed just 43 total points over the last four games. Carolina has notched 10 sacks over that span while holding opposing quarterbacks to just 55.9% passing for pass 203.8 YPG with 3 TD and 5 INT. That’s not a good sign for an Arizona team coming in with their third string quarterback starting (there’s a slim chance Stanton will go if his knee is healthy, but we’re fully expecting Ryan Lindley under center).

Lindley has 2 pass TD and 4 INT in a little over two games of work while completing just 48.4%. Granted he has garnered those stats against three of the better defenses in the NFL (San Francisco, Seattle, and St. Louis), but Carolina’s defense will be no walk in the park either. Since Carson Palmer went down with an injury against St. Louis in Week 10, Arizona’s offense has averaged just 12.4 PPG. Arizona is an NFL-best 11-5 ATS as a road team over the last two seasons while Carolina is 10-6-1 ATS at home over that same span (6th-best in the NFL), including 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite (2nd-best). The most recent meeting between the two was in October of 2013, with Arizona winning at home, 22-6. Cam Newton tossed three interceptions in that game while Carolina limped to just 95 rush yards on 20 carries. Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total.


Pittsburgh (-3, 47) vs. Baltimore – Saturday, 8:15 PM EST
Pittsburgh won four straight games to claim the AFC North title and notch a home playoff game here over rival Baltimore. A lot could depend on the status of star RB Le’Veon Bell, who left last game with a hyperextended knee. Bell finished with 2,215 yards from scrimmage, finishing 2nd only to Dallas’ DeMarco Murray. With Bell’s effectiveness in both the running game and passing game, it has allowed QB Roethlisberger to have a career year. Roethlisberger finished with 4,952 yards and 32 TD to just 9 INT. He closed out the season with an impressive 6 TD and 1 INT over the last four games. In the most recent meeting with Baltimore, Roethlisberger tossed for 340 yards and 6 TD in a 43-23 Pittsburgh win.

Baltimore won five of its final seven games to notch the AFC’s 6th and final seed. It wasn’t always pretty as the Ravens struggled putting away the Titans, Saints, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Browns in those five wins. QB Flacco and the Ravens have been here before, running the table in three straight road games in the 2013 playoffs en route to the Super Bowl title. Seven of the past 10 meetings between the two have been decided by seven points or less, including six of 10 by three points or less. But both meetings this year have been decided by 20 points each (20-point win by Baltimore in September and 20-point win by Pittsburgh in November). Pittsburgh finished 5-1 SU against playoff teams this year while Baltimore was 1-6 against teams with winning records. The Steelers are 25-16-1 ATS at home since 2010, the 4th-best cover rate in the NFL over that span. The Steelers are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home games against the Ravens.


Indianapolis (-3.5, 49) vs. Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Indy ran away with the AFC South by winning five of the final six games, those wins coming against teams with a combined record of 25-55 – none against playoff participants. In fact, only two of their 11 wins came against playoff teams this season, but one of those wins was against the Bengals back in Week 7. The Colts are led by the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind star QB Andrew Luck. Luck finished with 40 pass TD and 16 INT and tossed for 300+ pass yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He’ll be going against a Cincinnati pass-defense that has really played well of late. The Bengals have held the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to just 236 pass YPG with 4 pass TD allowed with 8 INT. Much is made of Cincinnati’s recent struggles in the postseason headlined by concerns about QB Dalton’s weak play. Dalton has just 1 pass TD and 6 INT in three career playoff games, failing to lead the Bengals to a postseason victory in three appearances.

Expect the Bengals to take some heat off of Dalton by giving RB’s Hill & Bernard a heavy workload. The rookie Hill led the team with 1,124 rush yards (5.1 YPC) and 9 TD while Bernard chipped in with 680 rush yards (4.0 YPC) and 5 TD. In Indy’s last two games against playoff contenders (New England & Dallas), the Colts allowed 373 rush yards and 5 rush TD, losing both of those games by 28.5 PPG. Indianapolis is an NFL-best 18-6-1 ATS at home over the past three seasons, a 75% cover rate. Cincinnati is 8-5-1 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons, winning three of their last four outright. Indy won the latest meeting in Week 7 of this season, 27-0. The game was completely dominated by Indy as they had a 506-135 total yard advantage and a 27-8 first down advantage.


Dallas (-7, 48) vs. Detroit – Sunday, 4:40 PM EST
Since Dallas’ 23-point home loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have gone 4-0 SU & ATS, winning each game by an average score of 41.3-19.8. They arguably have the top QB-RB-WR trio in the NFL with Tony Romo (led the NFL in passer rating), DeMarco Murray (led the NFL in rush yards), and Dez Bryant (led the NFL in receiving TD). Perhaps the most integral part of Dallas’ success this season was its offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL. They’ll have their hands full against this Detroit defense that ranked 1st against the run, 2nd in total yards allowed, and 3rd in points allowed. This defense got some very good news that star DT Ndamukong Suh won his appeal and will no longer be suspended for this game.

Offensively, the Lions have hit a bit of a funk lately. QB Stafford has completed less than 55% of his passes with 4 TD and 2 INT over the last three games while leading the Lions to just 18.6 PPG over that span. They’ll be facing a defense that has a “bend but don’t break” mentality all season. Nothing jumps out about this Dallas defense, but over and over they’ve made enough plays to allow Dallas’ offense to prosper. Dallas probably wanted this game to be in Detroit as the Cowboys finished a perfect 8-0 on the road this season. They were 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS at home, scoring 10.3 fewer PPG at home than on the road. Detroit ranks dead last the NFL with an 8-15 ATS mark away from home over the past three seasons. Dallas is 28th in the NFL with a 9-15 ATS mark at home over that same span. Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last seven playoff games dating back to 1998. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-6 in six appearances since.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
By Chris David

Week 17 Recap

Despite seeing a handful of high-scoring affairs, the ‘under’ produced a 9-7 mark in Week 17. The Steelers and Bengals closed out Sunday Night with an ‘under’ winners, which was a rare occurrence for the primetime games this season. Including that outcome, total players watched the ‘over’ go 33-17 (66%) in night games this season.

Looking at the overall numbers, there was a nice back and forth for bettors this season. The ‘under’ went 49-46-1 in divisional games while non-conference (NFC vs. AFC) matchups saw the ‘over’ go 34-30. Overall, the ‘under’ went 134-120-2 in the 256 games played during the regular season.

Wild Card Trends

The first round of the playoffs has watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 (87.5%) the last two years and 25-15 (62.5%) in the last 10 years. We do have lower totals for this week’s Wild Card games, which might help bettors playing the infamous “due” factor.


First Round Total History (2004-2013)

2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)
St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37
N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37
Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5
Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5
2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)
Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39
Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41
New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5
Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39
2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)
Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34
San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5
Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5
Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48
2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)
Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38
N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5
Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47
Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5 Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34
2012 (Under 4-0) 2013 (Under 3-1)
Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5 Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48
Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44 New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5
Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5 San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5
Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45 San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5



Saturday, Jan. 3

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction on all the matchups. For those keeping track, I closed the regular season slightly in the red ($170). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Arizona at Carolina

Oddsmakers opened this total at 39 and it’s down to 38 at most betting shops as of Friday. During this year’s regular season, there were six games with totals listed in the thirties and the ‘under’ went 4-1-1 in those contests. That note alone tells you to expect a low-scoring affair and when you look at the form for both clubs and the trends, it’s hard to argue against the downward move.

Even though quarterback Ryan Lindley appears to be showing some confidence, Arizona’s offense is still limited with him under center. He nearly completed 60 percent of his passes in last week’s 20-17 loss at San Francisco, but was also picked off three times. Even before Lindley took over the full-time duties, Arizona was struggling on offense. The Cardinals averaged 12.6 PPG in their last six games, which has resulted in a 2-4 mark.

Arizona will now be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed a total of 43 points in their last four games. Ironically, the Panthers gave up more points in their two home games (30) against guys named McCown, Manziel and Hoyer then they did against Brees and Ryan in the domes.

Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 9-5-2 this season and that includes a 4-2-2 record on the road. The strength of the Cardinals has been their defense but the lack of offensive chemistry has taken a toll on the defense. In its last three games, Arizona’s unit has surrendered an average of 423 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. During this same span, Carolina has allowed 267 YPG, ranked fourth.

The Panthers have seen the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 this season but make no mistake that this is a strong ‘under’ team when playing at home. The Panthers have watched the ‘under’ go 13-4 in their last 17 games played at Bank of America Stadium, which includes a 6-2 mark this season.

Carolina has averaged less points at home (18.2) than on the road (24.1) this season. Outside of a 31-point performance against Chicago in Week 5 at home, the team hasn’t shown any explosiveness in Charlotte.

Not much history between the pair but they did meet in the 2013 regular season and Arizona captured a 22-6 home win. The Cardinals haven’t been in the playoffs since 2009 while the Panthers made a trip last season and lost at home in the divisional round to the 49ers, 23-10.

Fearless Prediction: I’m leaning to the ‘under’ but I believe the best wager in this matchup is the UNDER 21 ½ in the Carolina Panthers team total. As mentioned above, the Panthers have had trouble scoring at home and Arizona’s defense is sound against the run. Barring defensive or special teams strikes, I don’t see Carolina posting more than four scores and I expect them to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The third and final meeting between the Steelers and Ravens won’t be an easy handicap for total bettors. This number opened at 47 and has dropped to 45 at most betting shops as of Friday.

A lot of pundits are focusing on the status of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell (knee), who is listed as ‘out’ for Saturday. I don’t want to take anything away from Bell but the Steelers diced up the Ravens 43-23 behind QB Ben Roethlisberger (6 TDs, 340 yards) in their recent encounter. Not having Bell makes Pittsburgh more one dimensional, which is usually a good thing if you’re leaning ‘over’ on Saturday.

Despite two straight ‘under’ tickets at Heinz Field, the Steelers have been a solid ‘over’ team at home (6-2) and they have a knack for scoring in night games, 28.3 PPG in six primetime games this season. Pittsburgh has gone 5-1 both SU and ATS in those tilts with the one loss coming at Baltimore (26-6) in Week 1.

The Ravens enter the postseason with a 4-0 ‘under’ streak but outside of Miami and Ryan Tannehill, the defense hasn’t faced a formidable offense or quarterback during the last quarter of the season.

Offensively, Baltimore has averaged 25.3 PPG on the road this season, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-3.

Including the two regular season meetings this season, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in the last six clashes but the totals have been getting higher, similar to the rest of the NFL.

The Steelers will be making their first playoff appearance since 2009 when they lost to the Broncos 29-23 on the road in the Wild Card round. Head coach Mike Tomlin has gone 5-3 in the playoffs for the Steelers behind an offense that has averaged 27.1 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go a perfect 8-0.

Since John Harbaugh took over the Ravens in 2008, he’s led the team to a 9-4 record in the playoffs. What’s even more impressive about that mark is seven of the wins came on the road. Baltimore has been known for its defense but the club has averaged 23.7 PPG in the playoffs under Harbaugh. During their Super Bowl run two years ago, Baltimore scored 24, 38, 28 and 34 points.

Tomlin and Harbaugh have already matched wits twice in the playoffs and the Steelers won both encounters (23-14, 31-24) at Heinz Field. The totals on those contests ranged between 35 ½ and 38 points and the ‘over’ connected in both.

Fearless Prediction: Even though the weather isn’t expected to be great on Saturday night, my best wager for this game is playing the OVER 45. I can’t ignore the tendencies for both teams and both Flacco and Roethlisberger are legit quarterbacks that like to take chances. I expect both teams to get a minimum of four scores (at least 20 points) and wouldn’t be surprised to see short tracks created due to the weather. Winner should get at least 27 points in a tightly contested matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Wild Card
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out how the odds break down in Wild Card Weekend!

(Rotation 101/102) – Lions (48) at Cowboys (-6.5)
Detroit is actually a modestly sharp team at this point. The Cowboys have come down from -7 to -6.5 in spite of the fact that they have had 57 percent of the bets on their side. The 'total' has held firm all week long and doesn't look like it is moving in spite of the fact that starting defensive tackle Nick Fairley could likely miss this game.

(Rotation 103/104) – Ravens (45) at Steelers (-3)
Keep a really close eye on the 'total' for this game over the course of the next 48 hours or so. The weather forecast is looking gloomier and gloomier for Saturday night. Rain is expected all day in the Steel City, and the forecast as of Thursday evening is calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. Already, we have seen this number dip from 47 down to 45. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game have been on the home team, though it should be noted that the two games in this series this year were each decided by exactly 20 points.

(Rotation 105/106) – Cardinals (37.5) at Panthers (-6.5)
Another game where Mother Nature is clearly going to play a role. Rain, wind, and cold conditions aren't anything like what the Cardinals are used to, and they aren't anything like what QB Ryan Lindley has gotten used to in his career. Remember that Lindley played his high school and college ball in San Diego, and rarely did he come across a game which he had to play in the rain. It shouldn't be surprising that this spread is up from -4.5 to -6.5, while the 'total' has come down from 39 to 37.5. Clearly, there is waning confidence in what Arizona is bringing to the table even though Carolina is a sub-.500 team.

(Rotation 107/108) – Bengals (49) at Colts (-3)
The battle of quarterbacks who "can't win the big game." QB Andrew Luck and QB Andy Dalton have 14 picks between them in six playoff starts, and the two only have one win between them (Luck last season). Still, the 'total' is relatively high in this one, which is also odd considering the fact that these two teams combined for just 27 points when they played three months ago. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game are on the Colts, yet the line has dipped a full point from -4 down to -3. The 'total' has stuck at 49 all week, but the sharpness of the Bengals should not be ignored.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -6.5, Total: 37.5

The Cardinals head to Charlotte on Saturday to open the NFL postseason against a sizzling-hot Panthers team that won four straight games to end the season.

Arizona heads into the postseason after losing two straight games and four of its past six contests. However, the team has covered in three of the past four games. Meanwhile, Carolina needed four straight SU victories to win the NFC South and got them after crushing the 3-point favorite Falcons 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 17.

The last time these two teams played one another was Oct. 6, 2013, when the Cardinals beat up on the Panthers in a 22-6 victory as 3-point home underdogs. Arizona has won-and-covered in two straight meetings, but the Panthers won-and-covered in their last game hosting the Cardinals.

Arizona has won just one game in Charlotte since 2004, and will need to win this game with QB Ryan Lindley under center, as Drew Stanton (1,711 pass yards, 7 TD, 5 INT) is now out for the year after having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. The Cardinals are, however, 6-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons, and 17-7 ATS against conference opponents in that time. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 11-3 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past two years.

In addition to the quarterback injury woes, Arizona has two questionable players in LB Larry Foote (knee) and G Jonathan Cooper (wrist). Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) is also questionable for Saturday.

The Cardinals have dealt with a number of injuries to key players this season, but they still have a chance to advance in the playoffs. QB Ryan Lindley (562 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) is, however, going to need to guide this team to the next round, and that is no sure thing whatsoever. Lindley threw for 316 yards with his first two NFL touchdown passes in a 20-17 loss to the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday, but he also threw three picks in that game to give him 11 INT in his NFL career. He will need to take much better care of the football against the Panthers in order to give his team a chance to win the game.

The Cardinals will also need a huge game from RB Kerwynn Williams (246 rush yards) in this one. Williams rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries against the 49ers, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry since joining the team from the practice squad just four weeks ago.

WR Michael Floyd (841 rec yards, 6 TD) caught eight passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to San Francisco on Sunday. He has been targeted 20 times since Lindley has been the starter for this team and will need to be on his game against the Panthers on Saturday.

This defense is allowing just 18.7 PPG (5th in NFL) this season and should give the team a chance to win this game, but the offense must find a way to put up some points.

The Panthers got hot at the right time and were able to steal the NFC South crown due to some really terrible performances on the season from the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers. This team, however, is playing extremely well as of late and is not going to be an easy out for anybody.

QB Cam Newton (3,127 pass yards, 18 TD, 12 INT) started the season slow as he dealt with fractured ribs in the first half of the year, but he has gotten extremely hot towards the end of the season. Over the past three weeks, Newton has thrown for five touchdowns and just one interception, and has rushed for at least 51 yards and a touchdown in all three games. Newton is taking care of the football and his legs are working as well as ever, so he should be able to get the Panthers offense to move the chains against this tough Cardinals defense on Saturday.

WR Kelvin Benjamin (73 rec, 1,008 yards, 9 TD) caught just one pass for nine yards in the win over Atlanta on Sunday, and he’ll need to do a lot better against the Cardinals if this team is going to advance to the next round. Jonathan Stewart (809 rush yards, 3 TD) ran the football very well down the stretch with 401 yards on 5.1 YPC during the four-game win streak, and will be relied upon to wear out the Cardinals defense with his powerful style of running.

Defensively, this team was dominant against the Falcons on Sunday and should be able to make Ryan Lindley very uncomfortable. The club forced three turnovers against the Falcons, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 45

Division rivals clash in the opening round of the AFC playoffs when the Ravens visit the Steelers on Saturday night. Pittsburgh will be missing its offensive MVP, as Le'Veon Bell (knee) was ruled out for this matchup.

Baltimore snuck into the AFC playoffs with a 20-10 victory at home over the Browns paired with a Chargers loss to the Chiefs in Week 17. The Ravens have now won three of their past four games SU, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in three straight contests.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, beat the Bengals 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in a division-deciding matchup last week, and have now won-and-covered in four straight games. Both of these teams won-and-covered when facing each other at home this season, and over the past three years, these teams have split wins SU, but the Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Pittsburgh has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Baltimore, and is now 7-3 SU (5-3-2 ATS) in its past 10 home games in this head-to-head series.

Although the Steelers are only 1-5 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, they are 32-16 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Ravens, meanwhile, are an impressive 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 1992.

Both teams have some significant injuries, as Baltimore has four players considered questionable -- DT Timmy Jernigan (foot), LB Arthur Brown (thigh), DE Chris Canty (ankle) and OT Eugene Monroe (ankle). However, star NT Haloti Ngata will play after serving a suspension. In addition to losing top RB Le'Veon Bell (knee), Pittsburgh could be missing top CB Ike Taylor (knee) and NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The good news is that S Troy Polamalu (knee) has been upgraded to probable.

The Ravens won a big game against the Browns on Sunday and got the help they needed from the Chiefs in order to make it to the postseason. QB Joe Flacco (3,986 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) came up huge for his team, throwing for 312 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory.

Flacco has thrown for four touchdowns and just one interception in two meetings with the Steelers this season, and will need to continue to take care of the football if the Ravens are going to advance. Flacco is 9-4 in his playoff career, and has won at least one game in all five postseasons he has been a part of, but half of those four defeats have come at Pittsburgh (2008 and 2010) where he combined for just 1 TD and 4 INT.

WR Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 11 TD) caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland on Sunday. He’s now caught three touchdowns over the past two weeks and will be counted on to make plays against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

RB Justin Forsett (1,266 rush yards, 8 TD) rushed for 119 yards on just 17 carries in Week 17. He’s been extremely reliable all season for the Ravens and will need to run the ball effectively against a miserable Steelers rushing defense on Saturday. The last time these teams played, Forsett rushed nine times for 38 yards and added five catches for 67 yards as well. If the Ravens can run the ball well, their sixth-ranked scoring defense should give them a great chance to advance.

The Steelers won the AFC North with a victory over the Bengals on Sunday and they’ll now take on the familiar Ravens. QB Ben Roethlisberger (4,952 pass yards, 32 TD, 9 INT) had the best season of his entire career this season, and came up big in the win on Sunday night when he threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and just 1 INT. The last time the Steelers faced the Ravens, Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll be locked in for this one and should be really difficult to stop after picking apart this defense in their last meeting.

WR Antonio Brown (129 rec, 1,698 yards, 13 TD) also had a career year this season. Brown caught seven passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday and should be able to find plenty of room to work with against the Ravens. In two games against the Ravens this year, Brown caught 18 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be Roethlisberger’s top target in this game, as he has been all season.

One major area for concern for Pittsburgh is the absence of RB Le’Veon Bell (1,361 rush yards, 8 TD). Bell hyperextended his right knee against Cincinnati and will not play against the Ravens on Saturday. The Steelers expect to give most of the carries to recently signed RB Ben Tate, who averaged a miserable 3.1 yards per carry on 119 attempts between the Browns and Vikings this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Cardinals at Panthers (-6, 37 ½) – 4:35 PM EST – ESPN

Arizona: 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Carolina: 7-8-1 SU, 8-8 ATS

The Cardinals reached the nine-win mark in mid-November, but a 9-1 start faded away due to key injuries at the quarterback position as Arizona is relegated to traveling east for its Wild Card opener at Carolina. The Panthers found a way to dig out of a 3-8-1 hole to win four consecutive games to claim their second straight NFC title. Carolina is looking to become the second below .500 team since the merger to win a playoff game, as Seattle shocked New Orleans back in 2010 as 9 ½-point underdogs.

Arizona exceeded expectations this season in the tough NFC West, in spite of losing quarterback Carson Palmer for the season with a torn ACL in a Week 10 victory over St. Louis. Since that win, the Cardinals stumbled to a 3-4 finish, while the offense never scored more than 18 points in this span. Only two of 11 wins for Bruce Arians’ squad came against playoff teams (Dallas and Detroit), while the victory over the Cowboys came with Tony Romo out.

Carolina has won 12 of its past 13 December games since 2012, as the Panthers dominated the Falcons last Sunday, 34-3 to grab the division title as three-point underdogs. After allowing at least 31 points in five straight road games, the Panthers limited Atlanta and New Orleans to a combined 13 points in a pair of blowout wins this month, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of the past three games.

The Panthers won seven of eight regular season home games in 2013, but finished just 4-4 at Bank of America Stadium this season. Two of the losses came to division champions (Seattle and Pittsburgh), while only one home victory came against a playoff team, beating the Lions back in Week 2. With Cam Newton at quarterback this season, the Panthers put together a 5-8-1 record, as Derek Anderson won the two starts he made in place of Newton, both coming against the Buccaneers.

Arizona has covered seven of 10 times this season in the underdog role, including a masterful 7-0 ATS record when catching 6 ½ points or less. Ryan Lindley will make his first career playoff start, in place of the injured Drew Stanton, as Lindley is just 1-5 in his career and 0-2 this season in the starting role. The former San Diego State standout threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 20-17 setback at San Francisco, but was also intercepted three times.

Carolina and Arizona have a very brief history in the postseason as the Cardinals shocked the Panthers as 10-point road underdogs in the 2008 NFC Divisional Playoffs, 33-13. Arizona’s defense picked off Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme five times, while Larry Fitzgerald hauled in 166 receiving yards and a touchdown as the Cards eventually took home the NFC championship. Newton has failed to beat the Cardinals in two career starts, as Arizona beat Carolina in the most recent matchup back in 2013 in Glendale, 22-6.

Ravens at Steelers (-3, 45) – 8:15 PM EST – NBC

Baltimore: 10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Pittsburgh: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS

These two rivals are meeting for the fourth time in the postseason, as the Steelers won each of their last four games to clinch their first AFC North title since 2010. Pittsburgh knocked off Cincinnati in basically a division championship in Week 17 as a three-point home favorite, 27-17. Antonio Brown capped off another stellar season with a 71-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 63-yard score from Ben Roethlisberger in the final minutes to close out their home record at 6-2.

The Ravens bounced back this season from a disappointing 8-8 campaign in 2013, one season after winning the Super Bowl back in 2012. Baltimore clinched the sixth playoff berth in John Harbaugh’s seven seasons as coach by holding off Cleveland in Week 17, coupled with San Diego’s loss at Kansas City to finish at 10-6. The Ravens weren’t great down the stretch, as Baltimore struggled to beat Jacksonville and Cleveland at home in the final two weeks, while getting blown out at Houston in Week 16.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore split a pair of meetings this season, as the home team won each time. The Ravens bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Bengals to rip the Steelers in a Thursday night matchup at M&T Bank Stadium four days later, 26-6 as 2 ½-point favorites. Days after Ray Rice was released from the Ravens, Baltimore put together a solid performance as Joe Flacco hooked up with Owen Daniels for two touchdowns.

Seven weeks later, the Steelers returned the favor at Heinz Field in front of a nationally televised audience on Sunday night football by routing the Ravens, 43-23 as 2 ½-point favorites. Roethlisberger torched the Baltimore defense for six touchdown passes, while the two teams combined for 34 fourth quarter points to eclipse the ‘over’ of 47 ½.

The Steelers will be without running back Le’Veon Bell on Saturday after the former Michigan State star suffered a knee injury in last week’s win over the Bengals. Bell’s absence looms large for the Steelers, as he racked up over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Mike Tomlin will turn to several untested backs to replace Bell, as rookies Josh Harris (Wake Forest) and Dri Archer (Kent State) will split reps on the ground.

The Ravens finished 4-4 on the road this season, while beating only two playoff teams overall with September victories over Pittsburgh and Carolina. Baltimore lost all three games on the highway against playoff clubs Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis, but the Ravens are 6-4 on the road in postseason play with Flacco at quarterback.

The Steelers performed well in later kickoffs this season, posting a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record, including a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark in primetime action. Pittsburgh wasn’t overwhelming in the favorite role by putting together a 6-5 ATS record, but dominated as a home favorite of three points or less with a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS ledger.

From a totals perspective, Pittsburgh cashed the ‘over’ in each of its first six home games, but finished ‘under’ the total in its final two contests at Heinz Field. Baltimore closed the season with four straight ‘unders,’ while going 5-3 to the ‘over’ on the highway.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Can your NFL futures bet win the Super Bowl?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

This weekend, while the rest of the world embarks on a journey of destined-to-be-unfulfilled New Year’s resolutions, 12 NFL teams will begin their march toward the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Mathematically, every one of these clubs has a chance to take down the sport’s ultimate prize, but some fan bases enter the 2014 playoffs with more reason to believe than others.

Here’s a look at why and why not each of the 12 playoff-bound clubs will or won’t win the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks (9/4)

Why: Defense and home field advantage. Including the postseason, the Seahawks are a staggering 24-2 at CenturyLink Field since 2012 while winning by an average of 16.04 points per game. Led by the NFL’s top-ranked defense (15.9 pts/gm), Seattle hasn't lost a home playoff contest since 2005 (seven-game win streak).

Why not: They've got a bullseye on their back the size of Tacoma and were on the wrong side of a 30-23 home showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, who won the NFC East and are tailor-made to combat Seattle’s toughest assets.

New England Patriots (5/2)

Why: Experience and home field advantage. The Killer B’s are 18-8 in the playoffs since their postseason alliance commenced in 2002, which includes a 5-3 mark in conference championship games. As if those numbers weren't daunting enough, that record jumps to a lights out 12-3 when playing at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.

Why not: As evidenced in recent playoff losses to Denver (2013), Baltimore (2012) and the New York Giants (2011), Tom Brady can’t do it all by himself, so the league’s 13th-ranked defense will have to elevate its game, especially if the Pats face the defending champion Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers (5/1)

Why: The Assassin. Led by soon-to-be-named MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (30.4 pts/gm) has a puncher’s chance against any foe you put in front of it. The Green Bay signal-caller has been playing on a whole different level this season and has thrown just two interceptions over his last eight games.

Why not: Rodgers will win the MVP award this year simply due to the idea that if you took him off the 12-win Packers, this team would finish the season with a top-7 draft pick. Additionally, it won’t be easy to run the playoff gauntlet with a defense that ranked 15th in the league during the regular season (346.4 yds/gm), coupled with the fact that the Packers are 0-2 over their last two trips to Seattle.

Denver Broncos (6/1)

Why: Critical adjustments. After coming to grips with the sobering reality that they were too one-dimensional, Denver upgraded its defense and placed an increased emphasis on the team’s rushing attack. The results have been favorable, with the team improving from 14th in total defense last season to third this year, while running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for an average of 108.0 yards with eight touchdowns over his last six starts.

Why not: They’re too soft in critical situations, head coach John Fox can’t be trusted to manage the game properly inside the final two minutes and quarterback Peyton Manning has shown his age over the last five weeks (5 TDs, 6 INTs).

Dallas Cowboys (10/1)

Why: The big men up front. Anchored by the NFL’s top offensive line, running back DeMarco Murray and quarterback Tony Romo enjoyed career years, with Murray winning the league’s rushing title (1,845 yards) and Romo leading all signal-callers in passer rating (113.2). The ability to pound the rock and grind down the clock has also helped to cover up some deficiencies on defense.

Why not: Can head coach Jason Garrett be trusted to make the right decision when the game is on the line? Is it possible that the Cowboys can find a way to win at CenturyLink Field twice in the same season? These are integral questions that will be answered over the next couple of weeks.

Indianapolis Colts (20/1)

Why: Third time’s the charm. Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano enter postseason play for the third time in three years since joining the Indianapolis Colts and have a favorable wildcard matchup against playoff dud Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 lifetime in the postseason. One big win and this team could go streaking.

Why not: Paper champions. That 11-5 record doesn't look so impressive once you eliminate the wins over Jacksonville (twice), Tennessee (twice), Washington, Cleveland and the New York Giants. In matchups with postseason-bound clubs, Indianapolis went 2-4 this season, with both victories coming at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (20/1)

Why: What can Brown do for you? Perhaps the most dangerous big-play receiver in the game today. Steelers wideout Antonio Brown led the NFL in receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698) this season while notching 14 plays of 25+ yards (fifth in NFL) and recording five or more receptions in every single contest. As a result, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger finished the year with his highest passer rating (103.3) since 2007.

Why not: Stud running back Le’Veon Bell is battling a hyperextended knee and the once-formidable Pittsburgh defense surrendered an average of 23.0 points per game this season (18th in NFL).

Baltimore Ravens (30/1)

Why: Familiarity. Handling postseason business on the road is nothing new for Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens, who shocked the world in January of 2013 with upset wins at Denver and at New England before upending the 49ers in New Orleans. This team won’t be intimidated by hostile environments.

Why not: Cornerback Jimmy Smith was lost for the season in late October, which led to a collapse in the secondary and a defense that subsequently ranked 23rd in the league against the pass (248.7 yds/gm). That won’t cut it against a conference that features playoff quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger.

Carolina Panthers (40/1)

Why: Peaking at the right time. Carolina enters the postseason having won four straight contests in which the defense limited the opposition to just 10.75 points per game while forcing nine turnovers. The Panthers are one of the few teams built to win in Seattle.

Why not: The offense severely lacks the firepower necessary to make a serious run in the postseason (21.2 pts/gm, 19th in NFL) and the defense got hot late against bottom feeders like New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Atlanta.

Cincinnati Bengals (40/1)

Why: The emergence of rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 116.8 rushing yards with six touchdowns in eight games as the team’s starter, has taken the load off of both quarterback Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati defense. And that’s a big deal because the last guy you want to go all-in with is Andy Dalton.

Why not: Marvin Lewis (0-5) and Andy Dalton (0-3) have never tasted victory in the postseason and Lewis cannot be trusted to out-coach any of his counterparts when in the big spot on the big stage.

Detroit Lions (40/1)

Why: The Lions boast the league’s top-ranked run defense (69.3 yds/gm), second-ranked scoring defense (17.6 pts/gm) and second-ranked overall defense (300.9 yds/gm), have a legitimate power back in Joique Bell and one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the game in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. On paper, this team looks downright nasty.

Why not: Matthew Stafford. The Detroit quarterback has never won a big game, turns the ball over far too often and is a lifetime 14-24 when playing on the road. If Stafford didn’t have the support of one of the league’s best defensive units, he’d catch as much heat as Jay Cutler.


Arizona Cardinals (75/1)

Why: Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in the NFL.

Why not: Ryan Lindley is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Round
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Wild Card Round:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

Cardinals’ weakness to dual-threat QBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Arizona gets a good look at two of the top running quarterback in the game four times a year – playing Seattle QB Russell Wilson and 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick in NFC West play. That experience with dual-threat QBs hasn’t helped the Cardinals slow those crazy-legged quarterbacks down, though.

Arizona and its blitz-happy defense has been burned by those two speedy pivots and overall has allowed 350 rushing yards to quarterback on the year (278 of those in the four games vs. Wilson or Kaepernick). Opposing passers have scrambled for an average of 5.93 yards per carry and now Arizona takes on a Grand Daddy of all dual threats: Cam Newton.

Newton’s rushing yards have been limited thanks to early-season injuries but the Panthers’ perfect weapon has been finding his footing with 197 yards on the ground the last four games, including 51 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 17’s win over Atlanta. Cam will have no qualms about breaking off some big gains when Arizona brings the heat Saturday.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

Ravens’ pass rush vs. Steelers’ offense without RB Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh has ruled out its dynamic pass-catching running back Le'Veon Bell due to a hyperextended knee suffered in the season finale versus Cincinnati. And that has Baltimore’s defense frothing at the mouth.

With Bell’s ability to break big runs and make plays happen after the catch, defenses have had to stay honest. That’s helped out a Steelers offensive line that has allowed 360 total sacks from 2006-2013. It’s a modern miracle Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have to eat supper through a straw. With Bell keeping blitzes at bay, Pittsburgh has only allowed 33 sacks – its lowest total since 2005.

The Ravens’ pass rush is back among the most feared in the NFL, sacking the QB 49 times this season. Baltimore has recorded 12 sacks in the last three games and got to Roethlisberger five times in the two games versus Pittsburgh this season. Without Bell, the Steelers offense is depending on big strikes to move the chain. Big Ben won’t have much time to let those play develop with the Ravens rushers breathing down his neck.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Saturday doubleheader

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

The Carolina Panthers went two months without a victory and are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but the NFC South champions are a solid favorite as they open the postseason against the visiting Arizona Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers overcame a seven-game winless drought by winning their final four to snag the No. 4 seed and become the first playoff team with a losing record since 2010. "The beautiful thing - record doesn't matter," coach Ron Rivera said.

Arizona was in the mix for the top overall seed in the conference until dropping its final two games to NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle to plunge to the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Lindley, who will be making his seventh career start and threw his first touchdown passes in last week's loss to the 49ers. “I don’t think anything different is expected of us in that locker room,” Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. “We don’t look at it as a team with a third-string quarterback. It’s our starting quarterback."

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and the line has moved another two and a half points to sit at -6.5. The total has moved down slightly from 38.5 to 38.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - LB Larry Foote (probable Saturday, knee), DT Dan Williams (questionable Saturday, foot), G Jonathan Cooper (questionable Saturday, wrist), QB Drew Stanton (out Saturday, knee). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable Saturday, finger), S Thomas DeCoud (questionable Saturday, hamstring), G Amini Silatolu (questionable Saturday, knee), LB A.J. Klein (questionable Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 67 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40's.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "On Monday at about noon ET, we opened Carolina -4.5, and were still uncertain at that time who would be the starting QB for Arizona. About five hours after opening, got sharp bet on the Panthers, so moved to -5.5. Then on Thursday when Bruce Arians announced Ryan Lindley would start, we moved the Panthers to current number of -6. We also moved the total from 38.5 to 38 after the 'Zona QB announcement of Lindley as starter." Michael Pierce.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Arizona and Carolina are the two worst teams to make the playoffs this season, and neither figures to be around long in the postseason. Both offenses struggle to score points and the defenses of both teams will be the best units on the field." Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (11-5, 11-5 ATS, 5-10-1 O/U): While Arizona is still holding out a slight hope that backup Drew Stanton (knee) can return, the reality is that Lindley will make his third straight start and attempt to build on last week's 316-yard, two-TD, three-interception performance - sans the picks. Michael Floyd hauled in both scoring passes while setting season highs with eight receptions for 153 yards last week but Larry Fitzgerald was limited to two catches while battling knee issues. Kerwynn Williams, signed off the practice squad after starter Andre Ellington was lost for the season in Week 13, has rushed for at least 67 yards in three of his four starts, but a bigger worry is the defense's inability to control the opposition's ground game. The Cardinals permitted one team to rush for 100 yards in their first 10 games, but have allowed five of the last six foes have surpassed that total.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS 7-8-1, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U): While Carolina had the good fortune of closing the season against four teams that finished with losing records, its defense surrendered an average of 10.8 points during the winning streak and limiting Atlanta to a season-low three points in last week's division clincher. Luke Kuechly - "The best middle linebacker in football," according to Arians - led the league in tackles for the second time in three seasons and is the backbone of a unit that was shredded for at least 37 points in five of the first 10 games. Cam Newton suffered two fractures in his back in a rollover car accident earlier in December, but has rushed for a TD in three straight games and has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in rookie Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Pathers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals' last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers' last four games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: A slight majority of bettors are backing the Cardinals, with 57 percent of wagers on Arizona +6.5.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

For as great a rivalry as exists between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the Ravens have never defeated the Steelers in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off in the postseason for the fourth time Saturday night when the AFC North rivals meet on the Steelers' home field, where the Ravens suffered their worst loss of 2014. Back on Nov. 2, Baltimore absorbed a 43-23 setback against its biggest rival as Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes, tying Pittsburgh's franchise record.

Roethlisberger will be under center on Saturday, but the Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell after the league's second-leading rusher hyperextended his right knee in Sunday's 27-17 win against Cincinnati that clinched the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. Sixth-seeded Baltimore snuck into the postseason party by winning three of its final four games, coupled with a loss by San Diego in Week 17. The winner of this game will travel next weekend to face either top-seeded New England or No. 2 seed Denver.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady to this point at Steelers -3. The total opened at 46.5, was bet up to 47 and has come back down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - DE Chris Canty (proabale Saturday, ankle), LB Arthur Brown (questionable Saturday, thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (doubtful Saturday, foot), T Eugene Monroe (doubtful Saturday, ankle). Steelers - S Troy Polamalu (probable Saturday, knee), DT S McLendon (questionable Saturday, shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (questionable Saturday, knee), TE Michael Palmer (questionable Saturday, groin), RB Le'Veon Bell (out Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an 81 percent chance of rain with a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in
the low 40s for the game.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Opened Pittsburgh -3 (-125). We figured Le'Veon Bell wouldnt play and that was confirmed early Friday. On Thursday, we moved Steelers to -3.5 (-105) because almost 80 percent of cash on spread was backing Pittsburgh. We have been getting pretty much even action on both sides on 3.5, so we will probably stay at that number. On Thursday, got sharp bet on Under 47, so moved to 46." Michael Pierce.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Baltimore and Pittsburgh will play the rubber match after each team won on their home field earlier this season. The Steelers will be without running back Le’Veon Bell, so the Ravens’ defense catches a break. The home team was just a 2.5-point favorite in each meeting this season, so it’s interesting to note that some sportsbooks have Pittsburgh listed as high as a 3.5-point favorite in this game." Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Dec. 7, but its defense has allowed an average of 15.7 points during its last three games, including a dominant effort in Week 17 when it held Cleveland to 259 total yards and 3-of-13 third-down conversions. The Ravens defense could be even more dominant Saturday with the return of All-Pro defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who was suspended for the final four games of the regular season for taking a banned stimulant. “I feel like I owe these guys,” Ngata told reporters this week. “I’m going to do whatever I can do to help the team. I’m definitely just ready to get back out there again.” The Ravens quietly set team records for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365), thanks in large part to Joe Flacco (career-high 3,986 passing yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs), Justin Forsett (career-high 1,266 rushing yards) and Steve Smith (1,065 receiving yards).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): The primary concern for the Steelers is the absence of Bell (1,361 rushing yards), whose injury paves the way for undrafted rookie Josh Harris, third-round pick Dri Archer and/or recently signed Ben Tate to see additional action against the Ravens. "I have confidence in anybody that's on our (53-man roster). If I didn't, they wouldn't be on our 53," said Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, whose team could rely even more on their second-ranked passing attack. Roethlisberger tied for the league lead with 4,952 passing yards, while Antonio Brown caught the second-most balls in a season in NFL history (129) and led the league with 1,698 receiving yards. Pittsburgh's defense will be on the lookout for turnovers, which has been Baltimore's downfall in its previous playoff matchups with Pittsburgh (11 turnovers in three games).

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home playoff games.
* Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 11-1 in the Steelers' last 12 home playoff games.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent majority of the wagers are backing the Steelers at -3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL roundup: Steelers will be without RB Bell
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell has been officially ruled out for Saturday night's wild-card game against the Baltimore Ravens because of a hyperextended right knee.

The team announced Friday that Bell won't play after he suffered the injury last week and hasn't been able to practice this week. Bell left the Steelers' 27-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals week after taking a helmet shot on his knee. He is the AFC's rushing champ with 1,361 yards on the ground and also caught 83 passes for 854 yards.

The Steelers signed fourth-year veteran Ben Tate as running back insurance Tuesday. Rookie Josh Harris likely will start against the Ravens. Dri Archer can play a role out of the backfield on passing downs and Tate also could see action.

Safety Troy Polamalu (knee) was listed as probable for the playoff game. He has missed the previous two games and four of the last seven due to numerous injuries.


---Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who did not practice Friday, is listed as doubtful for Sunday's wild-card game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Green, who was scheduled to visit an independent neuropsychologist on Friday, was seen at practice in sweats. The Bengals' biggest receiving threat remains under the league-mandated concussion protocol. Green suffered the injury in the fourth quarter of a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Green was hurt on a hit delivered by Steelers cornerback cornerback Antwon Blake and moments later by safety Mike Mitchell.

Meanwhile, the Bengals officially ruled out wide receivers James Wright (knee) and Dane Sanzenbacher (concussion) for Sunday's game. Sanzenbacher was placed on injured reserve Wednesday and replaced on the playoff roster by wide receiver Cobi Hamilton.


---The Colts will be without right guard Hugh Thornton on Sunday for their wild-card game against the Bengals because of a right shoulder injury.

Injuries kept Thornton from playing in four of the Colts' final five regular-season games. He left the regular-season finale against the Tennessee Titans with a shoulder injury. Also missing will be right tackle Gosder Cherilus, who was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.


---Houston Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt and New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski were unanimous picks on the Associated Press All-Pro team announced Friday.

Watt made it onto all 50 ballots, with 45 as a defensive end and five as a defensive tackle. Gronkowski was honored after finishing the regular season with 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The Dallas Cowboys, who won the NFC East title, placed an NFL-best four players on the team: rookie guard Zack Martin, league rushing leader DeMarco Murray, offensive tackle Tyron Smith and wide receiver Dez Bryant. The Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers were next with three each. AFC players landed 16 of the 27 spots.


---The Tennessee Titans denied the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' request to interview tight ends coach Mike Mularkey for their offensive coordinator position, NFL Network reported Friday.

Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt valued Mularkey enough to want to keep him with the Titans, who finished 2-14 in Whisenhunt's first year with the team. Mularkey, who has been an offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, Miami and Atlanta, joined Tennessee this season after not coaching in 2013. His last job as an offensive coordinator was with the Falcons from 2008 to 2011.


---The Buffalo Bills have requested permission to interview Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase for their head coach position, according to multiple reports.

Gase, 36, was expected to interview Friday with the Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers for their openings, then meet with the Chicago Bears on Saturday.

Gase is the first potential candidate to emerge for the Bills after former coach Doug Marrone opted out of his contract Wednesday.


---The Kansas City Chiefs granted permission for the Chicago Bears to interview personnel director Chris Ballard for the vacant general manager position, according to reports Friday.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported that Ballard will be interviewed in Chicago on either Friday or Saturday. Ballard was linked to the Bears opening almost immediately after Phil Emery was fired as general manager on Monday. Emery was 23-25 in three seasons with the Bears, firing Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season in 2012 and replacing him with first-time NFL head coach Marc Trestman, who also was let go Monday.

Ballard spent 12 years with the Bears before jumping to Kansas City before the 2013 season.



---The Green Bay Packers promoted Eliot Wolf to director of player personnel on Friday.

Wolf, 33, has been with the Packers for 11 years, including the last three years as director of pro personnel. Wolf is the son of Ron Wolf, the former longtime Packers general manager who is a finalist this year for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Ron Wolf, who retired as a Packers front-office executive in 2001, has joined Charley Casserly as consultants to New York Jets owner Woody Johnson in the search process after coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idzik were fired Monday.


---Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers did not practice on Friday and is not expected to be back on the field until next Thursday.

The Packers, who won the NFC North title and secured a playoff bye this weekend with the No. 2 seed, returned to practice after their 30-20 win over the Detroit Lions last Sunday.

Rodgers, named to the AP All-Pro team on Friday, said the calf injury is slowly improving. He was injured during Sunday's game against the Lions.

Green Bay wide receiver Jordy Nelson also didn't practice because he was attending to a personal matter, coach Mike McCarthy said.


---The casualties of the New Orleans Saints' disappointing 2014 season include three assistant coaches who have been dismissed, according to reports Friday. Longtime tight ends coach Terry Malone, wide receivers coach Henry Ellard and assistant secondary coach Andre Curtis will not return next season. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's status remains unclear.

The Saints finished with a 7-9 record and a defense that was ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed.

Malone was a member of Payton's first staff with the Saints, starting in 2006. Ellard had a long career in the NFL as a receiver. He came to the Saints in 2012, as did Curtis.


---The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed seven players to future contracts on Friday.

Free agent players signing for the 2015 season are: defensive back Shelton Johnson, wide receiver Chandler Jones, quarterback Seth Lobato, defensive tackle Matt Masifilo, tackle Matt Patchan, cornerback Jocquel Skinner and guard Jeremiah Warren.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Showers expected in Cardinals-Panthers game
Andrew Avery

According to weather forecasts, there is a 67 percent possibility of rain in Charlotte, NC as the Carolina Panthers host the Arizona Cardinals in the opening playoff game of the postseason.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-high-40s with wind blowing across the field at just 3 mile per hour.

Sports books opened the Panthers as either 4 or 4.5-point home favorites for the affair. That has since moved to -6.5 at most shops and the total currently stands at 38.