Saturday 1/21/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pacers (22-20) at Jazz (28-16)

Date: January 21, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

SALT LAKE CITY - Can anyone stop Rudy Gobert?

That has turned into a legitimate question for other NBA teams who face the Utah Jazz this season. So far, those same opponents aren't finding a favorable answer.

Gobert isn't just dominating opponents on the defensive end. He's also leaving a lasting mark on offense.

Gobert became the first NBA player to finish with at least 25 points and 25 rebounds in a game this season. He achieved that feat after racking up career highs of 27 points and 25 rebounds in a 112-107 overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night.

It marked Gobert's 30th double-double of the season and his 29th consecutive game with 10 or more rebounds.

Gobert has averaged 13.2 points and 15.5 rebounds in January. His latest performance helped Utah (28-16) extend its winning streak to a season-best five games.

"Rudy was terrific," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said after the game.

Gobert's imposing presence around the rim adds a complimentary dimension to what Gordon Hayward already brings to the offense. Hayward added 26 points against Dallas -- the 27th time he has scored 20-plus points this season. Utah is 20-7 when their leading scorer totals 20 or more points in a game.

Both players demand enough defensive attention that it has opened things up in a big way for the Jazz supporting cast. It certainly showed against the Mavericks, with five different Utah players reaching double figures.

"Those guys were huge down the stretch," Utah forward Joe Johnson said. "Rudy was protecting the rim. Not only that, but giving us second-chance shots and making big shots down the stretch. It was fun to be a part of this game tonight."

Indiana gets the challenge of figuring out how to stop the Jazz on Saturday. The Pacers lost for just the second time in nine games after falling 108-96 to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday.

Indiana let the game get away after the Lakers ripped off two big third-quarter runs to pull away.

Coming up short on the road is a familiar story for the Pacers this season. Indiana (22-20) is a dismal 6-15 away from home. It's a trend Pacers coach Nate McMillian knows needs to be reversed if his team wants to avoid losing ground in the Eastern Conference standings.

"The past is the past," McMillian said before Friday's loss to the Lakers. "We know what we need to do."

It will help Indiana if can get big performances from Paul George and Myles Turner in the frontcourt. Turner has four double-doubles in the last eight games -- all wins -- and is averaging 17.0 points and 8.9 rebounds in January.

During the same span, George is averaging 21.3 points. Indiana has won seven of its last eight games where he scores 19 or more points.

Both Utah and Indiana will be missing key players from their respective backcourts on Saturday.

Rodney Hood is expected to be sidelined for the Jazz after missing his second straight game while recovering from a bone bruise and hyperextended knee.

Rodney Stuckey is out during Indiana's entire 3-game western road trip while rehabbing an injured hamstring.

This will be George Hill's first game against the Pacers since being traded to Utah last summer. Hill spent five seasons in Indiana, averaging 12.3 points and 3.9 assists while appearing in 319 regular-season games with the Pacers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Clippers (29-15) at Nuggets (17-24)

Date: January 21, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

The Denver Nuggets are seven games below the .500 mark but feel a sense of optimism. The Los Angeles Clippers are 14 games above the even mark and are feeling some angst.

Perspective and expectations have everything to do with the opposite views as the two teams get ready to play Saturday night at Pepsi Center.

The Nuggets (17-24) are coming off a 14-point loss in San Antonio on Thursday that stopped their three-game winning streak. Denver was missing four players but still made it a game against the 33-9 Spurs, a loss that did little to diffuse the enthusiasm the team had after outscoring three straight teams and putting together an impressive offensive display.

Still, fighting for a playoff spot in the Western Conference means Denver has to play better and take care of the ball.

"Proud of the effort," coach Michael Malone told The Denver Post after the loss. "We just have to know that if we want to be a playoff team and eventually a championship team we have to have discipline and we cannot beat ourselves."

The Nuggets scored "only" 104 points against San Antonio after averaging 130 in three wins. Denver's offense has been explosive since Malone inserted Nikola Jokic at starting center. The 21-year-old Serbian has set career highs in scoring in three straight games, culminating with his 35-point performance against the Spurs.

He'll present a challenge for the limping Clippers (29-15), who are coming off a 104-101 home loss to Minnesota on Thursday night. Los Angeles had its seven-game winning streak snapped and lost for the first time in the calendar year.

There could be more losses on the way. Forward Blake Griffin has been out since Dec. 20 after having right knee surgery and star point guard Chris Paul is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks after having surgery to repair torn ligaments in his left thumb on Wednesday. The Clippers are 2-6 without Paul this season, and while Austin Rivers played well in the loss, he isn't the same player as Paul.

"I've got to continue to be aggressive -- nothing really changes," Rivers told The Los Angeles Times after scoring 20 points against the Timberwolves. "I do what I do. You can't be anybody else. I can't be C.P. I'm a different player than him, and he can't be me. There's certain things I can do that he can't do, and there's a lot of things C.P. does that me or Ray (Felton) can't do."

There is a chance Griffin will return Saturday. Coach Doc Rivers told The Los Angeles Times that Griffin sprinted at full speed before Thursday's game and was expected to do some contact work at the team's practice facility Friday, although the team was not practicing before leaving for Denver.

If he can't play Saturday, the possibility is there for him to come back later in the four-game trip that ends Saturday night in Golden State.

Without Griffin, the Clippers are 1-1 against Denver this season. The Dec. 26 Nuggets win came during L.A.'s six-game losing streak that preceded its winning streak. Denver was at full health then but it's not the case now.

The Nuggets were without their two leading scorers Thursday, Danilo Gallinari (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (personal reasons), their best perimeter defender in Gary Harris and forward Darrell Arthur. Harris suffered a sprained right ankle against Orlando on Monday and is progressing but is still questionable for Saturday. Malone said he didn't expect him to be out much longer.

"Initially there was more concern but he's reacted petty well, responded well to some of the treatment," Malone said.

There's a chance Gallinari and Chandler will be back Saturday. Paul won't, and it is an issue for a team that has a .293 winning percentage all-time without him.

"As a team, we're just got to keep playing and try to win as many games as possible until we can get back to full strength, hopefully sometime in March," J.J Redick told The Los Angeles Times.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Jan. 21, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Sacramento Kings ownership was all in on this season with the team playing in its new publicly-funded arena. By all in, I obviously don't mean winning an NBA title but simply making the playoffs, which the terribly-run Kings haven't done since 2006. I'm not sure what's so exciting about getting a No. 8 seed and then getting swept in the first round by Golden State, but I'm also not in marketing. The Kings knew that their second-best player, small forward Rudy Gay, was going to leave in free agency next summer because he told them that. Instead of getting something for him before Gay walks, the Kings kept him for that playoff push. Well, forget that now. Sacramento had a chance to make some hay with a seven-game homestand but completed that just 1-6 on Wednesday night in blowing a huge lead to Indiana and watching Gay go down with a torn Achilles tendon that obviously ends his season. Gay is averaging 18.7 points and 6.3 rebounds on the season. There are actually two good things that could come of this: 1) Gay decides to exercise his 2017-18 option year because he's coming off a such a serious injury; 2) the Kings land a Top-10 pick in the 2017 draft. Anything outside the Top 10, they would have to give to Chicago.

Blazers at Celtics (-6.5, 220)

Portland was in Philadelphia on Friday night. Boston had a three-game winning streak end in a 117-106 home upset loss to the Knicks on Wednesday. Isaiah Thomas led Boston with 39 points, his 13th time this season with 30 or more points. But Al Horford was 2-for-14 from the field. Avery Bradley had just returned from a sore right Achilles but sat out again and now it sounds as if he came back too soon and will be out a while. First meeting of the season between Portland and Boston. They split last year, each winning at home.

Key trends: The favorite is 8-2 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. The "over/under" is 6-0 in Boston's past nine vs. the West.

Early lean: Celtics and over.

Wizards at Pistons (TBA)

Washington won a fourth straight Thursday, 113-110 at the Knicks. John Wall had 29 points and 13 assists and scored the Wizards' final four points in the last 32 seconds. Surging Otto Porter Jr. added 23 points. A Wizards assistant appeared to interfere with a play late in the game and caused the Knicks' Courtney Lee to pass up a 3-pointer. We shall see if that assistant faces league punishment. I would think so. Detroit won its second game in a row Wednesday, 118-95 over Atlanta. Reggie Jackson led the way with 26 points, while Marcus Morris had 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Detroit scored the first seven points and never looked back. Starters Jon Leuer (right knee) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (left rotator cuff strain) did not play again. Washington won the first meeting of the season with Detroit, 122-108 in D.C. on Dec. 16.

Key trends: The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 3-1-1 in the past five in Detroit.

Early lean: Like Wizards regardless of those two injured Pistons.

Nets at Hornets (-13, 218.5)

Brooklyn was in New Orleans on Friday so you could see Brook Lopez sit this one out. Charlotte hosted Toronto on Friday, but the Hornets don't sit guys out in the second of a back-to-back usually. Brooklyn and Charlotte have split two meetings this season, both very close and in New York. The Nets won the last one on a Randy Foye 3-point buzzer-beater.

Key trends: The Nets are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 4-1-1 in the past six in Charlotte.

Early lean: Nets and over.

76ers at Hawks (TBA)

Philadelphia hosted Portland on Friday, so that presumably means Joel Embiid won't play here. Atlanta hosted Chicago on Friday. Occasionally the Hawks do rest Dwight Howard in the second of a back-to-back. Maybe they feel more comfortable doing so with Embiid out because the Sixers are terrible without him. Atlanta has blown out Philly twice this year.

Key trends: The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five.

Early lean: Wait on Embiid.

Suns at Knicks (-6, 220.5)

Phoenix dropped its second consecutive on Thursday, 118-103 in Cleveland. Tyson Chandler had 22 points and 16 rebounds -- tying a club record with a sixth straight game of at least 15 boards -- and Devin Booker 21. Brandon Knight returned from a two-game absence but was in foul trouble and did little. New York got back Kristaps Porzingis on Thursday but lost 113-110 to Washington. Carmelo Anthony scored a Knicks-record 25 points in the second quarter and finished with 34. Joakim Noah missed his second straight game with a sprained left ankle. Phoenix beat New York 113-111 in OT on Dec. 13. The Knicks led by six with 2:57 left in regulation but didn't score again as the Suns pulled even. Porzingis finished with a game-high 34 points.

Key trends: The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. The over is 6-0 in New York's past six on Saturday.

Early lean: Knicks and over.

Bucks at Heat (-2, 207)

Milwaukee was in Orlando on Friday. Miami won its second game in a row Thursday, 99-95 over Dallas. Goran Dragic had 32 points, and Tyler Johnson scored 10 of his 23 in the fourth quarter. It was only the Heat's third win this season when trailing at halftime. Milwaukee and Miami have split two meetings this season, each winning at home.

Key trends: The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in Miami.

Early lean: Heat and under.

Rockets at Grizzlies (+3.5, 217.5)

Houston hosted Golden State on Friday with Ryan Anderson expected to return from an illness, while Memphis hosted Sacramento. So huge advantage to the Grizzlies. Memphis is 2-0 vs. Houston this year, averaging 112.5 points in the two. The Grizz rallied from a 15-point third-quarter hole in the last meeting. Tony Allen and Co. have done a pretty good job on James Harden as he's averaging 21.5 points, 13.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds in the two games. He's shooting only 30.8 percent from the field.

Key trends: The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in Memphis.

Early lean: Grizzlies and over.

Spurs at Cavaliers (TBA)

ABC begins its Saturday night showcase series with this potential NBA Finals preview. San Antonio beat Denver 118-104 on Thursday but lost Pau Gasol to a broken finger suffered in warm-ups. So he's going to miss some time. Tony Parker sat with a sore ankle but is traveling with the team to Cleveland. Kawhi Leonard had 34 points, his fifth in a row with at least 30. Cleveland bounced back from its huge loss at Golden State on Monday to beat Phoenix 118-103 on Thursday. Kyrie Irving had 26 points and LeBron James 21 points and 15 assists. They will both start for the East in the All-Star Game, as will Leonard for the West. Kevin Love sat out with back spasms. Tristan Thompson dislocated his finger in the game but did return. San Antonio and Cleveland split last year, each winning at home.

Key trends: The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 9-1 in the Spurs' past 10 after a win.

Early lean: Wait on Parker and Love.

Clippers at Nuggets (TBA)

Los Angeles began life without Chris Paul on Thursday and not surprisingly suffered its first loss of 2017 in a 104-101 home defeat to Minnesota. DeAndre Jordan had a career-high 29 points and 16 rebounds but missed some key free throws late. The Clippers were only 4-for-22 from long range. Denver's three-game winning streak ended in a 118-104 loss in San Antonio on Thursday. Nikola Jokic had a career-high 35 points. Danilo Gallinari (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (personal) were out. L.A. and Denver have split two meetings in Los Angeles. The losing team had 102 points in each.

Key trends: The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in the previous four in Denver.

Early lean: Wait on the two Nuggets.

Pacers at Jazz (-7, 203.5)

Indiana was at the Lakers on Friday. Utah was in Dallas with Rodney Hood out and not expected here, either. Joe Ingles has been starting for him. First meeting between Indiana and Utah, which won both last season. The one in Salt Lake City was a 122-119 OT decision. Derrick Favors had 35 points as the Jazz were without Rudy Gobert. Indiana's George Hill missed a potential tying 3-pointer at the buzzer. Of course he's with Utah now. Paul George had a career-high 48 for the Pacers.

Key trends: The Jazz 0-4-1 ATS in their past five in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 5-2 in Utah's past seven vs. the East.

Early lean: Jazz and under.

Kings at Bulls (-5.5, 204)

Sacramento was in Memphis on Friday and Chicago in Atlanta. Dwyane Wade hasn't been playing both ends of a back-to-back but early reports are that he will this weekend. Taj Gibson was a game-time call for Friday. First meeting between the Kings and Bulls. The common bond between these teams is that Rajon Rondo wore out his welcome with the Kings last year and has already done so in Chicago. The Bulls swept the Kings in 2015-16.

Key trends: The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Kings and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Saturday’s games

Portland lost its last four games, losing brutal 93-92 game in Philly last night; Blazers are 5-12 as a road underdog. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Celtics won seven of last nine games, are 10-7 as a home favorite. Over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Trailblazers won five of last seven games with Boston, winning two of last three visits here. Three of last four series games stayed under.

Wizards won four games in row and 10 of last 13; they’re 6-5 as road underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Pistons won last two games after a 4-11 skid; they’re 1-6 in last seven games as a home favorite- over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Washington won five of its last six games with Detroit, losing two of last three visits to Motor City. in series where home side won seven of last eight series games. Four of last six series games stayed under total.

Brooklyn snapped 11-game skid last night in New Orleans; they’re 5-8-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 2-2-1 if they played night before. Charlotte won eight of last nine home games, covering last three. Last four Hornet games stayed under the total. Hornets won five of last six games with Brooklyn; over is 4-1 in last five series games played here. Nets split last four visits here, but covered all four games.

Embiid (rest) will not play for 76ers tonite. Sixers won eight of last ten games, are 8-3 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Hawks won 10 of last 12 games, are 3-1 in last four games as a home favorite. Three of last four Atlanta games went over. Philly lost nine of last ten games with Atlanta (2-7 vs spread in last nine); they lost last five visits here (2-3 vs spread). Four of last five series games went over total.

Milwaukee lost its last four games (0-4 vs spread), is 5-10 as a road underdog, 1-5 if they played night before. Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Heat won last two games, are 4-4 as a home favorite. Four of last five Miami games went over the total. Bucks won seven of last nine games with Miami, winning three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games went over total.

Phoenix lost four of last five games, is 3-7 in its last ten games as a road underdog. Suns’ last five games went over total. Knicks lost six of last eight games, are 10-3 as home favorites; last three New York games went over total. Suns won four of last six games with New York; they lost three of last four games in MSG, but are 3-1 vs spread in those games. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Rockets lost four of last six games; they’re 10-6 as road favorites, 8-2 if they played night before. Rockets’ last three games stayed under. Grizzlies won/covered last four home games; they’re 6-4 as home underdogs. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Memphis won five of last seven games with Houston; over is 7-3 in last 10 series games. Rockets lost three of last five visits here.

San Antonio won six of its last eight games, is 2-0 as a road underdog. Over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Cleveland lost three of last five overall, but they’re 19-3 SU at home, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite. Under is 7-5 in their last 12 home games. Spurs won eight of last ten games with Cleveland (2-2 since Lebron came back to Cavs); San Antonio won four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Sacramento lost seven of last eight games, is 7-10 as a road underdog. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games.
Chicago lost five of last seven games, is 3-10 in last 13 games as a home favorite. Three of Bulls’ last four games went over total. Bulls won last three games with Sacramento by 18-5-7 points; Kings lost last five visits to Windy City, but covered four of the five losses. Last six series games stayed under.

Indiana won seven of last nine games, is 5-8 as a road underdog, 1-6 if they played night before. Last three Pacer games stayed under total. Utah won its last five games but is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine; they’re 6-10 as a home favorite. Last three Jazz games went over total. Jazz won last two games with Indiana after losing six of previous seven series games. Pacers split last four visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under.

Clippers are without Paul/Griffin; LA won seven of last eight games, is 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games- under is 6-2-1 in their last nine overall. Denver won three of last four games, is 1-5 vs spread in its last six home games. Nuggets’ last nine games all went over the total. Clippers won six of last eight games with Denver, winning by 15-17 points in last two visits here. Eight of last nine series games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball's best teams are also its best bets... besides Kansas
By JASON LOGAN

College basketball bettors have got what they’ve expected from the Top 10 teams in the nation this season. That is, from every one of those elite programs besides Kansas.

The Jayhawks are the only team ranked inside the AP Top 10 that isn’t covering the spread at least 58 percent of the time. Kansas is 17-1 SU and sits No. 2 in the AP poll – and is actually No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches poll. However, Bill Self’s kids have managed to cover the spread in only six of their 16 lined games, lugging a costly 6-10 ATS record.

Kansas has little trouble scoring, averaging 85.8 points per game which sits 14th most in the country. The Jayhawks are shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from beyond the 3-point arc – both of which rank 8th. On the defensive end, however, KU is 141st in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.4 points to opponents. That’s an average margin of victory of +15.3 versus an average closing spread of -13.72.

The Jayhawks have been favorites of -15.5 or more in seven of their games this season. There has been a drop off in second-half production, with the margin dipping from +8.8 in the first half to +6.7 points in the final 20 minutes. Looking at KU's recent bet graphs (exclusive to Covers.com) for games in which it failed to cover the spread, and rarely did Kansas actually play well enough to cover the lofty lines at any point during those 40 minutes.

Kansas is undefeated in its first six Big 12 conference games, but is only 2-4 ATS in those contests after going 67-57-4 ATS inside the Big 12 in the last eight years. And, KU is 2-5 ATS inside Allen Fieldhouse - one of the best home-court advantages in sports - after posting a 54-42-2 ATS record at home since 2010.

Overall, the AP poll’s Top 10 teams in the country have a combined mark of 102-59-1 ATS as of Wednesday (169-14 SU), covering the spread 63 percent of the time. Taking KU out of that equation improves that collective record to 96-49-1 ATS – a 66 percent winner if you blindly bet on those Top 10 teams so far this season.

The best bet among the Top 10 are the No. 4 Gonzaga Bulldogs, who boast a 12-2 ATS record and are unbeaten at 17-0 SU. Behind the Zags in terms of ATS success among those Top-10 programs are No. 7 Creighton (13-4 ATS), No. 10 Florida State (11-5 ATS) and defending champ No. 1 Villanova (12-6 ATS).

Here’s a full list of the Top 10 AP poll programs and their SU/ATS records:

Villanova 18-1 SU, 12-6 ATS
Kansas 17-1 SU, 6-10 ATS
UCLA 18-1 SU, 11-8 ATS
Gonzaga 17-0, 12-2 ATS
Kentucky 16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS
Baylor 17-1 SU, 8-5 ATS
Creighton 18-1 SU, 13-4 ATS
West Virginia 15-2 SU, 7-5 ATS
North Carolina 17-3 SU, 11-7-1 ATS
Florida State 16-2 SU, 11-5 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 21 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

This has not been a good week regarding the health of key players on potential Final Four teams. The latest injury has struck Indiana and sophomore forward OG Anunoby, who has been compared to former Hoosier Victor Oladipo for his athleticism. Anunoby went down at the end of the first half of Wednesday's win against Penn State with a knee injury, and it doesn't look good. He knee buckled as he planted his leg trying for a rebound. Anunoby finished the half curled up in obvious pain under IU's basket. After the game, Coach Tom Crean was choking up during interviews speaking about it. Anunoby, who has one of the best dunks in the nation this year, is averaging 11.4 points and 5.4 rebounds and had been likely to declare for the draft. No official word as of this writing on the severity of the injury, and the school is only saying Anunoby is out indefinitely, but Crean's reaction pretty much said it all.

No. 9 North Carolina at Boston College (+17)

ACC matchup at noon ET. The Tar Heels have won five straight since that puzzling loss at Georgia Tech to begin conference play. On Monday, UNC pounded Syracuse 85-68. It was the 800th win of Roy Williams' Hall of Fame coaching career. He is the ninth Division I coach to reach the mark. Williams won his 800th game in fewer seasons (29) than any coach in history. Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski won their 800th game in their 33rd seasons. Isaiah Hicks scored 20 points for UNC, which shot 52 percent and never trailed after the game's opening possession. The Heels played without center Tony Bradley due to a concussion but he's expected back here. The freshman averages 8.1 points and 5.7 rebounds.

Boston College was winless in ACC play last year but started 2-0 at home in the conference this season before falling 71-54 to No. 16 Virginia on Wednesday. With the score tied 8-8, Virginia went on a 15-0 run to take a 23-8 lead that it would never relinquish. Eagles sophomore Jerome Robinson (19.6) and freshman Ky Bowman (17.0) entered as the top scoring backcourt in the ACC during league play, but Robinson was held to nine points and Bowman to seven. The Eagles coughed it up 16 times and it led to 26 points for the Wahoos. BC also shot just 38.5 percent to 51.9 for UVA. Boston College was 0-2 vs. North Carolina last year but only lost by three at home when the Heels were also No. 9.

Key trends: UNC is 1-4 against the spread in its past five road games. Boston College is 5-1 ATS in its past six after a loss.

I'm leaning: Boston College.

No. 12 Louisville at No. 10 Florida State ( -1 )

Another ACC game at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN. OK, I'm done with FSU games after this one. It's the Seminoles' finale of a six-game stretch against ranked teams. They are only the third team in ACC history to have that type of schedule in the regular season. Florida State is 4-1 in the previous five and I have been right on their decision in the past three, although I had them covering 5 points at home against No. 15 Notre Dame on Wednesday and the Noles won 83-80. They closed the game on an 11-1 run to hand the Irish their first conference loss of the season. Not too often you beat a team that shoots 15-for-21 from 3-point range as Notre Dame did. The 71.4 percent was just shy of the school record. Since 2010, there had been 18 different teams to make 15 or more 3-pointers while shooting 70% or higher. All 18 of those won.

Louisville avoided a trap game Thursday in routing visiting Clemson 92-60. Deng Adel scored 18 points to match a career high, and Donovan Mitchell scored 18 in the first half as the Cards began life without injured point guard Quentin Snider (out 2-3 weeks). The 56.3 percent shooting from the field (36-for-64) for Louisville was a season high The 32-point margin of victory matched U of L's biggest in an ACC game. Interestingly, the Cards are 16-3 for the fifth straight year. Louisville beat visiting FSU 84-65 in the lone meeting last season.

Key trends: The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 on the road. The Noles are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 in the ACC.

I'm leaning: Florida State.

No. 14 Arizona at No. 3 UCLA (-5)

Pac-12 game at 4 p.m. ET on CBS and the best matchup of the day, in my opinion. Arizona is already pretty good but could be even better whenever (or if) former five-star recruit guard Allonzo Trier becomes eligible. He has yet to play this season after testing positive for PEDs. He was suspended by the NCAA, but appealed and won. In typical NCAA fashion, it is still prohibiting him from playing until the drug is completely out of his system. I'm not a doctor and didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night so I have no idea when it might clear from his system. Trier has been practicing and traveling with the team. He averaged 14.8 points and 3.3 rebounds last season for the Cats.

Both schools avoided being upset in look-ahead games on Thursday. Arizona won its 11th in a row with a 73-66 victory at formerly ranked USC. Finnish freshman center Lauri Markkanen, who will be a lottery pick this summer if he declares for the NBA Draft, had a key late 3-pointer among his 23 points. The Trojans had rallied from 23-point deficit to get within three. During their winning streak, the Wildcats have beaten their opponents by an average of 16.5 points. UCLA won a sixth straight with a 102-80 rout of Arizona State. Isaac Hamilton hit a career-high nine 3-pointers on the way to 33 points. The Bruins were 16-for-27 from long range and hit 59.3 percent from the field overall. They had 30 assists, their most in 22 years. UCLA and Arizona split two close games last season.

Key trends: The Cats are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. UCLA is 9-3 ATS in its past 12 at home. Arizona is 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

I'm leaning: UCLA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s games

Georgia is 4-2 in SEC, losing to So Carolina by 6, in OT at Florida by 4- they won two of three SEC road tilts, winning at Auburn/Ole Miss. Dawgs are best SEC at getting to foul line and they make 73.9% once they get there. Texas A&M is 1-5 in SEC with home losses to Tennessee/Arkansas- they blew 12-point second half lead to Hogs in last game. Georgia won four of its last five games with A&M, winning by 7-9 points in last two visits here- Aggies won 79-45 in Athens LY. SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 2-9 vs spread this season.

Louisville won its last four games, hammering Clemson by 32 in first game without injured PG Snider on Thursday. Cardinals are 1-1 in true road games, losing by 7 at Notre Dame, winning by 15 at Ga Tech. Florida State won 13 of last 14 games; they’re 5-1 in ACC, 4-0 at home, with three wins by 15+ points. ACC foes are shooting 46.1% outside arc vs FSU, just 42.9% inside arc. Louisville won by 22-19 points in its to ACC games with Florida State; teams were rivals in old Metro Conference years ago. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread.

Oklahoma State is 0-6 in Big X after a 10-2 pre-conference mark; Cowboys’ three Big 12 road losses are by 3-4-7 points. OSU is in bottom three of league in all nine Big X defensive metrics. Texas Tech won its last three games with Oklahoma State, by 1-2-10 points; State lost its last three visits to Lubbock, by 4-1-2 points. Tech is 3-0 at home (0-3 on road) in Big X, with wins by 1-1-6 points- they’re #8 experience team in country, starting three juniors, two seniors. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-5 vs spread this season.

Creighton is without PG Watson test of the way, a big blow. Bluejays are 5-1 in Big East, with only loss to Villanova- they won home games over Seton Hall by 14, Butler by 11. Creighton is 4-2 vs Marquette in Big East play, winning two of three here— Marquette pulled 66-61 (+7.5) upset here LY. Golden Eagles are 0-3 on Big East road, losing by 3-12-8 points- they won their other road game, by 10 at Georgia. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 11-0-1 vs spread this season. Impossible to measure Creighton without Watson; they have no real backup PG.

South Carolina is 12-0 with Thornwell in lineup; they were 3-3 while he was gone. Gamecocks are 5-0 in SEC, with road wins at Georgia/Tennessee. Kentucky won its last six games, is 6-0 in SEC, with home wins by 42-26-20 points- they did lose at home to UCLA on Dec 3. Wildcats scored 93.8 pts/game in their last six games. Kentucky won eight of last nine games with South Carolina, winning last three by 15-34-27 points. Gamecocks lost their last 11 visits here, last five all by 15+ points. Double digit favorites are 5-9 vs spread in SEC games this year.

UCLA won its last six games; they’re 3-0 at home in Pac-12, winning by 10-14-22 points while scoring 90.7 pts/game. Arizona won its last 11 games, is also 6-0 in Pac-12, winning road tilts by 5-39-7 points while allowing 60 pts/game. Arizona won four of last six games with UCLA but lost four of last five games in Pauley Pavilion, last three of which were all decided by 5 or less points. Arizona is #324 experience team, UCLA #278; lot of talent on both sides, not much depth. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-3 against the spread. Allonzo Trier is finally eligible to play; greatly helps Arizona’s depth, not sure if he is rusty, but he’s been practicing.

Wisconsin won 11 of last 12 games, is 2-2 in true road games, losing at Creighton/Purdue; Badgers are 4-1 in Big 14, allowing 63.2 pts/game- they’re forcing turnovers 23.1% of time in Big 14 games. Minnesota lost its last two games, scoring 48.5 pts/game, after a 15-2 start; Gophers are shooting 41% on arc, 44.8% inside arc in league play. 4 of 6 Minnesota Big 14 games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Wisconsin won its last five games with Minnesota, winning by 13-13 points in last two visits here. Big 14 road favorites are 4-6.

West Virginia is 4-2 in Big X, with both losses in OT; they’re 2-1 on Big X road, winning by 17 at OSU, 2 at Texas. Mountaineers force turnovers 24.9% of time in Big X games. K-State is 2-3 in its last five games, losing by 2-1-9 points- Big X teams are making 45.9% on arc against them. Wildcats get to foul line a lot, have best eFG% in conference. West Virginia won its last five games with Kansas State, winning by 6-4 points in its last two visits to the Little Apple- they won here in double OT LY. Big X road favorites are 4-4 vs spread this season.

Fresno State won five of last six games with Nevada; they beat Wolf Pack 77-76 in first meeting Dec 31, rallying back from down 10 in 2nd half (Fresno was 13-27 on line). Bulldogs won three of last four visits to Reno, but lost 77-72 in OT here LY. Fresno is 0-3 on Mountain West road, losing by 5-7-9 points; they are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time in MW play. Nevada played only six guys last game; they struggled guarding bulky Edo in first meeting— Oliver got in foul trouble, played only 22:00. MW home favorites of 7+ points are 5-2 vs spread this season.

Mississippi State was 51-77 (20-52 in SEC) the last four years (since Stansbury was fired); they are 12-5 this year, 3-2 in SEC, with 2nd-youngest team in country. Bulldogs are 3-2 in SEC, 2-0 on road, winning at LSU/Arkansas. Tennessee won five of its last six games with Mississippi State; road team won last four series games. Bulldogs won two of last three visits to Knoxville. Vols lost four of last five games; they’re 0-2 at home in SEC, losing to Arkansas/South Carolina. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-12 against the spread this season.

Indiana has injury issues with Anunoby/Morgan hurt; Hoosiers won three of last four games- they’re 1-2 in Big 14 home games, losing by 4-7 points to Nebraska/Wisconsin. Michigan State is 4-2 in big 14, losing last two road games, by 9 at Penn State, 5 at Ohio State. Spartans won their last five games with Indiana, winning by 17-2 points in last two visits here. State is turning ball over 20.1% of time in league; they’re #313 experience team- Indiana is #309. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 against the spread.

Baylor is 17-1 with only loss at West Va; they’re 5-1 in Big X, with three wins by 9+ points- they rebound 44% of their own misses, but also turn ball over 24% of time in Big X games. Bears are 2-1 on road, winning at Oklahoma/K-State, losing at WVU. TCU is 3-3 in Big X, 2-1 at home- they lost by 6 to Kansas, beat Oklahoma/Iowa State. Baylor is 9-0 vs TCU in Big X games, winning by 26-33-7-15 points here. 5 of TCU’s 6 Big X games were decided by 7 or less points. Road teams are 5-4 vs spread in Big X games with spread of 3 or less points this season.

Duke is 1-2 since Coach K left, beating BC by 11 in only home game; they lost last two games by 16-9 points, giving up 83 pts/game- they miss injured C Jefferson. Blue Devils were just 12-36 on arc last two games; they need more from Allen. Miami lost three of last four games, losing 96-79 at Wake Forest Wednesday. Hurricanes is shooting just 58.7% on foul line in ACC tilts. Miami won four of last six games with Duke, winning last two by 16-11 points- they won two of last three visits to Durham. Single digit home favorites are 13-8 in ACC games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB*|*TENNESSEE TECH*at*BELMONT
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
3-1*this year.**(*75.0%*|*1.9 units*)

CBB*|*W MICHIGAN*at*BUFFALO
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (W MICHIGAN) after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record
170-192*since 1997.**(*47.0%*|*83.7 units*)
7-13*this year.**(*35.0%*|*-5.0 units*)

CBB*|*ILLINOIS*at*MICHIGAN
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MICHIGAN) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent
41-15*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Notebook - Week 22
By Chris David

After this weekend, there will only be 16 weeks left in the Premier League season and oddsmakers at 5Dimes.eu still have Chelsea listed as the odds-on favorite at minus-165 (Bet $100 to win $60). Right behind the Blues are Liverpool (6/1) and Tottenham (7/1), who are both within striking distance. Arsenal (11/1), Manchester City (14/1) and Manchester United (21/1) haven’t been ruled out by the oddsmakers but they all face uphill battles.

Week 22 Slate
All times listed in Eastern Time Zone

Saturday, Jan. 22
Swansea City at Liverpool (NBCSN, 7:30 a.m.)
Watford at Bournemouth (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Everton at Crystal Palace (CNBC, 10:00 a.m.)
West Ham United at Middlesbrough (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Manchester United at Stoke City (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Sunderland at West Bromwich Albion (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Tottenham at Manchester City (NBC, 12:30 p.m.)

Sunday, Jan. 22
Leicester City at Southampton (NBCSN, 7:00 a.m.)
Burnley at Arsenal (NBCSN, 9:15 a.m.)
Hully City at Chelsea (NBCSN, 11:30 a.m.)

Trends to Watch

Liverpool has won five of the last six encounters against Swansea City, which includes a 2-1 road win earlier this season on Oct. 1. The Swans have been the best ‘over’ team (16-5) in the league this season due to a defense that has allowed 49 goals.

Everton and Crystal Palace have played to draws in their last three encounters, two of them ending in 1-1 decisions.

Bournemouth earned a 2-2 draw at Watford in the first meeting this season and that was the third consecutive tie between the pair. The Hornets have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 on the road and bettors have only seen a combined 14 goals scored in those games.

In the last four EPL matches between Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion, bettors have seen a total of three combined goals scored. The ‘under’ cashed in all four games. West Brom has been a solid ‘over’ bet (7-3) at The Hawthorns and it enters this game with 13 goals in its last five played at home.

The home team has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 matches between Manchester United and Stoke City. One of the draws occurred at Old Trafford earlier this season, a 1-1 outcome. United is unbeaten in its last 16 games (12-4-0) in all competitions and the defense has posted nine clean sheets during this span.

Game of the Week – Tottenham at Manchester City (NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The Premier League is often considered the top completion in all of soccer and Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is finding that out rather quickly. After opening the season with six consecutive wins and sitting on top of the table, pundits were praising the Spaniard and the transformation of the Citizens.

Then on Oct. 2, Manchester City paid a visit to White Hart Lane and suffered a 2-0 loss to Tottenham. Sine that setback, the Citizens have dropped 18 points and only notched seven victories in its last 14 games. Last Sunday, the Citizens were humbled 4-0 at Everton and have fallen 10 points behind leader Chelsea.

While City has struggled, Tottenham has gone 8-4-2 since beating City and it enters this matchup on a six-game winning streak. The success of the Spurs is their defense and the unit has only allowed 14 goals this season, which is the best mark in the league.

City has nearly surrendered double that amount (26) but it has been better at home (10). In 21 league games this season, Manchester has only managed to keep four clean sheets.

Bettors believing the form of the Spurs is too strong can get down on generous payouts (+270) this Saturday while backing an inconsistent Man City team (+110) isn’t as rewarding.

For what it’s worth, Manchester City has only dropped back-to-back games once in league play this season and it’s never been held to consecutive clean sheets.

The draw (+235) might seem tempting but the pair haven’t played to a tie in 12 meetings, the last instance occurring in the 2010 campaign. During this span, Manchester has come out on top eight times but the Spurs have won the last three in this series while outscoring the Citizens 8-2.

City has been a solid ‘over’ wager (15-6) this season and not surprisingly, the defense of Tottenham has helped produced an 11-10 record to the ‘under.’

Eight of the last 10 encounters between these teams have seen at least three combined goals posted on the scoreboard. Saturday’s total is listed at 2 ½ and shaded to the ‘over’ (-120).

Tottenham midfielder Erik Lamela (hip) is expected to miss time again while Man City could have forward Gabriel Jesus in action with Fernando as well, but Fernandinho is still suspended.

Sunday Chalk

The Premier League has three games on tap for Sunday and the home team has been installed as a heavy favorite in all of the games. When looking at the visitors below, it’s hard to make a case for them knowing the trio is a combined 1-5-23 on the road this season.

Southampton vs. Leicester City: The Foxes won’t be repeating as EPL champions and they could be in trouble of staying up. Southampton is the weakest of the three favorites on Sunday but they have notched four of its six wins this season at St. Mary’s Stadium and Leicester remains winless (0-3-7) on the road. The total on this game is listed at 2 and the ‘under’ (+125) might be worth a look. They played to a scoreless draw in October plus the Saints haven’t been able to score at home (10 goals) and Leicester has only managed eight away goals.

Arsenal vs. Burnley: It’s really amazing that Burnley sits in the 10th place despite only earning one point (0-1-8) on the road this season but a great home mark (8-1-3) has helped the cause. The Clarets have been outscored 20-3 on the road and they’ll be facing an Arsenal team that has gone 8-1-3 at Emirates Stadium this season. The Gunners are unbeaten (4-1-0) in their last five league matches versus Burnley, which includes a 1-0 road win on Oct. 2.

Chelsea vs. Hull City: The Blues are laying a heavy price (-600) against the Tigers (+1650) and while anything is possible, it’s tough to argue for the ‘dog in this spot against the league leaders. The Blues dropped Hull 2-0 on the road back in October and have now win five straight league games in this series. The total is hovering around 3 goals and shaded high (-120) but Chelsea has been almost perfect as an ‘over’ lean (9-1) at Stamford Bridge this season. The Blues have tallied 28 goals at home and scored three-plus in six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

The Sunshine Millions is no longer a huge event, with purses cut and no longer on national television, but we still have five stakes on today’s card and plenty of good betting opportunities.

The highlight of the card is the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic which is the finale on the 12-race card at Gulfstream Park.

Things could end up chalky as the 7-5 morning line favorite Awesome Slew looks as if he is going to be very tough to beat. The colt is a Grade 3 winner, taking the Smarty Jones at Parx back in September and faced tougher in his last two starts—a fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and a third last out in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3).

We have a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race on tap this afternoon as well, a competitive field going in the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds.

A field of 12 entered with 11 likely to start with Saint’s Fan a possible scratch. There are 10-4-2-1 points up for grabs toward entry into the Run for the Roses.

Weather will be a factor as the New Orleans area has been hit by plenty of rain and there is more in the forecast for Saturday.

My selections for the Lecomte are below.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 OClm $25,000N1X (12:00 ET)
#8 Glass House 2-1
#2 Lady Coventry 4-1
#6 April Rose 7-2
#4 Love Flute 8-1

Analysis: Glass House makes her first start since her U.S. debut last April at Keeneland where she was off last and came with a good late rally while wide to finish third, beaten two lengths against Alw-1 foes. The filly broke her maiden at the Curragh in her second career start in a field of 30. The Ward barn is 25% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Lady Coventry came up the inside with a good late rally to finish third last out in the Claiming Crown Distaff Dash last out. The runner up My Sister Caro returned to beat $12,500 starter optional claimers in her next outing on Jan. 1. Her lone turf win was against $30,000 non-winners of two here last July. A repeat of her last effort puts her in the mix here.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 12 The Sunshine Millions Classic (5:35 ET)
#8 Awesome Slew 7-5
#6 Piloting 4-1
#3 Hy Riverside 5-1
#4 We're All Set 6-1

Analysis: Awesome Slew tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish in the Harlan's Holiday (G3) last out here, beaten a neck by Keen Ice for the runner up spot. The colt drops in with state breds here owns a solid pace profile throughout. Castellano picks up the call for Plesa and this guy is going to be tough to beat in this spot as the short priced favorite.

Piloting set the early fractions and could not match strides in the stretch with the winner in a runner up finish last out in the state bred Millions Classic Preview at GP West. The gelding earned a career top speed fig in the effort. He should be forwardly placed but does not look quick enough early to be on the lead against this group.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 3,4,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Fair Grounds:

FG Race 11 The Lecomte G3 (5:00 CT)
#9 Running Mate 10-1
#8 Guest Suite 5-1
#5 Untrapped 9-2
#3 Totality 12-1

Running Mate was sent off as the 2-5 chalk last out in the Sugar Bowl here going six furlongs after two big wins to start off his career. He tracked the early pace came in and interfered with a foe nearing the 3/16’s and finished with interest for the runner up spot, unbale to get to the winner in the stretch and then getting DQ’d to third. He won his first two career starts by a combined 13 ¾ lengths and has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out. He is by Creative Cause out of a Street Cry mare, her first foal to race. Three bullet works on the morning tab for Larry Jones. From 2-5 last out to 10-1 today, I’ll take it. He has a decent enough off track pedigree.

Guest Suite was a decent third two back in his stakes debut in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs going a one turn mile. The winner of that race was the highly regarded McCraken, who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in his next outing on Nov. 26. Next out our second choice dropped in to facer Alw-1 optional claimers going a mile at Churchill Downs and trounced the field by 6 ¼ lengths. He popped a bullet work over the main track here on Jan. 18. By Quality Road out of a Ghostzapper mare, her first foal to race, the two turns should not pose a problem.

Untrapped faces winners and two turns for the first time here as one of three sent out by the Asmussen barn. The colt ran second to Uncontested in his debut, that runner winning the Smarty Jones on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Last out he graduated in his second career start, drawing away to win by 5 ¼ lengths. The two turns is the only question mark. Asmussen is 15% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Wagering:
WIN: #9 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 3,5,8,9 / 3,4,5,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #4 Love Flute 8-1
R2: #6 Scat Arb 8-1
R3: #6 Rontos Lily 8-1
R5: #7 Dopo Lavoro 12-1
R7: #4 He’s the One 8-1
R8: #3 Blackjack Baby 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$8750 - N/W $5,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $7,500 IN LAST START INELIGIBLE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 NEW JERSEY SIRED OR OWNED PREFERRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 9 NOWUCIT NOWUDONT 5/2
# 2 NEVER EVER CLEVER 9/2
# 6 SURFACE TENSION 20/1

NOWUCIT NOWUDONT looks really good to best this group of animals. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been great (91 avg) within the recent past. With a competitive 91 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. This trainer, and the driver Bongiorno, go together like hot dogs and buns. Their results together are terrific. NEVER EVER CLEVER - Seems to have a competitive class advantage based on the entrants she has raced against. 47 percent of the time this trainer and horse duo end up hitting the board. Big players in this contest. SURFACE TENSION - When starting from the 6 position, a better than expected win percentage has resulted. Positive feel - going to post well enough to contend in this gathering.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 7:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$14000 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $100,000 IN 2016/17 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. 3,4& 5 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 CHEYENNE SEEBER 7/2
# 3 CHUCARO ACERO BC 5/2
# 5 GHOST PINE 5/1

If you want a formidable play today, feast your eyes on CHEYENNE SEEBER. His 92 avg has this gelding among the most favorable speed ratings in this race. He has good class ratings, averaging 93. Should be considered for a bet in this event. CHUCARO ACERO BC - Doing work well, earned a formidable TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent outing (91). Outstanding win pct combined with recent very good performances. We think he can handle this group. GHOST PINE - When Coyne sends this standardbred out you can bet they'll hit the board, stats show them there 54 percent of the time. Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 93)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA FOALS OF 2012, 2013 & 2014 WHO ARE ELIGIBLE. $350 TO ENTER. ENTRY FEE MUST BE IN THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER'S OFFICE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. THREE YEAR OLD: 124. OLDER:126.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 BANKIN ON BUX 10/1

# 8 HF LLUVIA 9/2

# 5 FOLLOW MY SCENT 7/2

I think about BANKIN ON BUX in this event and is a very good value bet given the line. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this racer a contender. Hard to pass on this gelding with Martinez in the irons. Garnered a decent Equibase Speed Fig last time out. HF LLUVIA - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this pony look respectable in this competition. Has to be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last contest. FOLLOW MY SCENT - Rodriguez has solid numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 91

DIXIE BELLE S. - FILLIES, THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $2,000 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START. $125,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 2% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONG ALL OTHER


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 FIVE STAR FACTOR 7/2

# 3 VERTICAL OAK 7/5

# 2 MY SWEET STELLA 6/1

I back FIVE STAR FACTOR here. She has been running soundly and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this field. Competitive selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. VERTICAL OAK - Have to believe this equine will make a good showing again this time around. Ran a sharp last race. MY SWEET STELLA - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. This pony could upset this group at a solid price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 30

Rating:

#2 CHARITABLE ANN (ML=3/1)


CHARITABLE ANN - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Charles Town oval and makes her debut here today. With no recent past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Casey has a +99 percent ROI rate with first-timers.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MARLEE BY MARLEE (ML=5/2), #8 BEELZEBOSS (ML=9/2), #5 GI GI'S SONG (ML=5/1),

MARLEE BY MARLEE - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. Multiple races for this less than sharp equine at Charles Town and still hasn't received her first victory here. BEELZEBOSS - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with M/L odds of 9/2. GI GI'S SONG - 30/27/13, are the decreasing speed figures for this less than sharp equine. Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance clash to be worth the risk at short odds in a sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHARITABLE ANN - My main man Solo turned me onto betting certain trainers with first time starters. Casey is currently on my list.*
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 CHARITABLE ANN to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #4 - Post: 1:51pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $38,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#5 IT IS DEJAVU (ML=8/1)
#9 CRACK ON (ML=6/1)


IT IS DEJAVU - This colt made his debut on December 29th and ran well to finish third at big odds. I'm looking for another big effort from him today. Garnered a nice turf number on December 29th at Fair Grounds. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. CRACK ON - This horse picks up a lot of money per start. I believe he can augment that bankroll today. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep his mind on the race at hand.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRITISH HUMOR (ML=7/2), #10 PLEASANT STREET (ML=9/2), #11 DOC KANE (ML=6/1),

BRITISH HUMOR - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this one when scrutinizing the most recent efforts. This colt hasn't had any positive results in sprint races in the last sixty days. The rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a likely underpriced equine. PLEASANT STREET - In the last race this horse finished tenth. Doesn't look promising for his chances today. Mediocre speed figure last time around the track at Fair Grounds at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much today. DOC KANE - Difficult to play any horse in a sprint race at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last two months. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - IT IS DEJAVU - With the highest last speed rating of 80, this colt looks exceptional against these ponies.*
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #5 IT IS DEJAVU to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST

8.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00

CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE

#2 FLICK OF AN EYE
#3 JUST GOT OUT
#5 ABOUNDING SPIRIT
#7 MORETHANAWARNING

#2 FLICK OF AN EYE. the overall speed leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five starts, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been in her irons on 7 previous occasions, hitting the board in 6 of those rides, winning 4 times, en route to a +109% return on investment in the process, and is back tonight for her 8th ride, gunning for another "Circle Trip." #3 JUST GOT OUT has hit the board in four straight, with three of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4/3,6,7/4,5/2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7,9 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,7,8,9/2,6,7/1,5/1,6 - $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5,6/2,4,5,8/5,6/2 = $32

MEET STATS: 75 - 312 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 29 / $44.70

SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 28 / $44.20

Best Bet: SPIDER MAN HANOVER (11th)

Spot Play: MACH CODE (5th)


Race 1

(4) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS made several moves last week and he still won easily and that came following a one-month break; call to repeat. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER improved immediately for Moreau, but he was still no match for the choice. This exacta has a good chance of repeating here, but it won't pay a lot. (7) PAR INTENDED gained some ground on the top two late last time, but he likely won't be in position to win turning home here. (8) MCKINNEY comes up tagged here and he could be blasting early.

Race 2

(6) AMERICAN VIRGIN almost lasted in this class last week and the rival that nailed him late isn't here this week; top call. (3) NICKLE BAG closed okay but he was out of position last week. He is always a threat in this class. (7) PRESCOTTS HOPE got pushed out wide last week in the second 1/4 which cost him some placings. That line is better than it looks; consider. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT should get a good trip up near the front and is another that isn't out of this.

Race 3

(5) SWAN FOR DEE moves to the middle of the gate and retains the leading driver. Expect an early move this time. (4) READY ANY TIME is in top form and will be the one to fend off in the lane. (2) GIANT MUSCLES should be able to take a smaller share despite moving out of claimers. (6) P L JILL showed some ability at three. She could make the ticket at first asking here as her qualifier was decent.

Race 4

(8) ER ZACH ATTACK showed good speed both early and late last week. He should be prominent throughout here. (7) UF BETTORS HANOVER drops and figures, but he could be overbet. (9) RAFA had a good comeback race. He could be blasting off the gate this time. (3) GOOD FRIDAY THREE is back in decent form after a very long dry spell; consider.

Race 5

(2) MACH CODE drops and gets the potent first-time McNair angle in his favor here; top call. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER drops back into a class where he dominated two back. He's a must-use. (7) HALF A BILLION has raced well for the past four starts, but he is somewhat trip-dependent. He can win with some racing luck. (9) THE WAYFARING MAN drops off a decent comeback effort. Keep him in mind when making vertical wagers.

Race 6

(1) STONEBRIDGE PEACE won vs. similar last week and she has clearly figured things out the past two starts; call to repeat. (5) DEVILS ADVOCATE has really turned it around under Vanderkemp's care. She should be right there vs. these if not too rusty after missing five weeks. (2) CROWN CLASSIC faces easier and she should be heard from here. (7) KEEGAN HO is also capable of waking up in this easier company.

Race 7

(1) ARTISTIC MADISON continues her ascent and can win in this top class too when she is at the top of her game, which she clearly is now. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES was a victim of pace last week. She will likely be on the move earlier here. (4) P L HURRICANE was trapped in until it was too late last week. She should take another share here. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE parlayed an easy trip on the lead into a win last week. I don't see her getting the same trip here.

Race 8

(1) BRINGHOME THEBLUE has excelled for Auciello since returning to this circuit and he should get a good trip here; slight nod. (5) THE REV was just short last week as his form continues to improve; using. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER is sure to try to bottom out this group and he should be included on Pick 4 tickets. (6) SHADOW PLACE is on a good roll and isn't out of this, but he will have more competition for the lead here.

Race 9

(2) SIR GALAHAD made a power move to win last week and he retains aggressive driver Roy facing similar; call to repeat. (4) REEL rates highly, but he will likely be looking for room late which could go either way. (5) P L JACKSON comes off a sharp win vs. similar. He's a threat here starting from a good post. (8) MACH POWER set big fractions on his way to a win vs. easier last week. McNair sticks; using.

Race 10

(6) J JS DELIVERY destroyed easier last week. If he can replicate that mile, he will be tough to overhaul here. (5) ERLE DALE N is the class of this field and he looks ready to roll based on his latest qualifier. (8) SPORTSMANSHIP had a brutally long trip last week. He can fare much better here if he can find a seat early. (3) PERFECT VISTA can pass a few of these late and take a share.

Race 11

(2) SPIDER MAN HANOVER lays over this group and he looks ready to fire a bullet based on his January 13th qualifier. (1) FLAHERTY woke up with a sharp effort last week. He can take a big chunk of this purse with an alert start. (4) SENIOR MARKET exits a quick mile. He can take a slice at a price here off a following trip near the front. (5) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL was wildly overbet last week and didn't make the board. He will be a better price here, but he projects to take a smaller share. (8) QUICK FUN N can close in late for a small share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 84 - 283 / $442.40 (-$133.60)

BEST BETS: 10 - 23 / $38.80 (-$7.20)

Best Bet: CALVIN B (10th)

Spot Play: THE FIRE WITHIN (13th)


Race 1

(5) MAGIC TRICKS could have been short after missing three weeks prior to his 12/30 start and gets a pass for his fifth-place finish from post 10 last time. In a field with many options, I’ll give him one more chance at a price. (1) TO BEACH HIS OWN was a winner when last in for a $10,000 claiming tag. (2) FRATERNITY has raced well in his last two starts and should be close to the action tonight. (8) ALEX BULLVILLE raced well last time to pull off the upset and faces many of the same foes in this spot.

Race 2

(1) WINEMASTER HANOVER has been playing the part of a hot potato as he moves from barn to barn each week. Seven-year-old comes off a nice win and should be in prime position again by showing speed from his inside post. (9) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT just missed versus the top choice last time and is stuck with an outside post once again. (2) NEVER EVER CLEVER was a bit disappointing in her last start. She can rebound in a hurry. (10) ANDY RAY drops down in his second start since September; could improve.

Race 3

It’s hard for me to get excited about any of these horses. I’ll roll the dice with (5) ANGEL CINDY, who gets a barn change as she ships in from Northfield Park. She seems to have some GO to her when she minds her manners and the switch to the big track could help. (7) MILLVILLE ROAD has put together a string of solid efforts but still sports a gloomy 2 for 31 career record. (2) THREEUPTHREEDOWN gets a key trainer change to Richard Johnson and seems likely to go to post as the favorite. That said, I’d didn’t love his qualifier and he was under a drive in victory despite the three length win margin.

Race 4

(10) MY SPIRIT SOARS has his work cut out for him from post 10 and hasn’t won a race since 2015, but this is the weakest field he has seen. He has to be a factor in this spot. (4) REGULUS N has been finishing far back week after week and now visits the basement condition. I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but will finally jump ship if he doesn’t race well Saturday. (8) THAT’S MY OPINION drops down and moves into a live barn, BUT this guy is very inconsistent and unreliable. (6) TRIGGER FINGER adds Gingras and should be considered at least underneath.

Race 5

(3) DASH OF DANGER hasn’t been the same horse in his last two starts that he was three and four starts back. In a field without a standout, I’m hoping the switch to Yannick Gingras can shake this guy up. (2) SHOREVIEW comes off a nice effort and should be forwardly placed for success. (4) PICKWICK has been third or better in three of his last four starts. (5) B FAST EDDIE has been within a few lengths of some of the others ranked a bit higher in this analysis. (9) BORN OF FIRE can’t seem to get away from post 10. If given a good trip, I do believe he can spice up the bottom exotics.

Race 6

I’m finding this race very difficult to decipher. Will Gingras be ultra aggressive with Ontario Success? Will National Seelster revert to his Meadowlands form now that he is back on the big track? Can Durant keep his form versus a more accomplished group here? Ultimately I’m going with the classy (6) HILLBILLY HANOVER to move his winning streak to three because there seems to be a fair amount of speed to set him up from second or third over; Brett Miller’s choice. (1) ONTARIO SUCCESS just missed last time and should only improve with Gingras. (7) NATIONAL SEELSTER, as I wrote above, is very capable. (4) BARIMAH A raced well with Lasix added last time and is fast enough if given the right trip. (5) DURANT can certainly keep rolling.

Race 7

(8) RED SCOOTER wasn’t going very far from the back of the pack at Dover last time but did take a picture here two-back for this $15K claiming tag. Callahan opting to #7 should guarantee we get a fair price. This is a competitive race, so demand value wherever you land. (5) DR C’S Z TAM seems to be rounding into form right now and only needs a smooth journey to menace. (4) JACKSON BRADY has the early speed to control the race and enough form to win if not hounded on the lead. (6) WHATAORSE has proven he is capable of winning for this claiming price but I would prefer him versus a softer field.

Race 8

(2) BLATANTLY BEST is moving up in class on paper but really doesn’t face a tougher group. In a field without a standout, I’d love to see Miller attempt an early brush rather than grinding it out. (7) SPICEBOMB has the ability to put in a nice mile if on his game. (6) DREAMLANDS ART has plenty of back class and did race well two starts back. (8) WAR N MUNN hasn’t been able to put it all together. I do believe he could step up, though.

Race 9

I’m going to take a shot here seeking a big price. (5) JK ALLNITELONG didn’t do anything wrong last week, his first pari-mutuel try since the end of October, finishing evenly while lacking a big kick. In a field without any razor-sharp horses, why can’t this guy improve enough to give us a run for our money at 20-1 or higher? (4) DANCINWITHDELIGHT comes off a solid effort and is obviously the one to beat as the chalk. (1) VICEROY HANOVER gets a better post to work with this week and Brett Miller in the bike. (7) SUCCESSFULLY SAID moves into a new barn.

Race 10

Despite the fact that (6) CALVIN B could be an underlay in this spot off a no-chance closing effort, I’m going to make him my top pick. If he shows up with his best game, he wins. (8) SASSY HANOVER has legitimate early speed and raced well for second while up in class last time; very dangerous. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO drew off to a decisive win last Saturday and may have picked up some confidence. (5) STRATOCASTER couldn’t make a dent as Durant won his second straight last time. Tonight he drops back down to the level of his last win. (2) REASONABLE FORCE adds Gingras for a high percentage barn.

Race 11

(5) SOMESIZESOMESTYLE has been racing well of late and finds a field with ample early speed to set him up. At the very least, he should have a clear path on the rim in this short field. (3) PARNU HANOVER is in career form right now and a major factor. (6) VEGAS VACATION missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 and 2016, but has finally made a string of consecutive starts and now is as good a time as any to take a shot and see what is in the tank.

Race 12

(9) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL was nowhere near the gate last Saturday in his first start with Lasix added. Gelding drops down a notch tonight and I’m willing to give him another shot. (6) FITZ’S Z TAM also moves down the class ladder and adds Gingras. (10) REAL NICE would likely be the favorite from an inside post; chance from outside. (8) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE has a good history here and the speed to menace from the outside.

Race 13

Coming off a five week break, (1) THE FIRE WITHIN was saved and finished up with late pace last time. I think he is sitting on a big mile and the switch to Gingras can only help. (8) PRINCE PALANI is also making his second start off the bench. Veteran knows his way to the winner’s circle. (10) SIR SAM’S Z TAM concludes the ‘off the layoff’ horses in the top three. He was flat his first start back and stuck in post 8 at Yonkers last time. I expect a solid effort for a good check. (2) LUCKY MAN finished second in this class last time. (3) TINK AND TIGER drops out of claimers but gets unlucky against a decent bottom-level field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 1/21 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 13 - 52 / $72.90

BEST BETS: 2 - 5 / $9.80

Best Bet: SOMEWHERE IN L A (6th)

Spot Play: KILLER MARTINI (10th)


Race 1

(3) SNAP TO IT A never really fired last week yet still almost managed to run second; Bamond trainee likely needed that start off a month and he can be tighter tonight. (2) PANSFORMATIVE gets needed post relief and will be much more involved. (5) AMERICAN RAGE is another with back class who should benefit from racing back on consecutive weeks.

Race 2

(4) CHEYENNE SEEBER drops a notch off a rail-sitting trip; he was a winner when last at this level. (3) CHUCARO ACERO BC raced well last week and is starting to prove he belongs with this type. (2) P H KENNY gets needed post relief and will be much closer to the action tonight.

Race 3

(4) PASS THEM BY N finished with pace from a tough spot last week; he gets the nice combo of class and post relief tonight and the versatile veteran can fire from the gate. (2) BETTOREVER also drops and moves in off a needed start; big threat. (3) URBAN RENEWAL has hit the ticket in his four local starts but has yet to win.

Race 4

(2) TYBER TYKE looked very sharp wiring lesser and I'll stick with him. (5) DULL ROAR closed willingly to rally for second last week and he looks like a player here. (7) MATTAMERICAN is stuck with a tough outside post but he is sharp enough to land a piece.

Race 5

(5) BLOOD BROTHER raced very well in his 2017 debut and he lures Bartlett off of (2) P H SUPERCAM....interesting. Overbet? The latter raced well but was a victim of circumstance last week; Zeron gets the call tonight and would certainly be no surprise. (6) ROLAND N ROCK is in career form but needs a bit of help from this outside post assignment.

Race 6

(6) SOMEWHERE N L A went wire-to-wire in his last three and there's nothing in here to prevent him from taking another. (2) DYNAMIC YOUTH has been sharp for an extended period of time for Carl Cito, Jr. (5) GIVENUPDREAMING was second to the top choice last week and should be leaving the gate again.

Race 7

(5) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY raced okay last week while having no real chance; he should be a healthy price in a field full of question marks. (2) ROLLIN RING AFIRE moves to the Banca barn off a good qualifier. (4) HERE WE GO AGAIN is probably the one to beat but he's tough to use on top.

Race 8

(4) DOCTOR BUTCH picks up a new set of hands in Scott Zeron after his regular driver Holland surprisingly opted off; Toscano trainee is probably best here. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY was a winner last week for his new barn and he can handle the bump in class. (1) IRA CHIEF gets class relief and a driver upgrade off a needed start.

Race 9

(4) LUCAN HANOVER had no excuse last week but Bartlett drives again and he deserves another chance. (3) CLASS SIX needed last week's race and he's capable of showing more. (2) BULLET BOB always has good speed but is usually lacking late; use underneath.

Race 10

(1) KILLER MARTINI hasn't put in a bad effort in ages and he gets another good draw; Bucci trainee isn't a prolific winner but if he keeps his good form the wins will come. (3) LORD OF MISRULE was very game in defeat last week. (5) BIG SURF gets Bartlett back in the bike and could be leaving the gate.

Race 11

(5) CASIMIR JITTERBUG is much better than he's shown in his last two starts; time for a wakeup call. (2) BORDER CONTROL A is another ex-Milici horse resurfacing in the Banca barn; he's a threat if ready. (1) KEYSTONE HONOR was second best last week and can round out the ticket from this spot.