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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #5 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 2:30 PM PACIFIC POST
The Sham Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#4 ONTOLOGY
#6 MIDNIGHT HAWK
#1 KRISTO
#2 I'LL WRAP IT UP

Just in case you have forgotten ... this race is named in honor of Sham, who was one of the fastest horses of the 20th century, but was overshadowed by his larger-than-life peer and half-cousin, Secretariat. He was a dark seal brown in color. While racing, he wore green and yellow blinkers. His preferred running style was that of a stalker. In 1973 at the age of three, Sham won the Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) and took second place in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) beating Secretariat, who finished third. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby, he was easily beaten by Linda's Chief in the San Felipe. In the 1973 Kentucky Derby, before 134,476 fans, the largest crowd to see a horse race in the United States to that date, Sham ripped two teeth out on the starting gate. Although bleeding from the start of the race, Sham finished second behind Secretariat, who came away with a 2 1/2 length victory running 1:59 2/5 for the 11/4 miles, the first horse to break two minutes in the Kentucky Derby. (The previous record was 2:00, set by Northern Dancer in 1964.) When asked about the effect of Sham's, Laffit Pincay said, "It's difficult to see how he could have run much better than almost 1:59 4/5, and yet, logically, hitting his head on the gate and losing the teeth couldn't have helped him." By running 2 1/2 lengths behind Secretariat, Sham ran the distance in either 1:594/5 or 2:00. As races were not timed to 1/100th of a second, and nonwinning times were not taken, no exact time is available.

In this year's version of this Grade II event, I'm going with an 8-1 shot, #4 ONTOLOGY as my winner ... he's won three of his last five outings, with two of those "Circle Trips" also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS." #6 MIDNIGHT HAWK comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his "first asking," 28 days ago at Hollywood Park. Jockey Mike Smith was in his irons for that win, which produced a +120% return on investment in the process, and is back this afternoon here at Santa Anita for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate - Race #6 - Post: 3:19pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 KAZAM (ML=4/1)
#8 RED POPPY (ML=10/1)


KAZAM - Rider jumped on this filly's back for the first try on Dec 15th. Should be acquainted with the animal even better this race. She has the uppermost earnings per race. Take a long look at this horse. RED POPPY - A first timer with this conditioner. 'King Jerry' wins a 34 percent of the time in these here situations. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of 'King Jerry'. Better beware of this angle. If you're going to play a 1st timer, play one like this that has regular workouts leading into today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FRENCH TART (ML=2/1), #5 CANDY EYE (ML=3/1), #1 JOSEPHINE'S MOMENT (ML=6/1),

FRENCH TART - This filly earned a speed rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event. CANDY EYE - This mount hasn't been near the victor at the finish of late. Will not be easy for this racer to beat this field off of that last fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. JOSEPHINE'S MOMENT - This racer ran a common speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's race running that figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RED POPPY - This first time starter has had her last 3 morning drills over today's track. According to my information, this is a good sign. Being familiar with the track should benefit this filly.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 KAZAM to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:48 PM EASTERN POST
5½ FURLONGS FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $52,000.00 PURSE

#5 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC
#7 ED'S MAGIC
#8 BILLY THE BULL
#10 MONEY IN ACTION

#5 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a class drop (-2), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 3rd and 4th races back. Jockey Cornelio Velasquez has been in his irons on 5 previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning three times, en route to a +520% return on investment in the process, and is back today for his 6th ride. #7 ED'S MAGIC is 4-1 in the morning line, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in three straight, with his last two efforts, including a win in his 2nd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $5575 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 JDF CHOICE 4/1

# 6 TRES SEIS RIDE 6/5

# 2 SILICONE VALLEY 4/1

JDF CHOICE is the most respectable wager in this race. Has competitive front-end speed and should fare soundly versus this group. TRES SEIS RIDE - Could best this field here, showing very strong figs of late. Is a contender - given the 75 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. SILICONE VALLEY - Has to be considered - I like the numbers from the last competition. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Alw $57,000N1X (12:25 ET)
1 Concealed / 1a Start It Up 7-2
4 Gendarmour 6-1
2 Uman Candy 2-1
7 Rebellious Chic 6-1

Analysis: Concealed is the stronger half of the entry and Lopez is listed to ride both so only one will go. Our top pick set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late, settling for the runner up spot min the slop last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers. The filly caught a racing strip that was snot kind to speed that day. She is going to be part of the pace here and has run well on wet tracks despite not winning, landing in the money in four of five starts. The low profile barn assured we should catch a fair price.

Gendarmour made a mild late rally to finish fifth last out in her first start off a 7 1/2 month layoff. The top two in that race came back to win next out. The winner Hot Rendezvous came back to beat state bred Alw-2 foes on Dec. 20. The mare has run into repeat winners in each of her last four starts including Cluster of Stars, who is now a multiple graded stakes winner, and Lovely Syn, who rolled over state bred stakes company in her next couple of starts. The main question mark is the added ground as she has not been two turns.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $52,000N1X (3:48 ET)
7 Ed's Magic 4-1
5 Marriedtothemusic 4-5
1 The Brothers Rap 15-1
8 Billy the Bull 6-1

Analysis: Ed's Magic put in a game effort last out in his first start against winners, pressing the early pace and missing by just a head while 6 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He broke his maiden two back against state bred $35,000 foes and was claimed out of that win by the Englehart barn. The gelding is going to be more value than our second choice in here who is coming back off the bench.

Marriedtothemusic makes his first start since August for the Galluscio barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The colt is stakes placed versus state breds and has landed in the exacta in five of his six career starts. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and if he runs back to his back numbers he will be tough to beat in this spot. Main knock is the short price.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8
TRI: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,5,7,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 5 The Sham G3 (1:52 PT)
6 Midnight Hawk 8-5
3 Life Is a Joy 12-1
1 Kristo 2-1
5 Top Fortitude 2-1

Analysis: Midnight Hawk was off a beat slow, raced a bit green while pulling early and drew away late to break his maiden in his debut by 6 1/4 lengths on the fake stuff at Hollywood Park. He was well backed, sent off as the 6-5 chalk in a field of six. The colt has been working sharply since that debut and now the Baffert barn takes the hood off as he stretches out to a route here. A mile should be no problem and he looks as if he still has a ton of upside. The barn is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Life Is a Joy is the longest price in the field but is more battled tested than the likely three favs who each are coming off maiden wins. This guy has a stakes win at Fresno and last out ran second in the state breed King Glorious at seven furlongs at Hollywood Park. I like the stretch back out to two turns here for the Hollendorfer barn that is 23% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Kristo burned some serious money in his first two starts and got the job done last out in his third career start and first around two turns. He took the field gate to wire to win by 6 3/4 lengths. He did not beat a real tough group, with two he beat coming back to run second next out but the best Beyer any posted next out was a 66. The $500,000 purchase has a nice pedigree, by Distorted Humor out of the stakes winner Capote's Crown ($132,467).

Top Fortitude earned the top last out speed fig breaking his maiden in his debut, sent off at 8-1 in a field of nine. He does look as if he beat a slightly better group than Kristo did in his maiden win. The colt is a half to Ez Dreamer ($533,948) and Uh Oh Bango ($691,512).

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #7 Distorted Dream 12-1
R3: #1 Superiority / 1a Sneaky Freud 10-1
R4: #6 Truly Mizzed 12-1
R5: #9 J W Blue 8-1
R6: #1 Marketable Miss 10-1
R6: #2 Marriedtomichael 8-1
R7: #5 Go Olivia Go 10-1
R8: #1 The Brothers Rap 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gulfstream Park courtesy of Kevin Cox

Race 1 While I normally don't enjoy endorsing nibblers in the top slot, the #5 GAETANO T may prove an overlay if he is sent off at his 8-1 M.L. odds. After being claimed for $12,500 4 months ago, he's proven to be quite a check earner, with a win, two 2nds, and two 3rds since then . 31% trainer calling the shots, and needs only to replicate Beyers from 2 and 3 starts back to be right there. #4 HARDTAP takes the standard Ramsey plunge to $12,500 after being claimed for $30K in mid May. Obvious threat if sound. Todd Pletcher doesn't run many claimers, and doesn't use many bugs, but appears to be pulling out all the stops here : drop, cut back, 3rd off l/o, etc. Colt was purchased for $450,000 a little over 2 years ago, and can be all yours for $12.5k today

Race 2 We have a couple of Derby runners in this mile long N3X optional claimer. Louisiana Derby winner/Kentucky Derby 3rd place finisher, #1 REVOLUTIONARY makes his return after a 7 month absence. Doubt he'll be fully cranked up for this, but even if he's just 80%, he should gallop. #3 HONORABLE DILLON has a win and a 2nd in 2 starts over the strip, including a win in last years' Hutcheson Stakes G-2. Appears best of remaining 6 horses ( likely fewer than that by post time. ) #5 SILVER MENACE has consistently put forth Beyers in the mid 80's, which puts him squarely on your triple tickets.

Race 3 #2 CALM PACIFIC has done little wrong in his abbreviated career. The 4YO ridgling was less than a length of running a perfect 3 for 3 record at Belmont in the fall, in a 100K stakes, and now attempts to pick up another condition in an easier fashion. Brown trainee should sit a perfect trip with Castellano in the irons. #4 NORTH SLOPE finished ahead of top choice 2 back, then was flat in a followup stakes at The Big A. Figures to be tracking the leader once again. #12 DRAW TWO draws poorly, but has good late closing kick. 5 month layoff no concern, as he won off a 7 month layoff earlier this year. Off Turf :10-8-1

Race 4 I remember when Bill Mott used to be 3-5% FTS. In recent years, he's adapted to the times and gotten that # up to a respectable 9%. He appears to be sitting on a good one here in the #10 ATHENS , as this 3YO colt ( purchased for $550 Big Ones at Keeneland in September of 2012 ) has been scorching up Payson park in the mornings with 4 bullets. You can do a lot worse than 12-1 M.L. in a pretty evenly matched field. Nothing wrong with the #2 JUBA, as he beat 10 of 13 home in debut at Aqueduct. Gets Lasix and cozier slot here, and could be a good price with some other well bred animals signed on . #6 CONSTITUTION,from the Pletcher barn, makes debut off a string of nice breezes at Palm Meadows. Cost $400K at the Spa a year and a half ago.

Race 5 In a very nondescript field of maidens sprinting for a 40K-50K tag, here, we're gonna take an angle at a price. The #3 WAR ARTIST put forth a nice debut here 2 months ago when finishing 5th in the special weight company, earning a respectable 58 Beyer in the process. Not being bred for the turf, I was very surprised to see him entered on the lawn 3 weeks ago, and as expected, ran poorly. That race could've been a "workout within a race" as now Ward has a poor running line potentially scaring off prospective claims today. Ward/Desormeaux click at 31% together ( just 21% and 14% apart ), and 10-1 M.L. seems tasty. #2 RUNKLE has been a popular claim box item recently, having switched barns after his last 2 races. Always puts forth an honest effort and Prado should be able to get this gelding a piece o'pizza. #10 DONEGAL HALL is a steady type, having earned checks in 7 of 8 starts thus far, and that's enough for us to throw him in for 3rd.

Race 6 Maidens going long on the lawn here, and I'm diggin' the chances of the #6 NOTABILITY. After finishing 2nd of 12 in debut ( and beating a return winner in the process ), he was thrown to the wolves when entered in a G-2 at Churchll . He ran respectably that day, however, splitting the field, but is now right where he belongs---on the green stuff. A son of English Channel, and toting along a 396 turf Tomlinson, it would not surprise me to see him improve by leaps and bounds today. #15 GLOBAL STRIKE-AE finished 3rd of 13 when debuting here on the grass last month . Main danger if able to draw in. #11 SMOOTH DADDY just missed in Queens back in mid-November when facing tougher. Solis gets callback and figures right there. Off Turf : 7-1-5

Race 7 #2 ELNAAWI returns off a 9 month layoff, but when last seen, was mixing it up in a contentious Wood Memorial. McLaughlin knows how to get 'em ready, and needn't be much to best this blase' field. #1 STORM WARNINGS is a plodding, plodders', plodder, but does have three 3rds from 5 local starts and is making his 3rd start off the layoff. #8 TARPY'S SURPRISE aired at this DX beneath the Twin Spires in late November, and breeding says that the long game may be his game. Big chance.

Race 8 #14 ROOM SERVICE has a win , a 2nd, and a 3rd from 3 starts over 3 different turf courses. Makes 2nd start here, and with the best figures in the race, should be right there if draws in. #9 DANALIN goes from the Pletcher barn to the Plesa barn after a decent 3rd here facing similar a month ago. Prado keeps the call, and filly figures to hit the board. #7 SPRING LIKE A COBRA sure is battle tested, having run in 3 stakes in her 4 race career, thus far. Gets some class relief, and is even entered for a tag here, in this $75K Opt. Clm. Threat on back class. Off Turf : 9-11-4

Race 9 #8 SLUMBER may be sneaky good in this spot, After missing by a length to Little Mike in the Turf Classic at Belmont,, he went up to Woodbine for the Canadian International and put forth a dull effort. Freshened with some decent breezes since, that figure 2 back is better than anything that anyone in the field has ever run on the grass. 8-1 seems generous. #1 TETRADRACHM is the other half of the Mott uncoupled entry. 3-6 at the distance, this gelding figures to sit the pocket and hope for a seam at the top of the stretch. #6 SUMMER FRONT missed by a lip in a G-2 at Hollywood last out and figures to be flying late. Off Turf : 4-3-10

Race 10 #4 JACKSON BEND has danced every dance, and although his best days may be behind him, he's still capable of firing off a good one here and there, such as the 2nd in the restricted stake last out. Hasn't won since Hector was a pup, but does posess the best last race figure, and at 6-1 M.L., I'm sold. #9 UNCAPTURED gets major rider switch to Rosario, and is 80% ITM lifetime. After the brief freshener, should be coming late. #7 NECK 'N NECK should be included in the exotics, on back class alone. BEATABLE FAVORITE : #2 CSABA---Cross entered in the 9th, this warhorse simply appeared flat to me in the lane last out, and I'm not sold on his chances against a tough group here today.

Race 11#9 AMPERSAND adds blinkers for local debut, and it may be what this horse needs. Steady sort has been knocking on the door recently, and could come through at a nice price for live turf rider. #4 RED VINE is a perfect 5 for 5 ITM, all on the grass, and is logical favorite here, making return of 3 month hiatus for Clement. #3 BIG JOHN B makes 2nd start off $32K claim for Servis, and is entered for $25K today. Likes the course, but fitness only question.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Live Racing has been cancelled at Aqueduct after the first race due to the heavy fog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AQUEDUCT courtesy of Nick Tammaro


Race 1-#2 UMAN CANDY exits a tremendous maiden win in her dirt debut and now figures to get a big pace setup in her first try against winners. She has 3 siblings who won on dirt, so it’s no surprise that she improved on the surface change and there’s plenty of room for improvement with this filly. #1 CONCEALED is the better half of this entry, as she continues to perform at a high level since returning to dirt. Her inside post position is advantageous given the way this surface played on Friday afternoon. #6 ALWAYSINMYCIRCLE is another potential pace player, as she goes 3rd off a layoff for the ice cold Dominick Schettino barn. She was no match last time out after setting the pace as the favorite, but this field is a tad softer than what she met last month.


Race 2-#1A BRABBHAM goes 2nd off a layoff after failing as a 3/2 favorite for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He was ridden patiently in his last start by Irad Ortiz, Jr. and that allowed the eventual winner to cruise on the front end. With other speed signed up, he just may need the help of entrymate #1 FRAME, so together they are a formidable duo. #3 WINTER GAMES was also pace compromised in the same race that Brabbham exits. This well-bred son of A.P. Indy goes 3rd off a layoff this afternoon and will benefit from the expected solid early pace. Look for him in the waning stages if the tempo is strong. #5 KING OF BROADWAY flopped last time out at 1-2 against a very soft field in a race taken off the turf. He has some speed, which will allow him to stay closer early, and that will help his cause.


Race 3-Even though trainer Bruce Levine has struggled a bit in the last 90 days here in NY and that #6 CAST A DOUBT is a deep closer in a paceless race, he towers over his foes on paper. This son of Wildcat Heir is racing in NY for the first time after being claimed at Hollywood, and he kept solid competition in the Golden State. If he can hearken back to some of his races from earlier in 2013, he can stay close to the expected slow pace. #5 TUMMEL is returning quickly after being claimed by Gary Contessa. He was no match for much tougher competition when last seen six days ago, but is in light with the bug girl aboard and looks to be the controlling speed. It’s worth noting that Contessa is 0 for his last 16 with horses first off the claim returning in a week or less. #1A SNEAKY FREUD is a late runner going 3rd off a layoff after moving prematurely last time.


Race 4-#7 FADE TO BLACK ran into a smashing debut winner last time out and wound up a clear 2nd as the 3/5 favorite. She faces a soft field outside of #3 U.S.S. O’BRIEN this afternoon and will be on the lead with her typical early zip. The latter is looking to break through after torching suitcases worth of money in her prior three starts. She had no real excuse when beaten at 6/5 last time out, but this is her first try against two turns and she is bred to improve with additional distance. #5 ISLAND CANDY stretches out off of a good debut effort at Laurel for trainer George Weaver. She closed well to snag the show dough and is also bred to improve with more ground.


Race 5-A wide trip spelled doom for #1 TERMINUS in his last start, as he covered 68 feet more than the eventual winner, who came from well off the pace to get the win. This son of Pulpit has improved in recent starts and is going to get a good pace setup today as one of the choices. #4 STAR OF SARAVA enters off a huge win in a 9k seller at Penn National, so you have to wonder how he classes up in this field. He is a versatile gelding who can stay close in the opening stages, which will help his chances from start to finish. #7 SMOKIN CANDY gets some class relief today and fits well at this level. He’s performed well on this strip and will offer value.


Race 6-#2 MARRIEDTOMICHAEL is a sibling of Marriedtothemusic, who will be one of the favorites in the 8th race today. She hails from the barn of Dominic Galluscio, who hits at a 29% clip with firsters on the inner track, good for a $3.43 ROI. While Patriot Act has not been a particularly productive debut sire, this filly has worked well and gets an aggressive pilot in the irons. #9 BOSSY BOOTS is one of two runners in here who worked :10 and 1/5 at the OBS April sale. She was taken for 165k at that sale and will now be the first foal to race out of an unraced dam. She’s by Street Boss, whose progeny win their debuts at a 20% clip, and this is a barn that can have one ready on debut. #11 SARATOGA SHOES is in the care of a solid debut trainer and also worked :10 and 1/5 at Ocala in April. She is also out of an unraced dam, but is kin to Bwana Babe, who has banked over 100k in a productive career. Her 3-1 morning line price leads you to believe word is out about her morning drills.


Race 7-#10 MY SPARKY is dropping in class, as she has been facing 25k optional sellers in recent starts. She is a versatile mare who can get control from the outset today if the situation presents itself. Either way, her speed will help her overcome the outside draw. This barn has also been red-hot of late. #3 STARSHIP ELUSIVE is another who has run well against tougher in recent outings and should be moving well late. The re-draw left her in a far better post position, so look for her in the waning stages. #8 ANOTHER PAGE exits a narrow win in an off the turfer and now goes 2nd off a short layoff. She began her career with a strong outing on this surface and will once again be in range from the outset today.


Race 8-#5 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC is returning off a brief layoff for trainer Dominic Galluscio, as he has not been seen since Travers day at Saratoga. He had a productive meet at the Spa, winning a starter allowance affair before picking up a stakes placing. He is the controlling speed in this bulky field, and if he duplicates any of his last four races, he’ll win handily. #1 THE BROTHERS RAP never found his way into the clear last time out, in his first start off a lengthy layoff. He is a late runner who’ll need some pace help as he goes 2nd off the bench. Look for him in the waning stages. #7 ED’S MAGIC ran back to a gritty maiden win in his first start off a claim by trainer Jeremiah Englehart. He is capable of rating in the opening stages, which will help him avoid a duel with the top pick. With further improvement, he has an upset chance at a price.


Race 9-#10 EUROKAY BY ME moved aggressively around the far turn in her last start before flattening out late. She is an off the pace type who’ll need a good tempo to run at in the latter stages, but she’ll offer value. There’s a few in here who can mix it up early and that’ll help. #8 ELLEN DORENE is the one to catch, as she is a bit quicker than her rivals in the opening stages. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is 25% with claimers on dirt exiting maiden wins, good for a $2.07 ROI. If she gets clear, they’ll have a hard time catching her. #4 PEGGY VIRGINIA exploded on the surface change last time out and has run a pair of credible races on dirt. High percentage trainer Mike Hushion has chosen a realistic spot for her first try against winners and she still has upside

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Live Racing has been cancelled at Aqueduct after the first race due to the heavy fog.