GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE ANALYSIS
Key releases
RICE by 2 over Vanderbilt
PURDUE by 3 over Notre Dame
SOUTHERN CAL by 56 over Washington St.
OREGON STATE by 13 over Arizona
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
*Mississippi 31 - SOUTH CAROLINA 22—Favor payback-minded Ole Miss,
eager for rematch after failing to come down off cloud nine following Florida
upset previous week in LY’s lackluster 31-24 home loss vs. South Carolina.
Rebel triggerman Snead owns the more established ground attack, featuring
slashing RB Bolden (176 YR, 8 ypc). Look for Snead & prime-time WRs
McCluster & Hodge to hurt immature ‘Cock 2ndary starting a true frosh & soph
at CB. And with hard-charging Ole Miss DL applying pressure and now-cohesive
2ndary hardly resembling unit burned in LY’s series setback, Nutt’s road-tested
bunch (8-1 vs. spread last 9 away) extends overall winning streak to nine.
CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-S. Car. 31-MISS. 24...M.21-20 M.33/118 S.35/78 S.22/32/1/327 M.21/32/1/243 S.0 M.2)
(08-South Carolina +2' 31-24...SR: Mississippi 8-6)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
*Missouri 37 - NEVADA 24—Nevada usually offers much better value in
Reno (19-8 vs. line at home since ‘04), but formful Wolf Pack can only be trusted
as a bully. And Nevada’s historic inability to “step up” should be exposed again
vs. percolating Mizzou bunch gaining more confidence under new QB Gabbert
(68%, 8 TDP & 0 picks) . Wolf Pack “Pistol” (only 10 ppg) mostly shooting itself
in foot these days as foes keeping QB Kaepernick (4 picks in two starts) in
relative check. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-MO. 69-Nev. 17...M.25-22 N.44/182 M.29/132 M.27/36/0/519 N.21/40/1/180 M.0 N.0)
(08-MISSOURI -26' 69-17...SR: Missouri 1-0)
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
Wake Forest 26 - BOSTON COLLEGE 19—Eagles had just 54 total yards at
Clemson last week, accumulating as many first downs (4!) as they did turnovers.
Now that Wake HC Grobe ( 16-8 last 24 as dog) is back in touch with his inner
caveman and is pounding the rock on the ground (as he did early in his tenure
at Winston-Salem), count on Deacons’ savvy sr. QB Skinner to orchestrate
winning road effort.
(08-Bos. Col. 24-W. FOR. 21...B.14-9 B.44/97 W.28/65 B.16/27/0/137 W.14/28/2/126 B.3 W.0)
(08-Bc +1' 24-21 07-BC -6 38-28 06-WFU +4 21-14...SR: Boston College 8-6-2)
OHIO STATE 27 - Illinois 20—Indications are that Illinois QB Juice Williams
is recovering well from his quad injury in the week off. While the Illini will miss
LB Wilson (back injury; lost for season), the bye week allowed HC Zook’s team
to regain services of several injured players. OSU bounced back in a big way
in 38-0 whitewash of Toledo, but talented Illini are a moneymaker as a Big Ten
road dog and outgained the Buckeyes 455-354 last season; 400-336 in 2007.
OSU QB Pryor will get his yards (110 YR last week; 110 vs. Illini LY), but Illinois
offense will counter. TV—ABC
(08-Ohio St. 30-ILL. 20...I.25-16 O.52/305 I.35/214 I.20/34/1/241 O.6/10/0/49 O.1 I.1)
(08-Osu -9' 30-20 07-Ill. +15 28-21 06-Osu -25 17-10...SR: Ohio State 61-30-4)
NORTHWESTERN 30 - Minnesota 24—NW QB Kafka threw for 390 yds. &
3 scores at Syracuse, but it wasn’t enough as Wildcat defense couldn’t stop the
Orange down the stretch. Minnesota showed some character in rebounding
from a 14-0 deficit against Cal to tie the game and give powerful Bears a scare
(21-21 with under 8 mins. left). However, Gopher WR Decker (3rd in nation in
rec. yds.) might be gimpy and Minny “D” .
(08-North. 24-MINN. 17...M.20-16 N.41/220 M.25/68 M.32/52/1/327 N.12/16/2/143 N.0 M.1)
(08-Nwu +7 24-17 07-NWU -6' 49-48 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 49-30-5)
MICHIGAN 38 - Indiana 12—Both teams off to 3-0 starts, but similarities end
there. Revitalized Michigan is getting more ground production than it has in the
last decade thanks to Rich Rodriguez’ spread and the instant success of handpicked
true frosh triggerman Forcier. If experienced Wolverine OL can block
Hoosier DE stars Middleton & Kirlew, this one’s over early.
(06-Michigan -19 34-3...SR: Michigan 50-9)
Buffalo 24 - TEMPLE 14—Temple is 1-20 SU the last 4+ seasons before Oct.
1, and Owls’ 107th-ranked offense doesn’t look as if it’s capable of testing the
Buffalo defense the way much more talented Pitt and UCF did the last two
weeks. Bull QB Maynard (743 YP, 6 TDP) likely to hurt Owl 2ndary that’s yielded
4 TDP & has intercepted just 1 pass in first 2 games. Buffalo HC Gill’s team will
win the turnover battle this week.
(08-BUF. 30-Temple 28...B.24-19 T.27/104 B.31/101 B.29/42/1/348 T.24/33/0/285 B.1 T.1)
(08-BUF. -6' 30-28 07-Buf. +3' 42-7 06-BUF. -6 9-3 (OT)...SR: Buffalo 4-0)
Michigan State 31 - WISCONSIN 26—MSU coming off back-to-back bitter
defeats, but return of WR Dell (120 yds. at ND) and rapid development of
Spartan QB Cousins (66%; just 1 int.) has to be encouraging for HC Dantonio.
Wisconsin has been a money-burning 8-17 last 25 against the points, and
defense hasn’t quite adjusted to the suspensions and lineup shuffling since
spring, while Spartans defend the run better than Badgers. Totals note: Last six
in the series “over” the total.
(08-MICH. ST. 25-Wis. 24...W.21-20 W.47/281 M.29/25 M.20/45/0/287 W.14/29/0/149 M.1 W.1)
(08-MSU -5' 25-24 07-WIS. -7' 37-34...SR: Michigan State 27-20)
Tcu 23 - CLEMSON 17—Go-with vs. go-with. Young Clemson HC Swinney
has covered 7 of his last 9; veteran Horned Frog mentor Patterson counters with
a 13-5 spread mark in his last 18 board games. Tigers can strike from anywhere
on field with supersonic seniors WR Ford and RB Spiller (15 career TDs covering
50+ yards!), whose latest foot/toe injury is not considered serious. But
seasoned TCU jr. QB Dalton more likely to move chains than green RS frosh
Clemson counterpart Parker (just 47%).
(DNP...SR: Clemson 2-1)
Rutgers 28 - MARYLAND 20—Demoralized Terp defense allowed 52 points
& 542 yards during opener at Cal, got bowled over for 268 YR in OT win over
James Madison, and then strafed for 351 yards in air during home loss to Middle
Tennessee. Can Rutgers offense take full advantage with either raw true frosh
QB Savage (just 11 of 28 last week vs. FIU) or limited sr. Natale (benched after
3 ints. in first half of opener) at the trigger?
(07-Maryland +18 34-24...SR: Maryland 5-3)
*Boise State 37 - BOWLING GREEN 13—With BCS-buster BSU leapfrogging
the other non-BCS squad, BYU, in polls, prefer supremely-motivated &
confident Broncos, who’re just a safety away from an 8-0 road chalk mark since
late Oct. 2007. Normally-stifling BSU defense has been called out by HC
Petersen for missing lots of tackles in 51-34 victory at Fresno State. And expect
BSU’s super-soph QB Moore to outduel Falcon counterpart Sheehan, frustrated
by Broncos topnotch CBs K. Wilson & B. Thompson. Falcons lifeless ground
game (10 YR vs. Marshall!) offers no help.
(08-BOISE 20-B. Green 7...G.22-16 Bs.33/160 G.36/103 G.22/36/1/204 Bs.18/23/0/180 Bs.1 G.2)
(08-BOISE STATE -17 20-7...SR: Boise State 2-0)
*TENNESSEE 23 - Ohio 14—Though UT hung surprisingly tough in 23-13
loss at Florida, not interested in laying DDs vs. industrious Ohio squad that’s 5-
1 as DD road dog since ‘06 (only spread loss at Mizzou in ‘06). Have more faith
in Bobcats dual-threat sr. T. Scott (career-best 239 YP last week) than Vols stillshaky
Crompton (7 ints. TY), who has little rapport with a green corps of WRs.
And doubt Lane Kiffin’s “smashmouth” tactics dominate vs. Bobcats veteran,
sure-tackling front 7, spearheaded by omnipresent MLB Keller. (FIRST MEETING)
EAST CAROLINA 24 - Ucf 23—After covering 20 of his first 28 at helm of
Pirates, ECU HC Holtz is just 3-11 vs. spread his last 14 on board. Meanwhile,
UCF mentor O’Leary is 10-4 as dog since late 2006, and Wake transfer Hodges
finally giving Golden Knights a little stability at QB. Pirates outscored 41-5 after
intermission TY.
(08-E. Car. 13-UCF 10 (OT)...E.17-12 E.44/134 U.37/82 E.13/34/1/149 U.9/21/1/142 E.1 U.2)
(08-Ecu -3' 13-10 (OT) 07-ECU +3' 52-38 06-Ecu -5' 23-10...SR: East Carolina 7-1)
CINCINNATI 42 - Fresno State 20—Cincy’s 6-6 sr. QB Pike (923 YP on 71%
completions in first 3 games!) is light years ahead of shaky Bulldog jr. lefty
Colburn (already 6 ints. TY). Visiting dog has historically been good pointspread
role for fiery Fresno HC Hill, but must note he’s just 11-30-1 in last 42 against
line overall. Bearcats’ defensive speed will keep rampaging Bulldog RB
Matthews (nation-leading 447 YR) from running wild. (FIRST MEETING)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 - Akron 16—Check status of Akron sr. QB
Jacquemain, who was suspended prior to last week’s double-digit home loss to
Indiana. Don’t want Zips at competent Central Michigan if soph backup Rodgers
(4 ints. against Hoosiers) still under center opposing Chippewa star QB LeFevour.
(07-Cmu -3 35-32 06-CMU +1 24-21...SR: Central Michigan 12-9-1)
Lsu 34 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 12—Now that MSU has LSU’s full attention
following 15-3 upset at Vandy, would lay fair number with superior Tiger squad
that’s covered 8 of past 10 in series (last 8 wins by avg. 32-pt. margin). Look for
crafty d.c. John Chavis to stack line vs. Bulldogs (56 rushes, just 18 pass
attempts vs. ‘Dores), putting undue pressure on unfinished QBs Lee & Relf.
Meanwhile, LSU’s better-balanced, star-studded attack bedazzles MSU defense,
overmatched (allowed 49 pts. & 589 yds. in 25-pt. loss) by
similarly-equipped Auburn arsenal two weeks ago.
(08-LSU 34-Miss. St. 24...L.22-13 L.37/166 M.31/110 L.18/27/1/261 M.17/26/0/175 L.1 M.0)
(08-LSU -24' 34-24 07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17...SR: LSU 66-33-3)
*IOWA STATE 24 - Army 20—Disciplined Army has been a fairly-decent
traveler, covering 5 of its last 6 as a visitor. And ISU only 2-6 its last 8 when
favored. Cyclones took full advantage of true frosh Kent State QB Spencer Keith
making his first start in last week’s ISU 34-14 victory. Black Knights’ true frosh
QB Trent Steelman making his fourth start. Cyclones generate few long gainers;
veteran Army defense gives up few.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
MEMPHIS 32 - Marshall 21—Tigers benched unsteady incumbent sr. signalcaller
Hall last week in favor of soph Bass, who fired 4 TDP while rushing for 80
yards & another score during easy home win over Tennessee-Martin. Even with
star Memphis RB Steele (knee; 1223 YR in 2008) sidelined, still lean to host
Tigers over poor-traveling Marshall ( just 5-16 vs. spread last 21 away from
Huntington!).
(08-MAR. 17-Mem. 16...Me.26-16 Ma.33/179 Me.29/94 Me.29/54/0/368 Ma.14/29/0/224 Ma.0 Me.1)
(08-MAR. -4' 17-16 07-MEMP. -2' 24-21 06-MAR. -9' 41-27...SR: EVEN 2-2)
*TEXAS A&M 35 - Uab 13—A&M defense (13 points allowed last 6 mins. of
38-30 win) coughed up the cover last week vs. Utah State, but Aggies confirmed
they are a burgeoning offensive juggernaut (606 yards, 573 yards) in two games
so far. HC Mike Sherman unveiled true frosh WR Uzoma Nwachukwu (3 TDC,
1 TDR) last week, and dual-threat QB Jerrod Johnson now has 6 TDP vs. 0
interceptions. UAB QB Webb is slick, but lacks dynamic supporting cast.
(FIRST MEETING)
KANSAS 37 - Southern Miss 17—USM’s Larry Fedora emerged as head
coaching material after a 3-year stint as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma
State, where he split with KU in two meetings. But even with Eagles’ respected
firepower, offensive edge still goes to beautifully-balanced Jayhawks, whose
heady QB Todd Reesing (37 TDs, only 14 ints. 2008-09) being aided by 235-
pound true frosh power back Toben Opurum (5 TDs TY). KU 8-2 as DD home
favorite. (FIRST MEETING)
AIR FORCE 31 - San Diego State 20—Although uninspired effort at Idaho
might indicate otherwise, much-maligned SDSU “D” probably better equipped to
deal with Air Force option than in recent years simply because new d.c. Rocky
Long had plenty of experiencing facing it (and occasional success slowing it
down) while at New Mexico. And Falcs might be using backup Dietz at QB if
more-explosive Jefferson sidelined by bad ankle. Capable Aztec QB Lindley
should keep visitors within earshot.
(08-Air For. 35-S. DIEGO ST. 10...A.30-12 A.77/401 S.27/35 S.19/38/2/130 A.5/7/0/72 A.2 S.0)
(08-Afa -10' 35-10 07-AFA -12 55-23 06-SDS +13 19-12...SR: Air Force 18-9)
*** *RICE 25 - Vanderbilt 23—Sight of often-invisible Rice “D” (47 ppg)
might be just what the doctor ordered for Vandy o.c. Ted Cain’s “Rockettes” (1-
2-3- kick!) attack that made Miss. State’s “D” look like the Baltimore Ravens in
last week’s 15-3 loss. But hard to lay any meaningful points with Dore “O” that’s
been held to 16 or fewer in 10 of last 11 games vs. FBS opposition. Rice spread
finally started to get the hang of things at Ok. State, and Owls 18-5 as home dog
since ‘99. Easy to envision upset.
(08-VANDY 38-Rice 21...R.23-22 V.43/273 R.34/108 R.25/40/1/299 V.7/16/0/71 V.0 R.1)
(08-VANDERBILT -8 38-21...SR: Vanderbilt 3-1)
*AUBURN 45 - Ball State 7—Since o.c. Malzahn’s well-designed, highpowered
attack running as smoothly as a Ferrari, must “lay it” with well-conditioned
Auburn, which has outscored opposition 79-20 in 2nd H. BSU’s erratic QB Page
(5 ints. TY; 3 vs. Army), who was benched in loss at West Point, figures to
implode again vs. ball-hawking Auburn 2ndary (5 ints. vs. WV). Outclassed
Cards, destroyed 63-3 on The Plains in 2005, won’t fare much better in ‘09 trip
vs. re-energized Tigers.
(DNP...SR: Auburn 2-0)
Unlv 25 - WYOMING 24—UNLV displaying some bowl-caliber signs, but still
not sure we want to lay points away with Rebs, who are just 2-9 overall as chalk
since ‘05 for Mike Sanford and haven’t covered as road favorite since John
Robinson was still at the helm back in ‘03. Dave Christensen struggling to get
his new Wyo spread moving as he continues to look for a QB (three used last
week at Colorado). But yielding UNLV “D” gives Cowboys a better chance than
vs. recent Big XII foes Texas & Buffs.
(08-UNLV 22-Wyo. 14...U.20-15 U.50/166 W.33/151 U.17/31/0/157 W.12/21/2/143 U.0 W.1)
(08-UNLV -7 22-14 07-WYO. -11 29-24 06-Wyo. -9' 34-26...SR: UNLV 9-8)
ALABAMA 33 - Arkansas 20—With pointspread rising following last week’s
disparate results, give offensively-potent Arkansas a shot to hang inside roomy
number in Tuscaloosa, where Tide just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host.
Hogs’ strong-armed QB Mallett (408 YP vs. Georgia) & his blossoming soph
WRs (Childs & Wright combined 248 receiving yds. vs. Dawgs) should give Tide
2ndary its toughest test so far. And while Bama QB McElroy is real deal, believe
seasoned Hog defense displays greater passion & purpose following embarrassing
51-pt. allowance last week. TV—CBS
(08-Ala. 49-ARK. 14...Ar.19-15 Al.35/328 Ar.31/92 Ar.24/46/4/217 Al.6/15/1/74 Al.0 Ar.0)
(08-Ala. -9 49-14 07-ALA. -3 41-38 06-ARK. -2' 24-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 23-15)
*Florida 42 - KENTUCKY 10—Though UF didn’t beat down UT the way
envisioned, still support Gators, who’ve not had consecutive spread losses
since late Sept. ‘07! UF’s field general Tebow has more typical Heisman-like
performance after failing to throw TDP for the 1st time in 31 games and making
a couple of TOs (converted into 10 pts.) vs. Vols. Contrarily, Wildcats drop-back
QB Hartline flatlines vs. deep Gator defense that hasn’t allowed a meaningful TD
TY. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-FLA. 63-Ky. 5...F.23-17 F.41/214 K.33/141 F.13/18/1/232 K.17/36/1/127 F.0 K.0)
(08-FLA. -25' 63-5 07-Fla. -7 45-37 06-FLA. -26' 26-7...SR: Florida 42-17)
*GEORGIA 30 - Arizona State 24—Since ASU has essentially had nearly a
month to prepare for revenge game vs. UGA, suggest “taking” vs. Bulldog squad
that continues to have serious 2ndary issues under beleaguered d.c. Martinez
(yielded a whopping 718 YP vs. USC & Arkansas!). No solutions found vs. Sun
Devils’ strong-armed, 5th-year sr. QB Sullivan & productive WRs. And since
ASU reportedly boasts its best front 7 in years, not sure Bulldog offense
explodes vs. redemptive Pac-10 foe itching to erase memory of 5-7 ‘08
campaign (tied for its worst since ‘01). CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-Georgia 27-ARIZ. ST. 10...G.24-14 G.39/176 A.19/4 G.16/28/0/285 A.23/36/0/208 G.0 A.1)
(08-Georgia -7 27-10...SR: Georgia 1-0)
California 34 - OREGON 22—Pac-10 sources suspect last week’s results
more meaningful for Cal, which proved it could win in hostile territory (which it
hasn’t done in recent years) at Minnesota. Meanwhile, Oregon’s success over
Utah tempered by fact that QB Masoli (just 4 of 16 thru air vs. Utes) still
resembling a shell of himself from LY, when Chip Kelly wasn’t encumbered by
HC duties as he is now. Bear QB Riley (0 ints.) finally heeding Jeff Tedford’s
advice and cutting down mistakes, and big-play Cal “D” more likely to make
momentum-changing plays. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-CAL. 26-Ore. 16...O.21-16 O.50/206 C.40/132 C.20/39/1/216 O.11/32/2/84 C.4 O.1)
(08-CAL. -3 26-16 07-Cal. +6' 31-24 06-CAL. -5 45-24...SR: California 39-30-2)
FLORIDA STATE 33 - South Florida 13—Ambitious South Florida trying to
adjust on the fly after record-setting sr. QB Grothe suffered season-ending knee
injury during easy home romp over Charleston Southern. Bulls’ cocky defense will
battle hard but is stepping waaaaaaaay up in class against blossoming Florida State
attack, which had its way with well-regarded BYU stop unit in last week’s surprising
win at Provo. TV—ESPNU (FIRST MEETING)
North Carolina 21 - GEORGIA TECH 20—Desperation is a powerful motivator,
and Georgia Tech will fall to 0-2 in ACC’s Coastal Division with a loss to Tar
Heels. But prefer to shade fundamentals, which find Carolina with an emerging
cast of young receivers and enough speed on defense to keep Jackets’ option
mostly bottled up. Heel HC Butch Davis has covered 7 of his last 9 as dog.
(08-N. CAR. 28-Ga. Tech 7...G.20-13 G.54/326 N.42/186 N.8/19/0/128 G.10/23/1/97 N.0 G.2)
(08-UNC -4' 28-7 07-TECH -10' 27-25 06-Tech -13' 7-0...SR: Georgia Tech 23-18-3)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34 - Idaho 25—Could excuse buoyant NIU for some
extra celebration after rare win in Big Ten country at Purdue. And mini 5-7 RB
Me’co Brown (6.5 ypc) emerging as MAC version of Oregon State mighty-mite
Jacquizz Rodgers. But Idaho not as helpless this year now that jr. QB Enderle
has a competent infantry diversion, and Vandals providing some unaccustomed
value (3-0 vs. line!) out of gate. (07-Northern Illinois +3 42-35...SR: Northern Illinois 3-2)
BYU 33 - Colorado State 23—Perhaps angry BYU will take out its frustrations
after Florida State debacle. But with Cougs having to re-calibrate their
postseason aspirations downward toward the Las Vegas Bowl after BCS
dreams were shattered by the Seminoles, we’re not convinced the Provo bunch
can extend margin vs. undervalued CSU. Rams now on 6-game win streak (5-0
vs. line) as sr. QB Stucker emerges as a serviceable offensive pilot.
(08-Byu 45-COLO. ST. 42...B.32-19 B.35/162 C.29/131 B.28/35/1/389 C.19/36/0/270 B.2 C.1)
(08-Byu -14' 45-42 07-BYU -21 35-16 06-Byu -15 24-3...SR: BYU 37-27-3)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31 - Pittsburgh 26—Even though much-maligned
Pitt sr. QB Stull (70% in 2009) looking like late a bloomer, still give edge
to State’s soph signal-caller R. Wilson, who’s riding NCAA-record streak of 329
pass attempts without an interception. If Wolfpack defense slows down
sensational Panther true frosh RB D. Lewis (398 YR), Wilson (4 TDP in each of
last two games) will make the winning plays. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(DNP...SR: Pittsburgh 5-2-1)
*STANFORD 23 - Washington 13—It’s been a few years (try 2001, when this
coaching matchup featured Ty Willingham vs. Rick Neuheisel) since a Stanford-
U Dub game meant much in the Pac-10. But if Huskies still on cloud nine (which
would be understandable) after rousing SC upset, Jim Harbaugh’s bunch ready
to bring UW back to earth. Slamming RB Gerhart (105 ypg) providing effective
diversion for maturing Card RS frosh QB Luck, and vet Stanford “D” can keep
tabs on Jake Locker.
(08-Stan. 35-WASH. 28...W.27-21 S.36/244 W.38/140 W.18/36/0/237 S.16/24/0/222 S.1 W.1)
(08-Stan. +3 35-28 07-Wash. -3 27-9 06-Stan. +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-35-4)
*KENT STATE 31 - Miami-Ohio 20—Miami finally put some points on the
board against W. Mich., but not until after the RedHawk defense had dug a 35-
0 hole for Mike Haywood’s team. Kent has offensive shortcomings of its own.
Altnough QB situation remains clouded by injuries to Morgan & Magazu, frosh
Keith did okay against Iowa St., throwing for 255 yds. & 2 TDs and connecting
with 10 different receivers in loss to Cyclones.
(08-Kent St. 54-MIAMI 21...K.24-18 K.54/305 M.33/147 M.18/31/2/171 K.12/20/0/163 K.0 M.4)
(08-Ksu +4' 54-21 07-Miami +9 20-13 06-Ksu +12' 16-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 28-21-2)
*UTAH 29 - Louisville 24—It’s obviously not 2008 anymore for Utah, which
is missing a lot of playmakers from LY’s unbeaten crew. And if recurring
sloppiness (7 TOs already) doesn’t abate, Utes will have problems extending
margin vs. Steve Kragthorpe’s Louisville bunch that is finally finding some
offensive balance with new QB Burke emerging as competent accomplice along
with slashing RB V. Anderson. Note Utah no covers in three tries this season.
(07-Utah +14' 44-35...SR: Utah 3-0)
Miami-Florida 23 - VIRGINIA TECH 19—Somewhat wary of public skewing
spread toward Hurricanes, as Miami bandwagon filling up fast after impressive
wins at Florida State & vs. Georgia Tech. And revenge-minded Virginia Tech HC
Beamer almost always exacts his pound of flesh, the Hokies covering 6 of their
last 7 in payback mode. Hard to ignore that composed Cane soph QB Harris
(70%) is a much more confident passer than Tech counterpart Taylor, however.
(08-MIAMI 16-Va. Tech 14...V.14-13 M.42/123 V.38/77 V.12/20/0/173 M.8/18/0/124 M.1 V.0)
(08-MIAMI -4 16-14 07-TECH -16' 44-14 06-Tech -2 17-10...SR: Miami-Florida 17-9)
*** *PURDUE 34 - Notre Dame 31—Purdue’s might yield some yards and
points to ND QB Clausen (2nd in country in passing efficiency), but feel Purdue
RB Bolden (140 ypg rushing) and his experienced OL can play a little keepaway.
ND was extremely fortunate to get away with a win against Michigan State, and
with Purdue coming off a pair of disappointing losses, would shade a Boiler
bounceback at home against a defensively-vulnerable, high profile target.
Charlie Weis’ offensive options not quite the same with homerun WR Floyd
sidelined. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-N. DAME 38-Purdue 21...23-23 N.40/201 P.17/103 P.29/55/1/359 N.20/35/0/275 N.0 P.0)
(08-UND -1' 38-21 07-PUR. -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21...SR: Notre Dame 52-26-2)
TEXAS 44 - Utep 16—Longhorns mostly toyed with host UTEP LY while
helping the Miners build a sellout crowd (thanks to thousands of Texas-Exes).
UTEP’s only win TY was at impotent N.M. State, but Miners have a veteran
offense and slightly improved defense. UT has yet to cover its big 2009 imposts,
and Mack Brown eager to develop younger players with his eye on Oct. 17
shootout vs. Oklahoma.
(08-Texas 42-UTEP 13...T.26-23 U.31/145 T.31/122 T.20/29/1/282 U.25/46/0/267 T.0 U.1)
(08-Texas -27 42-13...SR: Texas 1-0)
*PENN STATE 24 - Iowa 19—Warmups are over, and they’re playing for
keeps in the Big Ten. A bit more impressed with Iowa’s 3-0 start than Penn
State’s, as Hawkeyes’ quality wins vs. Iowa St. & Arizona trump Penn State’s
lightweight schedule. Certainly, Paterno’s crew will be reminded about last
year’s loss in Iowa City, which cost Nittany Lions a possible shot at the BCS
Champsionship game, but can’t lay more than 7 points against heady Hawkeye
QB Stanzi and emerging frosh RB Adam Robinson.
(08-IOWA 24-Penn St. 23...P.24-19 P.46/180 I.32/101 I.15/25/1/171 P.10/24/1/109 I.1 P.1)
(08-IOWA +7' 24-23 07-PSU -9 27-7...SR: Penn State 12-9)
*HOUSTON 45 - Texas Tech 41—Potent Red Raiders won’t take this trip
lightly after Houston went to Stillwater and knocked off Oklahoma State. Still,
Tech coming off draining battle at hated Texas, while Cougars benefit from an
extra week of prep, as well as the swagger they gained in upsetting Cowboys.
With gun-slinging jr. QB Keenum (51 TDP vs. only 12 ints. in last 1+ seasons!)
firing away, UH fully capable of prevailing in shootout with former Southwest
Conf. rival Tech. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(DNP...SR: Houston 17-10-1)
*New Mexico State 20 - NEW MEXICO 19—It’s the “Land of (Dis)Enchantment”
these days, as the state’s two top programs endure growing pains under
respective new mentors Mike Locksley (UNM) and DeWayne Walker (NMSU).
Not sure we can make a strong case for either, but Walker’s Aggies at least seem
to be committed to establishing a ground component, while Locksley’s misfiring
Lobo spread ready to make switch at QB (starter Porterie pulled in favor of RS
frosh Holbrook vs. Air Force).
(08-N. Mex. 35-N. MEX. ST. 24...U.23-15 U.63/297 S.18/48 S.24/38/1/382 U.7/16/1/55 U.0 S.0)
(08-Unm -3 35-24 07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28...SR: New Mexico 66-28-5)
*** *SOUTHERN CAL 56 - Washington State 0—Unless SMU’s Bo Levi
Mitchell shows up at QB this week for SC (let’s not give Pete Carroll any crazy
ideas) after Wazzu picked off the Mustang pilot 4 times and returned two of
those for TDs last week, hard to imagine limited Cougs getting on the board
vs. angry SC stop unit. Remember, Troy was eased up in LY’s 69-0 rout in
the Palouse, and Carroll shows little mercy coming off a loss (6-1 vs. points
off last 7 SU losses).
(08-S. Cal 69-WASH. ST. 0...S.28-4 S.49/362 W.37/88 S.16/21/0/263 W.6/9/1/28 S.0 W.2)
(08-Usc -43 69-0 07-USC -25 47-14 06-Usc -16' 28-22...SR: Southern Cal 56-8-4)
*** *OREGON STATE 29 - Arizona 16—Since Arizona o.c. Sonny Dykes’
spread still unsettled on a pilot (ineffective starter QB Scott pulled in 4th Q at Iowa
for backup Foles) and star TE Gronkowski now lost for season, not sure Cats are
going to fare much better at Corvallis than they did at Iowa City. OSU has no
sympathy for UA woes after facing Cincy’s deadeye Tony Pike, and Mike Riley
due to be welcoming back the other half of his two-headed QB monster (sr.
Moevao due back from shoulder woes) to give Beaver “O” extra flexibility.
(08-Ore. St. 19-AZ. 17...A.19-17 O.33/166 A.41/139 O.20/32/0/224 A.16/22/0/158 O.0 A.0)
(08-Osu +2' 19-17 07-OSU -3 31-16 06-Osu -2' 17-10...SR: Arizona 20-11-1)
ADDED GAMES
La. Monroe 24 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 23—Howard Schnellenberger’s FAU
used to getting roughed up by the big boys (Nebraska & South Carolina did the
honors TY) before straightening itself in Belt play. But recent Owl matchups vs.
ULM have gone down to the wire, and Warhawks won’t blink after their own trips
to Texas & Arizona State. ULM’s capable 2ndary a good match for FAU QB Rusty
Smith, and note Charlie Weatherbie 10-2 last 12 as Belt road dog.
(08-Fau 29-LA.-MON. 28...23-23 L.36/155 F.30/151 F.28/39/2/267 L.22/29/1/216 F.1 L.1)
(08-Fau -2 29-28 07-Ulm +6 33-30 (OT) 06-Fau +14 21-19...SR: La.-Monroe 3-2)
*NEBRASKA 37 - La.-Lafayette 3—Brutal late loss last week for Nebraska at
Virginia Tech. But Huskers likely to be re-inflated by unprecedented 300th
straight home sellout crowd, with NU wearing 1962 throwback uniforms. Lafayette
should oblige with its marginal offense (10 ppg in two FBS games). Huskers 4-
1 vs. spread nonconference under Bo Pelini, except for nemesis VT.
(FIRST MEETING)
NAVY 42 - Western Kentucky 9—After already dealing with rough Ohio State
& Pitt on road, Navy will feel like it’s on a date with Megan Fox vs. FBS baby WKU,
whose new “pro style” offense more resembles a college version of the St. Louis
Rams after getting humbled by FCS Central Arkansas last week. Fun time for
Mid option vs. Tops’ rush “D” allowing whopping 275 ypg. (FIRST MEETING)
ARKANSAS STATE 34 - Troy 28—Trojans have had ASU’s number lately,
and Troy sr. QB Levi Brown (413 YP last week!) capable of picking apart a
defense. Still, rested Red Wolves own resourceful vet QB in sr. Leonard, the best
RB on field in sr. Arnold (1000+ YR in each of his first 3 seasons), and 10 victories
in their last 12 at Jonesboro.
(08-TROY 35-Ark. St. 9...A.19-17 A.45/160 T.30/156 T.15/24/0/181 A.17/32/2/172 T.0 A.1)
(08-TROY -11' 35-9 07-Troy -5 27-0 06-Asu +8 33-26...SR: Arkansas State 6-4)
*Middle Tennessee State 34 - NORTH TEXAS 23—Check status of Mean
Green starting QB Riley Dodge (separated non-throwing shoulder), who (luckily
for him) sat out last week’s beatdown at Bama. Unless Dodge back in action,
UNT has little hope of trading points against Middle’s dynamic new spread
offense & grooving Blue Raider jr. QB Dasher.
(08-MTSU 52-N. Tx. 13...M.24-20 M.28/237 N.36/143 M.20/36/2/252 N.25/39/0/221 M.1 N.3)
(08-MTS -20 52-13 07-Mts -13 48-28 06-Mts +4 35-0...SR: North Texas 5-3)
*Toledo 31 - FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 26—Toledo dropping in class and
looking for a little revenge for last season’s upset home loss. FIU has covered
first two TY, but Panthers were getting double-digits in both, and their 117thranked
attack won’t keep pace with high-octane Rocket offense that will put up
points after being bottled up by motivated Ohio St. last week.
(08-Fla. Intl. 35-TOLEDO 16...T.20-12 F.45/141 T.31/94 T.27/46/1/208 F.6/13/0/98 F.0 T.3)
(08-Florida Intl. +19' 35-16...SR: Florida Intl. 1-0)
NFL ANALYSIS
KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA by 17 over San Francisco
DENVER by 12 over Oakland
OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Buffalo game
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Tennessee 17 - NY JETS 12—It’s still a bit early to hit the panic button in
Tennessee (lost first two by FG each). Jeff Fisher knows the odds of reaching
the playoffs after an 0-3 start are slim, at best. So, expect kamikaze effort from
Titans, who will present a more-menacing infantry dimension (Chris Johnson
197 YR last week vs. Texans) than the Houston & New England spreadoriented
attacks that Rex Ryan’s defense stuffed the first two weeks. Not sure
still-learning rookie Mark Sanchez ready to exploit Tennessee from the air as
did Texans’ Schaub last week.
(08-Jets 34-TENN. 13...N.28-16 N.39/192 T.11/45 T.21/39/0/236 N.25/32/1/217 N.1 T.1)
(08-NY Jets +5' 34-13...SR: Tennessee 22-16-1)
HOUSTON 30 - Jacksonville 20—Amazing how the Houston offense got
back in gear once Matt Schaub (4 TDP at Tennessee) was able to relocate
Andre Johnson (10 recs., 149 yds., 2 TDs vs. Titans), confirming reports that
Gary Kubiak is one of the best at exploiting an advantage once identified. Not
sure Jag pass defense will fare much better after allowing Kurt Warner (24 of
26!) to nearly pitch a “perfect game” last week. Jax offense missing the balance
and dimensions RB Fred Taylor long provided, and hungry Texan tackle-machine
MLB DeMeco Ryans (17 Ts so far) well-suited to track Jag playmaker “MJD.”
(08-JAC. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0)
(08-HOU. 30-Jack. 17...J.21-18 H.26/126 J.26/126 J.25/35/1/262 H.14/25/1/200 H.0 J.2)
(08-JACKSONVILLE -7 30-27 (OT), HOUSTON -3 30-17...SR: Houston 8-6)
PHILADELPHIA 24 - Kansas City 17—K.C. pretty sure Andy Reid is going
use Michael Vick this week, but in which situations and which role, as Vick is
reportedly armed with about a 10-play package. And, with Jeff Garcia added to
the mix, the Philly QB logjam is an issue, at least until Donovan McNabb is
100%, and maybe even then. At least Todd Haley’s Kansas City QB situation
is more stable with Matt Cassel back in action, although Chiefs’ offense not
going anywhere until Larry Johnson (only 2.8 ypc) finds room to run. Still,
Chiefs were covering both their games TY as of the two-minute warning!
(05-Philadelphia +1' 37-31...SR: Phila. 3-2)
BALTIMORE 27 - Cleveland 10—Eric Mangini’s mind games apparently not
helping the performance of Brady Quinn, who could be excused for looking over
his shoulder to see if Derek Anderson is warming up. But scouts insist a bigger
concern for Cleveland is skill-position weaponry that’s far below NFL standards
(RB Jamal Lewis past his sell-by date, top WR Braylon Edwards erratic, TE
Kellen Winslow traded). No such concerns at Baltimore, with three solid RBs
and Joe Flacco’s rapid maturation allowing John Harbaugh to open up the
offense (35 ppg first 2!).
(08-BALT. 28-Cle. 10...B.21-11 B.44/151 C.15/73 B.13/19/2/122 C.14/37/3/96 B.0 C.0)
(08-Balt. 37-CLE. 27...B.21-14 B.41/193 C.23/64 B.17/29/0/236 C.17/33/1/210 B.0 C.1)
(08-BALTIMORE -2' 28-10, Baltimore +1' 37-27...SR: Baltimore 13-7)
NY Giants 27 - TAMPA BAY 16—Tampa Bay rookie HC Raheem Morris
hungry for his first victory. But injuries in his OL are not good vs. the NYG pass
rushers when QB Leftwich (3 ints. last week) has virtually no mobility. N.Y.’s
young WRs Manningham & Steve Smith (10 catches each vs. Dallas) “arriving”
as management had hoped. Bucs’ secondary leaking in new defensive
scheme. And you know the Giant defensive front will be more conscientious vs.
the run after 251-yard allowance in Dallas. G-men an impressive 9-3 recently
as road favorite.
(07-NY Giants +3 24-14 (Playoffs)...SR: NY Giants 11-6)
Washington 22 - DETROIT 10—Despite allowing 72 total points vs. explosive
Saints & upgraded Vikings in first two weeks, NFC North sources say there’s a
lot more coaching going on TY under new Detroit Schwartz than a year ago,
especially on defense. Expect Lions to stop their extended skid before they get
to the all-time NFL losing streak of 26 set by John McKay’s 1976-77 Bucs. But
don’t look for that victory vs. the robust Washington “D,” further fortified by
Albert Haynesworth’s run-stuffing & penetration in the middle. Beleaguered
Skin QB Campbell (just 1 TDP) gets away from the D.C. boo-birds this week.
(08-Wash. 25-DET. 17...W.22-13 W.33/135 D.15/57 W.23/28/0/304 D.21/35/0/217 W.1 D.0)
(08-Washington -7' 25-17...SR: Washington 30-10)
Green Bay 23 - ST. LOUIS 20—Official home debut for Steve Spagnuolo’s
Rams, who appear to be building a respectable defense with the likes of
pressuring DEs Chris Long & Leonard Little; LBs Will Witherspoon, James
Laurinaitis & David Vobora; and hard-hitting S Oshi Atogwe. The offense has
scored only 7 points, but QB Marc Bulger is avoiding interceptions, while G.B.
QB Rodgers (10 sacks!) has been battered so far TY behind the Pack’s
revamped OL. Cards’ Steve Jackson likely to easily out-rush G.B. counterparts.
(07-Green Bay -7' 33-14...SR: St. Louis 46-42-2)
*** MINNESOTA 27 - San Francisco 10—Official home debut for Brett
Favre with the horn-helmeted horde. And even though he is still getting the
kinks out after missing most of camp, this is a Terrible matchup (with a capital
T) for run-oriented S.F. and its dearth of big plays from its WRs (top WR Isaac
Bruce 4 recs., 35 yards last week). Thanks greatly to the “Williams Wall,” Minny
has led the league in rush defense from 2006-08. 49er Frank Gore rushed for
207 yards last week vs. Seattle, but only 30 on the road in Week One at
Arizona. Adrian Peterson will have an easier time now that Favre is gaining
rapport with underrated receivers.
(07-Minnesota -8' 27-7...SR: San Francisco 22-20-1)
NEW ENGLAND 27 - Atlanta 26—With its defense in transition and QB
position dealing with Tom Brady’s injury/rehab/return, the Pats have only
infrequently surpassed oddsmakers’ expectations, with a 3-14 home spread
mark last 17. Now, top ILB Jerod Mayo (sprained knee), the signal caller on
defense, is out, a loss that Atlanta RB Michael Turner & TE Tony Gonzalez can
exploit. Return of “Matty Ice” Ryan (BC product) to Boston, and you can be sure
that Falcons’ emerging DE Kroy Biermann will be looking up Samuel Adams!
Pats “over” 7 of last 9 overall.
(05-New England +2 31-28...SR: Atlanta 6-5)
SEATTLE 23 - Chicago 17—Can the relentless Chicago DL hassle the aging
and bruised Matt Hasselbeck (check rib injury) enough to overcome the host
while QB Jay Cutler works through his “destruct” mode? Can’t count on the
young QB turning that trick in his first visit to noisy Qwest Field, which has been
a graveyard for many a more careful QB. Reconstructed Chicago OL might
need a few more games before it is abel to free Matt Forte (84 YR TY) on a
consistent basis. Seattle QBs have a new “BFF” in the reliable T.J.
Houshmandzadeh (10 recs. TY).
(07-SEATTLE -5' 30-23...SR: Seattle 7-4)
*** OVER THE TOTAL New Orleans 35 - BUFFALO 27—In a shootout, it’s
tough to go against in-the-groove Drew Brees (now 9 TDP) without plenty of
good reasons. Can’t find enough of them in Buffalo, although Bills overcame
the depression of their late loss at Foxborough to jump on the rebuilding Bucs
last week, with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt getting T.O. involved (3 for
52 receiving; 1 for 13 rushing). Buffalo will score, but likely not enough vs. the
much-improved, Darren Sharper (3 ints. already)-directed N.O. defense.
Saints “over” 17-6 last 23.
(05-N. ORL -1 19-7 at San Antonio...SR: EVEN 4-4)
SAN DIEGO 24 - Miami 13—Miami does not have a good overall history on its
relatively infrequent trips to the west coast. And it’s hard to see Dolphins
outscoring S.D. in this one now that Chargers’ backup OLmen C Mruczkowski
& G Dombrowski played fairly well vs. the rugged Baltimore front. S.D. seeking
a little revenge for LY’s trip to Florida, limited Dolphin aerial game not the type
to burn the burnable safeties in the Charger secondary. Even if L.T. still limping,
Bolts QB Rivers has enough weapons to prevail.
(08-MIAMI 17-S. Diego 10...M.23-10 M.40/167 S.19/60 M.22/29/0/223 S.13/28/0/142 M.1 S.0)
(08-MIAMI +6' 17-10...SR: Miami 14-12)
Pittsburgh 26 - CINCINNATI 10—Steelers have repeatedly used their
substantial fundamental edges to be the kings of the “Queen City,” winning the
last eight meetings (7-0-1 vs. the spread). Moreover, Cincy’s new OL combo is
likely to spell D-E-A-T-H vs. the Pittsburgh 3-4 zone blitz once again. HBO’s
“Hard Knocks” show revealed the scattered ineptitude and poor communication
that has made the Bengals the “Bungles” over the years. Game has been sold
out thanks in great part to all the Steeler fans who will attend.
(08-Pitt 38-CINCY 10...P.20-16 P.27/125 C.22/84 P.20/31/0/250 C.24/39/0/128 P.0 C.1)
(08-PITT 27-Cincy 10...P.20-11 P.37/121 C.20/43 P.17/30/0/243 C.20/37/1/165 P.1 D.0)
(08-Pittsburgh -9 38-10, PITTSBURGH -11 27-10...SR: Pittsburgh 48-30)
*** Denver 22 - OAKLAND 10— Quick, how many people figured both
Oklahoma and Southern Cal each having losses before Josh McDaniels’
Denver? Even though the Broncs not scoring many style points with Kyle Orton
at the controls, he’s mostly keeping the clock and chains moving with a
succession of short, low-risk pass routes, and now-healthy rookie RB
Knowshon Moreno (17-75 last week) is providing a little pop. Insiders
impressed with Mike Nolan’s new 3-4 defense that’s gaining confidence and not
blowing assignments like LY. If Raiders chalk, note 0-7 mark last 7 in role;
Denver “under” 10-4 last 14.
(08-Denver 41-OAK. 14...D.24-15 O.31/150 D.34/142 D.16/25/0/299 O.17/26/0/167 D.0 O.1)
(08-Oak. 31-DENVER 10...D.23-18 O.41/158 D.28/115 D.16/37/1/204 O.11/12/0/160 O.0 D.1)
(08-Denver -3 41-14, Oakland +8' 31-10...SR: Oakland 56-41-2)
*ARIZONA 30 - Indianapolis 26—Thirty-eight-year-old Kurt Warner was
semi-magnificent in hitting 24 of 26 passes on the road last week at
Jacksonville, with 17 of the completions going to WR super-trio Fitzgerald,
Boldin & Breaston. RB Beanie Wells also got into the picture with 7 for 44
rushing, but will be sleeping with a football all week after two fumbles. After
blowing their home opener vs. S.F., Cards eager to bring supreme effort vs. former
Super Bowl champ Indy, trying to trade points with host despite changes in its OL
and receiver corps. Arizona 14-5 SU home L2+Ys; over 11 of 13. TV—NBC
(05-INDIANAPOLIS -7 17-13...SR: Indianapolis 7-6)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
*DALLAS 31 - Carolina 19—Jake Delhomme (308 YP, only 1 int.) got back on
track to a degree last week in Atlanta, but the defense could not handle Matt
Ryan (21 of 27) and the Panthers trailed virtually wire to wire. However,
Cowboys—with 251 YR vs. the Giants—showed they can control games, if only
Tony Romo can avoid careless throws. Would rather trust Romo than
Delhomme at this stage, and Dallas appears to have a better overall supporting
cast if the impressive Cowboy RBs outduel the opposing Wlliams-Stewart
combo. Panthers 8-1 “over” last 9. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Dallas -10' 20-13...SR: Dallas 7-3)
