Burns
I'm taking the points with FLORIDA STATE. The Cougars have gotten off to a great start. In Week 1, they were fortunate that Oklahoma QB Bradford went down with an injury and they knocked off the Sooners. They carried that momentum into last week's game and crushed Tulane. That's caused this week's line to be higher than a touchdown vs. a much tougher opponent. I feel that provides us with excellent value on the visiting Seminoles. Yes, the 'Noles are just 1-1 SU and they admittedly haven't been as impressive as BYU. However, that loss came by only four points in a game in which they were leading in the fourth quarter. It also came vs. a Miami team which just completely outclassed a highly ranked G-Tech team on Thursday night football. In other words, maybe that loss wasn't quite so bad afterall. Also, while BYU was all "pumped up" from the Oklahoma win, leading to the beating of Tulane, Florida State was "deflated" from the Miami loss. That led to a less than impressive 10 point win over Jacksonsville State. Lets not forget that the Noles, who have now had plenty of time to recover from the Miami loss, haven't started 1-2 in 20 years. Last week's results help us in two ways here. For starters, we're getting a better line than we would have if the Seminoles had won in a blowout and BYU had won in a close game. Additionally, while this is a very big game for both teams, it may have been easier for the Noles to work extra hard in practice than it would have been for the Cougars, who may be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit. While the Noles are practically never road underdogs in this range, the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS (6-6 SU) the last dozen times that they were home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. It's also worth pointing out that the Seminoles are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times they played a road game with a total ranging between 52.5 and 56. FSU QB quarterback Christian Ponder said this of the game: "It's good timing. We can put those two games in the past, and we have a great opportunity this week. This could really be a changing factor for the rest of the season..." While I respect the Cougars, I expect a close game and won't be shocked if the Noles spoil their National Championship dreams. *8<!-- / message -->