Saturday 08/01/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Winnipeg vs. Toronto 1pm

Play under the total (44.5)

These two played a 19-5 game earlier this year and the last 7 meetings have gone under the total. Winnipeg has 12 unders and 2 overs in their last 14 on the road and Toronto has 25 unders and 11 overs in their last 36 Saturday games. Look for an under on Saturday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs vs. Florida Marlins

Chicago Cubs -150

The Cubs have the edge behind Carlos Zambrano tonight. Big Z has been lights out of late. The Cubs are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of just 2.41. Big Z has also been one of the most dominant road starters in the league in recent years, going 14-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons with the Cubs winning by an average score of 5.4 to 2.8 in these games. Plus, the Cubs are 7-0 in Zambrano's last 7 starts vs. the Marlins. The Marlins are 5-18 in their last 23 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 1-8 in their last 9 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150, and 1-5 in Badenhop's last 6 starts as an underdog. Bet the Cubs for a unit.

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Still on a 16-8 free-play run despite last night’s tough one-run loss by the Orioles to the Red Sox. For Saturday’s freebie, I’m going to switch things up and look at a baseball total, playing the Cardinals-Astros contest UNDER the posted price.

Obviously this is a very low number – matching the lowest on the board today – but it’s for good reason: The starting pitchers are Chris Carpenter (9-3, 2.19 ERA) and Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.65 ERA). In addition to his sensational overall numbers, Carpenter is 5-1 with a paltry 1.76 ERA at home, he’s 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in day games and over his last five outings, the former Cy Young winner has given up a total of seven runs in 36 innings (1.75 ERA), including just one run in 15 innings at home.

Believe it or not, though, as incredible as Carpenter has been lately, Rodriguez has been even better. In fact, he’s been virtually untouchable over his last five starts, giving up just three runs total, also in 36 innings. That equates to a microscopic 0.75 ERA). That includes three road starts in which the lefty has allowed two runs in 20 innings (0.90 ERA). During this six-start stretch, Rodriguez has a 34-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and two of the three runs he gave up came on solo homers.

Rodriguez has faced St. Louis twice this year, giving up four runs on nine hits in 13 innings (2.77 ERA), including a 3-0 loss at Busch Stadium, and he’s got a 1.58 ERA in his last seven starts against the Redbirds. Meanwhile, Carpenter faced the Astros less than two weeks ago in Houston and allowed just two runs in eight innings, and he’s got a 2.87 lifetime ERA against the Astros.

Throw in the fact that the under is 16-6-1 in the last 23 meetings between these rivals, 9-2 in the last 11 clashes in St. Louis, 4-1-1 in Rodriguez’s last six starts against the Cardinals, 5-1 in Carpenter’s six home starts this year and 13-1 in Carpenter’s last 14 Saturday outings, and I’ll confidently play this one low. Look for a 3-1 final score.
5♦ ASTROS-CARDINALS UNDER (BASED ON A 1♦ TO 10♦ SCALE)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon
Now on a 34-22 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the LA Angels/Minnesota match up...

After storming back last night to win 11-5 in extra innings, collecting an total of 19 hits along the way, I can understand why bettors are blindly jumping aboard the Angels in this contest. However, I couldn't disagree more, as I see a major pitching mismatch, along with a bit of a letdown spot here for the Halos. Read on...

Yes, there's no question the Angels are hot, going 11-2 over their L13 games, but they face plenty of obstacles in this match up. First, they're going to have to overcome what looks to be another difficult start for southpaw Joe Saunders, who's 0-2 with a disgusting 9.39 ERA in his L6 starts! His 10 hits allowed at home against Cleveland is a BAD sign against a Twins team that hits lefties extremely well at the Metrodome, averaging 5.9 runs per game, batting .287 in the process! Also, its no secret the Twinkies are an outstanding 12-3 vs lefties at home under the lights this season!

Then there's the youngster Anthony Swarzak, who's 1-1 with a solid 3.50 ERA over his L3 starts! Included in those three starts is an impressive win at Angel Stadium July 26th, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits over 6 2/3 strong innings! It won't be easy to slow this Halos offense in consecutive starts, but you can rest-assured he'll get plenty of support as the Twins tear into the lefty Saunders tonight.

Bottom line, its never easy to go against a team as hot as the Angels are right now, but situationally this is a tough spot: A. Coming off a huge come-from-behind win last night (letdown). And B. An unfavorable pitching match up (lefty at Metrodome under the lights). In the end, it's a bit pricey, but the Twins are the play here.

Take Minnesota behind Swarzak over the LA Angels and Saunders in this MLB match up.
3♦ MINNESOTA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Florida Marlins

Chicago Cubs -155

On Saturday the free 11-2 system play is on the Chicago Cubs.Game 911 at 7:10 eastern.The Cubs fit a solid system tonight that plays on road favorites of -140 or higher off a road favored loss if they scored 2 runs or less and our opponent is off a home dog win, scored 5 or more runs and had no more than 1 error.This system is 11-2 and plays on the Cubs tonight.Chicago is 10-2 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 over the past 3 years and they are averaging over 6 runs per game while hitting over .300 over the past 7 games.Tonight they send their ace Carlos Zambrano to the mound.Zambrano has a fine 3.18 road era this year and is 5-2 with a 3.48 era vs the Marlins.Florida has Burke Badenhop making just his second start this year.Based on the system and the pitching matchup Ill lean with the Cubs here tonight.For the Late phones its an exciting day as we open the month of August with a Double System totals play from a 12-1 and 9-1 system.I also have a side play from a system that is also 12-1 and wins by an average 6-2 score.For the Bonus Play take the Cubs.bol

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence MLB - Saturday 8/1
Play On: L.A. Dodgers w/Wolf vs Lowe

Note: The Dodgers and Braves resume their weekend series Saturday afternoon when Randy Wolf meets Derek Lowe at Turner Field in Atlanta. Wolf enters with wins in 10 of his last 15 team starts and is 14-3 in his last 17 efforts in August. On the flip side, Los Angeles has come up a winner in 17 of its last 22 games on Saturdays while Atlanta is just 1-8 of late on Saturdays. With that we'll look for Randy to come up dandy as a live dog here today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese Blue Line Club MLB FOR SATURDAY 8/1/09

Arizona at Ny Mets (7:10pm)
Arizona starter Max Scherzer has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Arizona is 7-1 vs. teams with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 their last 4 Saturday games and they are 4-0 their last 4 games as road favorites. New York is 3-7 their last 10 games as home underdogs and they are 6-13 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Mets are 5-12 in Game 2 of a series and they are 3-8 in the last 11 starts made by Oliver Perez. PLAY ON ARIZONA - (Scherzer vs. Perez)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees -150

After 2 straight losses the red hot Yanks have cooled off, but rest assured they come into Saturday with their ears pinnerd back, and ace hurler A.J. Burnett on the hill who is 10-5 on the year and has won his last 3 starts with a solid 2.25 ERA, just what the doctor ordered after the White Sox lit up the Yanks and their bullpen for 10 runs Friday night in a 5 run loss. Neother bullpen is in good form, and the Yankees are just 2-6 their last 8 road games and are in desperate need of a road win, and I like this spot. better styarter, overall better bullpen, bench, defense and slugging percetage.

Yankees

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

August 1, 2009

Chicago Cubs vs. Florida Marlins

Chicago Cubs -150

The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in Zambrano's last 7 starts against the Marlins and I like the red hot Zambrano to continue his dominance over the Fish tonight. The Cubs has won each of his last 4 starts and are 42-18 in his last 60 road starts. Few starters are better away from home and when you consider that Chicago is 35-17 in its last 52 games as a road favorite, I'm ready to take the plunge with the Cubbies.

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates +106

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Pittsburgh as they face Washington set to start at 7:05 EST. Should any team, no matter who starts, be a HOME DOG to the Nats? Yes, some would say this is a potential bettor’s trap, but what more than off sets that opinion is the AiS grading. Following my AiS methodology removes all subjective reasoning, which is a dominant reason so many amateur bettors end up losing money. Note too, that the cast of systems, angles, and game analysis serve ONLY to REINFORCE the grading of the play and to provide meaningful insight to why and how the grading was produced by the AiS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 35-8 making 26 units since 1997 for 81% winners. Play against road teams that are average offensive teams scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs/game facing a poor NL starting pitcher posting an ERA>=5.70 and with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season. Washington is just 1-13 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-27 (-17.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 8-28 (-16.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Virgil Vasquez will start for the Pirates and his flash number do not look all that strong, but he has improved greatly with mechanics and his overall approach to pitching – based on published reports. There is also talk that Vasquez may be replaced by Hart in the starting rotation so there is certainly added motivation for him to pitch well against the worst team in baseball. He has a great slider that he throws 26% of the time and will feature it equally to RH and LH hitters. That also reflects the general confidence he has to throw a breaking pitch to a LH batter. You will see him add a solid change to LH batters and replace that pitch with a looping curve to RH batters. AiS shows a 90% probability that he will complete 5 or more innings and should that occur the Pirates then have an 87% probability of winning this game.

Take the Pirates

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

Plays are rated from 2-5*s for strength & bankroll %

3* Houston at St Louis

The Cardinals are a heavy favorite tonight hosting the Astros and for good reason with Chris Carpenter on the mound. But the line on this game is simply too high considering Wandy Rodriguez is on the mound for Houston. The veteran lefty has been on fire as of late. In his last five starts he has allowed 3 earned runs in 36 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio during that time is 34 to 7. In his first two starts against the Redbirds this year he held them to a .196 batting average and .304 slugging percentage. Last year in four starts the Cards managed just a .222 battling average and .256 slugging percentage. In two starts in 2007 it was a .208 average and .340 slugging percentage. The Cardinals are hitting just .228 on the season vs southpaws, well below their mark against righties. So we're backing a Red Hot pitcher who has dominated this club and yet we're getting roughly 2 to 1 on our money.

We all know about Chris Carpenter and how good he has been this season. But did you know St Louis is only 9-7 in his starts this year. He can be beaten and there is simply too many reasons not to take a chance today on the large underdog Astros. Houston has won 6 of the last 10 meetings in this series and are worth a serious look here.

PLAY HOUSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA LONG SHEET


Saturday, August 1

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NEW YORK (6 - 11) at ATLANTA (9 - 10) - 8/1/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (14 - 6) at MINNESOTA (10 - 9) - 8/1/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CONNECTICUT (9 - 8) at CHICAGO (9 - 10) - 8/1/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games in August or September games since 1997.
CHICAGO is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 7-3 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (5 - 10) at SACRAMENTO (5 - 15) - 8/1/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 136-89 ATS (+38.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games in August or September games since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
SACRAMENTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a division game this season.
SACRAMENTO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (8 - 9) at SEATTLE (11 - 7) - 8/1/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lee Kostroski

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds Aug 1, 2009 7:10PM

PICK: Colorado Rockies

The Reds do not have many attractive options on the mound and once-promising prospect Homer Bailey continues to get starts. Cincinnati is 2-5 in his seven starts this season and his ERA at home is an ominous 6.66. For the season his WHIP is 1.53 and he has just one more strikeout than walk allowed in 38 innings. The Reds bullpen has been a strong point for the season but in the last ten games Cincinnati has a bullpen ERA of 4.60. The Reds are just 8-22 in the last 30 games as underdogs and the season has turned sharply for the Reds since the All Star break, going 3-12.

The Rockies have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams Colorado is 36-15 overall in the last 51 games to keep pace in the wild card race. Normally in the franchise history the Rockies have been a terrible road team but this season Colorado is three-games above .500 on the road for one of the best road records in the NL. The Rockies had 16 base runners last night in a 5-3 win that saw many missed scoring opportunities and the bats could do more damage today.

Even pitching with a Coor’s Field handicap in half of his starts Ubaldo Jimenez has posted some of the top numbers in the NL. Three fourths of his road starts have been quality efforts and his ERA away from home is 3.74. Jimenez has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last 17 starts and his mediocre win loss record keeps the Rockies from being huge favorites in a clear pitching mismatch. Colorado’s bullpen has also stepped up with a 3.00 ERA over the last ten games and in that span the Reds are batting .194.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Experts

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
Saturday, August 1st, 7:10 ET


The red hot Angels come off a rare six-run 11 inning win last night (as +145 dogs) and that sets them up beautifully here as the team is a perfect 10-0 the past two seasons when coming off back to back wins by four runs or more. Starter Joe Saunders finds himself as the underdog here, but that's fine with us as the Halos lefty his seen his club win 12 of his 17 starts in the dog role.

Play on: LA Angels

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

StBernadinesports
Lillefty 26-2 run



Seattle / Texas Under 8.5


This one has all the planets aligned for a 3* special play. You have 2 under teams, 2 under pitchers going, and an under ump all in the same game. How sweet it is!!
These two teams combined are the 1st and 3rd place teams in terms of unders in all of MLB. Texas is 61-39-3 to the under while Seattle is 63-33-5 to the under.
King Felix is on a rare bounce back after getting rocked last time out. Before that he has 11 straight quality starts with 10 of those going under. He is 7-1 with a sparkling 1.91 road era.
Tommy Hunter has yet to go over this year. In his L5 starts he has given up 2 or less runs. His home starts are averaging 5 .4 runs per game. That is both teams combined!
The ump Cousins has seen 8 of his last 9 games behind home plate go under, 4 of his last 6 vs the mariners, 3 of 4 Hernandez starts and the only texas game he has done this year. Every trend and there are about 60 of them between Texas, seattle and the ump, favor the under.

 

[Fritzz38]

StBernadinesports
Lillefty 26-2 run



Seattle / Texas Under 8.5


This one has all the planets aligned for a 3* special play. You have 2 under teams, 2 under pitchers going, and an under ump all in the same game. How sweet it is!!
These two teams combined are the 1st and 3rd place teams in terms of unders in all of MLB. Texas is 61-39-3 to the under while Seattle is 63-33-5 to the under.
King Felix is on a rare bounce back after getting rocked last time out. Before that he has 11 straight quality starts with 10 of those going under. He is 7-1 with a sparkling 1.91 road era.
Tommy Hunter has yet to go over this year. In his L5 starts he has given up 2 or less runs. His home starts are averaging 5 .4 runs per game. That is both teams combined!
The ump Cousins has seen 8 of his last 9 games behind home plate go under, 4 of his last 6 vs the mariners, 3 of 4 Hernandez starts and the only texas game he has done this year. Every trend and there are about 60 of them between Texas, seattle and the ump, favor the under.

Do you have his complete play today?
Thanks

 

[LongboardLarry]

Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK NEW YORK CREW

25 DIME RUN LINE RELEASE

Tampa Bay (Niemann) - 1 1/2 Runs over Kansas City (Chen)


BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY BRADY1983 AND MYSELF-------------------GL GUYS

so we should take KC +1.5 +115? sounds good

 

[polo66]

any stan sharp tonight ? THX.
The last 2 lost I think.

 

[RipThe_book]

Any???

Doc's Sports MLB Game of the Week goes Saturday, jump on this 6-unit pick 7 pm start time).

 

[MoneyMagnet]

Rob Rosenhaus Waive the rating? Thanks for everything!