Saturday 05/30/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Davis

I lean towards the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight to extend this series to 7 games, getting back to Cleveland for a chance to give us the series we all wanted to see in the first place... the Lakers and the Cavs. It seems to me as if the Cavs just haven't given full effort for 48 minutes in one single game in this series, yet they've won two games and had huge leads in three of them. I realize they haven't won a game in Orlando yet and have definitely had their struggles vs. the Magic the last few seasons, but this is "do or die" and you have to expect the Cavs realize the importance of this elimination game. For whatever reason, they simply haven't played the type of defense we saw from them all season, and I keep thinking, "this is the game they put it all together"... yet is hasn't happened. Tonight, with the urgency of elimination, I have to think this team will come to play for the full 48 minutes, sending this series back to Cleveland for a pivotal Game 7. Though Cleveland hasn't really had an answer for Dwight Howard, Orlando hasn't had an answer for LeBron James, and he did a FANTASTIC job of getting his teammates involved in Game 5, dishing out 12 assists while grabbing 14 boards en route to a playoff triple-double. The underdog has covered 11 of the last 16 meetings between these two and I expect that trend to continue tonight, with Cleveland winning outright to force Game 7.

3♦ CLEVELAND

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lang free pick winner

Brewers -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

IC Comp/Bonus Play ONLY

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Comp Selection (3 comp winners in a Row)

Take Under 8.5 between the Seattle Mariners @ LA Angels (9:05pm est). The last time these two pitchers met, the score was 6-5 Angels, as they LA won in Seattle. Now, these two pitchers and teams hook up in LA as they look to tango once again. Whenever you see two teams and two pitchers hook up, you can usually expect either the pitcher or the hitters to make the necessary changes. Time and time again, pitchers who got shelled in the first game, will bounce-back either due to making the necessary changes, revenge, or through a bounce-back. Felix gave up 11 hits in less than 6 innings as well as 3 walks at home against LA. I don't expect to pitch that bad today as he bounced-back from that terrible start against LA at home against the Giants giving up just 1 earned run in 8 innings. Now, the team he just faced at home whom he struggled against, is the same team he will try to exact revenge against on the road. Palmer gave up 7 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings at Seattle and if he wants to continue to pitch in this rotation, he needs a quality start today. Thus, given the fact that Palmer desperately needs a quality start today and Felix on the bounce-back, I like the under today for hopefully four comp winners in a row. The Under is 5-0 in the M's last 5 road games and the Under is 9-2 in the Angels last 11 home games.

 

[Risk44]

Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals May 30 2009 7:10PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Kansas City Royals as the host the CWS slated to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-12 making 21.6 units since 2003. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a bad offensive team scoring <=4.5 runs/game facing an average AL starting pitcher posting an ERA=4.70 to 5.70 and with good control allowing less than 1.75 BB's/start. Here is a second system that has gone 48-21 making 27.6 units for 70% winners since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 facing an excellent AL starting pitcher posting an ERA <=3.20 and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. CWS starter Buehrle is 19-29 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. CWS are also 12-27 (-14.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons. KC starter Meche is a solid 7-3 when starting against the CWS with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.298. Buehrle is 6-1, but he has not been lights out against KC batters in his career. For example, Mark Teahan is batting 432 in 44 AB, Crips 378 in 33 AB, and Bloomquist 474 in 19 AB. Meche has allowed a 245 BA in 164 AB versus the current members of the CWS. Take KC.

Thx Cpaw..

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | MLB Money Line
free pick927 OAK (+120) vs 928 TEX
Analysis: Member Play: Strictly a value play here: Brandon McCarthy, though, is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in five games - three starts - against the A?s. He lost to them again May 7, lasting just four innings after surrendering seven runs and seven hits in a 9-4 loss at Oakland. Brett Anderson (2-4, 4.98) is looking to win a third consecutive start. The 21-year-old left-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings after going 0-4 with a 6.03 ERA in his six previous starts. That stretch included a solid performance while not getting a decision against the Rangers on April 28, holding them to three runs - one earned - and three hits in five innings of a 5-4 win. Anderson was impressive Monday, yielding one run and six hits in six innings of a 6-1 victory over Seattle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Fina (Winning Way Sports)

FREE PICK:

Florida Marlins (-115)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

hey cant,,r u gonna be able to get discreet cats horse plays,, hope u dont mind me asking so early,,

if I see it sure thing. doesn't always get posted or only posts 3 or 4 times a week from what I've heard.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic
(523) Cleveland Cavaliers +2

I like LeBron and Company to find a way to pullout the
road win and force a game seven back in Cleveland.
Take the points with the Cavs.

2009 Free Selections Record 80-66 (54.8%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U
Saturday's free selection:
San Diego/Colorado under 11

 

[joe361]

Budin


NEW YORK CREW

Eastern Conference Finals
Game of the Year

Cleveland - Orlando

25 Dime Play

4-1 with NBA plays this season

 

[jackedup339]

Anyone have any pregame coupons?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs are 14-3 in Ryan Dempster's (3-3, 4.99 ERA) last 17 starts in game 3 of a series. The Cubs are also 20-6 in Dempster's last 26 home starts and they are 7-1 in Dempster's last 8 starts after they allow 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers send Eric Stults (4-1, 4.29) to the mound who is just 0-1 with an ERA of 7.94 in his last 4 road starts and he has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 6.45 over 5 starts while lasting just an average of 4.5 innings per start. Stults has struggled to find the strike zone walking 18 batters over just 22.3 innings on the road and his control will get him in trouble today against this Cubs line-up. Take the Chicago Cubs as my MLB Bonus Play for Saturday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocketman

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston comes in with a 28-21 record this year while Toronto is now 28-23 on the season. Toronto is now 1-9 their last 10 games after a win last night. Boston bullpen has a 2.88 ERA overall this year and a 2.93 ERA on the road this season. Brad Penny is 5-1 overall this year, 2-1 on the road and 2-0 his last 3 starts. Penny is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA overall vs Toronto since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LEE KOSTROSKI

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Atlanta Braves

The Braves snapped their losing streak in a big way last night with ten runs from the offense. Atlanta is 11-6 this season against left-handed starters and the Atlanta lineup has posted significantly better numbers against southpaws this season. Arizona starter Doug Davis is 2-6 on the season and though he owns a respectable 3.77 ERA he has struggled with walks in recent games, walking nine over his past two starts, while allowing ten runs. Arizona has lost five straight Davis starts and the Diamondbacks bullpen has not been of great assistance with a 5.19 ERA. With Jon Garland being removed in the third inning last night the Arizona bullpen was worked heavily last night as well.

Atlanta was a terrible road team last season but that has changed this year with a winning record and Arizona is seven games below .500 in home games on the season. The Braves have been a slightly better team in terms of overall record and the Braves have allowed far fewer runs on the season compared to Arizona. The Braves have been playing strong ball overall in recent weeks, winning five consecutive series in May before losing a few close games in San Francisco. Against a much less stingy Arizona staff the Braves should find plenty of scoring opportunities, particularly in a favorable match-up versus a left-hander. Atlanta beat Davis and the Diamondbacks earlier this season in this same pitching match-up.

Javier Vazquez has delivered an outstanding season so far, posting 78 strikeouts and just 15 walks. Vazquez already has six quality starts and he was dominant against Arizona earlier this year. Vazquez has also pitched well on the road with a 3.16 ERA and a 3-1 record. His season WHIP is just 1.14, one of the best marks in the NL. Arizona has not been producing on offense and the key catalyst in the lineup Felipe Lopez appears to still be banged up so this is a favorable situation for Atlanta as just a slight road favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Under

St. Louis is 20-8-1 UNDER their last 29 games and they are 6-1 UNDER vs. lefty starters. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 UNDER on Saturday with Chris Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter has allowed 1 run total in 23 innings of work this year. San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 13 runs in 7 starts this year. The Giants are 8-0 UNDER with Zito on the mound on Saturday and the are 15-5-2 UNDER off a win. San Francisco are 12-3 UNDER after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Zito vs. Carpenter)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Florida Marlins @ New York Mets

Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins came back from Tommy John surgery much better than most experts expected, but he now looks better than ever, and we look for Johnson to key an Under vs. Tim Redding and the New York Mets today.

Johnson is 3-1 with a terrific 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts covering 67.1 innings, and he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and in nine of his 10 outings this year. He has also been fantastic against the Mets, as he has six Quality Starts in seven career starts against them including allowing four runs in two starts against them this season, and he allowed only four runs in his one non-quality effort against them.

Now Redding did not pitch well in his second start as a Met after posting a Quality Start in his New York debut, but that was almost expected. Remember that he just came off the Disabled List to take that first start on May 18, and the second start off of an injury-induces layoff is usually the toughest due to natural muscle soreness. Now that Redding has gotten that stinker out of the way, he should return to his normal level tonight.

Besides, the Marlins have tailed off considerably after a very hot start, so look for both offenses to struggle this early afternoon.

Pick: Marlins/Mets Under 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins

Well we know the story with Johnson and how he dominates the Mets. Redding will be looking for a bounce back against the Marlins as he struggled vs. the Red Sox. Normally I like to take pitchers in back bounce mode, but not here.

I was right when I said Pelfrey would have a dominant performance last night. However I thought the Mets would score more runs against the LHP, but they did not. I think it is a sign of things to come unfortunately for the Mets. With Reyes, Church, and Delgado out they just can't get by with a thin lineup. It will certainly catch up with them today when they face a pitcher they already struggle against.

Lastly, Redding is 1-4 in 7GS last 3 years with a 7.76 ERA vs. the marlins. He loves pitching during the day over that time, but I still like for him to struggle as Ramirez and Hermedia both are hitting over .500 vs. the RHP.

Take the Marlins

 

[backdoorcover1]

we are looking for Chris Jordan if anyone finds it he has a huge run line play

600♦ Run-Line Punisher

Game of the Year #2