Round 2 NCAA Tourney Selections

[truelyhandicapping]

ok next question

so you went 29 and 12. correct.

out of those 29 wins how many would of won with just the norma;l spread, with buying no points.

and how many did you win because of buying the points.

let say for arguement sake you bet 20 games.
normal line you win 12 and lose 8.

lets say you bet same 20, bought points on each, letssay 3, and you won an extra 3 games.
so your record is 15 and 5, but the juice is much higher.

i think you explained this with your 63% winning % to break even. is that correct.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i guess is it worth it to you to pay more juice and win a few more games.

if you pay an extra .70 on the dollar, you have to win 1 and half more games. i think. per.

let me get a calc.

 

[jaypaw]

oh - the question was is buying points worth it, have I lost buying 3 points, and is the juice different.

So far it actually has NOT been worth me buying the 3 points. I can honestly remember only maybe 3 or 4 games (out of the 20 or so games I've won buying 3 points) where buying the 3 points made the bet win. That means that in at least 17 of those 20 wins that I bet 100 to win about 56, when I could have been betting that same 100 to win 90. In other words I lost 34 bucks a game, at 17 games that adds up to $578 DOLLARS. The 3 games would have lost losing me 300 bucks - yet still a net gain of $278 bucks. Considering I'm only up on the season by $309 bucks Id say that betting the 3 points has not been worth it, AT ALL. And the numbers show this.

Yes I have lost buying 3 pts. Not lately but on the season I have lost 12 games buying points altogether. Some of them were only a couple of points but most were probably buying 3 but just flat out lost.

The juice is slightly different... Bodog has a fixed system for buying points - its always -170. However, if they are unsure at all or if they are worried that it will actually make a difference then they will circle the game and not let you buy points on it. Pinnacle varies based on what the payout is for straight bets. For example if they offer Oregon tonight at -7 with a payout, or price of -107 then to buy 3 points the payout goes to -187. If it were at -103 then buying 3 would go to -183. They charge -80 to buy 3 pts. whereas bodog only charges -60


now that I am done lecturing on the ills of buying points and placing any bets that arent even money here is another shot at glory it pays out +312:

4 team ML parlay
Oregon
Connecticut
Texas
Kansas



I just gotta win one of these then I quit I swear.

Its sort of like when you are at the gym shooting hoops and you dont wanna leave on a missed shot even though it could take you 15 mins to sink one with confidence the kind that feel good when they hit the net...

Or like when you are sitting at a table snorting coke and - oh just kidding.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i got it.

12 games 100=+1200
8 gm @ 110= -880

total wins=+320

now buy at 3 poiints
14 games @ 100=+1400
6 gm@ 180= -1080

total winnings=+320.

so for every 20 games you bet at an even amount, that is the key i guess, you have to win an extra 2 games, which basically comes out to 1 in 10. which is what you said at 63%.

i went through my games and i would of easily won an extra 2 per 20. wow. i'm really going to have think about that for next year.

jaypaw, don't ever let anyone tell you it is dumn to buy that many points. i seem some real value in this. as long as you can win those extra 2 games per 20.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

just read your response.

i'm sure you will read mine above.

my math is correct, and if you won three or four more games per 20, you are money ahead my friend.

keep some better records, that is more important than money management. your money management will get better as your figures get better. make sense.

 

[jaypaw]

Breakeven percentages:

at -110 the breakeven is 53%
at -120 its 55%
at -130 its 57%
at -150 its 60%
at -170 its 63%
at -190 its 66%
and at -200 its 67%

I think that is right - isnt it?

 

[truelyhandicapping]

i would of won st joes, boise st, and another just on sat alone. rutgers,g tech,wake forest, g mason, utah a push,

in about 36 bets an extra 7 wins roughly, plus i have been hitting 60% already, damn large coin doing that.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

now maybe you answered this already, what was the buy per point. let me read again.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

ok i read it.

so 60 cents for 3 points, so 20 cents per poiint.

and 80 at the other.

that really isn't that bd.


no i would never do this football, but basketball so many games are lost and won by a basket, it wouold make perfect sense if you do a good job capping games, or have high % of wins already.

 

[jaypaw]

at pinnacle getting an average of -185 to buy 3 points I would have to win 65 games to break even. Thats 11 more games (per 100) than I would have to win if I just bet the -110 ATS bets just to break even.

However like I said every time I win a bet buying points that did not need it I am losing 34 dollars per game.

So if I lose 10 games buying points I have lost (100*10) $1000 - if I win 20 games buying points I've won 1120, BUT if I only need the points in 3 of those 20, that means that I lost 578 dollars (or 34 dollars per game), and won the other 3 I wouldnt have won (168), my net is -410 (168-578), in other words I've lost 410 dollars because I bought points 17 out of 20 times unnecessarily.

 

[jaypaw]

wooow

Im getting tired

this is a good thing to talk about


Talk to you tomorrow


gotta grill up a sandwich and go to sleep

thanks for the good discussion

 

[jaypaw]

it really depends on how many games you are playing and how much you are betting


if you play hundreds of dollars per game and bet thousands of games a season then the loss in juice adds up. At 100 bucks a bet its a loss of 34 bucks per win, so at 200 per bet its a loss of 68 per win and so on. It seems like over time there would be so many games that come within 3 of the spread that you could make up for it - but if its only gonna be necessary in 3 out of 20 or in 15% then...

ugh gotta get food

 

[jaypaw]

terrible situation to do this but I talked myself into it:

Villanova +4 -181

 

[truelyhandicapping]

jaypaw,

i thought we resolved your issue with the buying points thing.

i love it.

since i bet a lot of games i would make money.

it seemed like every weekend out of 50 or 60 games played i would push 3-6 games, plus 3 or 1 point losses, plus a few others.

maybe next year.

sorry i couldn't be so helpful with the villi play. i wanted to tell you buy rutgers way, but i hate telling someone how to play. that then when they lose i feel like shit. do it to my buddies all the time, actually they do it to me.


posting here everyone gets a choice, seems less personal. if that makes any sense.
hey nd-6 tonight.

 

[jaypaw]

wake +6 -183

 

[truelyhandicapping]

nice shot osu lover.

 

[jaypaw]

time for an end to this st joes farce

wake 2nd half ML +129

 

[jaypaw]

2 New Plays for Tonight
Texas -3
Texas ML -156

Also Pending:
Future bet - any team other than uconn or duke to win it all +600
Pending 4 team ML Parlay with Texas and Kansas Still outstanding.

15W-7L in NCAA conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

Round 2 NCAA Tourney 2W-1L (2 for 3)
ATS 5-6 (1 for 1)
BP 1-1 (1 for 2 W of -18x)

W - OKState
W - Wake +6 (-18x)
L - Wake 2nd Half ML


NIT 2W-1L (2 for 3)
W - ND ML -241
W - Nebraska (bought 3 -186)
Nova - BP(L)

Postseason totals:
25W-18L



Overall

117wins-98losses on the season
(57 for 93 ATS)
(30 for 42 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [2 at -186]))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[jaypaw]

Pending:
2 NEW
GT -4
Illinois +9.5 -188

Future bet - any team other than uconn or duke to win it all +600

15W-7L in NCAA conference tourney play

Round 1 NCAA Tourney 6W-10L (6 for 16)
ATS 5-6 (5 for 11)
Parlays 1-4 (1[@+142] for 5)

Round 2 NCAA Tourney 2W-4L (2 for 6)
ATS 1-1 (1 for 2)
BP 1-1 (1 for 2 W of -18x)
ML - 0-1
Parlays - 0-1
W - OKState
W - Wake +6 (-18x)
L - Wake 2nd Half ML
L - Texas -3
L - Texas ML -156
L - 4 team ML Parlay


NIT 2W-1L (2 for 3)
W - ND ML -241
W - Nebraska (bought 3 -186)
Nova - BP(L)

Postseason totals:
25W-18L



Overall

117wins-98losses on the season
(57 for 93 ATS)
(30 for 42 buying points (-170)(4 of these wins were at -184 at pinny [2 at -186]))
(11 for 23 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(13 for 32 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of +142, -235, -150, -130, -163, +150, +290, +350, +180, and +122])
(8 for 21 on the ML: wins of -241, -236, -266, -236, -500, -260, -180, and -235, -450)

 

[truelyhandicapping]

with you on the illini play.

best of luck tonight

baseball righ tarounf the corner.