Road to World CUP 2014 with $100

[Vinagre]

Having a range of vig that works I think is key to your system as too high means less money to win while too low means high chance of loss (draw).

Check This: League and % of draw (current season)

Mexico	37
Italy2	35
Ecuador	33
Denmark	32
France3	32
Argentina	31
Croatia	31
France2	31
Belgium2	30
England2	30
SouthKorea	30
Austria	29
England4	29
France	29
Poland	29
Brazil	28
Italy	28
Russia	28
Australia	27
CzechRepublic	27
England3	27
Hungary	27
Romania	27
Spain2	27
Switzerland	27
Germany3	26
Greece	26
Holland	26
Serbia	26
Sweden	26
Uruguay	26
Belgium	25
Finland	25
Germany2	25
Norway	25
Portugal2	25
Sweden2	25
USA	25
Chile	24
England	24
England6	24
Ireland	24
Ukraine	24
Brazil2	23
Germany	23
Holland2	23
Portugal	23
Turkey	23
England5	22
England7	22
Japan	22
Norway2	22
Scotland2	21
Slovakia	21
Scotland	20
Spain	20
Denmark2	18

As you can see all leagues goes and probably will finish with draws above 15%. The majority above 25%. So hit 75% will be normal. My target its decrease to 15% Losses.
Just a few examples of odds versus the hit rate i need to NOT LOSE with FLAT Bet:

1,30	76,9%
1,31	76,3%
1,32	75,8%
1,33	75,2%
1,34	74,6%
1,35	74,1%
1,36	73,5%
1,37	73,0%
1,38	72,5%
1,39	71,9%
1,40	71,4%
1,41	70,9%
1,42	70,4%
1,43	69,9%
1,44	69,4%
1,45	69,0%
1,46	68,5%
1,47	68,0%
1,48	67,6%
1,49	67,1%
1,50	66,7%

As you can see i have other problem. I'm not using Flat Bet bet "fixed Kelly" always 20%. This way if i will run under 76% winners i will lose money. From 76% to 80% i will win a little but less then betting Flat. To win and hit my target i want to go above 80% and i believe i can go close 85%. More then this didnt seems realistic to me running 100% a system.

The hard its grow the inicial bank. And thats the real challange. After it will be more easy and funny. As i said: if bank didnt grow in the nexts days i will have to change the rules or will never hit my challange cause this system its a winner in long run (i believe) but i havent 100% sure if it can go from 100 to 10k in less then a year.

 

[Vinagre]

Day 11

Thursday, 26 Dec

13:00 -> ENGLAND: Championship -> Watford - Millwall -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank


15:00 -> SCOTLAND: Premiership -> Aberdeen - Motherwell -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,33 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank


19:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> Raja Casablanca - Maghreb Fez -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank

Today card!

 

[Vinagre]

Analysis of the first 10 days

I just posted the selections of this system as i described the way i'm running it. But i'm following others options with the same selection rules (or similars) and different strategies for Money Management. For now i just bet as i described here but i see that, for now, i select the 2nd worst way to go.
Lets see the numbers:

System selection produced 41 games to bet since 16 Dec

Because we play 1 game just after the last bet is resolved we placed 18 bets
Double Chance with average odd 1.35 we profited $4,24 and ahad a Roi of 1,06% (14-4) Money Management (20% of System Bank)
Same selections if we had bet on Home team we had (13-5) +6.02 units (Flat Bet)
Or +$150.79 Roi 23.80% with same Money Management (20% of System Bank)

If we Placed all system selections 41 bets
Double Chance with average odd 1.36 we were down -$1.84 units (Flat Bet)
If placed all at Home team up +5.33 units (Flat Bet)

With just a few adjustments (Rules):

Version Home Team
34 Bets (22-12) +6.43 units Roi +18.9% (Flat) avg odd 1.86 (-116)

Version Over 2.5 goals
29 Bets (20-9) +15.07 units Roi +52.0% (Flat) avg odd 2.15 8 (+115)

I hope that these results continue.

Conclusion:
I will continue working on it for a few more days posting and betting the same way.
If you like this selections you can continue following me or use it to bet Home Team or Over 2.5 goals, or both.
In any case continue comming back here to be informed cause we could be near to a very profitable system.

 

[Vinagre]

Day 11

Thursday, 26 Dec

13:00 -> ENGLAND: Championship -> Watford - Millwall -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank FT 4-0 WIN


15:00 -> SCOTLAND: Premiership -> Aberdeen - Motherwell -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,33 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank FT 0-1 WIN


19:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> Raja Casablanca - Maghreb Fez -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank Postp

2-0 Today, the 3rd game was Postponed

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $118,89
Profit -> $18,89
ROI % -> 4,26%

WON Bets -> 16 -> 80,00%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 20,00%
Days running -> 11
Days left -> 62

 

[ILoveToWin]

Congrats with your wins. I think I can arithmetically compute for the equivalent of Double Chance in my book, given your formula from an earlier post. I just wish you can post your picks a day earlier even though we know you may or may not play the latters (assuming you hit your target early during the day). Thanks.

 

[Vinagre]

Congrats with your wins. I think I can arithmetically compute for the equivalent of Double Chance in my book, given your formula from an earlier post. I just wish you can post your picks a day earlier even though we know you may or may not play the latters (assuming you hit your target early during the day). Thanks.

Sorry my friend, i'm not good in english and tried to understand you with google traduction but still not clear to me what you mean.

I post all selections with more then 12 hours before the kick off.

When my system has more then 1 game i select the ones that didnt play at same time to wait for the end of 1 game before bet the next one.
Lets say you have $100 and the day has 2 games. I bet $20 on first game. Then wait to the end of this game before bet on second.
If first wins, I will go, lets say from $100 to $107 (this is my new bank) now i will bet on second 20% of $107 ($21.4... i think)
If the first game losses i will lose $20 and my new bank is $80 so i will bet on second game 20% of $80 ($16).

Today just have 1 game and didnt advice it neither to bet Home neither Over (just for Double Chance)


Day 12

Friday, 27 Dec

19:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> FUS Rabat - Hoceima -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,41 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank -> ($23,80)

 

[ILoveToWin]

I'm sorry, the problem is with me as I'm trying to familiarize. You are very articulate and good in English! Also in Math. Now I am seeing your pick for tomorrow. Thanks and BOL!

 

[ILoveToWin]

Bad for me the game is not in 5dimes.

 

[Vinagre]

Bad for me the game is not in 5dimes.

Betting at USA Sports and Soccer the best way to go it's with 2 bookies (or more).
1 for USA Sports and other to soccer.
To have just 1 account i belive the best one (just looking for the different offers they have) its marathonbet but to be honest i didnt have account there neither have references to help you about his service.

 

[Vinagre]

How to Choose an Online Sportsbook

How to Choose an Online Sportsbook


After answer last post i had the idea of talk about some advices to people consider when choosing an online bookmaker.

As usual you can google it and will find a few articles. Experient bettors didnt need these advices cause almost all knows the most important rules so this article its for newbies. I will talk a little just about a few aspects.

People needs to open a new account usually for these reasons:
a) Cause its newbie and wants to start
b) Cause needs a bookie with better odds or and different sports
c) Cause wants to bet in more then 1 place (increase limits, take best odds or surebets)
d) To win bonus

I know that we are talking about money and i agree that 1 cent its 1 cent so Solidity and Stability its important but do not spend too many time with this issue if you will deposit small amounts. After select the bookie you are thinking it's the right one for you come to the forum and ask others members his opinin about it.
When you are opening your first account probably you will deposit low amounts to see how it runs. If this is your situation the focus its for things like:
- Permission country
- Deposit/Withdraw Methods
- Bonus
- Different sports
- Odds vs Payout

- Permission country
You need to verify if players from your country are allowed. They will ask you for personall info. Always open accounts with real details!

- Deposit and Withdraw
Select the method you are more confortable with and check wish bookies have it. Need to guarantee the deposit method will not give any problems in future withdraws

- Bonus
When you are opening your first account free money its always good. Talk with te bookie help service to see wish is the best bonus for you. Some years ago, when i started, opened a lot of accounts to check bookies but didnt deposit at that time. Result: I didnt receive any single bonus and, at that time, free money was very good. After some experience its different cause could be better not receive bonus.

- Different Sports
Do a list with sports you want to bet and check the bookies with these sports and leagues. In the next topic you will find a tip to do it.

- Odds vs Payout
Some bookies have atractive layout, are very intuitive, big merchandising but then they have low Payout. Payout its the % they are paying in each event.
(example: In a Tenis game if both players have the same chance to win the correct odd in a 100% payout its 2,00 to player A and the same 2,00 for player B. But you wll not find 1 single bookie paying 100%. So if one bookie pays 1,95 for player A and 1,95 for player B we can say that this bookie have a 95% payout. Higher the payout = better odds)

You can start in one of theses ( good layout, good merchandising but low payout) but soon you will left and search for better. Personally i'm not worried about the layout. I want bigger odds cause better odds will be more money in long run.
To help you in this topic you can use websites like oddsportal (free live score) pick any game, click on teams names and check the different bookies that are offering that game and in the right column see the payout. The biggest one its the bookie that will charge you less for each winner (this means, the one that pays better)

Now remember 4 things:
1. This article and its advices its for newbies and or for small deposits
2. Always, i will repeat, always talk with the bookie before open account (you will feel trust or not in the first contact)
3. Come to the forum and ask for opinions from people whos using the bookie you are thinking about
4. IF YOU ARENT PROFESSIONAL in sports bets NEVER DEPOSIT money you cant lose

As always i'm available to answer this or any other topic here or by private message

 

[indiana]

Vin..........welcome to the RX..........good luck with all your action..........indy

 

[Vinagre]

Vin..........welcome to the RX..........good luck with all your action..........indy

Many thanks! BOL U2

 

[Vinagre]

Day 12

Friday, 27 Dec

19:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> FUS Rabat - Hoceima -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,41 -> ($23,80) FT 2-0 WIN

1-0 Today


Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $128,64
Profit -> $28,64
ROI % -> 6,13%

WON Bets -> 17 -> 80,95%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 19,05%
Days running -> 12
Days left -> 61

 

[Vinagre]

Day 13

Saturday, 28 Dec

15:00 -> PORTUGAL: Segunda Liga -> Aves - Oliveirense -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 (-290) - 20% of my SYSTEM bank -> ($25.70)

 

[Vinagre]

Day 13

Saturday, 28 Dec

15:00 -> PORTUGAL: Segunda Liga -> Aves - Oliveirense -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 (-290) -> FT 1-0 WIN

1-0 Today

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $137,65
Profit -> $37,65
ROI % -> 7,63%

WON Bets -> 18 -> 81,82%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 18,18%
Days running -> 14

 

[Vinagre]

Day 14

Sunday, 29 Dec

11:30 -> TURKEY: PTT 1. Lig -> Orduspor - Sanliurfaspor -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank

14:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> Difaâ El Jadidi - KAC Kenitra -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,39 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank

16:00 -> PORTUGAL: League Cup - Third stage -> Rio Ave - Ferreira -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank

 

[Vinagre]

Day 14

Sunday, 29 Dec

11:30 -> TURKEY: PTT 1. Lig -> Orduspor - Sanliurfaspor -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - FT 2-0 WIN

14:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> Difaâ El Jadidi - KAC Kenitra -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,39 - FT 2-1 WIN

16:00 -> PORTUGAL: League Cup - Third stage -> Rio Ave - Ferreira -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - FT 2-0 WIN

3-0 Today

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $169,89
Profit -> $69,89
ROI % -> 12,01%

WON Bets -> 21 -> 84,00%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 16,00%
Days running -> 14
Days left -> 59

 

[Vinagre]

Many thanks to all who follow this topic.

No more games this year.

We will be back in 3 days (next year).


Cristiano Ronaldo
Lionel Messi
Neymar
Andres Iniesta
Zlatan Ibrahimović
Gareth Bale
Xavi Hernandez
Radamel Falcao
Franck Ribéry
Jackson Martínez
and me....

All the Stars wish you a
Very Happy New Year :thumbsup2:


Report all bets placed from the beginning:



16 -> 17:00 -> POLAND: Ekstraklasa -> Wisla - Pogon Szczecin @ 1,35 -> FT 2-1 WIN
16 -> 19:30 -> FRANCE: Ligue 2 -> Dijon - Clermont @ 1,38 -> FT 1-0 WIN

17 -> 17:00 -> TURKEY: Turkish Cup - First stage -> Kardemir Karabuk - Elazigspor @ 1,32 -> FT 1-1 LOST
17 -> 19:30 -> AUSTRIA: tipp3-Bundesliga -> Grodig - Admira @ 1,31 -> FT 2-1 WIN

18 -> 15:15 -> GREECE: Super League -> Skoda Xanthi - OFI Crete @ 1,35 -> FT 2-1 WIN
18 -> 18:30 -> ROMANIA: Liga I -> Steaua Bucuresti - Astra @ 1,33 -> FT 3-1 WIN

19 -> 8:30 -> AUSTRALIA: A-League -> Central Coast - Wellington @ 1,34 -> FT 1-0 WIN
19 -> 18:30 -> SPAIN: Copa del Rey -> Rayo Vallecano - Valladolid @ 1,33 -> FT 3-1 WIN

20 -> 17:30 -> GERMANY: 2. Bundesliga -> St. Pauli - Karlsruher @ 1,33 -> FT 0-2 WIN

21 -> 13:00 -> GREECE: Super League -> OFI Crete - Panetolikos @ 1,35 -> FT 2-1 WIN
21 -> 15:00 -> ENGLAND: Premier League -> West Brom - Hull City @ 1,39 -> FT 1-1 LOST
21 -> 17:00 -> SPAIN: Segunda Division -> Dep. La Coruna - Numancia @ 1,34 -> FT 3-3 LOST
21 -> 19:00 -> FRANCE: Ligue 1 -> Nice - Evian TG @ 1,37 -> FT 3-1 WIN

22 -> 11:15 -> PORTUGAL: Segunda Liga -> Tondela - Braga B @ 1,35 -> FT 2-1 WIN
22 -> 14:00 -> ITALY: Serie A -> Torino - Chievo @ 1,35 -> FT 4-1 WIN
22 -> 17:00 -> TURKEY: PTT 1. Lig -> Gaziantep BB - Tavsanli Linyitspor @ 1,34 -> FT 2-1 WIN
22 -> 20:00 -> SPAIN: Primera Division -> Celta Vigo - Osasuna @ 1,34 -> FT 1-1 LOST

23 -> 18:00 -> TURKEY: PTT 1. Lig -> Adana Demirspor - Denizlispor @ 1,35 -> FT 3-2 WIN

26 -> 13:00 -> ENGLAND: Championship -> Watford - Millwall @ 1,35 -> FT 4-0 WIN
26 -> 15:00 -> SCOTLAND: Premiership -> Aberdeen - Motherwell @ 1,33 -> FT 0-1 WIN

27 -> 19:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> FUS Rabat - Hoceima @ 1,41 -> FT 2-0 WIN

28 -> 15:00 -> PORTUGAL: Segunda Liga -> Aves - Oliveirense @ 1,35 -> FT 1-0 WIN

29 -> 11:30 -> TURKEY: PTT 1. Lig -> Orduspor - Sanliurfaspor @ 1,35 -> FT 2-0 WIN
29 -> 14:00 -> MOROCCO: Botola -> Difaâ El Jadidi - KAC Kenitra @ 1,39 -> FT 2-1 WIN
29 -> 16:00 -> PORTUGAL: League Cup - Third stage -> Rio Ave - Ferreira @ 1,35 -> FT 2-0 WIN





Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $169,89
Profit -> $69,89
ROI % -> 12,01%

WON Bets -> 21 -> 84,00%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 16,00%
Days running -> 14
Days left -> 59

 

[Vinagre]

Day 17

Wednesday, 01 Jan

15:00 -> ENGLAND: League One -> Oldham - Shrewsbury -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank


17:30 -> ENGLAND: Premier League -> Manchester United - Tottenham -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - 20% of my SYSTEM bank

 

[Vinagre]

Day 17

Wednesday, 01 Jan

15:00 -> ENGLAND: League One -> Oldham - Shrewsbury -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,38 - FT 1-2 WIN


17:30 -> ENGLAND: Premier League -> Manchester United - Tottenham -> Bet Double Chance '1 or 2' @ 1,35 - FT 1-2 WIN

One more Winning Day 2-0
And hit my target of 85% winners
We are in the correct Road to World Cup

Started -> 16-12-2013
Start Bank -> $100,00
Current Bank -> $195,59
Profit -> $95,59
ROI % -> 14,65%

WON Bets -> 23 -> 85,19%
Lost Bets -> 4 -> 14,81%
Days running -> 17
Days left -> 56