Ridin' That Train

[Prof_Factor]

My selection in PEN race 8 expanded .....
Jockey Tyler Conner is set to ride the 2-1 morning line favorite MEGALITH for trainer John Conner.
MEGALITH will no doubt be odds-on. He was claimed 2 back for $4k, then finished 3rd in $8k claimer, and now goes back down to $4k. Should be an easy winner!!

But look at these stats I've compiled of Conner/Conner partnerings at PEN over the past year.
They've had 13 winners .... all over 9:5 odds and all won by daylight.
They've had 10 horses go off at odds below 8:5 ..... and all have lost!!!
Except for the 8/01/2014 loss by a nose at 3:5 (which technically was outside of the year parameter), they have all lost by daylight.


winners:
8/16/2014 won by 1 @ 4:1
8/20/2014 won by 3 1/2 @ 13:1
8/30/2014 won by 2 @ 5:2
10/17/2014 won by 9 @ 6:1
10/18/2014 won by 1 3/4 @ 7:2
11/29/2014 won by 1 @ 8:1
12/20/2014 won by 2 1/4 @ 4:1
4/03/2015 won by 3/4 @ 9:1
4/24/2015 won by 6 @ 5:2
5/09/2015 won by 4 1/4 @ 5:2
5/16/2015 won by 5 @ 9:5
5/22/2015 won by 3/4 @ 5:2
5/30/2015 won by 3 1/4 @ 5:2

when odds are less than 8:5
---------------------------
8/01/2014 2nd by nose @ 3:5
10/10/2014 2nd by 2 1/4 @ 6:5
11/12/2014 2nd by 1/2 @ 2:5
12/03/2014 4th by 9 @ 6:5
12/05/2014 2nd by 3/4 @ 6:5
2/12/2015 4th by 9 3/4 @ 3:5
3/14/2015 3rd by 6 1/4 @ 7:5
4/4/2015 2nd by 3 @ 7:5
5/15/2015 2nd by 2 1/2 @ 7:5
6/04/2015 3rd by 2 @ 6:5


I don't consider this type of pattern happenstance.
Thus, my selection.
If MEGALITH goes off over 2:1 then bet him!!

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$34.60
- 4.00
+ 7.20
======
$37.80


Close but no Cigar.

Today's plays (8-05-2015): $2wp

TDN r#8
4 OLIVER'S BULL (8-1) ........ 3rd @ 5-1

PEN r#8
10 CROCKEFELLER (8-1) ........ off the board @ 10-1

Early post. Good luck to all.

Bank:
$37.80
- 8.00
======
$29.80


Congrats to Conners' for bringing in their first fav in over a year at PEN.

Today's plays (8-06-2015): $2wp

BTP r#6
2 DEL RIO LEO (5-1)

BTP r#7
8 EXCLUSIVE GLITTER (10-1)

Good luck to all.

 

[Hud477]

http://youtu.be/OiUjb2HRxEY

 

[Prof_Factor]

That reminds me of when I lost the 6th leg of a pick-6 by a nose. The horse I used was named Bet On Sunshine.
Had the horse won I would have been the solo winner.
That horse then went on a 1-year winning streak and ran in the same stakes race the following year and won it.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$37.80
- 8.00
======
$29.80


Congrats to Conners' for bringing in their first fav in over a year at PEN.

Today's plays (8-06-2015): $2wp

BTP r#6
2 DEL RIO LEO (5-1) ........ 1st $21.80 $7.20

BTP r#7
8 EXCLUSIVE GLITTER (10-1) ........ 1st $3.80 $3.00

Good luck to all.

Bank:
$29.80
- 8.00
+35.80
======
$57.60


Chugga-Chugga Choo-Choo!! Train finally rolls into the black.

Today's plays (8-07-2015): $2wp

EVD r#5
13 BOOGIE MIESTER (5-1)
if scratched then
5 STREAK AFLEET (8-1)

EVD r#7
7 BURN RATE (8-1)

Early post. Good luck to all.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$29.80
- 8.00
+35.80
======
$57.60


Chugga-Chugga Choo-Choo!! Train finally rolls into the black.

Today's plays (8-07-2015): $2wp

EVD r#5
13 BOOGIE MIESTER (5-1) ........ scratched
if scratched then
5 STREAK AFLEET (8-1) ........ 1st $13.20 $6.00

EVD r#7
7 BURN RATE (8-1) ........ off the board @ 5-1

Early post. Good luck to all.

Bank:
$57.60
- 8.00
+19.20
======
$68.80


With what I witnessed at EVD last night we got lucky getting out of that place with a win.
Bets go up to 10% today. Not comfortable with this format yet but that is what our original post declared.
Passengers are advised to keep their hands inside the car at all times .... we are picking up speed!

Today's plays (8-08-2015): $3wp

TDN r#8
5 UP AND AWAY (6-1)

EVD r#5
3 TOUGH KATIE (8-1)

Good luck to all.

 

[DaddyDank]

Riding with you today, Best of Luck!

 

[OnePumpChump]

Keep your train rolling Prof popcorn-eatinggif

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof.

 

[theMadMan]

what track is TDN?????

 

[Prof_Factor]

what track is TDN?????

Thistledowns

Track abbreviations http://www1.drf.com/entries/racingdates.html

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thanks guys. Hopefully we can keep it going down the line.

 

[DaddyDank]

Yeah, you were awful tonight. One of your horses
came in dead last.

Do you have any analysis for what you do, or do you just post random
picks?

 

[Prof_Factor]

Yeah, you were awful tonight. One of your horsescame in dead last.Do you have any analysis for what you do, or do you just post randompicks?

Obviously you didn't watch the race .... jockey fell out of the irons hitting the gate at the start.

I can post about as in-depth an analysis as you're ever going to read of a race. I usually don't have the time.
I play horses every day, all day. I look at between 60 and 90 races each day and then do an in-depth analysis of the most playable 20-30 races. I spend 16 hours a day analyzing and playing horses. Been then way the last 7 years.
Any picks I choose to post are far from random. I am trying to exclude a value line so I'm also trying to find contending value plays for the forum. Value line is generally required to turn a profit in this game.

Believe me, posting picks doesn't aid my game at all.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$57.60
- 8.00
+19.20
======
$68.80


With what I witnessed at EVD last night we got lucky getting out of that place with a win.
Bets go up to 10% today. Not comfortable with this format yet but that is what our original post declared.
Passengers are advised to keep their hands inside the car at all times .... we are picking up speed!

Today's plays (8-08-2015): $3wp

TDN r#8
5 UP AND AWAY (6-1) ........ off the board @ 2-1

EVD r#5
3 TOUGH KATIE (8-1) ........ off the board @ 3-1

Good luck to all.

Bank:
$68.80
-12.00
======
$56.80


Both picks off the board. Bet reverts to $2wp.
Not posting Sunday. Locomotion will resume Monday.
If I find something worthy, in time, then I'll post it.

Today's plays (8-09-2015): $2wp

-none-

Good luck to all.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$68.80
-12.00
======
$56.80


Both picks off the board. Bet reverts to $2wp.
Not posting Sunday. Locomotion will resume Monday.
If I find something worthy, in time, then I'll post it.

Today's plays (8-09-2015): $2wp

-none-

Good luck to all.

Bank:
$68.80
-12.00
======
$56.80


For those that don't understand how my plays work ...
these are plays that could land at a decent price (potential overlays).
They most certainly can lose and are not "best bet" selections.
If you need to WIN then go find a toteboard with a 1/5 horse and bet it. You don't need me for that.
If you are looking to "make money" with my plays then I suggest using the associated morning line as a value line and don't bet the horse unless odds meet or exceed it. I assure you I will be betting with my own money if a play I posted is over the morning line.
There have been 9 of my posted 27 picks that have gone off over their ML.
They have a combined return of $46.00 for win bets and $24.70 for place bets.
Minus the $36 total invested, that yields a $34.70 profit (1.96 ROI). If that doesn't work for you then KMA.
If you want to make money then that's how you should play my picks and your picks alike.
I will not establish a line for the Train. This is supposed to be fun and hopefully (but not guaranteed) profitable.
I am posting 2 plays. Both races contain false favorites per ML, as do ALL plays I post here.
The 1st play is likely one of the two best horses in the field. The jockey's current physical condition is my only concern.
The #5 is our main threat. Not to mention the million other unforeseeable freaks of horse racing. It's the nature of the beast.
Generally my picks consist of 1 top contender play and 1 longshot type play. If you've been following along you've already noticed this.
There is a reason for this. The original post declared 10% bankroll plays. That means you will go bust with 10 losers in a row.
We must cash enough bets to keep the bankroll alive for the windfall.
The 2nd play is the longshot type play. And like with all longshots, the chance to hit is less but the price should make it worthy of a bet.
This horse should be a monster price and is not without a chance. Albin Jimenez ships in to ride this front runner for Dodge.
It is the only mount he is scheduled to ride. He is also the only jock to win with this horse (3 times last year, wire-to-wire).
Our pick is the quickest horse in here and if Albin can get enough jump on the other speed out of the gate, he might be able to get him home the last furlong.
If you think these look like random plays to you then get a life and go heckle somebody else. Playing horses is serious business to me.
I will not make a habit of posting reasoning so get use to it and trust that if I post a pick then it is LIVE!!!

Today's plays (8-09-2015): $2wp

BTP r#2
7 WAKES WEEK (9-2)

BTP r#5
...only play if Jimenez rides...
8 PEEKABOO VISION (12-1)

Good luck to all.

 

[escrow]

Hey Prof,
i'm hoping that you're just taking some time away because of all the BS and drama in this forum, the last few weeks.
BOL and give us your input!

 

[Prof_Factor]

The Train thread was fun when I started it. Don't know if I'll resume it.

 

[Hndfulprls]

Man don't let a couple douche bags who know little to nothing about horse racing ruin it for you and us. I rarely post, but found this thread fun and informative. Thanks for doing it.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$68.80
-12.00
======
$56.80


Today's plays (8-09-2015): $2wp

BTP r#2
7 WAKES WEEK (9-2) ........ off the board @ 3-1

BTP r#5
...only play if Jimenez rides...
8 PEEKABOO VISION (12-1) ........ off the board @ 14-1

Good luck to all.

Bank:
$56.80
- 8.00
======
$48.80


Today's picks are kind of quick. I'll try and find better ones for tomorrow.

Today's plays (8-27-2015): $2wp

FL r#1
3 WEST BAY ROAD (6-1)

FL r#6
4 REGIFTING (6-1)

Good luck to all.