Colchester vs. Ipswich. Yeah, it seems like a crazy bet considering its a derby and both are in great form. However, a draw gets my money back, so I think its worth a punt. Ipswich are in better form. They've beaten a resurgent Sunderland, defeated Southampton, and drew with Birmingham albeit luckily. That's a great confidence boost; getting points from promotion candidates.
Will be updating my record after I post all my picks for tonight.
Holland Jupiler League
Cambuur vs. Fortuna Sittard +0.5 @ 2.03 - 1 unit Maastricht vs. Veendam (0) @ 1.952 - 1.5 unitsDe Graafschap vs. Den Bosch - Over 2.75 @ 1.893 - 1.5 units
Go Ahead Eagles vs. Eindhoven - Over 3 @ 2.080 - 1 unit
Helmond vs. Zwolle - Over 3 @ 1.98 - 1 unit
Holland Jupiler League
Cambuur vs. Fortuna Sittard +0.5 @ 2.03 - 1 unit Maastricht vs. Veendam (0) @ 1.952 - 1.5 unitsDe Graafschap vs. Den Bosch - Over 2.75 @ 1.893 - 1.5 units
Go Ahead Eagles vs. Eindhoven - Over 3 @ 2.080 - 1 unit
Helmond vs. Zwolle - Over 3 @ 1.98 - 1 unit
Ireland Eircom Premier League
Cork City - 1 vs. Longford Town @ 1.95 @ Betsafe - 2 units
St Patricks vs. Drogheda @ 2.25 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
Shelbourne/Derry City parlay @ 2.18 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
English League One
Yeovil -0.75 vs. Cheltenham @ 1.8 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Swansea vs. Tranmere @ 2.20 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
English League Two
Chester City vs. Walsall @ 2.34 @ 10bet - 1 unit
Wycombe vs. Torquay @ 1.775 @ 10bet - 2 units
Shrewsbury vs. Macclesfield @ 1.70 - 1.5 units
Cork City - 1 vs. Longford Town @ 1.95 @ Betsafe - 2 units
St Patricks vs. Drogheda @ 2.25 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
Shelbourne/Derry City parlay @ 2.18 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
English League One
Yeovil -0.75 vs. Cheltenham @ 1.8 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Swansea vs. Tranmere @ 2.20 @ Betsafe - 1 unit
English League Two
Chester City vs. Walsall @ 2.34 @ 10bet - 1 unit
Wycombe vs. Torquay @ 1.775 @ 10bet - 2 units
Shrewsbury vs. Macclesfield @ 1.70 - 1.5 units
rhinooooo said:
Today brings a loss of -7.1 units. Matches previously placed in these bets, to which I did not publish units yielded a loss of -4.2 units.
Recorded YTD: -7.1 units
Recorded + Unrecorded units YTD: -11.3 units
Hope to be in the plus units soon, and will be experimenting with a few systems in new leagues.
Japan J-League
Kawasaki vs. Oita Trinita - Over 3, 3.5 @ 1.917 @ Pinnacle - 2 units
Urawa Reds vs. JEF United - Over 3.5 @ 2.10 @ Gamebookers - 2 units
Parlay
Grampus Eight / Niigata Over 2.5 @ 2.71 @ Gamebookers - 2 units
Belgium Division 2
Eupen vs. Ronse - Over 2.5 @ 1,926 @ Pinnacle - 2 units
England League 1
Nottingham Forest vs. Scunthorpe United - Under 2.5 @ 1.826 @ Pinnacle - 1.5 units
Kawasaki vs. Oita Trinita - Over 3, 3.5 @ 1.917 @ Pinnacle - 2 units
Urawa Reds vs. JEF United - Over 3.5 @ 2.10 @ Gamebookers - 2 units
Parlay
Grampus Eight / Niigata Over 2.5 @ 2.71 @ Gamebookers - 2 units
Belgium Division 2
Eupen vs. Ronse - Over 2.5 @ 1,926 @ Pinnacle - 2 units
England League 1
Nottingham Forest vs. Scunthorpe United - Under 2.5 @ 1.826 @ Pinnacle - 1.5 units
rhinooooo said:
YTD -22.3 units:cryingcry
I've experimented with picking the over/unders using statistical analysis. The picks have had a high percentage ratings but they were all crap. I think I'll try to stick to the major leagues, and do more analysis on these systems before playing them again.
Not only is the house gone, but the cardboard box I chose to live in is also gone... Soccer betting is tough...:cryingcryJackDee said:
In all seriousness, thanks for the concern mate. But my units for soccer plays have been alot smaller lately, as I feel I'm playing for action recently. Thankfully I'm getting some wins with American Football. That's the excellent thing about the American sports. There are a variety of systems, and analysis on line movements, the spread etc. that make it a lot nicer to cap than footie.
As for the little experiment. Japan, Singapore, Wales, Northern Ireland, and a couple of the Scandinavian leagues are known for their high scores. The bookies obviously catch on to this and therefore increased the total goals. Using betdevil (it's a one month trial), you can gather the stats of how many overs/unders have occurred in a certain league at a certain time. It then produces a percentage of the likelyhood of an over or under based on form and stats. From here, you do a little bit of capping. Completely failed today, but what can you do.
As I was saying before, I have not found a solid system for football betting. I think its too difficult a sport to find a system for, and I don't know where to start in terms of attempting to analyse how a bookies line is formulated. The majority of my bets are on the Premier League, Spain, and Serie A as I follow these leagues and out of enjoyment wish to bet. But, I'd like to be able to find something that helps me cap games so I can bet bigger units, and therefore make better money.
the only way to go in terms of systems is, first know which odds carry the heaviest juice, and then use some database to implement a statistical model, bivariate poisson, bayesian etc. there are some scholarly papers and a lot of work has been put to it with good results. I had the idea of one which was a combination of the above last year but found it was too demanding time wise to do such a thing so I stuck to capping each game with set qualitative/quantitative rules as per usual, and recently due to being even more busy concentrate solely on my home league and europian games involving my home teams. That's not to say I don't have an appreciation of larger statistical trends that can apply, but I've not formalised these into a coherent, and obviously computerized system. Betdevil and such similar software are not way off the track in terms of their estimations but they are way off in terms of being profitable in the long run, firstly because the statistical modelling behind them is not all that bad, but it's certainly lacking in many respects, and secondly and most importantly because they don't take into account factors such as absensies and injuries (which they could) and other more qualitative stuff such as team motivation, the climate in a team etc. etc. (which they can't). Quantum's been testing a system in terms of line movements which I d love to look at, but haven't had the time yet. And of course plenty of systems abound in other fora and sites that range from the downright naive and stupid to the downright criminal incorporating martingales and stake raises and all that jazz.
To tell you the truth after a brief time capping nba bball and that mostly during the play offs, I ve not really dwelved into the american sports, heck I don't even know the rules of american football, so I am not aware of how different systems work there, but I am sure it's no piece of pie there either. Ultimately what I do like about soccer is that although it can fit very nicely into statistical formulations, it can also fit very nicely to some common sense and carefull appreciation of the teams involved, bearing in mind to not overthink a game less you have to.
To tell you the truth after a brief time capping nba bball and that mostly during the play offs, I ve not really dwelved into the american sports, heck I don't even know the rules of american football, so I am not aware of how different systems work there, but I am sure it's no piece of pie there either. Ultimately what I do like about soccer is that although it can fit very nicely into statistical formulations, it can also fit very nicely to some common sense and carefull appreciation of the teams involved, bearing in mind to not overthink a game less you have to.
Thanks for the reply mate.
As for betdevil, I only signed up to get the stats. As I said earlier, playing blindly based on a statistical trend is complete stupidity particularly in football. I attempt to look at the stats to find a trend, and from there on actually cap it taking in the factors that you explained above such as opposition, morale, weather etc.
I've found it hard to find a site that documents large stats on soccer leagues; it is too time consuming to create a paper trail of the various leagues I want to monitor. If you know of any good sites, it would be a great help.
I will try and devote some more time to looking at some of these scholarly papers, and ground myself in some of the statistical models etc. Actually have a paper on sports analysis through bivariate poisson on my laptop, but never had the chance to read it. As you said, it takes a lot of time, and effort, and sometimes I don't have that so end up for action based on poor handicapping methods.
Anyway, here's to at least one of us making some kind of profit out of this sport we love.:toast:
As for betdevil, I only signed up to get the stats. As I said earlier, playing blindly based on a statistical trend is complete stupidity particularly in football. I attempt to look at the stats to find a trend, and from there on actually cap it taking in the factors that you explained above such as opposition, morale, weather etc.
I've found it hard to find a site that documents large stats on soccer leagues; it is too time consuming to create a paper trail of the various leagues I want to monitor. If you know of any good sites, it would be a great help.
I will try and devote some more time to looking at some of these scholarly papers, and ground myself in some of the statistical models etc. Actually have a paper on sports analysis through bivariate poisson on my laptop, but never had the chance to read it. As you said, it takes a lot of time, and effort, and sometimes I don't have that so end up for action based on poor handicapping methods.
Anyway, here's to at least one of us making some kind of profit out of this sport we love.:toast:
Euro 2008 Qualification
Ireland vs. Czech Republic @ 2.00 @ 10bet - 2.5 units
Ireland are in crap form, with an inexperienced manager, and an injury crisis that means 14 players in the squad are out. They have to play with a third choice keeper in League One, a makeshift defense, a makeshift midfield in O'Shea and the recently called up Carsley from Everton. They're a complete mess. Czech are off a 7-0 win against San Marino, which isn't anything to really celebrate as San Marino getting detsroyed is pretty normal. However, their team is alot more solid with Koller, Rosicky, a returning Baros, and quick technical passing game that should be able to dominate the match comfortably.
Slovakia vs. Germany @ 2.04 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Slovakia are a strong and organised side. Germany have a bad injury crisis in defence with their defensive pairing Mertesacker and Meltzelder out. However, I think they have enough quality in midfield, and an organised attacking system that should get them a win. Good odds for me.
Croatia (0) vs. England @ 2.06 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Everyone's jumping on the Croatia bandwagon because once again England have demonstrated how poor they are as an international football team. Croatia are unbeaten at home for a long period. I can't honestly remember how long. The main point in favour of Croatia is their style of play. They have pace and strength, are technicially proficient and play as a team. England, in contrast, are the opposite. McLaren will be hoping that his experiment with a 3-5-2 system will allow England to control the midfield and ensure there are always options on for players to pass the ball. I'm not sure if it will work, particularly without Hargreaves and Gerard in midfield, and an out of form Rooney up front.
Ukraine vs. Scotland +0.5 @ 2.04 @ 10bet - 2 units
Shevchenko will be playing for Ukraine. I don't think that makes too much of a difference as he's out of form. Ukraine are overrated. Scotland aren't a great team either, and if this were a year ago I would jump all over a Ukraine win, but right now they're playing with such confidence and desire. I think they can get a draw out of this game.
Good luck to everyone else, hopefully it'll be a profitable evening for everyone.:toast:
Ireland vs. Czech Republic @ 2.00 @ 10bet - 2.5 units
Ireland are in crap form, with an inexperienced manager, and an injury crisis that means 14 players in the squad are out. They have to play with a third choice keeper in League One, a makeshift defense, a makeshift midfield in O'Shea and the recently called up Carsley from Everton. They're a complete mess. Czech are off a 7-0 win against San Marino, which isn't anything to really celebrate as San Marino getting detsroyed is pretty normal. However, their team is alot more solid with Koller, Rosicky, a returning Baros, and quick technical passing game that should be able to dominate the match comfortably.
Slovakia vs. Germany @ 2.04 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Slovakia are a strong and organised side. Germany have a bad injury crisis in defence with their defensive pairing Mertesacker and Meltzelder out. However, I think they have enough quality in midfield, and an organised attacking system that should get them a win. Good odds for me.
Croatia (0) vs. England @ 2.06 @ 10bet - 1.5 units
Everyone's jumping on the Croatia bandwagon because once again England have demonstrated how poor they are as an international football team. Croatia are unbeaten at home for a long period. I can't honestly remember how long. The main point in favour of Croatia is their style of play. They have pace and strength, are technicially proficient and play as a team. England, in contrast, are the opposite. McLaren will be hoping that his experiment with a 3-5-2 system will allow England to control the midfield and ensure there are always options on for players to pass the ball. I'm not sure if it will work, particularly without Hargreaves and Gerard in midfield, and an out of form Rooney up front.
Ukraine vs. Scotland +0.5 @ 2.04 @ 10bet - 2 units
Shevchenko will be playing for Ukraine. I don't think that makes too much of a difference as he's out of form. Ukraine are overrated. Scotland aren't a great team either, and if this were a year ago I would jump all over a Ukraine win, but right now they're playing with such confidence and desire. I think they can get a draw out of this game.
Good luck to everyone else, hopefully it'll be a profitable evening for everyone.:toast:
there isn't any that's why you can't find it, if there's a chance in a million someone has come across such a thing they should tell me too, best and cheapest bet is to get enrolled to joe bushmal's (sp?) excellent data site for euro footie, football-data.co.uk, you get everything tabulated in excel spreadsheets, some bookmakers, and bebrain odds too recently and it's a very very reasonable price, downright cheap iyam around 30 euros, other way to do this is to have the complicated raw data on sports from betfair, but it will take some time to sort out, I haven't yet, not completely, or get an enrollment at tip-ex which I once did, but since I am not tracking line movements anymore I am not forking out the 1000 or so euros per year, or was it six months, can't recall. Last resort is to go to the internet archive and have it go back to some odd comparison site you are looking for the date the match was played, but I wouldnt advize it.
bol.
bol.
