I don't believe entirely in reverse line movement. Been tracking and got a 88-87 record for games where more than 50% are on one side and the line moves the other way.
However, I do believe that it can be tweaked in a profitable way.
Bet on any team with over 60% of the total bets placed where the line moves at least 1.5 points in the other direction. Record is 20-5.
- Games with 1917+ bets are 18-2-1. In other words, stay away from games with essentially no action.
- Any team with a 2.5 point RLM or higher and 60% is 6-0.
- The high volume games (6537+ bets) are 7-0-1.
- Games over 10K in total bets are 6-0-1.
- Games over 15K in total bets are 5-0.
Here's the query on 60%+ and -1.5 line movement, enjoy! (Note: tracking since 1-24).
<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" height=732 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=521 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 35pt" width=46><COL style="WIDTH: 21pt" width=28><COL style="WIDTH: 117pt" width=156><COL style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=42><COL style="WIDTH: 26pt" width=35><COL style="WIDTH: 30pt" span=2 width=40><COL style="WIDTH: 25pt" width=33><COL style="WIDTH: 30pt" width=40><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="WIDTH: 35pt; HEIGHT: 15pt" width=46 height=20>Date</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 21pt" width=28>#</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 117pt" width=156>Team</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 32pt" width=42>Bets</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 26pt" width=35>%</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30pt" width=40>Op</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30pt" width=40>Cl</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 25pt" width=33>Ch</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 30pt" width=40>Res</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>25-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>79</TD><TD class=xl64>843 Pittsburgh</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>20859</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>84%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-1</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>-2.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>78</TD><TD class=xl64>543 Oklahoma</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>14298</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>84%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-11</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-9</TD><TD align=right>-2</TD><TD>PUSH</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>4-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>73</TD><TD class=xl64>529 Tulsa</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>4570</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>83%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-2.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-1</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>4-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>74</TD><TD class=xl64>534 Syracuse</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>15684</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>79%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-1.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>-2.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>4-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>82</TD><TD class=xl64>559 James Madison</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>2550</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>78%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-2.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>-2.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>1-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>82</TD><TD class=xl64>877 Portland State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>6194</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>75%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-6</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-4</TD><TD align=right>-2</TD><TD>LOSS</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>79</TD><TD class=xl64>563 Central Florida</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>3540</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>74%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-4</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-2.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>28-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>86</TD><TD class=xl64>538 South Carolina</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>6088</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>73%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-7.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-6</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>64</TD><TD class=xl64>618 Cornell</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1917</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>72%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-14.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-13</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>5-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>82</TD><TD class=xl64>787 Weber State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1719</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>72%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>0</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>24-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>86</TD><TD class=xl64>684 Austin Peay</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1442</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>71%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-9.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-8</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>LOSS</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>88</TD><TD class=xl64>619 Saint Louis</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>3210</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>69%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-5.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-4</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>24-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>68</TD><TD class=xl64>620 Michigan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>16186</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>69%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-6.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>4-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>78</TD><TD class=xl64>572 Mississippi</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>2946</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>68%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-3.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>-4.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>29-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>62</TD><TD class=xl64>761 Saint Marys CA</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>19380</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>68%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>8</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>9.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>82</TD><TD class=xl64>530 Xavier</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>4214</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>67%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-17.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-16</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>LOSS</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>71</TD><TD class=xl64>627 George Mason</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>3290</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>67%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>53</TD><TD class=xl64>698 Coll Charleston</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>848</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>67%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-13.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-12</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>LOSS</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>3-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>81</TD><TD class=xl64>718 Kent State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>6537</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>66%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-15.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-14</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>31-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>59</TD><TD class=xl64>587 UNLV</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>5798</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>66%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-10.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-9</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>5-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>52</TD><TD class=xl64>783 Morehead State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1838</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>66%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>0</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>LOSS</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>24-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>69</TD><TD class=xl64>672 Georgia Southern</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1917</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>64%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-13</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-11.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>27-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>73</TD><TD class=xl64>724 Wyoming</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>11157</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>63%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-9.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-8</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>29-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>66</TD><TD class=xl64>714 Cleveland State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>2273</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>63%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-16</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-14.5</TD><TD align=right>-1.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>24-Jan</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>83</TD><TD class=xl64>692 Portland State</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1679</TD><TD class=xl67 align=right>61%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-16.5</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-14</TD><TD align=right>-2.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD class=xl66 style="HEIGHT: 15pt" align=right height=20>2-Feb</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>75</TD><TD class=xl64>521 Kansas</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>23050</TD><TD class=xl65 align=right>61%</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>-1</TD><TD class=xl64 align=right>1.5</TD><TD align=right>-2.5</TD><TD>WIN</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
For you noobs, it's SportsInsights.com where I got the information.