Reverse Line Movement Question

[OnTheHop]

Have been lurking here for awhile and am very impressed with many of the cappers here. Thanks to all of those who give their time and advice.

Can someone recommend a good place to find line movement and percentage of bets on each side? The more research I do and the more I listen it seems to me that RLM is a very good starting point for capping games but I don't know where to find the information.

Thanks for any assistance that can be provided.

 

[tommyjohn44]

Others might disagree...but I don't believe reverse line movement exists. As a good rule of thumb, public money doesn't move lines. Smart money moves lines.

So when you see New York go from -6 to -4.5 yet sites list 81% of wagers on New York...it's moving that way because smart money is being bet on the other side of the line and the book has to counter that by offering a better price on New York to keep bringing in public money. This balances the book and removes a lot of risk for them.

Just one man's opinion though...

 

[OnTheHop]

I appreciate the insight and advice. Thank you.

 

[tommyjohn44]

Also, sites that show wager %'s are just showing you where the public money is. It's not showing you were smart money was bet or at what line. So a team at +6 has a lot of value but by the time you see the movement the line is at 4.5 or 5 and most (if not all) of that value is gone.

 

[glcsports]

Have been lurking here for awhile and am very impressed with many of the cappers here. Thanks to all of those who give their time and advice.

Can someone recommend a good place to find line movement and percentage of bets on each side? The more research I do and the more I listen it seems to me that RLM is a very good starting point for capping games but I don't know where to find the information.

Thanks for any assistance that can be provided.

I track this at Sports Insights. If you have any questions you can send me a PM. Good Luck.

 

[OnTheHop]

I track this at Sports Insights. If you have any questions you can send me a PM. Good Luck.

Thank you. I did send one. Appreciate the assistance.

 

[wvafan3]

vegasinsider is another one

 

[Actionbrett]

Post 2 is correct, no such thing as RLM. Its a tired theory and wont win you ant money.

RLM and 'The Wildcat' drive me nuts!

 

[glcsports]

Post 2 is correct, no such thing as RLM. Its a tired theory and wont win you ant money.

RLM and 'The Wildcat' drive me nuts!

I disagree. I guess it depends on how you apply it. Following the RLM this year in Football I am 72-40-1, and in Hoops so far I am 37-24-1. Also I was +1550 for Bases this year. So I think someone can win money following it. :think2:

 

[Bdub24]

I disagree. I guess it depends on how you apply it. Following the RLM this year in Football I am 72-40-1, and in Hoops so far I am 37-24-1. Also I was +1550 for Bases this year. So I think someone can win money following it. :think2:

Agree.... Betting on reverse games after following college football lines on vegasinsider has been close to 60% this year. NFL has not been as good, but college football has been great.

 

[glcsports]

Agree.... Betting on reverse games after following college football lines on vegasinsider has been close to 60% this year. NFL has not been as good, but college football has been great.

I track at Sportsinsights.
I'm glad there is someone else who agress.

 

[Sawyer]

RLM works BEST in NHL..

 

[glcsports]

RLM works BEST in NHL..

I don't know about "best", but it does work. This year so far it is 31-30 +1055 at $100 per bet. It is like baseball, mostly dog plays.

 

[Actionbrett]

I track at Sportsinsights.
I'm glad there is someone else who agress.

SI shows the amount of tickets wrote not money paid towards the side.

 

[glcsports]

SI shows the amount of tickets wrote not money paid towards the side.

That is true, and that is why the reverse move is key. If there is 70% on one side and 30% on the other and the move is in favor of the 30% it would reason that those 30% wagered more $$ than the 70%. Since the books usually try to balance their $$, they move the line to attract more $$ on the side that already has 70% of the tickets showing you were the big money has been bet. :howdy:

 

[Actionbrett]

That is true, and that is why the reverse move is key. If there is 70% on one side and 30% on the other and the move is in favor of the 30% it would reason that those 30% wagered more $$ than the 70%. Since the books usually try to balance their $$, they move the line to attract more $$ on the side that already has 70% of the tickets showing you were the big money has been bet. :howdy:

I understand exactly where your coming from. Were gonna have to agree to disagree. GL the rest of December.

 

[glcsports]

I understand exactly where your coming from. Were gonna have to agree to disagree. GL the rest of December.

Good Luck to you as well. I hope the New Year brings us both success and profits in our investments. :toast:

 

[Joedogs]

Glcsports,is there any particular time you place bets on the games you wager on.In other word's do you bet within a certain window of time,say an hour or half hour before games wagered upon,or do you pull trigger when you think you have best price.

continued success

 

[quantumleap]

Also, sites that show wager %'s are just showing you where the public money is. It's not showing you were smart money was bet or at what line. So a team at +6 has a lot of value but by the time you see the movement the line is at 4.5 or 5 and most (if not all) of that value is gone.

I agree that sites show public % not smart money. However, I believe public money shows where the square money is and books use this to their advantage.

Books don't always balance money out. How could they? Different books take different percentages on each side yet the lines are relatively the same for all books.

 

[glcsports]

Glcsports,is there any particular time you place bets on the games you wager on.In other word's do you bet within a certain window of time,say an hour or half hour before games wagered upon,or do you pull trigger when you think you have best price.

continued success

Joe, I usually start tracking about 30 minutes before the start of the first game in that sport. I usually check back about 5 minutes before start to see if any late moves happen. Then throughout the day or evening I will check back just before the start of the late or west coast games. I have tried to find an easier way to not be tied to the computer as much but can't come up with anything. The line moves are fluid and you never know when a sharp will bet a bundle right before game time and make the books move, so I just keep checking back just prior to game time. This is especially true in College hoops. I hope this makes sense. If you have any other questions just post them or send me a PM. Good Luck.