Reverse Line Movement 1/13/2009

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Totals have been hot out of the gate at 5-1. Keep an eye out on the ohio state/indiana under. I will make sure to keep track of both ats plays and total plays.


Have to give credit to jaxson for making us aware of that. Before Hogs and I just worked on the ATS
 
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Just to make this clear to people who have not been following the other thread, you have to wait until about 15 minutes to go before you make the play. You could always jump on it now, but who knows if it remains a play 7 hours later.

Not sure I agree with this logic. Is this based on actual data or just your own preference?

Reason I don't follow the logic is that the point is to detect when smart money is on a play. As long as you have enough total bets on a game to make the data valid, if there is reverse movement at 3 pm for a 7 pm tipoff, right there you're seeing that there's smart money involved. Just because it may go back the other way before tip doesn't invalidate this. It could be that the books got so imbalanced from square money that they felt compelled to move the line with the money. Sure, it could also mean that there's smart money also coming in before tip, but at that point, how can you know?
 

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Not sure I agree with this logic. Is this based on actual data or just your own preference?

Reason I don't follow the logic is that the point is to detect when smart money is on a play. As long as you have enough total bets on a game to make the data valid, if there is reverse movement at 3 pm for a 7 pm tipoff, right there you're seeing that there's smart money involved. Just because it may go back the other way before tip doesn't invalidate this. It could be that the books got so imbalanced from square money that they felt compelled to move the line with the money. Sure, it could also mean that there's smart money also coming in before tip, but at that point, how can you know?

This is based on a little over 3 years of using this system...the point IS NOT to detect when "smart money" is a play, the point IS to find when Vegas is willing to "gamble" on a game inflating the line 2 or 3 points in 1 direction knowing that the public will take the line...all the while, slowly lowering it making the public think "oh man, they are missing this one, and now I am actually getting a better line!!!" Some notable RLM games from this past football season...Alabama/Utah, Penn State/Iowa, Georgia/Alabama, OU/Texas...some from last basketball season Davidson/Georgetown, Butler/Cleveland State, KU/UNC, etc. just a few that I can remember off of the top of my head...cowpokes feel free to add any that I have forgotten
 

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This is based on a little over 3 years of using this system...the point IS NOT to detect when "smart money" is a play, the point IS to find when Vegas is willing to "gamble" on a game inflating the line 2 or 3 points in 1 direction knowing that the public will take the line...all the while, slowly lowering it making the public think "oh man, they are missing this one, and now I am actually getting a better line!!!" Some notable RLM games from this past football season...Alabama/Utah, Penn State/Iowa, Georgia/Alabama, OU/Texas...some from last basketball season Davidson/Georgetown, Butler/Cleveland State, KU/UNC, etc. just a few that I can remember off of the top of my head...cowpokes feel free to add any that I have forgotten

Interesting take. So your angle has nothing to do with smart money?

So if what you're saying is true - - what difference does it make if the line drifts back with the money towards the start of the game? Because you're assuming the books want the money going on the heavily bet team, so why would they slow that down by moving the line with the money?
 
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Totals have been hot out of the gate at 5-1. Keep an eye out on the ohio state/indiana under. I will make sure to keep track of both ats plays and total plays.


Have to give credit to jaxson for making us aware of that. Before Hogs and I just worked on the ATS

Why would you been eyeing the indiana/ohio st under? There is 80% on the under in the game and the total has fallen which is standard line move...not reverse line movement. Maybe I'm missing something.
 

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Interesting take. So your angle has nothing to do with smart money?

So if what you're saying is true - - what difference does it make if the line drifts back with the money towards the start of the game? Because you're assuming the books want the money going on the heavily bet team, so why would they slow that down by moving the line with the money?

I have never said anything about the difference with the line moving with the money towards the start of the game, however I will give you an answer...the public places their bets throughout the day, usually with a majority coming in around 5:00 est. time, and as a game gets closer to starting, most bets are in, and those that need to be baited in, are done so...believe it or not, Vegas too will hedge their risk as game time approaches, moving the line in case a smart/sharp plays late...also, for posting, helping, sharing, and common sense purposes, it is impossible for someone to be constantly posting up to the second line changes until a game starts...
 

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Why would you been eyeing the indiana/ohio st under? There is 80% on the under in the game and the total has fallen which is standard line move...not reverse line movement. Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't do totals yet, but a few are using the information to do so...I would like to see a longer trial period prior to joining in...but if you are interested in using that method, yes that is one to look at
 
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I don't do totals yet, but a few are using the information to do so...I would like to see a longer trial period prior to joining in...but if you are interested in using that method, yes that is one to look at

So with totals you go with the move? You use the reverse line movement system just on sides.
 

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Why would you been eyeing the indiana/ohio st under? There is 80% on the under in the game and the total has fallen which is standard line move...not reverse line movement. Maybe I'm missing something.


Hahaha you are totally right! My fault, disregard what I said earlier, sometimes reading a chart all day can make you think you are seeing things.
 

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I have never said anything about the difference with the line moving with the money towards the start of the game, ..

You're right, you didn't, but cowpokes did. He says to wait til tip in case the line moves back against the reverse line movement, which I assume he's saying would make it no longer a play.
 

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Its blue, here is a good explanation that I found on the internet:

Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.

For example, how could the lowly Miami Dolphins of the NFL beat a San Diego Chargers team than many predicted to go to the Super Bowl outright? Or how could a terrible Michigan football team upset a Wisconsin club that was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title?

Well, both of these games had something in common that shrewd bettors could have used to their advantage, and that could have made these upsets both expected and profitable. Welcome to the world of reverse line movement.
\
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.

So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.

This is exactly why I am perplexed at the explanation Hogs is giving for the system. I follow reverse line movement for the reasons set forth in this article. You guys seem to be following a much different rationale. Not disagreeing with it, just saying it's different.
 

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This is exactly why I am perplexed at the explanation Hogs is giving for the system. I follow reverse line movement for the reasons set forth in this article. You guys seem to be following a much different rationale. Not disagreeing with it, just saying it's different.


VEGAS = SHARPS...there are different "theories" I guess, but the bottom line is the Sharps usually play with Vegas...all reasoning in this thread is still sound
 

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35%
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7:00P
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7:00P
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</TD><TD id=score width=62>1/13
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=169>541 Sacramento State
542 Northern Colorado
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>689
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>55%
45%
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</TD><TD id=score width=62>1/13
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=169>537 Georgia State
538 Old Dominion
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>2775
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>48%
52%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>7%
93%
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54%
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-12.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb9_0 width=75>116.5 -110
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</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>117.5 -110
-12.5-110
</TD></TR><TR id=e153117 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e153117', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=score width=62>1/13
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=169>535 Kentucky
536 Tennessee
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>6972
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>49%
51%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>45%
55%
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>60%
40%
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>160 -110
-7-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb9_0 width=75>152 -110
-5.5-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>153.5 -110
-6.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>152 -110
-6-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>153 -110
-6.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>152 -110
-6-110
</TD></TR><TR id=e153123 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e153123', event)"><TD id=info style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" width=50>Info
</TD><TD id=score width=62>1/13
9:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=169>539 TCU
540 B.Y.U.
</TD><TD id=bets width=56>3052
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>59%
41%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD id=oupct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=50>n/a
n/a
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>143 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb9_0 width=75>142.5 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>142.5 -110
-14.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb6_0 width=75>142.5 -110
-14-110
</TD><TD class=linebox style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #faf39e" width=75>143.5 -110
-14.5-110
</TD><TD class=open id=sb18_0 width=75>143 -110
-14-110
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

New member
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
517
Tokens
Just what i was about to say, we will start to see some movement hopefully
 

New member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
239
Tokens
Not saying anything at all, really, and not disagreeing with you. Just trying to understand the rationale behind it. I am very familiar with the rationale put forth in LT Profits' article you posted. Just not understanding the rationale Hogs is saying.

I have no problem with it, and you're winning with it, so good on ya. Just trying to understand your angle.
 

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