A few ones I'm looking at already but one in particular has been on my mind the most. Nebraska +3.5. Here is my simple logic. First to see Nebraska getting in the tourney even at the 11 seed has been bothering me. Not to mention Baylor playing a "home" game in Texas. Baylor was a top 10 team earlier In year then in and out of late 20s. To me,...This game should be Baylor -6.5. Or even higher. Moreover the pub is all over Baylor. I see a chase day for many tomorrow. With all that said, I'm leaning Nebraska pretty hard.
A few ones I'm looking at already but one in particular has been on my mind the most. Nebraska +3.5. Here is my simple logic. First to see Nebraska getting in the tourney even at the 11 seed has been bothering me. Not to mention Baylor playing a "home" game in Texas. Baylor was a top 10 team earlier In year then in and out of late 20s. To me,...This game should be Baylor -6.5. Or even higher. Moreover the pub is all over Baylor. I see a chase day for many tomorrow. With all that said, I'm leaning Nebraska pretty hard.
I can't find that article I used to set my bracket with but do remember reading this to help me but just realized its showing Baylor to win SU and not ATS. Line opened at -2.5 and was bet up quick to -3.5 so I am guessing the value is lost now. Read below what CNOTES posted...
FIRST ROUND NOTES
Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS)
ACC: 4-1-1, Atlantic 10: 3-0, Big Ten: 3-0, Big 12: 0-4, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 1-7, Colonial: 8-4, C-USA: 2-5, Horizon: 4-2, MAC: 3-1, Missouri Valley: 3-1, Mountain West: 4-2-1, Pac-12: 51, Sun Belt: 4-1, SEC: 3-1, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 1-3.
Best team records (SU) in this round:
N Carolina: 11-0, Kansas: 7-0, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Tulsa: 5-0; Arizona State, Ohio State: 4-0, Kentucky 18-1.
Worst team records (SU) in this round:
Nebraska: 0-5.
Best team ATS records in this round:
VCU: 6-0, Iowa State, Saint Louis, Xavier: 6-1, Florida: 5-1, Kansas State, Michigan, NC State: 4-1.
Worst team ATS records in this round:
Nebraska: 0-5, Massachusetts, Texas, Villanova: 0-3, Oregon: 1-7, Creighton: 1-4.
Best conference ATS records in this round:
Colonial: 5-1, Big Ten: 14-3, MAC dogs: 9-2, PAC 12 dogs: 7-2.
Worst conference ATS records in this round:
Big West: 1-6, Big East dogs: 1-4, Ivy: 3-12, Big 12: 4-11.
MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS
Favorites of more than 7 points who are 3-0 SUATS last three games are 19-36 vs. opponent off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. opponent off a SU loss.
Favorites of 20 or more points are 1-7-1 vs. an opponent off a DD SU win.
Favorites of more than 7 points who scored 100 points or more in their last tourney game are 12-2.
Underdogs of 4 or more points playing off a SU tourney win as a dog of 6 or more points are 10-30-1 ATS the last fifteen years.
Dogs of 18 or more points off a DD ATS win are 7-1.
FIRST ROUND NOTES
Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS)
ACC: 4-1-1, Atlantic 10: 3-0, Big Ten: 3-0, Big 12: 0-4, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 1-7, Colonial: 8-4, C-USA: 2-5, Horizon: 4-2, MAC: 3-1, Missouri Valley: 3-1, Mountain West: 4-2-1, Pac-12: 51, Sun Belt: 4-1, SEC: 3-1, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 1-3.
Best team records (SU) in this round:
N Carolina: 11-0, Kansas: 7-0, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Tulsa: 5-0; Arizona State, Ohio State: 4-0, Kentucky 18-1.
Worst team records (SU) in this round:
Nebraska: 0-5.
Best team ATS records in this round:
VCU: 6-0, Iowa State, Saint Louis, Xavier: 6-1, Florida: 5-1, Kansas State, Michigan, NC State: 4-1.
Worst team ATS records in this round:
Nebraska: 0-5, Massachusetts, Texas, Villanova: 0-3, Oregon: 1-7, Creighton: 1-4.
Best conference ATS records in this round:
Colonial: 5-1, Big Ten: 14-3, MAC dogs: 9-2, PAC 12 dogs: 7-2.
Worst conference ATS records in this round:
Big West: 1-6, Big East dogs: 1-4, Ivy: 3-12, Big 12: 4-11.
MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS
Favorites of more than 7 points who are 3-0 SUATS last three games are 19-36 vs. opponent off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. opponent off a SU loss.
Favorites of 20 or more points are 1-7-1 vs. an opponent off a DD SU win.
Favorites of more than 7 points who scored 100 points or more in their last tourney game are 12-2.
Underdogs of 4 or more points playing off a SU tourney win as a dog of 6 or more points are 10-30-1 ATS the last fifteen years.
Dogs of 18 or more points off a DD ATS win are 7-1.
http://www.covers.com/odds/basketball/college-basketball-1st-half-lines.aspx
Use this... and I don't play all overs if game goes under
